aarc's  Instablog

Send Message
  • Odds And Oddities 0 comments
    Mar 14, 2012 7:09 PM

    Approaching critical situation:

    - img37.imagefra.me/i53e/aarc/12xv_b3b_ubk5c.png

    These are the possible 2 scenarios on the daily:

    > img37.imagefra.me/i53e/aarc/12xv_2e1_ubk5c.png

    > img38.imagefra.me/i53e/aarc/12xv_94f_ubk5c.png

    This is what I hope for to happen on the weekly:

    - img38.imagefra.me/i53e/aarc/12xv_14e_ubk5c.png

    At the moment these are the wildcards:

    - img37.imagefra.me/i53d/aarc/12xv_b15_ubk5c.png

    - img38.imagefra.me/i53d/aarc/12xv_5a1_ubk5c.png

    The last two charts are from my latest Comments.

    Majority of my experience with over-extended rallies (and selloffs) is that the price will suddenly reverse and goes back to at least the ii-nd level. Thus, if AAPL goes down hard, it could pull down the whole US stock markets (and the world).

    On the flip side is that the XLF still got lots of fuel. The v-th wave is capable of going into an extended run with $17.12 the major triple top resistance on the weekly chart. Perhaps XLF can provide some cushion just in case AAPL parabolic run suddenly reverses.

    I am going to sell another 1/4 of SSO Swing Trade in the 1415 area together with another 1/3 FAS as a precautionary trading strategy.

    Will just try to daytrade the next move if Spx decides to test the daily 50ma support.

    Have already closed my NQ Intrepid Trade (bought last Nov 25) at the 2667 level (200% fibo extension resistance on daily) and the other 20% of AAPL at the $553.73. Will hold the last 30% of AAPL position as possible long-term hold just in case AAPL actually goes into a super-delicious Bubble Run for at least the next 3 years.

    Will also keep at least 1/4 positions of SSO and 1/3 FAS (bought in Aug/Oct bottoms) as part of long-term trades. The profits on the 3/4 for SSO and the 2/3 for FAS more than pay up for the rest. So I don't have to worry whether we go into Armageddon or Prolonged Secular Bear Market Correction with those positions - together with the 30% AAPL longs. If we go into another multi-decade Secular Bull Market Rally, highest probability is that we will never see the 1,075 bottom of Oct 4th, 2011 again in our lifetime for the SnP500.

    ** A get-around way to make the chart(s) to show is to copy the weblink URL. Start from the right side .png then press (and hold) left mouse button toward the left side img38 then copy the weblink. Then paste the weblink in another browser tab or window.

Back To aarc's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Most Commented
  1. The Hope Trade ( Comments)
  2. Somewhere ... Over The Rainbows ( Comments)
  3. FOMO Trade Redux ( Comments)
  4. The FOMO Trade ( Comments)
  5. Chasing Rainbows ( Comments)
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.