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Swine Flu News Concentrator May 12, 2011 to July 29, 2011 103 comments
Explanation:
I will post Swine-Flu and related articles under this heading. The top of the instablog will contain my current months key links preceded with a one or two liner that explains the link. A more complete summary of the link will be in the comments area. At the bottom of the Instablog we have definition of terms, a summary of Swine Flu / vaccine investment plays, the 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map, Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu, and Memory Alpha which contains links to previous news concentrators and authors articles on the subject.
_____________________
Update History:
Added definition of Reassortment
Added definiton of R0 (R Naught)
Added Overview of H1N1 / Categories of Vaccine Investment Plays Added Memory Alpha
Added Link to Google's Swine Flu Infection Map
Added Red Cross Tips for Dealing With The Flu
Added definition of EUA and PREP act
Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into two parts for October
Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into three parts for October
Added Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 1
Bolded References to Older Swine Flu Concentrators in Memory Alpha
Expanded the list of stocks discussed in the tags
Alphabetized stocks in the tags
Updated the play by stock list
Added a table that contains the web site addresses for the companies discussed
Moved links over one month old to the new Memory Alpha Reference Library
Added definitions of Clinical Trials and Protocol.
Corrected Roche stock symbol in the web site table
_____________________
Last Swine Flu News Concentrator Links:
Swine Flu News Concentrator March 22, 2011 to May 12, 2011
tinyurl.com/3hgogm4
Swine Flu News Concentrator February 20, 2011 to March 22, 2011
tinyurl.com/4unv2hy
Swine Flu News Concentrator January 28, 2011 to February 20, 2011
tinyurl.com/4u9nlrz
Swine Flu News Concentrator January 11, 2011 to January 28, 2011
tinyurl.com/4maxxdv
Swine Flu News Concentrator December 18 (2010) to January 11, 2011
tinyurl.com/4gs9xzl
Swine Flu News Concentrator November 11 (2010) to December 18, 2010
tinyurl.com/22pykd8
Swine Flu News Concentrator September 23 to November 11 (2010)
tinyurl.com/29eflnpJ
Swine Flu News Concentrator June 14 to September 23 (2010)
http://tinyurl.com/294bzc6
Swine Flu News Concentrator April 8 to June 14
tinyurl.com/25lqvfx
Swine Flu News Concentrator (March 13 - April 8)
tinyurl.com/y8w7mgy
Swine Flu News Concentrator (February 12 - March 13)
tinyurl.com/ykba7dl
Swine Flu News Concentrator January 25 to February 12
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yjccho4
___________________
Some Definitions:
What is Reassortment
When two different virus strains infect the same host, they often exchange genes, a process known as reassortment.
A significant number of experts are concerned that as H5N1 (Avian Flu) spreads more widely and infects more people, it will come across more hosts who are also carrying human flu viruses. This increases the likelihood of a new strain emerging that has the severity of the bird flu virus and the infection rate of the swine flu virus, leading to a new global pandemic with much deadlier consequences than the one we are experiencing at the moment.
What is R naught (R 0)
How many people the average infected person infects is called the basic reproductive number, or R0 (pronounced "R naught").
Measles, which is probably mankind's most contagious infection, has an R0 of about 18. Polio's number is about 6; severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) about 5. For seasonal flu strains, the R0 is about 1.2, and for pandemic strains it is rarely higher than 2. For the novel H1N1 strain, it's about 1.6. What this low R0 means is that flu outbreaks are always teetering on the verge of having their myriad chains of transmission broken by people who get infected but don't pass the virus to anyone else.
Swine Flu - Novel H1N1 flu, popularly known as swine flu, is a respiratory infection caused by an influenza virus first recognized in spring 2009. The new virus, which is officially called swine influenza A (H1N1), contains genetic material from human, swine and avian flu viruses. (By Mayo Clinic staff)
Pandemic - The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people.
A World Health Organization phase 6 pandemic indicates that influenza due to the novel H1N1 swine flu is occurring in multiple countries around the world and that human infection is widespread. The classification does not reflect the severity of individual infections.
Cytokine Storm -
When our body detects foreign micro-organisms indicating an infection, our body might respond by over-protecting the site of infection. The body may race so many antibodies to the infection site that they collect in what is known as a cytokine storm.
A cytokine storm, or "Hypercytokinemia" is a potentially fatal immune reaction consisting of a positive feedback loop between cytokines and immune cells.
www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-st...
A positive feedback loop means that as something increases, that increase stimulates further growth.
What makes younger people more susceptible to H1N1 is that their “vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs.
This vulnerability in the young is reminiscent of the Spanish flu of 1918. That strain of flu also struck mostly healthy young adults.
Pulmonary Embolism - Occurs when a blood clot forms in an arm or leg breaks free and enters the lungs where it is too large to pass through the small vessels of the lungs and forms a blockage. This stops blood from flowing into an area of the lung, and the part of the lung dies because it does not receive oxygen.
medicalnewstoday.com/articles/153796.php
What is an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?
An EUA may be issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow either the use of an unapproved medical product or an unapproved use of an approved medical product during certain types of emergencies with specified agents.
What is the PREP Act?
The PREP Act authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (“Secretary”) to issue a declaration (“PREP Act declaration”) that provides immunity from tort liability (except for willfull misconduct) for claims of loss caused, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats and conditions determined by the Secretary to constitute a present, or credible risk of a future public health emergency to entities and individuals involved in the development, manufacture, testing, distribution, administration, and use of such countermeasures.
The PREP Act also authorizes an emergency fund in the United States Treasury to provide compensation for injuries directly caused by administration or use of a countermeasure covered by the Secretary’s declaration. While no funds have been appropriated for this purpose, if funds are appropriated, compensation may then be available for medical benefits, lost wages and death benefits to individuals for specified injuries.
cdc.gov/h1n1flu/eua/qa.htm
What are Clinical Trials:
Clinical trials, also known as clinical studies, are research studies in which scientists and doctors test new drugs and treatments to see if they will improve health. Many of today's treatments for cancer are based on the results of past clinical trials. Because of progress made through clinical trials, many people treated for cancer are now living longer.
Clinical trials are divided into four phases.
Phase 1 trials: These trials are the first time a new drug or treatment is given to humans. They are normally carried out in a small number of volunteers (typically 6-20 people) who may include healthy volunteers or patients with the disease for which the product is intended as a treatment in order to find out how safe the treatment is. They also look at how a new drug should be given (by mouth, injected into muscle or the bloodstream, etc.), how often and at what dose. Phase 1 trials can also involve patients for whom standard therapies have failed and for whom no other therapies are available.
Phase 2 trials: These trials involve larger numbers of people (typically 12 - 50). Phase 2 trials continue to look at safety of the therapy but also test how well the new drug or treatment works in patients with different disease types.
Phase 3 trials: These are large studies (100+ people) that look at how well a new drug or treatment works in comparison to current therapies to see which treatment is better. Those taking part are usually divided into two treatment groups: standard treatment versus new treatment.
Phase 4 trials: These trials are usually carried out after the drug or treatment has been approved by the FDA and is readily available for use in the general patient population. The purpose of Phase 4 trials is to continue to study the effects of the drug or treatment on different populations and to look for side effects associated with long-term use.
Back to Top
What is a Protocol:
Clinical trials use written guidelines called protocols. The protocol explains what the trial hopes to accomplish, how the trial will be carried out, and why each part of the trial is necessary. For example, the protocol includes:
* The reason for doing the trial
* How many people will be in the trial
* Who is eligible to take part in the trial
* What study drugs participants will need to take
* What medical tests participants will have and how often
* What information will be gathered
Every doctor or research center that takes part in the trial uses the same protocol. This makes sure that patients are treated identically no matter where they are receiving treatment, and that information from all the centers taking part can be combined and compared.
Why Slow Production for Traditionally Produced (chicken eggs) Swine Flu Vaccine:
One dose of swine flu vaccine for every two eggs, compared with two doses of
seasonal flu vaccine per egg
Sorry if the link does not work... it appears the Boston Globe newspaper appears to be playing games with link addresses... Just copy the link, and Google it.
http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/10/22/quest_for_swine_flu_vaccine_giving_some_firms_a_boost/
_____________________
Brief Overview of Categories of H1N1/ Vaccine Investment Plays:
I - Vaccines / Prevention
1) Production Method / Capacity plays (NVAX) (VICL) (NVS) (INO)
2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play (SVA - China) (NVAX - India)
3) Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) (BAX) (BDX)
4) Outsourced production plays
5) Bio -Defence (MDCGF - France)
6) Anti-Mutation / Pan-Influenza Play (CVM) (NNVC) (INO)
7) Universal Flu Vaccine Play (INO)
II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
1) Dealing with severe lung infections (Fludase® (DAS181)) (CBM) (AEMD)
2) ICU treatments (BCRX) (GSK) (ROG)
III - Population Avoidance:
1) masks/ disinfectants… Surgical masks are good enough (APT) (MMM) (CLX) (ECL) (PURE)
IV - Testing do you have it? (GPRO)
1) Test kits - (DGX)
V - Merger / Acquisitions / Licensing (VICL) (NVAX)
_____________________
Sorry this is still a graphic instead of a table. I played with the table tool, but its a
PITA to work with.
Swine Flu Companies Discussed and Their Web Sites
_____________________
Swine Flu Hits Stuffed Animal World:
2011 H1N1 US Flu Outbreak Map:
Here is a link that gives information by US states. The Link is from DoubleGuns
tinyurl.com/6khyjq
___________________
Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu:
IF YOU ARE ILL -
* Stay in a room separate from common areas of the home and avoid contact with others as much as possible.
* Stay at home for at least 24 hours after their fever is gone without using medicine to reduce the fever.
* Get lots of rest and drink plenty of fluids.
* Consider wearing a facemask, if available and tolerable, when sharing common spaces with household members. (ed - surgical masks ok).
* Check with your healthcare provider about whether to take antiviral medication, or if fever persists, whether antibiotics are needed.
WHEN CARING FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS THE FLU -
*Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces that everyone touches.
* Use detergent and very hot water to do dishes and wash clothes. It's okay to wash everyone's dishes and clothes together. Wash your hands after handling dirty laundry.
* Designate only one adult as the caregiver. People at increased risk of severe illness from the flu should not be caregivers.
* Although not mentioned by the Red Cross, the caregiver should probably ware a surgical mask as well when entering the sick room.
* Deal with crisis situations calmly and confidently to give the best support to the person being cared for.
_____________________
MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season
Click here to link to the Mayo tool:
www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...
_____________________
Suggeted Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown
www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php
After comparing more than two dozen possible scenarios for closing a school, the analysis suggested three optimal scenarios:
1. A single-day influenza-related absentee rate of 5 percent
2. Absenteeism of 4 percent or more on two consecutive days
3. Absenteeism of 3 percent or more on three consecutive days
Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.
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This post has 103 comments:
(NVAX): Keep in mind that, as I mentioned before, we should have hit the low sometime last week and maybe into this week and then begun a move higher as we approach options expiration week,
This is based on some investigation I did last year and noted a "cyclical" pattern to price action with a period of around 22 trading days, give or take. It does vary a little.
It is possible that it hits near $2.7x next week on higher than normal volatility and volumes for the first several days of the week.
That's why I've been waiting since my last short calls expired to sell another round.
HardToLove
Did anyone else take in NVAX's latest CC?
I seem to recall there may be some annoucement coming out of Mexico in a few weeks. I didn't take notes, and didn't think whatever it would be, would be significant enough to make the stock jump big. But this may be the driver in today's rise...besides Hard's terrific TA.
Not a pleasant task, nor a reliable method for most of us h00m0ns.
Plus, I don't habitually remind without a prompt, in this case by Merck, as I don't want to seem a nag and/or tooting my own horn. After all, I am new, working with experimental settings and don't want to avail my self of every possible opportunity to be proven *wrong*!
=>8-O
It's a thin and treacherous line I dance upon! :-)
HardToLove
ir.novavax.com/eventde...
The CC was pretty much ho-hum. I don't *recall* anything like that. But my memory is definitely suspect and overloaded constantly now.
It wasn't too long. Give a listen and maybe you'll catch something I overlooked.
HardToLove
P.S. I think I would've remembered anything like that since it would affect my plans to short calls again.
Yes, but we know that is how biopharma goes. All the Phase xxx trials, studies, getting gummit funding, FDA reviews, ... how could they not proceed glacially?
Recall that we've noted a rising trend at a rate of ... was it ~7.34% over a quarter. That rate may have reduced, if a newer trend line I'm tracking is holding sway, to 5.3%. So far, the newer one is holding, but over time it might not.
I want to add a shorter-term check, but I need to wait until we get through the options expiration week, maybe even EOM, and make sure we don't violate after options expiration.
I'll also want to again calculate the mean of recent - a few months - after the big spike and see if it is holding or moving.
HardToLove
HardToLove
VICAL & NVAX moves are in the same league....
HardToLove
Novavax the game.... nevers hold gains... Market UP & DOWN ...
May 16, 2011 at 10:30am. A live audio-only webcast link for the presentation can be accessed via the Company website at novavax.com under Investors/Events.
Nothing else in there.
www.prnewswire.com/new...
HardToLove
A decent presentation, nothing earth-shattering, but a good refresher.
Around 25 minutes, IIRC.
First event on the page today.
www.novavax.com/go.cfm...
HardToLove
HardToLove
New trend for next weeks will be in progress.
+5M shares traded... with special deal in last minute 1.9M.... private deal?
AH... +643k shares traded.... very low RISE for today volume.
seekingalpha.com/insta...
Anyway, that may account for the volume and point to an uptrend at a time when it would normally trend down between options expiration weeks.
xxxxx (fingers crossed)
HardToLove
To be honest, I have been following this blog in silence for a few weeks, and I am still trying to learn more about some stocks and this blog before I post further here. Much obliged for the good stuff here, and I am trying to dig up things that are useful to add here in due time.
Another Jackson Hole speech by the Bernank?
Lots of back and forth on Capitol Hill about the debt ceiling, this could well be part of the dickering...
I've been of the opinion that a deal WILL be struck - the Republicans lack the power to do much more than make it a discussion, get some of the bullet points into the media...
But COULD there be sufficient softness on the Conservative side to lay out a deal for QE3 without the formal dance of a 20% correction?
This bears watching, gang...
Ran across this article and recalled that you had interest in Vical.
They still have a flu vaccine under development, so it's not completely OT.
seekingalpha.com/artic...
Looking interesting, again, for the reasons stated in the article and the other items they have underway.
Just wanted to give you a heads up. Some of the TA indicators are swinging to positive too. But they have had a big run and might be reverting to the mean or consolidating right now.
HardToLove
Sangamo's tumbling to near $6.00 has moved it up on my radar list. Still hoping to snag some shares around $5.60.
www.issapharma.org/blo...
Glad I added that smidge of NVAX today, up 13 cents and 6.17% in AH trading.
If the CDC, or any organization, can get the DNA to Novavax early, they may be positioned to generate vaccines that work for ... up to 3(?) variations with one vaccination. What do they call it? Cross something? Anyway, receptor sites for up to three, IIRC, different strains can be produced on one VLP.
HardToLove
seekingalpha.com/artic...
www.presstv.ir/detail/...
CaY: If I were still focused on day or multi-day-long trading, Biocryst would be near the top on my list for some action tomorrow.
Though TCK would probably be my top choice (not a swine flu stock) for a long choice in the AM if the futures remain green overnight. Several shorts late in the day if the market shoots up big.
Guess I should have listened to my own thinking.
www.gavialliance.org/m...
2.10$ bottom NVAX.
Fake Day may 31, 2011 ,,, is the key.
6/15/2011 8,226,521 999,696 8.229023
5/31/2011 7,355,612 1,249,988 5.884546
20110531|NVAX|540.457 <<<<<---- Fake Day.... Big Bids, etc.
20110601|NVAX|184.204
20110602|NVAX|66.154
20110603|NVAX|163.034
20110606|NVAX|87.555
20110607|NVAX|64.850
20110608|NVAX|112.759
20110609|NVAX|70.935
20110610|NVAX|126.312
20110613|NVAX|101.087
20110614|NVAX|100.695
20110615|NVAX|284.090
----------------------...
1.901.952 Shorted shares
----------------------...
I see it executed a death cross on June 15th. Next significant support level appears to be between .9 and 1? Ugg!
The shorters action is likely a result of *knowing* that spikes seen on the BARDA award news *never* last (note the 14%+ short increase reported 3/15 period). Over the next 10 weeks, they were covering, backing out all of that increase and a substantial portion of the "old" short positions, and watching the descending trading channel develop.
As a result of observing a falling trading channel that has indicated no *strong* support prior to the current low area, other than the typical options expiration week induced rises that are a part of the cycle we constantly observe, since the spike on the BARDA grant news, the shorts likely considered the stock a good target and started hammering again.
We've entered the period where we normally see a rise start into options expiration week. There's 1,882 July 16 $3 strike, 494 $2 strike and 416 $4 strike calls open interest. If it becomes obvious to the market makers that the $3 and $4 strikes are not at risk of being executed, they will start dumping shares they may have bought to cover their short option positions. I believe this is what happened last options expiration week and kept price from rising as much as normal.
If they have not yet purchased the shares to cover and substantial price rise is seen they may start buying to cover, giving a small bump. But I think they're savvy enough to know they wont likely need to do this.
So I expect, as with last month, a muted rise into and through options expiration week. However, there's another consideration that *might* indicate a stronger rise. I'll touch on that later.
Long-term support @ $1.94 (8/25/10, 6/20/11 - this last on +50% the 25 day average). Both support actions occurred on above average (25 day) volume. So there's indicated good support at that level so far.
Since the "death cross" on 6/15/11, price action has exhibited strong consolidation behavior with highs capped by a falling former support line (origination @ low of 3/11, with "touches" of lows 4/14 and 6/8) now acting as resistance with touches of highs on 6/17, 6/20-6/21 and 6/24, this last Friday.
This falling resistance had a value of $2.02 Friday, 6/24, and has a slope of appx. ($0.006)/day.
Friday's volume was 242.3% the 25 day average of as of 6/23, on a higher open and close that resulted in a "spinning top" candlestick. This candlestick indicates a change is coming, but doesn't indicate direction. Other factors must be considered for that indication.
My short-term (5 day) Bollingers are ~$1.98 & $2.00 and have converged strongly - another indication that a change is likely.
TA indicators are mixed with 4 suggesting a short-term bullish trend may be coming. Oversold RSI starting to rise, recently exited from oversold stochastic which has crossed above its signal line, Williams %r barely oversold and MFI and money flow starting a positive turn. However, it's too early to act on these, I think, as OBV and ADX and related haven't turned sufficiently.
However, I do think a bullish trend that may yield about 10% is likely.
First, *if* the shorts behave as they did subsequent to the 3/15 period report when we saw 10 subsequent weeks of net covering, they will take advantage of these low prices and start an extended period of slow covering again. With lower average daily volume as compared to that prior period, they would be smart to go ahead an book the gains while reducing the risk of a catalyst-induced pop, like news on the RSV front or whatever. This might provide a mild increase in buying pressure.
If the options market makers are playing it straight and haven't yet covered their short calls, especially the $2 and $3 strikes, this is an excellent level at which to do so. Another small amount of buying pressure. Of course, if they have already covered their positions, they'll likely starting unloading the $4 and, maybe, the $3 strikes. This would appear as selling pressure and a price drop. But to maximize their profit they would wait and allow any price rise that might appear to develop first and then dump slowly. If this happens, there would be little selling pressure.
A lot depends on if and when they covered their short call positions. Prices were substantially higher when the transactions opening the calls occurred and *if* the market makers covered then, as they are supposed to, their price is high. The will do what they can to run the share price up, but not too much, before unloading their covering shares.
Here's my play and why.
I'll buy when it appears that price will close above the falling resistance if it occurs in the next three days on *rising* stronger volume. This would likely give an entry near $2.00. As we approach options expiration week we should near the low $2.2x price range (maybe as high as $2.25). On the way there should be a pause around the $2.10 area, but that shouldn't be the top. It should proceed on to the $2.2x area just before or during options expiration week.
When it does hit the $2.2x area, I'll sell - taking a nice ~10% in three weeks profit - or go short August $2 strike calls. With a 52% delta currently, this should put the premium in the $0.25 - $0.45 range. A higher profit percentage is achieved with one additional month of holding.
If I decide I don't want to risk holding the additional shares (I've already got a full core position), I won't do the options - I'll just sell the stock and I'll short the calls on my long-term blocks. I didn't short calls this last month because the price was too low and I knew an opportunity for a higher premium would appear. Since my cost-basis is so low, due to the previous rounds of short calls, I felt I could just wait until the next cycle played out.
As time decay occurs on options and another up/down leg cycle occurs, there is likely a good opportunity to exit the short call positions at a profit and end up with even more profit by selling the underlying shares after closing the options position. Profit on the options in this case would likely be about 1/2 the premium and the profit on the underlying should be around 4%-5% or so. However, if the shares are held through another up leg, the full profit potential (~10%) appears but at the added risk that the up leg does not appear or doesn't move as far as desired.
MHO,
HardToLove
Went from $2.02 to a high of $2.08 on total volume of ~1.68M shares and then plummeted to as low as $1.98 before recovering to $2.02 by 13:19.
This volume *alone* is great than the 881.8K 25 day average.
Somebody knows something or ...?
HardToLove
*That's* short's paradise! :-))
HardToLove
www.genomeweb.com/hous...
July 08, 2011
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By a GenomeWeb staff reporter
NEW YORK (GenomeWeb News) – A bill introduced in the US House of Representatives proposes extending the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) and funding for Project Bioshield, programs that fund and support development of medical countermeasures against pandemics and terrorist attacks.
Introduced by Rep. Mike Rogers (R – Mich.), the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Reauthorization Act of 2011 (H.R. 2405) would extend the BARDA program and Project BioShield's Special Reserve Fund (SRF) and other countermeasure and preparation programs.
The Department of Health and Human Services created the BARDA program in 2006 in part to respond to the financial risks faced by companies developing countermeasures to biological, chemical, and radiological threats, particularly to help them cover R&D costs that arise after government funding ends and commercialization begins – a sometimes three to five year period referred to as the "valley of death."
Rogers' office said in a statement that this funding gap "has impeded the development of countermeasures to protect the public."
Under the bill, BARDA would be authorized to receive up to $415 million for each fiscal year between 2012 and 2016.
The reserve fund would be authorized to receive up to $2.8 billion total during the 2014 to 2018 period.
The special reserve fund was created to maintain funds to buy medical countermeasures against anthrax, smallpox, botulism, and other threats for the Strategic National Stockpile.
This bill also would reauthorize other public health preparedness programs, strengthen the Food and Drug Administration's role in reviewing medical countermeasures, and enhance the position of Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) at HHS, Rogers' office said.
"Pandemics and chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons pose serious threats, and we need to work aggressively to prevent their use in another attack against the United States," Rogers said in a statement.
The bill was introduced last week and has been referred to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce.
www.dawsonjames.com/po...
Thought it was strange that they have the current price so far off, though. Guessing this is a reprint, but still a fine report.
news.in.msn.com/nation...
Swine flu surfacing; one dead, four more cases confirmed, 34 patients quarantined in hospitals, and 174 quarantined at home.
finance.yahoo.com/news...
The Republicans are quite well aware of the tiger trap set for them by Bill Clinton back when "they shut down the guvmint", which cost them dearly in political terms. This time around they seem to be playing a game of MAD chicken, but I believe they are fooling nobody.
They WILL cave, they know it, Voldemort knows it, and the lowliest Death Eater ready to squash another new American factory (should some foolish company contemplate such a stupid plan) knows it. Everything else is just puppet theatre, until the appointed hour.
I don't expect this thing to stretch out all the way to the point where anyone can rightly say that the Treasury has defaulted on our debt, but we've got some time still to go while this stupid passion spiele plays out.
Not sure about this, but NVAX's funding has already been allocated. Haven't yet read otherwise.
Anybody else know?
www.bioprepwatch.com/n...
www.nypost.com/p/news/...
The moral of the story: Be prepared!
Hey bud, gotta extra bun for my soiled buns? :-)
Am I missing something here? Is the suggestion that NVAX hasn't yet received a dime of the first tranche?
www.idsociety.org/Cont...
Here is what the orig BARDA release said:
Contract Includes $97 Million 3-year Base Period and $82 Million 2-year Option Period Base Period Will Fund Seasonal Influenza Vaccine through Phase 3 and Potential FDA
Licensure; Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Candidates through Phase 1/2 Clinical Trials
Includes Development of Manufacturing Plan to Establish a U.S.-based Facility with Surge Manufacturing Capacity of 50 Million Doses within Six Months of Influenza Pandemic
Company to Hold Investor Conference Call 10:00 am ET Today
ROCKVILLE, Md. – (March 1, 2011) – Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX) announced today that it has been awarded a contract valued at up to $179 million by the Office of Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) within the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) for the advanced clinical and manufacturing development of recombinant vaccines for the prevention of seasonal and pandemic influenza. During the contract’s 3-year base period, valued at $97 million, Novavax will continue to develop and manufacture its novel, clinical-stage, recombinant virus-like particle (VLP) influenza vaccines to address BARDA’s commitment to advancing recombinant-based technology and pandemic preparedness. The contract could be extended for an additional 24-month option period with $82 million in additional funding to build on the work Novavax accomplishes during the base period and to support manufacturing scale-up and licensure by the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA).
During the contract’s base period, funded activities would include:
three (3) clinical trials utilizing Novavax’s pandemic influenza VLP vaccine candidate with adjuvants (including Novavax’s proprietary adjuvant);
Phase 2 dose-ranging trial and Phase 3 registration trial utilizing Novavax’s seasonal influenza VLP vaccine candidate; and
development of a manufacturing facility plan that has the capability to produce finished vaccine within twelve (12) weeks and at least 50 million doses within six (6) months of an influenza pandemic declaration.
Novavax’s manufacturing facility plan will outline the design, construction, commissioning, qualification and validation of such a U.S.-based facility to produce recombinant seasonal and pandemic vaccines. Additional funded base period activities include vaccine product characterization, process development and scale–up of recombinant vaccine manufacturing including consistency lot manufacturing and lot- release assay development in support of the Phase 3 trial.
“We are thrilled to work with BARDA to accelerate the development of a recombinant influenza vaccine solution and help the U.S. government prepare for potential influenza pandemics,” said Novavax’s President and CEO, Dr. Rahul Singhvi. “This is a unique opportunity for our company to apply the knowledge we have gained over the past five years to address a critical public health need. We thank the team at HHS-BARDA for this contract to advance this important new technology, which will ultimately help our nation and the world to be better prepared to respond quickly to influenza pandemics and emerging diseases. This is a particularly satisfying day for all employees at Novavax to see the fruits of their labor over the past 5 years go toward such an important cause.”
“Biotechnology is a key part of the global innovation economy -- this vaccine program shows that Maryland is leading the way in innovation,” U.S. Senator Barbara A. Mikulski (D-MD) said. “Making vaccines available faster and to more people is important to our health, and this development will also contribute to jobs of the future. It’s a win-win for Maryland.”
Novavax is currently developing vaccines to prevent pandemic (H5N1) and seasonal influenza using its novel VLP technology, which enables more rapid vaccine production than traditional egg-based methods. The BARDA contract award follows the August 2010 Report to the President on Reengineering the Influenza Vaccine Production Enterprise to Meet the Challenges of Pandemic Influenza by the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, which analyzed current influenza vaccine production processes and identified ways the U.S. federal government could support improvements in relevant technologies to reduce the time required to supply vaccine to the U.S. population when the next influenza pandemic occurs.
Conference Call Information
Novavax’s senior management will host a conference call at 10:00 am Eastern time today to discuss this announcement. You may listen to the call on Novavax’s website at novavax.com under “Investor/Events” or by telephone at 1-877-212-6076 (domestic) or 1-707-287-9331 (international). To access a replay of the conference call, dial 1-800-642-1687 (domestic) or 1-706-645-9291 (international) and enter pass code 48683057.
About VLPs and Novavax’s Vaccine Program
Virus-like particles (VLPs) mimic the external structure of viruses but lack the live genetic material that causes viral replication and infection. VLPs can be designed quickly to match individual viral strains and be produced efficiently using portable cell-culture technology. Novavax’s VLP-based vaccine candidates are produced more rapidly than egg-based vaccines by using proprietary, portable, recombinant cell- culture technology.
About Novavax
Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, employs its cutting-edge technology to create next-generation vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases, such as pandemic and seasonal influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The company’s proprietary virus-like particles (VLPs) technology and single-use bioprocessing system enables rapid vaccine development and production where and when it’s needed, worldwide. The company has formed a joint venture with Cadila Pharmaceuticals, named CPL Biologicals, to develop and manufacture vaccines, biological therapeutics and diagnostics in India. Additional information about Novavax is available on the company’s website: novavax.com.
Forward Looking Statements
Statements herein relating to the award by HHS BARDA of a contract for the advanced development of recombinant influenza vaccine, the development of our vaccine products, vaccine safety and efficacy, and the ability to quickly
produce a vaccine product during an influenza pandemic and other future financial or business performance or matters are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Novavax cautions that these forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties, which change over time. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements include: HHS BARDA may or may not award any option period funding to Novavax; the Company has not yet manufactured, or relied on third parties to manufacture, any vaccines at a commercial scale; historical and current results may not be predictive of future trial results for the seasonal vaccine or any other vaccine that we are developing or may develop; further testing is required before regulatory approval can be applied for and the FDA may not approve a vaccine even if the results are similar or better than the results reported to date; uncertainties related to the initiation, enrollment, progress and completion of clinical trials; and whether Novavax could repeat the 12-week production of a vaccine in a future pandemic could depend on many factors outside the company’s control including the virus itself. Further information on the factors and risks that could affect Novavax’s business, financial conditions and results of operations, is contained in Novavax’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available at sec.gov. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this press release, and Novavax assumes no duty to update forward-looking statements.
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www.bioprepwatch.com/n...
"If they could do it that way, I think their thinking is, then it would be less expensive," Robert Cindrich, a senior adviser to UPMC President Jeff Romoff, said, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "If you were in the pharmaceutical business or had a vaccine factory, that might be attractive to you. We are not."
A real mover and shaker whom I'm not surprised at all to learn he now sits on the UPMC board.
What I'm gathering from both you and OG is that DC could renege on its BARDA contract? Do either of you believe this is likely? Plausible?
I'm asking not only on my behalf, but also because my nephew coincidently texted me this very morning that he's tiring of waiting for Novavax to make a move.
We have to remember that the govt does not do a good job determining what is necessary from what is wasteful! They tend to hamstring the important strategic projects.
Easy money is not synonymous NVAX, a very strong movement, may come from the 2Q results, I think the date is early August.
Good luck.
5.22% rise, yesterday.
NOT FEAR -BARDA- SIGA? NVAX?
Vical (VICL) to Receive up to $130 Million in Upfront and Development Milestones Plus Double-digit Royalties. Vical to Conduct Conference Call and Webcast at 8:00 a.m. ET Friday tinyurl.com/667g2dn
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Stock is up 9.5% to 4.71 in after hours.
Someone posted these articles about the antimicrobial qualities of copper on another board:
www.naturalnews.com/03...
www.naturalnews.com/02...
I was curious, so I Googled and discovered there is actually an Antimicrobial Copper website:
www.antimicrobialcoppe.../
HardToLove
seekingalpha.com/artic...
XD
JULY, 15 |NVAX| 24.000
JULY, 18 |NVAX| 47.442
JULY, 19 |NVAX| 339.535 - Spike DAY +7.56%-
JULY, 20 |NVAX| 67.300
I've written some programs that help us in this area. (NVAX).
Below is the month of July so far, through the 20th. You need to be aware, if not already, what these really mean. They aren't necessarily *real* shorts sales as you and I might view them. If you're not familiar with the market-maker actions, which entail a *lot* of "short sales", the results are misleading.
I'll be glad to discuss if you are not up-to-speed on this.
Note that the reported volumes from FINRA, displayed here, include *only* what's reported on the consolidated tape during NORMAL TRADING HOURS. Consequently, no pre or after market volumes are included and any "short sales" in out-of-hours would be excluded also.
Regardless, a "truer" picture can be obtained using volume from places such as finance.yahoo.com and calculating the percentage.
The important thing is *not* the absolute number as they are *meaningless* due to lack of complete information. But what I *think* *may* be useful is the trend, as a reduction of the percentage implies reduced selling pressure, regardless of short or not, and *possibly* buying pressure for purposes of covering short positions, whether "real" shorts" or market-maker shorts.
I can provide any months desired by day, by week, by month if you would find that useful.
The last day shown is the 20th. I removed a lot of the details to save space here.
TotVol 2334878, Sht 539392, less Ex 537892, Sht 23.10%, less Ex 23.04%
TotVol 1104298, Sht 304386, less Ex 291986, Sht 27.56%, less Ex 26.44%
TotVol 294380, Sht 108661, less Ex 108661, Sht 36.91%, less Ex 36.91%
TotVol 397089, Sht 157559, less Ex 157559, Sht 39.68%, less Ex 39.68%
TotVol 239608, Sht 129640, less Ex 124640, Sht 54.11%, less Ex 52.02%
TotVol 239795, Sht 119031, less Ex 119031, Sht 49.64%, less Ex 49.64%
TotVol 209230, Sht 93585, less Ex 89738, Sht 44.73%, less Ex 42.89%
TotVol 279667, Sht 185967, less Ex 185967, Sht 66.50%, less Ex 66.50%
TotVol 250303, Sht 70871, less Ex 70471, Sht 28.31%, less Ex 28.15%
TotVol 220295, Sht 58646, less Ex 58646, Sht 26.62%, less Ex 26.62%
TotVol 242597, Sht 122025, less Ex 119119, Sht 50.30%, less Ex 49.10%
TotVol 885120, Sht 542281, less Ex 542281, Sht 61.27%, less Ex 61.27%
TotVol 388474, Sht 141910, less Ex 141910, Sht 36.53%, less Ex 36.53%
HardToLove
Check ARIAD, the shortsale rise VS PPs rise....
As a result, the agreements have become effective, triggering the initial upfront payment of $25 M from Astellas to Vical, which is expected within 30 days. From: InPlay
Anyone know what the dilution potential is for VICL? They have a habit of doing that when the stock pops.
7/15/2011 7,788,801
6/30/2011 8,278,957
6/15/2011 8,226,521
5/31/2011 7,355,612
5/13/2011 7,368,774
4/29/2011 7,628,714
4/15/2011 8,167,699
3/31/2011 9,228,927
3/15/2011 10,207,435
2/28/2011 8,915,341
2/15/2011 8,971,688
1/31/2011 8,715,809
Since I've done this sort of thing so many times before on the blocks I now hold, it''s zero-risk since my cost basis is now well below $2.
Depending on how the charts look at various points, I'll either close them out around a nickel to take profits or let them expire on the 20th.
HardToLove
Either way, that could be a big tell.
Since then, into the crapper.
Might not be related, but I just find it interesting how they'll blame everything on incompetence and figure any change is an improvement.
I haven't visited Yahoo since, but I wonder if they are now busily bad-mouthing the new crew.
HardToLove
www.meattradenewsdaily...
Also, the first case of swine flu was determined in Italy, and in other news, 13 players in India contracted H1N1 at a global badminton tournament.
Somethings wrong - you sure it wasn't "avian (birdy) flue"?
<*ducks flying shoes*>
HardToLove
From: BBC News, By James Gallagher
The first antibody which can fight all types of the influenza A virus has been discovered, researchers claim.
Experiments on flu-infected mice, published in Science Express, showed the antibody could be used as an "emergency treatment". It is hoped the development will lead to a "universal vaccine" - currently a new jab has to be made for each winter as viruses change.
It has already been suggested that some people who had swine flu may develop 'super immunity' to other infections. Scientists from the Medical Research Council's National Institute for Medical Research at Mill Hill and colleagues in Switzerland looked at more than 100,000 samples of immune cells from patients who had flu or a flu vaccine. They isolated an antibody - called FI6 -, which targeted a protein found on the surface of all influenza a viruses called haemagglutinin.
Sir John Skehel, MRC scientist at Mill Hill, said: "We've tried every subtype of influenza A and it interacts with them all. "We eventually hope it can be used as a therapy by injecting the antibody to stop the infection." When mice were given FI6, the antibody was "fully protective" against a later lethal doses of H1N1 virus. tinyurl.com/3nq33nk
HardToLove
Nobel prizes flow from such as this.
Up 9.52% (+$0.12) today.
http://bit.ly/u47Nuz
Looks like a replay may be available here.
http://bit.ly/tC7pMl
Off to try and listen now.
HardToLove
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The final Markit U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index reached 54.0 in December... woo woo
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Good potential for a market whipsaw given the high for the cliff vote combined with unknowns of thePMI and ISM scheduled for this morning.
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Quadruple Witching occurs on Friday Dec 21.
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