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Day Of Reckoning

This was my ES analysis yesterday published on Comments section:



The 15-min rally underperformed and thus got punished. Today ES went down below 1318.80 thus it is now considered bearish with more than 50% probability a 1-2-3-4-5 meltdown is going to happen.

SnP500 likewise has the same pattern and similar performance as the ES:


SnP500 is now bearish based on Run Rates measurement thus trading this Index is now fraught with peril for the bulls while the bears who shorted at higher prices can use the Head and Shoulders Neckline as primary resistance.

Dow Jones is bullish:


And the US$ is bearish:


US$ wavecount is self explanatory since it is an ideal potential Flat Pattern with C-wave to go next. Note that this chart was as of yesterday. Today, US$ made a minor penetration of the upper channel resistance which is considered desirable by seasoned traders in order to shake out the weaker hands.

These are the Intraday Analysis of SnP500:



The second chart is the continuation of the first chart making the whole pattern a W-x-Y-x-Z when viewed on the 120min chart or the daily chart. The wedge might not be finished yet and may morph later to something else so be careful out there.

* Typo mistake: c:3 should be c:5 on chart #2.


I bought more SSO today making my Account holds total 120% with 90% remained the long-term Portfolio and borrowed 20% from broker for total 30% Swing Trade. Also bought some YM today.

Most likely this is my last Swing Trade long-side buy attempt. Note that run rate statistical studies were based on impulsive waves. If the wavecount since March 19, 2012 is actually a W-x-Y-x-Z corrective (similar to what happened from Feb 18 to March 16, 2011); the statistical study does not apply. Check out chart analysis in March 16 or 17, 2011

IF SnP500 keeps breaking down then perhaps I will do some Day-trades to the downside and prepare for a possible Prolonged Secular Bear Market later as discussed several times on Instablogs and Comments illustrated on monthly charts if a 1-2-3-4-5 run down actually happens on the daily chart.

** These are the long-term Analysis:



If we rally; then the bullish scenario will remain alive but not necessarily impervious to becoming bearish.

If the SnP500 produced a 1-2-3-4-5 run down on the daily; then the Bearish Scenario of Prolonged Secular Bear Market will start to materialize.