aarc's  Instablog

Send Message
  • Re-investing Again! 2 comments
    May 19, 2010 1:38 PM

    I am starting to re-invest my 25% cash - NOT in US of A.


    Shanghai Index has been going through a correction since August 2009.

    -   img40.imagefra.me/img/img40/6/5/19/aarc/...


    50% to 61.8% is the ideal retracement levels on the weekly chart. 9 to 14 months correction to digest the 9 months of rally is the ideal time-frame.

    I am starting to accumulate Shanghai index thru CAF etf in the US.



    LYG is similar to Compq.  Nasdaq suffered 80% meltdown from 2000 to 2002 before making a rally from 2002 to 2007.  During the meltdown of 2007 to March 2009;  Nasdaq failed to go lower low unlike Dow and SnP and intead retraced more than 79% of the 2002 to 2007 rally.  Nasdaq is now out-performing Dow and Spx from March 2009 because of the higher low setup.




    NBG shows resilience by not going below the last low after approx 7 months of meltdown mania in Greece.

    I am buying banks in troubled countries since no country in the world will be able to survive as a Nation without a viable banking system.  That is the reason why governments all over the world will do anything to keep their banking system alive.



    -   img40.imagefra.me/img/img40/6/5/20/aarc/...

    Nikkei 225 wavecount is very confusing.  At least to me trained with Western ways of thingking.

    Somehow, we have the same notion of good vs. bad.  

    So more likely worth the effort since the US is supposed to be doing nothing but whipsaw everybody for the next year or two.

Back To aarc's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (2)
Track new comments
  • Champstar2
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
    Interesting strategy. I suppose that makes you just about the ultimate contrarian right now. I have no opinion either way. Good luck with those plays. :o) I suppose the main risk is nationalization. The banks might survive, but the stockholders wouldn't in such a case.
    19 May 2010, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • aarc
    , contributor
    Comments (3875) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Strategy is simply to buy them at extremely depressed prices.


    Then sell at least 1/3 on 2x to 5x rally. That way the remaining 2/3 holdings can go bankcrupt or nationalized and I don't care anymore.


    Hold them for 5 to 15 years.


    Did it with more than half of the 130+ damaged (or zombie) companies bought in Feb/Mar 2009. 7 went bankcrupt but more than half rallied 2x to 37x in less than a year from my buy prices.


    I don't even have to look at them anymore since after selling 1/3 to 1/2 of holdings. Nothing to worry about since I have no more skin in any of them.
    20 May 2010, 02:01 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Most Commented
  1. The Hope Trade ( Comments)
  2. Somewhere ... Over The Rainbows ( Comments)
  3. FOMO Trade Redux ( Comments)
  4. The FOMO Trade ( Comments)
  5. Chasing Rainbows ( Comments)
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.