aarc's  Instablog

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  • Alea Iacta Est 0 comments
    Jun 4, 2012 6:00 AM

    'The Die Has Been Cast' = Those were the famous words by Julius Caesar as his army crossed the Rubicon River.

    For the SnP500 the first part of a potential A-B-C down OR a 1-2-3-4-5 run down has been formed at least for the SnP500 (and Nasdaq):

    - img13.imagefra.me/i564/aarc/12xv_01b_ubk...

    It is obvious now that the bears are able to cast the first die and thus possibly started the Potential Prolonged Secular Bear Market Scenario first speculated in March, 2012:

    - g38.picoodle.com/ltd/img38/5/3/9/aarc/f_...

    The most recent price pattern of i-ii-iii-iv-v run down is not qualified as impulsive (per EW Rule Extensions = see Mastering Elliott Wave by Glen Nelly for qualifying and quantifying impulsives). Thus this is the higher probability scenario on the weekly Chart:

    - img14.imagefra.me/i564/aarc/12xv_a7f_ubk...

    For the Bulls:

    The price patterns (per previous Instablogs) on the Intraday Charts still support a corrective run down possibly W-x-Y-x-Z that may still enable a 1-2-3-4-5 rally as first speculated last Dec 2011:

    Daily: g15.picoodle.com/ltd/img15/5/5/21/aarc/f...

    Weekly: g15.picoodle.com/ltd/img15/5/5/24/aarc/f...

    Nobody knows exactly what may actually happen in the future. But then, TA helps us find potential scenarios. To be forewarned is to be forearmed.


    Trading Strategy:

    I am still holding the SSO Swing Trade bought at $51.++ and will unload at least half on a b-wave corrective rally hopefully near the Spx 1344 and/or 1370 Major Resistances as indicated on the Daily Chart. Then trail the rest 'Just In Case' the Fed and/or Europe does/do something that can juice the markets again for a i-ii-iii-iv-v rally.

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