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Daily FX View: Risk-On In Asia After China PMI, GBP Up On PMI

Asia FX generally outperforming overnight while JPY lags, GBP outperforms EU FX, on U.K. PMI.

• China mfg PMI for Nov. 51.4 vs est. 51.1, prior 51.4; holding in uptrend since 2H 2012
.
• NZD outperforming all major FX; NZD/USD view shifts positive
..• NZD/USD +0.84% at 0.8184
..• NZD/USD View: Positive, bottoming on daily chart
...• Change from bearish view established Oct. 25
...• Rallying after Fri. doji from low since Sept.
...• MACD differential higher from low since Nov. 4
...• RSI up from trough since June
...• Stochastics at low since July
...• Upside technical targets: 0.8407 Nov. 18 high, 0.8415 Nov. 6 high
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• AUD up vs all major FX except NZD; AUD/USD view shifts positive
..• AUD/USD +0.23% at 0.9129, session range 0.9108/0.9168
..• AUD/USD View: Positive, bottoming on daily chart consistent with bullish L-T outlook
...• Holding above 0.9062 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of Aug.-Oct. rally
...• Momentum indicators turning higher
...• MACD up from near early-Nov. trough
...• RSI higher from low since May
...• Stochastics crossing higher from near May bottom
.
• JPY underperforming all Asia FX;
..• USD/JPY +0.34% at 102.79, session range 102.23/102.81
..• USD/JPY view: Cautiously bullish; severely overbought, nearing 103.74 May high
...• MACD differential at high since Sept. peak
...• RSI highest since Feb.
...• Stochastics high since Jan. peak
.
• GBP boosted by U.K. mfg PMI for Nov. 58.4 vs est. 56.1, prior 56.5, high since Feb. 2011
..• GBP/USD +0.12% at 1.6388, session range 1.6362/1.6443

..• GBP/USD view: cautiously bullish
...• Testing to high since 2011
...• RSI, Stochastics warn overbought; RSI high since 2007, stochastics near 2010, 2009 peaks.

• NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.