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TJ Marta
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  • Daily FX View: Risk-On In Asia After China PMI, GBP Up On PMI 0 comments
    Dec 2, 2013 7:10 AM

    Asia FX generally outperforming overnight while JPY lags, GBP outperforms EU FX, on U.K. PMI.

    • China mfg PMI for Nov. 51.4 vs est. 51.1, prior 51.4; holding in uptrend since 2H 2012
    .
    • NZD outperforming all major FX; NZD/USD view shifts positive
    ..• NZD/USD +0.84% at 0.8184
    ..• NZD/USD View: Positive, bottoming on daily chart
    ...• Change from bearish view established Oct. 25
    ...• Rallying after Fri. doji from low since Sept.
    ...• MACD differential higher from low since Nov. 4
    ...• RSI up from trough since June
    ...• Stochastics at low since July
    ...• Upside technical targets: 0.8407 Nov. 18 high, 0.8415 Nov. 6 high
    .
    • AUD up vs all major FX except NZD; AUD/USD view shifts positive
    ..• AUD/USD +0.23% at 0.9129, session range 0.9108/0.9168
    ..• AUD/USD View: Positive, bottoming on daily chart consistent with bullish L-T outlook
    ...• Holding above 0.9062 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of Aug.-Oct. rally
    ...• Momentum indicators turning higher
    ...• MACD up from near early-Nov. trough
    ...• RSI higher from low since May
    ...• Stochastics crossing higher from near May bottom
    .
    • JPY underperforming all Asia FX;
    ..• USD/JPY +0.34% at 102.79, session range 102.23/102.81
    ..• USD/JPY view: Cautiously bullish; severely overbought, nearing 103.74 May high
    ...• MACD differential at high since Sept. peak
    ...• RSI highest since Feb.
    ...• Stochastics high since Jan. peak
    .
    • GBP boosted by U.K. mfg PMI for Nov. 58.4 vs est. 56.1, prior 56.5, high since Feb. 2011
    ..• GBP/USD +0.12% at 1.6388, session range 1.6362/1.6443

    ..• GBP/USD view: cautiously bullish
    ...• Testing to high since 2011
    ...• RSI, Stochastics warn overbought; RSI high since 2007, stochastics near 2010, 2009 peaks.

    • NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.

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