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TJ Marta
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  • Daily FX View: USD Rebounds From Late-2013 Weakness 0 comments
    Jan 2, 2014 6:46 AM

    KRW is only exception, outperforms 23 major FX peers on rising export prospects.

    • DXY higher as USD outperforms 20 of 23 peers, most Dec. mfg PMIs disappoint, greenback reversing 5.6% loss seen from July peak through Dec. 31
    ..• DXY +0.44% at 80.464, session range 80.083/481
    ..• Risks today: Jobless claims, est. 342k, within uptrend since Sept.; Dec. mfg. ISM est. 56.8, Nov. 57.3, high since 2011
    ..• Daily chart view: Cautiously bullish
    ...• Testing downtrend in place since mid-Nov.
    ...• Momentum higher, not overbought

    • KRW outperforming all major FX
    ..• Dec. exports 7.1%y/y vs est. 4.8%; imports 3.0% vs est. 1.5%
    ..• Mfg. PMI 50.8, prior 50.4
    ..• Trade ministry expects 2014 exports 6.4% vs 2.2% for 2013
    ..• KRW 1M Fwd -0.45% at 1052.85, session range 1050.5/1057.6
    ..• Daily chart view: Potential bottom
    ...• Holding above 1047.50 Dec. 31 low since 2011
    ...• Momentum mixed: MACD differential, stochastics falling, RSI rising from low since Dec.

    • TRY underperforms all 23 peers, govt raised some consumption taxes, Turkish central scales back daily intervention to $100m from $600m late last week
    ..• Mfg. PMI for Dec. 53.5 from 55.0
    ..• USD/TRY +1.29% at 2.1762, session range 2.1441/2.1827, touched new record high
    ..• Daily chart view: Bullish

    • GBP mixed vs peers after disappointing mfg. PMI
    ..• Dec. mfg PMI 57.3 vs est. 58.4, prior 58.1; down from Nov. high since 2011
    ..• GBP/USD -0.12% at 1.6545, session range 1.6540/1.6603
    ..• Daily chart view: Potential top
    ....• Lower after making new high since 2011
    ....• Momentum: MACD differential, RSI lower from multi-month highs

    • BRL lower after inflation data
    ..• FGV CPI IPC-S 0.69%, as expected; holding below 0.75% Dec. 15 high since Mar.
    ..• Risks today: Dec. PMI, prior 49.7; Dec. trade balance, est. $1.5b
    ..• USD/BRL +1.47% at 2.397, session range 2.3637/2.4008
    ..• Daily chart view: Bullish
    ...• Breaching 76.4% rebound of Aug.-Oct. decline, Dec. high; new high since Sept.
    ...• Momentum higher

    • NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.

    Themes: Forex
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