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Swine Flu News Concentrator March 22, 2011 to May 12, 2011 135 comments
Explanation:
I will post Swine-Flu and related articles under this heading. The top of the instablog will contain my current months key links preceded with a one or two liner that explains the link. A more complete summary of the link will be in the comments area. At the bottom of the Instablog we have definition of terms, a summary of Swine Flu / vaccine investment plays, the 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map, Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu, and Memory Alpha which contains links to previous news concentrators and authors articles on the subject.
_____________________
Update History:
Added definition of Reassortment
Added definiton of R0 (R Naught)
Added Overview of H1N1 / Categories of Vaccine Investment Plays Added Memory Alpha
Added Link to Google's Swine Flu Infection Map
Added Red Cross Tips for Dealing With The Flu
Added definition of EUA and PREP act
Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into two parts for October
Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into three parts for October
Added Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 1
Bolded References to Older Swine Flu Concentrators in Memory Alpha
Expanded the list of stocks discussed in the tags
Alphabetized stocks in the tags
Updated the play by stock list
Added a table that contains the web site addresses for the companies discussed
Moved links over one month old to the new Memory Alpha Reference Library
Added definitions of Clinical Trials and Protocol.
Corrected Roche stock symbol in the web site table
_____________________
Last Swine Flu News Concentrator Links:
Swine Flu News Concentrator February 20, 2011 to March 22, 2011
tinyurl.com/4unv2hy
Swine Flu News Concentrator January 28, 2011 to February 20, 2011
tinyurl.com/4u9nlrz
Swine Flu News Concentrator January 11, 2011 to January 28, 2011
tinyurl.com/4maxxdv
Swine Flu News Concentrator December 18 (2010) to January 11, 2011
tinyurl.com/4gs9xzl
Swine Flu News Concentrator November 11 (2010) to December 18, 2010
tinyurl.com/22pykd8
Swine Flu News Concentrator September 23 to November 11 (2010)
tinyurl.com/29eflnpJ
Swine Flu News Concentrator June 14 to September 23 (2010)
http://tinyurl.com/294bzc6
Swine Flu News Concentrator April 8 to June 14
tinyurl.com/25lqvfx
Swine Flu News Concentrator (March 13 - April 8)
tinyurl.com/y8w7mgy
Swine Flu News Concentrator (February 12 - March 13)
tinyurl.com/ykba7dl
Swine Flu News Concentrator January 25 to February 12
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yjccho4
___________________
Some Definitions:
What is Reassortment
When two different virus strains infect the same host, they often exchange genes, a process known as reassortment.
A significant number of experts are concerned that as H5N1 (Avian Flu) spreads more widely and infects more people, it will come across more hosts who are also carrying human flu viruses. This increases the likelihood of a new strain emerging that has the severity of the bird flu virus and the infection rate of the swine flu virus, leading to a new global pandemic with much deadlier consequences than the one we are experiencing at the moment.
What is R naught (R 0)
How many people the average infected person infects is called the basic reproductive number, or R0 (pronounced "R naught").
Measles, which is probably mankind's most contagious infection, has an R0 of about 18. Polio's number is about 6; severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) about 5. For seasonal flu strains, the R0 is about 1.2, and for pandemic strains it is rarely higher than 2. For the novel H1N1 strain, it's about 1.6. What this low R0 means is that flu outbreaks are always teetering on the verge of having their myriad chains of transmission broken by people who get infected but don't pass the virus to anyone else.
Swine Flu - Novel H1N1 flu, popularly known as swine flu, is a respiratory infection caused by an influenza virus first recognized in spring 2009. The new virus, which is officially called swine influenza A (H1N1), contains genetic material from human, swine and avian flu viruses. (By Mayo Clinic staff)
Pandemic - The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people.
A World Health Organization phase 6 pandemic indicates that influenza due to the novel H1N1 swine flu is occurring in multiple countries around the world and that human infection is widespread. The classification does not reflect the severity of individual infections.
Cytokine Storm -
When our body detects foreign micro-organisms indicating an infection, our body might respond by over-protecting the site of infection. The body may race so many antibodies to the infection site that they collect in what is known as a cytokine storm.
A cytokine storm, or "Hypercytokinemia" is a potentially fatal immune reaction consisting of a positive feedback loop between cytokines and immune cells.
www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-st...
A positive feedback loop means that as something increases, that increase stimulates further growth.
What makes younger people more susceptible to H1N1 is that their “vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs.
This vulnerability in the young is reminiscent of the Spanish flu of 1918. That strain of flu also struck mostly healthy young adults.
Pulmonary Embolism - Occurs when a blood clot forms in an arm or leg breaks free and enters the lungs where it is too large to pass through the small vessels of the lungs and forms a blockage. This stops blood from flowing into an area of the lung, and the part of the lung dies because it does not receive oxygen.
medicalnewstoday.com/articles/153796.php
What is an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?
An EUA may be issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow either the use of an unapproved medical product or an unapproved use of an approved medical product during certain types of emergencies with specified agents.
What is the PREP Act?
The PREP Act authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (“Secretary”) to issue a declaration (“PREP Act declaration”) that provides immunity from tort liability (except for willfull misconduct) for claims of loss caused, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats and conditions determined by the Secretary to constitute a present, or credible risk of a future public health emergency to entities and individuals involved in the development, manufacture, testing, distribution, administration, and use of such countermeasures.
The PREP Act also authorizes an emergency fund in the United States Treasury to provide compensation for injuries directly caused by administration or use of a countermeasure covered by the Secretary’s declaration. While no funds have been appropriated for this purpose, if funds are appropriated, compensation may then be available for medical benefits, lost wages and death benefits to individuals for specified injuries.
cdc.gov/h1n1flu/eua/qa.htm
What are Clinical Trials:
Clinical trials, also known as clinical studies, are research studies in which scientists and doctors test new drugs and treatments to see if they will improve health. Many of today's treatments for cancer are based on the results of past clinical trials. Because of progress made through clinical trials, many people treated for cancer are now living longer.
Clinical trials are divided into four phases.
Phase 1 trials: These trials are the first time a new drug or treatment is given to humans. They are normally carried out in a small number of volunteers (typically 6-20 people) who may include healthy volunteers or patients with the disease for which the product is intended as a treatment in order to find out how safe the treatment is. They also look at how a new drug should be given (by mouth, injected into muscle or the bloodstream, etc.), how often and at what dose. Phase 1 trials can also involve patients for whom standard therapies have failed and for whom no other therapies are available.
Phase 2 trials: These trials involve larger numbers of people (typically 12 - 50). Phase 2 trials continue to look at safety of the therapy but also test how well the new drug or treatment works in patients with different disease types.
Phase 3 trials: These are large studies (100+ people) that look at how well a new drug or treatment works in comparison to current therapies to see which treatment is better. Those taking part are usually divided into two treatment groups: standard treatment versus new treatment.
Phase 4 trials: These trials are usually carried out after the drug or treatment has been approved by the FDA and is readily available for use in the general patient population. The purpose of Phase 4 trials is to continue to study the effects of the drug or treatment on different populations and to look for side effects associated with long-term use.
Back to Top
What is a Protocol:
Clinical trials use written guidelines called protocols. The protocol explains what the trial hopes to accomplish, how the trial will be carried out, and why each part of the trial is necessary. For example, the protocol includes:
* The reason for doing the trial
* How many people will be in the trial
* Who is eligible to take part in the trial
* What study drugs participants will need to take
* What medical tests participants will have and how often
* What information will be gathered
Every doctor or research center that takes part in the trial uses the same protocol. This makes sure that patients are treated identically no matter where they are receiving treatment, and that information from all the centers taking part can be combined and compared.
Why Slow Production for Traditionally Produced (chicken eggs) Swine Flu Vaccine:
One dose of swine flu vaccine for every two eggs, compared with two doses of
seasonal flu vaccine per egg
Sorry if the link does not work... it appears the Boston Globe newspaper appears to be playing games with link addresses... Just copy the link, and Google it.
http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/10/22/quest_for_swine_flu_vaccine_giving_some_firms_a_boost/
_____________________
Brief Overview of Categories of H1N1/ Vaccine Investment Plays:
I - Vaccines / Prevention
1) Production Method / Capacity plays (NVAX) (VICL) (NVS) (INO)
2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play (SVA - China) (NVAX - India)
3) Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) (BAX) (BDX)
4) Outsourced production plays
5) Bio -Defence (MDCGF - France)
6) Anti-Mutation / Pan-Influenza Play (CVM) (NNVC) (INO)
7) Universal Flu Vaccine Play (INO)
II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
1) Dealing with severe lung infections (Fludase® (DAS181)) (CBM) (AEMD)
2) ICU treatments (BCRX) (GSK) (ROG)
III - Population Avoidance:
1) masks/ disinfectants… Surgical masks are good enough (APT) (MMM) (CLX) (ECL) (PURE)
IV - Testing do you have it? (GPRO)
1) Test kits - (DGX)
V - Merger / Acquisitions / Licensing (VICL) (NVAX)
_____________________
Sorry this is still a graphic instead of a table. I played with the table tool, but its a
PITA to work with.
Swine Flu Companies Discussed and Their Web Sites
_____________________
Swine Flu Hits Stuffed Animal World:
2011 H1N1 US Flu Outbreak Map:
Here is a link that gives information by US states. The Link is from DoubleGuns
tinyurl.com/6khyjq
___________________
Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu:
IF YOU ARE ILL -
* Stay in a room separate from common areas of the home and avoid contact with others as much as possible.
* Stay at home for at least 24 hours after their fever is gone without using medicine to reduce the fever.
* Get lots of rest and drink plenty of fluids.
* Consider wearing a facemask, if available and tolerable, when sharing common spaces with household members. (ed - surgical masks ok).
* Check with your healthcare provider about whether to take antiviral medication, or if fever persists, whether antibiotics are needed.
WHEN CARING FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS THE FLU -
*Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces that everyone touches.
* Use detergent and very hot water to do dishes and wash clothes. It's okay to wash everyone's dishes and clothes together. Wash your hands after handling dirty laundry.
* Designate only one adult as the caregiver. People at increased risk of severe illness from the flu should not be caregivers.
* Although not mentioned by the Red Cross, the caregiver should probably ware a surgical mask as well when entering the sick room.
* Deal with crisis situations calmly and confidently to give the best support to the person being cared for.
_____________________
MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season
Click here to link to the Mayo tool:
www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...
_____________________
Suggeted Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown
www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php
After comparing more than two dozen possible scenarios for closing a school, the analysis suggested three optimal scenarios:
1. A single-day influenza-related absentee rate of 5 percent
2. Absenteeism of 4 percent or more on two consecutive days
3. Absenteeism of 3 percent or more on three consecutive days
Disclosure: NVAX, NNVC, SVA, VICL (sometimes trading, sometimes holding)
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This post has 135 comments:
(NVAX): NOVAVAX to Present at BIT Life Science's 3rd World Congress of Vaccine
"...March 23rd, 2011 at the China National Convention Center in Beijing, China. Dr. Singhvi will be giving a presentation on Commercialization Strategies for Vaccines in Emerging Markets. In addition, John Trizzino, Senior VP - Business Development, will also give a presentation at the conference titled, The Value of Government Alliances for Effective Pandemic Preparedness"
Not much more in the PR.
prnewswire.com/new...
HardToLove
HardToLove
Conference call 10:00 local.
The usual dial-in and webcast facilities will be available.
www.prnewswire.com/new...
HardToLove
Stochastic crossed below its average from neutral reading ~50.
All told, we should see a bearish move start a down trend today.
Possible support at the 50 day SMA, which is flat to slightly rising, of $2.41 yesterday. But the 50 day has not shown itself to be a strong support point in the last few months.
Nearest support seems to be $2.44 and then $2.41. I can't determine how much weight to give them with the recent spike gumming up the works.
Nearest potential support below those I've mentioned already seems to rest with the rising 200 day SMA, currently ~$2.32 and the old long-term trend support, ~$2.34 with a slight rise of ~1 penny/10 days.
But the viability of that line is in doubt with action over the last couple of months. It was seriously violated 1/28-2/23, almost a month.
A new lower support for the trend, which also has more supporting touch points now, is at $2.19 with a rise of ~1.5 cents/10 days.
If price does start a downtrend today and does penetrate the 200 day SMA, I would look for support at one of these two lines rather than some older support/resistance points seen from months past.
MHO,
HardToLove
Loss of $0.06/share beats by $0.03, but rev down 37.5%, COH & equic down to $31.7M vs prior $43M EOY '09.
warning about comparison to restated financials for prior years,.
... fourth quarter of 2010, Novavax reported a net loss of $6.3 million, or $0.06 per share, compared to a net loss of $10.3 million, or $0.11 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2009
2010 ... net loss of $35.7 million, or $0.34 per share, compared to a net loss of $40.3 million, or $0.47 per share, for 2009
www.prnewswire.com/new...
Conference 10:00 EDT webcast not on their site yet!
HardToLove
OK, I know its common, but this sort of prejudice against the race of rodents has to stop. Just because "they all do it" is no excuse.
What's next? Turtles riding at the back of the bus? Denial of service due to the color of my shell?
If I weren't a cold blooded species this would really make me hot.
Seeing deaths in Mexico from swine flu and cases in texas.
www.foxnews.com/world/.../
Backward, or in a direction where the resulting disease is less severe.
Forward, making for a stronger organism and a more dangerous disease.
Dead. Some mutations create conditions where the organization cannot survive. This is actually one of the more common outcomes.
If the author is right, there may now be some upside coming. But I wouldn't want to guess at the time-frame.
Be sure and read the comments too.
seekingalpha.com/artic...
HardToLove
When I originally reviewed both companies, I preferred (NVAX) and it's still my favorite, but (VICL) is starting to look more attractive to me now too.
I've made enough off the call options to start about a 1/4 size position in (VICL), so it would be effectively zero-cost. I could afford to wait it out without much concern for opportunity cost.
They've got options available too, albeit low volume, so I could make a little premium money while I wait.
HardToLove
I would be very cautious about holding VICL above 3.5... and right now its knocking at the door of 3.
But it's a tad late in the season, isn't it, to have a big effect on the biopharma's in the space? And last year the southern hemisphere seemed to have little effect on them at all.
HardToLove
Otherwise, its "wait till next year".
"... named by the editors of R&D Directions magazine as one of the top "100 great investigational drugs in development" today. In its tenth annual list of promising clinical compounds, R&D Directions cited Novavax's virus-like-particle technology as a promising new approach to producing vaccines to prevent seasonal, H1N1 and avian influenza. The list reflects the current interests of industry observers and analysts and is described in the magazine's March 2011 issue".
Not much more in the PR.
www.prnewswire.com/new...
HardToLove
Nothing will break the 2.65$ wall?
Arghhh...!!!
sanevax.org/
I hope the information and services there get widely disseminated.
I need to look deeper to see if they cover other vaccines too - I'm especially concerned about the number that our children are now forced to accept and wonder if there's any correlation with the increase in many afflictions, like ADD, etc.
HardToLove
So far today, 968,332 - a *very* large number. Maybe some shorts hopping in there too.
Don't let the action scare you off - normal stuff during options expiration week.
I might buy some to trade soon.
Have to think about it though - I'm really full up and just looking to sell some calls again.
HardToLove
In case you missed some of the back comments, posts and my insta, there seems to be a "cyclic" nature when there's no catalysts. Runs around 22 trading days, give or take.
All those reasons is why I've been safely selling covered calls, third bunch (I think) ends tomorrow.
After Monday, I'll look for another high out in the next couple of weeks and do it again.
HardToLove
Catalysts? how many more.... BARDA - Mexico Trial - LG Deal -
Funds are for 2 -5 years long, last entries are in 2.6$ levels.
However, we could be surprised by the rabies effort in India I guess. The RSV has done well on animals but is just getting seriously started on the h00m0n side.
Another announced partnership is always possible.
Folks that are in (NVAX) have been waiting so long for something to give them a return that there is no enthusiasm right now.
It's all waiting. I have it easier as I never expected a quick pop.
I saw the technology and made my commitment then, but many folks don't play that way.
At the near top of the coming cycle, consider selling some $3 strikes a couple months out for ~25-30 cents and get a return of ~10%. Annualized, it's a nice return.
A few months back, when pps was higher, I garnered 12% premium and if exercised would receive a net of ~42%.
When you want to hold, might as well get paid to do so - opportunity cost is reduced (or another way, cost basis is reduced).
Just make sure you consider how you''d feel if stock went to $5 and you had to sell for $3 plus the received premium.
Without patience, folks shouldn't be in most speculative biopharmas, IMO.
HardToLove
I see it all the time in low-cost high-volatility stocks.
Take a look at $SPX volumes over the last few years and note the drop. Most of the money sloshing around now is from the Fed, administered by the banksters and their computers and sophisticated institutional investors and hedge funds - all with computers making rule-based (a.k.a "quant") decisions to drive their trades.
That's what caused the "flash crash" last year.
Folks like us must assume an adversarial relationship with the market, whose sole function now is to strip us of our remaining wealth.
MHO,
HardToLove
Many thanks for the info!
Then when some goals are satisfied, the imbalance disappears as orders are withdrawn and "sanity" reigns for a little while.
This usually happens in a sequence of a long period of low-volume trades being forced to the wrong side and then a large volume spike and trading instantly steps to some other range.
My *guess* is the market maker is distributing or accumulating to satisfy favored (big money) customers and when enough is done, you see the moves.
This occurs several times throughout the day on a stock like (CPST) and probably a lot I don't watch.
One of the things I watch for is the opening block trade size. That gives me a clue as to whether the MM is going to be "heavy handed" that day.
HardToLove
But, I am going for long run.
151K shares for 2.44$
But I just pulled that up - it could have been withdrawn before I took a peek.
HardToLove
Now I have to decide to add more or just hold. <*sigh*>
A nice problem to have though! :-))
Thank you for the link Robert!
HardToLove
======================...
Stanley Erck now Pres & CEO, James Young CoB
...
Mr. Evans concluded, "We would like to especially thank Dr. Rahul Singhvi for his past leadership during important and challenging phases of Novavax's growth and development. Rahul has served Novavax as its President & CEO for the past 6 years, and during that time he has been instrumental in positioning the Company for success with our VLP vaccine candidates. We all wish him nothing but the best in his future endeavors and will be anxiously watching for his next achievements."
======================...
www.prnewswire.com/new...
HardToLove
No dramatic change, in that case. Status quo.
This is not to say that they have not done any work with licensing and partnerships, just off hand it doesn't appear that the new thrust will be markedly different from the old/current direction.
So they seem to think that both forging of new relationships will proceed more rapidly and that selling the company for a huge premium will come about faster.
HardToLove
Two favorable articles on SA in close proximity is a signal... Those two articles in close proximity to a major change in NVAX management is another signal. I think some of the big money in Nvax pulled the plug on Rahul... I suspect that big money is now beating the drum...
Whatever the motivation, the publicity can't hurt the pps. I suggest being careful... Something is going on... Could be a deal in the works.... I am in accumulating mode now.
www.linkedin.com/pub/s...
Erck's well-rounded. He knows the industry, the science, how to get products thru various phase studies into approval, how to market, how to get partners, etc.
Erck's a Renaissance Man.
Obviously, he's brining just what the doctor ordered, imo.
~~~~~Start spreading the news~~~~~that Erck ain't no quirk~~~~~
Sorry could not resist. Guess I am a quirk.
with a resume.
273.848 shorted shares 04-18-2011
740.047 shorted shares 04-19-2011
373.699 shorted shares 04-20-2011
187.920 shorted shares 04-21-2011
----------------------...
1.575.514 shorted shares in 4 days ?
SA article & Fake big BIDs = It's a trap!!!
comments, please.
Did they say how they got those numbers?
The reason I ask is because of the following.
A few months back I wrote some software that scarfed all the short sales each day for CPST. I back tested the numbers shown and they never ever matched up with the bi-weekly reports.
The reason turned out to be that the numbers provided to us do not include covering transactions. They only include the short side.
Now consider: market makers are exempt from naked shorting rules (with some limitations). This includes not only the maker for the stock but also the makers for the options.
Let's take the options side. When some buys a put, the right to sell at a specified strike price, the writer of the option may be a market maker. If so, the maker (usually) immediately short the shares in sufficient to cover the contracts (number of contracts x 100). When the contract(s) are executed, that's the cover. If the contract expires worthless, the maker just covers, if he hasn't already done so, in the market.
A similar situation exists if the maker is long calls as the counter-party to a, e.g., retail investor writing covered calls.
Anyway, the wrap-up is that you can't really glean any actiionable information from those daily reports *unless* you can see more information than is currently provided, like covering transactions (there is no way that I've found yet).
The publicity that came out about this new daily availability was just so much smoke *unless* you also have access to the covering information or an EOD summary of positions.
One possible clue, albeit incomplete, is to watch the options transactions and OI changes. Big changes there might give a clue to how much of the short interest is just market maker activity and may not indicate a bearish outlook at.
The simple commonly accepted gauge of this is the put/call ratio. However, that has been also manipulated in the past on (NVAX) with large numbers of call OI reported with no transactions. At the end of December they just disappeared, again with no transactions. And these were not December options, but out month options. This manipulation occurred beginning in, IIRC, July or August of last year.
Since shortsqueeze.com apparently does have this, there must be a source (maybe equivalent to the COT report).
So that why I asked about the source of that Yahoo number.
Thanks for any additional information,
HardToLove
P.S. Market makers can cover early if they see the market moving in their favor with a high degree of confidence. In that cse you often get option expiration weeks with less volatility than normal because makers covered earlier and garnerd higher profits than they might otherwise.
regsho.finra.org/FNSQs...
Meanwhile, what to do? I am going to put a stop on at 2.48. I have a lot of other investment opportunities. If I stop out, I might add more CBLI.
Thanks for the info Merck-VLP!
NVAX: Novavax Inc
NVAX: Novavax Inc Country: United States Industry: Medical-Biomedical And Gene Last Updated: 2011-04-22 08:44 AM
NVAX Institutional Activity Summary
Stock Trading Score: 3.25 Owners: 142 No Change: 35 (24.64 %)
Buying: 67 (47.18 %) Brand New: 20 (14.08 %) Added More: 47 (33.09 %)
Selling: 40 (28.16 %) Sold Some: 29 (20.42 %) Sold All: 11 (7.74 %)
Previous Shares Held By Institutions 39,467,786 Net Shares Changed (Pct): 29,060,421 (73.63%)
Current Shares Held By Institutions 68,528,207 Absolute Shares Traded (in play) By Institutions (Pct)
Current OI for calls all strikes all months is 4724, with a large majority in the July and October months (eyeball estimate ~80%) and maybe 90% in the usual $3/$4 strikes.
The put OI is only 1244, most in the $3 (~50%) and the majority of the rest @ $2.
Put/call ratio is 26.3%, a very bullish ratio.
We recently had a very bullish article on NVAX from SA and there's been a *lot* of call transactions the last week or so, maybe 700 contracts. That would represent ~70K shares that could be bought or shorted just by options market makers. Since pps has been generally on the rise, I think lots of folks are buying calls again and the makers are shorting contracts, meaning they buy shares to cover.
There will be some, of course, where the maker buys calls from a covered call writer (retail investor) and the maker would short those. But retail investors writing covered calls seems to be the exception as folks are too afraid of missing upside. And since they are bullish (that's why they own the stock) they are more likely to buy calls rather than effectively short the ones they have by writing covered calls.
Given this scenario, I would guess that our cyclicality is still in play and we continue to dawdle until near options expiration week. Depending on what happens with options between now and then, we can expect a price drop just before or during options expiration week if a lot more calls are bought and price stays below $3. The makers will be unloading their shares if that is the case.
If there's a lot more calls purchased between now and then, we should see price rise into options expiration week and the price drop occur during options expiration week, again as makers unload shares not needed if price stays below $3.
So, I'd be careful about setting the stops too tight. Options expiration week for May ends Saturday the 21st (Friday is the last trading day).
Right now we seem to be in a sideways consolidation phase. If our old rising trend is in force, our low should not penetrate ~$2.40 by much, if at all. And the recent low in options expiration week was the expiration of a *huge* number of April $3 and $4 strikes that folks started buying late last year. The market makers could release the shares they had bought to cover their short call options they had sold and that is why the price dropped as low as it did.
I don't think you need worry about another options expiration week like that until July, based on where the OI volumes are at. But we do need to watch the action.
And the recent rise in pps may well be the options makers shorting the calls and so buying shares to cover, which is what they *should* be doing.
My latest batch of short April calls expired and I'm waiting for the expected move up to around $2.7x or so to short another round.
I'll admit I'm having second thoughts about that though. With the new management team we may get some JVs announced or somesuch and I might miss a bunch of upside if I short the calls again. If I do, it would be the 4th round - how long can I keep guessing right?
Anyway, those are my thoughts. I hope that they are both useful and correct.
BTW, just FYI, my cost basis is now well under $2 from shorting those options over the last year or so, so I don't have as much concern for the downside as you might have right now. So consider my thoughts in that light.
HardToLove
I failed to consider that in my reply to you.
HardToLove
"Unlimited targets and future potential. Sangamo’s ZFP is a platform technology, enabling the creation of multiple products with the ability to address multiple diseases by modifying the underlying ZFP platforms foundation. There are over 12,000 disease categories listed on the World Health Organization website. There are between 1,500 and 6,000 diseases with a genetic basis for their cause. There are approximately 30,000 genes contained within each cell in a human being. To my knowledge no companies “platform” has ever been as broad or with as much potential to effectively treat so many disease indications as Sangamos’, simply because Sangamo has the ability to address or even prevent each and every disease affecting all plants, animals, insects and humans, in a way that was completely unknown just a few years ago."
Link to full article:
seekingalpha.com/artic...
Looks like two winners there!
HardToLove
Homefront again will be quite busy this week as wall paper is being pulled off, water damage fixed and the whole downstairs is going to be repainted.
Thanks for the hints on SGMO and ISIS.
seekingalpha.com/artic...
www.prnewswire.com/new...
hardToLove
Stealth mode on.
+450k shares in 5 minutes, easy accumulation, 0.04cents rise and back to 2.5$
Where Voldermort will "invest" our taxes.
"There but for the grace of God go I."
Indeed.
seekingalpha.com/artic...
Someone don't like this stock....
Therefore, according to the negotiated in March and April, +30 million shares, which have gone these shares?
Maybe they are selling in circle to scare retail investors?
????
I'm not clear on what you mean here. Do you mean the number of trades? If so, I might have some thoughts. If that's not what you mean, I don't think I would have anything worth considering.
HardToLove
Yes, +30M shares traded in 48 days.
First, market makers. For both the equity and options contracts, both market makers are exempt from certain naked short sale prohibitions. These can create "phantom shares" as they are not required to borrow before shorting. If they are behaving according to the rules, they should cover in a relatively brief time.
Both of these groups short *and* cover later. So they effectively do two transactions for each short the initiate. This would appear as double the actual volume of their short sales. If put option buying is high in the retail/institutional arena, the options market makers wil short the equivalent number of share (contracts x 100).
If call writing (e.g. retail investors writing covered calls to make a little extra profit), the options market makers will be shorting the shares (contracts x 100) again.
Near or during options expiration week, they will be adjusting their positions to eliminate obligations for "low risk" items. That's why you should note unusually high volume and volatility in these weeks.
Since 90% of all options expire worthless and since the retail investor prefers cheap options, a very high percentage of these positions can be closed by the options market maker.
The cover their short positions that seem to be at very low risk of execution and sell the long positions (covering calls they may have written) that seem at low risk of being needed.
There largest amount of "phantom shares" is do to the equity market maker though. Intra-day they are constantly shorting and, if they are doing it "right", covering to provide liquidity to the market.
They also do this to service larger preferred customers that may have a large buy or sell order that needs to be satisfied. For this purpose, they may short sell more than normal to drive price down to help complete a large buy order at a low price, or buy small quantities at market to drive price up before executing a large sell order at a higher price. They then also dump their long positions.
A final note" watching the options open interest (OI) may often give a clue of what will be happening during options expiration week, or just before.
I hope this helps,
HardToLove
Good luck!
HardToLove
"... May 9, 2011, before the U.S. financial markets open. The announcement will be followed by a webcast and conference call hosted by Stanley C. Erck, President and Chief Executive Officer, and other members of senior management at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time".
www.prnewswire.com/new...
HardToLove
Hold your shares.
very low volume...
But I'm not looking at charts right now, so I could be wrong.
The whole market is selling off today, that's probably adding to the downward pressure. If the volume is low though, that means it's likely not a sell off.
Just normal trade stuff - remember that if market makers are providing most of the liquidity, they will sell small volumes at the bid since they can naked short those and it costs them nothing until they have to cover.
If they were to buy, that would be cash out of pocket.
So you can figure which way their bias will be.
Further, if their naked shorts drive the price down, they buy back cheaper than they sold, so they have *no* impetus to "provide liquidity" by raising the price.
Not much options action today, so I don't think that's a cause.
MHO,
HardToLove
Yes, but very agressive selling wih low volume... a strong signal since SPECIAL BIG BIDs weeks ago.... typical for distribution time.
Recap of the quarter accomplishments included in the PR.
www.prnewswire.com/new...
HardToLove
Did buy back into silver this morning, though, in a moderate way...
Made a few bucks (very few) on the CC play. Back into the patient pile this stock goes. Or...into the TA tradeable pattern it goes.
www.prnewswire.com/new...
Enlightened self-interest at play? Heh, no bump off this.
HardToLove
LOL, I've got drawers full of 'em. If I set them afire they might generate some warmth on a cold day, but then I'd probably get a ticket from der Goreacle's carbon cops.
10% total traded shares are shortsales...
20110502|NVAX|48.138
20110503|NVAX|106.268 high volume
20110504|NVAX|250.258 high volume
20110505|NVAX|106.723
20110506|NVAX|49.512
20110509|NVAX|53.166
20110510|NVAX|42.626
20110511|NVAX|77.022
----------------------...
733.713 shorted shares
Daily Volume:
May 11, 2011 518,631
May 10, 2011 655,090
May 9, 2011 638,478
May 6, 2011 440,569
May 5, 2011 641,531
May 4, 2011 1,725,069
May 3, 2011 1,098,818
May 2, 2011 1,358,658
----------------------...
7.076.844 shares traded
Monthly Short Interest:
*Down -17% March.
4/29/2011 7,628,714
4/15/2011 8,167,699
*3/31/2011 9,228,927
3/15/2011 10,207,435
----------------------...
I've been pursuing, for a very long time, a source for daily short activity. The last time I looked I had found one that gives the short side only, but no way to identify the "covering".
Would you be willing to provide your source for me? I would like to look at it, if it's free, and see if it "fills the holes".
I wrote some software, some months back, that generated daily short sales using the actual transaction reporting from FINRA and such sources.
I realized that without being able to either identify the covering purchases, which are not flagged in that data, or get an end-of-day aggregate total, or even a day-to-day aggregate ending short position, I couldn't use the data from the program without including code to just come up with estimated positions based on some "averages" based on historical data.
My goal is to make this available automatically to all of us, regardless of stock, if I can up with reliable sources of data.
It may be that what I need is not available for free or I just didn't find the correct source yet.
Thanks,
HardToLove
Novavax Incorporated
$ 2.30
NVAX
-0.05
Daily Short Sale Volume - NEW
view
Short Interest (Shares Short)
7,628,700
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio)
6.0
Short Percent of Float
view
Naked Short Selling List - NEW
view
Short Interest - Prior
8,167,700
Short % Increase / Decrease
-6.60
Short Squeeze Ranking™
view
I'm going to revisit the sources from my prior work - maybe I missed an item that would allow me to calculate similar results without having to spend money to get the information.
Thanks!
Here's your cyber reward in advance for doing so!
www.bing.com/videos/wa...
This is based on some investigation I did last year and noted a "cyclical" pattern to price action with a period of around 22 trading days, give or take. It does vary a little.
It is possible that it hits near $2.7x next week on higher than normal volatility and volumes for the first several days of the week.
That's why I've been waiting since my last short calls expired to sell another round.
HardToLove
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