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  • Christmas Rally Cliff-Hanger 0 comments
    Dec 12, 2012 8:36 AM

    Two weeks to go before Christmas and less than three before the year is over - and still no resolution to the Fiscal Cliff. At least we are watching right now what the next move the Fed will do regarding QE3 Infinity and/or the Twist.

    SnP500 made a twisted move on Intraday Charts since last posted on November 28 Comment:

    Before: g14.picoodle.com/ltd/img14/5/11/28/aarc/...

    NOW: img14.imagefra.me/i5cc/aarc/141u_a1c_ubk...

    SnP500 is basically headed for much higher rally IF a Complex Spiral Meltup develops. OR at least becomes a simple i-ii-iii rally IF we allow the minor violation of the first Major Support as inconsequential:

    Alternative Count:

    - img14.imagefra.me/i5cc/aarc/141u_bc2_ubk...

    So, there is still good chance for this rally to keep going whichever EW Analysis proved to be right. Time will tell.

    For the Bears:

    - img14.imagefra.me/i5cc/aarc/141u_51b_ubk...

    As usual, if there are bullish counts there will almost always be bearish counts at some juncture.

    * Typo correction for Bearish Scenario Notes: IF an A-wave then the B-wave can be shorter than; equal to; or longer than the A-wave ...

    ** For the Daily Chart; SnP500 was able to rally above the 50ma and the 1422 Major Resistance. Thus, from a Conventional TA point of view Spx is bullish - unless it goes back below the 50ma again. See previous Instablog for Daily Chart illustration.


    Round and round we go.

    Stock markets will almost always go from certainty to uncertainty - back and forth. As of now; it is back to UNCERTAINTY - as far as EW Analysis is concerned.


    Trading Strategies:

    I am still pinning my medium- to long-term trades (and investment) for a continued rally until the markets give me initial confirmation this rally from the Oct 4, 2011 bottom will either go into a Major Pullback OR a Trend Reversal.

    For now, in the absence of any minor confirmation the bears are actually going to have more than 50% probability of success; I will just keep my previous Trading Strategies as detailed in the last Instablog. But will start tightening my Trailing Stops just-in-case SnP500 actually do a Trend Reversal on the Intraday Chart.

    * One way to start speculating a possible Trend Reversal is IF SnP500 retraces more than 61.8% of the rally from 1398.23 higher-low bottom. Not a confirmation but a Major Warning.

    ** I am now about 130% longs when I bought Intel and IBM the last previous week(s). See previous Comments for Intel and/or IBM charts. Intel is bearish on the weekly chart but is expected to rally correctively for a 4th wave for the next several weeks. IBM is a potential A-B-C Flat since the April 3, 2012 top and is expected to rally for the 5th wave when viewed on the monthly chart - possibly toward $249 Nominal Target with potential Extended Target Range of $289 to $354 since the 3rd wave is not extended. Both trades now have Trailing Stops to prevent possible trading loss if they suddenly collapse.

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