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Which Scenario Is It?

So far I have two potential scenarios for the bulls.

Scenario #1:


Target for the Inverted Head and Shoulders was minimum 1233.


Unfortunately, SnP500 was not able to reach the Inverted Head and Shoulders Target.  When that happens;  there is a potential for a deep pullback toward 61.8% fibo support instead of a shallow A-B-C pullback ( > 38.2% but less than 50%) that may last a year or two. 

The deeper the correction goes;  the less time needed to finalize the correction and the bottom of an A-B-C to be achieved.  I call it "Pay the fine or Serve the time".  Shallow corrections tend to consume so much time when investors are not willing to go into a major sell-off.

It is a lot easier to analyze a rally or a sell-off than to speculate what the end result of a correction while the correction is still in a early- to midrange stages.  Most of the time;  even at the very final stages;  corrections will almost always try to whipsaw everybody out of the final bottom unless they have very wide stop loss provisions or have no stop loss at all.

Scenario #2:



This is the most dangerous.  It is a potential "Heaven or Hell" as I call it everytime I see this type of pattern develops.

That is the reason why I try to shy away from the US stock markets because of Scenario #2. 

And instead go for China, Japan, and/or Greece and potentially Italy since they are already in their advanced stages of corrections.

One thing is for sure:  A correction no matter how shallow or how deep it is will only happen during bad times -  not when all the problems in the world seem so far away.