aarc's  Instablog

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  • Profit-Taking Strategies 0 comments
    Jul 9, 2013 9:19 AM

    Bernanke is expected to speak tomorrow = uncertainty should prevail today and tomorrow. Expect the markets to whip around or at least trade in a narrow range. Also, we are entering the Earnings Season a.k.a. Silly Season thus uncertainty might prevail in the next few weeks.

    For trading purposes we have at least 4 scenarios on the medium-term basis from the Long-Live the Queen Part II Instablog:

    #1 SnP500 Conservative Scenario: http://img15.imagefra.me/i579/aarc/141u_db8_ubk5c.png

    #2 Dow Jones Aggressive Scenario: http://img15.imagefra.me/i579/aarc/141u_359_ubk5c.png

    #3 Rusell2K Super Aggressive: http://g15.picoodle.com/ltd/img15/5/5/22/aarc/f_141u_707_ubk5c.png

    #4 Rusell2K Super-Duper: http://g15.picoodle.com/ltd/img15/5/5/22/aarc/f_141u_c7e_ubk5c.png

    With at least 4 scenarios on the Weekly Charts a 'process of elimination' is needed to come up with the highest probability. This can be achieved by analyzing the lower-degree timeframes such as the Daily and/or Intraday chart patterns - that can provide an early clue:

    #1 Dow Jones Daily: http://img15.imagefra.me/i579/aarc/141u_a1b_ubk5c.png

    #2 SnP500 Daily: http://img15.imagefra.me/i579/aarc/141u_d0e_ubk5c.png

    # Russell2K Daily: http://img10.imagefra.me/i579/aarc/141u_2a4_ubk5c.png

    3 different scenarios on the Daily Charts with Russell2000 chart pattern the highest probability scenario since it is supported by the same pattern that has developed at least on XLF and $SOX - among other sectors.


    Trading Strategies:

    With far too many possible scenarios, trading these markets with high efficiency and/or effectiveness can be considered daunting, if not almost impossible, at the least. Thus, trade profitability is dependent more on how the trading strategies are formulated.


    As per last Instablog I bought SSO at $76 to $74 on the way to the $72.45 bottom and YM at almost it's bottom run. That's the Trade Entry Strategies. I leveraged my account to 135% (from 105%) for this trade in order to at least be able to capture 2 or 3 scenarios - of the still very hard to determine future price actions.

    Next is the Profit Taking Strategies:

    SSO Profit Taking Strategies:

    #1: I sold 1/3 SSO longs today (before the open) as it is an A-B-C or 1-2-3 rally on the Intraday 30min Chart with $81.07 Nominal Target for the 3rd wave if SSO is a 1-2-3 on intraday. Thus the cash markets are expected to finalize a minute-degree rally that should last several minutes to a few hours today before undergoing either a Meltdown or another a-b-c pullback down for the 4th wave Intraday.

    #2: Will sell another 1/3 if and when Russell2K approaches it's 5th wave target of 1029 Nominal Target and/or SnP500 finalize a 1-2-3-4-5 rally on the Intraday Chart with Nominal Target of 1670 and an upper range of 1696.

    #3: Will keep at least 1/3 long positions just in case the SnP500 Daily Scenario OR the Russell2K Super-Duper Scenario unfolds.

    #4: Now using Trailing Stops on the 2/3 remaining positions in order to prevent trading loss just-in-case SSO suddenly goes into a Meltdown.

    IF the SnP500 Daily Chart Scenario starts to unfold. More likely I will be buying an A-B-C Pullback Down that may last a two to three weeks after the Intraday 1-2-3-4-5 rally has completed - as a Day-Trade separate from the Taper Turmoil Trade.

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