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TJ Marta
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  • Daily FX View: GBP/USD, USD/JPY Turn Lower On Weekly Charts 0 comments
    Jan 6, 2014 6:51 AM

    GBP also weighed as services PMI unexpectedly weakens on mo., KRW weighed by rate cut speculation as policy makers caution on currency strength.


    • Moderate USD risk today from U.S. svcs. ISM for Dec., est. 54.6, prior 53.9

    ..• Remains rangebound since 2011 at pace just above that seen at the beginning of 2001, 2007-2009 recessions


    • GBP lower vs 20 of 23 peers; most losses in Asia, reaches session low after U.K. services PMI data

    ..• Services PMI for Dec. 58.8 vs est. 60.3, prior 60.0; 2nd consecutive decline from 62.5 Oct. record high in data to 2006

    ..• GBP/USD -0.21% at 1.6383, session range 1.6338/1.6426

    ..• Daily chart view: Bearish; potential target ~1.622-1.626 Oct. 1, 23 highs, Dec. 17 low

    ....• Falling from Jan. 2 new high since 2011

    ....• Momentum indicators suggest lower GBP: MACD differential, RSI lower from multi-month highs; stochastics losing upward momentum

    ..• Weekly chart view: Bearish

    ....• Momentum indicators lower: MACD continues fall; RSI down from high since 2007; stochastics crossing lower from high since 2004

    ..• CFTC positioning data suggest further declines; 1.8k; down from 17.3k Dec. 24 high since Jan.


    • JPY up vs 22 of 23 peers

    ..• USD/JPY -0.3% at 104.54, session range 104.15/104.95

    ..• Daily chart view: Bearish

    ....• Correction from Jan. 2 new high since 2008

    ....• Momentum indicators all falling

    ..• Weekly chart view: Bearish

    ....• Momentum indicators lower from highs since 2Q


    • EUR higher overnight vs 19 of 23 peers

    ..• EUR/USD +0.19% at 1.3616, session range 1.3572/1.3622

    ..• Daily chart view: Bearish; potential target 1.3296 Nov. 7 low

    ....• New low since Dec. 5

    ....• Momentum indicators lower


    • KRW down vs all 23 major FX on rate cut speculation

    ..• Pres. Park Geun Hye says strong FX, particularly in light JPY weakness stressing Korea economy

    ..• KRW 1-mo. NDF 1067.14, range 1057.18/1070.00

    ..• Daily chart view: Bullish

    ....• Rebounding from 1047.50 Dec. 31 low since 2011

    ....• Momentum indicators higher: MACD, RSI rising

    ..• 1M, 25D R/R up from low similar to those in July 2011, Jan. 2013 that accompanied USD/KRW lows


    • NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.

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