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Daily FX View: USD Rebounds From Late-2013 Weakness

KRW is only exception, outperforms 23 major FX peers on rising export prospects.

• DXY higher as USD outperforms 20 of 23 peers, most Dec. mfg PMIs disappoint, greenback reversing 5.6% loss seen from July peak through Dec. 31
..• DXY +0.44% at 80.464, session range 80.083/481
..• Risks today: Jobless claims, est. 342k, within uptrend since Sept.; Dec. mfg. ISM est. 56.8, Nov. 57.3, high since 2011
..• Daily chart view: Cautiously bullish
...• Testing downtrend in place since mid-Nov.
...• Momentum higher, not overbought

• KRW outperforming all major FX
..• Dec. exports 7.1%y/y vs est. 4.8%; imports 3.0% vs est. 1.5%
..• Mfg. PMI 50.8, prior 50.4
..• Trade ministry expects 2014 exports 6.4% vs 2.2% for 2013
..• KRW 1M Fwd -0.45% at 1052.85, session range 1050.5/1057.6
..• Daily chart view: Potential bottom
...• Holding above 1047.50 Dec. 31 low since 2011
...• Momentum mixed: MACD differential, stochastics falling, RSI rising from low since Dec.

• TRY underperforms all 23 peers, govt raised some consumption taxes, Turkish central scales back daily intervention to $100m from $600m late last week
..• Mfg. PMI for Dec. 53.5 from 55.0
..• USD/TRY +1.29% at 2.1762, session range 2.1441/2.1827, touched new record high
..• Daily chart view: Bullish

• GBP mixed vs peers after disappointing mfg. PMI
..• Dec. mfg PMI 57.3 vs est. 58.4, prior 58.1; down from Nov. high since 2011
..• GBP/USD -0.12% at 1.6545, session range 1.6540/1.6603
..• Daily chart view: Potential top
....• Lower after making new high since 2011
....• Momentum: MACD differential, RSI lower from multi-month highs

• BRL lower after inflation data
..• FGV CPI IPC-S 0.69%, as expected; holding below 0.75% Dec. 15 high since Mar.
..• Risks today: Dec. PMI, prior 49.7; Dec. trade balance, est. $1.5b
..• USD/BRL +1.47% at 2.397, session range 2.3637/2.4008
..• Daily chart view: Bullish
...• Breaching 76.4% rebound of Aug.-Oct. decline, Dec. high; new high since Sept.
...• Momentum higher

• NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.