aarc's  Instablog

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  • Sticks And Stones Part V 0 comments
    Aug 14, 2014 7:09 PM

    Markets are on the roll again to the upside:

    >> SnP500 Daily: www.dropbox.com/s/c7b2d4f88xs2mid/snapsh...

    >> Dow Jones Daily: www.dropbox.com/s/8zlyzzr00am3xt2/snapsh...

    >> Compq Daily: www.dropbox.com/s/s6r5eu7itecok37/snapsh...

    SnP500 remains the bearish pattern on the daily.

    Dow Jones may or may not go into another rally but there is a very good chance it will do if the Running Correction Scenario pans out.

    Compq is expected to finalize the i-ii-iii-iv-v rally with specified targets.

    Russell2000 can be interpreted at least two ways none of which I have a high confidence thus better leave it alone.


    Trading Strategies:

    The last time the markets have four different patterns requiring 4 different strategies was in April 13 to May 15. All of them were bullish with excellent contrarian bottom buys. So I loaded up heavily and traded them accordingly.

    This time around there are still 4 different patterns but they are contradictory thus trading these markets can be fraught with peril I never before encountered since the markets rallied almost synchronously from March 2009 to May 2013.

    From June 2013 I executed only 3 swing trades and concentrated on daytrades in expectation the markets will become whippy on their daily charts as they approach their upside targets on their weekly charts. True to form I am now running out of highly viable trade setups as they become much more divergent to each other than ever before.

    Thus, the better trading strategy was/is to sell some positions then protect the rest with trailing stops just in case the rally continues.

    They should keep rallying early morning tomorrow, unless some bad news creep up before 9:30 am. There is a major 138.2% Fibonacci Extension Resistance at 1958 illustrated intraday on the last Instablog in addition to the daily 50ma Resistance for the SnP500. So better be careful than sorry.

    For me:

    - I sold the YM at 16,533 making more than 200 points/contract profits for that trade.

    - Also sold 1/3 SSO positions with 3+% profit for that portion.

    - NQ has a target of 3977 for an a-b-c rally using the 24hrs 240min chart that it should reach before the night is over. So I sold it at 3971 as keeping awake for the remaining 6 points potential profit is not worth the effort.

    - Will try to buy NQ again if it makes a minor a-b-c down on the 240min chart for a potential 5th wave intraday rally. But right now, it is not worth holding on just-in-case Spx started going down by tomorrow and continues through next week.

    I made some profits already so there is no need to be greedy in these highly bifurcated markets. But then it is not practical to turn my back against a possible strong rally if Dow Jones proved to be a Running Correction on the daily and weekly charts. Thus, I will keep the 2/3 SSO buys as a 'Free Trade'. Also, if Dow Jones make an intraday 1-2-3-4-5 rally then more likely I will be buying YM again if an A-B-C down forms by late next week at the earliest.

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