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TJ Marta
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  • Daily FX View: NZD Down Ahead Of RBNZ; JPY Up As Stocks Fall 0 comments
    Dec 11, 2013 6:49 AM

    NZD weighed as Fonterra cuts dividend forecast, USD/JPY forms double top around 103.38.

    • NZD down vs 21 of 22 major peers
    - Risk tonight from RBNZ decision, unanimous forecast for rate to remain unchanged at 2.50% in Bloomberg survey of 16 economists
    - At Oct meeting, bank left rate unchanged, said change unlikely during '13, increases likely in '14
    - NZD OIS swaps price first rate hike by Mar., Apr. 2014
    - NZD/USD -0.62% at 0.8260, session range 0.8257/0.8313
    - View: Moving to neutral
    - Upward momentum faltering
    - Correcting after 3 rallies of similar magnitude since mid-Oct.

    • JPY outperforms 21 of 22 major FX peers, helped by falling stocks during Asian session
    - Machinery orders for Oct. 0.6% m/m vs est. 0.7%; domestic CGPI for Nov. 2.7% y/y vs est. 2.7%
    - USD/JPY -0.35% at 102.48, session range 102.41/102.95
    - View: Bearish
    - Momentum falling
    - USD extends decline after yesterday's close lower, down from marginal new high since May

    • EUR higher vs 17 of 22 peers
    - EUR/USD +0.02% at 1.3764, session range 1.3741/1.3774
    - View: Contrarian bearish
    - Forming doji day after yesterday's high since Oct.
    - Momentum indicators around overbought levels consistent with tops since Sept. 2012
    - 1M imp. vol. rising from low since Aug. 2007

    • CLP
    - Risk tomorrow from central bank rate decision
    - 22 of 24 forecasts call for rate unch at 4.5%; 2 call for 25bp cut
    - View: Bearish
    - Failing from test of 2011 high
    - Momentum indicators falling

    • NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.

    Themes: Forex
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