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  • Swine Flu News Concentrator December 18, 2010 to January 11, 2011 120 comments
    Dec 18, 2010 12:43 PM



    Explanation:

    I will post Swine-Flu and related articles under this heading.  The top of the instablog will contain my current months key links  preceded with a one or two liner that explains the link.  A more complete summary of the link will be in the comments area.  At the bottom of the Instablog we have definition of terms, a summary of Swine Flu / vaccine investment plays, the 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map, Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu, and Memory Alpha which contains links to previous news concentrators and authors articles on the subject.

    I will be backing this up as well.
    Last backup:  None yet

    _____________________

    Update History:
    Added definition of Reassortment
    Added definiton of R0 (R Naught)
    Added Overview of H1N1 / Categories of Vaccine Investment Plays Added Memory Alpha
    Added Link to Google's Swine Flu Infection Map
    Added Red Cross Tips for Dealing With The Flu
    Added definition of EUA and PREP act
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into two parts for October
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into three parts for October
    Added Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 1
    Bolded References to Older Swine Flu Concentrators in Memory Alpha
    Expanded the list of stocks discussed in the tags
    Alphabetized stocks in the tags
    Updated the play by stock list
    Added a table that contains the web site addresses for the companies discussed
    Moved links over one month old to the new Memory Alpha Reference Library
    Added definitions of Clinical Trials and Protocol.
    Corrected Roche stock symbol in the web site table
    _____________________
    Last Swine Flu News Concentrator Links:

    wine Flu News Concentrator November 11 (2010) to December 18, 2010
    tinyurl.com/22pykd8

    Swine Flu News Concentrator September 23 to November 11 (2010)
    tinyurl.com/29eflnpJ

    Swine Flu News Concentrator June 14 to September 23 (2010)

    http://tinyurl.com/294bzc6

    Swine Flu News Concentrator April 8 to June 14
    tinyurl.com/25lqvfx

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (March 13 - April 8)
    tinyurl.com/y8w7mgy


    Swine Flu News Concentrator (February 12 - March 13)
    tinyurl.com/ykba7dl

    Swine Flu News Concentrator January 25 to February 12
    http://preview.tinyurl.com/yjccho4


    ___________________
    Some Definitions:

    What is Reassortment

    When two different virus strains infect the same host, they often exchange genes, a process known as reassortment.

    A significant number of experts are concerned that as H5N1 (Avian Flu) spreads more widely and infects more people, it will come across more hosts who are also carrying human flu viruses. This increases the likelihood of a new strain emerging that has the severity of the bird flu virus and the infection rate of the swine flu virus, leading to a new global pandemic with much deadlier consequences than the one we are experiencing at the moment.


    What is R naught (R 0)


    How many people the average infected person infects is called the basic reproductive number, or R0 (pronounced "R naught").

    Measles, which is probably mankind's most contagious infection, has an R0 of about 18. Polio's number is about 6; severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) about 5. For seasonal flu strains, the R0 is about 1.2, and for pandemic strains it is rarely higher than 2. For the novel H1N1 strain, it's about 1.6. What this low R0 means is that flu outbreaks are always teetering on the verge of having their myriad chains of transmission broken by people who get infected but don't pass the virus to anyone else.

    Swine Flu - Novel H1N1 flu, popularly known as swine flu, is a respiratory infection caused by an influenza virus first recognized in spring 2009. The new virus, which is officially called swine influenza A (H1N1), contains genetic material from human, swine and avian flu viruses. (By Mayo Clinic staff)

    Pandemic - The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people.

    A World Health Organization phase 6 pandemic indicates that influenza due to the novel H1N1 swine flu is occurring in multiple countries around the world and that human infection is widespread. The classification does not reflect the severity of individual infections.

    Cytokine Storm -
    When our body detects foreign micro-organisms indicating an infection, our body might respond by over-protecting the site of infection. The body may race so many antibodies to the infection site that they collect in what is known as a cytokine storm.

    A cytokine storm, or "Hypercytokinemia" is a potentially fatal immune reaction consisting of a positive feedback loop between cytokines and immune cells.
    www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-st...

    A positive feedback loop means that as something increases, that increase stimulates further growth.

    What makes younger people more susceptible to H1N1 is that their “vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs.

    This vulnerability in the young is reminiscent of the Spanish flu of 1918. That strain of flu also struck mostly healthy young adults.

    Pulmonary Embolism - Occurs when a blood clot forms in an arm or leg breaks free and enters the lungs where it is too large to pass through the small vessels of the lungs and forms a blockage. This stops blood from flowing into an area of the lung, and the part of the lung dies because it does not receive oxygen.
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/153796.php

    What is an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?
    An EUA may be issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow either the use of an unapproved medical product or an unapproved use of an approved medical product during certain types of emergencies with specified agents.

    What is the PREP Act?
    The PREP Act authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (“Secretary”) to issue a declaration (“PREP Act declaration”) that provides immunity from tort liability (except for willfull misconduct) for claims of loss caused, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats and conditions determined by the Secretary to constitute a present, or credible risk of a future public health emergency to entities and individuals involved in the development, manufacture, testing, distribution, administration, and use of such countermeasures.

    The PREP Act also authorizes an emergency fund in the United States Treasury to provide compensation for injuries directly caused by administration or use of a countermeasure covered by the Secretary’s declaration. While no funds have been appropriated for this purpose, if funds are appropriated, compensation may then be available for medical benefits, lost wages and death benefits to individuals for specified injuries.
    cdc.gov/h1n1flu/eua/qa.htm

    What are Clinical Trials:
    Clinical trials, also known as clinical studies, are research studies in which scientists and doctors test new drugs and treatments to see if they will improve health. Many of today's treatments for cancer are based on the results of past clinical trials. Because of progress made through clinical trials, many people treated for cancer are now living longer.

    Clinical trials are divided into four phases.
    Phase 1 trials: These trials are the first time a new drug or treatment is given to humans. They are normally carried out in a small number of volunteers (typically 6-20 people) who may include healthy volunteers or patients with the disease for which the product is intended as a treatment in order to find out how safe the treatment is. They also look at how a new drug should be given (by mouth, injected into muscle or the bloodstream, etc.), how often and at what dose. Phase 1 trials can also involve patients for whom standard therapies have failed and for whom no other therapies are available.

    Phase 2 trials: These trials involve larger numbers of people (typically 12 - 50). Phase 2 trials continue to look at safety of the therapy but also test how well the new drug or treatment works in patients with different disease types.

    Phase 3 trials: These are large studies (100+ people) that look at how well a new drug or treatment works in comparison to current therapies to see which treatment is better. Those taking part are usually divided into two treatment groups: standard treatment versus new treatment.

    Phase 4 trials: These trials are usually carried out after the drug or treatment has been approved by the FDA and is readily available for use in the general patient population. The purpose of Phase 4 trials is to continue to study the effects of the drug or treatment on different populations and to look for side effects associated with long-term use.
    Back to Top

    What is a Protocol:
    Clinical trials use written guidelines called protocols. The protocol explains what the trial hopes to accomplish, how the trial will be carried out, and why each part of the trial is necessary. For example, the protocol includes:

        * The reason for doing the trial
        * How many people will be in the trial
        * Who is eligible to take part in the trial
        * What study drugs participants will need to take
        * What medical tests participants will have and how often
        * What information will be gathered

    Every doctor or research center that takes part in the trial uses the same protocol. This makes sure that patients are treated identically no matter where they are receiving treatment, and that information from all the centers taking part can be combined and compared.

    Why Slow Production for Traditionally Produced (chicken eggs) Swine Flu Vaccine:
    One dose of swine flu vaccine for every two eggs, compared with two doses of
    seasonal flu vaccine per egg

    Sorry if the link does not work... it appears the Boston Globe newspaper appears to be playing games with link addresses... Just copy the link, and Google it.

    http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/10/22/quest_for_swine_flu_vaccine_giving_some_firms_a_boost/

    _____________________
    Brief Overview of Categories of H1N1/ Vaccine Investment Plays:

    I - Vaccines / Prevention
    1) Production Method / Capacity plays (NASDAQ:NVAX) (NASDAQ:VICL) (NYSE:NVS) (NASDAQ:INO)
    2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play (SVA - China) (NVAX - India)
    3) Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) (NYSE:BAX) (NYSE:BDX)
    4) Outsourced production plays
    5) Bio -Defence (MDCGF - France)
    6) Anti-Mutation / Pan-Influenza Play (NYSEMKT:CVM) (NYSEMKT:NNVC) (INO)
    7) Universal Flu Vaccine Play (INO)

    II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
    1) Dealing with severe lung infections (Fludase® (DAS181)) (NYSE:CBM) (NASDAQ:AEMD)
    2) ICU treatments (NASDAQ:BCRX) (NYSE:GSK) (NYSE:ROG)
    III - Population Avoidance:
    1) masks/ disinfectants… Surgical masks are good enough (NYSEMKT:APT) (NYSE:MMM) (NYSE:CLX) (NYSE:ECL) (OTCQB:PURE)

    IV - Testing do you have it? (NASDAQ:GPRO)
    1) Test kits - (NYSE:DGX)

    V - Merger / Acquisitions / Licensing (VICL) (NVAX)
    _____________________
    Sorry this is still a graphic instead of a table. I played with the table tool, but its a
    PITA to work with.

    Swine Flu Companies Discussed and Their Web Sites


    _____________________
    Swine Flu Hits Stuffed Animal World:



    2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map:
    The Link is from DoubleGuns
    flutracker.rhizalabs.com/

    I am not too happy with any of the outbreak maps. They all make the same mistake, they try to show the worlds data on one chart. This makes them SLOW.
    I will keep looking for one that works faster.
    _____________________

    Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu:

    IF YOU ARE ILL -
    * Stay in a room separate from common areas of the home and avoid contact with others as much as possible.

    * Stay at home for at least 24 hours after their fever is gone without using medicine to reduce the fever.

    * Get lots of rest and drink plenty of fluids.

    * Consider wearing a facemask, if available and tolerable, when sharing common spaces with household members. (ed - surgical masks ok).

    * Check with your healthcare provider about whether to take antiviral medication, or if fever persists, whether antibiotics are needed.

    WHEN CARING FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS THE FLU -
    *Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces that everyone touches.

    * Use detergent and very hot water to do dishes and wash clothes. It's okay to wash everyone's dishes and clothes together. Wash your hands after handling dirty laundry.

    * Designate only one adult as the caregiver. People at increased risk of severe illness from the flu should not be caregivers.

    * Although not mentioned by the Red Cross, the caregiver should probably ware a surgical mask as well when entering the sick room.

    * Deal with crisis situations calmly and confidently to give the best support to the person being cared for.
    _____________________

    MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season

    Click here to link to the Mayo tool:
    www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...

    _____________________
    Suggeted Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php

    After comparing more than two dozen possible scenarios for closing a school, the analysis suggested three optimal scenarios:

    1. A single-day influenza-related absentee rate of 5 percent

    2. Absenteeism of 4 percent or more on two consecutive days

    3. Absenteeism of 3 percent or more on three consecutive days



    Disclosure: NVAX, NNVC, SVA, VICL (sometimes trading, sometimes holding)
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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (120)
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  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Link to previous Swine Flu News Concentrator:
    tinyurl.com/22pykd8
    18 Dec 2010, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the Old Swine Flu News Concentrator:

     

    From: HardToLove
    NVAX): Concern that swine flu pandemic *may* be in the making.

     

    "It is unclear why the number of trH3N2 examples has been limited to the six most recent TR isolates. However, the announcement for the three most recent cases has been delayed, so the number of cases under investigation or analysis may be higher than the recent three cases. The relatedness between human isolates supports human to human transmission and an emerging swine H3N2 pandemic".

     

    Tha is from an Issapharma.org article "The Emerging H3N2 Swine Pandemic" here.

     

    issapharma.org/blo...

     

    Thanks to Davidlance35 @ Yahoo for the post.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2010, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    Wales is heading for a 10-year flu high with younger people worst affected, according to health officials.

     

    Eleven patients with the H1N1 swine flu virus are in critical care and 17 with flu-like symptoms in intensive care.

     

    Public Health Wales said there was a huge increase in patients last week and it is the worst "flu wave" since 2000.
    23 Dec 2010, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    Vaccine candidate completely protects mice from RSV replication in the lungs

     

    ROCKVILLE, Md., Dec. 22, 2010 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX) and scientists at the University of Massachusetts Medical School, led by Dr. Trudy Morrison, published in the January 2011 issue of The Journal of Virology, a report indicating that a novel virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine candidate against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) protects mice from a live virus challenge. This vaccine candidate has been created with technology that Novavax has licensed exclusively from the University of Massachusetts Medical School.

     

    The publication describes the production and testing of a novel RSV VLP vaccine candidate. Immunization with this genetically engineered RSV VLP vaccine stimulated immune response against key vaccine targets, the RSV G attachment and RSV F fusion proteins. The antibody responses achieved with this vaccine candidate were equal to or better than levels resulting from infection with live RSV. This RSV G+F VLP vaccine stimulated both anti-G and anti-F protein serum antibodies typical of a more Th1-biased response characteristic of natural infection with RSV. When challenged with live RSV, animals immunized with RSV VLPs were completely protected from replication of the virus in the lungs and showed no signs of enhanced respiratory disease.

     

    "This study indicates that immunization with a VLP vaccine results in functional and protective immune responses against RSV. Induction of such functional, protective immunity has been a key challenge in RSV vaccine development. RSV is the leading global cause of infant and childhood respiratory disease, and these encouraging preclinical safety and efficacy data suggest that an RSV VLP vaccine is a promising approach and should be developed further," said Greg Glenn, M.D., Novavax's Chief Scientific Officer.

     

    www.prnewswire.com/new...
    22 Dec 2010, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): I think this was already known, based on prior dissemination? The reason I mention it is that if it was already priced in, it may not move the pps? I know the one you posted was a recent (today?) date, but I could swear I had already seen the substance of that elsewhere.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Dec 2010, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    The only other recent RSV news I know about is the FDA approval to start trials. This was news to me...working with (and licensing from) U of MA and being published in The Journal of Virology.

     

    I don't think this will move the stock price much, if any, but it's good to see results to be in a professional publication so soon.
    22 Dec 2010, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): 12/09

     

    www.novavax.com/downlo...

     

    PDF.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Dec 2010, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Mitshu, H.T.Love: Season's greetings. I wouldn't underestimate the power of publication in major medical journals to influence perception in the investment community. Especially if the story gets picked up by some talking heads in lame stream media outlets; even if the event is a known quantity to those following a company product.
    22 Dec 2010, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Guess I'm late to the dance, Mitshu, as I just read the above article you mentioned on my I-Phone. Nothing news-wise is going to get by us!

     

    Robert: I agree, anything positive published helps. What's great is this is the Jan. 2011 edition, which means this news may still be under the radar.

     

    I'm considering adding to my BA position before X-mas. Anyone here thinking of adding Novavax right away, or are you waiting for a pullback to occur before adding? I haven't checked the charts and indicators recently; I expect them all to be in overbought-land.
    22 Dec 2010, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): A possible short term descending triangle (but only 5 days in the pattern yet and 2 days penetrated support) off a huge 5 day rise that *appears* to me to have been caused by call options purchases, early, and then continued by momentum and expectations of some near-term news release being possible, like yesterdays RSV PR. However, the PR did not move the PPS - I expect that was baked in.

     

    Since a descending triangle shows weakening demand, it frequently breaks lower.

     

    Another view is that we have a pennant hanging of the flag pole, which gives no indication of direction of a break, again over 5 days. The last two day's lows have penetrated support with a re large depth of penetration yesterday.

     

    In contrast to the extreme rising volume on the move up, volume has trailed off every day since Thu. 12/16 and highs have been dropping as the lows remained pretty much "flat", except for the day after the high, Thu. 12/16, the 50% re-trace point.

     

    Yesterday, there were 132 (last time I checked it - mid-day or so) calls sold. With only 438K shares traded, this may have had an effect of helping to support pps.

     

    We already had Fibonacci re-trace of 50% and 38.2% of the range of the run, $2.20 -> $2.71. Bollingers are narrowing quickly now and stochastic crossed below it average Fri. 12/17 and has remained below the average as that average has been moving down.

     

    My feeling is a trend down, maybe back to ~$2.40 range - a 61.8% Fibonacci re-trace - is in the works. Since recent options volume has subsided, I think we'll get a clearer picture shortly.

     

    I might add some in the $2.4x range, sticking with my thoughts when things were more normal.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Dec 2010, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    Maya - Here is my opinion/response to your question for what it's worth. I'm not a technical trader, so can't comment on whether the charts say to buy or not, but...I think if you're considering adding to your position, I'd do it sooner rather than later. Were you watching XOMA this week? There was a research report issued on it basically saying they completed Phase II trials for a diabetes drug and it may become a platform for other drugs. It strikes me that this is almost exactly where NVAX is in the vaccine arena...we have Phase 2 test results from Mexico & U.S., and NVAX sees VLP's as a platform for many new drugs (such as RSV). XOMA ripped higher this week...was $2.40 and closed over $7 this week alone, on huge volume.

     

    Now we know we're due for BARDA to be announced, and hopefully NVAX will get a part of that, and a decent size at that. The interesting kicker here (pure speculation) is that AstraZeneca terminated their RSV program just after NVAX rec'd FDA approval to move forward and had the pre-clinical trial results published. Maybe just a coincidence, but I suspect we'll see an Astra-NVAX partnership for RSV announced soon.

     

    If I had free cash, I'd be buying right here. I added more Jan call options recently and am hoping for some significant news development by the first week of January so my calls work out. If we see a partnership announcement, I think we'll see a XOMA-like move in NVAX even without the potential BARDA news. NVAX is clearly under-valued at these prices (IMO) and once we get a little run going like XOMA started out this week with, we'll be over $5 in a flash. I just think there is too much pending news that could come to try to get a slightly lower price in your purchase...if NVAX rips higher anything like XOMA, it won't matter much if you bought at the current price or 10 cents lower...there will be plenty of trading you could do once we start moving to make up that difference if you want to anyway. Buy on Monday is my advise if you haven't done so already!
    ---
    "I'm considering adding to my BA position before X-mas. Anyone here thinking of adding Novavax right away, or are you waiting for a pullback to occur before adding?"
    24 Dec 2010, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Mitshu: Thanks for taking the time to offer your thoughts. Why I posed the question was that I'm considering something akin to doubling down on the shares I already own. For me, it's a lot of $. Likely, I'll be adding in both the gamer and brokerage accounts; possibly on Monday in the gamer account, and the first trading session next year in the BA--for tax reasons.

     

    In the BA, I already initiated a position, when NVAX was $2.20. I was hoping to add more at a better price, I'm beginning to believe we're in the genesis of a runaway stock.

     

    BTW, what's "Mitshu" mean?
    25 Dec 2010, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    Let's hope for a runaway stock. I think it's a safe stock to double-down on, even if it does take a while before we start moving up. All we need is the right piece of news to spark the rally. If any of the partnership that Rahul mentioned they are working on come through, we go higher.

     

    Mitshu35 doesn't mean anyhing. Years ago, I was trying to set up a user ID for Yahoo games. I was following the name rules, but the system wouldn't accept any of the numerous names I tried to create. Out of frustration, I gave up and just hit my keyboard. mitshu35 came up, so I hit enter and of course, the system accepted that. I've had it ever since and don't even like it (I used get a lot of Japanese questions/comments from it, even though I'm not Japanese). I should create something else, but you know how that goes I'm sure.
    26 Dec 2010, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    Nice mentions & recognition of NVAX's RSV work - I suspect we'll see an RSV partnership announcement soon:

     

    Much earlier in development, meanwhile, MicroDose Therapeutx Inc, Novavax Inc. and NanoBio Corp. — the last two working on vaccines — offer possible licensing opportunities.

     

    And while AstraZeneca leads in the vaccines space, don’t rule out the preclinical vaccines on which Novavax and NanoBio are working.

     

    blogs.wsj.com/source/2...
    23 Dec 2010, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (Dec 24, 2010) Swine flu deaths on the rise in the UK

     

    Twenty four people have died from swine flu in the UK since October, a British public health body confirmed on Thursday.
    ... the vast majority from the H1N1 strain known as swine flu which caused a global pandemic in 2009. Nine of those who died were children. Earlier this week, the UK government's health department announced a total of 302 people were in intensive care with suspected influenza.

     

    "From around the country, reports from frontline staff are showing unprecedented levels of hospitalisation with severe flu in high-risk adults," said Peter Openshaw, director of the centre for respiratory infections at Imperial College London.

     

    Latest figures from the HPA show that confirmed cases of flu increased from 32.8 per 100,000 to 87.1 per 100,000 in the week to December 19.

     

    It does not appear, though, that the H1N1 virus is mutating this year. "All the evidence we have so far is that the virus has not changed," Professor Peter Watson, head of the respiratory diseases department at the HPA, said. "Recent research conducted by the HPA has suggested that a very substantial wave of activity associated with the pandemic strain is not likely."
    tinyurl.com/2eofdw
    24 Dec 2010, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    Recombinomics Commentary 14:40
    December 24, 2010
    The number of people in intensive care with confirmed or suspected flu in England has risen to 460 - more than double what it was a week ago.

     

    On Monday the number was 302, which was markedly higher than the peak level of 180 last season. These numbers signal a significant change in H1N1 virulence.
    24 Dec 2010, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    More news from U.K.:

     

    Swine flu epidemic fear as hospital admissions soar by 250 per cent in a week

     

    Fears of a swine flu epidemic have grown after figures revealed the number of seriously ill patients being treated in hospital for influenza has surged by 250 per cent in a week in the worst outbreak for 20 years.

     

    Eighteen adults and nine children have died from flu this winter.

     

    Some hospital trusts are starting to cancel operations to leave beds empty to make way for a surge in flu cases, with one leading Department of Health official warning of potential shortages in the antiviral drug Tamiflu.

     

    Experts have warned the situation will get worse. The country’s leading virologist, Professor John Oxford, said: ‘I wish I could be optimistic about this outbreak, but I have an uneasy, restless feeling.
    26 Dec 2010, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    Japan and Taiwan H1N1 Sequences Match United Kingdom
    Recombinomics Commentary 16:15
    December 27, 2010

     

    The latest sequences from Asia confirm the spread of the sequences seen earlier in Australia and indicate the latest strains of H1N1 are rapidly evolving via recombination, which is shuffling individual pH1N1 polymorphisms to generate novel sequences, which are generating alarming severe and fatal cases, as seen in the United Kingdom.
    28 Dec 2010, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (Dec 17, 2010) Adjuvanted H1N1 Vaccine Induces A More Rapid And Stronger Immune Response Than Whole-Virus Vaccine, Particularly In Young Adults (From: Medical News Today)

     

    A head to head trial of the two H1N1 vaccines given to adults during the 2009 pandemic finds that the adjuvanted split-virus vaccine achieved a more rapid and stronger immune response than the whole-virus vaccine. Furthermore, the findings published Online First in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, suggest that a single dose of the adjuvanted vaccine should be sufficient in adults and adolescents, but for older people two doses might be required.

     

    The adjuvanted vaccine induced a significantly higher immune response and achieved higher seroconversion rates (rises in antibody levels) than the whole-virus vaccine in all age groups, and this seroprotective effect persisted up to 6 months after vaccination.

     

    The adjuvanted vaccine also achieved more rapid seroconversion than the whole-virus vaccine. Immune responses were strongest in young adults with 75% of all 18-44 year olds achieving seroprotection within one week of the first dose.

     

    The authors say: "Despite having half the antigen content of the whole-virion vaccine, the ASO3A adjuvanted split-virion vaccine was more immunogenic than the whole-virion vaccine in all-age groups. The adjuvanted vaccine induced early seroprotection in three-quarters of young adults and more than half of adults of all ages within 1 week of the first dose. This rapid protection could be crucially important in populations such as at-risk groups, or when giving the vaccine coincides with escalating disease activity."

     

    They conclude: "With limited vaccine production capacity, dose-sparing squalene-containing adjuvanted vaccine can optimise coverage." tinyurl.com/2ab9epg

     

    _______________________
    Potential related news to this article

     

    (December 13, 2010) Vical's Vaxfectin(R) Demonstrates Potential As "Universal" Adjuvant by Global Newswire

     

    (VICL)s "Vaxfectin® has many of the desired features of a successful adjuvant," said Alain P. Rolland, Pharm.D., Ph.D., Vical's Executive Vice President of Product Development, "including the ability to significantly improve immune responses and favor specific types of immune responses. With a promising safety profile in preclinical and initial clinical studies, ease of formulation, stability and low manufacturing costs, Vaxfectin® is well-positioned as a potential 'universal' adjuvant for either immune enhancement or dose sparing applications in a broad range of infectious disease and cancer vaccines.

     

    A comprehensive new review of Vaxfectin® results published in the journal Expert Opinion on Drug Delivery [1] details Vaxfectin®'s development to date and should help us expand our outreach to potential licensees."

     

    tinyurl.com/26r8rlw
    __________________
    (VICL) is up about 10% since this appeared
    24 Dec 2010, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): I've taken another intermediate-term technical look at NVAX here.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    HardToLove
    25 Dec 2010, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    And it's a dang good one for all NVAX investors to read. Well done, HTL!
    26 Dec 2010, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    TODAY'S RANGE MOVER IS NOVAVAX: A NEW SHORT-TERM TRADING RANGE ABOVE $2.69 HAS BEGUN (NVAX)
    Dec 29, 2010 (SmarTrend(R) News Watch via COMTEX) --

     

    Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) traded in a range yesterday that spanned from a low of $2.64 to a high of $2.72. Yesterday's high of the day pierced the 3-day high of $2.69 on volume of 303,000 shares.

     

    Shares of Novavax have been range bound for the past 3-days between a high of $2.69 and a low of $2.49 and have traded with a 30-day average daily volume of 621,000 shares.

     

    Look for shares of NVAX to trade within a new higher trading range with support at $2.69 and move along with its peers in the Biotechnology SmarTrend industry.

     

    SmarTrend currently has shares of Novavax in an Uptrend and issued the Uptrend alert on October 25, 2010 at $2.48. The stock has risen 7.3% since the Uptrend alert was issued.

     

    www.zacks.com/research...
    29 Dec 2010, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): As of 10:48 market doesn't believe. High so far $2.68, low $2.67.

     

    Hanging man may be formed today, a possible bearish indicator. But it needs confirmation on the following days.

     

    Bid/ask right now looks as if range will be tight all day. But that could change.

     

    Time will tell, as usual.

     

    Volume so far, 34.48K - abysmal.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Dec 2010, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    An atricle by thestreet.com on nvax. I believe this is the first time I have seen a positive article on a biotech stock that I own done by this group!

     

    www.thestreet.com/stor...

     

    There is resistance from the $2.92 to $3.15 range, but if Novavax can trade higher and stay above that area, it could make a run for the 5-year highs at the $8-plus level. That's the longer-term potential.

     

    In summary, Novavax may offer a cheap ticket to higher prices. It's a biotech in the clinical phase and is therefore a risky trade. The technical picture does line up well and buying the stock as it retraces into support makes for a reasonable trade.
    30 Dec 2010, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (716) | Send Message
     
    The problem I have right now with (NVAX) is that while it may be ready to pop, we don't know when, and it may be a while. In the meantime, if you're of limited funds to shuffle around(like I am), REEs are blowing up right now, and having money sit in (NVAX) is nerve-wracking.

     

    I want to believe, but it's hard when the REEs are rocketing ahead.
    30 Dec 2010, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Short interest essential where it was 9/30/2010 in days to cover and only a few hundred thousand count lower. This is as of 12/15/2010.

     

    Settlement Date 12/15/2010
    Short Interest 9,535,250
    Percent Change (2.27)
    Average Daily Share Volume 614,571
    Days to Cover 15.52

     

    HardToLove
    28 Dec 2010, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    I added some (NVAX) yesterday. Purchase was not based on technicals, but rather, I just don't want this stock running away. Only increased my position by a little over 10%, in the gamer account.
    Hopoing the stock pulls back some, because I want to add in the brokerage account early next year (Hoping you're right, Hard!)

     

    ####

     

    2 hours ago: H1N1 is expected to be on the rise next month in Taiwan:

     

    www.chinapost.com.tw/t...
    28 Dec 2010, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Last two days, approached and penetrated that important $2.71 area and pulled back below. Friday was on increasing volume and Monday on reducing volume. Time of year, etc. this is not significant ... well, more correctly, we can't rely on the volume to tell us much right now.

     

    Recall that price was both a high and a full Fibonacci re-trace from the $2.20 level.

     

    It did make its move as if coming off a "flag", so that was a positive. The fact that it bumped off that high is not discouraging *yet*. There's been no big options action since that period I mentioned in the insta, so we can (so far) read the price action as being "true".

     

    NB: there were 33 Jan $3 calls traded today and 80 Jul $3 calls also. But the overall open interest has remained "steady".

     

    Anyway, if we do a little consolidation before starting up again, I think prices should stay in the ~$2.45 (Fib 50% = $2.45) - ~$2.70 until a break one way or the other.

     

    Also note that the high was slightly above that long-term resistance (best visual estimate ~$2.67 today), so we shouldn't be concerned that it pulled back from the high into the range of the rising wedge.

     

    If we don't fall into the descending channel in the first couple days of January, I think we're looking good for throwing that in the trash and the "flag" was indeed in effect. Pennant should be out of play by now.

     

    The trend overall has been achieving higher lows and higher highs - a positive. And since 12/8 the average volume has increased substantially in spite of the time of year. If this is not a result of "window dressing", it's a positive thing.

     

    200 days SMA has now gone beyond "flattening" and is beginning to rise. 50 day crossed above it 12/20 (I missed noting that in the insta). Based on price history right now, I *visually* estimate that the 100 day SMA will move above the 200 day in ~3 weeks. Note that is a *visual* SWAG!

     

    Today an epic battle is occurring, albeit with a small number of participants, right around that resistance. Opened just below it, moved about a nickel above it and is now just above it. This should give us lower volume, unless one of the combatants wins today.

     

    Barring catalysts, I expect the trend to be maintained, with the usual vacillations, until we near options expiration week.

     

    *You* hope I'm right?! You're only risking money! *I'm* risking public ego, something much more valuable! =>8-O

     

    Well, in all honesty, I've not much left, so I'm risking very little, in fact. ;-)

     

    HardToLove
    28 Dec 2010, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL: I'm looking to build my position. Back on November 19th, I added @ $2.20. It's done nicely since. Yesterday I added at $2.65. I see $2.96 as the next upward resistance, a high established on April 22.

     

    If/when BARDA comes through, this stock will explode. I expect this positive news sometime before spring.

     

    Risking your reputation? *Hardly!*
    28 Dec 2010, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    IIRC that was in the area we spotted in the charts in the insta. And we almost always have an overshoot, especially if it gets up some momentum.

     

    I think Freya's $3 will certainly be in play if we get anywhere near there.

     

    But please my friend, don't forget the risks - no product *yet*, a competitor for RSV development that is further along, yadda, yadda.

     

    If you can, consider some calls and puts to help mitigate the risk.

     

    I know I've mentioned and you've responded on this before, but I am Tenacious(D)!

     

    HardToLove
    28 Dec 2010, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5183) | Send Message
     
    Being patient with NVAX is hard, especially at year end, when I can just sell it and write it off. I'm not though. Sometimes we just have to wait, especially with Bio tech and pharma, it's the nature of the beast.
    30 Dec 2010, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    To me it's like going early to a sold out Broadway Play.
    30 Dec 2010, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Silentz, HT , Oy, Gee: Seasons greetings. Indeed it is and I have been holding (NVAX) for some time. I share Silentz's angst when other sectors are on a tear and this stock feels like dead money. However as you pointed out patience is a requisite in this sector. There always seem to be factors like BARDA or M&A that could send a stock rocketing off the pad. Meaning if you redeploy capital away you may miss the ride here. We have a similar situation with Capstone Turbine (CPST). Happy New Year to all.
    30 Dec 2010, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Word is starting to spread.
    www.thestreet.com/_yah...
    30 Dec 2010, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    Pretty smart folks - they pretty much agree with my price ranges. ;-))

     

    But I'm surprised that they didn't mention the longer term trends that I recently identified. Regardless of their "anchors", until I see something break that longer-term resistance and support, long-term investors should be able to enter anywhere near the support and expect that lower pps action to trend up @ ~7% per quarter over the long term.

     

    So I don't see why they focus on the short-term trade aspects when ~+7%^4 increase in the lower price range seems to assure a healthy return over a 1 year holding period.

     

    Disclosure: long stock, short calls to make some $ while waiting.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Dec 2010, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (716) | Send Message
     
    In looking at (NVAX) today, it seems that some are bailing on the stock...maybe for the very same reasons. This might actually be a good day to add some shares. *sigh* Silly stock market...
    30 Dec 2010, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    It's bouncing along the top side of resistance of the "flag" identified after the spike occurred. If it doesn't hold there, it likely moves back to at least "inside the flag". With the low holiday volume, you might want to wait unless you feel that the article Robert posted will cause a big increase in bullish interest.

     

    But that article focused on trading and suggested buying on the dips. The pullback so far doesn't really qualify as a dip yet, IMO.

     

    But as mentioned earlier, the trends seem to support long-term continued upward movement. But we've been hoodwinked by the price action before with (NVAX).

     

    HardToLove
    30 Dec 2010, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Just an FYI, NVAX closed back under the resistance line of the potential flag or descending trading channel. As we theorized, it hit the ~$2.71 level and stalled out, spending three days trading around (above and below, intra-day) the projected long-term resistance. That is also a prior resistance from 3/24, $2.72.

     

    The descending channel range tomorrow should be around ~$2.43 support and $2.53 resistance. I would not be surprised if the pps tried to recover above that $2.53 tomorrow as there always seems to be some indecisiveness around important points.

     

    I also wouldn't be surprised if it just drops solidly back into the range though as all the technical indicators have flipped to weakening now and the short-term "fight" between the bulls and bears may have been won by the bears today. Volume is still weak, but is in range for the recent holiday trading, so we can't discount today's action completely.

     

    However, note that the low stopped *right* on the 10./25 established support of $2.53. So I may be premature in calling a TKO for the bears here.

     

    I'm also still watching the $2.47 range as another support level. Both of these levels are within the descending channel and so do not necessarily portend an inflection point when hit.

     

    I'm still looking to add based on what I noted in my latest instablog about the longer trends in play.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Dec 2010, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    H.T.Love: Seasons greetings. Great job tracking this one. I'm looking for the buy box here to add as well.
    30 Dec 2010, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (Dec 30) Government told to vaccinate millions more against flu

     

    Britain's Health secretary Andrew Lansley was tonight under pressure to get a grip on the winter flu outbreak, amid warnings that millions more people need to be vaccinated in order to prevent a mounting death toll.

     

    The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), the government's advisers on vaccines to prevent serious illness, said 16 million Britons are at serious risk from flu.

     

    There were 12 more deaths in the last week from flu, bringing the total this winter to 39, the Health Protection Agency (HPA) said today. Thirty-six were killed by H1N1 swine flu, which is the most virulent of the two main flu strains currently circulating. The others died after contracting Influenza B, the other strain. All except one of the 39 were under 65 and four were under five, which underlines H1N1's dominance of this winter's flu, as it mainly affects groups other than the elderly. tinyurl.com/35353l7
    30 Dec 2010, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    It seems that the slowdown by Mexico, India and FDA/HHS/Barda in getting (NVAX) VLP technology further down the road expeditiously may have some unintended consequences, assuming they weren't in bed with the big pharma lobbyists, in which case there are some intended consequences.

     

    I just hope this doesn't result in unnecessary deaths and tragedies for families around the world and here.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Dec 2010, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I've trimmed (NVAX) back to my core holding, taken profits, but its a sizeable core holding. I'm thinking that this is going to be an interesting Q1 2011 for our old friend here...

     

    LOL, I've got so much dry powder sitting around, I might as well go against the grain and be patient with NVAX.

     

    Discover magazine had a brief article update about Swine Flu. This season might yet see a form pop up that puts the heat under the pressure cooker once again.
    30 Dec 2010, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Just broke $2.47 down to $2.45, putting it below the 20 day SMA and below the support of the descending channel. 50 day SMA is at $2.38, 100 @ $2.29, 200 @ $2.34.

     

    This also breaks a support last tested 10/29-11/2.

     

    Our long-term support today is ~$2.18.

     

    With today's anemic volume, currently 192,9K, I don't see a strong chance of strong recovery.

     

    Amyway, this puts the current pps in the upper end of what I think is an add point. But I think its go more to go down over the near term if it doesn't recover into the descending channel range, ~$2.46 - $2.56.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Dec 2010, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Just picked up another 700 shares of NVAX for $2.45, bringing my total in both accounts to 12,000 shares. I'm now sitting in the front row, patiently waiting for the forthcoming three act play (Mexico, India & BARDA).

     

    Happy New Years to all readers in this column. May we all hit this jackpot soon!

     

    Thanks User, for running this concentrator!
    31 Dec 2010, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): I've added some infor to the instablog I whipped up. In summary, I think I've identified a cyclicality in the price action. A low in the $2.30-$2.35 range should be hit in middle January followed by a rise to around $3.00 in middle-to-late February.

     

    Details are here - go to the 12.31.2010 entry.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    HardToLove
    31 Dec 2010, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HT, any ideas on why the stock seems to exhibit a cyclical pattern?
    31 Dec 2010, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    My question exactly. I'm seeing the cycle, but where is it coming from? I've seen penny stocks exhibit a similar cycle, only to find that an insider was accumulating and it wasn't being tracked as insider trading on my particular platform (it was on others). I'll poke around and see if superimposing insider trades coincides (or even leads) the cycle...
    1 Jan 2011, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Not much recent insider activity, but all sales, and there have been heavy Institutional sales (3.257m shares, at which point Institutional holdings in NVAX dropped 11.42%).

     

    No trends I could spot for 2010 in this area. Dry hole.
    1 Jan 2011, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): I don't have an idea why it cycles yet. Some could be seasonal related I guess - maybe that's why we have a flat spot going through that July date.

     

    I also suspect options may be in play. I've not yet gone back and looked. And when I do I'll only have a limited amount of data - essentially the currently active months since I never had reason to start accumulating a history.

     

    If any one has access to older months data (volume, OI changes, ...) that might yield a clue. As I noted elsewhere, there's an apparent good correlation between a surge in call buying and PPS as the market makers immediately cover naked short positions at a profit or accumulate a bunch and then cover at a low price. This is what it *appeared* to be on the last unexpected spike up. Since the action was January and April calls, I can check those still.

     

    Have to get ready to go to airport and retrieve son-in-law from Chile.

     

    I'll try to look a little deeper when I get back.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jan 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Picking up on "why is it cycling"?.

     

    Here's some early thoughts.

     

    1. Seasonality - as flu season approaches it is natural that additional interest would appear in pharma companies related. I suspect that if we picked any company that has vaccines or flu symptom relievers we might see a seasonal trend starting near the onset of the flu season. In years when virulence was low, interest would be off and the inverse should also hold.

     

    2. Company-specific factors: NVAX had a lot of activity going with Mexico and India JVs at a time when the swine flu scare was in full force. Folks anticipating a rise in pps, regardless of product availability, would be likely to jump on early-stage companies that are cheap and show lots of future potential. Then when the season ends and nothing magical happened a lot of folks bail, figuring the opportunity cost to be too great.

     

    More hype came with expectations of quick Barda awards. You'd think the investment community would know by now that seldom does anything happen quickly with the government. But the boards I monitor kept saying soon, soon, soon and I just sat on my short calls and stayed patient.

     

    3. Preliminary appearance is that the market maker, MM, for the call options aggregates a bunch of naked short positions and when some impetus occurs (and I can't say if it's a sentiment change in the underlying, a seasonal variation, some internal accounting requirements, margin requirements or other) a lot of those positions might be getting covered. The resulting surge in buying by the MM, regardless of price (since the MM is in a profit position from the get-go) is of sufficient quantity and effect to send bullish signals to the market.

     

    Once the covering is done and the price begins to languish, momentum players, day traders, short-term "weak hand" investors, etc. would abandon their positions, driving price down.

     

    Now, I can easily check out (and have already done a preliminary look) the current options activity over the last few months for the options still open.

     

    I have neither the time nor patience nor skills to *efficiently* check other things, such as news cycles, flu cycles, etc. I'm also thinking there may be some correlation to quarterly fiscal events of various arms of the government.

     

    Anyway, I figure I'll jump on the options action and do a little instablog that provides what information I can glean, along with my hypotheticals of course, that fulfills the link I had said I would provide in my little instablog. If someone else has an efficient avenue of investigation, and time, for the other potential factors, that might yield a lot of possibilities that we could integrate into our assessments and strategies.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jan 2011, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Freya posted a link to this flu report over in the QC 134. I'm putting the link here for those that don't follow the QC. In summary, it's flu season and we have some flu of various types and some deaths and ~58% of the cases were not typed as to A/B or H1/H3, etc.

     

    Number of cases have risen to epidemic threshold in certain areas.

     

    Guam had none.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jan 2011, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi HT
    Looking at the data for the past six months, there are clear increases in NVAX trading volumes in 4 out of 6 months, in the middle of the month. In all four middle month volume spikes, NVAXs price goes up, usually by 30 cents per share. The latter implies that the number of shares involved in those spikes is similar. In addition, all four middle month volume spikes have occurred in the last four months.

     

    Spikes in the middle of each month starting me thinking about pay periods. The most common pay period is bi-weekly, the first and 15th of each month. Money received on the first pays the month end bills. But some of the funds paid out in the middle of the month might be more likely routed into savings/ investments.

     

    That started me thinking about stock purchase plans. These kinds of plans are a 'cheap' way to compensate employees, and are frequently used with start-up companies like NVAX. I looked around a bit and found a form 10 k for NVAX that confirms they have an employee stock purchase plan.

     

    If it was a limited group of employs buying on a stock purchase plan, that also might explain the similarity of the stock movement amounts of 30 cents per share. That similarity might be due to the same number of employees investing a similar amount of money.

     

    Finally, the data tells us that the middle month spike has been consistently present for the past four months... that is what I would expect if employees were confident of positive news in the near future.

     

    The Stock Option Hypothesis:
    So it seems feasible that a portion of the recent cyclic stock volume spikes in the middle of the last four months is related to a bi-monthly pay cycle in conjunction with the existence of a stock purchase plan and a positive employee outlook for the near future.

     

    At least that is one possible hypothesis... Of course the whole idea of generating a hypothesis is to critically examine it.
    1 Jan 2011, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    User: That's a pretty neat idea!

     

    According to Linkedin, NVAX has somewhere between 51 and 200 employees; that's quite a spread! They do have a matching 401K retirement savings plan. It would be good to have a more accurate number of employees.

     

    But for the sake of argument...

     

    If, say 150 of Novavax's employees each buy an average of $1000 worth of stock, and the company matches said purchase, that would work out to be 123,456 shares at Friday's closing price of $2.43.

     

    The average daily volume is about 628,000 shares traded. Hence, for the few mid-month days when you're seeing a rise, I would think that the corporate and employee shares purchased may offer some degree of support, but not enough as when compared to shares daily traded, especially if the bought shares are phased in.

     

    This is all pure guess work, of course. Again, neat idea User! But I think there are greater forces at work.

     

    www.linkedin.com/compa...
    1 Jan 2011, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That’s a good way to look at it Maya... the spike in number of shares traded is about 1.2M above the average trading volume... I was only looking at the number of shares traded... Here is what it would look like if their purchase price were below the current price. If we have 150 employees each spending 1,000, we have an investment pool of $150,000. The price per share needed to buy 1.2M shares with an investment pool of 150k would be 12.5 cents per share. I don't think employees would get that kind of deal.... so Hypothesis rejected.
    1 Jan 2011, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    User & Maya,

     

    I think the ESOP plan has some merit, but as Maya highlighted, not enough of an effect to explain it.

     

    But, what if it were combined with another effect?

     

    Here's some Friday Options expiration dates - the last trading day before options are "settled up" over the weekend.

     

    Maybe some coincide, fairly closely, with those pay periods. And we know that options expiration week has a lot of volatility anyway. All of these are Fridays, coincidentally a common payday.

     

    6/17
    7/16
    8/20
    9/17
    10/15
    11/19
    12/17

     

    I've just entered the options volume manually into a spreadsheet for all options that had trades from 5/28 ->12/31. Will be doing a chart.

     

    The tough part is figuring out adjustments, if any, I should attempt.

     

    The problem is where I see matching trades closely spaced and there was a price change either in the option or the underlying. Since I know neither the buyer or seller, whether or not someone was just trading options for profit or cutting losses, whether positions initiated were short covered calls, such as a retail investor might use, or long naked calls, such as a retail investor might use, or short naked calls, such as either a retail investor or a market maker might use, ...

     

    You can see the problem. I'm almost to the point of just saying look at the volume, sans adjustments and figure that some comparisons between open interest, option and share trade volumes and prices might be enough to have some confidence that we can say "This looks like a high likelihood that market makers were heavily influential in this action".

     

    I think that regardless of what I try, with *really* incomplete information that is about the best we can do on the options side.

     

    On the pure research side, looking for the seasonality, big news, etc. around the time of major positive or negative pps moves might prove beneficial.

     

    And if it turns out that we can see some influence by market makers that might have been spurred by such events, then I think we have a leg to stand on, at least, in being able to say that market makers in options were or were not involved. E.g. a big news item hits that should, and does, cause a price to move up in a sustained manner and around the same time we see OI spike, or not, and options trade volume out of proportion in some fashion occurs.

     

    In the most recent case, high expectations for a Barda award sparked a lot of enthusiasm, along with Mexico in a period before that. And on the boards where I try to follow, there were a fair number saying they bought Jan. or Apr. $3 or $4 calls. If my hypothesis (well, it can't be tested or (dis)proven, so that's not the correct term - maybe theory would be better) is anywhere near the mark that should show up in both open interest and options trade volumes. If that is accompanied by an excessive spike in the shares volume in a similar time frame ...

     

    All very tenuous, I know, but that's all we have to work with unless someone has access to detailed daily options transactions data (a la Options Monster?) that can give good indications of positions opened, closed, transferred, various types of spreads, etc.

     

    Right now all I can hang my hat on is watching the OI grow and see how options trades volume matches up and how shares traded matches up.

     

    It may be a wasted effort in that it gives insufficient confidence in the conclusions we try to draw, but it's about all we've got.

     

    Got to go make and eat dinner now - probably off-line until tomorrow.

     

    I appreciate you folks trying to work with me on this. I think it's unusual for folks to expend effort trying to (WARNING! Alliteration Alert) "sleuth the truth" with such severely incomplete data and little hope of adding much to the completeness of it.

     

    For me, that's always been part of the fun *and* frustration though.

     

    I'll yak atcha tomorrow.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jan 2011, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good job HT... its hard work slogging in the trenchs with little data...
    At least we are comming up wth some hypotheses that can be tested, and if the hypothesis is rejected, then some of the alternatives can be rulled out...
    2 Jan 2011, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Decided to put data for put volume and OI for both calls and puts in my spreadsheet. Why? Because when I did a little research about what OI (Open Interest) is *supposed* to mean and how traders and investors can rely on it to help confirm trends, signal changes in trends, I discovered an "anomaly". No shit? Who would've expected that ...

     

    The market people have figured another way to try and screw us.

     

    From several descriptions of open interest, OI is only instantiated and updated when a buyer and seller each take a side of a call or a put, as the case may be. OI is reduced when a contract is executed or closed out or expires. From the literature, the resulting OI, reflecting contracts that have not been executed, closed out or expired, can be used with the underlying's price and volume action to asses the strength of moves and identify weakening trends or possible reversals.

     

    But what happens if 1K-3K of OI just pops into existence with no trades to start them? A large OI indicates that there should be a healthy secondary market so you have some options to reduce losses or make profit if conditions warrant. Well, investors might see the sudden surge in calls OI as a bullish indicator and jump into either the options or the equities or both in anticipation.

     

    Then when a trade is actually done, say 20 contracts that are way overpriced by the market maker anyway (another subject I won't delve into for now), the OI drops the next day from that 3K level to ... 20. So what should have indicated a strong secondary market so the poor investor has a chance to close his position at a reasonable price just evaporated the day after the poor shlub got sucked in by the market.

     

    I've seen several occurrences of this now just working the calls for Jan., Apr. and Jul. I'm looking forward to the Feb. contracts, which just opened last week.

     

    Who're the culprits? Well, the only folks that receive and disseminate the data are the CBOE, The Options Clearing Exchange and the market makers. The clearing exchange is the one that *supposedly* makes this a reliable market for us by standing between all the parties so that buyers, sellers and market makers never bump into each other. That would *seem* to be the logical data source.

     

    I guess that narrows the suspects and again highlights the great job FINRA, and SEC are doing for us, huh? There's more industry organizations (including an OIC - Options Industry Council) but I don't recall it's name or acronym ATM.

     

    Anyway, it'll probably be tomorrow evening before I finish entering data (I have to slide the cursor along small charts, read the numbers, enter into the spreadsheet going back to May 21, 2010). Than I can gen up some charts, take a look and guess what it all means and see if I can visually spot any correlation to the cyclicality we might have in play.

     

    Right now my eyes are crossing from staring at the screen all day.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2011, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Shoot, I ran into this information when I was digging for Flash Crash data, but as you can imagine, HTL, my eyes were crossing from the mass of insanity at the time, so it just sort of buzzed in one ear and out the other. Now I have a pretty darn good idea how that fits into the whole manipulation. Just another tool for the HFT/dark pooler set to throw into their "screw the market" toolbox. And yes, NOT illegal, and not even contrary to regulation. And yes, listed as a problem last year by the SEC's Flash Crash investigation, along with sub-penny quotes, dark pools, and any number of other techniques used to game the system and make the same tiny clique rich...

     

    If it was bad that these things happened (and went on for years) BEFORE the Flash Crash, how bad is it that now that they have been specifically enumerated by the SEC as occurring, and yet are STILL there, still happening, and still NOT illegal or even against the rules?

     

    I hate the bastards, pure and simple.
    3 Jan 2011, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (Jan 2, 2011) Republic of Ireland swine flu cases more than treble
    From: BBC

     

    Cases of swine flu (H1N1) in the Republic of Ireland have increased from 30 to 91 in a week according to the country's Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC). Five swine flu patients are believed to have been admitted to intensive care.

     

    The HPSC has also reported that swine flu is currently the most prevalent type of flu virus circulating in Ireland.
    2 Jan 2011, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Things are getting tough in the UK...
    ______________________...
    (Jan 1, 2011) H1N1; a "children's epidemic"
    From: Guardian.co.uk by Tracy McVeigh and Denis Campbell
    The flu outbreak gripping Britain is set to become a "children's epidemic" as new figures show that the number of under-fives being brought into doctors' surgeries with the illness doubled over the Christmas period.

     

    With schools beginning to reopen this week after the Christmas and New Year break, experts believe the spread of the virus will escalate, taking the number of cases to epidemic level within the next week to 10 days.

     

    NHS hospitals and GP surgeries are already under strain from the sharply rising levels of swine flu and other flu strains afflicting the population over the holiday period. The figures, collated by the research centre of the Royal College of General Practitioners, show there is no sign of a letup in the days ahead. Many hospitals are on "black alert" – cancelling non-urgent operations and running short of available intensive care beds.

     

    Some 738 people are reported to be in intensive care this weekend, including 42 children under five, up from 26 on the previous week.

     

    The rise in the number of young children catching flu has led to further attacks on the government which has already been criticised for delaying the seasonal advertising campaign promoting flu vaccines, and for showing complacency over the limited uptake of vaccines among at-risk groups. Children were not stressed as a priority group while pregnant women, also now emerging as suffering unusually high levels of flu, were only given easier access to vaccines in the past week.

     

    Across England the highest incidence of flu is in the under-four age group – 184 cases per 100,000 babies and infants. Among the over-65s, the incidence last week was 36 cases per 100,000, while the average across all ages was 124 per 100,000 – a rise of 50% on the previous week. An epidemic is defined as 200 cases per 100,000 of population.

     

    "It will be next week when people start to go back to work and to school that we will, I suspect, see the sharpest rise, when we will really see this become the children's epidemic," said Field, former chairman of the Royal College of General Practitioners.

     

    ______________________...

     

    (Jan 2, 2011) FLU ‘IS SET TO SWEEP NATION’
    From: WalesOnline.co.uk by James McCarthy

     

    HUNDREDS of thousands of people in Wales face being struck down by deadly swine flu in the next few weeks.

     

    Killer H1N1 – billed as “the new seasonal flu” by health chiefs and responsible for last winter’s pandemic – is expected to sweep the country until at least the end of January. So far 58 patients have been left critically ill after contracting flu.

     

    Dr Roland Salmon, director of Public Health Wales communicable disease surveillance centre, claimed “somewhere in the order of five to 10%” would be affected by the virus. In Wales that could be as many as 300,000 people.

     

    Dr Salmon said: “Swine flu has become the new seasonal flu.

     

    The health service has not seen so many people affected by flu for more than a decade. Dr Salmon said: “Probably this reflects swine flu is the new seasonal flu and remains a newish virus and more people are able to catch it.
    2 Jan 2011, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): NOVAVAX Launches Phase I Clinical Trial to Evaluate its Novel Vaccine Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)

     

    ... begun patient enrollment in a Phase I clinical trial to assess the safety, immunogenicity and tolerability of a vaccine candidate against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

     

    ... It is expected that interim top-line data from the trial will be available in the third quarter of 2011.

     

    ... timely because there are no vaccines currently approved for RSV disease, which is the most important viral cause of lower respiratory tract infection in infants and children worldwide and is a major cause of respiratory illness in elderly adults.

     

    ... has evaluated its RSV vaccine candidate in well-accepted animal models of toxicity and disease and found it to be safe at all doses tested. Preclinical results have shown induction of neutralizing antibodies and protection from RSV challenge with no disease enhancement and no detection of disease in any of the animals immunized with the vaccine at any dose level tested. Novavax's vaccine uses highly purified recombinant particles of RSV-F fusion protein normally found in the virus.

     

    Full release here.

     

    www.prnewswire.com/new...

     

    HardToLove
    4 Jan 2011, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Adjusted that long-term resistance line (7/28/10 - today) to account for two highs (12/16/10 & 12/28/10), we now have an ascending broadening wedge, as compared to support (8/25/10, 11/17-11/18/10 origin and two touch points) which has not required any adjustment as yet.

     

    That adjusted long-term resistance occurs @ $2.75 today. With the RSV news, we might get a chnce to see if the resistance holds over the next few days or gets soundly violated to the upside.

     

    The news is certainly a short-term catalyst. But will have to wait some time and see if it affects the potential cyclicality we think may be in play.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Jan 2011, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    How pleasant this is!
    4 Jan 2011, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): A concern or two.

     

    1. New conservative austerity. Will they be chopping the budget for BARDA, reducing the size of any potential reward or eliminating it entirely?

     

    2. How is the Phase 1 going to be funded? No mention of partners. Is COH sufficient to carry on normal activities plus the RSV trials? Is dilution in our future to fund this? With no current RSV vaccine, only one developer further along, you'd think BARDA would fund this is they don't get their budget slashed.

     

    I don't know the answers, just trying to think beyond the extremely positive potential of actually getting an RSV vaccine to market in the next couple of years.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Jan 2011, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5183) | Send Message
     
    <We might get a chance to see if the resistance holds over the next few days or gets soundly violated to the upside.>

     

    Chartlng language is startling language.
    4 Jan 2011, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    I like the way your mind works! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    4 Jan 2011, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    OK, if this chart keeps going toward soap opera territory, it could make me blush!
    4 Jan 2011, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5183) | Send Message
     
    Sure, the potential for cuts is everywhere. Hopefully they will cut waste before they cut programs that really are a benefit.
    4 Jan 2011, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    The problem is that one constituency's waste is another's benefit.
    4 Jan 2011, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (CPST)!
    4 Jan 2011, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5183) | Send Message
     
    Robert,Lets agree to leave BARDA alone and cut the IRS, lol.
    4 Jan 2011, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Oy, Gee: Greetings. That is such an awesome idea that it's guaranteed never to be even considered. LOL.
    4 Jan 2011, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX):
    - Yesterday closed below a prior potential support @ ~$2.55 in spite of opening substantially higher and reaching $2.60.
    - Sitting right on a Fibonacci re-trace (if I charted it correctly) of ~$2.53.
    - 20 day SMA yesterday ended @ $2.506 and was penetrated to the downside for a couple hours and never recovered the previous intra-day levels.
    - Our descending trading range is $2.41-$2.52 today and most technical indicators have a negative bias at this time, including increased volume well above the 10 day average on yesterday's price descent IN SPITE OF THE RSV TRIALS news.
    - After spending 4 days trading at and above, mostly, the resistance of our descending channel, we have now traded mostly in the range two of the last three days.

     

    If the cyclicality we think we've identified is in force, this looks on track to get to the projected lows as the trading channel is descending about a penny a day. This would place the support line down around $2.32 about 2 calendar weeks forward with resistance around $2.43.

     

    It will be important to see if the rising 20 day SMA provides any support over the next couple of days. I suspect not.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jan 2011, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    What will support this stock is headlines in the MSM about flu cases. Trade pubs and investment analysts are not moving this one at this point, or at least, not without any of the long standing pending events pops.
    5 Jan 2011, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    One problem is that there really isn't any "Big." news. Face it phase one trials for anything aren't market movers. We haven't heard any breaking news on the Mexican phase three results or BARDA. This stock is essentialy treading water. That being said I'm still holding and accumulating on dips because when we do get "Big." news things are likely to happen quickly.
    5 Jan 2011, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    One update on BARDA...

     

    There is a BARDA Industry Day on Jan. 10-12 and NVAX has not been asked to present. Some other companies of note that are presenting include: Dynavax, Vaxxinate, Medilago. See pg. 9 of attached link if interested.

     

    www.medicalcountermeas...

     

    Not sure if this has any meaning or not, but would be a good sign if nvax had been invited to present. I still believe nvax will get some BARDA funds.

     

    Also, as an aside, XOMA announced a partnership and that stock jumped some 40%+ yesterday. I expect we'll see a similar move if/when we ever see a similar announcement. One firm now has a $27 target price. This stock was under $2.50 just a couple of weeks ago, and I believe they are in a similar position as nvax (completed Phase II trials, no product on the market, working on partnerships). I guess one can dream...
    5 Jan 2011, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Pennsylvania Clusters causing fears that H1N1 becoming dominate this flu season.

     

    www.recombinomics.com/...

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jan 2011, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    From England today:

     

    Critical care beds across Greater Manchester are near breaking point as hospitals battle to cope with a surge in swine flu victims.
    The region has around 119 intensive care beds – but at one point yesterday all but three were full.

     

    ALMOST half of Britain’s 3,000 intensive care beds are occupied by swine flu victims. That is the warning from experts who last night said the pandemic – the worst in two decades – shows no sign of easing.

     

    The vast majority of these cases are due to H1N1 infections, indicating that the H1N1 circulating in the UK has largely escaped the immunological reponse generated by infection or vaccination with the H1N1 circulating in the UK last season.

     

    Recent reports from other northern hemisphere countries, including the United States, have raised concerns that these spikes in H1N1 cases represents the start of a third wave of H1N1 that will sweep through the region and produce greater numbers of severe and fatal cases, leading to a serious strain on health care delivery.
    5 Jan 2011, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Put that story on CNN and Fox, and the stock will go up $1 per share that day.
    5 Jan 2011, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    And it needs the help. Did you see the volume today? 246K.

     

    Wasn't much "negotiation" going on either. For the most part, sellers and buyers didn't budge their prices.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jan 2011, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Sheesh! That's the next county over from where I live!

     

    May have to go back into the archives and find out who makes masks, if H1N1 breaks out again, which it looks to be doing.
    5 Jan 2011, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    APT is one company that makes masks and related safety gear. As I recall, this stock went pretty wild on the last H1N1 round. Might be worth looking at for a play if things keep progressing as they appear to be.
    5 Jan 2011, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Yes, Mitsu, I remember APT. Made a some $ on it last year. (APT) was ironically mentioned in this list of stocks under five bucks with bullish options sentiment, published today here on SA!:

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    Amazing how many of these mentioned I've owned in the past!

     

    5 Jan 2011, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Been a while since we have heard anything from Medicago (MDG)
    ______________________...

     

    (Jan 6, 2011) Medicago Announces Publication Of Its Phase I Study With Its Pandemic H5N1 Influenza Virus-Like Particle (VLP) Vaccine Candidate

     

    Medicago Inc. (MDG) a biotechnology company focused on developing highly effective and affordable vaccines based on proprietary manufacturing technologies and Virus-Like Particles (VLPs), today announced that a scientific report entitled "Preclinical and Clinical Development of Plant-Made Virus-Like Particle Vaccine against Avian H5N1 Influenza," was recently published in the peer-reviewed journal PLoS ONE.

     

    "This is the first time a scientific report on a clinical trial for a plant-based influenza VLP vaccine in humans has been published in a peer-reviewed journal. It is a great accomplishment and demonstrates our leadership in the development of new, affordable and rapid approaches to the production of vaccines." said Louis Vezina, Chief Scientific Officer of Medicago. "Looking ahead, we are in a good position to present Phase II clinical trial data for our H5N1 VLP vaccine candidate later this month which we believe will further validate our rapid and cost-effective VLP vaccine technology offering."
    6 Jan 2011, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (January 6, 2011) H1N1 - UK death toll hits 50
    From: Guardian.co.uk by Denis Campbell

     

    GPs have been told to use old stocks of swine flu vaccine to counter shortages of the seasonal flu jab, as the death toll from this winter's outbreak hit 50.

     

    In the last week 11 more people have died in the UK, and the number receiving critical care in hospital has also risen from 738 to 783, data showed.

     

    In an unexpected move the Department of Health has told GPs that they can use swine flu vaccine stockpiled during the 2009 epidemic to help protect at-risk patients.

     

    Professor Sally Davies, the interim chief medical officer for England, confirmed today that the government is releasing the 12.7m doses of the Pandemic swine flu vaccine that it holds.
    tinyurl.com/2b7gtr3
    ______________________...
    Interesting, vaccines lose effectiveness with time… this is a clear indication of poor government planning.
    6 Jan 2011, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    I don't know, but I suspect VLP-based ones wouldn't since they are not based on "live" foundations? Have you run across anything mentioning if that is the case?

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jan 2011, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Have those types of vaccines even been around long enough for that data to be available?
    7 Jan 2011, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    I don't think so. But which those folks being so smart I would expect that they can predict shelf life now.

     

    If what ends up being in the vaccine is inactive components that are unable, or very unlikely, to combine with other components in the sera and/or are unlikely to have chemical decomposition, it should be possible for them to both model any possible changes and predict a shelf life, if not unlimited.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jan 2011, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I looked into the issue, and come up with some interesting information. I found that something called Antigenic drift, antigenic shift, or combination of two or more strains of viruses results in the creation of a new strain of the influenza virus over time.

     

    So the flu virus itself shifts with time. This casts the "shelf life", "potency with time question" in a new light. In other words, advantages of greater shelf life become somewhat irrelevant with the passage of time because the virus itself changes with time.

     

    The new question becomes: are VLP vaccines less sensitive to variation in temperature and pressure then traditional vaccines?

     

    Alas, I could not find an answer to that question, but the research did lead to a refinement of the question itself. I will keep searching.
    7 Jan 2011, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, the (NVAX) vlp can contain markers for multiple strains (if they have been identified, of course) so that if the drift involves one of the markers already carried on the VLP, it could still be effective. ISTR some term like "cross strain" being applied to the vaccine(s) that have this characteristic.

     

    Of course, if the new strain doesn't carry one of the pre-identified markers, it would not be effective against the new strain.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jan 2011, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    As I understand it the various strains can swap genetic information becoming a recombinant strain which can have properties of both donors or entirely new properties. This can have affects on virulence and lethality and is one of the reasons new vaccines are required all the time. As user pointed out the strains mutate very quickly making it a logical assumption that shelf life would be limited by that factor alone. That being said the ability to place multiple markers in a single vaccine without degrading immune response would seem to be a game changer.
    7 Jan 2011, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Added another thousand shares of (NVAX) on the dip, mainly just because of the rising background news buzz about new deaths from the swine flu. I am expecting the MSM to jump all over this ongoing story once again, perhaps when they tire of politics one cold, winter morning. Doubtless they will get the facts all wrong, as usual, add a few awdward zeros to some numbers, turn "50 deaths in the UK" into "Pandemic Rages in Britain".

     

    Ad revenue cycle is close at hand...
    7 Jan 2011, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Just busted $2.45 down and seems headed lower. Out cyclic theory *seems* to playing out. Volume has been *very* low the last few days as well. Looks like it'll close today inside the old descending channel.

     

    Next week should let us know if it intends to do as we thought it might.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jan 2011, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Magic number for me today was $2.46, that's when program trade hit.

     

    I'm a buyer in the $2.30's too.
    7 Jan 2011, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    First MSM coverage I've seen in a while about H1N1:

     

    www.foxnews.com/world/.../
    8 Jan 2011, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Fears over mutating swine flu virus that could render vaccine useless

     

    A research team has hurriedly been re-formed to investigate whether the swine flu virus has started to mutate in a way that will render the vaccine ineffective.

     

    Senior Government scientists have already discovered slight genetic mutations in the H1N1 virus.
    They are checking whether this is causing some people to be more severely affected, although there is no evidence at this stage to suggest the changes would stop the vaccine working or prevent the anti-viral drug Tamiflu from being effective.

     

    Professor Peter Openshaw, director of the Centre for Respiratory Infection at Imperial, said: ‘We have paid particular attention to whether the mutations are affecting how well the vaccine works and whether the slight mutations have led to it becoming more severe.’

     

    Asthma specialist nurse Katy Odeadra, who works in the Chest and Allergy Clinic at St Mary’s Hospital, said: ‘All the talk among doctors and nurses dealing with swine flu cases is of a mutated form of the virus.’ tinyurl.com/28zcw9e
    ________________
    They really need to speed up the research process here... If it is mutating, they need to redevelop a vaccine that is effective... It does little good to have a fast track vaccine manufacturing method if starting up production has to wait for these researchers to get results.... It seems all you would have to do is to develop a new vaccine based on samples from people that contracted a severe form of H1N1 ... now compare the old vaccine with the new one... If they are different then you know you should start redevelopment immediately to produce a vaccine optimally tuned for the current virus version.
    10 Jan 2011, 06:34 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5183) | Send Message
     
    Wales is already short flu vaccine:
    www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-...
    10 Jan 2011, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    This development could liven things up in this sector.
    online.wsj.com/article...
    10 Jan 2011, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here is the meat of that link provided by Robert….. You can see the full version of the article by entering the title on Google and selecting the link starting with Think Again:
    ______________________...

     

    (January 9, 2011) AstraZeneca Setback on RSV Drug Could Spur Deals (From: The Wall Street Journal)

     

    The halt in development by AstraZeneca PLC of its most advanced follow-up compound for respiratory syncytial virus infection, or RSV, might spur interest in a handful of earlier-stage projects. Developing a vaccine for the disease, which can be serious for infants and the elderly, remains a significant long-term goal for the biotech industry.

     

    The discontinuation of motavizumab changes the playing field in this potentially lucrative area, and makes Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s ALN-RSV01, currently in Phase II development, the most advanced RSV therapy in development.

     

    A successful outcome in the study would surely prompt Cubist to consider buying out its junior partner, and might even renew speculation about a larger company buying out Cubist. Meanwhile, companies with drugs much earlier in development, such as MicroDose Therapeutx Inc, Novavax Inc. and NanoBio Corp.—the last two working on vaccines—offer possible licensing opportunities.
    10 Jan 2011, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    User: Greetings. Thanks, nice save.
    10 Jan 2011, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): This is the one that caused me to wonder before if NVAX might have some difficulty because it had not yet started clinical trials and was behind it's competitor. Also I wondered about the need for funding for the trials.

     

    Those things are still on my mind as BARDA chatter, as well as actual action (by not inviting NVAX to their upcoming confab), seems to not be favoring any near-term bestowal of "Manna from Heaven" on NVAX.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2011, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Hard: I've been thinking the same thing. It's been since last March they enrolled Mexican 4550 patients for an H1N1 study. Not a peep in nine months since about the results. Anybody know how long it *usually* takes to obtain these results?

     

    Their home web page is drastically out of date. I can not find a recent quarterly statement. They did close out a public offering of 6.9 million shares in Decemeber of 2009, @ $3.30 per share. Here's the question, has their cash burn eaten up all the money raised, already?
    10 Jan 2011, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Apologies for the editing in previous comment. Weather Channel's on, another potential biggy is going to hit the I-95 corridor, where I live. Going to go get some milk!
    10 Jan 2011, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    If you were from ths SOuth, you would be smart enough to know that you milk *and* bread! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2011, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Greetings. I think it was in the last Flu Concentrator that Mitshu brought word of the results from Mexico trials would be published in a peer revue journal. Since then I haven't seen anything new about the H1N1 trial results and I can't recall the name of the publication. RSV phase 1 trial is a relatively new development but hardly earth shattering.
    10 Jan 2011, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    I believe the publication was nature.com that was to handle the peer review - I keep checking their web site and don't find anything there. Some posters on Yahoo say that nature.com may not be correct, so I'm not 100% certain at this point, but I still believe it to be the case as someone on that board said they contacted Novavax and confirmed Nature.com was managing the peer-review process. I expect to see news on this being complete sometime this month, but with the way things drag out, who knows....

     

    Regarding BARDA, the good news is that none of the award for the 09-32 RFP has been granted. I would be more concerned that NVAX wasn't invited to the Industry Day events if some other companies had started receiving awards and NVAX has not, but as far as I can tell, this isn't the case.
    10 Jan 2011, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Mitshu: Greetings and salutations for the new year. Thanks for the information. I think I may go and poke around a little to see if I can find anything.
    10 Jan 2011, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    I looooove $840 milk runs!
    10 Jan 2011, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Nothing of real significance here. Third quarter results showing $30 odd million left in the kitty and a nasty burn rate. pharma.daoblogs.com/46...
    10 Jan 2011, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    This may be fairly significant. Looks like an international patent was granted to NVAX in late December. Covers many countries it appears. We really need to get a partnership going in Europe, so this may help pave the way:

     

    www.wipo.int/pctdb/ias...
    10 Jan 2011, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting... NVAX is up over 7% today
    10 Jan 2011, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    So is SVA, so I'm thinking this is more H1N1-related than company-specific. The first H1N1 headlines are starting to show up in our main stream media, so this may have been the catalyst for today. On the other hand, BARDA's Industry Day is this week (3 days, so not sure how they get away with calling it a 'Day', but that's gov't for you), so maybe we're seeing speculation that awards will be doled out this week.
    10 Jan 2011, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): DANGER WILL ROBINSON!

     

    LoL! Just wanted to remind that we *may* and I repeat *may* have identified that cyclic behavior. And in the prior times we had big spikes before a substantial move down.

     

    With our *normal* trading range estimated to be ~$2.71-$2.45 or so, I just wanted all to be alert - after we need more "lerts" around here! :-))

     

    I'm still expecting to find an add point, especially if my SWAG about something in the $2.3x range happens next week or so.

     

    My long positions are all covered by calls at a good profit and I would like to have some more in hand if they get called away.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2011, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): P.S. Options had some calls purchased today, a couple hundred contracts across the months and prices, but open interest remand relatively stable, so I don't think the price move today was strongly influenced by the options action. The 970K shares traded would *swamp* the volume related to options.

     

    Maybe some short covering in today's volume?

     

    BTW, our long-term resistance line says tomorrow's resistance would hit about $2.70. Recent highs (12/16, 12/28/10) of $2.71 & $2.72 will add to the resistance the long-term trend line indicates should be in force.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2011, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Lost In (the) Space...of a trading range ;-)
    10 Jan 2011, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    They have posted a list of events for this year. www.novavax.com/go.cfm...
    10 Jan 2011, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19394) | Send Message
     
    (VICL): Publication Highlights Allovectin-7(R) Phase 2 Safety and Efficacy Results in Melanoma

     

    +6% pre-market to $2.22/

     

    globenewswire.com/news...

     

    "... a new publication summarizing results from the company's completed trials of Allovectin-7® including systemic responses and an excellent safety profile in patients with metastatic melanoma. An article published in the January issue of Immunotherapy1 noted that the U.S. incidence of melanoma is increasing rapidly, that current therapies are inadequate and toxic, and that melanoma is responsive to immune-stimulating drugs like Allovectin-7®. A Phase 3 trial evaluating the safety and efficacy of Allovectin-7® compared with standard chemotherapy is expected to complete final follow-ups later this year".

     

    The link includes more details about study construction and results.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Jan 2011, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please go to the Current Swine Flu News Concentrator:
    tinyurl.com/47q97pz
    11 Jan 2011, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    BioWatch article, mentions NVAX:

     

    A virus that most commonly causes respiratory disease in children is the target of a vaccine candidate being developed by Novavax of Rockville, which has begun enrolling patients in a phase 1 clinical trial.

     

    Respiratory syncytial virus causes lower respiratory tract infections, with 64 million cases and 160,000 deaths annually around the world, according to Novavax. Each year, 75,000 to 125,000 American babies younger than 1 are hospitalized because of this viral infection. More than 8.5 million adults are infected annually, with 900,000 patients hospitalized in the U.S. and major European countries. Hospitalization costs for adults exceed $1 billion per year.

     

    The escalating-dose study is to involve 100 healthy adults 18 to 49 years old, with interim data expected in the third quarter. The vaccine is based on the company's virus-like-particle technology.

     

    "The launch of this trial is timely because there are no vaccines currently approved for RSV disease," CEO Raul Singhvi said in a statement. "The initiation of the trial ... marks a key milestone for Novavax, as the Company now has a clinical candidate in a second major disease target in addition to influenza."

     

    www.gazette.net/storie...
    14 Jan 2011, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Mitshu: Greetings. User has posted the new concentrator.
    14 Jan 2011, 06:06 PM Reply Like
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