aarc's  Instablog

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  • Long Live The King 0 comments
    Feb 8, 2012 10:57 AM

    Dow Jones is able to reach a double top to the May 2nd, 2011 today making this the higher probability wavecount:


    Once a double top has been reached; it is almost always preferable to assume that the initial assumption of a possible A-B-C rally (also called a potential X-wave) from the March 2009 bottom to the May 2011 top is null and void. But that does'nt negate the possibility of a C-wave down if the rally from the Oct 2011 bottom is a B-wave up.

    Overall, the rally from the March 2009 bottom remains intact with higher probability of a rally toward the Oct 2007 all-time high to happen sooner or later.

    Compq shared the same pattern as Indu while the SnP500 is still a bit shy off it's 1371 double top resistance.

    For the short-term basis; Compq is the first to produce an impulsive 1-2-3 rally from the Nov 25 low:


    For now, it is better to just keep holding the swing trade positions bought at the of August 9, Oct 4 and/or the bottom call of Nov 23/29, 2011.

    Usually, I use a trailing stop that allows more than 79% of the potential 3rd wave to be retraced in order to give a possible 4th wave pullback generous wiggle room. However, once an extended 3rd wave has been achieved; it is better to allow only a little more than 61.8% of the 3rd wave to be retraced as maximum allowed wiggle room for the 4th wave. If and when an impulsive 3rd wave has been retraced by more than 61.8%, higher probability it will break much lower later.


    Note: I don't know what Seeking Alpha did in re-programming the Instablog interface but the charts' image web link files don't save properly and just kept giving 404.png error when clicked on.

    SA Instablog system got broken with the new programming.

    Sorry about that but it's beyond my control.

    ** A get-around way to make the chart to show is to copy the weblink URL. Start from the right side .png then press (and hold) left mouse button toward the left side img38 then copy the weblink. Then paste the weblink in another browser tab or window.

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