What business will you go into if you have a cash hoard of $150B? More than the currency reserves of many sovereign nations. And you get credit at half the interest rate of the US Government.
Which part of life will cryptography disrupt next?
The answer is digital currency. Money is a form of coded message. That is why bank notes are called notes: they used to be notes from one bank to another, asking the bearer to be paid. Those serial numbers are a form of authentication, a message using which the receiver can verify that the note is valid.
Paper money became outdated because it was easily stolen and with more effort, counterfeited. Back in the 70s the little magnetic strip on a credit card was a technical innovation that beat carrying cash. No longer. Hackers regularly steal credit card data now. For stronger encryption you need a computer. One that you can carry in your pocket. Which can communicate to a network through which encrypted messages can be sent. A phone.
Of the cell phone makers, only AAPL has access to a vast pool of capital. That allows AAPL to act as its own bank and self-insure against fraud. Only AAPL combines consumer trust, cryptographic competence and marketing savvy. Google comes the closest. eBay blew its chance with PayPal. Whoever buys PayPal still has a chance. Amazon could do something like it by expanding its point system, which is already a form of currency.
ApplePay has started off in collaboration with Visa and Mastercard. Just as iTunes started in collaboration with record companies. Once people get used to idea of their phone replacing the credit card, the archaic back room operations of the card networks will be replaced by a modern system based on advanced encryption.
iPhones will be able to receive payments as well make them; there will be no more need for a card reader. The only reason ApplePay uses NFC is to get the consumer comfortable with the system. In fact, any communication channel can be used for making and receiving payment once the encryption is strong enough: even the cell phone network itself. The iPhone is already a powerful enough computer to handle the cryptography required.
Fingerprint authentication will make sure that the phone is in the right hands. (Yes, there is the danger that someone may steal your phone and cut of your finger. Did you think that technology will end all violent crime?)
Small merchants will be glad to sign up and avoid the hefty fees to middle men. Some larger merchants (e.g., CVS) will put up a fight but will give in.
Banks in the US and Europe are strained by lack of capital reserves. AAPL has the opposite problem: its pile of money is encouraging demands for dividends and buybacks. Why not put it to use? One quarter of AAPL is already in effect a hedge fund, so they have the financial expertise to asses the risks.
Did you think in 1995 that AAPL would be in the phone business? Or the music business? In ten years it will be mainly a financial company which also makes computers and phones; and sells music on the side.