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  • Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 5 - 13 Part 3)  69 comments
    Nov 5, 2009 5:55 PM | about stocks: APT, BAX, BCRX, BDX, CBM, CLX, CVM, DGX, ECL, HOLX, GSK, MMM, NVAX, NVS, PURE, ROG, SVA, VICL
    Explanation:

    I will post Swine-Flu and related articles under this heading.  The top of the instablog will contain my current months links  preceded with a one or two liner that explains the link.  A more complete summary of the link will be in the comments area.  At the bottom of the Instablog we have definition of terms, a summary of Swine Flu / vaccine investment plays, the 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map, Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu, and Memory Alpha which contains links to previous news concentrators and authors articles on the subject.

    I will be backing this up frequently as well.
    Last backup:   November 13 as of 2:28 Pacific

    _____________________

    Update History:
    Added Overview of H1N1 / Categories of Vaccine Investment Plays Added Memory Alpha
    Added Link to Google's Swine Flu Infection Map
    Added Red Cross Tips for Dealing With The Flu
    Added definition of EUA and PREP act
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into two parts for October
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into three parts for October
    Added Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 1
    Bolded References to Older Swine Flu Concentrators in Memory Alpha
    Expanded the list of stocks discussed in the tags
    Alphabetized stocks in the tags
    Updated the play by stock list
    Added a table that contains the web site addresses for the companies discussed
    _____________________
    November Links:

    (November 13) Role Of Statins In Reducing H1N1 Mortality Rates Studied - User 283977
    www.physorg.com/news177329653.html

    (November 12) Pandemic 2009 Influenza Update: US FDA Approves GSK's Pandemic H1N1 Vaccine - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/170691.php

    (November 10) H1N1 Cases Increase In China, Japan; Afghanistan Attempts To Contain Virus - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/170401.php

    (November 8) D.C. Vaccine Conference Will Attract Government Policy Makers and Biotech Innovators - FROM: M.E. Garza's Instablog
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/424698-m-e-ga...

    (November 7) CEL-SCI (NYSEMKT:CVM) To Conduct First Clinical Study Of Investigational LEAPS-H1N1 Treatment For Hospitalized H1N1 Infected Patients - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/170190.php

    (November 6) HHS Orders Intravenous Antiviral Flu Medication To Help Patients Hospitalized With 2009 H1N1 - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/170140.php

    (November 5) MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season - User 283977
    www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...

    (November 5) Merriman Curhan Ford initiates coverage on Novavax (Nasdaq: NVAX) with a Buy rating and $6-$8 price target range. - H.T. Love
    Sorry - link will not copy

    (November 5) Analysis Of Data From Japan Suggests A Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php

    (November 5) Today BioCryst (NASDAQ:BCRX) received its first government order for 10,000 courses of peramivir with a hefty $22.5 million price tag -- more than $2,000 per course. - User 283977
    finance.yahoo.com/news/The-2000-Swine-Fl...

    (November 5) H1N1 Masks Boost Firm
    Alpha Pro Tech (NYSEMKT:APT) is considering the addition of new N95 manufacturing lines, each capable of contributing $9 million in annual revenue. The company speculated that the H1N1 pandemic could last two to five years, which bodes well for an acceleration of its sales momentum through at least 2010. - User 283977
    Sorry - link will not copy

    (November 5) Novartis Cell-Based H1N1 Vaccine Gets German OK
    Swiss drug maker Novartis (NYSE:NVS) Thursday said it received regulatory approval to sell its cell-based swine flue vaccine in Germany, Making an important milestone in gaining acceptance for newer rapid ways of producing vaccines.
    Novartis is close to completing a second cell culture-based influenza vaccine manufacturing site in the U.S., which is being built in partnership with the US Department of Health and Human Services. - User 283977
    //smartmoney.com/breaking-news/on/?story=O...

    (November 3) - CDC will stick with "tried and true" methods for flu vaccine production - M.E. Garza's Instablog
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/424698-m-e-ga...

    (November 3) - CEL-SCI (CVM) is working on a technology that effectively attacks a virus even after it attempts to mutate to another form.  A brief explanation is provided in this concentrator. More complete info is in the link - tripleback.
    biomedreports.com/articles/most-popular/...

    (November 1) A quick overview concerning the issue of Mercury (specifically Thimerosal) in H1N1 vaccines. The second link tells us that if the presence of Thimerosal raises concerns, it may be possible to find Single-dose syringes of H1N1 vaccine which are thimerosal-free.  User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169364.php
    www.physorg.com/news172252051.html


    ___________________
    Some Definitions:

    Swine Flu - Novel H1N1 flu, popularly known as swine flu, is a respiratory infection caused by an influenza virus first recognized in spring 2009. The new virus, which is officially called swine influenza A (H1N1), contains genetic material from human, swine and avian flu viruses. (By Mayo Clinic staff)

    Pandemic - The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people.

    A World Health Organization phase 6 pandemic indicates that influenza due to the novel H1N1 swine flu is occurring in multiple countries around the world and that human infection is widespread. The classification does not reflect the severity of individual infections.

    Pulmonary Embolism - Occurs when a blood clot forms in an arm or leg breaks free and enters the lungs where it is too large to pass through the small vessels of the lungs and forms a blockage. This stops blood from flowing into an area of the lung, and the part of the lung dies because it does not receive oxygen.
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/153796.php

    What is an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?
    An EUA may be issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow either the use of an unapproved medical product or an unapproved use of an approved medical product during certain types of emergencies with specified agents.

    What is the PREP Act?
    The PREP Act authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (“Secretary”) to issue a declaration (“PREP Act declaration”) that provides immunity from tort liability (except for willfull misconduct) for claims of loss caused, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats and conditions determined by the Secretary to constitute a present, or credible risk of a future public health emergency to entities and individuals involved in the development, manufacture, testing, distribution, administration, and use of such countermeasures.

    The PREP Act also authorizes an emergency fund in the United States Treasury to provide compensation for injuries directly caused by administration or use of a countermeasure covered by the Secretary’s declaration. While no funds have been appropriated for this purpose, if funds are appropriated, compensation may then be available for medical benefits, lost wages and death benefits to individuals for specified injuries.
    cdc.gov/h1n1flu/eua/qa.htm

    Why Slow Production:
    One dose of swine flu vaccine for every two eggs, compared with two doses of seasonal flu vaccine per egg
    http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/10/22/quest_for_swine_flu_vaccine_giving_some_firms_a_boost/

    _____________________
    Brief Overview of Categories of H1N1/ Vaccine Investment Plays:

    I - Vaccines / Prevention
    1) Production Method / Capacity plays (NVAX) (NASDAQ:VICL) (NVS)
    2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play (NASDAQ:SVA)
    3) Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) (NYSE:BAX) (NYSE:BDX)
    4) Outsourced production plays
    5) Bio -Defence (OTC:MDCGF)
    6) Anti-Mutation / Pan-Influenza Play (CVM) (NYSEMKT:NNVC)

    II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
    1) Dealing with severe lung infections (Fludase® (DAS181)) (NYSE:CBM) (NASDAQ:AEMD)
    2) ICU treatments (BCRX) (NYSE:GSK) (NYSE:ROG)
    III - Population Avoidance:
    1) masks/ disinfectants… Surgical masks are good enough (APT) (NYSE:MMM) (NYSE:CLX) (NYSE:ECL) (OTCQB:PURE)

    IV - Testing do you have it? (NASDAQ:GPRO)
    1) Test kits - (NYSE:DGX)

    V - Merger / Acquisitions / Licensing (VICL) (NVAX)
    _____________________
    Sorry this is still a graphic instead of a table. I played with the table tool, but its a
    PITA to work with.

    Swine Flu Companies Discussed and Their Web Sites


    _____________________
    Swine Flu Hits Stuffed Animal World:



    2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map:
    The Link is from DoubleGuns
    flutracker.rhizalabs.com/

    I am not too happy with any of the outbreak maps. They all make the same mistake, they try to show the worlds data on one chart. This makes them SLOW.
    I will keep looking for one that works faster.
    _____________________

    Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu:

    IF YOU ARE ILL -
    * Stay in a room separate from common areas of the home and avoid contact with others as much as possible.

    * Stay at home for at least 24 hours after their fever is gone without using medicine to reduce the fever.

    * Get lots of rest and drink plenty of fluids.

    * Consider wearing a facemask, if available and tolerable, when sharing common spaces with household members. (ed - surgical masks ok).

    * Check with your healthcare provider about whether to take antiviral medication, or if fever persists, whether antibiotics are needed.

    WHEN CARING FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS THE FLU -
    *Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces that everyone touches.

    * Use detergent and very hot water to do dishes and wash clothes. It's okay to wash everyone's dishes and clothes together. Wash your hands after handling dirty laundry.

    * Designate only one adult as the caregiver. People at increased risk of severe illness from the flu should not be caregivers.

    * Although not mentioned by the Red Cross, the caregiver should probably ware a surgical mask as well when entering the sick room.

    * Deal with crisis situations calmly and confidently to give the best support to the person being cared for.
    _____________________

    MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season

    Click here to link to the Mayo tool:
    www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...

    _____________________
    Suggeted Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php

    After comparing more than two dozen possible scenarios for closing a school, the analysis suggested three optimal scenarios:

    1. A single-day influenza-related absentee rate of 5 percent

    2. Absenteeism of 4 percent or more on two consecutive days

    3. Absenteeism of 3 percent or more on three consecutive days



    MEMORY ALPHA:
    Identifies key writers and comment streams / instablog's that regularly discuss the subject area. The previous concentrators are bolded.

    This will be updated monthly. The latest articles are at the top of the list. The past summary concentrators are bolded so they stand out.

    I am going to be improving the Memory Alpha Concept soon...

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 2009 - Part 1)
    Contains detail Swine Flu News and Comments from the first part of November (1 - 4)

    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (October 2009 - Part 3)
    Contains detail Swine Flu News and Comments from the second part of October (25 - 29)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    (October 28) Overview of presentations at the 7th Annual Vaccines: “All Things Considered”  conference to be held in Washington, D.C. on Nov 9-10, 2009. This conference promises to be the one-stop destination for valuable updates and exposure on all aspects of vaccine research, development, regulations, and policy.- Mayascribe
    gtcbio.com/userAgenda.aspx?id=166

    (October 26) - Good summary of recent events - optionsgirl
    Swine flu: Who's winning and losing in the H1N1 virus pandemic?
    dailyfinance.com/bloggers/melly-alazraki/

    (October 26) - The 8th annual Bio Investor Forum meets in San Francisco this week, October 28-29. Here is a link to a list of companies making presentations - User 283977
    investorforum.bio.org/opencms/bif/2009/c...

    October 25 - Swine Flu Concentrator (October Part 2)
    Contains detail Swine Flu News and Comments from the second part of October (20 - 24)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    (October 22)  Aethlon (AEMD) surfaced on our swine flu radar screen yesterday… Here is a new revenue stream identified by the company not related to Swine Flu. The stock is up 37% today - User 283977
    reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idU...

    Major development for NVAX that will significantly advance their timeline to production of commercial scale quantities of their H1N1 vaccine.
    (October 21) Novavax and Xcellerex Inc. announce collaboration to develop large-scale manufacturing process for 2009 H1N1 Influenza VLP Vaccine. - H.T. Love
    news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article...

    (October 21) Aethlon Medical (AEMD) Releases Medical Device Data Against The H1N1 Swine Flu Virus - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/168085.php

    (October 21) Novavax and Xcellerex Inc. announce collaboration to develop large-scale manufacturing process for 2009 H1N1 Influenza VLP Vaccine. - H.T. Love
    xcellerex.com/news-xcellerex.htm

    Expansion of SVA's H1N1 Vaccine into Mexico.
    (October 22) Sinovac Receives Certificate of Approval to Distribute PANFLU.1 (H1N1) in Mexico - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/168426.php

    October 21 - Swine Flu Concentrator (October Part 1)
    Contains detail Swine Flu News and Comments from the first part of October (1 - 20)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    (October 16) - FDA issues emergency use authorization [EUA] for commercial H1N1 flu test to Focus Diagnostics (DGX) - User 283977
    finance.yahoo.com/news/FDA-Issues-Anothe...

    Asthma Is Most Prevalent Underlying Illness Among Most Serious H1N1 Cases - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/167579.php

    (October 16, 2009) Red Cross Offers Important Tips For Caring For Someone With The Flu - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/167553.php

    (October 16) - Tamiflu-resistant new flu detected in patient with no record of Tamiflu use - doubleguns
    japantoday.com/category/national/view/ta...

    (October 15, 2009) - Tightening young visitor access to H1N1 patients in the hospital - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/167491.php

    October 9, 2009 Scientists Awaiting The Mutation Of H1N1 - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166825.php

    October 9 - Chinese Health Experts Look To Control Spread Of H1N1 In Country's Remote Regions - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166869.php

    October 9, 2009 - H1N1 flu taking off in U.S., officials say. But you can take H1N1 and seasonal shots at the same time. - User 283977
    reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE5...

    October 10, 2009 - Swine Flu Partys, Mix with the Infected, see if you can be Infected too - Freya
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166990.php

    October 11, 2009 - U.S. Department Of Health And Human Services And The Ad Council Launch National Campaign To Help Prevent The Spread Of The H1N1 Flu Virus. - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166935.php

    (October 12) -  A Mixed Bag for Traders and Investors in Healthcare - M. E. Garza
    India is rumoured to be one of the countries interested in Novavax's (NVAX) flu vaccine technology platform.
    seekingalpha.com/article/166076-a-mixed-...

    (October 13) Novavax (NVAX) Awarded NIH Grant for Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Vaccine Program - H. T. Love
    reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idU...

    (October 13) Sinovac Receives Certificate of Approval to Distribute Panflu (H5N1) Vaccine in Hong Kong. Its good for 5 years - User 283977
    prnewswire.com/news-releases/6407270...

    (October 14) CT Scans Show Patients With Severe Cases Of H1N1 Are At Risk For Developing Acute Pulmonary Emboli. Demonstrates superiority of CT scans over chest radiographs in identifying serious complications as a possible result of the H1N1 virus - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/167378.php

    (October 14) Rapid Vaccine Rollout Effective In Reducing Infection Rates, Shown By H1N1 Simulation Modeling. Underscores vital importance of the new rapid production methods (e.g., NVAX) (VICL) to manufacturer vaccines. - User283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/167324.php

    (October 5 - October 9) - Swine Flu fast forward - Freya
    * H1N1 vaccine does not substitute for Pneumonia shot. H1N1 infection dangerous for Pregnant Women. Getting H1N1 through blood banks
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/393700-freya/...

    (25 September 2009) Optimizing Influenza Vaccine Distributions
    To minimize deaths, infections, years  of life lost, contingent valuation and economic costs optimal vaccination policy is achieved by prioritization of schoolchildren and adults aged 30 to 39 years. - User283977
    sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/...

    September 20 - October 5) - Swine flu Updates - Freya
    * Freya was re-instated by SA - First discussion of hospital bed limited capacity issue. Freya identifies a new player in the VLP play - Medicago (OTC:MDCGF). Surgical masks are found to provide adequate protection against H1N1.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/393700-freya/...


    (September 16 - September 27) - med-stocks + 17 - one eye
    * List of med stocks. WHO up-dates vaccine does from 2 billion to 3 billion.
    seekingalpha.com/user/406793/instablog


    (September 12 - September 23) - Swine Flu-a scary little article - one eye.
    * optionsgirl reports $70.9 million contract for syringes and needles, sharps collectors and alcohol swabs to  Retractable Technologies (NYSEMKT:RVP), and another player in the Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) play (BDX). Quite a few companies mentioned here with respect to the Injection / Vaccine support services play. Discussion of NVAX's capital raising.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/406793-one-ey...


    (September 11 - September 16) - More from Swine Flu Country - one eye.
    * Mention that US vaccine supply may miss H1N1 peak and that cause of deaths from H1N1 re different from seasonal flu.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/406793-one-ey...


    (September 2 - September 25 Novavax's VLP Flu Vaccine Is A Game Changer - M.E. Garza - A great author for news on Biotech stocks.
    * Discusses the importance of new fast vaccine production methods
    seekingalpha.com/article/159622-novavax-...

    (September 8 - September 11) - SW Flu - one eye.
    *Review of Special Report in the 3 September 2009 issue of Nature, pages 20 - 21 on H1N1. Reports that public health-care system may be overwhelmed.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/406793-one-ey...


    (September 4 - September 8 ) - Swine Flu 2 - one eye.
    * Mayascribe's list of H1N1 stocks. User283977 reports revised categories of investment plays. Mayascribe adds (NYSEMKT:TPI) to the stock list.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/406793-one-ey...


    (August 29 - September 7) - The Swine Flu daily  - one eye -
    *Took over Freya's H1N1 news concentrator. Contains estimates of US GDP reductions - First categories of H1N1 investment plays - Mayascribe's list of H1N1 stocks
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/406793-one-ey...


    (August 27) - Swine Flu Part 3 - Freya
    *All valuable comments are lost
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/393700-freya/...


    (August 16) Swineflu updates part 2 - Freya
    *All valuable comments are lost
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/393700-freya/...


    (July 31, 2009) Swine Flu News-Daily- Freya
    * The person that started the H1N1 news research concentrator using the Instablog tool - Unfortunately, ALL of the valuable comments were erased because Freya was suspended by SA. However, her links to articles are still their.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/393700-freya/...

    ***


    Stocks: APT, BAX, BCRX, BDX, CBM, CLX, CVM, DGX, ECL, HOLX, GSK, MMM, NVAX, NVS, PURE, ROG, SVA, VICL
Back To FocalPoint Analytics' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (69)
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  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hugs to Freya!!!!!
    5 Nov 2009, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 5) MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season

     

    The flu symptoms self-assessment tool on MayoClinic.com helps you assess whether you or your loved ones have some form of flu, or just a cold. Click here to link to the tool:

     

    www.mayoclinic.com/hea...

     

    If you possibly or likely have the flu, you'll also learn whether antiviral medication is an option. And you can check a concise list of high-risk groups who should seek medical attention for the flu.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    5 Nov 2009, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
     
    NVAX:

     

    Today's SEC filings
    www.sec.gov/Archives/e...

     

    Summary from news: Cash & equiv $34.4MM Q3 rev. $201K vs $194K, loss -$0.08 (consensus expected was -$0.09) vs. -$0.12.

     

    Loss $7.5MM vs. $7.8MM YoY.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Nov 2009, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    LOL, report from the flu guinea pig here:

     

    CVM is up 20% this morning.

     

    www.marketwatch.com/st...

     

    News that they have begun clinical trials in their H1N1 LEAPS drug looks to be having an impact.

     

    I bought in at .92, and though I have been looking for dips to buy more, no dips really so far. We'll see.

     

    Guinea Pig #259, out.
    6 Nov 2009, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 6) HHS Orders Intravenous Antiviral Flu Medication To Help Patients Hospitalized With 2009 H1N1

     

    The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced contract awards for up to 120,000 treatment courses of intravenous (IV) antiviral drugs to help treat hospitalized 2009 H1N1 influenza patients.

     

    To help meet the potential need for IV medications to combat the H1N1 virus, HHS ordered 10,000 treatment courses each from BioCryst (BCRX), Roche (ROG) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), totaling $31.5 million. The contracts allow Health and Human Services to place additional orders of up to 30,000 treatment courses with each manufacturer over two years. Roche manufactures Tamiflu; GlaxoSmithKline, Relenza, and BioCryst manufactures Peramivir.

     

    Because there are no Food and Drug Administration (FDA) -approved antiviral medications that can be administered intravenously to treat influenza, the FDA issued an emergency use authorization on Oct. 23 to allow use of intravenous Peramivir, an investigational antiviral drug in the class of drugs known as neuraminidase inhibitors.

     

    The HHS orders for intravenous oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and intravenous zanamivir (Relenza), also neuraminidase inhibitors, are predicated on FDA emergency use authorization for these medications.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    6 Nov 2009, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A Guinea Pig and a Rat talking about swine flu .... LOL
    6 Nov 2009, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Just call me GP, LOL. I WAS referring to the CVM buy, but hey, I just had the pig shot yesterday (fine so far, but the day is not over), so it works on lots of levels.

     

    A final note about CVM: finance.yahoo.com/news...

     

    On Nov 06 05:48 PM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > A Guinea Pig and a Rat talking about swine flu .... LOL
    6 Nov 2009, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    OK, been studying things, and I am seeing a "Christmas Present" market shaping up - one that will be pumped up by the FED (and even the other league of semi-willing nations also maintaining low interest financial policy in concert with DC) through Christmas.

     

    IF the vote goes in favor of HellCare today, Monday will be reactionary, with winners and losers, though I am not able to get a clear shot at where this arrow will land among the Insurance industry, for instance. A LOT depends on the nature of the "public option", which is still unknowable (I fully expect Pelossi to drop a nuke amendment in there just before the vote, though).

     

    The likely scenario would be a quick shock to the market, followed by a reactive drop. How deep or how long that event will sustain, I do not know, and of course if the vote does NOT occur (or goes the other way, Pelossi does not have a very tight grip on reality over there), all bets are off.

     

    On the other major issue, Cap and Trade, the situation is less fuzzy, but more dire imo. I am now thinking that a critical vote on this will occur in the Senate early in 2010, probably before February, but it COULD happen even earlier, before Christmas.

     

    In both cases I see the ali-baba cave full of wondrous trillions of pork that Pelossi/Reid/Obama control buying the support they need to advance their agenda. Pelossi and Obama are true-believing zealots, while poor Reid is going to end up going along for the ride with some exotic payoff in his own back pocket from the pork mountain. Don't be shocked if he loses his seat next election, but is quickly appointed to some comfy slot in the Obama Administration.

     

    Pursuant to my idea, however, that a Christmas market may well occur, I have been doing a little research on high yield stocks (listed elsewhere in a general way on our Chat thread) with X-dates between now and early December:

     

    MAIN Main Street Capital 11.1% x-11-18-09

     

    OTT Otelco 12.7% x-12-11-09

     

    PNNT Pennant Park Invest. 12.1% x-12-3-09

     

    PDLI BioPharma 12.0% x-12-15-09

     

    ARCC Ares Capital 12.7% x-12-11-09

     

    I look at this as a very short term trade, centered around securing the dividends/distributions, and not based upon the same fundamentals I would look for in a long term investment. This is a raid, not a commitment.

     

    There are a lot of other high yield stocks with x-dates in late December and early January, but they do not fit the narrow time slot I am looking to work within.

     

    Overall, I am in agreement with those who see a strong chance for a correction after Christmas.

     

    I hope everyone enjoys a good week-end, you all richly deserve it in my book!
    7 Nov 2009, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    UPDATE: OK, some of the yield numbers for the 5 stocks were old, the new ones are below:

     

    MAIN 11.1% OTT 12.6% PDLI 12.0% PNNT 12.2% ARCC 12.7%

     

    I am adding:

     

    TICC Technology Investment Capital 11.7% x-12-8-09

     

    VGR Vector Group 10.9% x-12-16-09

     

    I am reviewing my notes and lists and anticipate pulling up several more candidates later today. I am also going to see which have formally Announced, which means of course that the rest are just "estimated".
    7 Nov 2009, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    TripleB: Linn Energy's (LINE) dividend is reliable. See below.

     

    finance.yahoo.com/q?s=...
    7 Nov 2009, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes, they are on my overall list. We just missed their X date, which was 11-4-09. 2-4-09 is outside the limit for the raid I am planning. I owned them until the end of last quarter. Thanks for taking an interest, Maya.

     

    I am adding:

     

    ANH Anworth Mortgage 16.0% x-11-18-09 (announced)

     

    AINV Apollo Invest. 12.0% x-12-15-09

     

    FTR Frontier Communications 13.7% x-12-7-09 (announced)

     

    I am also looking at GOOD Gladstone 11.0%, but my download for their key stats lists their x and div dates backwards (I think), I will track that one down, I THINK the announced x-date is 11-29.

     

    More later.

     

    On Nov 07 11:02 AM Mayascribe wrote:

     

    > TripleB: Linn Energy's (LINE) dividend is reliable. See below.<br/>
    >
    > finance.yahoo.com/q?s=...
    7 Nov 2009, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    TICC and MAIN have Announced their dividends, and I gauge the confidence level for dividends from VGR and OTT as "high".

     

    PDLI, PNNT and ARCC are still classed as "estimated" dividends/distributions in my review.

     

    LOL, NOTHING is certain in any of this, of course, we must all do our own DD as usual.
    7 Nov 2009, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Re-Cap:

     

    MAIN Main Street Capital 11.1% x-11-18-09, Announced

     

    OTT Otelco 12.7% x-12-11-09, Estimated (high confidence)

     

    PNNT Pennant Park Invest. 12.1% x-12-3-09, Estimated

     

    PDLI BioPharma 12.0% x-12-15-09, Estimated

     

    ARCC Ares Capital 12.7% x-12-11-09, Estimated

     

    ANH Anworth Mortgage 16.0% x-11-18-09, Announced

     

    AINV Apollo Invest. 12.0% x-12-15-09, Estimated

     

    FTR Frontier Communications 13.7% x-12-7-09, Announced

     

    TICC Technology Investment Capital 11.7% x-12-8-09, Announced

     

    VGR Vector Group 10.9% x-12-16-09, Estimated (high confidence)

     

    Note: This is a little wild, I went into this idea thinking I wanted to find 10 stocks, and using some pretty arbitrary guidelines, I have exactly that number.
    7 Nov 2009, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » triple, I absolutly love your statement:
    "This is a raid not a commitment"
    7 Nov 2009, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    LOL, thanks User.

     

    BTW, if I need to move this whole shebang somewhere else, no problems, I somehow fell like I am presuming on your hospitality here.

     

    SOME of these are pharma stocks, but most are not.

     

    As for (GOOD), turns out they are doing something a little different, monthly distributions of .125, Announced through Dec 31 09.

     

    On Nov 07 12:12 PM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > triple, I absolutly love your statement:
    > "This is a raid not a commitment"
    7 Nov 2009, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That's OK triple, there is always a welcome sign out here. I am a big fan of stream of coconsciousness - free flow of information… I would hate to see structure inhibit that. I summarize the SF materials in the top part of the Insta as we go along.
    7 Nov 2009, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 7) CEL-SCI (CVM) To Conduct First Clinical Study Of Investigational LEAPS-H1N1 Treatment For Hospitalized H1N1 Infected Patients

     

    CEL-SCI Corporation (CVM) announced today that an Institutional Review Board of The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine (Johns Hopkins) has given clearance for the Company's first clinical study to proceed.

     

    This initial study will involve taking blood from hospitalized, laboratory-confirmed H1N1 patients and activating their cells with the LEAPS H1N1 investigational therapy in order to assess the cells' response as the basis for the planned future treatment of this patient population under a next-stage clinical trial protocol.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    7 Nov 2009, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 7) Novartis Receives Regulatory Approval In Germany For Celtura®, A Cell Culture-based Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic Vaccine

     

    Novartis (NVS) announced that it received approval from the German regulatory authorities for its adjuvanted cell culture-based Influenza A(H1N1) 2009 mono-valent vaccine, Celtura®. Novartis continues to pursue registration in other major countries, including Japan and Switzerland.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    7 Nov 2009, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    More CVM news:

     

    vfcsstockhouse.blogspo...

     

    "This study was expected, as the company informed investors in September that the FDA had given Cel Sci the 'go-ahead', but what is significant, in my opinion, is the fact that Johns Hopkins has jumped on board. Johns Hopkins University is one of the nation's most prestigious - especially in terms of the School of Medicine. The fact that an "Institutional Review Board" of Johns Hopkins University gave the clearance for the this clinical study to proceed - with the Johns Hopkins name attached to it -should give sceptical investors a 'warm & fuzzy' that there is some significant potential for LEAPS to become an effective treatment for H1N1 patients."

     

    And recent presentation on their arthritis treatrment:

     

    CEL-SCI Presents Data at American College of Rheumatology Conference Which Suggests that CEL-2000 Has Potential to Slow Damage Caused by Rheumatoid Arthritis
    Monday October 19, 9:45 am ET
    Statistically Significant Results Support Approach Of Company's H1N1 Platform

     

    VIENNA, Va., Oct. 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- CEL-SCI Corporation (NYSE Amex: CVM) announced today the presentation of new rheumatoid arthritis data at the American College of Rheumatology's annual meeting in Philadelphia, PA. The data, presented by Dr. Daniel Zimmerman in conjunction with the Company's collaborators from Washington Biotech, Northeastern Ohio Universities College of Medicine and BolderBiopath, indicate that CEL-SCI's rheumatoid arthritis treatment vaccine CEL-2000 acts to prevent or retard the permanent tissue damage caused by rheumatoid arthritis in animals. These statistically significant results were demonstrated by the measurement of four different parameters, suggesting that CEL-2000 appears to block the immune response that causes the autoimmunity which leads to rheumatoid arthritis. The long term results obtained with fewer doses of CEL-2000 vaccine were comparable or better than those seen with Enbrel®, a leading treatment for people with rheumatoid arthritis.

     

    Geert Kersten, Chief Executive Officer of CEL-SCI said, "These results were achieved through a reduction of the inflammatory response that attacks the patient's joints. The goal for our new H1N1 therapy for H1N1 hospitalized patients is not dissimilar. Many of these patients die from the excessive inflammatory response. We feel that this new data is encouraging both for this rheumatoid arthritis vaccine as well as supportive of our H1N1 treatment."

     

    In these studies, mice were injected with collagen to induce the autoimmune disease. Therapy with Enbrel or CEL-2000 was initiated and continued for 28 days after the initiation of a significant, uniform, and measurable level of arthritic disease in groups of mice. CEL-2000 was administered only twice, but Enbrel was administered every other day for the first 28 days. The extent of disease, as indicated by deformation of foot joints (Arthritic Index (AI) score), of untreated, and CEL-2000 and Enbrel treated groups, was compared. In another study CEL-2000 was administered 5 times over a 70 day period and the animals were monitored for another 20 days for a total study period of 90 days. In each case, CEL-2000 treatment proved effective at blocking the progression of disease with statistically significant reduction in AI score compared to the appropriate controls and was safe and well tolerated without any adverse effects. The protection mediated by CEL-2000 treatment was also demonstrated histologically by significant reductions in 1) inflammation, 2) cartilage destruction 3) bone resorption, and 4) pannus membrane formation in the synovial space compared to untreated controls.

     

    The CEL-2000 treatment appeared to change the course of the immune response in the diseased and treated animals by limiting the development of a destructive Th17 and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) directed autoimmune response. Analysis of serum levels of 21 cytokines/chemokines indicated reductions in the characteristic cytokine markers of rheumatoid arthritis, TNF-alpha and IL-17, and also IL-6, and MCP-1. A number of cytokine changes were also seen with Enbrel treatment, but to a lesser degree.

     

    CEL-2000 may also offer a number of potential advantages over existing rheumatoid arthritis treatments, such as Enbrel. Data collected in the animal studies conducted with CEL-2000 demonstrated that CEL-2000 is an effective treatment against arthritis even with the administration of fewer treatments. CEL-2000 is also potentially a more disease-type specific therapy, should be significantly less expensive and finally, CEL-2000 could also be useful for patients who are not able to take or who may be unresponsive to existing anti-arthritis therapies.

     

    Rheumatoid arthritis treatments comprise a $13 billion market. Enbrel, a leading rheumatoid arthritis treatment sold by Amgen and Wyeth, reported US sales in 2007 of about $3.2 billion. Enbrel is a soluble recombinant protein of a human TNF-alpha receptor linked to human IgG Fc. In some cases, human or humanized monoclonal antibodies specific against TNF-alpha have also been used for therapy in rheumatoid arthritis. These therapies remove or inactivate TNF-alpha, a natural human cytokine required in many immune functions for normal defenses.

     

    CEL-SCI's rheumatoid arthritis vaccine CEL-2000 was discovered as part of work with the Company's ongoing research and development activities with its L.E.A.P.S.(TM) (Ligand Epitope Antigen Presentation System) technology. L.E.A.P.S. is a novel T-cell modulation platform technology that enables CEL-SCI to design and synthesize proprietary immunogens. Any disease for which an antigenic sequence has been identified, such as infectious, parasitic, malignant or autoimmune diseases and allergies, are potential therapeutic or preventive sites for the application of L.E.A.P.S. technology.

     

    The concept behind the L.E.A.P.S. technology is to directly mimic cell-cell interactions and activate immune cells with synthetic peptides. The L.E.A.P.S. constructs containing the antigenic disease epitope linked to a immune-cell binding ligand (ICBL) can be manufactured by peptide synthesis or by covalently linking the two peptides. Depending upon the type of L.E.A.P.S. construct and ICBL used, CEL-SCI is able to direct the outcome of the immune response towards the development of T-cell function with primarily effector T-cell functions (T Lymphocyte; helper/effector T lymphocyte, type 1 or 2 [Th1 or Th2], cytotoxic [Tc] or suppressor [Ts]). Therefore, it would appear that the L.E.A.P.S. construct represents a chimeric peptide with bi-functional behavior.

     

    Additional details on the presentation are available at acr.confex.com/acr/200...
    7 Nov 2009, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Backed up Nov 7 3:36pm Pacific.
    7 Nov 2009, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Where there is smoke there is usually fire…
    (November 7) H1N1: Many Parents, High-Priority Adults Unable To Get Vaccine

     

    A new national poll from Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) researchers found that a majority of adults who tried to get the H1N1 vaccine for themselves or their children have been unable to do so. The polling was done October 30 to November 1, 2009.

     

    Since the H1N1 flu vaccine became available in October, 17% of American adults, 41% of parents, and 21% of high-priority adults have tried to get it.

     

    Among adults who tried to get it for themselves, 70% were unable to get it. Among parents who tried to get the H1N1 vaccine for their children, 66% were unable to get it. Among high priority adults who tried to get the H1N1 vaccine, 66% were unable to get it.

     

    The poll also shows that some people were not able to find information about the location of available H1N1 flu vaccine. Approximately half who tried to find such information (49%) were unable to find it.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    8 Nov 2009, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This could have an impact on (APT) a manufacturer of N96 respirators future bottom line
    November 7) White House Urged To Modify 2009 H1N1 Guidance For Healthcare Workers And Issue Moratorium On OSHA Enforcement

     

    Three leading scientific organizations specializing in infectious diseases prevention issued a letter to President Obama expressing their significant concern with current federal guidance concerning the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) by healthcare workers in treating suspected or confirmed cases of 2009 H1N1 influenza.

     

    Federal PPE guidance and requirements issued recently by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and OSHA include the use of fit-tested N95 respirators by healthcare workers rather than the use of standard surgical masks. According to these organizations--represe... scientists, infectious disease specialists and healthcare professionals dedicated to healthcare quality, safety and infection control--this guidance does not reflect the best available scientific evidence. Their letter to the White House cited two recent studies demonstrating that the use of N95 respirators does not offer additional protection over that provided by the use of surgical masks.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    8 Nov 2009, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Ouch. Just wait until some of those folks get sick... And die. Its a statistical inevitability.

     

    This MIGHT even get the facts out that the U.S. is for the most part no longer in the standard vaccine business. Talk about a problem with "dependence on imports".

     

    WHO will the billionaire class action lawfirms sue, though? They killed off all their American prey already. I guess they could go after the HMOs and larger hospitals...

     

    I would think that there will come a time when shorting big health care might make sense, particularly given that Obamacare squeaked through the House last night... Odds are that this sort of news will push big pharma values down a bit, too, even though they are not particularly culpable. I wonder how this is going to play in the Markets come Monday morning?

     

    On Nov 08 08:37 AM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > Where there is smoke there is usually fire…
    > (November 7) H1N1: Many Parents, High-Priority Adults Unable To Get
    > Vaccine
    >
    > A new national poll from Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) researchers
    > found that a majority of adults who tried to get the H1N1 vaccine
    > for themselves or their children have been unable to do so. The polling
    > was done October 30 to November 1, 2009.
    >
    > Since the H1N1 flu vaccine became available in October, 17% of American
    > adults, 41% of parents, and 21% of high-priority adults have tried
    > to get it.
    >
    > Among adults who tried to get it for themselves, 70% were unable
    > to get it. Among parents who tried to get the H1N1 vaccine for their
    > children, 66% were unable to get it. Among high priority adults who
    > tried to get the H1N1 vaccine, 66% were unable to get it.
    >
    > The poll also shows that some people were not able to find information
    > about the location of available H1N1 flu vaccine. Approximately half
    > who tried to find such information (49%) were unable to find it.
    >
    >
    > www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    8 Nov 2009, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Final update for the week for CVM:

     

    CVM is at 1.24 in afterhours trading.

     

    Nov 06, 2009 (BAYSTREET NEWSWIRE via COMTEX) -- BioMedReports.Com, is reporting that one of several expected key news developments has been announced by CEL-SCI Corporation (NYSE Amex: CVM), today. An Institutional Review Board of The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine (Johns Hopkins) has given clearance for the Company's first clinical study involving the much talked about L.E.A.P.S.a?? H1N1 investigational therapy.

     

    Johns Hopkins will host the study, which will be led by Principal Investigator Jonathan M. Zenilman, MD, Professor of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Chief of Infectious Diseases Division, Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical Center. As previously announced, this initial study will involve taking blood from hospitalized, laboratory-confirmed H1N1 patients and activating their cells with the LEAPS H1N1 investigational therapy in order to assess the cells' response as the basis for the planned future treatment of this patient population under a next-stage clinical trial protocol.

     

    The initiation of CEL-SCI's rapidly-accelerated LEAPS-H1N1 clinical development program builds on CEL-SCI's pioneering work with its L.E.A.P.S.a?? technology in the context of H1N1. As previously discussed in this space by Dr. Daniel Zimmerman, inventor of the L.E.A.P.S.a?? technology, the technology allows the Company to direct an immune response against specific disease epitopes. The technology's reach will go beyond the H1N1 space, into fields of treatment like rheumatoid arthritis since those responses can be designed to be directed at a great number of human diseases.

     

    In the case of CEL-SCI's investigational LEAPS-H1N1 treatment, this involves non-changing regions of the H1N1 Pandemic Flu as well as the Avian Flu (H5N1), and the Spanish Flu.

     

    "We are pleased that such a prestigious medical center has given clearance to proceed with this first study of our LEAPS-H1N1 treatment," said Geert Kersten, CEL-SCI's Chief Executive Officer. "Given the nature and severity of the virus, we are working diligently with our CRO and Johns Hopkins, and actively preparing submissions to the FDA, to support the fastest and most effective way to conduct clinical trials going forward for this unique investigational treatment."

     

    In September, the company announced that the FDA had indicated that they could commence this study and scientists at the company have been working hard on various aspects of what is expected to be the first of several upcoming expedited steps to get this treatment authorized and out to those hospitalized patients who desperately need it.

     

    In order for FDA to fully consider a next-stage clinical trial to evaluate LEAPS-H1N1 treatment of hospitalized patients with laboratory-confirmed H1N1 Pandemic Flu under an Exploratory IND, FDA has asked CEL-SCI to submit a detailed follow-up regulatory filing with extensive additional data.

     

    President Obama's national emergency declaration due to the H1N1 pandemic gave Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius the authority to bypass federal rules in order to get treatments like this one to patients who may need them. Most recently, the FDA announced emergency use authorization for BioCryst's intravenous peramivir, an investigational antiviral drug, for use in adult and pediatric patients, even though the drug had not completed all of the normal steps required for approval. In fact, the drug is not technically yet approved by the FDA. Emergency use authorization for the product will last until the emergency declaration is terminated or until the FDA revokes the privilege.

     

    "Many millions" of Americans have had swine flu so far, according to CDC Director Dr. Thomas Frieden and the number is growing, causing many hospitals to overflow with sick patients. "Vaccine production is much less predictable then we wish. We are nowhere near where we thought we'd be by now," Friedan said. "As public health professionals, vaccination is our strongest tool. Not having enough of it is frustrating to all of us."

     

    As reported months ago, the growing pandemic of H1N1 has had members of the Obama administration working behind the scenes for months trying to keep the problem from cripling an already fragile economy.

     

    Investors, who have sent the stock price up on the news, apparently also view the news as a much needed credibility boost in light of recent attacks by a single columnist. Company lawyers are reportedly "taking steps to correct the misleading attacks designed to help short the stock each time positive news is announced."

     

    Despite those attacks, shares of the company have risen dramatically in the past few months and that trend is expected to continue as the company moves forward on several fronts, including a pending launch of Phase III trials for MultikineA?, CEL-SCI's flagship cancer immunotherapeutic agent, which is being developed as a first-line standard of care cancer treatment.

     

    This news has made the company the biotech sector's intraday top performer as of the time of this publication:

     

    Industry Top Performers
    8 Nov 2009, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (October 28) Pay close attention to CEL SCI (CVM) in the next two weeks... - Dimitrije

     

    CEL SCI scientists have a large portion of speaking time unlike at the ACR convention where they were one amongst hundreds. In attendance will be Industry leaders, academic and government organizations, and the financial community.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    8 Nov 2009, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 8) D.C. Vaccine Conference Will Attract Government Policy Makers and Biotech Innovators - FROM: M.E. Garza's Instablog

     

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, the 7th Annual Vaccines: All Things Considered Conference is taking place in Washington, DC.

     

    Investors should keep an eye on this event, which serves as a one-stop destination for valuable updates and exposure on all aspects of vaccine research, development, regulations, and policy via key, intimate presentations by innovative biotech companies and government regulators. Organizers aim to provide exposure to all avenues of vaccine research, development, regulations and policy and updates on the flu pandemic, bio-defense policy.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    8 Nov 2009, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I also took note that several blogs on CVM mentioned the odd timing of their good news release (Friday) which would normally be done much earlier in a week (say, Monday) so that the effect could run for a while. Timing it on a Friday was unusual...

     

    Unless they had further positive news headlines coming early next week, which might well be what is anticipated at the GTC convention, or from other events as yet unknown.

     

    This is just speculative imo, but we will soon see starting tomorrow.

     

    Now I wish I had bought more Friday. Maybe Monday will show a dip because of the Obamacare Bill passing the house...

     

    biomedreports.com/arti...

     

    On Nov 08 11:26 AM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > (October 28) Pay close attention to CEL SCI (CVM) in the next two
    > weeks... - Dimitrije
    >
    > CEL SCI scientists have a large portion of speaking time unlike at
    > the ACR convention where they were one amongst hundreds. In attendance
    > will be Industry leaders, academic and government organizations,
    > and the financial community.
    >
    > seekingalpha.com/insta...
    8 Nov 2009, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Pre-market at $1.32. Monday morning brings the first of an expected number of news bits about CVM
    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    9 Nov 2009, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    CVM at 1.44 right now, with this news:

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    9 Nov 2009, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Upgrade for R/R, which spills a little over on CVM as a client:

     

    www.fool.com/investing...
    9 Nov 2009, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Briefing.com has this to say:

     

    9:41AM CEL-SCI Corp collaborators present data suggesting that LEAPS Technology has ability to modify immune response (CVM) 1.35 +0.12 : Co announced that collaborators reported on work conducted in collaboration with scientists at the Cleveland Clinic and CEL-SCI on CEL-SCI's LEAPS vaccine technology. The studies show that LEAPS peptide immunogens can convert precursor cells from mouse or humans to become dendritic cells, the cell that directs the subsequent immune response. These DCs produce interleukin 12 (IL12p70), but without production of the pro-inflammatory cytokines that promote symptoms of a cytokine storm, such as tumor necrosis factor alpha or interleukin 1. Immunization with a LEAPS-immunogen for herpes simplex virus activates a protective T cell immune response against the virus in mice while a LEAPS-immunogen for treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (CEL-2000) reduces the production of the pro-inflammatory cytokines to block the progression of disease in mouse models of rheumatoid arthritis.
    9 Nov 2009, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    User: Thanks for the reminder. More than ever, it's time to pay close attention to your fabulous work, as well as what Garza has to say.
    9 Nov 2009, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    No question about it!

     

    On Nov 09 10:40 AM Mayascribe wrote:

     

    > User: Thanks for the reminder. More than ever, it's time to pay close
    > attention to your fabulous work, as well as what Garza has to say.
    9 Nov 2009, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Perhaps a useful resource for businesses.

     

    (November 9) The Business Resource For H1N1
    Preparis, Inc. today associated the rapid spread of H1N1 pandemic to the high percentage of companies that are not doing enough to prevent its spread in the workplace.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...

     

    Preparis helps businesses prepare for any threat, including pandemics, terrorism and natural disasters, by delivering services and information to desktops and mobile devices. H1N1 Central is unique in that it is a free, centralized resource featuring information and tools that focus specifically on what businesses need to know and do in order to protect their companies and workforce.
    www.preparis.com/swineflu/
    9 Nov 2009, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
     
    VICAL: Press release of presentation summarizing how VICAL was first to develop against H1N1, how great it is. Nothing substantive or new, just publicity release.

     

    ir.vical.com/releasede...

     

    HardToLove
    10 Nov 2009, 06:47 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » NVAX is not just an H1N1 play - its also a seasonal flu play

     

    (November 10) Novavax Begins Phase IIa Study of Seasonal Influenza Vaccine in Older Adults

     

    Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) has begun a Phase IIa clinical study of its trivalent seasonal influenza VLP vaccine candidate in healthy adults 60 years of age or older. (Ed: Note this is seasonal flu, not H1N1).

     

    According to Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and Chief Executive Officer of Novavax, "This is a very important study because it will help establish the safety and immunogenicity of our trivalent seasonal influenza VLP vaccine in older adults and allow us to select a dose for a future Phase IIb confirmatory, non-inferiority clinical trial in this population. Moreover, it will also give us a clear signal of how our seasonal influenza VLP vaccine compares to the current standard of care, TIV (Fluzone®)."

     

    This study augments a recent Phase II study in healthy adults ranging in ages from 18-49 years which showed that NVAXs seasonal influenza VLP vaccine was safe and immunogenic at 15 and 60 mcg dose levels.

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    10 Nov 2009, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » More business for (SVA) ?
    (November 10) H1N1 Cases Increase In China, Japan; Afghanistan Attempts To Contain Virus

     

    The WHO on Friday reported on a rising number of H1N1 (swine flu) cases in China and Japan, Reuters/Washington Post reports. "In China, after an earlier wave of mixed influenza activity (seasonal H3N2 and pandemic H1N1), pandemic H1N1 influenza activity now predominates and is increasing," the agency said. "Sharp increases in pandemic flu infections continue to be reported throughout Japan, particularly on the northern island," the news service writes (Nebehay, 11/6).

     

    VOA News (www.irinnews.org/Repor...) reports on the decision by the Afghan government to suspend the country's schools and universities "for most of November in response to an increased number of H1N1 flu cases" (Maroney, 11/8).

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    10 Nov 2009, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 10) UAE Hajj pilgrims must have swine flu vaccination

     

    The United Arab Emirates has said everyone going on the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia must be vaccinated against swine flu before leaving the country.

     

    "We have decided to make it mandatory for the Hajj pilgrims to take the swine flu vaccine in order to protect them, protect their families and protect all those around them," Mahmoud Fikri, chairman of the National Committee for Combatting Swine Flu, was quoted as saying by The National.

     

    This year's Hajj, in the last week of November, will see some three million pilgrims descend on the Muslim holy city of Mecca, including around a million from within Saudi Arabia itself. Pilgrims must be able to present a yellow International Certificate of Vaccination in order to make the pilgrimage, the paper added.

     

    news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2...
    10 Nov 2009, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    So, who'd UAE buy their vaccine from? Just curious.
    10 Nov 2009, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I wondered about that too... I belive it was GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), but its possible that SVA might be involved too. The article seems to imply that UAE is going to provide the 3M doses. I don't think that is the case since you will need the yellow International Certificate of Vaccination in order to make the pilgrimage (Enter the UAE). So I think UAE needs 1M doses for their own country members that will make the pilgrimage.

     

    When is hilal?
    The exact dates of Islamic holidays cannot be determined in advance, due to the nature of the Islamic lunar calendar. Estimates are based on expected visibility of the hilal (waxing crescent moon following a new moon) and may vary according to location.

     

    Hajj is expected to fall between November 25-30, 2009.

     

    I could not find any reports that the UAE actually has 1M doses of vaccine on hand. If they don't......
    10 Nov 2009, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please note that I have identified a new at risk group of individuals for H1N1... Its up in the top part of the concentrator under the web site table.
    10 Nov 2009, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pan-Influenza Drug Play

     

    NanoViricides, Inc. (NNVC) To Present Anti-Influenza Drug Candidate FluCide™ Studies At The Influenza Congress 2009

     

    NanoViricides, Inc. announced that the Company's CEO, Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, has been invited to participate in a panel discussion at the Influenza Congress USA 2009, in Washington DC on November 19th.

     

    Dr. Seymour will review the Company's recent in vivo studies against influenza. The success of these studies has led the Company to consolidate its anti-influenza drug programs into a single, pan-influenza drug, "FluCide™". This single drug is expected to be highly effective against all forms of influenza A, including the recent "swine flu" 2009/CA/H1N1 strain, seasonal flu strains, as well as H5N1 bird flu strains feared to be capable of creating a devastating pandemic, and other highly pathogenic strains on the horizon.

     

    A "pan-influenza" drug is widely sought in order to enable treating infections from novel influenza viruses. New influenza viruses are often generated by mixing of genetic material from existing influenza viruses, known as "reassortments". Such changes can lead to a novel virus that is capable of causing a wide-spread pandemic accompanied by a high fatality rate. In addition, mutations are known to have led to influenza strains resistant to existing anti-influenza drugs. The Company believes that FluCide is designed to minimize the possibility of resistant mutations.

     

    This conference is designed to bring together key stakeholders from the pharmaceutical and biotech industries, as well as governmental science and regulatory segments to discuss appropriate responses to the evolving influenza pandemic, according to the organizers.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    11 Nov 2009, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Interesting company you spotted, User. Good going. (NNVC) is another baby pharma, and look at that, they are not just looking at the flu, but going after the big target, HIV.

     

    CVM is dropping the last few days, and I have set a stop at $1.18. I think that as with most of these small companies, no news is bad news for their stock price.
    11 Nov 2009, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Right triple... they don't have products at this point, they have promise/ potentia
    11 Nov 2009, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 11) NOVAVAX (NVAX) to Present at the Influenza Congress USA 2009

     

    About the Influenza Congress USA 2009:
    Influenza Congress USA is an annual influenza conference addressing every aspect of influenza policy and planning, influenza research, development and stakeholder partnerships. The influenza vaccine is the fastest growing segment in the adult vaccine market and the United States accounts for over 50% of the global vaccine market. Annually, more than 3.5 million people die of influenza. By 2016, this market is expected to grow to $4.4 billion. H1N1 remains the most immediate threat.

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    11 Nov 2009, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » An interesting read - check out Garza's article on SA, link below.

     

    (November 12) Why Has Cel-Sci Quietly Amended Some Previously Filed Paperwork? - M.E. Garza.

     

    After the market closed on Tuesday, investors learned that the company had filed an "amended" Form S-3 with the SEC. The form appears to be part of a $30 million bump to a previously filed "shelf offering" that had just been filed with the SEC two weeks ago, on October 30th.

     

    In that original filing, the company had disclosed that they were looking to raise only $10 million. The total now is $40 million. Was there a miscalculation? OR perhaps something unforeseen occured at the recent vaccine conference in D.C.?

     

    (ed: the company appears to have cash on hand, why increase the shelf by 30M? What is that for?)

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    12 Nov 2009, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    finance.yahoo.com/news..., I was just looking at this article. I think that they got some folks at the conference who wanted "in", and made the amendment. Otherwise, the coincidence is pretty unlikely. I see this as positive, and as for what they might want with the money...

     

    Their Stage III trials for Multikine will cost a lot, I bet, and so would expanding their new factory.

     

    On Nov 12 09:02 AM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > An interesting read - check out Garza's article on SA, link below.
    >
    >
    > (November 12) Why Has Cel-Sci Quietly Amended Some Previously Filed
    > Paperwork? - M.E. Garza.
    >
    > After the market closed on Tuesday, investors learned that the company
    > had filed an "amended" Form S-3 with the SEC. The form appears to
    > be part of a $30 million bump to a previously filed "shelf offering"
    > that had just been filed with the SEC two weeks ago, on October 30th.
    >
    >
    > In that original filing, the company had disclosed that they were
    > looking to raise only $10 million. The total now is $40 million.
    > Was there a miscalculation? OR perhaps something unforeseen occured
    > at the recent vaccine conference in D.C.?
    >
    > (ed: the company appears to have cash on hand, why increase the shelf
    > by 30M? What is that for?)
    >
    > seekingalpha.com/artic...
    12 Nov 2009, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Pre-market is up to $1.39. I'm glad I didn't stop out yesterday, though it was real close! Make that $1.40. Climbing fast. Interesting development, here...
    12 Nov 2009, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 12) Pandemic 2009 Influenza Update: US FDA Approves GSK's Pandemic H1N1 Vaccine.

     

    GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced that the US Food and Drug Administration has approved a supplemental biologics license application for its un-adjuvanted influenza A (H1N1) pandemic vaccine.

     

    The United States Department of Health and Human Services has placed an order to fill 7.6 million doses of un-adjuvanted H1N1 pandemic vaccine from GSK, which will contribute to the approximately 250 million doses secured by the US government. The vaccine will be produced in multi-dose vials from bulk vaccine manufactured at GSK's facility in Quebec, Canada. GSK expects to begin shipping vaccine in December and to provide all 7.6 million doses by the end of the year.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    12 Nov 2009, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Takeaway here - people with lung problems can get into trouble quickly. She got the flu from her child that got the flu at school. Her husband also got the flu... A good read.

     

    (November 12) My 10-Day Ordeal With the Swine Flu
    Reporter recounts her bout with H1N1, made all the worse by chronic asthma By Serena Gordon

     

    www.healthday.com/Arti...
    12 Nov 2009, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19441) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Eyes open for ...

     

    EDIT 11:55 - Forgot Accum/distr strongly negative at -98.xx, lowest on 200 hundred day chart.
    END EDIT 11:55

     

    Folks, nothing earth-shattering here, just a little chart work. NVAX seems to be rolling over, slowly. A little consolidation and then a little down trend. Looking for first support around $3.80, but only one recent bounce off that, so I think it will be weak. The way it looks, we might see it touch the $3.60-$3.65 again, which seems to be fairly strong support in recent history.

     

    All sans a catalyst, of course.

     

    I wanted to bring this up only as a possible add point, if it occurs (and we'll have to watch the charts then to see if that is supported or not) and/or a good point to take profits on any covered calls you might have written or puts you bought. My Jan $6.00 strike covered calls are nicely profitable for me right here, but I expect in the next couple of weeks to see NVAX approach to $3.80 and/or $3.65 make them even more so.

     

    With time-decay and an expected share price down to those two levels, it would be a good time to close those calls, locking in profits. This of course depends a lot on if we think a turn up is in the offing, so we could write calls again at a higher premium or another strike price/month.

     

    Summary of charts factors that make me think this way: recent resistance at ~$4.05 hit 5 times in last 10 days, generally rising triangle indicating a break down is likely, trading below 20/50/100 SMA indicating sentiment has weakened, RSI/MFI both turning below neutral, MACD flattening out just below neutral, it looks like Stochastic crossing down today, volume on up days has been anemic (and down days too).

     

    HardToLove
    12 Nov 2009, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Excellent HT.... If it hits 3.76 I will be buying some more.
    12 Nov 2009, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    More than 3 million people die every year from the flu - I was almost one of them.

     

    On Nov 12 11:05 AM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > Takeaway here - people with lung problems can get into trouble quickly.
    > She got the flu from her child that got the flu at school. Her husband
    > also got the flu... A good read.
    >
    > (November 12) My 10-Day Ordeal With the Swine Flu
    > Reporter recounts her bout with H1N1, made all the worse by chronic
    > asthma By Serena Gordon
    >
    > www.healthday.com/Arti...
    12 Nov 2009, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Be careful out there!
    (November 3) Swine flu not just a threat to young: study

     

    Public health researchers analyzed California's first 1,088 hospitalized and fatal cases of H1N1 infection between April 23 and August 1.

     

    "What our study shows was that once you were hospitalized, if you were elderly you have a higher risk of dying," Dr. Janice Louie of the California Department of Public Health in Richmond, whose study appears in the Journal of the American Medical Association - JAMA.

     

    NOT A MILD DISEASE
    "One of the perceptions we've been trying to dispel is that this is a mild disease," she said in a telephone interview. "This can be very severe. In this paper, 30 percent of patients required intensive care." Overall, 11 percent of people who were hospitalized died, but among people 50 and older, 18 to 20 percent died.

     

    (ed: it appears the elderly are less likely to get it, but if they do get it the flu could combine with pre-existing conditions).

     

    www.reuters.com/articl...
    12 Nov 2009, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    CDC: H1N1 count up to 22 million:

     

    www.usatoday.com/news/...
    12 Nov 2009, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Backed up Nov 12 as of 4:55 pm Pacific
    12 Nov 2009, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 13) Role Of Statins In Reducing H1N1 Mortality Rates Studied

     

    Vanderbilt University Medical Center researchers are studying statins, the class of drugs long associated with lowering cholesterol, as a way to reduce H1N1-related deaths.

     

    Gordon Bernard, M.D., associate vice-chancellor for Research at Vanderbilt and a critical care pulmonologist, believes statins may reduce flu-related deaths in the intensive care unit by as much as half.

     

    "We know from studying infections that it's not always the bacteria that will kill you, but your own reaction to the bacteria can deal a lethal blow. We're learning that statins have an impact on the immune system and can dampen down that deleterious component of the immune response".
    13 Nov 2009, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 12) Swine flu means worst flu season in 12 years in US

     

    "Nationwide, the percentage of visits to health-care providers for influenza-like illness was higher than that observed at the peak of any seasonal influenza season since ILINet (the CDC's reporting system) was implemented in its current form in 1997," the report reads.

     

    The CDC said doctors need to treat cases of severe flu quickly with antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu, made by Roche AG (ROG), Relenza, made by GlasxoSmithKline (GSK) or for severe hospitalized cases, peramivir, made by BioCryst (BCRX).

     

    www.reuters.com/articl...
    13 Nov 2009, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Sinovac linked to two deaths in China- two people died that were vaccinated, so price fell. Then a few minutes later another newsline comes out and says, no, not attributable to the vaccine. I am so pissed. I got out of my long position w/ calls for $90.00+-.
    13 Nov 2009, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Rats OG! I was wondering why the price was dropping… SVA reports their financials on Monday, and I believe they will report good performance. I was buying again today on the dip.

     

    Could that false report have been deliberately planted?
    13 Nov 2009, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    OG: Bummer!
    13 Nov 2009, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    12 Mil Chinese were vaccinated. 2 died, not related. Sounds good for Monday, doesn't it?
    13 Nov 2009, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    don't know.

     

    On Nov 13 02:13 PM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > Rats OG! I was wondering why the price was dropping… SVA reports
    > their financials on Monday, and I believe they will report good performance.
    > I was buying again today on the dip.
    >
    > Could that false report have been deliberately planted?
    13 Nov 2009, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    More stuff happening with SVA:
    xml.10kwizard.com/fili...
    xml.10kwizard.com/fili...

     

    What are they doing?
    13 Nov 2009, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OG, I think that's related to the following…

     

    Beijing – November 3, 2009 – Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (NYSE Amex: SVA), a leading developer and provider of vaccines in China, announced today that it will voluntarily transfer its stock exchange listing from the NYSE Amex to the NASDAQ Global Market.
    13 Nov 2009, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    thanks!

     

    On Nov 13 02:56 PM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > OG, I think that's related to the following…
    >
    > Beijing – November 3, 2009 – Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (NYSE Amex: SVA),
    > a leading developer and provider of vaccines in China, announced
    > today that it will voluntarily transfer its stock exchange listing
    > from the NYSE Amex to the NASDAQ Global Market.
    13 Nov 2009, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Backed up November 13 as of 2:28 Pacific
    13 Nov 2009, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please use The Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 4.
    13 Nov 2009, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • STDnoob
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the information..It was very helpful!
    26 Feb 2010, 12:08 AM Reply Like
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