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  • Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 13 - 28 Part 4) 85 comments
    Nov 13, 2009 6:04 PM | about stocks: APT, BAX, BCRX, BDX, CBM, CLX, CVM, DGX, ECL, HOLX, GSK, INO, MMM, NVAX, NVS, PURE, ROG, SVA, VICL
    Explanation:

    I will post Swine-Flu and related articles under this heading.  The top of the instablog will contain my current months links  preceded with a one or two liner that explains the link.  A more complete summary of the link will be in the comments area.  At the bottom of the Instablog we have definition of terms, a summary of Swine Flu / vaccine investment plays, the 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map, Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu, and Memory Alpha which contains links to previous news concentrators and authors articles on the subject.

    I will be backing this up frequently as well.
    Last backup:   November 28 as of 1:54 Pacific

    _____________________

    Update History:
    Added Overview of H1N1 / Categories of Vaccine Investment Plays Added Memory Alpha
    Added Link to Google's Swine Flu Infection Map
    Added Red Cross Tips for Dealing With The Flu
    Added definition of EUA and PREP act
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into two parts for October
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into three parts for October
    Added Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 1
    Bolded References to Older Swine Flu Concentrators in Memory Alpha
    Expanded the list of stocks discussed in the tags
    Alphabetized stocks in the tags
    Updated the play by stock list
    Added a table that contains the web site addresses for the companies discussed
    _____________________
    November Links:

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 15 -  13   Part 3)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    (November 13) Role Of Statins In Reducing H1N1 Mortality Rates Studied - User 283977
    www.physorg.com/news177329653.html

    (November 12) Pandemic 2009 Influenza Update: US FDA Approves GSK's Pandemic H1N1 Vaccine - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/170691.php

    (November 10) H1N1 Cases Increase In China, Japan; Afghanistan Attempts To Contain Virus - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/170401.php

    (November 8) D.C. Vaccine Conference Will Attract Government Policy Makers and Biotech Innovators - FROM: M.E. Garza's Instablog
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/424698-m-e-ga...

    (November 7) CEL-SCI (NYSEMKT:CVM) To Conduct First Clinical Study Of Investigational LEAPS-H1N1 Treatment For Hospitalized H1N1 Infected Patients - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/170190.php

    (November 6) HHS Orders Intravenous Antiviral Flu Medication To Help Patients Hospitalized With 2009 H1N1 - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/170140.php

    (November 5) MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season - User 283977
    www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...

    (November 5) Merriman Curhan Ford initiates coverage on Novavax (Nasdaq: NVAX) with a Buy rating and $6-$8 price target range. - H.T. Love
    Sorry - link will not copy

    (November 5) Analysis Of Data From Japan Suggests A Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php

    (November 5) Today BioCryst (NASDAQ:BCRX) received its first government order for 10,000 courses of peramivir with a hefty $22.5 million price tag -- more than $2,000 per course. - User 283977
    finance.yahoo.com/news/The-2000-Swine-Fl...

    (November 5) H1N1 Masks Boost Firm
    Alpha Pro Tech (NYSEMKT:APT) is considering the addition of new N95 manufacturing lines, each capable of contributing $9 million in annual revenue. The company speculated that the H1N1 pandemic could last two to five years, which bodes well for an acceleration of its sales momentum through at least 2010. - User 283977
    Sorry - link will not copy

    (November 5) Novartis Cell-Based H1N1 Vaccine Gets German OK
    Swiss drug maker Novartis (NYSE:NVS) Thursday said it received regulatory approval to sell its cell-based swine flue vaccine in Germany, Making an important milestone in gaining acceptance for newer rapid ways of producing vaccines.
    Novartis is close to completing a second cell culture-based influenza vaccine manufacturing site in the U.S., which is being built in partnership with the US Department of Health and Human Services. - User 283977
    //smartmoney.com/breaking-news/on/?story=O...

    (November 3) - CDC will stick with "tried and true" methods for flu vaccine production - M.E. Garza's Instablog
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/424698-m-e-ga...

    (November 3) - CEL-SCI (CVM) is working on a technology that effectively attacks a virus even after it attempts to mutate to another form.  A brief explanation is provided in this concentrator. More complete info is in the link - tripleback.
    biomedreports.com/articles/most-popular/...

    (November 1) A quick overview concerning the issue of Mercury (specifically Thimerosal) in H1N1 vaccines. The second link tells us that if the presence of Thimerosal raises concerns, it may be possible to find Single-dose syringes of H1N1 vaccine which are thimerosal-free.  User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169364.php
    www.physorg.com/news172252051.html


    ___________________
    Some Definitions:

    Swine Flu - Novel H1N1 flu, popularly known as swine flu, is a respiratory infection caused by an influenza virus first recognized in spring 2009. The new virus, which is officially called swine influenza A (H1N1), contains genetic material from human, swine and avian flu viruses. (By Mayo Clinic staff)

    Pandemic - The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people.

    A World Health Organization phase 6 pandemic indicates that influenza due to the novel H1N1 swine flu is occurring in multiple countries around the world and that human infection is widespread. The classification does not reflect the severity of individual infections.

    Cytokine Storm -
    When our body detects foreign micro-organisms indicating an infection, our body might respond by over-protecting the site of infection. The body may race so many antibodies to the infection site that they collect in what is known as a cytokine storm.

    A cytokine storm, or "Hypercytokinemia" is a potentially fatal immune reaction consisting of a positive feedback loop between cytokines and immune cells.
    www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-st...

    A positive feedback loop means that as something increases, that increase stimulates further growth.

    What makes younger people more susceptible to H1N1 is that their “vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs.

    This vulnerability in the young is reminiscent of the Spanish flu of 1918. That strain of flu also struck mostly healthy young adults.

    Pulmonary Embolism - Occurs when a blood clot forms in an arm or leg breaks free and enters the lungs where it is too large to pass through the small vessels of the lungs and forms a blockage. This stops blood from flowing into an area of the lung, and the part of the lung dies because it does not receive oxygen.
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/153796.php

    What is an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?
    An EUA may be issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow either the use of an unapproved medical product or an unapproved use of an approved medical product during certain types of emergencies with specified agents.

    What is the PREP Act?
    The PREP Act authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (“Secretary”) to issue a declaration (“PREP Act declaration”) that provides immunity from tort liability (except for willfull misconduct) for claims of loss caused, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats and conditions determined by the Secretary to constitute a present, or credible risk of a future public health emergency to entities and individuals involved in the development, manufacture, testing, distribution, administration, and use of such countermeasures.

    The PREP Act also authorizes an emergency fund in the United States Treasury to provide compensation for injuries directly caused by administration or use of a countermeasure covered by the Secretary’s declaration. While no funds have been appropriated for this purpose, if funds are appropriated, compensation may then be available for medical benefits, lost wages and death benefits to individuals for specified injuries.
    cdc.gov/h1n1flu/eua/qa.htm

    Why Slow Production:
    One dose of swine flu vaccine for every two eggs, compared with two doses of seasonal flu vaccine per egg
    http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/10/22/quest_for_swine_flu_vaccine_giving_some_firms_a_boost/

    _____________________
    Brief Overview of Categories of H1N1/ Vaccine Investment Plays:

    I - Vaccines / Prevention
    1) Production Method / Capacity plays (NVAX) (NASDAQ:VICL) (NVS) (NASDAQ:INO)
    2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play (NASDAQ:SVA)
    3) Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) (NYSE:BAX) (NYSE:BDX)
    4) Outsourced production plays
    5) Bio -Defence (OTC:MDCGF)
    6) Anti-Mutation / Pan-Influenza Play (CVM) (NYSEMKT:NNVC) (INO)
    7) Universal Flu Vaccine Play (INO)

    II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
    1) Dealing with severe lung infections (Fludase® (DAS181)) (NYSE:CBM) (OTCQB:AEMD)
    2) ICU treatments (BCRX) (NYSE:GSK) (NYSE:ROG)
    III - Population Avoidance:
    1) masks/ disinfectants… Surgical masks are good enough (APT) (NYSE:MMM) (NYSE:CLX) (NYSE:ECL) (OTCQB:PURE)

    IV - Testing do you have it? (NASDAQ:GPRO)
    1) Test kits - (NYSE:DGX)

    V - Merger / Acquisitions / Licensing (VICL) (NVAX)
    _____________________
    Sorry this is still a graphic instead of a table. I played with the table tool, but its a
    PITA to work with.

    Swine Flu Companies Discussed and Their Web Sites


    _____________________
    Swine Flu Hits Stuffed Animal World:



    2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map:
    The Link is from DoubleGuns
    flutracker.rhizalabs.com/

    I am not too happy with any of the outbreak maps. They all make the same mistake, they try to show the worlds data on one chart. This makes them SLOW.
    I will keep looking for one that works faster.
    _____________________

    Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu:

    IF YOU ARE ILL -
    * Stay in a room separate from common areas of the home and avoid contact with others as much as possible.

    * Stay at home for at least 24 hours after their fever is gone without using medicine to reduce the fever.

    * Get lots of rest and drink plenty of fluids.

    * Consider wearing a facemask, if available and tolerable, when sharing common spaces with household members. (ed - surgical masks ok).

    * Check with your healthcare provider about whether to take antiviral medication, or if fever persists, whether antibiotics are needed.

    WHEN CARING FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS THE FLU -
    *Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces that everyone touches.

    * Use detergent and very hot water to do dishes and wash clothes. It's okay to wash everyone's dishes and clothes together. Wash your hands after handling dirty laundry.

    * Designate only one adult as the caregiver. People at increased risk of severe illness from the flu should not be caregivers.

    * Although not mentioned by the Red Cross, the caregiver should probably ware a surgical mask as well when entering the sick room.

    * Deal with crisis situations calmly and confidently to give the best support to the person being cared for.
    _____________________

    MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season

    Click here to link to the Mayo tool:
    www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...

    _____________________
    Suggeted Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php

    After comparing more than two dozen possible scenarios for closing a school, the analysis suggested three optimal scenarios:

    1. A single-day influenza-related absentee rate of 5 percent

    2. Absenteeism of 4 percent or more on two consecutive days

    3. Absenteeism of 3 percent or more on three consecutive days



    MEMORY ALPHA:
    Identifies key writers and comment streams / instablog's that regularly discuss the subject area. The previous concentrators are bolded.

    This will be updated monthly. The latest articles are at the top of the list. The past summary concentrators are bolded so they stand out.

    I am going to be improving the Memory Alpha Concept soon...

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 15 -  13   Part 3)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...


    Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 2009 - Part 1)
    Contains detail Swine Flu News and Comments from the first part of November (1 - 4)

    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (October 2009 - Part 3)
    Contains detail Swine Flu News and Comments from the second part of October (25 - 29)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    (October 28) Overview of presentations at the 7th Annual Vaccines: “All Things Considered”  conference to be held in Washington, D.C. on Nov 9-10, 2009. This conference promises to be the one-stop destination for valuable updates and exposure on all aspects of vaccine research, development, regulations, and policy.- Mayascribe
    gtcbio.com/userAgenda.aspx?id=166

    (October 26) - Good summary of recent events - optionsgirl
    Swine flu: Who's winning and losing in the H1N1 virus pandemic?
    dailyfinance.com/bloggers/melly-alazraki/

    (October 26) - The 8th annual Bio Investor Forum meets in San Francisco this week, October 28-29. Here is a link to a list of companies making presentations - User 283977
    investorforum.bio.org/opencms/bif/2009/c...

    October 25 - Swine Flu Concentrator (October Part 2)
    Contains detail Swine Flu News and Comments from the second part of October (20 - 24)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    (October 22)  Aethlon (OTCQB:AEMD) surfaced on our swine flu radar screen yesterday… Here is a new revenue stream identified by the company not related to Swine Flu. The stock is up 37% today - User 283977
    reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idU...

    Major development for NVAX that will significantly advance their timeline to production of commercial scale quantities of their H1N1 vaccine.
    (October 21) Novavax and Xcellerex Inc. announce collaboration to develop large-scale manufacturing process for 2009 H1N1 Influenza VLP Vaccine. - H.T. Love
    news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article...

    (October 21) Aethlon Medical (OTCQB:AEMD) Releases Medical Device Data Against The H1N1 Swine Flu Virus - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/168085.php

    (October 21) Novavax and Xcellerex Inc. announce collaboration to develop large-scale manufacturing process for 2009 H1N1 Influenza VLP Vaccine. - H.T. Love
    xcellerex.com/news-xcellerex.htm

    Expansion of SVA's H1N1 Vaccine into Mexico.
    (October 22) Sinovac Receives Certificate of Approval to Distribute PANFLU.1 (H1N1) in Mexico - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/168426.php

    October 21 - Swine Flu Concentrator (October Part 1)
    Contains detail Swine Flu News and Comments from the first part of October (1 - 20)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    (October 16) - FDA issues emergency use authorization [EUA] for commercial H1N1 flu test to Focus Diagnostics (DGX) - User 283977
    finance.yahoo.com/news/FDA-Issues-Anothe...

    Asthma Is Most Prevalent Underlying Illness Among Most Serious H1N1 Cases - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/167579.php

    (October 16, 2009) Red Cross Offers Important Tips For Caring For Someone With The Flu - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/167553.php

    (October 16) - Tamiflu-resistant new flu detected in patient with no record of Tamiflu use - doubleguns
    japantoday.com/category/national/view/ta...

    (October 15, 2009) - Tightening young visitor access to H1N1 patients in the hospital - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/167491.php

    October 9, 2009 Scientists Awaiting The Mutation Of H1N1 - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166825.php

    October 9 - Chinese Health Experts Look To Control Spread Of H1N1 In Country's Remote Regions - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166869.php

    October 9, 2009 - H1N1 flu taking off in U.S., officials say. But you can take H1N1 and seasonal shots at the same time. - User 283977
    reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE5...

    October 10, 2009 - Swine Flu Partys, Mix with the Infected, see if you can be Infected too - Freya
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166990.php

    October 11, 2009 - U.S. Department Of Health And Human Services And The Ad Council Launch National Campaign To Help Prevent The Spread Of The H1N1 Flu Virus. - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166935.php

    (October 12) -  A Mixed Bag for Traders and Investors in Healthcare - M. E. Garza
    India is rumoured to be one of the countries interested in Novavax's (NVAX) flu vaccine technology platform.
    seekingalpha.com/article/166076-a-mixed-...

    (October 13) Novavax (NVAX) Awarded NIH Grant for Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Vaccine Program - H. T. Love
    reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idU...

    (October 13) Sinovac Receives Certificate of Approval to Distribute Panflu (H5N1) Vaccine in Hong Kong. Its good for 5 years - User 283977
    prnewswire.com/news-releases/6407270...

    (October 14) CT Scans Show Patients With Severe Cases Of H1N1 Are At Risk For Developing Acute Pulmonary Emboli. Demonstrates superiority of CT scans over chest radiographs in identifying serious complications as a possible result of the H1N1 virus - User 283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/167378.php

    (October 14) Rapid Vaccine Rollout Effective In Reducing Infection Rates, Shown By H1N1 Simulation Modeling. Underscores vital importance of the new rapid production methods (e.g., NVAX) (VICL) to manufacturer vaccines. - User283977
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/167324.php

    (October 5 - October 9) - Swine Flu fast forward - Freya
    * H1N1 vaccine does not substitute for Pneumonia shot. H1N1 infection dangerous for Pregnant Women. Getting H1N1 through blood banks
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/393700-freya/...

    (25 September 2009) Optimizing Influenza Vaccine Distributions
    To minimize deaths, infections, years  of life lost, contingent valuation and economic costs optimal vaccination policy is achieved by prioritization of schoolchildren and adults aged 30 to 39 years. - User283977
    sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/...

    September 20 - October 5) - Swine flu Updates - Freya
    * Freya was re-instated by SA - First discussion of hospital bed limited capacity issue. Freya identifies a new player in the VLP play - Medicago (OTC:MDCGF). Surgical masks are found to provide adequate protection against H1N1.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/393700-freya/...


    (September 16 - September 27) - med-stocks + 17 - one eye
    * List of med stocks. WHO up-dates vaccine does from 2 billion to 3 billion.
    seekingalpha.com/user/406793/instablog


    (September 12 - September 23) - Swine Flu-a scary little article - one eye.
    * optionsgirl reports $70.9 million contract for syringes and needles, sharps collectors and alcohol swabs to  Retractable Technologies (NYSEMKT:RVP), and another player in the Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) play (BDX). Quite a few companies mentioned here with respect to the Injection / Vaccine support services play. Discussion of NVAX's capital raising.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/406793-one-ey...


    (September 11 - September 16) - More from Swine Flu Country - one eye.
    * Mention that US vaccine supply may miss H1N1 peak and that cause of deaths from H1N1 re different from seasonal flu.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/406793-one-ey...


    (September 2 - September 25 Novavax's VLP Flu Vaccine Is A Game Changer - M.E. Garza - A great author for news on Biotech stocks.
    * Discusses the importance of new fast vaccine production methods
    seekingalpha.com/article/159622-novavax-...

    (September 8 - September 11) - SW Flu - one eye.
    *Review of Special Report in the 3 September 2009 issue of Nature, pages 20 - 21 on H1N1. Reports that public health-care system may be overwhelmed.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/406793-one-ey...


    (September 4 - September 8 ) - Swine Flu 2 - one eye.
    * Mayascribe's list of H1N1 stocks. User283977 reports revised categories of investment plays. Mayascribe adds (NYSEMKT:TPI) to the stock list.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/406793-one-ey...


    (August 29 - September 7) - The Swine Flu daily  - one eye -
    *Took over Freya's H1N1 news concentrator. Contains estimates of US GDP reductions - First categories of H1N1 investment plays - Mayascribe's list of H1N1 stocks
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/406793-one-ey...


    (August 27) - Swine Flu Part 3 - Freya
    *All valuable comments are lost
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/393700-freya/...


    (August 16) Swineflu updates part 2 - Freya
    *All valuable comments are lost
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/393700-freya/...


    (July 31, 2009) Swine Flu News-Daily- Freya
    * The person that started the H1N1 news research concentrator using the Instablog tool - Unfortunately, ALL of the valuable comments were erased because Freya was suspended by SA. However, her links to articles are still their.
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/393700-freya/...

    ***


Back To FocalPoint Analytics' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (85)
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  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pandemic stockpiling will be a recurrent business, rather than a simple one-off.

     

    (November 12) Glaxo sees recurring pandemic flu business

     

    Sales of flu treatments due to the H1N1 swine flu pandemic may be sustainable beyond the current winter season, as governments around the world overhaul their long-term strategy on stockpiles.

     

    GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Chief Executive Andrew Witty said on Thursday that pandemic stockpiling would be a recurrent business, rather than a simple one-off, with some 60 countries now running strategic reserves of both vaccines and antivirals. "It's going to be a material piece of business for the company."

     

    Glaxo has said analyst forecasts for about $1.7 billion of H1N1 vaccine sales in the fourth quarter are broadly accurate, and similar numbers are forecast for the first quarter 2010.

     

    Investors and analysts have questioned the sustainability of sales of vaccines and antivirals like Glaxo's Relenza. But Witty said… "After this particular spike is gone, my belief is that those institutions (government stockpiles) will stay in place -- this notion of being ready and better-prepared for next time," Witty said.

     

    Pandemic flu will be a "very significant business" for Glaxo through /until March and probably also in the second quarter of next year, he said. After that much will depend on how long the pandemic lasts, how many countries maintain stockpiles and of what size.

     

    www.reuters.com/articl...
    15 Nov 2009, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    I saw a local news show that concluded the bulk of the epidemic already hit the USA. Have you seen anything like that?
    15 Nov 2009, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • SAS70
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    OG

     

    Haven't seen anything on the news yet. I can tell you a few weeks ago our local schools had almost a third to half their student populations absent. In addition my wife and I had a lot of family members in that same time period who were sick. My wife wants me to go get the nasal version on Tuesday at a local state health clinic. Probably should even though its seemed to run it's course at least through our area.
    15 Nov 2009, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OG, your question raises a fundamental issue concerning swine flu. That issue concerns whether the infection distribution will follow the distribution of seasonal flu, or will it be different? Seasonal flu exhibits a single peak infection rate in January - February. So environment factors have a considerable impact on when the single peaked infection rate occurs. Swine flu is clearly unusual because of the large number of infections we have experienced so early in the year. This is the first indication that it might not be prudent to assume that the distribution of swine flu infections will resemble the distribution of seasonal flu infections.

     

    I could not find an article that directly answered your question, so I took a stab at it myself. I started off wondering why seasonal flu peaks in the coldest months. My guess is that the presence of lower temperatures and inhospitable weather conditions results in the application of increased stress to the body (e.g., raw throats, dried mucus membranes) in conjunction with an increase of the amount of time people spend in-doors, in close proximity. Swine Flu appears to be quite contagious, so my guess is we should see an increase in the swine flu infection rate in January - February. This is one of the reasons why people need to take the swine flu vaccine when it becomes available. Assuming that the worst has passed, and concluding that there is no need to take the swine flu vaccine, could result in an overtaxing of heath facilities in January - February.

     

    Here is a recent article that discusses the possibility of multiple peaks in the infection distribution.

     

    (October 23) H1N1 matches seasonal flu peak months early -CDC

     

    H1N1 swine flu has become widespread in 46 of the 50 U.S. states, a level comparable to the peak of ordinary flu seasons but far earlier and with more waves of infection expected, a top U.S. health official said on Friday.

     

    "… To be basically in the peak of flu season in October is extremely unusual," said Dr Thomas Frieden, the director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Seasonal flu normally peaks sometime between late November and early March. And he noted that this virus was sickening young adults and children as opposed to seasonal flu, which usually hits people over 65 the hardest.

     

    "We expect that influenza will occur in waves and we can't predict how high, how far or how long the waves will go or when the next will come," he told reporters in a telephone briefing.

     

    But health officials are quick to note that the actual number of cases cannot be measured. "We have had up until now many millions of cases of pandemic influenza in the U.S. and the numbers continue to increase," Frieden said.

     

    www.reuters.com/articl...
    16 Nov 2009, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    You guys are great. Thanks for answering. On Saturday, our little town had some vaccine at the local high school. My husband wanted to take the shot, but couldn't. They don't have enough for the 65+ group.
    16 Nov 2009, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 15) Sinovac Reports Un-audited Third Quarter 2009 Financial Results

     

    Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (SVA) , a leading developer and provider of vaccines, announced today its un-audited financial results for the three-month and nine-month periods ended September 30, 2009.

     

    Financial Highlights
    Sales for the third quarter increased 142% to $21.2 million
    Sales for the nine-month period increased 40% to $47.8 million
    Operating income for the third quarter rose 436% to $12.4 million
    Operating income for the nine-month period increased 90% to $23.7 million.

     

    Net income attributable to the shareholders increased 606% to $5.2 million in the third quarter, with diluted EPS of $0.12

     

    Cash and cash equivalents at September 30, 2009 was $46.6 million.
    16 Nov 2009, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Piper Jaffrey just upgraded SVA to overweight with a revised target price of $11.00, up from their previous target price of $9.00
    16 Nov 2009, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ha Ha Ha!!!!! Excellent... I just bought some before the news.
    16 Nov 2009, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    NVAX announcement (good): www.novavax.com/downlo...
    16 Nov 2009, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Report from Guinea Pig #259: CVM article on SA: seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    Stock continues to trade in the lower side of the $1.30 - 1.40 range.

     

    I got both flu shots. No symptoms, and hopefully I am now protected. If I catch the flu again (which would be for the third time this year, and probably the last time, as it would likely kill me), I will probably sell all my stocks and update my will.
    16 Nov 2009, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    User: Here's another article to add to your files. This one is about swine flu booster shots:

     

    www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3...

     

    Anybody taking a peek at (SVA)?

     

    Ah, scannig up I see you are!
    16 Nov 2009, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A good news day for (SVA). Fran will be pleased.

     

    (November 16) Sinovac Biotech (SVA) receives purchase order from Shanghai government to supply hepatitis A vaccine Healive. Out of the five vaccine manufacturers that participated in the bidding process, the Shanghai Government awarded Sinovac the entire hepatitis A vaccine purchase order, valued at RMB 20.6 million, or approx $3.0 million. Pursuant to the agreement, Sinovac will supply Healive over the next twelve months.

     

    finance.yahoo.com/mark...
    16 Nov 2009, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » VICL up about 6% today…

     

    (November 16) Vical Incorporated (VICL) today announced that the company will be added to the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index effective with the U.S. market open on Monday, November 23, 2009.

     

    "We are pleased that Vical has been selected as a member of the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index," said Vical's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jill M. Broadfoot, "reflecting growing awareness of our DNA delivery technology and recognizing progress in our product development programs. We believe Vical's inclusion in the Index will further enhance our visibility with the investment community."

     

    ir.vical.com/releasede...
    16 Nov 2009, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 17) FDA Approves Additional Vaccine For 2009 H1N1 Influenza Virus

     

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced that it has approved a fifth vaccine for protection against the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus. The vaccine is manufactured by ID Biomedical Corp. of Quebec, Canada, owned by GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).

     

    ID Biomedical's H1N1 monovalent vaccine will be produced in multi-dose vials, in a formulation that contains thimerosal. (ed: it contains some mercury).
    17 Nov 2009, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 17) H1N1 Continues To Spread, Despite Levelling Off In Some Regions, WHO Reports

     

    Despite reports that the numbers of new H1N1 (swine flu) are levelling off in some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, the virus continues to spread, the WHO said Friday, Reuters reports. "In an update on the H1N1 swine flu virus, the WHO said parts of the southern and south-eastern United States, as well as Iceland and Ireland, seemed to have weakening levels of disease after an unusually early start of the winter flu season," the news service writes.

     

    (ed: read my post from November 16 that suggests their will be multiple waves of swine flu, and the next wave should occur during the normal flu season (January - February). )
    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    17 Nov 2009, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 17) Sinovac's (SVA) PANFLU.1 (H1N1) Regulatory Approval Expanded to Include Geriatric Population

     

    Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (SVA), a leading developer and provider of vaccines in China, announced today that it received a revised production license from State Food and Drug Administration for Panflu.1, the Company's H1N1 vaccine. The population has been expanded to include people over 60 years old. The shelf life for PANFLU.1 was extended to one year from six months. (ed: the latter extends it stockpile value).
    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    17 Nov 2009, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 7) Novartis (NVS) Influenza A(H1N1) 2009 vaccine US interim data show lower doses of antigen may suffice to generate a protective immune response against Swine Flu.

     

    Interim clinical data from approximately 4,000 individuals suggest that half a dose of the currently US-approved Novartis unadjuvanted Influenza A(H1N1) 2009 vaccine met immunogenicity criteria in adults and the elderly

     

    Data also show that Novartis MF59® adjuvant was well tolerated and could potentially quadruple the Novartis A(H1N1) 2009 influenza vaccine supply

     

    "These promising data suggest that many more people could potentially be vaccinated with our current vaccines supply, protecting more people earlier against the current pandemic," said Andrin Oswald, CEO of Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics. "The data also confirms the antigen sparing potential of our proprietary adjuvant, MF59®. The vaccines output of our Liverpool, U.K., based flu manufacturing facility, fully dedicated to the US since the emergence of the pandemic, could be quadrupled if vaccines are adjuvanted."

     

    www.novartis.com/newsr...
    17 Nov 2009, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Plausible explanation of why SVA fell today:
    www.tickerspy.com/blog...
    17 Nov 2009, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Now we know why SVA has been moving downward on highly positive news over the past couple of days. So days before they announce a shelf offering, people are selling the stock… Silly me, I thought that kind of thing was illegal.

     

    (November 18) Sinovac Files Shelf Registration Statement

     

    Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (SVA) , announced today that it has filed a shelf registration statement on Form F-3 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Mr. Weidong Yin, Chairman, President and CEO of Sinovac, remarked, "The shelf registration is intended to provide us with greater financial flexibility to execute our growth strategy over the next several years. It is important to note that we do not have immediate plans to raise capital."

     

    If and when the shelf registration statement on Form F-3 is declared effective by the SEC, Sinovac may from time to time offer and sell up to 10 million common shares. The use of the net proceeds from the sale of the common shares will be set forth in the applicable prospectus supplement filed each time common shares are sold.
    18 Nov 2009, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I see from OG's post that BCRX is also offering an additional 5M shares with a special 750K shares for the underwriter.
    18 Nov 2009, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 18) CEL-SCI Corp (CVM) starts its first clinical study for hospitalized H1N1 patients at The Johns Hopkins 1.36 +0.05 : Co announced the start of the co's first clinical study for hospitalized H1N1 patients at The Johns Hopkins. This initial study will involve taking blood from 20 hospitalized, laboratory-confirmed H1N1 patients and activating their cells with the LEAPS-H1N1 investigational therapy in order to assess the cells' response as the basis for the planned future treatment of this patient population under a next-stage clinical trial protocol. In parallel, the study will involve taking blood from 20 healthy individuals not infected with H1N1 and activating their cells with the LEAPS-H1N1 investigational therapy to serve as a control for the patient group in the study.
    finance.yahoo.com/mark...
    18 Nov 2009, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Backed up November 19 at 3:06 Pacific.
    19 Nov 2009, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    Ah! That's it! They need to buy more eggs! Millions and millions and millions of eggs, oh my!

     

    This could be a good sign to jump back in soon. Thanks, Rat!
    19 Nov 2009, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This does seem to provide evidence that SVA's shelf registration was necessary to provide greater financial flexibility to execute their growth strategy over the next several years. 1.5 million vaccinations PER DAY! Remember it takes two eggs to produce one H1N1 dose.

     

    (November 19) China's health minister said Wednesday his country is vaccinating 1.5 million people a day against swine flu, part of a mammoth effort to reach nearly 7% of inhabitants of the world's most populous country by year's end, and officials hope to vaccinate an additional 3% in January and February.

     

    Chen Zhu, China's health minister told The Associated Press that… "We are in a shortage of the vaccine in China. In the short term, no exports," he said. "We will see if next year there is a possibility to export a little bit, but to get the pandemic under control in China should be the most important contribution for its control worldwide."
    www.usatoday.com/news/...
    19 Nov 2009, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    CalMaine is calling again... And it has a high dividend yield, as I recall.

     

    And the chicken farmers of Georgia stand ready to do their duty!

     

    Of course unless we start shipping eggs to China and Europe, none of this will mean anything. The good old US of A decided to run our own vaccine companies out of town a few years back...

     

    Maybe not such a good idea, LOL!

     

    I always said those dang lawyers would be the death of me one day...

     

    On Nov 19 07:38 PM Mayascribe wrote:

     

    > Ah! That's it! They need to buy more eggs! Millions and millions
    > and millions of eggs, oh my!
    >
    > This could be a good sign to jump back in soon. Thanks, Rat!
    19 Nov 2009, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    NVAX 11/20/9 07:45: ... ntends to offer shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering. Piper Jaffray & Co. and Lazard Capital Markets LLC are acting as joint book running managers.

     

    The offering is being made pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Copies of the final prospectus supplement and accompanying prospectus relating to the offering may be obtained from the Securities and Exchange Commission at sec.gov or from Piper Jaffray & Co. at 800 Nicollet Mall, Suite 800, Minneapolis, MN 55402 or by
    calling 1-800-747-3924.

     

    Looks like this is the shlef registration of 9/15/9?

     

    sec.gov/Archives/e...

     

    HardToLove
    20 Nov 2009, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: As low as $3.25 pre-market. Last $3.31. Potential support at $3.35 for normal market hours. Closed yesterday, 11/19/9 @ $3.77.

     

    Haven't seen any short squeeze support during this options expiration week. Today is last Nov. options trade day. Price has been trending down on increasing (slightly) volume. If there's any substantial short interest that needs to close yet, we /may/ see some price support today.

     

    Being in options expiration week, I'm discounting charts right now. The only thing I can decide is that I will close my short calls today to lock in profits on them. My positions at about the right level for my portfolio right now, considering all things including charts

     

    If I was CEO of NVAX, I would have another significant announcement of some major positive development waiting in the wings to garner as much revenue as possible from the offering. I wonder if we'll see such.

     

    Long-term, I'm still playing for the Jan 2010 time-frame for progress from Mex/India/ ... efforts.

     

    Keep in mind the pre-market /often/ has prices lower than what's normally seen during more liquid standard trading day hours.

     

    Strengthening dollar today may provide some additional downward pressure.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Nov 2009, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Another #^^^%$# shelf registration move! I agree with you HT, Late December through January for results on Mexico clinical trials.
    20 Nov 2009, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I sold off most of my NVAX back when Maya sold half of his, and more since, I am just holding onto 300 shares at the moment, just to keep my toe in that water.
    20 Nov 2009, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Offering at $3.30, use for pre-clinical trials, and the usual catch-all corporate purposes. Only 6.8M shares being offered, not too bad. Net proceeds expected @ $21M.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Nov 2009, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I will buy a bit more NVAX if it trips 3.25.
    20 Nov 2009, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have a stop on SVA at 7.
    20 Nov 2009, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8504) | Send Message
     
    USER I missed your avatar change. Looks more appropriate for the fear factor in the market at present.
    20 Nov 2009, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi Guns! Yes, I have several and change them as a function of how I am doing in the market... I clearly have too much time on my hands.
    20 Nov 2009, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » H1N1 has a propensity to mutate quickly. So far, none of the mutated strains appear to be rapidly replicating. I am including this breaking news link so if you see headlines about the Norway mutations, you will know what was actually said by the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.

     

    (November 20) Mutated virus of H1N1 found in Norway.
    The Norwegian Institute of Public Health on Friday said it discovered mutated versions of the H1N1 swine flu virus.

     

    One mutation of the virus caught a special interest. "It has been found in two patients who died from the new influenza (H1N1) and in one patient with severe influenza disease," it said. "These were the two first patients who died from the new influenza in Norway. Some of those who died later have been examined without finding the same mutated virus." The institute says the mutation could possibly make the virus more prone to infect deeper in the airways and thus cause more severe illness.

     

    "We have analyzed approximately 70 viruses from confirmed Norwegian cases and found the mutation in ONLY (ed: emphasis is mine) these three patients. Based on what we know so far, it seems that the mutated virus does NOT circulate (ed: emphasis is mine) in the population, but might be a result of spontaneous changes which have occurred in these three patients." Stene-Larsen says there is no indication that the mutation has any importance for the effect of the H1N1 vaccine or the effect of antiviral treatment.
    news.bnonews.com/wxip
    20 Nov 2009, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 20) China to punish those concealing swine flu info
    China's health ministry said it will punish officials who underreport cases of swine flu after a doctor famous for exposing the extent of the 2003 SARS epidemic said he believes the true number of swine flu deaths is being covered up. China's official count of swine flu cases is nearly 70,000 reported illnesses and 53 deaths, although even Beijing acknowledges the outbreak is much larger than the numbers show.

     

    On Thursday, Dr. Zhong Nanshan, director of Guangzhou's Institute of Respiratory Diseases, said in the Guangzhou Daily newspaper "I totally don't believe the total number of swine flu deaths have been reported nationwide." There has been a dramatic spike in Chinese swine flu cases recently, and those reported by the government are only "minimum numbers," Dr. Michael O'Leary, WHO's top representative in China, has told The Associated Press.
    www.chinapost.com.tw/c...
    20 Nov 2009, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    One of the prior support levels was around the ~$3.20 level. If there's much short covering going on (I wasn't able to detect evidence of that though, unless today's volume increase is due to that and not folks getting out due to the price drop) you could see a drop tomorrow and onward. But I /suspect/ the $3.30 will tend to be the "trade around" price for a short while until something shows up. We could see folks edging back in, figuring that with a "floor" ~$3.30 this is a good entry point.

     

    As always, deductions include an undetermined amount of personal ignorance here.

     

    HardToLove

     

    On Nov 20 10:27 AM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > I will buy a bit more NVAX if it trips 3.25.
    20 Nov 2009, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    H1N1 Mutated in Norway. 2 people died:
    SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Norwegian Institute of Public Health said Friday that it has found a mutated version of the H1N1 virus in three patients in Norway, two of whom died. The institute suggested this is normal and "most of these mutations will probably have little or no importance." Still, the mutation could also make the virus more prone to deeper infection of the airways and cause more severe problems. However, for now, "There is no indication that this change in the virus is of any importance for the effect of the vaccine or the effect of antiviral treatment," the institute said in a statement posted on its Web site.
    20 Nov 2009, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Lordy, see this on INO?
    ir.inovio.com/phoenix....=
    20 Nov 2009, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    OG: That's a stunning development! But, why are they always picking on ferrets? (BPAX) also used a ferret in its animal study.

     

    Not liking hearing that H1N1 has mutated. Not good. Mutation is what has worried my broker most. For those new here, my WFC broker sits on the board of Jefferson Hospital here in Philly.

     

    If this kicks into gear it's time to look once again at (APT).
    20 Nov 2009, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    getting closer to the universal vaccine.

     

    On Nov 20 01:16 PM optionsgirl wrote:

     

    > Lordy, see this on INO?
    > ir.inovio.com/phoenix....;p=irol-newsArticle&am...
    20 Nov 2009, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    More detail on Norwegian and Welsh mutations and tamiflu resistance:
    www.bloomberg.com/apps...
    20 Nov 2009, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I added the definition of "Cytokine Storm" in our definitions area at the top of the Insta.

     

    Cytokine Storm -
    When our body detects foreign micro-organisms indicating an infection, our body might respond by over-protecting the site of infection. The body may race so many antibodies to the infection site that they collect in what is known as a cytokine storm.

     

    A cytokine storm, or "Hypercytokinemia" is a potentially fatal immune reaction consisting of a positive feedback loop between cytokines and immune cells.
    www.wisegeek.com/what-...

     

    A positive feedback loop means that as something increases, that increase stimulates further growth.

     

    What makes younger people more susceptible to H1N1 is that their vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs.

     

    This vulnerability in the young is reminiscent of the Spanish flu of 1918. That strain of flu also struck mostly healthy young adults.
    21 Nov 2009, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    Get this: This morning at 7:15, Surrey Services, who provide the live-in help for my mother, called and said that the lady who was supposed to be showing up at 9:00 couldn't make it because her son was admitted to the hospital last night for swine flu. The Surrey Services lady then went on to say that lady with the sick son will be arriving tomorrow. (Apologies to Freya/Conan). No effing way!

     

    How could anyone suggest sending someone who is HIGHLY likely to be carrying H1N1 to my house? I'm pissed. Really pissed, additionally because the substitute lady I previously had told Surrey to not have her come back is right now in the den. Obsequious Motor Mouth Marge will simply not shut up. This is really pushing my polite-ness quotient.
    21 Nov 2009, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Oh c***... Like you need all this stress on top of everything else. You are absolutely correct... no way should she be even close to your house at this time. Clearly the people at Surrey Services are clueless. I hope you find a solution to this right away. Remember to take care of yourself too... constant stress can have a very insidious effect on your own health. I know that from experience.
    21 Nov 2009, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I found your comment to Mayascribe to be hateful. How dare you make such a statement to a person that is taking care of his sick mother. You know nothing about the situation, yet you insert yourself into this man's private life with your snide and insulting remark.
    22 Nov 2009, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    User: Thanks for having my back!

     

    By the way, the situation has been remedied.
    22 Nov 2009, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 19) FDA Rejects New Type Of Flu Vaccine
    An FDA federal advisory committee narrowly rejected a new type of influenza vaccine made in insect cells, requesting additional safety data before moving forward, Reuters reports.
    www.medicalnewstoday.c...

     

    This must be NVAX. No surprise here, NVAX has not even started clinical trials in the US. The primary investment play for NVAX is Mexico and India, particularly India where NVAX's partner is already building a new manufacturing facility for their VLP approach.
    22 Nov 2009, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely with you, User! I am having trouble touch typing, either I am having a stroke or I can't see straight..

     

    Maya, glad to hear you got a handle on that. Its a battle, I know, but it must be fought one campaign at a time.

     

    On Nov 22 10:52 AM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > I found your comment to Mayascribe to be hateful. How dare you make
    > such a statement to a person that is taking care of his sick mother.
    > You know nothing about the situation, yet you insert yourself into
    > this man's private life with your snide and insulting remark.
    22 Nov 2009, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 22) Swine flu kills 4 Haj pilgrims
    Makkah (AFP) - Swine flu has killed four pilgrims in Saudi Arabia for the Haj, the health ministry said in a statement carried by the official SPA news agency on Saturday. The ministry said a Moroccan woman, a Sudanese man and an Indian man - all aged 75 - had died from H1N1, as had a 17-year-old girl from Nigeria. It said the four had not followed “recommended procedures, especially vaccination against swine flu.”

     

    Health ministry spokesman Dr Khaled Marghlani told AFP the four victims were all suffering from health problems already, including cancer and respiratory illness. Marghlani said 16 other cases of swine flu infection among pilgrims had been detected, and that “four are in hospital in critical condition.” Twelve people suffering from the disease had recovered completely after treatment, he said.
    ________________
    Previous news said that in order to enter Saudi Arabia for the Haj you needed a paper saying you had been vaccinated against H1N1. I hope they are following their own procedures. All those people in close proximity …..
    22 Nov 2009, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Are you ok triple?
    22 Nov 2009, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Sure. Just started hitting the keys too hard, LOL.

     

    Getting old and decrepit. How annoying.

     

    And the Saudis installed their requirement for flu vaccinations AFTER the pandemic had begun. Even if they enforced their rules very strictly, they would do little for those who crossed their borders prior to the new rules. I also wonder if they incorporate a 21 day waiting period for the vaccine to take full affect...

     

    On Nov 22 11:38 AM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > Are you ok triple?
    22 Nov 2009, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2415) | Send Message
     
    "I found your comment to Mayascribe to be hateful. How dare you make such a statement to a person that is taking care of his sick mother. You know nothing about the situation, yet you insert yourself into this man's private life with your snide and insulting remark."

     

    Okay, where is it. I want Name, Rank or Serial Number.

     

    Usually when there is one such comment, there are others. Best to root it out at the Bud. You know me, I'm not squeamish.

     

    BTW, Swash, I remember what you did for me, I'll never be able to stay perturbed for long.
    22 Nov 2009, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2415) | Send Message
     
    I really don't see, regardless of the Spin, how we can expect Hog prices not to drop. Its Swine Flu, thats how the public views H1N1.

     

    Seeing as How the Gov. doesn't know what its doing on H1N1, how can it be believed in saying that you can't get it from Pork, Hell, How about Mad Cow?

     

    Ho, ho Berry, Berry. I don't give a Rat's behind whether you use the Eff word, I do care if its use is directed at me or Women in general. I also do not know why using a word like "Shit" or "Crap" for emphasis can't suffice.

     

    However, if you do Spell it out, I will definitely try to X it out of existence. I'm true to myself.
    22 Nov 2009, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    I reported it as soon as I spotted it. I had to. It really got me hot.

     

    On Nov 22 01:52 PM Freya wrote:

     

    > "I found your comment to Mayascribe to be hateful. How dare you make
    > such a statement to a person that is taking care of his sick mother.
    > You know nothing about the situation, yet you insert yourself into
    > this man's private life with your snide and insulting remark."<br/>
    >
    > Okay, where is it. I want Name, Rank or Serial Number.
    >
    > Usually when there is one such comment, there are others. Best to
    > root it out at the Bud. You know me, I'm not squeamish.
    >
    > BTW, Swash, I remember what you did for me, I'll never be able to
    > stay perturbed for long.
    22 Nov 2009, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    Freya, TB, and User: Thanks, ever so much!

     

    When I used to own eateries, I would say, or rather instruct, teach, advise and imbue each and every new employee that there are about 2% of people who wake up everyday with an attitude that life is rotten, and that they believe it is their divine right to do everything in their delusional and contemptuous power to create havoc upon everyone they meet. It's just, unfortunately, humanity at its worst. It's just a small percentage of how humans are. Thing is, its a small percentage.

     

    As many people whom I've met and served in my lifetime, I except this to be true. Same goes for this website.

     

    Thanks again for having my back! I was thinking, conjuring up how intense I could/can get about popping this simp, but I chose not to, maybe because I had already popped another simp in John Petersen's latest column, who was popping me, i.e., I got banged twice today from two different idiots! But, you know what? The person who gave me some crap about taking care of my mother, as I do, I completely wrote off as one of those two percenters. The other dude, in Petersen's column, is a repeat offender menace. Had to pop that piece of crud.

     

    So lets get to work. This is the other company I discovered this weekend:

     

    xcellink.com/s/Hom...

     

    What do you think, about rhymed Xcellink? I'm impressed, but I'm not sure as to how many people want to use their cell phones to buy things over the Internet. Yet, Uncle Sammy and the military should love this company.

     

    User: You can out hurl Brett Farve!
    23 Nov 2009, 01:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    Use new editing feature? Lose your link! So here it is.

     

    www.xcellink.com/s/Hom...
    23 Nov 2009, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2415) | Send Message
     
    Maya, Think in terms of Security, losing a Cell with GPS built in can lead people to your home, losing a Cell with Labelled #'s allows for texting inquiries on Pins from your spouse. There are Just toooo maany ways to get shafted Via Cell currently, why add another?

     

    I'm serious, what was the Handle of the Interloper?

     

    Gold Up, Silver Up, Oil Up, Copper Up (BHP strike settled).
    HL is starting to worry me, it may be playing Catch Up but It still looks Hyper. Still have 600 shares

     

    Rigs in Use are Jumping, almost +10% in past two weeks. I'm going back into HERO.

     

    It looks like a Stampede, I do not like Stampedes, don't know how to time them. Need Help

     

    Help, Help, Hell.
    23 Nov 2009, 04:31 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This is copied from OG who accidentally published it today (NOV 23) in the old Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 4 - 5 Part 2).

     

    optionsgirl: Did you catch this? European deaths are doubling every two weeks

     

    www.bloomberg.com/apps...
    23 Nov 2009, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    I'm sorry. They all look alike!

     

    On Nov 23 07:57 AM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > This is copied from OG who accidentally published it today (NOV 23)
    > in the old Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 4 - 5 Part 2).
    >
    >
    > optionsgirl: Did you catch this? European deaths are doubling every
    > two weeks
    >
    > www.bloomberg.com/apps...;sid=amUEb3XDZ0yk&...
    23 Nov 2009, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hmmmm that's a good point OG.... I think I will put the word 'current' in front of the most recent concentrator... than when its retired, I will remove it.
    23 Nov 2009, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    Freya: Good "lost" thought.
    23 Nov 2009, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    Class action lawsuit danger? Could be...

     

    I won't comment further on market timing, I am pulling back everywhere except for oil and a few mining stocks. I plan to start buying back in sometime early (hopefully) in 2010.

     

    Oh, bought some TOO, EEP and TSO, still have GWM, thinking about buying PAL.

     

    On Nov 23 09:22 AM Mayascribe wrote:

     

    > Freya: Good "lost" thought.
    23 Nov 2009, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    CVM insider selling:
    www.thestreet.com/stor...

     

    I bought NVAX at $3.00. Crazy huh?
    23 Nov 2009, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Crazy like a fox! I bought some more too ;)
    23 Nov 2009, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OG... that link on CVM sure looks like a smoking gun to me. I just sold most of mine.
    23 Nov 2009, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Backed up November 23 at 1:54pm Pacific.
    23 Nov 2009, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    LOL, yes, I read that this morning. Sold my CVM this afternoon. Featherbedding is right!

     

    On Nov 23 02:03 PM optionsgirl wrote:

     

    > CVM insider selling:
    > www.thestreet.com/stor...;cm_ven=EMAIL_mdb_html
    >
    >
    > I bought NVAX at $3.00. Crazy huh?
    23 Nov 2009, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 24) CDC confirms Kanawha County pediatrician had swine flu -- twice

     

    Dr. Debra Parsons at Kid Care West in Cross Lanes, was met with reactions of doubt from local health officials last month when she said she had contracted H1N1 twice.

     

    Parsons first came down with the virus, complete with all the telltale symptoms, in August. Her son became ill at the same time with the same symptoms. Figuring they had the same bug, Parsons tested herself to see what it was. Parsons was positive for H1N1.

     

    Parsons and her son recovered, but in October they started having the same symptoms, but they became much worse. They were both tested this time, and the results were the same - they were positive for H1N1.

     

    Dr. Rahul Gupta, director of the Kanawha-Charleston Health Department, and John Law, spokesman for the West Virginia Division of Health and Human Resources, were skeptical of Parsons' claim.

     

    So the specimen from the Parsons' second flu test was sent to the CDC in Atlanta, where it underwent a preliminary strain reaction test. Parsons says that test is the "gold standard" in differentiating between seasonal and swine flu. That sample came back a couple weeks ago, and it was positive for H1N1. The CDC then requested a specimen from Parsons' August flu test. Last Friday, the results of that test came back positive for H1N1.
    www.dailymail.com/News...

     

    (ed: this seems quite unusual, but it does raise an interesting and equally scary issue - if swine flu mutated, would it be possible to catch it twice?)
    24 Nov 2009, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 24) NanoViricides Presents FluCide™ Animal Study Data At Influenza Congress - Now Improved Substantially And Vastly Superior To Current Treatment

     

    NanoViricides, Inc. (NNVC) announced that Dr. Eugene Seymour, MD MPH, CEO of the Company, presented lifetime data from the recent FluCide™ animal study on November 19th at the Influenza Congress USA 2009 in Washington, DC. These data clearly established that the new version of FluCide™ is superior to the older version. The data also showed extremely large survival lifetime improvement compared to an extended therapy using oseltamivir (Tamiflu® Roche).

     

    The Company has previously shown that a previous version of the FluCide drug candidate was highly effective against two different clades of the H5N1 bird flu virus, in addition to being highly effective against H1N1 in the mouse model. The Company has recently improved the FluCide drug candidate, creating what it believes to be a single drug candidate against all forms of influenza. The Company believes that the data we presented at the Influenza Conference establish this pan-influenza drug candidate as a leading anti-influenza drug in development.
    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    24 Nov 2009, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 24) CDC: Multiple waves of flu and pandemic activity is on the rise in Eastern Europe and parts of Asia

     

    The pandemic of swine flu may be hitting a peak in the United States, health experts said on Friday. But they stressed that influenza, especially a pandemic, could hit several peaks in a single season. They said weeks or months more of disease could be expected, Dr. Anne Schuchat told a news conference. "I wish I knew if we had hit the peak. Even if a peak has occurred, half the people who are going to get sick haven't gotten sick yet".

     

    Meanwhile - Flu activity is widespread in 43 states now, down from 46 last week and 48 two weeks ago. Flu cases also appear to have peaked in the U.K. and parts of Western Europe, BUT (ed: my emphasis) infections are on the rise in Eastern Europe and parts of Asia, the World Health Organization said. Pandemics occur in waves. In the 1957-58 flu pandemic, one wave peaked in the fall and was followed by a second wave in January".
    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    24 Nov 2009, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    Not NVAX - I don't recall anything in my research indicating they use any biological-based medium for their process. That doesn't mena they don't, just they don't mention anything like that.

     

    Following your links a little further takes us here

     

    www.reuters.com/articl...

     

    where we see the company and product are Protein Sciences Corp FluBlok vaccine.

     

    NVAX dropped just because of the new share issue I think. Price was an over-reaction in my opinion.

     

    HardToLove

     

    On Nov 22 11:24 AM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > (November 19) FDA Rejects New Type Of Flu Vaccine
    > An FDA federal advisory committee narrowly rejected a new type of
    > influenza vaccine made in insect cells, requesting additional safety
    > data before moving forward, Reuters reports.
    > www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    >
    > This must be NVAX. No surprise here, NVAX has not even started clinical
    > trials in the US. The primary investment play for NVAX is Mexico
    > and India, particularly India where NVAX's partner is already building
    > a new manufacturing facility for their VLP approach.
    24 Nov 2009, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    I don't think so. Today, 11/24, the expected support at $3.20 seems to be in effect. The day ended with a chart pattern of a "hammer", which indicates that attempts to initially crush the price was met by buyers stepping up. Can't declare a reversal yet, but it is a potential good sign. Since I think the price drive down was a big over-reaction to a 6% (if I recall correctly) dilution, I'm glad to see this response. It was very low volume, so we can't read too much into it yet.

     

    RSI and stochastic currently oversold, MFI /very/ near but moved up a bit. The only real concern for me is the Accum/Distribution is still very negative. I /guess/ that may be a residual of the 9/1 spike in price and volume.

     

    If NVAX starts up, we can expect pauses, and possible inflection points, at $3.40, $3.60, $3.80. If we see price increasing towards and through those levels on volume increasing I think it bodes well.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. I've not forgotten about the "Energy Concentrator" - I'll reply to that shortly in that chat.

     

    On Nov 23 02:03 PM optionsgirl wrote:

     

    > CVM insider selling:
    > www.thestreet.com/stor...;cm_ven=EMAIL_mdb_html
    >
    >
    > I bought NVAX at $3.00. Crazy huh?
    24 Nov 2009, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10332) | Send Message
     
    Freya: I just fired out an email to Xcellink about what happens if one loses or has their cell phone stolen. I will let you know if I get a response.

     

    On Nov 23 04:31 AM Freya wrote:

     

    > Maya, Think in terms of Security, losing a Cell with GPS built in
    > can lead people to your home, losing a Cell with Labelled #'s allows
    > for texting inquiries on Pins from your spouse. There are Just toooo
    > maany ways to get shafted Via Cell currently, why add another?<br/>
    >
    > I'm serious, what was the Handle of the Interloper?
    >
    > Gold Up, Silver Up, Oil Up, Copper Up (BHP strike settled).
    > HL is starting to worry me, it may be playing Catch Up but It still
    > looks Hyper. Still have 600 shares
    >
    > Rigs in Use are Jumping, almost +10% in past two weeks. I'm going
    > back into HERO.
    >
    > It looks like a Stampede, I do not like Stampedes, don't know how
    > to time them. Need Help
    >
    > Help, Help, Hell.
    24 Nov 2009, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13583) | Send Message
     
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    Looks like SIGA may be on the move today. Short covering could get fierce!

     

    Up to 8.75 early...
    25 Nov 2009, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    INCY: Incyte Corp. has entered a collaboration and license agreement with Swiss drug maker Novartis AG (NVS) for two of its investigational hematology-oncology therapies.

     

    Incyte shares climbed 15% premarket to $8.90. The stock had doubled this year through Tuesday.

     

    Novartis will pay Incyte up to $1.1 billion over time if milestones for the deal, which involves the development of therapies that treat myelofibrosis and "multiple cancers" are met. Novartis will pay Incyte $150 million up front plus an immediate $60 million "milestone payment" for a phase 3 European trial of the myelofibrosis therapy that began in July.

     

    Under the agreement, Incyte will hold exclusive rights for the development and potential commercialization of the myelofibrosis therapy, and Novartis will have responsibility for its future development and commercialization in all hematology-oncology instances outside the U.S.

     

    Novartis also will be responsible for the worldwide development of the cancer treatment.

     

    Novartis in October said its third-quarter profit was flat, but it upped its sales outlook for the full year as income from new products offset softening growth in its flagship drugs Diovan and Gleevec. Delaware-based Incyte hasn't been profitable as its drugs are still in development.

     

    As usual, just found, no DD yet. Thoughts?

     

    HardToLove
    25 Nov 2009, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You are correct HT, it was not NVAX, it was Protein Sciences. Their vaccine called "FluBlok" was the one that was not approved by the government advisory panel.
    www.bloomberg.com/apps...

     

    However, NVAX does indeed use caterpillar cells.... here is some more information on the issue....

     

    VLP Technology:
    NVAX scientists need only the genetic sequence of a virus to quickly create a VLP vaccine against it. Because VLPs do not contain viral nucleic acids (DNA or RNA), they cannot replicate, and therefore present no threat of infection to a person being vaccinated. Two of the leading developers, Novavax (NVAX), of Maryland, and Medicago, of Quebec City, have taken VLP flu vaccines all the way through preclinical animal testing and into human clinical trials.

     

    However, the two companies use different manufacturing processes. Medicago grows its VLPs in transgenic tobacco plants, which are simple to manipulate, fast to grow, and easily raised in high-tech greenhouses that can be built almost anywhere. The company injects full-grown tobacco plants with genetic information from a target virus, and the plants produce VLPs in their biomass that can be extracted a few weeks later. No doubt this is the reason Philip Morris (PM) is their partner.

     

    Novavax uses an insect cell-culture approach, growing its VLPs in a line of identical "immortalized" cells taken 20 years ago from a caterpillar called a fall armyworm. The armyworm cells are injected with a recombinant baculovirus - a virus that only infects insects--that is tweaked to resemble a targeted flu virus. The cell responds by producing and secreting VLPs that have a shell identical to that of the flu virus but contain no flu RNA. The process is performed in disposable, ready-to-use equipment.
    www.technologyreview.c.../

     

    Medicago looks like a promising company, but I suggest great caution with respect to buying their stock due to their exchange listing.
    25 Nov 2009, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here is one of the uses for that recent SVA shelf registration.
    They are rapidly expanding and diversifying their production scale.
    What does this say about what SVA management is seeing with respect to sales projections?

     

    (November 25) Sinovac Expands Vaccine Capabilities with New JV

     

    SVA inked a joint venture (JV) agreement to establish Sinovac Dalian Vaccine Technology. The JV will research, develop, produce, and commercialize human-use vaccines. Sinovac will contribute its expertise and experience in developing and commercializing world-class vaccines; Dalian Jin Gang Group will contribute its land-use rights, manufacturing facilities, and established operating infrastructure.

     

    Sinovac Biotech will make an initial cash contribution of 60 million RMB ($8.8 million). Dalian Jin Gang Group’s asset contribution, inclusive of its manufacturing facilities, production lines, and land-use rights, has an appraised value of 140 million RMB ($22.5 million). Equity interest is divided 30% and 70% between Sinovac and Dalian, respectively. Sinovac will increase its equity shares to 55% in exchange for a cash contribution of 50 million RMB ($7.5 million), on or before December 31, 2010.

     

    According to Weidong Yin, chairman, president, and CEO of Sinovac, the JV provides a “highly efficient platform to expand our manufacturing capacity, diversify our production capabilities, and increase our operational scale. By leveraging the favorable investment environment, Dalian's relatively low operating cost, and its existing facilities, this JV enables Sinovac to cost-effectively establish manufacturing platforms for live attenuated vaccines and vero cell cultured vaccines, thus adding another important manufacturing site for Sinovac's vaccine products.

     

    Sinovac representatives will assume key positions at the JV including chairman, GM, head of R&D, and financial director. Sinovac Dalian will be headquartered in Dalian, Liaoning Province. The campus currently contains two vaccine production lines—one for the vero cell cultured vaccines and one for live attenuated vaccines—and has capacity to house approximately six different production lines.

     

    Sinovac Dalian's development pipeline is expected to be composed of vaccines for rabies, mumps, varicella, and rubella. The Dalian-based facility has a designed annual manufacturing capacity of 20 million doses of vero cell cultured vaccines and 20 million doses of live attenuated vaccines.
    www.genengnews.com/new...
    25 Nov 2009, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18369) | Send Message
     
    Thx - I had not seen that (or maybe didn't remember?) that NVAX used insect cells.

     

    HardToLove

     

    On Nov 25 11:34 AM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > <snip>
    > However, NVAX does indeed use caterpillar cells.... here is some
    > more information on the issue....
    >
    ><snip>
    > Novavax uses an insect cell-culture approach, growing its VLPs in
    > a line of identical "immortalized" cells taken 20 years ago from
    > a caterpillar called a fall armyworm. The armyworm cells are injected
    > with a recombinant baculovirus - a virus that only infects insects--that
    > is tweaked to resemble a targeted flu virus. The cell responds by
    > producing and secreting VLPs that have a shell identical to that
    > of the flu virus but contain no flu RNA. The process is performed
    > in disposable, ready-to-use equipment.
    > www.technologyreview.c.../
    >
    > Medicago looks like a promising company, but I suggest great caution
    > with respect to buying their stock due to their exchange listing.
    25 Nov 2009, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Backed up November 25 at 2:24pm Pacific.
    25 Nov 2009, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I decided to do some data analysis to see if there was evidence of multiple waves in the current H1N1 pandemic. I also wanted to see how similar those waves are to the 1918 - 1919 pandemic… they appear eerily similar in timing.

     

    Based on the similarity, it appears that if there is a third wave of H1N1, It will peek at the end of February, early March. Peek influenza season is in that time frame.

     

    Of course, I wish I had more data and better data. If more turns up, I will augment the instablog.
    seekingalpha.com/user/...
    26 Nov 2009, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 27) Swine Flu Transmission Could Be Reduced By 21 Percent By School Closure

     

    A survey carried out in eight European countries has shown that closing schools in the event of an infectious disease pandemic could have a significant role in reducing illness transmission.

     

    Children are important spreaders of many close contact pathogens due to their frequent and intimate social contacts, their general hygiene, and perhaps their increased shedding. The reduced opportunity for contact we describe here would be a great benefit in a pandemic situation.

     

    The researchers conclude, "If we can assume that school closure in a pandemic situation resembles school closure during holiday periods, then our results show that such a strategy would have significant impact on disease transmission, of about 21%.
    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    27 Nov 2009, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Backed up November 28 at 1:54pm Pacific.

     

    PLEASE USE Current Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 28 - xx Part 5)
    28 Nov 2009, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2415) | Send Message
     
    What do you mean by "apparently you can catch SF Twice"?
    30 Nov 2009, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6143) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The " Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 13 - 28 Part 4)" has been summarized and added to the Memory Alpha Reference Library
    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    5 Dec 2009, 03:41 PM Reply Like
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