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  • EOD Hurray! 0 comments
    May 25, 2010 4:15 PM
    EOD Analysis:

    Spx was able to break above 1071.25 today before closing time.

    That is a sigh of relief but not a complete victory.

    YM will have to reach 10,055 on 15min 24-hr chart in order for it to have a 1-2-3 wavecount and achieve 90% probability of forming a complete 1-2-3-4-5 rally.  Target is 10,107 to 10191 before making an A-B-C pullback that may last 1 to 3 days in preparation for another rally toward 10,650 area.

    ES broke below the Head and Shoulders neckline today and was able to mount back above the neckline before closing time.

    ES will have to reach 1074.75 for a 1-2-3 wavecount on 15min 24-hr chart same with YM.  Target is 1081 to 1090 for a complete 1-2-3-4-5 intraday rally.  Objective will be 1044 on the daily chart for another Head and Shoulders pattern.

    1047 will be the measured Right Shoulder Resistance for SnP500 on the daily chart if it succeeds forming another Head and Shoulders pattern. 

    An A-B-C pullback up must exceed 1151 and may even break above 1220 but may not break any higher than 1288 - assuming that today's low is the final low for an A-B-C down that has started since April 26.

    -   img38.imagefra.me/img/img38/6/5/25/aarc/...

    IF Spx breaks hard above 1288; then more likely it will try going after 1330 to 1400 range.

    For now, the highest probability scenario is an A-B-C pullback up that breaks above 1151 but will not be able to reach 1220.


    Addendum:  6:01pm ET.

    I am now 110% long positions today.

    Bought SSO before the open as a swing trade;   bought EWJ when it reached 9.39 fibo reversal target on daily;  bought more LYG and NBG when they broke below intraday double bottoms;  and added FXE longs before the open.  Bought some TAN too at 79% retrace of the weekly rally from March 2009 at 6.13 as long-term investment.  I have buy orders for C at 3.52 for a swing trade toward 4.12-4.30 target  range but they did not trigger and I forgot about it until late.

    Also bought ES, YM and Euro$ using the 15min 24-hr divergence buy signals (before the open) - as swing trades with target objective of 1151 Spx.  1.445 target for Euro$ in 6 to 9 weeks.

    Stop loss on many of them (except TAN, EWJ, LYG and NBG which are mid to long term investments) are now at break-even just in case something really bad event-driven news come to the fore again.

    7:07 pm Update:

    That was quick.  ES was able to reach 1081 nominal target before I can say "hello" and thus triggered my sell limit order.  More likely ES is a 1-2-3-4-5 rally on the 15min 24-hr chart with the 5th the longest.  Will try to buy it back near the start of the 5th or around 1050-1055 area. 

    YM is still a 1-2-3.  I have no sell limit for YM (only stop loss at break-even).

    Now that is what I call another twist.  They will have to resolve their differences either by making a huge rally or go into a meltdown after forming some kind of consolidation range over-night.
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