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  • Swine Flu News Concentrator February 20, 2011 to March 22, 2011 167 comments
    Feb 20, 2011 1:57 PM
     


    Explanation:

    I will post Swine-Flu and related articles under this heading.  The top of the instablog will contain my current months key links  preceded with a one or two liner that explains the link.  A more complete summary of the link will be in the comments area.  At the bottom of the Instablog we have definition of terms, a summary of Swine Flu / vaccine investment plays, the 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map, Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu, and Memory Alpha which contains links to previous news concentrators and authors articles on the subject.


    _____________________

    Update History:
    Added definition of Reassortment
    Added definiton of R0 (R Naught)
    Added Overview of H1N1 / Categories of Vaccine Investment Plays Added Memory Alpha
    Added Link to Google's Swine Flu Infection Map
    Added Red Cross Tips for Dealing With The Flu
    Added definition of EUA and PREP act
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into two parts for October
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into three parts for October
    Added Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 1
    Bolded References to Older Swine Flu Concentrators in Memory Alpha
    Expanded the list of stocks discussed in the tags
    Alphabetized stocks in the tags
    Updated the play by stock list
    Added a table that contains the web site addresses for the companies discussed
    Moved links over one month old to the new Memory Alpha Reference Library
    Added definitions of Clinical Trials and Protocol.
    Corrected Roche stock symbol in the web site table
    _____________________
    Last Swine Flu News Concentrator Links:

    Swine Flu News Concentrator January 28, 2011 to February 20, 2011
    tinyurl.com/4u9nlrz

    Swine Flu News Concentrator January 11, 2011 to January 28, 2011
    tinyurl.com/4maxxdv

    Swine Flu News Concentrator December 18 (2010) to January 11, 2011
    tinyurl.com/4gs9xzl

    Swine Flu News Concentrator November 11 (2010) to December 18, 2010
    tinyurl.com/22pykd8

    Swine Flu News Concentrator September 23 to November 11 (2010)
    tinyurl.com/29eflnpJ

    Swine Flu News Concentrator June 14 to September 23 (2010)

    http://tinyurl.com/294bzc6

    Swine Flu News Concentrator April 8 to June 14
    tinyurl.com/25lqvfx

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (March 13 - April 8)
    tinyurl.com/y8w7mgy


    Swine Flu News Concentrator (February 12 - March 13)
    tinyurl.com/ykba7dl

    Swine Flu News Concentrator January 25 to February 12
    http://preview.tinyurl.com/yjccho4


    ___________________
    Some Definitions:

    What is Reassortment

    When two different virus strains infect the same host, they often exchange genes, a process known as reassortment. 

    A significant number of experts are concerned that as H5N1 (Avian Flu) spreads more widely and infects more people, it will come across more hosts who are also carrying human flu viruses. This increases the likelihood of a new strain emerging that has the severity of the bird flu virus and the infection rate of the swine flu virus, leading to a new global pandemic with much deadlier consequences than the one we are experiencing at the moment.


    What is R naught (R 0)


    How many people the average infected person infects is called the basic reproductive number, or R0 (pronounced "R naught"). 

    Measles, which is probably mankind's most contagious infection, has an R0 of about 18. Polio's number is about 6; severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) about 5. For seasonal flu strains, the R0 is about 1.2, and for pandemic strains it is rarely higher than 2. For the novel H1N1 strain, it's about 1.6. What this low R0 means is that flu outbreaks are always teetering on the verge of having their myriad chains of transmission broken by people who get infected but don't pass the virus to anyone else.

    Swine Flu - Novel H1N1 flu, popularly known as swine flu, is a respiratory infection caused by an influenza virus first recognized in spring 2009. The new virus, which is officially called swine influenza A (H1N1), contains genetic material from human, swine and avian flu viruses. (By Mayo Clinic staff)

    Pandemic - The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people.

    A World Health Organization phase 6 pandemic indicates that influenza due to the novel H1N1 swine flu is occurring in multiple countries around the world and that human infection is widespread. The classification does not reflect the severity of individual infections.

    Cytokine Storm -
    When our body detects foreign micro-organisms indicating an infection, our body might respond by over-protecting the site of infection. The body may race so many antibodies to the infection site that they collect in what is known as a cytokine storm. 

    A cytokine storm, or "Hypercytokinemia" is a potentially fatal immune reaction consisting of a positive feedback loop between cytokines and immune cells. 
    www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-st...

    A positive feedback loop means that as something increases, that increase stimulates further growth. 

    What makes younger people more susceptible to H1N1 is that their “vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs.

    This vulnerability in the young is reminiscent of the Spanish flu of 1918. That strain of flu also struck mostly healthy young adults.

    Pulmonary Embolism - Occurs when a blood clot forms in an arm or leg breaks free and enters the lungs where it is too large to pass through the small vessels of the lungs and forms a blockage. This stops blood from flowing into an area of the lung, and the part of the lung dies because it does not receive oxygen.
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/153796.php

    What is an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?
    An EUA may be issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow either the use of an unapproved medical product or an unapproved use of an approved medical product during certain types of emergencies with specified agents.

    What is the PREP Act?
    The PREP Act authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (“Secretary”) to issue a declaration (“PREP Act declaration”) that provides immunity from tort liability (except for willfull misconduct) for claims of loss caused, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats and conditions determined by the Secretary to constitute a present, or credible risk of a future public health emergency to entities and individuals involved in the development, manufacture, testing, distribution, administration, and use of such countermeasures.

    The PREP Act also authorizes an emergency fund in the United States Treasury to provide compensation for injuries directly caused by administration or use of a countermeasure covered by the Secretary’s declaration. While no funds have been appropriated for this purpose, if funds are appropriated, compensation may then be available for medical benefits, lost wages and death benefits to individuals for specified injuries.
    cdc.gov/h1n1flu/eua/qa.htm

    What are Clinical Trials:
    Clinical trials, also known as clinical studies, are research studies in which scientists and doctors test new drugs and treatments to see if they will improve health. Many of today's treatments for cancer are based on the results of past clinical trials. Because of progress made through clinical trials, many people treated for cancer are now living longer.

    Clinical trials are divided into four phases.
    Phase 1 trials: These trials are the first time a new drug or treatment is given to humans. They are normally carried out in a small number of volunteers (typically 6-20 people) who may include healthy volunteers or patients with the disease for which the product is intended as a treatment in order to find out how safe the treatment is. They also look at how a new drug should be given (by mouth, injected into muscle or the bloodstream, etc.), how often and at what dose. Phase 1 trials can also involve patients for whom standard therapies have failed and for whom no other therapies are available.

    Phase 2 trials: These trials involve larger numbers of people (typically 12 - 50). Phase 2 trials continue to look at safety of the therapy but also test how well the new drug or treatment works in patients with different disease types.

    Phase 3 trials: These are large studies (100+ people) that look at how well a new drug or treatment works in comparison to current therapies to see which treatment is better. Those taking part are usually divided into two treatment groups: standard treatment versus new treatment.

    Phase 4 trials: These trials are usually carried out after the drug or treatment has been approved by the FDA and is readily available for use in the general patient population. The purpose of Phase 4 trials is to continue to study the effects of the drug or treatment on different populations and to look for side effects associated with long-term use.
    Back to Top

    What is a Protocol:
    Clinical trials use written guidelines called protocols. The protocol explains what the trial hopes to accomplish, how the trial will be carried out, and why each part of the trial is necessary. For example, the protocol includes:

        * The reason for doing the trial
        * How many people will be in the trial
        * Who is eligible to take part in the trial
        * What study drugs participants will need to take
        * What medical tests participants will have and how often
        * What information will be gathered

    Every doctor or research center that takes part in the trial uses the same protocol. This makes sure that patients are treated identically no matter where they are receiving treatment, and that information from all the centers taking part can be combined and compared.

    Why Slow Production for Traditionally Produced (chicken eggs) Swine Flu Vaccine:
    One dose of swine flu vaccine for every two eggs, compared with two doses of
    seasonal flu vaccine per egg

    Sorry if the link does not work... it appears the Boston Globe newspaper appears to be playing games with link addresses... Just copy the link, and Google it.

    http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/10/22/quest_for_swine_flu_vaccine_giving_some_firms_a_boost/

    _____________________
    Brief Overview of Categories of H1N1/ Vaccine Investment Plays:

    I - Vaccines / Prevention
    1) Production Method / Capacity plays (NASDAQ:NVAX) (NASDAQ:VICL) (NYSE:NVS) (NASDAQ:INO)
    2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play (SVA - China) (NVAX - India)
    3) Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) (NYSE:BAX) (NYSE:BDX)
    4) Outsourced production plays
    5) Bio -Defence (MDCGF - France) 
    6) Anti-Mutation / Pan-Influenza Play (NYSEMKT:CVM) (NYSEMKT:NNVC) (INO)
    7) Universal Flu Vaccine Play (INO)

    II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
    1) Dealing with severe lung infections (Fludase® (DAS181)) (NYSE:CBM) (OTCQB:AEMD)
    2) ICU treatments (NASDAQ:BCRX) (NYSE:GSK) (NYSE:ROG)
    III - Population Avoidance:
    1) masks/ disinfectants… Surgical masks are good enough (NYSEMKT:APT) (NYSE:MMM) (NYSE:CLX) (NYSE:ECL) (OTCQB:PURE)

    IV - Testing do you have it? (NASDAQ:GPRO)
    1) Test kits - (NYSE:DGX)

    V - Merger / Acquisitions / Licensing (VICL) (NVAX)
    _____________________
    Sorry this is still a graphic instead of a table. I played with the table tool, but its a 
    PITA to work with. 

    Swine Flu Companies Discussed and Their Web Sites


    _____________________
    Swine Flu Hits Stuffed Animal World:



    2011 H1N1 US Flu Outbreak Map:
    Here is a link that gives information by US states.  The Link is from DoubleGuns
    tinyurl.com/6khyjq
    ___________________

    Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu:

    IF YOU ARE ILL -
    * Stay in a room separate from common areas of the home and avoid contact with others as much as possible.

    * Stay at home for at least 24 hours after their fever is gone without using medicine to reduce the fever.

    * Get lots of rest and drink plenty of fluids.

    * Consider wearing a facemask, if available and tolerable, when sharing common spaces with household members. (ed - surgical masks ok).

    * Check with your healthcare provider about whether to take antiviral medication, or if fever persists, whether antibiotics are needed.

    WHEN CARING FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS THE FLU -
    *Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces that everyone touches.

    * Use detergent and very hot water to do dishes and wash clothes. It's okay to wash everyone's dishes and clothes together. Wash your hands after handling dirty laundry.

    * Designate only one adult as the caregiver. People at increased risk of severe illness from the flu should not be caregivers.

    * Although not mentioned by the Red Cross, the caregiver should probably ware a surgical mask as well when entering the sick room.

    * Deal with crisis situations calmly and confidently to give the best support to the person being cared for.
    _____________________

    MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season 

    Click here to link to the Mayo tool:
    www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...

    _____________________
    Suggeted Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php

    After comparing more than two dozen possible scenarios for closing a school, the analysis suggested three optimal scenarios:

    1. A single-day influenza-related absentee rate of 5 percent

    2. Absenteeism of 4 percent or more on two consecutive days

    3. Absenteeism of 3 percent or more on three consecutive days



    Disclosure: NVAX, NNVC, SVA, VICL (sometimes trading, sometimes holding)
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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (167)
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  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We have all been wondering about the BARDA award, and the fact that it appears to be delayed. Today I started digging into the BARDA RFP (Request For Proposal). Here is what I have found so far...

     

    First I looked at the announcements that NVAXs proposal to provide recombinant influenza vaccine products and manufacturing capabilities for pandemic preparedness is in the competitive range for award of an advanced development contract. Here is one of the PR releases on this:

     

    -------------------------
    PR RELEASE:
    Novavax (NVAX) Gets Advanced Development Contract from BARDA and Dept. of HHS for Flu Vaccine
    April 22, 2010 8:22 AM EDT
    Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX) announced today that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), has determined the Company's proposal to provide recombinant influenza vaccine products and manufacturing capabilities for pandemic preparedness is in the competitive range for award of an advanced development contract. Novavax submitted its proposal in September 2009 in response to Solicitation No. HHS-BARDA-09-32 for development of a new influenza vaccine in a U.S. based manufacturing facility. 

The BARDA solicitation states that contracts will be awarded to vaccine manufacturers that satisfy several specific requirements. tinyurl.com/47cz8d6
    ----------------------...

     

    I next wanted to understand what those several specific requirements were, so I reviewed the RFP.... Here is one of the specific requirements in the RFP that caught my eye.

     

    ----------------------...
    One of the BARDA specific requirements:
    D. Conduct pivotal clinical studies in adult, elderly, and pediatric groups to assess the safety, immunogenicity, and cross- reactivity of recombinant influenza vaccines. Clinical study protocols and clinical endpoints shall be compatible with FDA guidelines for production and clinical evaluation of seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccines. Clinical assays to assess human specimens generated from study protocols shall be appropriately qualified and/or validated
    tinyurl.com/4ld5jjj
    ----------------------...

     

    Paragraph D specifies the required subject pool for the clinical trials. In this situation its adults, elderly, and PEDIATRIC. I now looked at the methods section of the just completed Mexican trials.

     

    -------------------
    Methods:
    This Phase II randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was conducted at a single study center in Mexico to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of 3 dose levels (5μg, 15μg, and 45μg HA) of the novel (H1N1) influenza VLP vaccine as compared with a placebo in healthy adults aged 18 to 64 years. tinyurl.com/4lxen5y
    -------------------

     

    What caught my eye here was the description of the experimental control. The placebo group serves as a control. What you want to do is make comparisons between similar groups or cohorts. The BARDA RFP describes those cohorts as adult, elderly, and pediatric. Notice that the control group description in the methods section consists of adults aged between 18 and 64 years old. This raises two specific questions.

     

    1) Did the Mexican clinical trial subject pool exclude pediatric respondents?

     

    2) If the study did exclude children, will the resultant clinical trials be accepted by BARDA as fulfillment of the requirements necessary to receive the award?

     

    I sent an email asking these questions to investor relations at NVAX ir@novavax.com.

     

    I will let you know if I get a response. In the mean time, I am still holding NVAX...
    20 Feb 2011, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    A big AHA! You have likely isolated at lest one possible reason for an extended negotiation with BARDA.

     

    NVAX likely has to convince BARDA, through a review of the technology, the enabling mechanisms, the results obtained in the groups from the study and a ... "hypothesis" that similar safety and efficacy results will be obtained in the pediatric population because of the similarities of the immune and other biologic systems, regardless of the age group.

     

    This might be difficult unless analogous studies can be found that support this hypothesis of similarities of outcome based on similarities of systems in varying age groups.

     

    I have no idea if such studies exist or would be sufficient even if they did exist.

     

    However, I could see funding for the next steps in the groups that were studied, with maybe a stipend to help in getting the earlier phases accomplished for the pediatric group, which should be much less expensive due to the smaller included age group.

     

    That might allow progression to a vaccine approved for use in age groups beyond the pediatric range, saving lives and costs across all age groups as the number of transmissions into the pediatric group should be reduced somewhat if there are fewer infections in older age groups that come in contact with, and therefore are possible transmitters of the infection to, the pediatric group.

     

    Therefore, regardless of the exclusion of the pediatric group from the earlier phases of study, expedited further trials and approval of a vaccine benefits all groups, including the pediatric group.

     

    And this is without risk since the VLP technology does not come into contact with pediatrics and is not capable of causing infection itself, as can be done with current live-virus based vaccines.

     

    Further benefit is gained if this strategy is followed as the number of opportunities for mutation to more virulent forms is reduced by the reduction of number of infected hosts.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    20 Feb 2011, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • racsbrugby
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Not to be rude, but you are completely off on this post. The quote you gave is from paragraph D of the Objective section of the BARDA RFP and it states that the company who gets the award must:

     

    " Conduct pivotal clinical studies in adult, elderly, and pediatric groups to assess the safety, immunogenicity, and cross- reactivity of recombinant influenza vaccines. Clinical study protocols and clinical endpoints shall be compatible with FDA guidelines for production and clinical evaluation of seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccines."

     

    you have failed to see that this is an "OBJECTIVE" that must be accomplished after the award has been contracted, not something that is a requirement to receive the award. It clearly states in the Article C2: OBJECTIVES that:

     

    "Contractor shall accomplish the following objectives associated with advanced development of recombinant seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccines within a 60 month performance period from the time of contract award"

     

    So the fact that there were no children enrolled in the Mexico Phase II trial is of no consequence to NVAX meeting the requirements to receive HHS-BARDA-9-32. After NVAX receives the award, then they will have to include children and the elderly in their phase III trial...
    21 Feb 2011, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    racsbrugby: First, welcome to this space of research, opinion and investment ideas. Thanks for offering your comments.

     

    Your point of whether or not pediatrics needed to be included in the Mexican Phase II study from both BARDA's and FDA's viewpoint makes complete sense. What I did not understand is why not include pediatrics? If this study must be completed here in the US, a further study then must include those under 18 years of age, as you wrote. Might as well have done the Mexican study inclusive of this group because, as I wrote above, school children spread most forms of influenza more rapidly than any other group. Measuring efficacy amongst this age group, I would think be of highest priority.

     

    Including pediatrics in the Mexican study, with successful results, may have therefore influenced BARDA toward granting the award sooner rather than later.

     

    I say this not only because I, and many ther commenters in this column, have active investments in Novavax, but also because I believe this technology is game changing and potentially benevolent toward all of humanity.

     

    Thanks again for your clarification.
    21 Feb 2011, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • racsbrugby
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Thanks for making me feel welcome :)

     

    I understand completely why you would have that question. The problem is that the rules for clinical studies become much more strict when it comes to testing on children and the elderly. The entire purpose of the Phase IIa in Mexico (first 1000 subjects) was to test for efficacy and dosage requirements for an expanded Phase IIb which would test for safety. The Phase II trials in Mexico (IIa and IIb) included 4500 adults and proved that the vaccine is effective, and more importantly SAFE to use. You could imagine now that they have shown the vaccine to be safe in a large scale adult study they have justification to now include higher risk groups such as children and the elderly in the Phase III trial. It wasn't required to test children or the elderly in order to receive the BARDA award, and would actually be ill-advised until safety studies were completed on adults. That is why I believe NVAX did not include children in their Mexico study.
    21 Feb 2011, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi Racsbrugby. I am sorry for not better elucidating my concern. Thank you Maya for pointing out the key issue.

     

    What I was trying to say was that if a company intends to develop a total population vaccine, where total population means coverage from Pediatric, Adults, and Elderly, why won't ALL clinical studies performed by the company be conducted within those three age cohorts?

     

    I understand that dealing with Pediatric and Elderly populations entails more concerns. However, if I was one of the reviewing researchers, I would very likely provide more of those 25 points awarded for the Technical Methodology and Approach section to a company that provided successful results for all three age cohorts as opposed to a company that provided successful results for adults.

     

    What I am looking for here is some reason as to why this BARDA award seems to be delayed. If other companies are going after this BARDA award, and BARDA knew they were conducting pre-studies using all three age cohorts, BARDA might hold up granting awards until they got finished proposals including full coverage of the target population.

     

    I received a reply from NVAX Finance & Legal Affairs to my inquiries. They said, "I can assure you we are still under consideration." Of course, this SOP did not answer my specific questions. I wish NVAX would be more responsive to their investors concerns.
    21 Feb 2011, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Fantastic insights and digging, User. Gives me some concern that Novavax did not conduct the Mexican study based on BARDA rules. In my mind, that's just plain stupid, unless Mexico would, for some reason, not allow testing to be done on those younger than 18.

     

    Can BARDA offer grants because of positive foreign testing results? I wouldn't think so. Especially if this study does not include the age group where influenza spreads the quickest.

     

    This could put Novavax on the precipice of a legal quagmire. And our shares in jeopardy.
    20 Feb 2011, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good questions Maya...

     

    I would think subjects are subjects so long as the study is conducted correctly. Mexico was selected because it was the first big outbreak of SF.

     

    However, not including a pre-specified age group does raise concerns. If the current study does not meet the BARDA requirements than this was known back at the start of the study. It would seem that withholding that kind of information would have a material effect on the stock price....

     

    I am keeping a very close eye on my NVAX investment.... Everything might be ok, but I really hope I get a reply from their investor relations people....

     

    I am having on-going concerns with respect to their managements ability to grow a functional business and collect the necessary capital without substantial dilution.
    20 Feb 2011, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Thanks bunches, User.

     

    I am thinking that Mexico might well NOT allow gringos to come south and run drug trials on their children...

     

    Seems to me to be a pretty common sense attitude.
    20 Feb 2011, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    LoL!

     

    Whereas *we* gringos *demand* drug trials on our children (and don't even get me started on the number of vaccines our children have to get now to get into school that are suspected of causing increased rates of ADD and other ills I can't recall the acronyms of ATM that have spiked for "no apparent reason" over the last few decades).

     

    Mercury anyone?

     

    HardToLove
    20 Feb 2011, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    (APRI): I suggest all take a look at this and be sure to read the comments in the article.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic....

     

    I also posted some links in the prior Swine Flu Concentrator, near the bottom.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    HardToLove
    20 Feb 2011, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    (VICL): 2/16/11 "Vical Receives U.S. Patent for Cytomegalovirus Vaccines"

     

    "... covering DNA vaccines for cytomegalovirus (CMV) containing specific gene sequences and formulated with Vical's Vaxfectin® adjuvant".

     

    Lots of information about it here.

     

    globenewswire.com/news...

     

    HardToLove
    22 Feb 2011, 06:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    (VICL): 2/22/11 "Vical Extends Collaboration With U.S. Government for Emerging Disease Vaccines"

     

    "... extended its relationship with the U.S. Naval Medical Research Center (NMRC) to develop its platform technology for the rapid development and production of vaccines against emerging infectious diseases.

     

    Vical received U.S. government funding from Defense Threat Reduction Agency and NMRC in 2010 to support development of its Vaxfectin®-formulated DNA vaccine against H1N1 pandemic influenza, which is expected to complete Phase 1 testing in the first quarter of 2011. With additional funding under the extended relationship, Vical will work with NMRC under this contract to establish systems and procedures for the application of Vical's DNA delivery technology, with the goal of protecting military personnel from the threat of new pathogens in the early stages of outbreaks.

     

    "Vical's technology is designed to allow extremely rapid and safe vaccine development without direct handling of the pathogen," said Larry R. Smith, Ph.D., Vical's Vice President of Vaccine Research".

     

    globenewswire.com/news...

     

    HardToLove
    22 Feb 2011, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    An off-topic piece, but I thought it might be interesting.

     

    "Court Protects Vaccine Manufacturers, Not Injured Children
    Supreme Court Decides Bruesewitz v. Wyeth 6-2, Foreclosing Civil Lawsuits for Vaccine Design Defect"

     

    www.coalitionforvaccin...

     

    Thanks to Scotttk @ Yahoo!

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2011, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Interesting, if true. That's one where I would like to see what a Constitutional scholar thinks...
    23 Feb 2011, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Take this for whatever it means. Today's Novavax action is molasses slow. But the buy volume so far today stands at 60,318. Sell volume is 12,507. That's a 5:1 buying ratio! Haven't seen that in a while.

     

    Right now there are 25,200 shares bidding for $2.25, and only 1,500 shares asking $2.26.

     

    Novavax to be presenting at the Citi 2011 Global Health Care Conference in New York, March 3.
    24 Feb 2011, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Schulyer is saying BARDA award to be made any day now, for what that's worth. We're close.
    24 Feb 2011, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Time to put the ear to the tracks and listen it would seem.

     

    It's an old indian trick.

     

    Hey quit laughing.....It worked for trians. It should work for the Barda express.
    25 Feb 2011, 05:41 AM Reply Like
  • Merck-VLP
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
     
    PM. dirty trick ... MMs playing?
    25 Feb 2011, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Why is NVAX down 22 cents pre-market? No news on Yahoo! F.
    25 Feb 2011, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    3/4 days after options expiration week - normal IIRC? Although much greater magnitude than normal.

     

    Watch volume after open - extended hours is often flaky!

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb 2011, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Flaky indeed. 2000 share sold pre-market for $2.11? I almost had a panic attack!
    25 Feb 2011, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Beer, beer works for panic attacks. I've never had one. *hic
    25 Feb 2011, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Just an FYI.

     

    PPS greater than 20, 200 day SMA now and 20 is rising while 200 is still falling for the last month and a half or so. PPS is bumping the 100 day SMA, which is fising and 50 day SMA is falling to meet PPS.

     

    Significantly, IMO, PPS has now re-entered the trend, above the support line. However, this support *may* have moved lower - we'll have to wait and see where the future touch points occur to determine if the old support or the new lower or an entirely new support is in play.

     

    On a short-term Fibonacci (range of $2.66 on 1/10 down to $2.11 on 1/31) PPS is above the 38.2% ($2.32) mark and is at a prior resistance of ~$2.35 (lst had effect 1/26) and trying to move to the next Fib, 50% @ $2.39). Making higher lows and highs, but on volume which does not support a certainty of trend yet. I think if it can get above the 100 day SMA ($2.35 Friday, the same as our high Friday) and close there a couple of days, the rising trend in PPS is likely to stay intact until next options expiration week.

     

    On an intermediate-term Fibonacci (12/28/10 high of $2.72 and 1/31 low of $2.11) PPS is right at the 38.2% ($2.34) point. If PPS moves above that, it should continue to ~ $2.42, the 50% point and a prior support area from 1/3 and 1/7.

     

    We're a week beyond options expiration week now, so if the "cyclicality" is in effect, we should see a general rise over the next couple of weeks.

     

    We've had a large bullish increase in July 16 $3 strike calls (OI now 1208 and 485 at other higher and lower strikes) and the April $3 strikes have added a couple hundred more (OI 1405 and another 842 at other strikes) and March 19th strikes total only 359 at all strikes.

     

    In the April and July contracts, I *do* see transactions that could support the OI, so I don't have the feeling that they are being manipulated as when I previously commented on the April, and other months, open interest last December and January.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Feb 2011, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Bird flu spreading to Korea.

     

    www.silobreaker.com/fr...
    28 Feb 2011, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Questions about 142 HUMAN cases of bird flu in kurdish Iraq. Still trying to figure out if this really is bird flu.

     

    crofsblogs.typepad.com...
    28 Feb 2011, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Does bird flu + swine flu = super flu?

     

    Thought this might be a good refresher with the bird flu floating around Asia.

     

    news.sciencemag.org/sc...
    28 Feb 2011, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    DG, is that another "when pigs fly" joke?
    28 Feb 2011, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Yeehaaaaaaww! Novavax closed at $2.60!
    28 Feb 2011, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    After hours still moving, now $2.80! Wooooweeee!
    28 Feb 2011, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): HHS award 3 year $97MM pact for flue vaccnine technology.

     

    More details when it show someplace beside Dow Jones.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Feb 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Total value: $179Million. This will lead to partnerships for sure!
    ----
    HHS: Novavax Pact Can Be Extended For Addtl 2 Yrs, For Total Value Of $179.1M >NVAX
    28 Feb 2011, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for your help Mitshu!
    28 Feb 2011, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Here is the HHS PR (I don't think this has been posted here yet):

     

    www.businesswire.com/n...
    28 Feb 2011, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    More NVAX news out today!!

     

    Novavax Announces Agreement To License Its Proprietary, Recombinant VLP Vaccine Technology To LG Life Sciences

     

    www.prnewswire.com/new...

     

    -- 15 million dose South Korean market

     

    -- LG to build manufacturing facility with 30 million dose influenza vaccine capacity
    ROCKVILLE, Md., Feb. 28, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: seekingalpha.com/symbo...) announced today an agreement to license its proprietary, recombinant virus-like-particle (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) vaccine technology to LG Life Sciences, Ltd. (seekingalpha.com/symbo...). Under the agreement, LGLS receives an exclusive license to manufacture, develop and commercialize influenza vaccines using Novavax's recombinant VLP technology in South Korea. LGLS also receives a non-exclusive license to manufacture, develop and commercialize influenza VLP vaccines in certain emerging market countries.

     

    LGLS will be responsible for funding clinical development and licensure of influenza VLP vaccines in South Korea and other countries, and for construction of a new VLP vaccine manufacturing facility planned at LGLS's Osong campus in South Korea. Novavax will receive upfront and milestone payments from LGLS in addition to double-digit royalty rate payments from commercial sales. Novavax will provide VLP technology transfer and manufacturing support for LGLS's new vaccine production facility.

     

    Dr. Rahul Singhvi, CEO and President of Novavax, stated: "LGLS is an affiliate of LG, a global conglomerate. LGLS is a leading provider of vaccines to supranational health organizations such as UNICEF and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). We welcome this opportunity to develop a recombinant influenza vaccine solution for South Korea and other countries served by LGLS. This new partnership with LGLS is further validation of our VLP technology and, as we have done previously with our joint venture in India with Cadila Pharmaceuticals, further expands our development efforts into new territories. LGLS will help us advance our technology in Korea and other countries, consistent with our commercial strategy of developing regional partnerships and in-country manufacturing solutions with leading pharmaceutical companies around the world."

     

    Dr. Iljae Jung, CEO and President of LGLS, commented: "We look forward to working closely with Novavax in advancing the VLP influenza vaccines for people around the world. We anticipate that Novavax and LGLS together will make significant achievements in the field of influenza vaccines with our technology, expertise and combined resources."
    28 Feb 2011, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Wow, this is an amazing partnership. I hope this news doesn't get "lost" in the BARDA news tomorrow.

     

    "LGLS is an affiliate of LG, a global conglomerate"

     

    I guess this is where Rahul was when he was a no-show at the presentation last week!

     

    Flood gates are opening!!
    28 Feb 2011, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    We did it!

     

    Champagne for everyone!
    28 Feb 2011, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hmmm... I was playing HT's cycle theory and added to my position today at $2.30. Its up 11.54% at the close.
    28 Feb 2011, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): This should move is *solidly* back into the mid/higher range of our long-term trend that we ID'd some months back.

     

    I believe a cyclic nature will still be play, but at a higher range.

     

    What we have to consider now, *if* one of my other *theories* holds water, is what options market makers will do if we see a big surge in call buying, which I would expect initially, balanced by what they might do if price really pops and lots of folks buy puts at an elevated price.

     

    This could get interesting *unless* the market makers start playing it "straight", only out of necessity of course.

     

    It's not in their nature to do it without cause.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    28 Feb 2011, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Whiskers worked on that one, User!

     

    One of my better days in my gamer account has occurred today.
    28 Feb 2011, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    Wiskers, my A$$! I claim credit for this one - I need 1,000 "Atta Boys" to offset the *many* "Aw $h*ts" I've accumulated! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    28 Feb 2011, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    How about 100000000000000000 attaboys!

     

    Thanks, HTL! Your work in this space has been truly insightful.

     

    28 Feb 2011, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    1000 attaboys, whilst kneeling at the alter of Love. "Hard to Love" he says "and don't forget it".

     

    Thanks HTL

     

    Thanks USER

     

    Thanks All.
    28 Feb 2011, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    171,826 shares traded AH!
    28 Feb 2011, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Congrats to all!

     

    I've got only the one pharma right now, and thank goodness its NVAX.
    28 Feb 2011, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Short Squeeze a roonie!!! Humming Michael Jacksons 'Beat it' song substituting the words... Eat It! Eat it!
    28 Feb 2011, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Sheesh! Trading at $2.95!
    28 Feb 2011, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Some shorts are trying to beat the morning rush hour...
    28 Feb 2011, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    I agree. Remind us to watch for the changes over the next two reports - that should verify if that's what it is. Next one should look "normal", but the one after ought to show a nice drop as there's not much room to "hammer" the PPS and little reason to attempt it with the long interest that has hung in so far.

     

    However, profit taking could occur, so we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Feb 2011, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Never too early to go into, "What to do, now?" mode.

     

    Tomorrow, we should see continued rise, as the options peeps chase things up.

     

    !%%%%%! (best I could do to imitate champagne bubbles!)
    28 Feb 2011, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    You forgot the *hic.

     

    There I did it for you. *hic, *hic.

     

    Over doing the champagne. I think. *hic

     

    We still have IBIO to look at for this chat. Unless I missed something a while back.
    28 Feb 2011, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    That's certainlya good "emoticon" for the bubbly!

     

    I move the 'Gades adopt it as the "official" success symbol.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Feb 2011, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    Touched $3! And let's not forget Freya said she thought it would get back there.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Feb 2011, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    *hic, I fote for vat.
    28 Feb 2011, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    Or all eights? <888888> I don't think it looks as "bubbly" though.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Feb 2011, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): To all,

     

    We know how this behaves and it will also have, after the euphoria fades, the normal price actions.

     

    This will include some throwbacks, reversions to some mean, cyclicality, market ADD taking hold again, shorts becoming emboldened at some point, ...

     

    I suggest picking a good high price and either shorting some calls, with a strike with which you are comfortable, or buying some puts, with the same consideration, to either garner some premium or protect against the down side.

     

    Both of these provide *some* risk management and make it easier to watch the ups and downs with less angst.

     

    As you know, my preference is to short calls.

     

    Just something to consider.

     

    HardToLove.
    28 Feb 2011, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    What makes me happiest, even though I own waaaay more shares, is that I got both my sister and 23 year old nephew into Novavax. I was becoming worried. No more.

     

    I want to see what happens tomorrow, but my thinking is if this baby jumps to $4.40 tomorrow, I will have ~ doubled. May sell half, and let the rest rock'n and roll.
    28 Feb 2011, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • ChadUnderwood3
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    your 24*** year old nephew thanks you
    1 Mar 2011, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Welcome aboard, Nephew! You're 24? Dang!
    1 Mar 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Maya - do what is right for you, of course, but my advise is to not sell anything in the $4 range. We know multiple partnerships are coming - just one of them will send nvax much higher than the $4-range. It's going to be some wild trading for a while, but I'm not letting any shares go anywhere in the $4's after all we have been through with the company and share price!

     

    Also:

     

    NOVAVAX Special Investor Conference Call and Webcast
    March 1, 2011 10:00 am
    Real time Dial-in: 1-877-212-6076 (domestic) or 1-707-287-9331 (international)
    Replay dial-in: 1-800-642-1687 (domestic) or 1-706-645-9291 (international), conference ID: 48683057
    Webcast: Click here.

     

    www.novavax.com/go.cfm...
    28 Feb 2011, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Looking forward to the "range" of what-to-do now thoughts. We do own something potentially game-changing. But there's a reason why the awarded contract was for over a matter of years.

     

    And, that back half of the contract could always be removed, if the US gets real austere. Or, someone else develops a better, cheaper way. Just great to see all the waiting get paid off.

     

    Do you know if there is a special kind of needle or injection system required for these new vaccines?

     

    28 Feb 2011, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Hoping this translates well!

     

    ! !
    ! % % %!
    ! % % % !
    ! % % !
    !%%%%%%%%%%%%%!
    !%%%%%%%%%%%%!
    !%%%%%%%%%%%!
    !%%%%%%%%%%!
    !%%%%%%%%%!
    !%%%%%%%%!
    !%%%%%%%!
    !%%%%%%!
    !%%%%%!
    !%%%%!
    !%%%!
    ####
    ####
    ####
    ####
    ####
    ####
    ####
    ####
    ####
    ####
    ####
    ##########
    ##############
    #################
    28 Feb 2011, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Still cool.
    1 Mar 2011, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Dang. Did not translate! Was supposed to be a full and bubbling champagne flute. But hey, it turned into a half a martini glass! Love it!
    28 Feb 2011, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Artists always get under appreciated. The first EVER attempt at SA art gets not only mutated, but also sliced in half, and yet only gets two thumbs up?

     

    On this day? Rough crowd.

     

    Glad to help the ghost followers, too!
    28 Feb 2011, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • Irieman
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Hello Everyone,

     

    Long time lurker, first time poster. Just wanted to express my many thanks to HTL, Maya, User, Mitshu, triple, doubleguns, and everyone else who have been unknowingly supporting me (and quite a few other people) with insight, analysis, research, and humor. You all have been just amazing. Congrats to all longs here for their fortitude and perseverance. NVAX joruney has just begun. I hope everyone here will keep posting and sharing their knowledge and wisdom and friendship. And I hope this wonderful group of investors and human beings will keep this thread going even after NVAX has come to full fruition however many years down the road.

     

    Thanks again!
    28 Feb 2011, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thank you very much Irieman! You made my day.
    1 Mar 2011, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There were 8.97M shares short as of Feb 15.....
    28 Feb 2011, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    AH and PM not even close to the short number of shares. Seems this is gonna be a much bigger move. just bought 4000 more at $3.32.
    1 Mar 2011, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ye Ha!!! Guns...
    1 Mar 2011, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    "Ye Ha!!!"

     

    What the hello is that?! A Left Coast version of ... YEE-HAWW!?

     

    :-))

     

    HardToLove
    1 Mar 2011, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well I have to admit yours is much better HT. As is your smile face...
    1 Mar 2011, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    His smile face might be better but that tiny purple butt is so cute!!

     

    Just saying....not interested. LOL
    1 Mar 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    LoL DG! Brightened my day even more!

     

    HardToLove
    1 Mar 2011, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): After hours 2/28, was a noticeable *wee* increase in volume and price last night: 871,961 shares traded, last @ $3.59. >:-))

     

    Since 10 day average volume as of Friday, 2/25/11, was 610.957K, AH was by itself was 42.72% higher than average..

     

    At 7:31 this A.M., the play seemed to still be progressing as we had 41,397 traded, high of $3.70, and it's mot even 8:00 yet!

     

    www.nasdaq.com/aspxcon...

     

    That link only shows last nights AH and today's pre-market today, of course.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Mar 2011, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Been watching the pre-market, too. Brisk transactions this morning with 677,635 shares traded.
    1 Mar 2011, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5039) | Send Message
     
    NVAX got the BARDA!
    Also,got a contract in Korea yesterday ( I posted it on the QC.)

     

    NOVAVAX Awarded HHS-BARDA Contract Valued at up to $179 Million to Develop Pandemic and Seasonal Influenza Vaccines for U.S. Government Using Recombinant VLP Technology

     

    -- Contract Includes $97 Million 3-year Base Period and $82 Million 2-year Option Period

     

    -- Base Period Will Fund Seasonal Influenza Vaccine through Phase 3 and Potential FDA Licensure; Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Candidates through Phase 1/2 Clinical Trials

     

    -- Includes Development of Manufacturing Plan to Establish a U.S.-based Facility with Surge Manufacturing Capacity of 50 Million Doses within Six Months of Influenza Pandemic

     

    Company to Hold Investor Conference Call 10:00 am ET Today
    1 Mar 2011, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    $3.12 is intraday support, so far.
    1 Mar 2011, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Greetings all. I have a short break in the action and dropped by to catch up. I see plenty has been happening in my absence. Long awaited BARDA issued and some significant corporate activity. Perhaps I should go into exile more often as (NVAX) has doubled while I wasn't looking. Took off like a scalded dog this morning as well. Thanks to all who have provided support during the long wait for this one to break out.
    1 Mar 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5039) | Send Message
     
    I am listening to the conference call right now. The license they granted to LG in S. Korea hooks them up with world organizations, among them UNICEF.
    It's a wonderful conference call.
    The BARDA award also will result in building another facility.
    1 Mar 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Profit taking in progress, and premature imo...
    1 Mar 2011, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Guess so. This trading is really disappointing, but I guess shouldn't be surprising with how the price has been managed historically. I do think we're way undervalued here, so hopefully we'll see a steady price increase for a while. Doesn't seem like a lot of short covering. Ugh, the fight goes on. We could see a second big announcement at any time - we know the Board approved 2 things in November - I suspect the LG deal was one of them. The other might be just as large and announced shortly.
    1 Mar 2011, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    Something I learned recently is that long institutional holder, especially hedge funds, will short at the highs and cover at the lows, not so much for profit, but as protection against adverse moves.

     

    So we might expect that as short-only folks are frenetically covering, longs may be hedging by shorting into the rally. The bigger the holdings and the more hedge-oriented the institution the more likely this seems to me.

     

    That's why last night I was thinking I don't need to close out my short April call positions yet. I'll just let them ride, hoping they don't get exercised, and roll them forward and up after the time value has mostly dissipated.

     

    I do expect we will get back under $3 as the usual euphoria, momentum players, ... return to normal.

     

    I may end up being wrong, but this is a long-term scenario.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Mar 2011, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5039) | Send Message
     
    Mitsu, you think they have something else to announce besides BARDA and S Korea/LG? If so, won't they do that when they announce their quarterly numbers? Isn't another conference call coming up soon?
    1 Mar 2011, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    I do think at least 1 more partnership will be announced shortly (I'd guess sometime in March, but that's a total guess). I don't think it would be done with their quarterly call (it seems to me they don't really release anything new on those calls - it's just a review of financials and what has been accomplished). In Lamberts resignation letter, he referred to the Board approvals to move forward on on 2 issues, so I do think we're close on something else (plus Rahul keeps saying they have been approchaed by "multiple partners").

     

    I believe there are 3 conferences that NVAX is attending this week (maybe this week & next) and I believe they are being web-cast. One is a Latin America conference, so that could be pretty important. Any big news will be a seperate PR like yesterday. I would have liked to see them release the BARDA news yesterday and then wait another day for the LG news. Rolling them into the same day just doesn't get the same stock price appreciation.

     

    I have seen other stocks which got BARDA grants move up some 40-50% on the news. We'll be lucky to close out today with a 15% gain from the looks of things.

     

    I wasn't able to listen to today's special shareholder meeting, but was hoping there would be some Mexico and/or India update. Doesn't sound like they were discussed, but I'm planning to listen tonight.
    1 Mar 2011, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Any way you look at this they just went from "insignificant" to "player".
    1 Mar 2011, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    This sucks! $2.97 support established Apr 29 2010!
    1 Mar 2011, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Unreal. We're back in the Terrible 2's once again...
    1 Mar 2011, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Turns out the champagne flute turned half a martini glass was prophetic. More than half the gains from last night have evaporated.
    1 Mar 2011, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Silver needs some champagne once it hits $35 Maya keep that bottle handy. I still think NVAX is something to celebrate.
    1 Mar 2011, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5039) | Send Message
     
    Did anyone see this ME Garza comment?
    "M. E. Garza: $NVAX hits 52-week high. We're looking for similar news from $CBLI in days ahead."
    1 Mar 2011, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    2 Excerpts:
    Roth Capital Partners says that Novavax’s (NASDAQ:NVAX) new BARDA vaccine contract and agreement to license its VLP vaccine technology to LG Life Sciences of South Korea represents “two grand slams that place Novavax on a new playing field.”

     

    He reiterated his “buy” rating on Novavax and 12-month price target of 8. The stock jumped 33% or 85 cents to $3.45 in early trading Tuesday.

     

    biotuesdays.com/2011/0.../
    1 Mar 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): COnsider stuff such as this in your deliberations.

     

    Float 97.3MM
    Traded so far: 12,003,342
    % of float traded by 13:41: 12.34%

     

    Calls of all strikes and expirations traded today: 3,090+ (equiv. to 309K shares - more than total daily volume seen on some recent days prior to the news)

     

    If retailers are buying calls, market maker may be buying, ... or not (this has effect down the road as the market maker may manipulate price to benefit his position)

     

    If retailers are shorting calls and market makers are buying to provide liquidity (and make their fees), market makers will be shorting the equity, most likely. Ditto for market makers selling puts, but there has been little put options volume, so we can ignore that right now.

     

    Another possibility is retailers who sold covered calls (shorted) could be closing their positions, fearing that they'll have to sell at, e.g., $3 when stock is priced at $4, $5, ... If the longs on the other side of these shorts were market makers, they may have shorted at the time they became long and would now cover by buying. If they didn't short at the time they became long, they don't have to do anything - they have their fees and premium profits locked in.

     

    So, short-term, considering options action now and in the past, the volume and price action should not be surprising.

     

    As I stated earlier, sub-$3 price is what I expected. And yesterday I said I expect it would come back down and I think it will fall back in trend.

     

    For an investor, this is not a concern. For a trader, you need to consider the possibility.

     

    I can't state with conviction that I think I'm right about what will happen, but I do have those possibilities on my radar.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Mar 2011, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    I just dropped Rachael a note alerting her to the current Troll attack. Currently 10 thumbs down on each comment on the current QC. So far 4 on each here. I suspect this Insta will end up with 10 each as well. Our Trolls have definitely found a way to circumvent the actions taken by SA staff and have it in for the Gades. I find it very strange since most of us are profiting handily from our shared efforts. Oh well they can thumb down all of my comments add infinitum as I'm here for the shared profits and comradery not individual recognition. So thumb away Troll I'll laugh all the way to the bank.
    1 Mar 2011, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Rob enjoy your trip to the bank. Ka-ching!!!

     

    Whilst the troll sits in his mommas basement picking his nose and pouting because momma took his centerfold away and he has no material to work with so to speak. Obviously he is very pissed and bored so he spends his pathetic life putting check marks on comments. I guess it adds some level of value to his contemptibly inadequate existence.
    1 Mar 2011, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Yee Haw, he feathered me. whoosh right on by with 4 check marks, whoooo hooooo. How pathetic.
    1 Mar 2011, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • Irieman
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Hello,

     

    Troll or not, all the regulars on this board are welcome to come get some free sushi from my sushi bars if you live around Hampton Roads in VA or are just passing through. I run a sushi franchise, and my sushi is, if I may say so, pretty alright. The regulars posters shall get a free sushi party tray custom made from me. My way of expressing thanks.
    1 Mar 2011, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Being that I lived in Japan 10 years and am married to a Native Japanese I will gladly take you up on that if I ever make it your way.

     

    That was really nice of you to offer that Irieman. Thank-you very much. It is a very nice gesture.

     

    Another reason I always say we have to be concerned for the followers. They might not make many comments but their financial situation is effected by them understanding what we are talking about. In the midst of all of our joking.
    1 Mar 2011, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    I get up there about twice a year for art shows (Virginia Beach and Fredricksburg, though I am looking to add 2 more in the DC area). I just might drop you a line...

     

    Thanks for the very kind offer. We know who our friends are...
    2 Mar 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Irieman: Much appreciated. I love sushi!
    1 Mar 2011, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Irieman: Greetings. I don't get up to that neck of the woods but I certainly appreciate the offer. Thanks and good profits upon your restaurants and your portfolio.
    2 Mar 2011, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Hey, the check marks have dropped off. One troll has been killed it appears. Now down to 3 check marks and 9 check marks.

     

    A white knight has arrived, a troll killer is amongst us. Yee haw!!!
    1 Mar 2011, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Appears one was killed but another was hatched out of the dung heap.
    2 Mar 2011, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    They breed like cockroaches.
    2 Mar 2011, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5039) | Send Message
     
    Trolls, click here:
    mariokenny.files.wordp...
    2 Mar 2011, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    That's hilarious, OG!
    2 Mar 2011, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL... alas trolls don't know how to read.
    2 Mar 2011, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    I dont think we can buy enough. Damn they are thick in here.
    2 Mar 2011, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    An early guess, but it looks like NVAX has bottomed at $2.73 today. I would expect $2.73 to serve as support long term from here.

     

    Darn near peeled off some shares!
    2 Mar 2011, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Maya - just an fyi, I sold some nvax yesterday at a little over $3. I was afraid this might happen today. Just can't get 2 good days in a row here. I did buy a chunk of aezs (they are actively seeking & close to announcing an Asia partner, so am hoping for a 30%-40% pop in that one soon).

     

    I think the only thing that is really going to make nvax move (and stay) at a higher level is a buyout (which I still believe is likely, probably after one more big partnership is announced).
    2 Mar 2011, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SA is very flaky today... I cold not post the new SF concentrator... will try again tonight.
    2 Mar 2011, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    I know, I had a heckuva time with the QC. Had to go with less than I had hoped because of all the problems.
    2 Mar 2011, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): $2.78 puts it back at trend resistance.

     

    Over next few days, lower as it embeds more firmly in the trend, IMO.

     

    It still has the gap to close at $2.60 and no signs of anything to prevent that closure.

     

    Sorry to have been the consistent "negative nelly" here, but reality has a way of smacking us if we're not in tune with it.

     

    NVAX was and still is a long-term play for me. The results of the new money injection bodes well for down-the-road but, other than the stupid (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) radical pop, nothing short-term changes and that means momentum traders, shorts, institutionals, ... will do what they've been doing until it doesn't work for them anymore.

     

    The day *is* coming when it doesn't work, but down the road.

     

    IMO, as long as it stays pretty much in trend, we needn't worry, as we did briefly, about "no results". The partnership and HHS award makes the short-term "no results" of no consequence now.

     

    Of consequence now is making some money with what it does while we wait. Reduce opportunity cost.

     

    To that end, trade around a core, buy low, sell high, use options, cycles, ...

     

    All MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    P.S. April $3 strike calls continue to rise (+296 already today) so you can be sure the market makers won't let it be there on 4/16. Only a catalyst would put it there. IMHO.
    2 Mar 2011, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Not much of an upgrade, IMO. $4 target for Piper, a "Neutral" rating from Zacks (not sure what the Dec. reference is though - may be a typo or just an old note from Zacks?).
    ----
    Equities research analysts at Piper Jaffray (NYSE: seekingalpha.com/symbo...) boosted their price target on shares of Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: seekingalpha.com/symbo...) to $4.00 in a research note to investors on Tuesday.

     

    Separately, analysts at Zacks Investment Research reiterated a “neutral” rating on shares of Novavax, Inc. in a research note to investors on Tuesday, December 28th.

     

    Novavax, Inc. (Novavax) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing recombinant vaccines. The Company’s technology platform is based on the virus-like particles (VLPs). The VLPs are genetically engineered three-dimensional nanostructures, which incorporate immunologically important recombinant proteins. Recombinant protein-based vaccines are used and accepted. The production technology uses insect cells rather than chicken eggs or mammalian cells. In May 209, the Company produced the first batch of non-cGMP influenza A (H1N1) VLP vaccine candidate. In October 2009, Novavax, initiated a two-stage clinical trial of the H1N1 vaccine candidate in Mexico in collaboration with Laboratorio Avi-Mex S.A. de C.V. (Avimex). The Company have also developed the vaccine candidates for both respiratory syncytial virus (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) and varicella zoster virus (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), both of which are being evaluated in pre-clinical studies.

     

    Shares of Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: seekingalpha.com/symbo...) traded down 6.08% during mid-day trading on Wednesday, hitting $2.78. Novavax, Inc. has a 52 week low of $1.94 and a 52 week high of $3.50. The stock’s 50-day moving average is $2.33 and its 200-day moving average is $2.31. The company has a market cap of $308.9 million.
    2 Mar 2011, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry gang, still can't post a new concentrator... The post button is not working... I even tried to post a test insta to see if length was the problem... its not... the post button is not working...

     

    I have an email into technical support...
    3 Mar 2011, 05:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    User: David Jackson wrote to me a couple of days ago that SA is working on redoing the home page. Earlier, I couldn't thumbs up in QC. Likely, the SA geeks are working OT right now.
    3 Mar 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Closed the gap to $2.64. Low so far $2.63. This penetrated potential support @ ~$2.66. ~$2.53 looks like next available level of potential support.

     

    Well within the longer-term trading range now, which today looks to be $2.13-$2.79 and rising a few cents/month.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    This is not what I expected after the BARDA news, let alone the surprise LG news. I still believe we'll see at least 1 more partnership announcement soon (this month, hoping, hoping). If we get that and any kind of decent bounce, I'll be 100% out. I have been selling shares this week based on the price action and since it looks like NVAX won't have a product on the market for at least 3 more years. I have already made more $ in the past 2 days on the 2 other stocks I bought with my proceeds than I have made in NVAX over the past 2+ years. I'm unwilling to keep my $ tied up in NVAX for another 2-3 years while almost all other stocks go up and we do nothing but go down except for an occassional day here and there. Maybe I'll miss a big pop from a buy-out, but that's the risk of investing I guess.

     

    Anyway, I still hold a few shares of NVAX along with a lot of call options, in the event we do see a buyout happen in the not too distant future. I'm buying AEZS & AUGT if anyone is interested. I won't be posting much on this thread about NVAX any more...just watching & waiting for any partnership/buyout news that may happen sometime.

     

    Luck to all. I think there are better investment opportunities than NVAX (though I do like the story for long, long term investing), and I must say I'm really shocked that it hasn't sky-rocketed now that I have sold big chunks of my holdings!! I finally concede defeat on NVAX after all this time.
    4 Mar 2011, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    Sorry you had to exit like that. That's the reason that when I first entered it I shorted calls. My cost basis is much lower now and so I see myself actually making a reasonable ROR in this fashion.

     

    My risk, of course, is that the pop comes and my shares get taken for much less than market, but as I posted last time I did the calculations, I make 46%(?) if that happens and 12% if it doesn't.

     

    That way the opportunity cost is much lower than if I just sat on them.

     

    Good fortune on your other endeavors, and don't be a stranger!

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2011, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    MItshu: Thanks for all you efforts and guidance. Hoping you stop into Quick Chat every once in a while. Thanks for your recommendations, too.

     

    I scurried home from Atlantic City, flipped on the puter and took profits on 5000 shares. Still have 3033 shares.
    4 Mar 2011, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Mitshu, stop by TB's REE concentrator. There is money to be made there.
    4 Mar 2011, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Yes, do come. You will be most welcome!
    5 Mar 2011, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the invite...I'll check it out in the near future.
    6 Mar 2011, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Most of my holdings sold with a trailing stop. I sold the rest the other day when I saw the trend.
    4 Mar 2011, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    I hope you came out OK. If you had mentioned in the PM, I might have given a different answer.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2011, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes... I made some good profits on it...
    4 Mar 2011, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5039) | Send Message
     
    glad you didn't listen to me, User.
    4 Mar 2011, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    I went deeper in on hopes for a quick 10% pop but instead I am deeper in debt and another day older but its in the 401k so I have time to wait it out.
    4 Mar 2011, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    I still have 2000 shares at a decent average cost per share.

     

    I am ahead of the game on this one, but not doing any handsprings, thats certain.

     

    This is one of those stocks which confounds me, really.
    5 Mar 2011, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Me too.... I don't understand what happened...

     

    I suspect the latest short data will provide some insights... I am wondering if some big players got caught on the timing, and rather than take a bath, they just naked shorted and drove the price down.... Its a low vol stock, so after the big pop, they might be able to drop that price easily.
    5 Mar 2011, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    I started to post something on this yesterday, but decided it sounded too much like "blowing my own horn".

     

    If I've missed something just holler.

     

    I've been playing this exactly as dictated by all the information we've gathered for a long-term hold with occasional trading or options opportunities.

     

    I've played it exactly within the parameters indicated by my best effort at chart analysis combined with considerations that pop up in exogenous events and consideration of the information provided by folks here.

     

    The expectations of "an award", the trend lines, the "cyclicality", the past behavior, ...

     

    I've missed some moves. I've hit some moves.

     

    But I said it would come back in trend from this latest pop. It has. I said it would fill the gap. It has.

     

    This is not to brag - my ego is well in check and needs no (serious) reinforcement. What I'm trying to say, in effect, is "Don't Fight the Tape" here.

     

    I'm also trying to get out here that (NVAX) is a long-term play; *is* for now at least trading in the trends, pops notwithstanding, and will continue to do so until it has reason not to.

     

    A good example is the recent pop and re-trace.

     

    The pop was nice and for a trader looking for the short-term profit, a sell was the right move.

     

    But as I predicted in this insta (or a pror one?), it did close the gap and it did come back into trading range we identified in the past. I believe it will also exhibit the "cyclicality", with variations of course, going forward.

     

    Why is this? Because, IMO, what the HHS award did was just provide a higher degree of financial certainty. This means immediate reduced likelihood of dilution going forward and the possibility of better cash-flow metrics going forward.

     

    It also helps bring actual product to the market sooner with less risk.

     

    But these things take a long time and the momentum players will not be in this stock, except briefly. The institutional holders are already mostly in if they wanted to be in. The retail investor has become disillusioned, for the most part, and is tired of the disappointments, as several of us expressed recently.

     

    All this equates to no substantial sustained buying pressure. This also equates to a more-or-less flat PPS behavior, in general. Only catalysts and the market waves move price over the long haul right now.

     

    Volatility, for the most part, comes around options expiration weeks as market makers do their thing. Small waves are seen leading up to these periods and small waves after these periods. When something causes retail investors to buy more calls, we can count on the market makers to try and disappoint them. And that is a tough thing for me to *guess* what the options market maker position is. If the MM is covered, behavior is one way. If naked, another way.

     

    These are things that, although can not be proven, we have identified as seeming to be affecting PPS in the past. And it seems to have been pretty reliable so far.

     

    Another thing that has been reliable so far is the general long-term rise in the PPS range in which the stock tends to spend most of it's time. It has excursions, certainly, but it keeps coming back into the trend range. And as I've pointed out, it has a trend rise of xx% (7%? I can't recall ATM) over a half-year(?) time-frame. But it's the *range* general movement, *not* the daily, weekly, monthly stock PPS moves that behaves this way. The PPS does tend to stay in the range, mostly.

     

    That's why I have advocated short calls. It's 0-risk in terms of losses. The *only* risk is less than maximum profit. It is a supremely suitable strategy for a stock trading like this one does since the premiums are way too high, if you believe in the Black-Scholes or binomial pricing models. This overpricing is strictly a result of the options market makers taking advantage of the retail investor. I do not intend to let them take *all* the money from those that don't do their DD.

     

    There has been a change over three years in the PPS behavior. By my best "eyeballing" estimate, we went from running about 130% statistical volatility in early November 2008 (had been as high as 191% in Oct. '08), to high 180% to low 200% in early 2009 and has trailed off to around 40% statistical volatility prior to this latest pop. But options pricing is not reflecting this reduced statistical volatility.

     

    Premiums are quite large in relation to what statiistical volatility is showing. That statistical volatility also means that in the short-term, risk of getting executed out of the stock is low if you pick the right strike price. That means missing "maximum profit" also has lowered risk.

     

    So NVAX went from being "The Hot Stock" to one no longer in favor while options are pricing as still a "Hot Stock".

     

    The *stock* is broken for now (in relation to long-term potential) but the company is *not*. Especially with the HHS award.

     

    The technology is the same and the potential for it is the same as when we first identified it as a candidate for our attention. The market has changed and, for an ADD market, the company has been a constant disappointment.

     

    But *I* am not part of an ADD market. *I* am part of an group of investors and traders. For some things I want immediate returns, for others I'm playing long-term.

     

    NVAX is a long-term play for me.

     

    Given that, I will and do (although it has been infrequent) trade it and rake some premiums via the short calls route. I risk the *maximum* profit in return for reducing my opportunity cost. But I want to be in it when the first product comes out.

     

    I want to be in it when the buyout offer comes.

     

    ISTM that blending such concerns is only appropriate for a stock like NVAX. If you play it *only* for the short-term gain, I think it *must* disappoint *unless* the trends, "cyclicality", market makers action, ... have sufficient consistency and accuracy to allow you to proceed with high confidence. To put it mildly, "Your Attention Is Required".

     

    If you are only for the long-term, then I think you should be working strategies that reduce opportunity cost. No one likes "dead money", me included.

     

    I don't track my hits and misses. But for the longer term, I've been satisfied with my progress, to the point of keeping an eye out for both add points that seem attractive and trades. I've not done a lot of trades, as I'm always trying to get it "on the cheap".

     

    But I did recently short some more calls.

     

    Short-term traders that have lost or made some $ can probably more accurately tell if the things we've identified ("cyclicality", options expiration weeks, market maker actions, ... ) are holding water or not.

     

    Sorry for the long-winded nature, but I hate to see folks disappointed and I was feeling that some were so because they were not, IMO, seeing this stock for what it is and were not giving sufficient credence to what the charts and our investigations have shown us.

     

    Comments welcomed.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Mar 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ok... (NVAX) is still on a downtrend trajectory... My buy in target is between 2.25 and 2.3.... I think the play now is an acquisition. They better NOT do a dilution after getting all that money. If they do, I will drop the stock. As it is, I am not going in major... just a thousand shares to start....

     

    I still can't post instas... so this is where we are...
    8 Mar 2011, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): I think you should be able to get it there after next week, at the latest. Next week is options expiration week and we typically get volatility that week. So price might move up or down - I don't know market maker's positions so I have no strong guess.

     

    OI on the calls is only a total of 1,826 right now, so I don't see enough volume thereto cause the market makers to have to pull any shenanigans.

     

    If it behaves normally, the following ~week should give you the price range, but I would look at the charts before making a move and try to catch it near wherever the low looks like it might be. It could trade relatively flat for a while until April options expiration, although that would be a divergence from longer-term behavior.

     

    Do be aware that my original longer-term trend support is currently $2.30 and slowly rising. BUT, that may not hold as a new lower support *may* have been established with the lower lows we saw 1/27-2/7. It's currently ~$2.15 and has a lower angle of incidence than the old line.

     

    I would look after options expiration week to see if the old or new lower trend line seems to be in play.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    8 Mar 2011, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    I sold off another block two days ago. I agree with you, and HTL, that we're heading back into the pre-BARDA trading range.

     

    User: Suggestion. Try opening up Safari, and then go to SA and see if an Insta will work that way. I know this is quirky, but on my Vista laptop, I cannot open QuoteMedia using Internet Explorer. Can do so using Safari.
    8 Mar 2011, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Maya

     

    I have tried it on Firefox, Safari, and Chrome... I also tried it on two different platforms... a Powder Mac running OSX10 and an Intel Power Book running the lastest version of OSX... nothing works...

     

    I hope tech support gets back soon... because until they do, I can't properly support my Instas... I wonder if this is a bug or if someone did something to prevent me from posting instas? I just don't know anymore...
    8 Mar 2011, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    Have you tried clearing all the cache and exiting and re-entring the browser? Do a log off before clearing the cache and then logging back in afterwards might do it.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Mar 2011, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    User, you MIGHT have a sour cookie that you need to shed. This can happen on Apples, particularly when there has been a lot of work done recently on a site. Could be you picked up a bad one or they just haven't gotten around to looking into the problem because its Apple, and some folks really, really hate Apple.

     

    User, just for giggles, sign out next time, then sign up under a new name and try to create an insta. If its something linked to your specific handle, that would reveal that, and then you'd have somthing new to yell at the tech supporters about.

     

    You may also have one of the very rare trojans written for the Mac OS. This would really surprise me, but its possible.
    8 Mar 2011, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yup... I cleaned the caches, and I deleted all my cookies... logged out, shut down, booted up, launched the browsers... nothing... I like that idea of singing up under a new name... I will try that.

     

    Thanks
    8 Mar 2011, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Do you want me to try to flip in a new Insta? I can copy and paste all the above info, I believe....

     

    Or, we could wait a few days more.
    8 Mar 2011, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Maya... I just sent Tech Support an email to see if they have even started looking at the problem... lts wait a few days... the SF concentrator is mostly a backwater now, so a few days will not make much of a difference... if it goes beyond that, I will gladly take up your offer. Thanks Again
    8 Mar 2011, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • user314159
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Excellent suggestion Trip... I created a new account and sure enough I can post instablogs... so the problem is linked to my handle.

     

    This is starting to sound like SA is blocking me. I will send the info on to tech support and see if they respond.
    8 Mar 2011, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Blocking you? Crap. I was hoping I was wrong. I thought we were past the "enemies list" BS....

     

    If we need to exert pressure on your behalf, I RARELY bother the ptb's running SA, but I can be a real annoyance if need be...
    8 Mar 2011, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    More fricking censorship. User did you piss off the big man...Obama.

     

    Lets see how long this stays.
    8 Mar 2011, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Oooo, DG, you said the "O" word.

     

    Trolls galore now. I know, in the movie when anyone said "Voldemort" the Death Eaters would track you down, but the way it really works is if you say the big "O" in anything less than a worshipful fashion, the myrmidons arise.
    8 Mar 2011, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its possible I ticked off someone when I challenged SA to do something to immediately stop the troll attack. I would like to think SA is above that kind of nonsense.

     

    I would like to think I am not being intentionally blocked by SA... I wonder if my database record on SA has somehow become corrupted. HT would know if something like that was possible.
    8 Mar 2011, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    Possible, unlikely. If tech support doesn't fix it soon, holler at us and also contributor relations or David White.

     

    They have backups, so recovery from corruption, if it occurred, could be easily done.

     

    Most likely it's some flag stuck - intentional or as an effect of recent changes to the site.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2011, 06:15 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Maybe during the upgrade User tried to load a new QC and that got him stuck in la la land.
    9 Mar 2011, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Quite a bit of NVAX calls being bought today, along with relatively heavy volume in the common shares early this morning. 199 March calls bought (99 at $3 strike, 100 at $2's), and 241 $3 April calls. Maybe some news is coming (or possibly just short covering)...not much time for those March calls to work out.
    9 Mar 2011, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    Vol could be new positions or folks taking profit - exiting. The open interest (OI) at EOD compared to prior day is the only sure way to tell.

     

    The March OI (aggregate all strikes) hasn't change much from yesterday, so I suspect it's folks trading them. I used to trade these things 3/4 times a day on AEM. Made good money doing it too.

     

    April also has volume, but is still below what it was last week (down about 1K OI contracts).

     

    July is where the strength is - over the last two weeks added about 2500 contracts.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2011, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    Buyins.net expects NVAX to retreat after earnings today:

     

    www.buyins.net/release...
    14 Mar 2011, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    I expected it to retreat after this week anyway - options expiration week ya' know?

     

    But with the CC likely to emphasize the bene's of the HHS award, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pop and the drop come next week as is more normal.

     

    All speculation of course.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Mar 2011, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Wedbush Starts Novavax (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) at Outperform; Continued Value From Ongoing Partnerships

     

    March 14, 2011 5:04 PM EDT

     

    Wedbush initiates coverage on Novavax (NASDAQ: seekingalpha.com/symbo...) with a Outperform. PT $6.

     

    Wedbush analyst says, "NVAX represents an international growth story positioned to take advantage of the largely untapped, rapidly growing emerging market opportunity for seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccines and production capacity. The company has several joint ventures outside the US, including an Indian market joint venture with Cadila Pharmaceuticals (India) and the recently announced partnership with LG Life Sciences in the South Korean market."

     

    "The next major events for the stock include initiation of a Phase III clinical trial for a NVAX’s VLP seasonal flu vaccine, H1N1 seasonal vaccine marketing approval in Mexico and the possible announcement of a US or EU partnership or licensing agreement."

     

    For more ratings news on Novavax click here and for the rating history of Novavax click here.

     

    Shares of Novavax closed at $2.48 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $1.94-$3.50.

     

    www.streetinsider.com/...
    15 Mar 2011, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Do you have a buy target Mitshu?
    15 Mar 2011, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    No, I don't. I'm done with this stock, other than waiting/hoping for a buyout so I can cash in my call options. I don't think there is much downside in NVAX here, so I'd be buying on any dip if I were looking to do so (today might be a very good buying opportunity if the market tanks as it looks like it might do).
    15 Mar 2011, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    Trading pre-market @ $2.50-$2.60, last $2.55.

     

    I stick to my thoughts of entry *after* options expiration sometime. Upgrade will have an effect mostly longer term?

     

    HardToLove
    15 Mar 2011, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    One other comment: It's interesting that Driscoll did the Roth presentation yesterday. Rahul must have had another "scheduling conflict" of some sort (just like before the barda & LG announcements). Additionally, I think nvax is late in announcing when they are going to be releasing earnings. I suspect something is going on here...at a minimum, another partnership may be right around the corner, possibly something more.
    ------
    ROCKVILLE, Md., March 11, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq:NVAX - News), a clinical-stage vaccine company, announced today that Frederick Driscoll, Chief Financial Officer of Novavax, will be presenting at the ROTH 23rd Annual OC Growth Stock Conference on March 14th, 2011 at 3:00 pm local time at The Ritz Carlton, Laguna Niguel, CA.
    15 Mar 2011, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    Interesting thought.

     

    Maybe I should go ahead and close my shorts now. They're all in profit territory.

     

    Market makers are still over-pricing them though.

     

    I'll wait I guess. They should expire worthless next month and I get to keep all the premium and save the fees too.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Mar 2011, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    This explains why NVAX hasn't provided an earnings release date:

     

    sec.gov/Archives/edgar...

     

    Novavax, Inc. (the “Company”) was unable, without unreasonable effort or expense, to file its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2010 (the “2010 Form 10-K”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) by March 16, 2011. This delay is attributable to the Company’s plan to include, in the 2010 Form 10-K, restated financial statements for earlier periods in order to reflect the reclassification of certain warrants as derivative liabilities. In earlier periods, such warrants had been classified as equity.
    17 Mar 2011, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    By the way, NVAX management has granted themselves another healthly set of options this year, all at $2.50 strike price. Rahul got 250K options. Looks like Erck didn't get any though. His 1-year contract was up last month and there has been no filing indicating it was extended or renewed either, not sure what's going on there.

     

    www.nasdaq.com/asp/quo...
    17 Mar 2011, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): NOVAVAX to Present at BIT Life Science's 3rd World Congress of Vaccine

     

    "...March 23rd, 2011 at the China National Convention Center in Beijing, China. Dr. Singhvi will be giving a presentation on Commercialization Strategies for Vaccines in Emerging Markets. In addition, John Trizzino, Senior VP - Business Development, will also give a presentation at the conference titled, The Value of Government Alliances for Effective Pandemic Preparedness"

     

    Not much more in the PR.

     

    www.prnewswire.com/new...

     

    HardToLove
    22 Mar 2011, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I can now post Instablogs again... Please go to the
    Current Swine Flu News Concentrator

     

    tinyurl.com/4mfgz6
    22 Mar 2011, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hmmmm that link does not seem to work... try this

     

    tinyurl.com/4mfgz6r
    22 Mar 2011, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That's too strange... it looks like the same link but the latter one works and the first one does not SIGH!
    22 Mar 2011, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10540) | Send Message
     
    User: This is what I get when I try to open the new link!

     

    techwatching.com/out.p...
    22 Mar 2011, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18451) | Send Message
     
    WFM! Oh, you meant the first one, I see by the time stamps.

     

    I get this seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    HardToLove
    22 Mar 2011, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6206) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Right... a techwatching alert... I have no idea what that is... the two tiny URL links look identical, but the first link posted brings up some strange TechWatching message.... Given the two links look the same, it must be some kind of F* up on tiny URL... I am begining to wonder if the SF concentrator is haunted.
    22 Mar 2011, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8679) | Send Message
     
    Maybe some tech is watching you User. You are being observed for possible crimes against the committee. Your on the list by God.
    22 Mar 2011, 07:10 PM Reply Like
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