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  • Swine Flu AND Medical News Concentrator July 7, 2013 To August 28, 2013 220 comments
    Jul 6, 2013 3:15 PM

    This instablog is designed as an interactive News Concentrator devoted to news and discussions about Swine Flu and other medical news.

    The top portion of the instablog contains useful background information/ charts.

    Up-to-date news content is posed in the comments area. So if you are interested in current news, read the comments.

    _____________________

    Update History:
    Added definition of Reassortment
    Added definition of R0 (R Naught)
    Added Overview of H1N1 / Categories of Vaccine Investment Plays Added Memory Alpha
    Added Link to Google's Swine Flu Infection Map
    Added Red Cross Tips for Dealing With The Flu
    Added definition of EUA and PREP act
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into two parts for October
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into three parts for October
    Added Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 1
    Bolded References to Older Swine Flu Concentrators in Memory Alpha
    Expanded the list of stocks discussed in the tags
    Alphabetized stocks in the tags
    Updated the play by stock list
    Added a table that contains the web site addresses for the companies discussed
    Moved links over one month old to the new Memory Alpha Reference Library
    Added definitions of Clinical Trials and Protocol.
    Corrected Roche stock symbol in the web site table
    _____________________
    Last Swine Flu News Concentrator Links:

    Swine Flu AND Medical News Concentrator January 1, 2013 to April 25, 2013:

    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalp...-13252151

    Swine Flu AND Medical News Concentrator October 13, 2012 To December 31, 2012.

    tinyurl.com/agndtk4

    Swine Flu News Concentrator June 13, 2012 to October 13, 2012

    tinyurl.com/9l3u3d6

    Swine Flu News Concentrator July 30, 2011 to June 13, 2012tinyurl.com/6nfvspe

    Swine Flu News Concentrator May 12, 2011 to July 29, 2011tinyurl.com/3m7hcfp

    Swine Flu News Concentrator March 22, 2011 to May 12, 2011
    tinyurl.com/3hgogm4

    Swine Flu News Concentrator February 20, 2011 to March 22, 2011
    tinyurl.com/4unv2hy

    Swine Flu News Concentrator January 28, 2011 to February 20, 2011
    tinyurl.com/4u9nlrz

    Swine Flu News Concentrator January 11, 2011 to January 28, 2011
    tinyurl.com/4maxxdv

    Swine Flu News Concentrator December 18 (2010) to January 11, 2011
    tinyurl.com/4gs9xzl

    Swine Flu News Concentrator November 11 (2010) to December 18, 2010
    tinyurl.com/22pykd8

    Swine Flu News Concentrator September 23 to November 11 (2010)
    tinyurl.com/29eflnpJ

    Swine Flu News Concentrator June 14 to September 23 (2010)
    http://tinyurl.com/294bzc6

    Swine Flu News Concentrator April 8 to June 14
    tinyurl.com/25lqvfx

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (March 13 - April 8)
    tinyurl.com/y8w7mgy

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (February 12 - March 13)
    tinyurl.com/ykba7dl

    Swine Flu News Concentrator January 25 to February 12
    http://preview.tinyurl.com/yjccho4

    ___________________
    Some Definitions:

    What is Reassortment

    When two different virus strains infect the same host, they often exchange genes, a process known as reassortment.

    A significant number of experts are concerned that as H5N1 (Avian Flu) spreads more widely and infects more people, it will come across more hosts who are also carrying human flu viruses. This increases the likelihood of a new strain emerging that has the severity of the bird flu virus and the infection rate of the swine flu virus, leading to a new global pandemic with much deadlier consequences than the one we are experiencing at the moment.

    What is R naught (R 0)

    How many people the average infected person infects is called the basic reproductive number, or R0 (pronounced "R naught").

    Measles, which is probably mankind's most contagious infection, has an R0 of about 18. Polio's number is about 6; severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) about 5. For seasonal flu strains, the R0 is about 1.2, and for pandemic strains it is rarely higher than 2. For the novel H1N1 strain, it's about 1.6. What this low R0 means is that flu outbreaks are always teetering on the verge of having their myriad chains of transmission broken by people who get infected but don't pass the virus to anyone else.

    Swine Flu - Novel H1N1 flu, popularly known as swine flu, is a respiratory infection caused by an influenza virus first recognized in spring 2009. The new virus, which is officially called swine influenza A (H1N1), contains genetic material from human, swine and avian flu viruses. (By Mayo Clinic staff)

    Pandemic - The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people.

    A World Health Organization phase 6 pandemic indicates that influenza due to the novel H1N1 swine flu is occurring in multiple countries around the world and that human infection is widespread. The classification does not reflect the severity of individual infections.

    Cytokine Storm -
    When our body detects foreign micro-organisms indicating an infection, our body might respond by over-protecting the site of infection. The body may race so many antibodies to the infection site that they collect in what is known as a cytokine storm.

    A cytokine storm, or "Hypercytokinemia" is a potentially fatal immune reaction consisting of a positive feedback loop between cytokines and immune cells.
    www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-st...

    A positive feedback loop means that as something increases, that increase stimulates further growth.

    What makes younger people more susceptible to H1N1 is that their "vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs.

    This vulnerability in the young is reminiscent of the Spanish flu of 1918. That strain of flu also struck mostly healthy young adults.

    Pulmonary Embolism - Occurs when a blood clot forms in an arm or leg breaks free and enters the lungs where it is too large to pass through the small vessels of the lungs and forms a blockage. This stops blood from flowing into an area of the lung, and the part of the lung dies because it does not receive oxygen.
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/153796.php

    What is an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?
    An EUA may be issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow either the use of an unapproved medical product or an unapproved use of an approved medical product during certain types of emergencies with specified agents.

    What is the PREP Act?
    The PREP Act authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services ("Secretary") to issue a declaration ("PREP Act declaration") that provides immunity from tort liability (except for willful misconduct) for claims of loss caused, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats and conditions determined by the Secretary to constitute a present, or credible risk of a future public health emergency to entities and individuals involved in the development, manufacture, testing, distribution, administration, and use of such countermeasures.

    The PREP Act also authorizes an emergency fund in the United States Treasury to provide compensation for injuries directly caused by administration or use of a countermeasure covered by the Secretary's declaration. While no funds have been appropriated for this purpose, if funds are appropriated, compensation may then be available for medical benefits, lost wages and death benefits to individuals for specified injuries.
    cdc.gov/h1n1flu/eua/qa.htm

    What are Clinical Trials:
    Clinical trials, also known as clinical studies, are research studies in which scientists and doctors test new drugs and treatments to see if they will improve health. Many of today's treatments for cancer are based on the results of past clinical trials. Because of progress made through clinical trials, many people treated for cancer are now living longer.

    Clinical trials are divided into four phases.
    Phase 1 trials: These trials are the first time a new drug or treatment is given to humans. They are normally carried out in a small number of volunteers (typically 6-20 people) who may include healthy volunteers or patients with the disease for which the product is intended as a treatment in order to find out how safe the treatment is. They also look at how a new drug should be given (by mouth, injected into muscle or the bloodstream, etc.), how often and at what dose. Phase 1 trials can also involve patients for whom standard therapies have failed and for whom no other therapies are available.

    Phase 2 trials: These trials involve larger numbers of people (typically 12 - 50). Phase 2 trials continue to look at safety of the therapy but also test how well the new drug or treatment works in patients with different disease types.

    Phase 3 trials: These are large studies (100+ people) that look at how well a new drug or treatment works in comparison to current therapies to see which treatment is better. Those taking part are usually divided into two treatment groups: standard treatment versus new treatment.

    Phase 4 trials: These trials are usually carried out after the drug or treatment has been approved by the FDA and is readily available for use in the general patient population. The purpose of Phase 4 trials is to continue to study the effects of the drug or treatment on different populations and to look for side effects associated with long-term use.
    Back to Top

    What is a Protocol:
    Clinical trials use written guidelines called protocols. The protocol explains what the trial hopes to accomplish, how the trial will be carried out, and why each part of the trial is necessary. For example, the protocol includes:

    * The reason for doing the trial
    * How many people will be in the trial
    * Who is eligible to take part in the trial
    * What study drugs participants will need to take
    * What medical tests participants will have and how often
    * What information will be gathered

    Every doctor or research center that takes part in the trial uses the same protocol. This makes sure that patients are treated identically no matter where they are receiving treatment, and that information from all the centers taking part can be combined and compared.

    Why Slow Production for Traditionally Produced (chicken eggs) Swine Flu Vaccine:
    One dose of swine flu vaccine for every two eggs, compared with two doses of
    seasonal flu vaccine per egg

    Sorry if the link does not work... it appears the Boston Globe newspaper appears to be playing games with link addresses... Just copy the link, and Google it.

    http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/10/22/quest_for_swine_flu_vaccine_giving_some_firms_a_boost/

    _____________________
    Brief Overview of Categories of H1N1/ Vaccine Investment Plays:

    I - Vaccines / Prevention
    1) Production Method / Capacity plays (NASDAQ:NVAX) (NASDAQ:VICL) (NYSE:NVS) (NASDAQ:INO) (NYSE:CSL)
    2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play (SVA - China) (NVAX - India)
    3) Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) (NYSE:BAX) (NYSE:BDX)
    4) Outsourced production plays
    5) Bio -Defense (MDCGF - France)
    6) Anti-Mutation / Pan-Influenza Play (NYSEMKT:CVM) (NYSEMKT:NNVC) (INO)
    7) Universal Flu Vaccine Play (INO)

    II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
    1) Dealing with severe lung infections (Fludase® (DAS181)) (NYSE:CBM) (OTCQB:AEMD)
    2) ICU treatments (NASDAQ:BCRX) (NYSE:GSK) (NYSE:ROG)
    III - Population Avoidance:
    1) masks/ disinfectants… Surgical masks are good enough (NYSEMKT:APT) (NYSE:MMM) (NYSE:CLX) (NYSE:ECL) (OTCQB:PURE)

    IV - Testing do you have it? (NASDAQ:GPRO)
    1) Test kits - (NYSE:DGX)

    V - Merger / Acquisitions / Licensing (VICL) (NVAX)
    _____________________
    Sorry this is still a graphic instead of a table. I played with the table tool, but its a
    PITA to work with.

    Swine Flu Companies Discussed and Their Web Sites

    _____________________
    Swine Flu Hits Stuffed Animal World:

    Link to 2011 H1N1 US Flu Outbreak Map is broken... sorry.

    Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu:

    IF YOU ARE ILL -
    * Stay in a room separate from common areas of the home and avoid contact with others as much as possible.

    * Stay at home for at least 24 hours after their fever is gone without using medicine to reduce the fever.

    * Get lots of rest and drink plenty of fluids.

    * Consider wearing a face mask, if available and tolerable, when sharing common spaces with household members. (ed - surgical masks ok).

    * Check with your healthcare provider about whether to take antiviral medication, or if fever persists, whether antibiotics are needed.

    WHEN CARING FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS THE FLU -
    *Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces that everyone touches.

    * Use detergent and very hot water to do dishes and wash clothes. It's okay to wash everyone's dishes and clothes together. Wash your hands after handling dirty laundry.

    * Designate only one adult as the caregiver. People at increased risk of severe illness from the flu should not be caregivers.

    * Although not mentioned by the Red Cross, the caregiver should probably ware a surgical mask as well when entering the sick room.

    * Deal with crisis situations calmly and confidently to give the best support to the person being cared for.
    _____________________

    MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season

    Click here to link to the Mayo tool:
    www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...

    _____________________
    Suggested Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php

    After comparing more than two dozen possible scenarios for closing a school, the analysis suggested three optimal scenarios:

    1. A single-day influenza-related absentee rate of 5 percent

    2. Absenteeism of 4 percent or more on two consecutive days

    3. Absenteeism of 3 percent or more on three consecutive days

    Disclosure: (sometimes trading, sometimes holding)

    Disease outbreak map on Globalincident.com

    tinyurl.com/c8f3do

    Link from Guns and OG.

Back To FocalPoint Analytics' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (220)
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  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    For this and and all you do, our continued thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jul 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    NVAX, not much meat here, but a decent reminder & summary:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    8 Jul 2013, 05:01 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    Novavax Initiates First Phase 1 Clinical Trial of Its A(H7N9) Influenza Vaccine Candidate

     

    Jul 8, 2013 07:30:05 (ET)

     

    ROCKVILLE, Jul 08, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE via COMTEX) -- Novavax, Inc. today announced that enrollment has begun in a Phase 1 clinical trial of its monovalent virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine candidate for the prevention of disease due to A/Anhui/1/13-like A(H7N9) avian influenza viruses (A(H7N9) vaccine).

     

    This Phase 1, randomized, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled trial will enroll up to 280 eligible adults. Each subject will be randomized into one of seven treatment groups, including placebo, or varying doses of the A(H7N9) vaccine, with or without an adjuvant. Each subject will receive two identical intramuscular doses at Day 0 and Day 21 and undergo study follow-up for approximately one year after the second dose. All subjects will be evaluated for safety and immunogenicity.

     

    "Novavax has moved our program rapidly from the A/Anhui/1/13-like (H7N9) viral gene sequence, to vaccine candidate, into multiple animal studies, and now, exactly three months after the gene sequence was obtained, into a clinical trial," said Stan Erck, President and Chief Executive Officer of Novavax. "We expect to report top-line results from this clinical trial later this year. This level of performance is a testament to the Novavax technology and the hard-work and commitment of its people. It serves as a powerful example of the Company's ability to respond rapidly to any future pandemic event."
    9 Jul 2013, 04:34 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    9:55 AM Inovio Pharmaceuticals' (INO +14.7%) vaccine for the newly emergent A/Anhui/1/13 subtype of the H7N9 strain of bird flu protected 100% of mice in a pre-clinical study, with all the animals surviving despite receiving a lethal dose of the virus. However, Inovio is behind Novavax (NVAX), which has already started Phase I trials for A/Anhui/1/13-like A(H7N9). (PR) [Healthcare, On the Move] 2 Comments
    9 Jul 2013, 04:40 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    (VICAL) and Allovectin Phase 3 results

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 Jul 2013, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    9:31 AM BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX +6.13%) says the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority has released funding which will allow the company to complete an NDA for peramivir. (PR) [Healthcare, On the Move] Comment!
    12 Jul 2013, 05:30 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    FDA grants emergency approval for test to detect MERS

     

    http://fxn.ws/15KYTaF

     

    Does not say what agency or company was given this emergency approval. Anyone know?

     

    EDIT: here is the FDA page: http://1.usa.gov/15KZbOE

     

    The CDC was issued authorization for its PCR test on June 5. This is old news, but just picked up by a Reuters reporter.
    16 Jul 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps more old news to those who have watched this closely, but evidence for H7N9 drug resistance is growing in the scientific literature:

     

    http://bit.ly/18nB64u:

     

    <<
    The study, which examined the viruses in a single person infected with H7N9, found that a portion of the H7N9 viruses lurking inside the person were resistant to the antiviral drugsoseltamivir (marketed as Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza). About 35 percent of the viruses were resistant to these drugs, while 65 percent were sensitive, the researchers said.

     

    Treating such "mixed populations" of flu viruses within a single patient can be problematic — giving the patient oseltamivir or zanamivir may increase resistance to those drugs.
    >>

     

    http://bit.ly/18nB7FA:

     

    <<
    In the mBio study, the authors tested antiviral susceptibility of an H7N9 strain isolated from the first confirmed human case of avian H7N9 influenza using a method that tests the activity of the neuraminidase enzyme. The reassuring results were, unfortunately, misleading: the enzyme-based test indicated that the flu strain was susceptible to NA inhibiting antiviral drugs, but it is not.

     

    A closer look at the viral isolate revealed it is actually made up of two distinct types of H7N9 viruses. Roughly 35% of the viruses carry the R292K mutation, making them resistant to NA inhibitors, and 65% are sensitive to these same drugs. The enzyme-based testing gave misleading results, says Webster, because the functioning wild-type enzymes masked the presence of the non-functioning mutant enzymes.

     

    Using NA inhibitors to treat a patient infected with a resistant strain of H7N9 only encourages the virus to proliferate and can lead to enhanced spread of the resistant strain. The authors write that these results prove that it is crucial to use a gene-based surveillance technique that can detect these resistant influenza strains in a mixed infection.

     

    ...

     

    If the recent history of H5N1 influenza is a guide, says Webster, then H7N9 could rapidly evolve the ability to spread from person to person. If it does, and if the virus reemerges in the fall, the situation with H7N9 could become quite serious. In the event of a widespread outbreak, Tamiflu and Relenza will work alright as treatments, but the development of the R292K mutation puts those options in jeopardy, says Webster.
    >>
    17 Jul 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Pretty cool development!

     

    3:12 PM Sangamo BioScience (SGMO +5.2%) moves up after the company publishes research using zinc finger DNA-binding protein technology to insert a gene that will essentially "silence" the extra copy of a gene that causes Downs Syndrome. The procedure provides a model for studying the basic biology of Down Syndrome, and could enable the development of drugs that can potentially rebalance the cellular processes and pathologies that are affected by the disorder.

     

    ####

     

    I just can't seem to get an entry price I like with this biotech. The news cycle keeps propping up SGMO. I have 50 measly shares in the gamer account that are up around 125%. Previously, I wanted to buy in around $6.50 in the brokerage account, but it looks like I may have to raise it up to the $8.00 area.
    17 Jul 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    I've been watching it too. I hate to pay $8, just wondering if they will have to raise capital ?
    If so, maybe after that.
    17 Jul 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    LT: Here's a pretty good article about SGMO, and its cash positions, grants, cash burn rate, etc.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    It appears SGMO is still several years away from becoming cash flow positive. So we may someday get our chance at $8.00 or lower.
    17 Jul 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    4:25 PM Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) slides 10.3% AH as the company says the FDA has placed a partial clinical hold on the ongoing U.S. Phase 2 study of VX-135 due to concerns regarding elevated liver enzymes in patients receiving 400 mg doses in combination with ribavirin. (PR) [Healthcare, On the Move] Comment!
    26 Jul 2013, 04:41 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There is an interesting article http://tinyurl.com/l5g... that discusses another reason why (VICL) is worth considering as an investment today. There appear to be some inaccuracies with respect to the biochemistry the author mentions in passing. However, the intent of his article is to point out that the success of a VICL investment is not married to success of the Allovectin trial and that investors should also take note of the current revenue stream associated with their TransVax Astellas collaboration, and the promising results and potential revenue stream associated with CyMVectin. Both of the latter two products deal with CMV.

     

    One of the commenters does not appear capable of understanding the intent of the article and is instead focusing on the inaccuracies of the biochemistry associated with Allovectin. The article is not focused on VICLs Alovectin trial, its focused on the importance of the CMV line of business with respect to revenues.

     

    I guess the commenter does not realize the intent of the SA site is to identify good investments. In my opinion, the information provided does focus attention on a sizable revenue stream that investors might overlook during the Allovectin trial frenzy. To my way of thinking, that makes it a successful article.

     

    Head on over and take a look at the VICL part of the article and let me know what you think?
    26 Jul 2013, 05:30 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    >FPA-

     

    Not being a scientist I can still say I found very positive information in the VICL portion of the article as well as in your comment.

     

    I had a close friend die last year as a result of a stem cell procedure virus development that took his life. VICAL's TransVax may well have prevented the viral infection.

     

    Thanks for pointing this out!

     

    WT
    26 Jul 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    It is a very interesting technology, the TransVax product, but I was not impressed with the author's scientific depth. And I was somewhat offended by his opening statement "Oncology is what I would call sexy biotech."

     

    He obviously has never worked on an oncology service.

     

    I generally shy away from cancer drug stocks, for personal moral reasons, as well as my experience that few of them are truly effective at curing malignancies and often do more harm and injury than good in the process of trying to prolong life. It is a very tough decision for an individual faced with such life-threatening disease, and companies that hype chemotherapy drugs that end up being marginally effective are often selling false hope to the public and the victims.

     

    OK, enough soapbox for today.
    26 Jul 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Very good point Doc.
    26 Jul 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    You know I am a retired Critical Care RN, and I am so glad to see you post this about Cancer drugs and treatments..thanks.
    26 Jul 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Yes, LT.

     

    You clearly know the heartache of treating oncology patients.
    26 Jul 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    I always looked at some of those cancer drugs as a prolong your life for a couple of months at the expense of your complete savings account, stocks, bonds etc.....sorry if that seems offensive but they charge so much for such little time they deliver.
    30 Jul 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry for all the deletes on the above comment... I was having trouble with the link.
    26 Jul 2013, 05:31 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    Maybe this will get this stock moving now:

     

    Novavax vaccine-induced immunity provided 100% protection against lethal wild-type A(H7N9) influenza challenge versus 0% survival in control (H5N1) vaccine and placebo groups
    Achieved complete cross-protection with its H7N3 VLP vaccine against H7N9 challenge
    Animal model efficacy data supports clinical development of an H7N9 VLP vaccine
    29 Jul 2013, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/19syf9P

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jul 2013, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Here is the paper:

     

    http://bit.ly/17OOj1L

     

    Impressive results in mice. Let's hope it is equally effective at immunizing humans.
    29 Jul 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here is another SA article on (VICL) that spells out what is on the line for investors with the Allovectin Phase III trial. This trial should produce results by the end of the third quarter, or sometime within the next two months.

     

    The article estimates a considerable upside +200-300% with good results. If the results are poor, Vical is likely to drop significantly -70% or more. http://tinyurl.com/mev...
    ---
    This is a high risk play. Great upside, but if the trial fails...
    At this point in time, I don't know. Here is a link that shows insider trading: http://tinyurl.com/mby....

     

    Disclosure: Substantial VICL holding.
    29 Jul 2013, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    (MDXG) I don't recall if I mentioned this company last week, but it is on my radar and I started a position last week.

     

    Today's news is extremely positive:

     

    http://bit.ly/13jZ3FF
    30 Jul 2013, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    >SM-

     

    Re: (MDXG)

     

    I like the story and the latest news.

     

    I just read this two week old article that causes me pause.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I assume you have seen it? Thoughts
    31 Jul 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    I saw it and thought it was not helpful. The author is unknown to me, has no position in the stock, has no real understanding of the technology. He can cut and paste and get an article published. He is calling it for the momo casino lizards, and his perspective is not one of long-term investing.

     

    Yes it is a high risk developmental company.

     

    I think Iggy's article has a more informed perspective: http://bit.ly/17ikHHS

     

    With the recent positive PR about the very positive phase II studies, it will be a roller coaster ride for a while. But I see tremendous long-term potential in the technologies they are developing.
    31 Jul 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    Read Iggy's article- MOST helpful- Thanks!
    31 Jul 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (VICL) had a big pop today, very likely associated with an SA article. The title of the article was quite impressive, but I found the article's analysis as incomprehensible. When the stock popped, I decided to take 31% profits, and reduced my risk exposure.

     

    I reasoned that taking good profits now means I can afford to buy late if the trial for Allovectin is successful.

     

    I am still long (VICL).
    30 Jul 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    Congrats Rattie! And good move too I bet.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jul 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    I love cheering on a winner. Go Rattie!!!
    31 Jul 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    >FPA-

     

    Re: (VICL)

     

    As one who did put in a BUY order based on your comments-

     

    THANKS, RATTY!
    31 Jul 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Second that, FPA, and I wish I had acted on your info the other day.

     

    Congrats!
    30 Jul 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I closed the rest of my (VICL) position today. I will now watch and wait.
    31 Jul 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Congrats, Rat.

     

    I remember the first time I posted about VICL on this blog, I think it went up about 30% immediately. It was one of my first posts on a concentrator.
    31 Jul 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    >SMaturin-

     

    You might this of interest- Guy my wife went to school with in the 60s got quite a recognition for his research with Gila Monstor venom and diabetes. Amylin Pharmaceuticals is the developer of the drug.

     

    http://bit.ly/12IG4pL
    1 Aug 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    That's probably great news for the Gila Monsters too. Maybe there will be a breeding program for Gila Monsters now. They are on the protected list because they are rare (near threatened status). Who knows what other drugs will be discovered from them.
    1 Aug 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Another example of "What doesn't kill you makes you stronger".
    1 Aug 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    Yep. I've heard of highly potent snake venom being used to treat arthritus and heart diseases and auto-immune issues as well.

     

    Some like the Cottonmouth and Copperhead venom produces a virulent clotting factor that may be used in some surgical procedures.
    1 Aug 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Even the simple honey bee sting can be good for arthritis or MS.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aZgInz

     

    http://bit.ly/1aZgKvJ
    1 Aug 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Great story, WT!
    1 Aug 2013, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    RXI has done a reverse split and applied for listing. http://yhoo.it/15gp4Yu I haven't yet had time to look at this development. Any thoughts.
    1 Aug 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Looks beyond speculative Robert..
    1 Aug 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Greetings. Thanks for the input. It's always been a spec play. The spinoff of (GALE) was profitable but I'm not sure where this one is going or what is in their pipeline that remains attractive. I've just been too busy to do much research.
    1 Aug 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    I don't like the looks of it. Give the reverse split some time to settle in before making any move...
    2 Aug 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    Robert-
    The only thing that I saw was that the stock caved by 50% right after the reverse split. Could be that some ignorant of the facts thought the stock took off? Or more likely were just taking advantage of the marketability of the higher price consolidation.
    2 Aug 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to all who took a look and gave an opinion. This is an interesting interview with the CEO of Galena Biopharma. (GALE) http://seekingalpha.co...
    5 Aug 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Bird flu strain in China 'passed between humans'
    http://tinyurl.com/msz...
    7 Aug 2013, 01:41 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    And flu season has yet to begin.
    7 Aug 2013, 04:14 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    That adds a new element to the equation.

     

    Especially the part where it says.....BOTH LATER DIED!!!
    7 Aug 2013, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    (ACAD) Pimavanserin getting good press in the medical news:

     

    Pimavanserin reduced Parkinson’s psychosis without motor worsening
    http://bit.ly/19abhVG
    7 Aug 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    NVAX losses increased, and so did their spending on research. No surprise there, but they got beaten up badly after announcing their big losses, down around 4.5%.
    The back story still sounds great to me. I'm in and enjoying the progress in their various studies and vaccine developments. Maybe I am wrong, but this is the kind of risk to expect from NVAX, and I am not discouraged.
    8 Aug 2013, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Flu season has yet to begin in the northern hemisphere, where most humans live packed closely together.
    9 Aug 2013, 03:58 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    I am still in a lot from 2009 and 2010. I have shares at $6.09, 4.13, 4.0, 3.97, and I doubled down at $2.20. I have a bloody nose but will be staying for the full 12 rounds. Contemplating more to get my average down.....but not sure I want to have a black eye for a while too.... black eye would probably be from my financial advisor.
    9 Aug 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    I still have a substantial long position and may acquire more. Thanks Oy, Gee!
    9 Aug 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Dromedary camels could be responsible for passing to humans the deadly Mers coronavirus that emerged last year, research suggests.

     

    Tests have shown the Mers (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) virus, or one that is very closely related, has been circulating in the animals, offering a potential route for the spread.

     

    The study is published in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases.
    9 Aug 2013, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Thankfully I sold all my camels awhile back and have not bought any in a long time. They came in packs of 20.
    9 Aug 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    And here I thought you were interested in goats...
    9 Aug 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    Depends on how much he had to drink: on his knees, goats more suitable than those long-legged beasties.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Aug 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Even sober I would not attempt to milk a camel. I know I can't win a fight with a camel but I am not so concerned with a goat.....at least not yet. Maybe after the first round I will have a different opinion.
    9 Aug 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    There's a reason they remove those horns, DG...
    9 Aug 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Milking the ones with horns can be a very embarrassing moment. Pray tell you did not do that.
    9 Aug 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    THATS also one of the reasons they remove the horns, but that only applies in certain middle eastern countries.
    9 Aug 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Still not telling I see. OK. Don't ask-dont tell is now in effect.
    9 Aug 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    I have not been tracking NVAX for a while, how is its cash burn / cash position looking? Is there a funding event looming somewhere?
    9 Aug 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Can not get a link to this damn thing. So here is the entire elephantine report. Not the preferred method. It's behind my password in Etrade.

     

    Novavax Reports Second-Quarter 2013 Financial ResultsFont size: A | A | A
    8:00 AM ET 8/8/13 | GlobeNewswire
    Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq:NVAX), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company creating novel recombinant nanoparticle vaccines to address a broad range of infectious diseases, today announced its financial results for the second quarter and six months ended June 30, 2013.

     

    Key Recent Corporate Highlights

     

    -- In April, Novavax announced positive top-line data from its RSV vaccine Phase 2 clinical trial in women of childbearing age. In July, the company announced positive top-line safety and immunogenicity data for its RSV vaccine candidate from a dose-ranging Phase 1 study in elderly adults. Together, these clinical findings provide a solid rationale for moving forward with this vaccine candidate.

     

    -- In July, Novavax announced that enrollment had begun in a Phase 1 clinical trial of its H7N9 influenza vaccine candidate. This followed the company's analysis, optimization and synthesis of the genes, as well as recombinant baculovirus vector construction, batch purification and administration to animals, all in 28 days. Novavax also announced in July that positive pre-clinical data for its H7N9 influenza vaccine candidate had been published online in the peer-reviewed journal Vaccine.

     

    -- In July, Novavax completed its initial public tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares and warrants of Sweden-based Isconova AB. Isconova AB is an international company focused on the development of saponin-based, immune-modulating adjuvants that promote the immunogenic effect of vaccines. Novavax accepted the tender of 97.4% of Isconova's outstanding shares along with 100% of the warrants and extended the offer period to August 20, 2013 for any remaining untendered shares.

     

    -- Following reports of the emerging Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS), Novavax announced in June that it had successfully produced and initiated pre-clinical testing for a MERS vaccine candidate. The vaccine candidate, which was made using Novavax' recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology, is based on the major surface spike protein. The company believes that its MERS vaccine candidate could offer a viable option to global public health authorities.

     

    -- In June, Barclay "Buck" Phillips was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Phillips brings recent public biotech CFO experience along with a long history of experience in financing biotech companies.

     

    "We have continued to demonstrate measurable progress in our RSV and influenza vaccine programs and look forward to future progress from our pipeline candidates," said Stanley C. Erck, President and Chief Executive Officer of Novavax. "In addition to the progress on our core product candidates, last quarter highlighted Novavax's capabilities in responding to emerging diseases. We took the initiative to rapidly develop and validate vaccine candidates for both H7N9 and MERS, demonstrating our ability to serve the needs of the global healthcare community through timely delivery of viable vaccine candidates for such emerging threats. We plan to review all of our programs at our upcoming analyst webcast, scheduled for September 24, 2013, and will provide details about this webcast over the next few weeks."

     

    Financial Results for the Three and Six Months Ended June 30, 2013

     

    The company reported a net loss of $12.6 million, or $0.08 per share, for the second quarter of 2013, compared to a net loss of $5.9 million, or $0.05 per share, for the second quarter of 2012. For the six months ended June 30, 2013, the net loss was $22.6 million, or $0.15 per share, compared to a net loss of $13.3 million, or $0.11 per share, for the same period in 2012.

     

    Novavax had revenue in the second quarter of 2013 of $3.5 million as compared to $7.1 million for the same period in 2012. The decrease in revenue was primarily a result of a higher level of BARDA-funded clinical trial activity associated with the company's seasonal and pandemic influenza programs in the three months ended June 30, 2012, as compared to the corresponding period in 2013 when no similar clinical trials were initiated. In conjunction with the decrease in revenue, the cost of revenue was $1.6 million in the second quarter of 2013 as compared to $5.1 million for the same period in 2012. This decreased was primarily related to lower levels of activity associated with the company's previously mentioned influenza clinical trials.

     

    Research and development expenses increased to $10.8 million in the second quarter of 2013, compared to $5.4 million for the same period in 2012, primarily a result of increased costs relating to the initiation of the company's RSV and pandemic (H7N9) influenza clinical trials and higher employee-related costs. General and administrative expenses increased to $4.0 million in the second quarter of 2013 as compared to $2.5 million for the same period in 2012, resulting primarily from higher professional fees associated with the company's tender offer of Isconova.

     

    As of June 30, 2013, the company had $40.6 million in cash and cash equivalents and investments compared to $50.3 million as of December 31, 2012. Net cash used in operating activities for the six months of 2013 was $18.2 million compared to $10.3 million for the same period in 2012. The increase in cash usage from the prior year was primarily due to higher research and development spending, including the company's RSV and pandemic (H7N9) influenza clinical trials, as well as increased employee-related costs and increased general and administrative expenses relating to the Isconova public tender offer.

     

    Conference Call

     

    Novavax management will host its quarterly conference call today at 8:30 a.m. EDT. The dial-in number for the conference call is 1 (877) 212-6076 (U.S. or Canada) or 1 (707) 287-9331 (international). A webcast of the conference call can also be accessed via a link on the home page of the Novavax website (novavax.com) or through the "Investor Info"/"Events" tab on the Novavax website.

     

    A replay of the conference call will be available from 11:30 am on August 8, 2013 until midnight September 27, 2013. To access the replay by telephone, dial 1 (855) 859-2056 (domestic) or 1 (404) 537-3406 (international) and use passcode 26944315. The replay will also be available as a webcast and can be found on the "Investor Info"/"Events" on the Novavax website.
    9 Aug 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Thanks DG. Reading between the lines and around the edges, it would seem to me that they will be on the hunt for more funding around February or March next year.
    9 Aug 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    TB: That needs to be viewed with a little caution. The PATH funding for in-vitro immunization of newborns via vaccination of the mother against RSV has come through twice now, with good results reported on the trials thus far.

     

    It's conceivable that more funding from there, or even the various governments, could come because RSV is such a *huge* problem for children under ... 2 or 3(?) and the elderly.

     

    RSV will be huge as there's no other vaccination available and the current treatment has some nasty side-effects in a small portion of the recipients, like causing the virus to, in some cases, mutate slightly and begin congestion in the lungs problems and get immunity from the body's defenses.

     

    It's a world-wide market.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Aug 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    I expect they may get some more BARDA money as they meet the goals.
    Also, I read an article (don't remember what publication but it might have been BBC or FT coverage) that stated NVAX may attempt to produce the new bird virus. I'll see if I can find the article.
    9 Aug 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    O.G.: They already produced H7N9. I think I've got the PR bookmarked if you need it.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Aug 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    From the elephant I posted above. Sorry it was such a big chunk but I could not link it since it was behind my password.

     

    "In addition to the progress on our core product candidates, last quarter highlighted Novavax's capabilities in responding to emerging diseases. We took the initiative to rapidly develop and validate vaccine candidates for both H7N9 and MERS, demonstrating our ability to serve the needs of the global healthcare community through timely delivery of viable vaccine candidates for such emerging threats.
    9 Aug 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    HTL- I think this is different. I am not talking about them producing vaccines,I read they were asked to produce synthetic viruses or they are thinking about getting into that,I am not quite sure. My memory is not serving me well today.
    I found an article on it,but not the one that mentioned NVAX specifically. I do not want to promote wrong information. But, here is an article on producing synthetic vaccines. Are we talking about the same thing, HTL? I'm not sure! I think the H7N9 virus was given to them so they could develop a vaccine, but the virus was not engineered by them. Here's the link, tell me what you think!
    http://bit.ly/15UUeCm
    9 Aug 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    O.G. I didn't read your OP carefully enough - I jumped right to thinking of making a vaccine based on the provided samples.

     

    Apologies!

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Just started reading your link - looks interesting. Thanks!
    9 Aug 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    HTL- I can't find a link to NVAX directly. There are definitely synthetic viruses being made, but NVAX doesn't appear to be making them.

     

    I am sorry for the confusion. My bad!
    9 Aug 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    OG: I recall reading a few days ago that the US is considering creating new strains of bird flu. Recall there was a squabble about how to fund the study.
    9 Aug 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    OG, I remember the NVAX article you mentioned. They did map or recreate the virus in something like 2 weeks with some new tech they have (sorta like a dna chain.)

     

    I own a small starter position and look to buy more. I think they are a take out candidate, or as HTL pointed out about RSV is a hit.

     

    If NVAX hits on any one of these, their stock should perform similar to VRTX.
    9 Aug 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    Yes, and some people are pointing fingers saying the government is making viruses so they can kill people and creating the potential for pandemics where no threats exist. There are a lot of conspiracy theorists on that one
    . But Maya, do you remember if NVAX was mentioned directly as a party to manufacturing synthetic flu? It's driving me crazy. Did I dream it up? I just can't find it.
    9 Aug 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    I seem to recall that Novavax was asked to study some forms of viruses, rather than creating them?

     

    Memory is sketchy on that one.
    9 Aug 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    I found the link. It is Novartis, not NVAX, that is making synthetic bird flu.
    Here is the article. Now I can go swimming and take the rest of the afternoon off! I'm not crazy, just wrong!!!
    http://bit.ly/13penNO
    9 Aug 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    O.G.: "I'm not crazy, just wrong!

     

    Unless you're part two about part one. :-)) In which case you're both part one and part two.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Aug 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    That's right, just ask my husband!
    9 Aug 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Are you saying we cant ask you cuz your crazy and might be wrong. I am having trouble following the different parts, maybe I am crazy or could I too be wrong. Time for a TGIF beer I think.

     

    Have a nice weekend all.
    9 Aug 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    I was crazy once- Ask my wife-
    12 Aug 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Novartis Hit by Scandal Over Japanese Drug Studies

     

    Novartis (NVS) faces a mounting problem in Japan where researchers have retracted studies that touted the benefits of the company's most popular medicine Diovan. The Novartis finding comes amid growing scrutiny world-wide of the veracity of medical research. Last year, 415 articles in scientific journals were retracted, up from 46 in 2002, according to Thomson Reuters Web of Science, an index of peer-reviewed journals world-wide.
    ---
    To see the article, copy the title and Google it. That will let you see the full article.
    11 Aug 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like a Global Warming pandemic to me.
    4 Sep 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Vical Incorporated (VICL) announced today that the company will report top-line results from the Phase 3 Allovectin® Immunotherapy for Metastatic Melanoma trial before the opening of trading on Monday, August 12, and conduct a conference call and webcast to discuss the results at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Monday.
    ---
    If successful, expect a pop, if not....
    11 Aug 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Vical (VICL) today announced top-line results from a Phase 3 trial of Allovectin. The 390-subject trial FAILED to demonstrate a statistically significant improvement vs. first-line chemotherapy. http://tinyurl.com/mj8...
    12 Aug 2013, 06:36 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    Seems to be many failures in CA treatment. I'm going to avoid this sector as i don't think we are nearly close to a cure or survival rates that are meaningful.
    12 Aug 2013, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I expect an overshoot on (VICL) selling this morning. The company still has a good pipeline. I figured the stock was worth $3 even with the failure, so I will be buying this morning at prices below $1.5. The company has a good amount of cash on hand, so I don't expect any offerings for the remainder of this year.
    12 Aug 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    >FPA-

     

    Re: (VICL)

     

    I agree with your thesis and am also bottom fishing with a large (for me) order in the $1.45 range.

     

    I'm glad that there is finally some serious interest in (AHRO) as well. Haven't seen any recent news though.
    12 Aug 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    Re: (VICL)

     

    Hit $1.37- now trading at $1.51 10:15 EDST

     

    16+ Million shares
    12 Aug 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Holy cow! VICL down over 60% in pre market trading. Good luck FPA!
    12 Aug 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    More Holy cow-ness. VICL's ave. daily volume is 1.06M shares. 30 minutes into trading and VICL has already pushed north of 13.3M shares traded. A LOT of churning going on right around being down 60% prior to the open.

     

    Tempted to scoop up some shares, because the price hasn't dipped much (more) after the open.
    12 Aug 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    With the amount of rain this year seems we might be seeing a lot more Mosquito born viruses popping up. I don't even remember the EEE (Eastern Equine Encephalitis) being such a concern in the past. Next up Dengue and west Nile?

     

    EEE apparently is something to be very concerned with.

     

    Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE) is spread to horses and humans by infected mosquitoes. It is among the most serious of a group of mosquito-borne arboviruses that can affect the central nervous system and cause severe complications and even death. EEE is found in North America, Central and South America, and the Caribbean. It has a complex life cycle involving birds and a specific type of mosquitoes including several Culex species and Culiseta melanura. These mosquitoes feed on infected birds and become carriers of the disease and then feed on humans, horses and other mammals. Symptoms may range from none at all to a mild flu-like illness with fever, headache, and sore throat. More serious infections of the central nervous system lead to a sudden fever and severe headache followed quickly by seizures and coma. About half of these patients die from the disease. Of those who survive, many suffer permanent brain damage and require lifetime institutional care. There is no specific treatment. A vaccine is available for horses, but not humans.

     

    PLEASE NOTE: "About half of these patients die from the disease. Of those who survive, many suffer permanent brain damage and require lifetime institutional care."

     

    5 cases in the USA already and alerts are being posted on the global incident map.

     

    In the northeast:

     

    http://bit.ly/169ZTqK

     

    Link to global incident map.

     

    http://bit.ly/tb0kz2
    12 Aug 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    DG,

     

    Please note, your first link is to a report of EEE found in a horse in MA, not humans. The map indicates further reports in the northeast, but also appears to be "found in mosquitoes" or horses or found to be "present" (?birds), not yet any reported human cases in the northeast, as best I can tell.

     

    Yes, it is a deadly disease, but it remains quite rare and public health measures effective against it when detected (mosquito spraying, just like for West Nile in recent years). Actual cases of human deaths from EEE remain vanishingly rare in North America.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/15v8TR6

     

    EEE has NOT been reported as a "current outbreak:"
    http://1.usa.gov/15v8TRa
    12 Aug 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    theres already a Dengue outbreak in South America

     

    sorry don't have time to get link, article was out within the last week
    12 Aug 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin I was only posting some of the findings but the link to all the other articles is where I got a bit more concerned about the disease. I have zillions of Mosquitos this year in every ditch that holds any water. Its crazy. I have been placing out floating disks that kill them. (http://amzn.to/18pVePf) I expect your knowledge on this is much better than mine but there seems to be an over abundance of caution over this situation that appears to be developing. Is this normal?

     

    3 human cases so far.

     

    http://bit.ly/18pVePh

     

    They are killing the horses, to prevent it spreading to humans?

     

    http://bit.ly/18pVf5N

     

    First time Vermont ever detected the disease was last year and two folks got it and died. They have found it again this year.

     

    http://bit.ly/18pVePj
    12 Aug 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    LT its in Honduras. Posted it on the end of world party blog. As it gets warmer expect it to move north to us.
    12 Aug 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Aug. 12, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Attorney Advertising--Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC is investigating potential claims on behalf of purchasers of the securities of Vical Incorporated ("Vical" or the "Company") (VICL). The investigation focuses on whether the Company and its executives violated federal securities laws.
    ---
    Not sure what this is about...
    12 Aug 2013, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Typical "ambulance chaser" cadre showing up to get folks excited about getting big money from purported missteps (and "violations") while the majority of the money goes to the lawyers.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Aug 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ahhh... thanks HT.
    12 Aug 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    Didn't the same firm also advertise for Linn Energy? Or was that -
    Findum, Ketchum and Cheatum?

     

    VICL over 25 Million shares at 13:45 EDST, trading @ $1.56.
    12 Aug 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    WT that's hilarious.
    12 Aug 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    Re: Findum, Ketchum and Cheatum-

     

    there is their wholly owned subsidiary-

     

    Dewey, Cheatum and Howe

     

    WT
    12 Aug 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    WWT: Another Click and Clack fan?

     

    HardToLove
    13 Aug 2013, 05:05 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    NO!!! I was referring to the 25 million shares by 13:45. LOL
    13 Aug 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    >DG-

     

    Ahhh. Still good names for law firms!

     

    Re: (VICL) I didn't note what the total for the day was- Had to be around 30 Mil?

     

    Around 3.4 Million at 11:00 EDST today- trading around $1.59.
    13 Aug 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 30,913,700
    13 Aug 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Excellent names for law firms and I was joking of course about the 25 million shares.
    13 Aug 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    Well, since no one seems to have got it, Click & Clack the Tappet Brothers were the names of a couple brothers that had an auto show on NPR and their law firm was Dewey, Cheatum and Howe.

     

    They were hilarious.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Aug 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I got it. Tom and Ray Magliozzi, both MIT grads, who loved to talk about cars on Car Talk radio show on NPR since 1987.

     

    They were my favorite show on NPR. Sad that they quit producing new episodes last year and only have reruns now, but they still make you chuckle.

     

    http://bit.ly/14JSLCe

     

    Catch the reruns as podcasts on http://www.cartalk.com
    13 Aug 2013, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    They also have a syndicated weekly Q&A in the papers, usually on Saturday if memory serves.

     

    It is far better entertainment than reading political discussions and logic- ha, ha, ha.
    13 Aug 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    30,913,700 for (VICL) WOW! For one low key stock-

     

    When I was working as a life insurance- mutual fund agent for Oppenheimer in the mid 1960s, should the DJ, the entire Dow Jones market exced 10 million shares in one day the news was in the WSJ headline in 60pt.
    13 Aug 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    You're old!
    13 Aug 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    " You're old!"

     

    Better than the alternative!

     

    Actually I was twelve at the time- A prodigy you see.
    13 Aug 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    I was going to say ancient but then I would assume he would have called me a relic. I'll shut up now lest I attract to much attention to myself. LOL
    13 Aug 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    All this time I thought it was Dewe, Takum and How! Seven savage....well that's enough before I get in trouble.
    4 Sep 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    VICL was downgraded by Credit Suisse, fyi.
    13 Aug 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi OG
    And justifiably downgraded...

     

    Here is my reasoning on my (VICL) play...

     

    I pointed out in a previous post, the success of (VICL) is not married to the success of the Allovectin trial as investors should take note of the current revenue stream associated with their TransVax 'Astellas' collaboration, and the promising results and potential revenue stream associated with CyMVectin. Both of the latter two products deal with CMV.

     

    The current stock price is $1.62. The company has $64M or so in cash on-hand with zero debt. That's .74 per share in cash. So nearly half of its current share valuation is covered by cash on-hand. Its current Enterprise Value is about $246M while its Market Cap is $140.5M.

     

    Looking at the Enterprise Value as the theoretical takeover price, and dividing by the number of outstanding shares we get an estimate of the takeover share price $246M / $86.7M = $2.84 per share.

     

    The current price is $1.62, so I estimate that the current price is 57% ((1.62 / 2.84) X 100) of the companies takeover share price. This is in close proximity to my charting based valuation target of $2 to $2.50 per share.

     

    So my interpretation is that the stock is currently under-valued. The next question is risk. To me the biggest future risk is that of an offering. But they have $64M of cash with no debt and a burn rate of about $8M per quarter. So they will not need to raise cash with an offering through 2014.

     

    That leaves the risk with the TransVax trial. Yes, that risk is there, but they have already convinced 'Astellas' to partner with them on the trial, and 'Astellas' has put up tens of millions of dollars in that collaboration along with an exclusive worldwide license agreement. I figure 'Astellas' knows more than me about the TransVax risk, so I see a low risk of a TransVax trial failure, and if it does fail, I am in good company.

     

    As a result, I re-entered the stock at $1.5 and am up 8% since yesterday. My conservative target is $2, so I see a 33% back-of-the-envelope upside. So this is my reasoning as to why (VICL) is a buy at this time.

     

    PS: Credit Suisse analyst L. Kalowski downgraded Vical to Neutral, and lowered the price target to $2.00. http://tinyurl.com/kec...

     

    So my back-of-the-envelope target is the same as Credit Suisse's analyst. Woo Woo!
    13 Aug 2013, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (VICL) tanked to 1.51 today. I bought at 1.5. We shall see if that is the stable bottom. If not, back to the drawing board.
    14 Aug 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    "VICL was downgraded by Credit Suisse, fyi. "

     

    ARGHHH!
    13 Aug 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    I hate this about bio-tech:

     

    NVAX registers 4 million shares @ $2.30
    http://bit.ly/1a2KnyO
    Filed on: August 13, 2013
    Copyright 2013, US Securities and Exchange Commission News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation
    13 Aug 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    My read of that filing, LT, is that the 4 million are authorized for the Employee Incentive Plan, meaning it will be restricted grants and options to employees, not sold directly into the open market.

     

    As the current OS is listed as 152M shares, another 4M eventually in the hands of the folks who are running the company is not a bad thing, in my eyes. It aligns their interests with ours as stockholders.

     

    Did I read the filing wrong?
    13 Aug 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    probably not....I just glanced at it. my bad,

     

    Capital raises have been tough on my penny stock portfolio
    13 Aug 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    As a fellow Axionista, I hear ya!
    13 Aug 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Its been really bad on the Axionistas. I am sorry but I bailed at $0.2605 and bought CPST at $0.9375 which is doing very well.
    13 Aug 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    I bailed on AXPW too, was watching CPST but missed it. That was a nice trade dg. Any of you guys watching or trading ZBB?

     

    Many biotech's should be doing better, look at BCRX..they traded $1.00 +/- then soared to $6 on news but not that big of news.

     

    The other bio's I watch are just dead and drifting lower. A good capital raise will cut them in half. ZGNX, NVAX, etc.
    13 Aug 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Been watching ZBB for a year and a half, but haven't had the BB's yet to take the plunge.
    13 Aug 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin-

     

    Re: (ZBB)-

     

    I find energy companies interesting- as in (CPST) and (AXPW)

     

    I took a look through ZBB's cash flo and balance sheet info and note a few things-

     

    Their losses are increasing, their sales are decreasing and their salaries seem to be out of line with their financial position. Finally, R&D and administrative expense are about 4X their gross income. They got $17+ million from issuing stock over the last year and their return on equity is a negative 215%.

     

    Marathon Capital's last infusion was in June of 2012 for $1.2 Mil. so I guess that except for insider purchases the stock has been moving on the open market. Except for a spike to $.45 in April the stock has moved from $.35 a year ago to $.21 currently, with a steady decline from the April spike. I don't see Marathon or any others in the mix recently.

     

    Kind of hard for me to see an opportunity with this one.

     

    WT
    14 Aug 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    WT,

     

    ZBB has compelling technology, just like AXPW, so I am keeping my eye on it and waiting for compelling news about sales into the grid storage markets, as they evolve.
    14 Aug 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    >SM-

     

    Re: ZBB
    Sounds interesting- I will also put it on the watch list.
    Thanks-

     

    WT
    14 Aug 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    Here's an article on NVAX re: Sept 24 analyst day. Mark it on your calendar.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    13 Aug 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    (MNKD)

     

    Mannkind's inhaled insulin beats both oral therapy and injected insulin in phase III trials.

     

    >>
    AFREZZA-Gen2, compared to insulin aspart, showed:

     

    Non-inferior decreases in A1c levels;
    Significantly less hypoglycemia;
    Significant decreases in fasting blood glucose levels; and
    Significant weight advantage.
    <<

     

    http://bit.ly/14xTsY9

     

    This will revolutionize diabetes treatment.
    14 Aug 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Do you think they will dilute?
    14 Aug 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Not really my area of expertise, but George Rho thinks we are fundamentally in very good shape.

     

    His options strategy: http://bit.ly/14LbiLE

     

    "A recent $160 million deal with Deerfield Management and cash forthcoming from the conversion of warrants into stock later this year, along with the credit line with Alfred Mann, give the company considerable financial flexibility and leverage, vis-à-vis potential marketing partners or prospective acquirers or going it alone."
    14 Aug 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Doc! I am looking to open a position...
    14 Aug 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    You're welcome.

     

    This is one of those companies I have been excited about in the past year. Elegant science, good businessman in Dr. Mann. The story is unfolding like clockwork. These Phase III results are better than I had hoped for!
    14 Aug 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the heads up, i opened a started position today and I agree upon approval it is a disruptive treatment & game changer.
    14 Aug 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    Analysts weigh in on MannKind following Afrezza results
    Calls and commentary are coming in now regarding the Afrezza Affinity trial results released this morning by MannKind (MNKD +11.5%).
    "We assume that the FDA should approve Afrezza the third time around," Cowen's Simos Simeonidis says, adding that the focus has now shifted to whether the company can find a partner.
    On that note, Griffin Securities' Kieth Markey thinks "a deal could be struck fairly quickly, as the regulatory risk has virtually dissipated." Markey sees FDA approval in April 2014.
    JMP downgrades the shares to Market Perform from Market Outperform perhaps because the most obvious near-term catalyst is passed.
    14 Aug 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    >LT-

     

    Re:(MNKD)

     

    I think you meant JPM?

     

    "JMP downgrades the shares to Market Perform from Market Outperform perhaps because the most obvious near-term catalyst is passed. "

     

    Or, maybe they want some for their own coffers at a lower price?

     

    Nah- That would be disingenuous!

     

    WT
    14 Aug 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    I think JPM did this a bit quick. They knew this news was coming and already had the downgrade written and their people sold heavy into the news. Either way MNKD sold off $1 off the highs and should have held them.
    I agree with SM that this is a big deal as in disruptive tech that changes the way we treat diabetes.

     

    I would think MNKD is a takeover candidate anytime now. If not, then after approval for sure.
    I have to do more research on a price point, but IMO, first impression is that it's worth a multiple x of todays price.
    14 Aug 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    MNKD already getting some articles - nothing new here but nice simple read on history

     

    http://buswk.co/16Rm1Vo
    15 Aug 2013, 05:23 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    Read MNKD here....man it's negative and let's the air out of your sails
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    15 Aug 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    I've put Matusow on my personal Ignore List.

     

    He writes articles to push the price around where he wants it then gets in or out. Or helps his friends and family get in or out.
    15 Aug 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    Big pharma got busted here by whistle blower and now China following suit
    http://buswk.co/16Rm1Vo
    15 Aug 2013, 05:32 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    FINALLY !

     

    Aug 15 (Reuters) - Novavax Inc :
    * Lazard raises target price to $11 from $4; rating buy
    For a summary of rating and price target changes on U.S. companies:
    Reuters Eikon users, click on
    Reuters 3000Xtra users, double-click
    Reuters Station users, click .1568
    15 Aug 2013, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    Pretty extensive preview on (CYTK) trials-

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    WT
    15 Aug 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Rats! I went in too early on (VICL). I sold part of it today and will repurchase when it bottoms... I still think its undervaued.
    15 Aug 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Double rats I bought into MNKD yesterday.

     

    http://on.mktw.net/14f...
    15 Aug 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    see my 2 posts above, i bought some yesterday too.
    15 Aug 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Potential old timers (alzheimers) cure and the company that may produce the medicine. Company name is Annexon but it has very little info on it.

     

    http://annexon.biz

     

    article link below.

     

    http://fxn.ws/14NNnhd
    15 Aug 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    VALENCIA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- MannKind Corporation (Nasdaq: MNKD) today announced that, pursuant to a Facility Agreement (the "Facility Agreement") dated July 1, 2013 between Deerfield Private Design Fund II, L.P. and Deerfield Private Design International II, L.P. (collectively, "Deerfield") and MannKind, the conditions that obligate Deerfield to purchase the second $40 million tranche of 9.75% senior secured convertible notes (the "Convertible Notes") have now been satisfied. The second tranche of Convertible Notes was subject to the achievement of Phase 3 data from studies 171 and 175 that met the primary efficacy endpoints of these studies and did not show any adverse safety issue that would reasonably be expected to prevent approval of AFREZZA. The Facility Agreement provides that Deerfield is obligated to purchase up to four equal tranches of Convertible Notes for total gross proceeds of up to $160 million. The closing of the second tranche is expected to occur no later than September 6, 2013.
    About MannKind Corporation
    16 Aug 2013, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    LT I did not actually like that comment but I did up click it. Frankly I hated it, wished it wasn't so!!!
    16 Aug 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Tripple Rats!!!! Dilution via the ole sneaky convertible notes trick....aaauuuugggggh... Maybe two more obligations to go!!!....aaaaaaaahhhhh... $hit!!!
    16 Aug 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It is a dilution, but the dilution is based on the completion of a successful milestone :)
    16 Aug 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Rattie, That kinda sounds like saying it is a screwing but only based upon the completion of dinner a movie and a really good bottle of wine :-o
    16 Aug 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    DG-

     

    Well after all, maybe it will be worth the price- Just make sure you get a lot of good food and wine as well.
    16 Aug 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    I am not going any where because I believe this will be a big winner. It just seems that now I have to wait longer than I expected to get a positive return. Long sigh.......seems about par any more.
    16 Aug 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    dg, I know that statement all too well, I may double down when the smoke settles. I saved a bit of dry powder.
    16 Aug 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    Rattie-
    I am with that thought also-

     

    Added some after hours, unfortunately before it dropped to $5.77.

     

    WT
    16 Aug 2013, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    We should have bought NVAX last week instead of MNKD

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    18 Aug 2013, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    RSV looks to be a block buster, big pharma will probably want this company.
    Look at the investors already, this is what I like to see vs. no fund investors in AXPW.
    18 Aug 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » At the current time it also looks like (NVAX) is flush with cash. They have a burn rate of about 9M per quarter but have around 40M on-hand.
    18 Aug 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    >FPA-

     

    Thanks for your comment on their cash burn.
    I've been a holder of (NVAX) for a while with some healthy profit- I was getting just a little antsy-

     

    WT
    18 Aug 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The way I look at it WT, they are calling together a group of high-end analysts in September. You don't need to know anything about the stock to interpret that as a 'tell'. They have to have a significant reason to call in those analysts. If they call those guys in and try to tap dance around with a straw hat and a sock puppet show there will be hell to pay. On top of that we have their less than stellar quarterly followed by a rapid rebound. My whiskers are twitching... Something is up.. I am adding to my position...
    19 Aug 2013, 07:15 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, FPA!

     

    I like it!
    19 Aug 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    another good write up on MNKD
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    19 Aug 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Both (NVAX) and (MNKD) are good ones to accumulate on dips. Their catalysts are still down the road, and they both have excellent innovative products with a good patent moat.

     

    I have been holding MNKD since July 2012, and expect it to go much higher in time, as the Afrezza product gets to market. NVAX I have been holding since May, and agree that now is a time to pick up some more.

     

    Stay on the roller coaster, the ride ain't over yet!
    19 Aug 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    >LT-

     

    Re:(MKND)

     

    Thanks for the George Rho article-

     

    Rho provides a compelling argument for taking a piece of the pie right now.

     

    I'm in-

     

    WT
    19 Aug 2013, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    Read the last line:

     

    Novavax gains on continued optimism over its RSV vaccine
    Novavax (NVAX +4.9%) gains on renewed optimism that the company may announce positive news on its Respiratory Syncytial Virus Fusion Vaccine at its annual Analyst Day on September 24.Last week Lazard upped its price target on the shares to $11, saying the vaccine was "one of the more under-appreciated assets in the industry."The firm thinks NVAX's drug could be more effective than its competitor, Synagis.Additionally, Italian veterinary authorities have reported an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza at a commercial poultry farm in Emilia-Romagna, an administrative region in Northern Italy.
    19 Aug 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    Shares of MannKind get a boost from an upbeat Seeking Alpha blog
    Shares of Mannkind (MNKD +10.2%) get a bounce this morning off a positive Seeking Alpha blog noting that despite the voracity of the selloff over the past two days - a 33% discount to the 52-week high set just two days earlier - the company is well positioned for long-term growth.SA contributor George Rho says most of the noise currently driving the stock's volatility is being churned up by short sellers and "every Tom, Dick, and Harry - George, too" self-ordained internet pundit with a platform that allows them to reach a worldwide audience.Rho says management is correct in focusing its attention on the important business of preparing the NDA for Afrezza and securing the optimum marketing partner, rather than responding to what he considers ridiculous comments and allegations emanating from various corners.His take: Top line results reported by MNKD last Wednesday were solid, and he's reassured by Deerfield's decision to release the second tranche of $40M, which essentially validates that assessment.
    19 Aug 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Can A Usable H7N9 Vaccine Be Made?

     

    (GSK) working on it in Canada, to be tested in the states.

     

    Sinovac (SVA) working on it.

     

    NVAX.

     

    <<
    "All the avian viruses are tough to generate antibody to," says Treanor, head of infectious diseases at the University of Rochester (N.Y.) Medical Center.

     

    "So I would imagine that a standard, unadjuvanted H7 vaccine will probably not be very immunogenic, just like the H5(N1 vaccine) wasn't. But I don't think there's anything special about H7 that makes it different from anything else. There might be — but at the moment I don't think there's real data that supports that concept."

     

    Novavax, a company which doesn't currently produce a licensed seasonal flu vaccine in the U.S., was the first to complete production of its H7N9 trial vaccine, Robinson says, and the company started its clinical trial in July.

     

    Sanofi Pasteur, Novartis and MedImmune have also made their vaccine batches and testing of their products will begin soon, Robinson says.

     

    The four companies still to make H7N9 vaccine are GSK, Australian manufacturer CSL, Protein Sciences and Vaccinate, which also does not have a licensed seasonal flu product yet in the United States.

     

    The MedImmune vaccine contains live virus, the only one of the eight to do so. That presents special challenges for testing it, says Treanor, who will do part of the work on the MedImmune vaccine.
    >>
    19 Aug 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Oops. Forgot the link. Or lost it in editing/corrections.

     

    http://bit.ly/14Qc1XH
    19 Aug 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Camels may be source of MERS virus transmission

     

    http://bit.ly/19EJ4qn

     

    http://usat.ly/19EJ4qr
    19 Aug 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Camels like to spit, add that to the equation. Yuk!!
    20 Aug 2013, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    And Camels have fleas and fleas like to jump on people! Yuk! Yuk!
    20 Aug 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    Re: (MDXG)

     

    Stock is up 7-1/2 % @ 13:00 EDST.

     

    I don't know why, but I'm happy- Anyone have a clue?
    20 Aug 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Market Currents this AM:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    A mention today in Napodano's article:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    20 Aug 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Doc-
    Do you think this meaningful news? Or has it been out in other venues?

     

    WT
    20 Aug 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Useful buzz.

     

    I am in it for a long-term investment, as I agree with Iggy's views as discussed last month, above. If the buzz brings more eyes to this little gem, it will be a roller coaster with an uphill slant as more meaningful scientific findings emerge over time.
    20 Aug 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Unexplained flash crash this afternoon for (MDXG) .

     

    I happened to be at my screen and watching when it started, and for a lark put in a limit order around $4. It filled at $2.00, then bounced back up. Doubled my position and now only down 2.4%, despite a -36% day.

     

    Pure luck. Still scratching my head about how I managed this.
    4 Sep 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Here is why it crashed:

     

    http://bit.ly/1eg5CNA

     

    Company's explanation: http://bit.ly/19jMevm

     

    And it is back to $4.30 in after hours trading.
    4 Sep 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Qatar now has a case of MERS

     

    http://aje.me/16wm9c5

     

    CDC's latest "emergency guidance" for health care providers:
    http://1.usa.gov/19Jqvl2
    21 Aug 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Emergence of H7N9 avian flu hints at broader threat

     

    http://bit.ly/19xDAKs
    21 Aug 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    This from China.

     

    http://bit.ly/14kiyye
    21 Aug 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    West Nile virus results in death in Attica, Greece.

     

    http://bit.ly/1d2ypHp
    21 Aug 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    BCRX was $1.00 about 60 days ago....this is what happens when the big boyz get their coffers full

     

    Wells Fargo initiates coverage on BioCryst Pharma (NASDAQ: BCRX) with a Outperform rating and $7-$9 price target.
    22 Aug 2013, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    Here's the full article:

     

    Wells Fargo starts BioCryst at Outperform on BCX 4161 potential
    "We believe BioCryst (BCRX) is undervalued primarily on the long-term promise of 4161 being a differentiated entrant in the large HAE market," Wells Fargo's Brian Abrahams says.Previously, Abrahams said BCX4161's "heavy pill burden could limit the threat" to ViroPharma's (VPHM) Cinryze.
    Phase 2 data is due next year and "if successful," Abrahams now thinks "the opportunity in the HAE space could be considerable."Peramivir is viewed as icing on the cake.BCRX is initiated at Outperform. Price target is $7-9. Shares are +3.9% premarke
    22 Aug 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    (CYTK)

     

    Cytokinetics Announces Publication of Results from Phase II Trials of Tirasemtiv in Patients with ALS
    Manuscripts Support the Design and Conduct of the Ongoing BENEFIT-ALS Trial

     

    http://bit.ly/12s3WeU

     

    The 8-K: http://bit.ly/14ZdzyA
    22 Aug 2013, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    China has a higher problem with drug resistant super bugs.

     

    http://bit.ly/1dw1eK2
    22 Aug 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    Inovio (INO) : I suggest that all read this long article and pay attention especially to their pipeline at the end.
    http://bit.ly/16SIXpf
    22 Aug 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    >LT-

     

    Thanks for that link on (INO)
    Wow-
    They have a bunch in the hopper!
    23 Aug 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    WT, IMO at INO's current price it may be that we take a small position soon.

     

    I too was shocked at the pipeline.
    23 Aug 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    >LT-

     

    Re:(INO) "take a small position soon"

     

    Done did that! Got some @ $1.68- Net.

     

    Thnx-

     

    WT
    23 Aug 2013, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Bat Out of Hell? Egyptian Tomb Bat May Harbor MERS Virus

     

    http://bit.ly/16nBlF0

     

    >>The researchers didn't isolate the virus itself, and the snippet was only 182 nucleotides long, so the bat may have been infected with another, very closely related virus. The researchers had hoped to find more and longer pieces of the viral genome, but an incident at U.S. customs may have thwarted their efforts. The samples, collected in October 2012, were frozen and transported to Columbia University on dry ice. But customs officers opened the shipment and its contents sat at room temperature for 2 days, thawing all the samples, Lipkin says. "That is probably why we didn't get more sequences out of this."<<

     

    Gotta love the turkeys at TSA and ICE.... Fingers everywhere they don't belong.
    23 Aug 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    Adam Feuhenstien hates MNKD

     

    http://bit.ly/1c3eWma
    24 Aug 2013, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    SM.. maybe you can add light to My question about the above comments in Adam's post is:

     

    1. What about the info MNKD didn't release?
    2. Is the quoted numbers cause for FDA denial or approval?
    3. Is $2.7 Billion too high?

     

    I thought based on the announcement of phase III trials it was a given to be approved, am I wrong ?
    24 Aug 2013, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, but I won't waste my time reading Feuerstein's garbage.

     

    Or for that matter, anything from Cramer or TheStreet.com.
    24 Aug 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Dengue fever hits Florida's Treasure Coast:

     

    http://on-msn.com/19UCXhQ
    26 Aug 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    Pinch me, am I awake? NVAX @ $3.04, I bought some at $3.00...several years ago.
    This is the closest I've been to break even in years.
    26 Aug 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » And they have cash! Wo Woo
    26 Aug 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Yes, and I've been adding a little here (in PA) and there (in Ohio) ;-) on the dips.
    26 Aug 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    IMO, NVAX is a winner....not so sure about MNKD. I own both. Gonna add to NVAX along.
    26 Aug 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    something is going on with BCRX....it's moved from $1 up to $6

     

    BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: BCRX) 16.0% HIGHER; BioCryst up as avian flu fears continuing to linger. Shares are also making a stronger move above $6 after reaching the level late last week.
    26 Aug 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    26 Aug 2013, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    The global incident map has a malfuntion (I hope) on the quake site. Can not see quakes in asia or else there have been NONE in the past 24 hours which would really scare the hell out of me if true.
    26 Aug 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    Short interview, some good ideas plus some comments on NVAX:
    http://bit.ly/17giVdO
    27 Aug 2013, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    og...did u see where Nektar has doubled over the past year ?

     

    IMO, one of these companies like them or Zogenix will break thru the addiction barrier on pain control. Most underestimate just how big this mkt is. as most pain meds are generic.

     

    Nektar is worth watching. IMO, ZGNX pain drug should have been approved with a strict warning label. But the panel rejected it and even the FDA stated that legally there was no basis other than the FDA was sending a message that no more addictive drugs will be approved.
    So, connecting the dots, the FDA may have known Nektar drug looked promising and so they are delaying a final decision waiting for further results. Of course, this could be my vivid imagination.
    27 Aug 2013, 05:04 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    LT assuming the FDA is truly interested in the health of people and not politically motivated or manipulated, that is not a vivid imagination.
    27 Aug 2013, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that link OG I liked that he liked NVAX, now if that would translate to price surge not just another short term spike.....fingers crossed for several weeks now.....getting cramps in fingers.
    27 Aug 2013, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    MannKind addresses critics with FAQ list
    Shares of MannKind (MNKD) rise 4.3% premarket apparently in response to an SEC filing (8-K) which announces the publication of a series of FAQs (regarding the Affinity trial results) and responses from the company.
    MNKD addresses the perceived discrepancy between the 0.4% change in HbA1c observed in Affinity 2 and the 0.5% change the original study design appeared to have called for the demonstrate superiority. There's nothing new here. The company says the 0.5% figure was related to the design of the trial and that the results were "extremely significant" — that's the same thing they said on the conference call.
    Also addressed is Summer Street's now infamous "unprecedented" comment regarding data on the MedTone inhaler. MNKD says the performance of MedTone and the Gen2 device is "comparable" and, without mentioning any names, calls Summer Street's analysis "alarmist" and "subjective."Investors can read the full FAQ list here.
    27 Aug 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    Water....if I could find the right investment, water would be my choice for grandchildren .
    http://yhoo.it/1dmgI4J
    28 Aug 2013, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    Re: Water-

     

    About fifteen years ago Time did an extensive analysis of water in the US. Speaking totally from memory (sometimes it works- selectively) there are three mega aquifers in the US- One was cited in the article you referenced, Florida being the second and the other is Albany County, NY.

     

    One statistic that has remained in the grey matter is that the Albany aquifer is capable of supplying all the water needs for everyone East of the Mississippi for an indefinite period. That's a bunch of H2O!

     

    How to capitalize on that info is beyond my capacity to grok- (thanks, Trip)

     

    The study also predicted the exhaustion of Florida's aquifer system and the collapse of whatever contained the water- Sinkholes anyone?

     

    WT
    28 Aug 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5078) | Send Message
     
    There has been sinkholes everywhere....could be ?
    28 Aug 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Our govt in their infinite wisdom will probably fill the Florida one with salt water to prevent the collapse.
    28 Aug 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2912) | Send Message
     
    >DG-

     

    Hey- The guy that thought that up is running for governor-
    28 Aug 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    He should set his sights higher since he is obviously stupid and incompetent enough to run for higher office.
    28 Aug 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    LT that has been a discussion on QC numerous times in the past few years. I think we all seem to agree on that.

     

    I believe as global warming continues, like all the other previous cycles in the past, we will see drought across large expanses of the earth. China will be a coastal city only once their rivers are gone from a lack of glaciers. Starvation will be wide spread across the globe except for those places with water and think of the cost of that water.

     

    Check out these graphs for a review of all the other warming periods in the "recent" past. Man can not be blamed. Carbon levels are approaching the level from the last event about 100,000 years ago.

     

    http://bit.ly/OMcDFA
    28 Aug 2013, 08:39 AM Reply