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aarc
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  • How Now Wavecount? 2 comments
    Mar 15, 2011 11:01 PM
    The SnP500 at least showed a potential high probability wavecount today after spending more than 15 days playing around and wrecking havoc to the those EW practitioners who strive to keep trying counting each and every move it made during that time period:

    -   img40.imagefra.me/i53f/aarc/141u_080_ubk...

    Spx is still far from getting out of the woods.  A sudden breakdown will again make the 1-2-3-4-5 run down scenario much more highly probable than it was before the re-entry into the Potential Bull Flag Territory.

    This is still considered a process in the making but is able to provide the first opportunity for the Bull Flag Afficionados to enter at the earliest possible time with some degree of confidence and the least possible risk against the potential rewards.

    SnP500 will have a Minimum, Nominal, and Maximum Targets of 1366, 1396, and 1432 respectively IF this pattern works right off the bat using the Alternative Short-Term Scenario posted 14 trading days ago:

    -   img40.imagefra.me/i52m/aarc/141u_4bf_ubk...

    A series of corrective processes with lower lows and consuming more than 22 days from the 1344 start count for the 4th wave will probably make this wavecount moot and academic and the Medium-Term Correction Scenario(s) will start to have some credibility.

    Again, good luck in trend trading but always use hard stops and/or trailing stops since the 1-2-3-4-5 meltdown scenario on the 120min chart is still valid at this moment unless and until Spx confirms that the A-B-C wavecount is the correct one as stated in the Notes section of the chart.
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  • Spectrulater
    , contributor
    Comments (142) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for your frequent posts during the momentum swings.

     

    I don't follow why your alternative wavecount is more probable than assuming the 1-2-3-4-5 up has already terminated based on the end of June lowest low. Why do you expect another wave up?
    16 Mar 2011, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • aarc
    , contributor
    Comments (2556) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Based on the illustrated Daily Chart Alternative Wavecount and the Weekly 1-2-3 Wavecount Targeting Method + the Fibo Extension Trade Sequence.

     

    See previous Instablogs and Comments regarding the Weekly Chart Analysis.

     

    The daily chart 1-2-3 wavecount will have an initial indication it might be invalid IF SnP500 retraces more than 61.8% of the 3rd wave or below 1238.74 (see chart). A confirmation the 1-2-3 wavecount is invalid IF Spx touches or breaks below 1173.64.

     

    Wavecounting needs confirmation (by the market price actions) to either prove the analysis right or wrong since there are already so many possible wavecounts right now that nobody knows for sure which one is correct.

     

    When there are too many possible scenarios; either find out which one is the highest probability to trade or invest or use the Process of Elimination.

     

    Until then, analysis remains subjective (instead of objective) and everything is possible.
    16 Mar 2011, 04:59 PM Reply Like
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