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  • Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 1 - 4 2009 - Part 1) 66 comments
    Oct 31, 2009 4:11 PM | about stocks: NVAX, SVA, VICL, CVM, BAX, BDX, CBM, APT, MMM, CLX, ECL, PURE, HOLX, DGX
    Explanation:

    I will post Swine-Flu and related articles under this heading.  The top of the instablog will contain my current months links  preceded with a one or two liner that explains the link.  A more complete summary of the link will be in the comments area.  At the bottom of the Instablog we have definition of terms, a summary of Swine Flu / vaccine investment plays, the 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map, Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu, and Memory Alpha which contains links to previous news concentrators and authors articles on the subject.

    I will be backing this up frequently as well.
    Last backup:  November 4, 2009.
    _____________________

    Update History:
    Added Overview of H1N1 / Categories of Vaccine Investment Plays Added Memory Alpha
    Added Link to Google's Swine Flu Infection Map
    Added Red Cross Tips for Dealing With The Flu
    Added definition of EUA and PREP act
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into two parts for October
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into three parts for October
    Added Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 1
    Expanded the list of stocks discussed in the tags
    _____________________
    November Links:

    (November 1) A quick overview concerning the issue of Mercury (specifically Thimerosal) in H1N1 vaccines. The second link tells us that if the presence of Thimerosal raises concerns, it may be possible to find Single-dose syringes of H1N1 vaccine which are thimerosal-free.  User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169364.php
    www.physorg.com/news172252051.html


    (November 3) - CEL-SCI (NYSEMKT:CVM) is working on a technology that effectively attacks a virus even after it attempts to mutate to another form.  A brief explanation is provided in this concentrator. More complete info is in the link - tripleback.
    biomedreports.com/articles/most-popular/...



    ___________________
    Some Definitions:

    Swine Flu - Novel H1N1 flu, popularly known as swine flu, is a respiratory infection caused by an influenza virus first recognized in spring 2009. The new virus, which is officially called swine influenza A (H1N1), contains genetic material from human, swine and avian flu viruses. (By Mayo Clinic staff)

    Pandemic - The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people.

    A World Health Organization phase 6 pandemic indicates that influenza due to the novel H1N1 swine flu is occurring in multiple countries around the world and that human infection is widespread. The classification does not reflect the severity of individual infections.

    Pulmonary Embolism - Occurs when a blood clot forms in an arm or leg breaks free and enters the lungs where it is too large to pass through the small vessels of the lungs and forms a blockage. This stops blood from flowing into an area of the lung, and the part of the lung dies because it does not receive oxygen.
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/153796.php

    What is an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?
    An EUA may be issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow either the use of an unapproved medical product or an unapproved use of an approved medical product during certain types of emergencies with specified agents.

    What is the PREP Act?
    The PREP Act authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (“Secretary”) to issue a declaration (“PREP Act declaration”) that provides immunity from tort liability (except for willfull misconduct) for claims of loss caused, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats and conditions determined by the Secretary to constitute a present, or credible risk of a future public health emergency to entities and individuals involved in the development, manufacture, testing, distribution, administration, and use of such countermeasures.

    The PREP Act also authorizes an emergency fund in the United States Treasury to provide compensation for injuries directly caused by administration or use of a countermeasure covered by the Secretary’s declaration. While no funds have been appropriated for this purpose, if funds are appropriated, compensation may then be available for medical benefits, lost wages and death benefits to individuals for specified injuries.
    cdc.gov/h1n1flu/eua/qa.htm

    Why Slow Production:
    One dose of swine flu vaccine for every two eggs, compared with two doses of seasonal flu vaccine per egg
    boston.com/business/healthcare/artic.../

    _____________________
    Brief Overview of Categories of H1N1/ Vaccine Investment Plays:

    I - Vaccines / Prevention
    1) Production Method / Capacity plays (NASDAQ:NVAX) (NASDAQ:VICL)
    2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play
    3) Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) (NYSE:BAX) (NYSE:BDX)
    4) Outsourced production plays
    5) Bio -Defence (OTC:MDCGF)
    6) Anti-Mutation Play (CVM)

    II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
    1) Dealing with severe lung infections (Fludase® (DAS181)) (NYSE:CBM) (NASDAQ:AEMD)
    III - Population Avoidance:
    1) masks/ disinfectants… Surgical masks are good enough (NYSEMKT:APT) (NYSE:MMM) (NYSE:CLX) (NYSE:ECL) (OTCQB:PURE)

    IV - Testing do you have it? (NASDAQ:GPRO)
    1) Test kits - (NYSE:DGX)

    V - Merger / Acquisitions
    _____________________

    2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map:
    The Link is from DoubleGuns
    flutracker.rhizalabs.com/
    _____________________
    Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu:

    IF YOU ARE ILL -
    * Stay in a room separate from common areas of the home and avoid contact with others as much as possible.

    * Stay at home for at least 24 hours after their fever is gone without using medicine to reduce the fever.

    * Get lots of rest and drink plenty of fluids.

    * Consider wearing a facemask, if available and tolerable, when sharing common spaces with household members. (ed - surgical masks ok).

    * Check with your healthcare provider about whether to take antiviral medication, or if fever persists, whether antibiotics are needed.

    WHEN CARING FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS THE FLU -
    *Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces that everyone touches.

    * Use detergent and very hot water to do dishes and wash clothes. It's okay to wash everyone's dishes and clothes together. Wash your hands after handling dirty laundry.

    * Designate only one adult as the caregiver. People at increased risk of severe illness from the flu should not be caregivers.

    * Although not mentioned by the Red Cross, the caregiver should probably ware a surgical mask as well when entering the sick room.

    * Deal with crisis situations calmly and confidently to give the best support to the person being cared for.
    _____________________

    MEMORY ALPHA:
    Identifies key writers and comment streams / instablog's that regularly discuss the subject area. The previous concentrators are bolded.

    This will be updated monthly. The latest articles are at the top of the list. The past summary concentrators are bolded so they stand out.

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (October 2009 - Part 3)
    Contains detail Swine Flu News and Comments from the second part of October (25 - 29)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    (October 28) Overview of presentations at the 7th Annual Vaccines: “All Things Considered”  conference to be held in Washington, D.C. on Nov 9-10, 2009. This conference promises to be the one-stop destination for valuable updates and exposure on all aspects of vaccine research, development, regulations, and policy.- Mayascribe
    gtcbio.com/userAgenda.aspx?id=166

    (October 26) - Good summary of recent events - optionsgirl
    Swine flu: Who's winning and losing in the H1N1 virus pandemic?
    dailyfinance.com/bloggers/melly-alazraki/

    (October 26) - The 8th annual Bio Investor Forum meets in San Francisco this week, October 28-29. Here is a link to a list of companies making presentations - User 283977
    investorforum.bio.org/opencms/bif/2009/c...

    October 25 - Swine Flu Concentrator (October Part 2)
    Contains detail Swine Flu News and Comments from the second part of October (20 - 24)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    (October 22)  Aethlon (AEMD) surfaced on our swine flu radar screen yesterday… Here is a new revenue stream identified by the company not related to Swine Flu. The stock is up 37% today - User 283977
    reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idU...

    Major development for NVAX that will significantly advance their timeline to production of commercial scale quantities of their H1N1 vaccine.
    (October 21) Novavax and Xcellerex Inc. announce collaboration to develop large-scale manufacturing process for 2009 H1N1 Influenza VLP Vaccine. - H.T. Love
    news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article...

    (October 21) Aethlon Medical (AEMD) Releases Medical Device Data Against The H1N1 Swine Flu Virus - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/168085.php

    (October 21) Novavax and Xcellerex Inc. announce collaboration to develop large-scale manufacturing process for 2009 H1N1 Influenza VLP Vaccine. - H.T. Love
    xcellerex.com/news-xcellerex.htm

    Expansion of SVA's H1N1 Vaccine into Mexico.
    (October 22) Sinovac Receives Certificate of Approval to Distribute PANFLU.1 (H1N1) in Mexico - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/168426.php

    October 21 - Swine Flu Concentrator (October Part 1)
    Contains detail Swine Flu News and Comments from the first part of October (1 - 20)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    (October 16) - FDA issues emergency use authorization [EUA] for commercial H1N1 flu test to Focus Diagnostics (DGX) - User 283977
    finance.yahoo.com/news/FDA-Issues-Anothe...

    Asthma Is Most Prevalent Underlying Illness Among Most Serious H1N1 Cases - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/167579.php

    (October 16, 2009) Red Cross Offers Important Tips For Caring For Someone With The Flu - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/167553.php

    (October 16) - Tamiflu-resistant new flu detected in patient with no record of Tamiflu use - doubleguns
    japantoday.com/category/national/view/ta...

    (October 15, 2009) - Tightening young visitor access to H1N1 patients in the hospital - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/167491.php

    October 9, 2009 Scientists Awaiting The Mutation Of H1N1 - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166825.php

    October 9 - Chinese Health Experts Look To Control Spread Of H1N1 In Country's Remote Regions - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166869.php

    October 9, 2009 - H1N1 flu taking off in U.S., officials say. But you can take H1N1 and seasonal shots at the same time. - User 283977
    reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE5...

    October 10, 2009 - Swine Flu Partys, Mix with the Infected, see if you can be Infected too - Freya
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166990.php

    October 11, 2009 - U.S. Department Of Health And Human Services And The Ad Council Launch National Campaign To Help Prevent The Spread Of The H1N1 Flu Virus. - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166935.php

    (October 12) -  A Mixed Bag for Traders and Investors in Healthcare - M. E. Garza
    India is rumoured to be one of the countries interested in Novavax's (NVAX) flu vaccine technology platform.
    seekingalpha.com/article/166076-a-mixed-...

    (October 13) Novavax (NVAX) Awarded NIH Grant for Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Vaccine Program - H. T. Love
    reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idU...

    (October 13) Sinovac Receives Certificate of Approval to Distribute Panflu (H5N1) Vaccine in Hong Kong. Its good for 5 years - User 283977
    prnewswire.com/news-releases/6407270...

    (October 14) CT Scans Show Patients With Severe Cases Of H1N1 Are At Risk For Developing Acute Pulmonary Emboli. Demonstrates superiority of CT scans over chest radiographs in identifying serious complications as a possible result of the H1N1 virus - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/167378.php

    (October 14) Rapid Vaccine Rollout Effective In Reducing Infection Rates, Shown By H1N1 Simulation Modeling. Underscores vital importance of the new rapid production methods (e.g., NVAX) (VICL) to manufacturer vaccines. - User283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/167324.php

    (October 5 - October 9) - Swine Flu fast forward - Freya
    * H1N1 vaccine does not substitute for Pneumonia shot. H1N1 infection dangerous for Pregnant Women. Getting H1N1 through blood banks
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/393700-freya/...

    (25 September 2009) Optimizing Influenza Vaccine Distributions
    To minimize deaths, infections, years  of life lost, contingent valuation and economic costs optimal vaccination policy is achieved by prioritization of schoolchildren and adults aged 30 to 39 years. - User283977
    sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/...

    September 20 - October 5) - Swine flu Updates - Freya
    * Freya was re-instated by SA - First discussion of hospital bed limited capacity issue. Freya identifies a new player in the VLP play - Medicago (OTC:MDCGF). Surgical masks are found to provide adequate protection against H1N1.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/393700-freya/...


    (September 16 - September 27) - med-stocks + 17 - one eye
    * List of med stocks. WHO up-dates vaccine does from 2 billion to 3 billion.
    seekingalpha.com/user/406793/instablog


    (September 12 - September 23) - Swine Flu-a scary little article - one eye.
    * optionsgirl reports $70.9 million contract for syringes and needles, sharps collectors and alcohol swabs to  Retractable Technologies (NYSEMKT:RVP), and another player in the Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) play (BDX). Quite a few companies mentioned here with respect to the Injection / Vaccine support services play. Discussion of NVAX's capital raising.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/406793-one-ey...


    (September 11 - September 16) - More from Swine Flu Country - one eye.
    * Mention that US vaccine supply may miss H1N1 peak and that cause of deaths from H1N1 re different from seasonal flu.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/406793-one-ey...


    (September 2 - September 25 Novavax's VLP Flu Vaccine Is A Game Changer - M.E. Garza - A great author for news on Biotech stocks.
    * Discusses the importance of new fast vaccine production methods
    seekingalpha.com/article/159622-novavax-...

    (September 8 - September 11) - SW Flu - one eye.
    *Review of Special Report in the 3 September 2009 issue of Nature, pages 20 - 21 on H1N1. Reports that public health-care system may be overwhelmed.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/406793-one-ey...


    (September 4 - September 8 ) - Swine Flu 2 - one eye.
    * Mayascribe's list of H1N1 stocks. User283977 reports revised categories of investment plays. Mayascribe adds (NYSEMKT:TPI) to the stock list.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/406793-one-ey...


    (August 29 - September 7) - The Swine Flu daily  - one eye -
    *Took over Freya's H1N1 news concentrator. Contains estimates of US GDP reductions - First categories of H1N1 investment plays - Mayascribe's list of H1N1 stocks
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/406793-one-ey...


    (August 27) - Swine Flu Part 3 - Freya
    *All valuable comments are lost
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/393700-freya/...


    (August 16) Swineflu updates part 2 - Freya
    *All valuable comments are lost
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/393700-freya/...


    (July 31, 2009) Swine Flu News-Daily- Freya
    * The person that started the H1N1 news research concentrator using the Instablog tool - Unfortunately, ALL of the valuable comments were erased because Freya was suspended by SA. However, her links to articles are still their.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/393700-freya/...

    ***


    Stocks: NVAX, SVA, VICL, CVM, BAX, BDX, CBM, APT, MMM, CLX, ECL, PURE, HOLX, DGX
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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (66)
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  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A new version for November.
    31 Oct 2009, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Social factors and the spread of diseases.
    (October 31) Officials Find Swine Flu Hits Minorities Harder

     

    Young people are more at risk of getting swine flu, and pregnant women, among others, have a higher chance of hospitalization from the new flu. Now public health officials are discovering that blacks and Latinos have a substantially higher risk of both.

     

    It is apparently not because of race or ethnicity, per se; it’s because of the social circumstances of many African-Americans and Hispanics. The new data are from Boston health authorities. Federal health officials are studying flu disparities on a national basis but haven’t released numbers yet.

     

    kosu.org/2009/08/offic.../
    31 Oct 2009, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    OG posted in the October after User closed it. Posting the link here. Discusses the Tamiflu not being so effective against H1N1.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2009, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Here is the link to the article about 6 pigs at the Minnesota State Fair having swine flu. Article also states the pigs @ the North Dakota State Fair are being tested. Given that swine flu is part avian flu, I now wonder if birds might contract this disease, too.

     

    www.postchronicle.com/...
    1 Nov 2009, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    OG! Oct closed. You posted this there!

     

    No worry - I'm watching your butt.

     

    Here's your post

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2009, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A quick overview concerning the issue of Mercury (specifically Thimerosal) in H1N1 vaccines. The second link tells us that if the presence of Thimerosal raises concerns, it may be possible to find Single-dose syringes of H1N1 vaccine which are thimerosal-free.

     

    (November 1) Study Examines Mercury In Vaccines
    The injectable, multi-dose H1N1 vaccine contains the mercury-based preservative thimerosol to reduce risks of bacterial contamination. The presence of thimerosol has raised concerns whether there are risks posed to children when the tiny amount of mercury contained in thimerosol is included in a vaccine.

     

    In a recent issue of the Journal of Pediatrics, researchers found that evaluated levels of mercury in the blood of the smallest children (prematurely born / low birth weight infants) after they received a dose of a childhood vaccine containing thimerosol were exceedingly low then fell rapidly to baseline levels by day ten after the vaccination following the vaccination." Previous studies were conducted on term newborns, and on 2-and 6-month old infants. In those studies, the researchers also found the mercury levels in the vaccinated children were very low and quickly returned to pre-vaccine levels, usually within three to seven days.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...

     

    (September 15, 2009) Does the H1N1 vaccine contain mercury?

     

    Thimerosal is a mercury-based preservative that has been phased out of childhood immunizations since 2001 due to concerns that the preservative MAY be linked to autism. But thimerosal (which is about half-mercury) will be found in multi-dose vials of the H1N1 vaccine.

     

    However, it may be possible to find doses that are thimerosal-free if you ask for single-dose shots. According to the CDC, "Single-dose syringes will be thimerosal-free, which will address concerns about this additive, especially regarding pediatric and pregnant vaccine recipients (inhaler sprayer vaccine products also will be thimerosal-free)."

     

    www.physorg.com/news17...
    1 Nov 2009, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    User: Between the Phillies in the World Series, mom tumbling, the crappy tempo weekend live-in help, (who I can barely work out what she's saying, who did not wake me up last night, who damn near refused to administer something a simple as eye drops, who doesn't even know how a pull out couch works, who...ahhh...grrr...), I forgot tell you the Halloween party I was going to go to was cancelled. Why? Two kids of the hosts contracted H1N1.

     

    You are delivering. Bears repeating. You are delivering. This Concentrator is fabulous.

     

    Near game time.
    1 Nov 2009, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9693) | Send Message
     
    "No worry - I'm watching your butt."

     

    Please don't get to descriptive, I am jealous.
    1 Nov 2009, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. I did it several times!

     

    NVAX is reporting Friday 11/6 after 8 am.
    2 Nov 2009, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Gang: So is my fav, (JAG). I believe they will give forth a favorable report. In fact, I believe no company on the planet will give forth a more favorable report, Nov. 5th.
    2 Nov 2009, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 2) FluGen Cell-Based, Egg-Free Method Produces Novel 2009 H1N1 Vaccine Virus

     

    FluGen Inc., announced that its proprietary CHO-cell-based production system has generated novel 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccine virus without the use of eggs during any step of production. CHO cells have been in common use in protein research, pharmaceutical discovery and pharmaceutical production for decades.

     

    The company expects its cell-based, egg-free method to readily transfer to full-scale vaccine production and is in the process of developing a highly-efficient, production-scale system that will be available in the near future.

     

    The egg-based process, by which all influenza vaccines are now produced, can take up to six months to deliver vaccine. The worldwide shortages of seasonal and novel 2009 H1N1 vaccine, exacerbated by this year's influenza pandemic, highlight the need for a quicker, cleaner, egg-free vaccine production method like FluGen's.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...

     

    I included this even though the company (FluGen ) is private, and very much in H1N1 vaccine start-up mode. The article once again points out the competitive pressure that new technology and innovations will be putting on the traditional chicken egg production method in the very near future. The old chicken egg production method is too slow and expensive relative to the new technologies.

     

    What are the large vaccine production companies, dependent on the current chicken egg production methods, going to do? Are they going to develop their own new technology and production systems? If so, it seems they would be spreading that news…. or are they planning to implement the new technology and production systems through acquisitions/ mergers?
    2 Nov 2009, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ACK! Your mom hit the deck? Did she get hurt?
    2 Nov 2009, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 2) Clorox 1Q Profit Rises 23% On H1N1-Boosted Sales; View Raised

     

    Clorox Co.'s (CLX) fiscal first-quarter earnings rose 23% amid increased sales of disinfecting products caused in part by H1N1 flu concerns and higher margins. The results exceeded estimates and Clorox raised its earnings forecast for the fiscal year by a nickel to a range of $4.05 to $4.20 a share and affirmed its sales outlook.

     

    Chairman and Chief Executive Don Knauss said that considering the recession and the impact of weaker foreign currencies, the results exceeded the company's expectations, thanks to strong sales of disinfectants being used in an effort to ward off the H1N1 flu virus.

     

    online.wsj.com/article...
    2 Nov 2009, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    NVAX:
    Novavax Reports Positive Data for its Trivalent Seasonal Influenza (VLP) Vaccine
    Candidate in a Second Phase II Study

     

    --- Results Presented at 47th Annual Meeting of the Infectious Diseases Society
    of America--- VLP vaccine induced robust hemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) antibody
    responses against all vaccine strains and a drifted strain--- First evidence of
    generation of functional anti-neuraminidase antibody by VLP vaccine

     

    ROCKVILLE, Md., Nov 02, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Novavax, Inc.
    (NVAX) a clinical-stage vaccine company, announced today that the Company made a
    poster presentation on the "Safety and Immunogenicity of a Recombinant Trivalent
    Seasonal Influenza Virus-like Particle (VLP) Vaccine in Healthy Adults" on
    Saturday, October 31, 2009 at the 47(th) Annual Meeting of the Infectious
    Diseases Society of America (IDSA).

     

    This presentation included data from a study of Novavax's trivalent seasonal
    influenza VLP vaccine that began in May of this year among healthy adults 18 to
    49 years of age. The vaccine contained VLPs matched to the influenza strains
    recommended for the 2008-2009 influenza vaccine including H1N1
    A/Brisbane/59/2007, H3N2 A/Brisbane/10/2007, and B/Florida/04/2006. The study
    enrolled 241 subjects in total, including 221 who were randomized to receive
    either VLP vaccine at 15 mcg or 60 mcg or a placebo and 20 subjects who received
    an inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV).

     

    The trivalent seasonal influenza VLP vaccine was well tolerated and immunogenic.
    The incidence of adverse events was comparable in the VLP vaccine groups (10.6%)
    and the placebo group (11.8%). No serious vaccine-related adverse events have
    been reported to date. The VLP vaccine induced robust hemagglutination inhibition
    (HAI) antibody responses against all three strains in the vaccine and a drifted
    strain. Seroconversion (greater than or equal to 4-fold rise in titer from
    baseline) rates met the suggested FDA criteria for licensure of seasonal
    influenza vaccines for all three strains. For subjects in the 15 mcg group,
    seroconversion rates (95% CIs) were 57% (44, 68), 86% (75,93), and 62% (50,74)
    against the H1N1, H3N2, and B strains, respectively. Seroprotection (titer
    greater than or equal to 1:40) rates met the FDA criteria for licensure for all
    strains except the H1N1 strain. For subjects in the 15 mcg group, seroprotection
    rates (95% CIs) were 67% (54,78), 91% (82,97), and 84% (73,92) against the H1N1,
    H3N2, and B strains, respectively. Interestingly, the FDA seroconversion and
    seroprotection criteria were also met for a drifted H3N2 strain,
    A/Wisconsin/67/05, which was included in the 2006-2007 influenza vaccine. The
    seroconversion and seroprotection rates against this strain were 77% and 93%,
    respectively, among subjects in the 15 mcg group.

     

    Antibody responses were observationally compared among VLP vaccine and TIV
    recipients although the sample size for the TIV group was too small to support
    definitive conclusions. In this small study, HAI responses against the H1N1 and B
    strains were statistically indistinguishable and HAI responses against the H3N2
    A/Brisbane strain appeared higher in VLP as compared with TIV recipients. These
    results support moving forward with a larger head-to-head study of the VLP
    vaccine as compared with TIV.

     

    In addition to the HAI responses, although not presented in the poster,
    functional antibody against the Neuraminidase enzyme was measured in the sera of
    immunized subjects using a neuraminidase inhibition assay (NAI) developed by
    Novavax scientists. Inhibition of neuraminidase activity may be important in
    reducing the spread of influenza virus down the respiratory tract and severe
    influenza disease. Preliminary data indicate that the trivalent seasonal
    influenza VLP vaccine induced functional antibody that inhibits neuraminidase
    activity of Types A and B influenza viruses.

     

    "We are pleased with the results of this study, which support continued
    development of novel VLP vaccines against influenza and moving forward with our
    head-to-head study in the elderly population this Fall," said Dr. Rahul Singhvi,
    President and Chief Executive Officer of Novavax. "We believe that our VLP
    influenza vaccine has the potential to induce broad immunity against influenza
    including cross-reactivity against drifted strains which may emerge throughout an
    influenza season," said Dr. Singhvi.

     

    Seasonal Influenza

     

    Globally, seasonal flu infects between 5 percent and 20 percent of the population
    and kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people each year. In the US, the Centers
    for Disease Control and Prevention reports that 15 to 60 million people contract
    influenza each year leading to over 200,000 hospitalizations and 36,000 deaths.
    The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices ("ACIP") currently recommends
    seasonal influenza vaccination for children six months through 18 years of age,
    pregnant women, and adults over 50 years of age, and individuals of any age with
    chronic health conditions or who are at high risk of influenza disease. Based on
    the expanding recommendation of vaccination to new age groups, the growing
    worldwide population to be vaccinated, and the need of an improved influenza
    vaccine for the elderly, global market projections of seasonal influenza are
    estimated to increase from $2.8 billion in 2007 to $6.5 billion by 2013.

     

    About VLPs

     

    Virus-like particles (VLPs) mimic the external structure of viruses but lack the
    live genetic material that causes viral replication and infection. VLPs can be
    designed quickly to match individual viral strains and be produced efficiently
    using portable cell-culture technology. Novavax VLP-based vaccine candidates are
    produced more rapidly than egg-based vaccines by using proprietary, portable,
    recombinant cell-culture technology.

     

    About Novavax

     

    Novavax, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company, creating novel vaccines
    to address a broad range of infectious diseases worldwide, including H1N1, using
    advanced proprietary virus-like-particle (VLP) technology. The company produces
    potent VLP-based, recombinant vaccines utilizing new and efficient manufacturing
    approaches. Novavax is committed to using its VLP technology to create
    country-specific vaccine solutions. It recently launched a joint venture with
    Cadila Pharmaceuticals, named CPL Biologicals, to develop and manufacture
    vaccines, biological therapeutics and diagnostics in India. Additional
    information about Novavax is available on the company's website:
    www.novavax.com.

     

    Forward-Looking Statements

     

    Statements herein relating to future financial or business performance,
    conditions or strategies and other financial and business matters, including
    expectations regarding clinical trials and development of the 2009 H1N1 vaccine,
    the potential use of any data from clinical trials and other anticipated
    milestones are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private
    Securities Litigation Reform Act. Novavax cautions that these forward-looking
    statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties, which
    change over time. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from
    the results discussed in the forward-looking statements or historical experience
    include risks and uncertainties, including clinical trial results, which may not
    be sufficient for regulatory approval or may indicate safety concerns not yet
    encountered; even if the results of the planned clinical trial are positive, the
    data may not be accepted by regulatory bodies in other countries or the 2009 H1N1
    vaccine may not be approved by the Mexican government or additional clinical
    trials may be required; if approved, approval of the 2009 H1N1 vaccine may not be
    timely and thus may not be granted until after the 2009/2010 flu season has
    ended; sales of the 2009 H1N1 vaccine are not scheduled to begin until late in
    the 2009/2010 flu season which could result in poor sales; Avimex is expected to
    be responsible for sales of the 2009 H1N1 vaccine in Mexico, thus, the Company
    would be dependent on Avimex's sales effort; the Company has not yet
    manufactured, or relied on third parties to manufacture, any vaccines at a
    commercial scale; the 2009 H1N1 vaccine must be manufactured in a short period of
    time and will be subject to scale-up, validation and inspection; competition from
    already approved vaccines for the 2009 H1N1 flu; business abilities and judgment
    of personnel and corporate partners; and the availability of qualified personnel.
    Further information on the factors and risks that could affect Novavax's
    business, financial conditions and results of operations, is contained in
    Novavax's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which are
    available at www.sec.gov. These forward-looking statements speak only as
    of the date of this press release, and Novavax assumes no duty to update
    forward-looking statements.

     

    SOURCE Novavax, Inc.
    www.novavax.com

     

    Copyright (C) 2009 PR Newswire. All rights reserved
    2 Nov 2009, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Not strictly an H1N1 play, but this is a good example of how many of the larger pharmaceutical companies go about acquiring technology.

     

    (November 2) Pfizer eyes cooperation with Protalix, if it doesn't snap it up first.

     

    Pfizer, the world's largest pharmaceutical company, is considering forging a cooperation deal with Protalix Biotherapeutics and may even try to buy the Israeli company. Its stock is up over 5% as I am writing this.

     

    Protalix developed the ProCellEx system for producing medical proteins through the genetic engineering of carrot cells (Plants). This method is up to 90% cheaper than other production methods including the genetic engineering of mammal cells or bacteria.

     

    The new method avoids exposure to potential contaminants involved in the use of mammal or bacterial cells, increases the capacity to reproduce identical molecules, and makes it possible to quickly increase production.

     

    Pfizer is probably interested in Protalix because of both Uplyso and the ProCellEx technology. According to Protalix, the ability to produce similar versions of biological drugs through an entirely different production method allows it to bypass patent restrictions on many biological medications.

     

    Protalix's approach could make production of biogeneric versions of biological drugs possible at a vastly reduced cost.

     

    (ed: in other words, the technology lets them product generic versions of drugs currently under patient protection.

     

    www.haaretz.com/hasen/...
    2 Nov 2009, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3364) | Send Message
     
    Now this a group worth joining, talking about Investments and changes in Technology.

     

    As Maya put it and User investigated, an, as yet, unseen mutation is from Bird to Every living thing. Medicago has the lead here.

     

    There is no way for The Traditional and Innovative Vaccine Tech combined to produce the Needed 2 billion plus doses.

     

    You can either use an M-14 or a Sawed-off sthotgun approach, before all is said and done if there is something in the offing, the company will go up.

     

    Just an Opinion, H5N1, bird flu, that's what Medicago is working on.
    2 Nov 2009, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Yes, User, mom did indeed hit the deck. Nothing broken, thank Heavens. The temp live-in help this weekend was nothing short of terrible. Mom is dinged up. I put her back on the O2 so she can heal those nasty bruises faster.

     

    Have to catch up with this column.

     

    Okay doing it...because I bagged a little over 2K already today day trading (ATPG). Bought in 4K shares @ $17.48 (when I saw a 10,000 share buy at the same price) and then sold at $18.00. Jag's making me happy, too.

     

    I WANT THAT $3850 BACK THAT I LOST LAST WEEK WHILE GETTING MOM A FLU SHOT!

     

    2 Nov 2009, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am glad she was not badly hurt. Hugs to your Mom (((())))

     

    Freya - I really love Medicago's story... However, I can't get anywhere near a real-time price for the shares on my trading platform WFB. In addition, the listed price on Yahoo did not agree with the price on Medicago's web site. So I gave up, and sold all my shares. I am going to wait until they re-list.
    2 Nov 2009, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pfizer, the world's largest pharmaceutical company, is considering forging a cooperation deal with Protalix Biotherapeutics (PLX) and may even try to buy the Israeli company. Protalix closed up 10% today.
    2 Nov 2009, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Karma transfer initiated to your Mom, Maya!

     

    As for stocks, this is what I have been looking at today in the pharma/drug area: BDSI is a company that I have been watching. BioDelivery Sciences International, Inc. American company, out of Raleigh, NC. Specialty pharmaceutical company. Has some interesting patented drug delivery technology. BEMA and Bioral (cochleate) drug delivery. It also has its own custom recipes for pharmaceuticals for "short term acute conditions", for pain and fungal infections.

     

    I like its top product, ONSOLIS, "a treatment for pain in opioid tolerant patients with cancer". BDSI (BioDelivery Sciences) has just licensed the commercialization and distribution rights for ONSOLIS to Meda AB.

     

    I have been looking for companies that can help with pain in the massive flood of boomers entering their older years and confronting things like cancer who have a delivery system that can get the job done in creative ways.

     

    It traded down to $3.95 today. I see it dropping more if the market goes south, though I consider it a good buy where it is now.

     

    I have also starting looking into CelSci (CVM) at $.92 per share. This one has been on a wild ride, and I will report back more data as I compile it. Seems like a potential cheaper stock to review, for those who like the penny stocks.
    2 Nov 2009, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 4) From Maya

     

    BioSante (BPAX) is doing a two-day presentation at the Oppenheimer Health Care Conference. CEO is giving a speech @ 1:00 today. - Mayascribe

     

    www.biosantepharma.com...
    3 Nov 2009, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    OK, User, maybe we should start tracking CVM (Cel Sci) - they have a H1N1 application via their LEAPS Program. They are promising an update "soon" on this subject.

     

    www.tradingmarkets.com.../
    3 Nov 2009, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CVM does indeed look highly promising. First of all this is a new investment play… This is our first Mutation Play. I will include the link to this information in the summary section of the Concentrator with your by-line. Well done tripleback!

     

    Here is a brief review of the play - It draws on the information provided in the link below:

     

    CEL-SCI is working on proprietary technology (L.E.A.P.S. (Ligand Epitope Antigen Presentation System) that potentially induces protection against illnesses such as the swine influenza. L.E.A.P.S. helps direct the immune response to the vaccine "epitope" (That part of a biomolecule (such as a protein) that is the target of an immune response). This play is much broader than a H1N1 play, its potentially a play that affects all viruses and vaccines.

     

    Virus's react to counter measures. They react by adopting changes to get around the counter measure (ed. current vaccines). In other words, it will genetically modify itself and circumvent the vaccines, as well as the Tamiflus and Relenzas.

     

    With that in mind, in late June, CEL-SCI filed a provisional U.S. patent application covering its immune therapy drugs (vaccines) for the prevention/treatment of H1N1, swine, bird flu, Influenza A and/or evolving mutants or variants of these viruses. Some experts believe that by the next flu season the swine flu virus will have evolved and/or combined with other viruses to create a much more lethal new virus. Which is exactly what happened in the case of the Spanish flu pandemic.

     

    CEL-SCI’s (CVM) preclinical studies have demonstrated that vaccines utilizing its proprietary L.E.A.P.S. technology provides the ability to attack mutations the moment they show up, as opposed to any other vaccines or treatments that exist now. This would be a major breakthrough.

     

    CEL-SCI’s CEO, Geert Kersten explains …"if I’m looking for a bad guy and I know that bad guy is going to undergo facial reconstruction or hair color changes, the only way I’m going to be able to capture that bad guy is by focusing on parts of that person that cannot be changed…" … "To boil it down to simplistic almost cartoonish terms, this thing (ed: H1N1 virus) has figured out how to survive the environmental conditions in which influenza viruses have never survived, namely heat and humidity. This is contrary to all of influenza history to see a virus surviving the way this one is.

     

    It knows enough that vaccines - ever since we started creating vaccines - are produced in eggs and it’s genetic code knows enough not to allow a vaccine to be produced in eggs quickly. This is not by chance that we’ve got this problem. This all gets back to a virus that has been around for hundreds of years and through hundreds of years of experience has morphed itself into something that is wary of being trapped or deceived It’s ability to have done what it’s already done suggests … a genetic code internal to the virus - that will allow it to adapt in ways in which we have not seen influenza adapt before. “

     

    biomedreports.com/arti...
    3 Nov 2009, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Jssss trip….. CVM is up about 25% since you mentioned it.
    3 Nov 2009, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I will buy some more CVM on the dips. I hope this helps our group which is working this thread, User! Anyone who wishes to reach me directly can do so via my website.

     

    Also note their other very promising product, Multikine:

     

    www.ask.com/bar?q=mult...

     

    I am also looking into several others in the beaten-down pharma area, and will post back up after I do a little more due diligence on them.
    3 Nov 2009, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You know trip.... I was thinking during lunch that the common cold is a virus, and the reason there is no vaccine for the common cold is because of its ability to mutate quickly. I wonder if this new technology opens up a possibility to produce a vaccine for the common cold?
    3 Nov 2009, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes, my thoughts precisely when I first read about this company and its products. The approach is, well, "elegant".

     

    I will always be a science fiction fan when it comes to the technology underlying some of these companies. I won't say how often I get an idea, look for a company exploring down the same path, and discover it is privately held...

     

    I am still watching a handful of these with an eye to investing, should they ever go public.
    3 Nov 2009, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    CNN video on safety of H1N1 vaccine:

     

    www.cnn.com/video/
    3 Nov 2009, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Uh, oh. CDC said they're going to stay with egg technology- maybe for next 2 years. Per Garza:
    seekingalpha.com/autho...
    3 Nov 2009, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Sell NVAX before close?
    3 Nov 2009, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    All ears re. NVAX. Currently at 3.76/3.77
    3 Nov 2009, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    I sold all but 350 shares of NVAX.

     

    Also sold (BPAX) for a teeny gain today, (about $80 on 1000 shares).

     

    Thanks OG, for that news. I'm not sure selling NVAX is a good idea or not. But that news...not good.
    3 Nov 2009, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    NVAX currently moving up a little, now at 3.78. I have been watching it this afternoon, its been moving upward for the last half hour.
    3 Nov 2009, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Got it----> (CALM) buying some next stop.
    3 Nov 2009, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Support is $3.43 from a month ago. Depends on your goal. I'm not into it as heavily as you guys are. Plus I sold $5.00 calls, I have .90 protection.I'm not day trading this. My average price per share is 3.83. I'm still safe but I may start a put position to hedge more. Put it this way, on a bad day this will fall hard. Now, it's in a channel. Look at short term chart. Earnings announcement is Friday. I'm not selling it now. But I might put on a put spread before Friday, just in case.
    Don't forget they just signed that deal w the Indian company. This is an international story, not just USA.

     

    On Nov 03 03:29 PM Mayascribe wrote:

     

    > Sell NVAX before close?
    3 Nov 2009, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I will sell half today, and see what happens tomorrow. GOT to pay attention to how the feds jump on this one, though...
    3 Nov 2009, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Calm makes the eggs.
    3 Nov 2009, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Maya, may I ask, what's your exit plan for your 350 shares NVAX? You guys think the Fed will raise rates .25%? Or just talk strongly?
    3 Nov 2009, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry for the delay guys, I am tied up with a project today.

     

    I think OG is correct, the play with Nvax is NOT currently US, Its Mexico and India, particularly India (large population play). They have a big deal going with Cadila Pharmaceuticals in India who has begun construction of a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility that will be used to produce pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccines using Novavax's virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine technology. Cadila is paying for that out of its own pocket.

     

    Nvax is running human trials in Mexico and India now... results should occur sometime in this final quarter....

     

    Like Maya, I have traded in and out of this stock several times. However, now that the payoff seems to be close, I am concerned I could miss a major part of an up move.. So I purchased a sizable amount today at 3.75 and I am going to hold it.

     

    For those of you that got out today, I will try to post heads ups in the trading comments if I see something happen. Of course I will also post if my furs get blasted by the flaming blowtorch again....
    3 Nov 2009, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I just sold a big chunk of CALM. Cal-Maine eggs were profitable for me - sold week before last. They are the biggest egg source. I doubt this change will make a big dent in their sales, either way.

     

    I should break even on NVAX, I haven't held these long... Actually, I made $300 on the first half I just sold.

     

    On Nov 03 03:50 PM Mayascribe wrote:

     

    > Calm makes the eggs.
    3 Nov 2009, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 3) - CDC will stick with "tried and true" methods for flu vaccine production - M.E. Garza's Instablog

     

    CDC Director Dr. Thomas R. Frieden said his group is looking to stick with proven methods for vaccine production.

     

    While the director admitted that there are new technologies available to speed up the process for flu vaccine production, changes in the way the U.S. Government handles that time intensive process may not see a change for "at least a couple of years."

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    3 Nov 2009, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9693) | Send Message
     
    Oh Gee, I think the fed stays put. They do not want to spook the market. Since I always get it wrong, count on that .25%.
    3 Nov 2009, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    I always get it wrong too. That must mean we're contrarians, lol.

     

    On Nov 03 04:32 PM doubleguns wrote:

     

    > Oh Gee, I think the fed stays put. They do not want to spook the
    > market. Since I always get it wrong, count on that .25%.
    3 Nov 2009, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9693) | Send Message
     
    The metals surge today would indicate no rate increase too. Then there is Roubini and Cashin that say the market collapses if dollar strengthens. Are they just trying to manipulate the FED. Might work.
    3 Nov 2009, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    To OG, just my take on the deal with the G20, Bernanke and the Fed-Watch, I would say that they will try to talk the dollar up first, though there will be pressure to tack on .25 points. I would be very surprised if they did this right out of the box at this time.

     

    I saw where Australia tacked on another .25, though their situation is radically different.

     

    Norway added this past week, too.

     

    We will see what happens. The Euros are really unhappy with the weak dollar and their punk exports. The Chinese are trying to figure out the proper lever to move or control Obama, but he surprised them with his slap at the tires and steel imports. If their own currency wasn't welded to the dollar, it would be a VERY different scenario...

     

    I think Obama will get just enough support from the conference - a DARN short piece of rope - to "make progress" before it gets nasty.

     

    I personally think Geithner is on VERY thin ice, and that Bernanke will stand on his hind legs and shock folks this winter when he goes in defense of the dollar (though the world financial system will ultimately force his hand there).

     

    Just an observer's random thoughts!
    3 Nov 2009, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    OG: Remaining shares of NVAX are $3.76. I'm operating from a day trader's perspective right now. I'm playing the dollar and the news. (Wish I would have played BPAX a little harder. My remaining 500 shares of the 1000 I bought this morning are up over 12%.) The only stock in my e-gamer I'm long on is Jaguar.

     

    Next level down support for NVAX is $3.42, set 10/02. High set 9/1 @ $7.47. Today it closed at $3.83. The question I pose is that why do I want to be in a stock that is down nearly 50% in two months? I may, tomorrow, go ahead and sell the rest of the NVAX. I understand it's a global play. But the global news involving Novavax has not moved the stock, quite the opposite, lately. With NVAX seemingly unable to sell their VLP technology to the US for two more years, my guess is that NVAX will be a stick in the mud stock for some time. Maybe Spain or Indonesia or some other country will come in and buy their technology? Looking forward to their earnings.

     

    For all NVAX owners I hope I'm wrong, and if the stock jumps, I'll be back aboard with a Cheshire grin on my face..

     

    May be the thing that's more important is how this week pans out.

     

    I still think Obama and the FED will try to keep the image of a strong dollar until the Malaysian meet. Talk big, keep interest rates flat. The ponzi scheme continues.
    3 Nov 2009, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Just finished looking at the 200 day charts.

     

    NVAX reports next week (11/9?) so depending on your view it's either time to buy, sell or hold now (nay other choices you find, let me know :-) But I wouldn't sell any covered calls at this level right now.

     

    Anyway, it has now visited the max low range I was looking for (~$3.65) twice in the last few days and bounced off. Looks like *maybe* a day or two for piddling around in this range (because the volume on price moves has not been strong - looks like trying to consolidate) and then should start to work it's way up again. It might wait until after reporting - which of course could crash my whole scheme. But I really am thinking that, based on the news we've had from them, that the report should be well received. Fortunately, they are not dependent on the CDC - a lot of their effort is in foreign markets.

     

    I'm looking to close my Jan covered calls and take profit before it ramps up again, but the GD market is being greedy and won't even look at anything near a theoretical value. And I'm not even trying to be greedy - just asking to keep 50% of the premium I took in.

     

    Anyway, keep in mind that I'm a total n00b, so keep a box of salt grains in hand.

     

    HardToLove

     

    On Nov 03 04:24 PM tripleblack wrote:

     

    > I just sold a big chunk of CALM. Cal-Maine eggs were profitable for
    > me - sold week before last. They are the biggest egg source. I doubt
    > this change will make a big dent in their sales, either way.
    >
    > I should break even on NVAX, I haven't held these long... Actually,
    > I made $300 on the first half I just sold.
    3 Nov 2009, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting perspectives. Thanks to all for sharing. HTL you must have an old soul. You don't sound like a newbie. But NVAX reports Friday-maybe the conference call is next week?
    3 Nov 2009, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I like HT's chart advice :) Its been very helpful to me.
    3 Nov 2009, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9693) | Send Message
     
    I would love to stay and comment more tonight but I am off to my candidates house to eat pizza, watch the election tally come in on the internet and celebrate or cry in our pizza.
    3 Nov 2009, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    On Nov 03 06:23 PM optionsgirl wrote:

     

    > Very interesting perspectives. Thanks to all for sharing. HTL
    > you must have an old soul.

     

    When I was very young, another told me I was an "old soul". I did some interesting ESP things back then.

     

    > You don't sound like a newbie.

     

    <*blush*> And thank you.

     

    If I don't sound like a n00b, I've just been lucky so far. I know that no matter how much I keep trying to learn, there's more to go.

     

    Maybe it's because I almost had a career as a thespian when I was younger? ;-)

     

    > But NVAX reports Friday-maybe the conference call is next
    > week?

     

    I think I confused my equities. CPST reports 11/9 if I recall. I'll have to check my spreadsheets to be sure (or my comments - I know I posted the real NVAX info somewhere).

     

    HardToLove
    3 Nov 2009, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • SAS70
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    snicker> I hope you've got "protection". ;-))

     

    Good One

     

    I'll have to ask Maya about it.

     

    I think he was gonna turn it into a movie. You would think he would have no problem finding people on Wall Street who would be willing to screw each other. It's has to be the screwin capital of world.
    3 Nov 2009, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7354) | Send Message
     
    I really am interested in the CVM play. It sounds very interesting, not just from an investing point of view, but in terms of creating a vaccine for flu and cold. Man, that could be a real blockbuster for years!
    3 Nov 2009, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    chickens make eggs!

     

    On Nov 03 03:50 PM Mayascribe wrote:

     

    > Calm makes the eggs.
    3 Nov 2009, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    And eggs make chickens!

     

    SAS: Funny in a curious way that my dictionary reads this way top to bottom:

     

    prophet
    prophetess
    prophetic

     

    and then:

     

    prophylactic

     

    Man, that's freak'n comedy.
    3 Nov 2009, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Dr. S. Leeb today:
    The stock market rally fizzled as a breakdown of the ISM data revealed the pace of new orders, supplier deliveries and customers’ inventories all slowed in the month, while prices paid rose. So while the overall report suggested the economy is healthier than it was, key components suggest the recovery remains spotty, at best.

     

    There is much more economic data due out this week that could roil the market. For instance, the unemployment rate is expected to reach 9.9 percent, but a double-digit print will bring out the bears in force. From our perspective, even more important with be weekly jobless claims, which remain persistently high. Money supply figures, which continue to contract, could also set off alarm bells. Without more bank lending the economic recovery is doomed.

     

    The Federal Reserve’s policy setting committee is meeting again this week, which could also affect the market. No change is expected with short-term interest rates, but the wording in the policy statement will be closely watched. At this point, with the recovery still quite fragile, the last thing the Fed wants to do is get stocks running significantly higher. That would put pressure on Bernanke and company to start raising rates again sooner than they’d otherwise prefer.

     

    In fact, the Fed may offer a somewhat more muted assessment of the economy than it did six weeks ago in its last policy statement. The Fed could seek to engineer a modest correction in stocks. By doing so, the central bankers would help keep long-term interest rates down and make it more palatable to continue with its policy of quantitative easing, further aiding the weak banking sector.

     

    Whether we see prices erode from here or if stocks can manage another hurrah back toward the recent highs is open to speculation. One thing is certain, the deteriorating market internals tell us that the stock market is moving closer to its first significant pullback since the spring. Our hope is the correction will be limited in scope, but our fear is it could be far greater than most investors care to imagine.

     

    Looking further out, we see inflation as being a very real threat. And we’re not the only ones who think so. Warren Buffett’s decision to buy Burlington Northern Santa Fe, his biggest acquisition ever, is a massive bet by the Oracle of Omaha on inflation since the railroad is levered to commodity prices. The market is recognizing this by bidding up gold prices sharply to a record high, even in the face of a strong dollar.
    3 Nov 2009, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9693) | Send Message
     
    WE WON!!!!!!
    3 Nov 2009, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7354) | Send Message
     
    DG - It's beginning to look like the conservatives are gaining a lot of traction in every race, even in upstate NY. Conservative principles are coming back into vogue. Maybe even a move back to Constitution!

     

    BTW, my partner told me about a rumor related to H1N1. He said that, when the CDC was asked about the possibilities of swine flu mutating to include some form of avian flu, they answered. "When pigs fly!"
    3 Nov 2009, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9693) | Send Message
     
    Here in Cincinnati we have the flying pig marathon every year. The city is decorated with resin flying pigs. Guess we might be ground zero.
    3 Nov 2009, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7354) | Send Message
     
    Maya - You may want to print this thread for future reference. I think there is a great science fiction thriller embedded in here somewhere!
    4 Nov 2009, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    VICL: Reported this A.M. Revenue $3.9M loss $0.14/shr

     

    ir.vical.com/releasede...

     

    HardToLove
    4 Nov 2009, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Some details on the Novartis (NVS) China Play:
    (November 4) Novartis Seeks to Make China One of Its Top Three Global Markets - ChinaBio Today

     

    Novartis (NVS) will begin a five-year, $1 billion China initiative with two aims: the company will dramatically increase its investment in its China R&D facility, and it will seek to make China one its top three markets worldwide. The comments were made by Novartis’ CEO, Daniel Vasella, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    (November 4) Novartis to buy 85% of Chinese vaccines producer - User 283977

     

    Novartis (NVS) said on Wednesday that it definitively agreed to acquire 85% of the closely held Chinese vaccines company Zhejiang Tianyuan Bio-Pharmaceutical Co. for about $125 million cash. The Chinese company produces vaccines targeting a number of viral and bacterial diseases, Novartis said. In 2008, Zhejiang Tianyuan doubled its net sales from the 2006 level, to $25 million. The deal is subject to conditions including regulatory clearance in China. On Tuesday, Novartis had said that it planned to invest $1 billion over five years for research and development in China.

     

    www.marketwatch.com/st...

     

    Novaris is also a main supplier of H1N1 vaccine using the traditional egg production method, and says it will deliver about 30 million doses of swine flu vaccine to the United States by the end of November.

     

    www.google.com/hostedn...
    4 Nov 2009, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Southwest IDEAS conference presenting Nov 11-12 at the Hilton, Anatole Houston TX. 35 companies presenting - NVAX is one.

     

    Schedule will be @ www.swideas.com

     

    John Mauldin will present during Thursday's lunch program.

     

    I'll keep an eye open to see if a webcast appears. Attendees include analysts, investores, ... yadda, yadda.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Nov 2009, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Backed up SF Concentrator as of 9:37 Pacific.
    4 Nov 2009, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi all, please use the November Part 2 Swine Flu Concentrator for new posts.
    4 Nov 2009, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Mark: Good idea. Maybe we should have my agent contact Hollywood and we all could get together and have a reality mini series, (while you were away I did actually come up with that one. "We'd put a beat down on CSI," I think I wrote).
    4 Nov 2009, 05:23 PM Reply Like
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