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  • Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 28 - December 4 Part 5) 45 comments
    Nov 28, 2009 5:00 PM | about stocks: APT, BAX, BCRX, BDX, CBM, CLX, CVM, DGX, ECL, HOLX, GSK, INO, MMM, NVAX, NVS, PURE, ROG, SVA, VICL
    Explanation:

    I will post Swine-Flu and related articles under this heading.  The top of the instablog will contain my current months key links  preceded with a one or two liner that explains the link.  A more complete summary of the link will be in the comments area.  At the bottom of the Instablog we have definition of terms, a summary of Swine Flu / vaccine investment plays, the 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map, Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu, and Memory Alpha which contains links to previous news concentrators and authors articles on the subject.

    I will be backing this up frequently as well.
    Last backup:   Dec 4 2:30 pm Pacific.

    _____________________

    Update History:
    Added Overview of H1N1 / Categories of Vaccine Investment Plays Added Memory Alpha
    Added Link to Google's Swine Flu Infection Map
    Added Red Cross Tips for Dealing With The Flu
    Added definition of EUA and PREP act
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into two parts for October
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into three parts for October
    Added Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 1
    Bolded References to Older Swine Flu Concentrators in Memory Alpha
    Expanded the list of stocks discussed in the tags
    Alphabetized stocks in the tags
    Updated the play by stock list
    Added a table that contains the web site addresses for the companies discussed
    Moved links over one month old to the new Memory Alpha Reference Library
    Added definitions of Clinical Trials and Protocol.
    _____________________
    November Links:

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 13 - 28 Part 4)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    (November 27) Swine Flu Transmission Could Be Reduced By 21 Percent By School Closure - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/172347.php

    (November 26) Some data analysis comparing H1N1 with 1918 - 1919 Pandemic and the likelihood of multiple waves of H1N1. - User 283977
    seekingalpha.com/user/283977/instablog

    (November 24) CDC confirms Kanawha County pediatrician had swine flu -- twice - User 283977
    www.dailymail.com/News/Kanawha/200911230838

    (November 23) CVM Insider selling - optionsgirl
    www.thestreet.com/story/10630997/1/cel-s...

    (November 20) Reports on H1N1 mutations - User 283977
    news.bnonews.com/wxip

    (November 16) Research on multiple waves of H1N1 - User 283977

    (November 12) Glaxo sees recurring pandemic flu business - User 283977
    www.reuters.com/article/Health09/idUSTRE...


    Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 15 -  13   Part 3)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    (November 13) Role Of Statins In Reducing H1N1 Mortality Rates Studied - User 283977
    www.physorg.com/news177329653.html

    (November 12) Pandemic 2009 Influenza Update: US FDA Approves GSK's Pandemic H1N1 Vaccine - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/170691.php

    (November 10) H1N1 Cases Increase In China, Japan; Afghanistan Attempts To Contain Virus - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/170401.php

    (November 8) D.C. Vaccine Conference Will Attract Government Policy Makers and Biotech Innovators - FROM: M.E. Garza's Instablog
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/424698-m-e-ga...

    (November 7) CEL-SCI (NYSEMKT:CVM) To Conduct First Clinical Study Of Investigational LEAPS-H1N1 Treatment For Hospitalized H1N1 Infected Patients - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/170190.php

    (November 6) HHS Orders Intravenous Antiviral Flu Medication To Help Patients Hospitalized With 2009 H1N1 - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/170140.php

    (November 5) MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season - User 283977
    www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...

    (November 5) Merriman Curhan Ford initiates coverage on Novavax (Nasdaq: NVAX) with a Buy rating and $6-$8 price target range. - H.T. Love
    Sorry - link will not copy

    (November 5) Analysis Of Data From Japan Suggests A Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown - User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php

    (November 5) Today BioCryst (NASDAQ:BCRX) received its first government order for 10,000 courses of peramivir with a hefty $22.5 million price tag -- more than $2,000 per course. - User 283977
    finance.yahoo.com/news/The-2000-Swine-Fl...

    (November 5) H1N1 Masks Boost Firm
    Alpha Pro Tech (NYSEMKT:APT) is considering the addition of new N95 manufacturing lines, each capable of contributing $9 million in annual revenue. The company speculated that the H1N1 pandemic could last two to five years, which bodes well for an acceleration of its sales momentum through at least 2010. - User 283977
    Sorry - link will not copy

    (November 5) Novartis Cell-Based H1N1 Vaccine Gets German OK
    Swiss drug maker Novartis (NYSE:NVS) Thursday said it received regulatory approval to sell its cell-based swine flue vaccine in Germany, Making an important milestone in gaining acceptance for newer rapid ways of producing vaccines.
    Novartis is close to completing a second cell culture-based influenza vaccine manufacturing site in the U.S., which is being built in partnership with the US Department of Health and Human Services. - User 283977
    //smartmoney.com/breaking-news/on/?story=O...

    (November 3) - CDC will stick with "tried and true" methods for flu vaccine production - M.E. Garza's Instablog
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/424698-m-e-ga...

    (November 3) - CEL-SCI (CVM) is working on a technology that effectively attacks a virus even after it attempts to mutate to another form.  A brief explanation is provided in this concentrator. More complete info is in the link - tripleback.
    biomedreports.com/articles/most-popular/...

    (November 1) A quick overview concerning the issue of Mercury (specifically Thimerosal) in H1N1 vaccines. The second link tells us that if the presence of Thimerosal raises concerns, it may be possible to find Single-dose syringes of H1N1 vaccine which are thimerosal-free.  User 283977
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169364.php
    www.physorg.com/news172252051.html


    ___________________
    Some Definitions:

    Swine Flu - Novel H1N1 flu, popularly known as swine flu, is a respiratory infection caused by an influenza virus first recognized in spring 2009. The new virus, which is officially called swine influenza A (H1N1), contains genetic material from human, swine and avian flu viruses. (By Mayo Clinic staff)

    Pandemic - The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people.

    A World Health Organization phase 6 pandemic indicates that influenza due to the novel H1N1 swine flu is occurring in multiple countries around the world and that human infection is widespread. The classification does not reflect the severity of individual infections.

    Cytokine Storm -
    When our body detects foreign micro-organisms indicating an infection, our body might respond by over-protecting the site of infection. The body may race so many antibodies to the infection site that they collect in what is known as a cytokine storm.

    A cytokine storm, or "Hypercytokinemia" is a potentially fatal immune reaction consisting of a positive feedback loop between cytokines and immune cells.
    www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-st...

    A positive feedback loop means that as something increases, that increase stimulates further growth.

    What makes younger people more susceptible to H1N1 is that their “vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs.

    This vulnerability in the young is reminiscent of the Spanish flu of 1918. That strain of flu also struck mostly healthy young adults.

    Pulmonary Embolism - Occurs when a blood clot forms in an arm or leg breaks free and enters the lungs where it is too large to pass through the small vessels of the lungs and forms a blockage. This stops blood from flowing into an area of the lung, and the part of the lung dies because it does not receive oxygen.
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/153796.php

    What is an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?
    An EUA may be issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow either the use of an unapproved medical product or an unapproved use of an approved medical product during certain types of emergencies with specified agents.

    What is the PREP Act?
    The PREP Act authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (“Secretary”) to issue a declaration (“PREP Act declaration”) that provides immunity from tort liability (except for willfull misconduct) for claims of loss caused, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats and conditions determined by the Secretary to constitute a present, or credible risk of a future public health emergency to entities and individuals involved in the development, manufacture, testing, distribution, administration, and use of such countermeasures.

    The PREP Act also authorizes an emergency fund in the United States Treasury to provide compensation for injuries directly caused by administration or use of a countermeasure covered by the Secretary’s declaration. While no funds have been appropriated for this purpose, if funds are appropriated, compensation may then be available for medical benefits, lost wages and death benefits to individuals for specified injuries.
    cdc.gov/h1n1flu/eua/qa.htm

    What are Clinical Trials:
    Clinical trials, also known as clinical studies, are research studies in which scientists and doctors test new drugs and treatments to see if they will improve health. Many of today's treatments for cancer are based on the results of past clinical trials. Because of progress made through clinical trials, many people treated for cancer are now living longer.

    Clinical trials are divided into four phases.
    Phase 1 trials: These trials are the first time a new drug or treatment is given to humans. They are normally carried out in a small number of volunteers (typically 6-20 people) who may include healthy volunteers or patients with the disease for which the product is intended as a treatment in order to find out how safe the treatment is. They also look at how a new drug should be given (by mouth, injected into muscle or the bloodstream, etc.), how often and at what dose. Phase 1 trials can also involve patients for whom standard therapies have failed and for whom no other therapies are available.

    Phase 2 trials: These trials involve larger numbers of people (typically 12 - 50). Phase 2 trials continue to look at safety of the therapy but also test how well the new drug or treatment works in patients with different disease types.

    Phase 3 trials: These are large studies (100+ people) that look at how well a new drug or treatment works in comparison to current therapies to see which treatment is better. Those taking part are usually divided into two treatment groups: standard treatment versus new treatment.

    Phase 4 trials: These trials are usually carried out after the drug or treatment has been approved by the FDA and is readily available for use in the general patient population. The purpose of Phase 4 trials is to continue to study the effects of the drug or treatment on different populations and to look for side effects associated with long-term use.
    Back to Top

    What is a Protocol:
    Clinical trials use written guidelines called protocols. The protocol explains what the trial hopes to accomplish, how the trial will be carried out, and why each part of the trial is necessary. For example, the protocol includes:

        * The reason for doing the trial
        * How many people will be in the trial
        * Who is eligible to take part in the trial
        * What study drugs participants will need to take
        * What medical tests participants will have and how often
        * What information will be gathered

    Every doctor or research center that takes part in the trial uses the same protocol. This makes sure that patients are treated identically no matter where they are receiving treatment, and that information from all the centers taking part can be combined and compared.

    Why Slow Production for Traditionally Produced (chicken eggs) Swine Flu Vaccine:
    One dose of swine flu vaccine for every two eggs, compared with two doses of seasonal flu vaccine per egg
    http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/10/22/quest_for_swine_flu_vaccine_giving_some_firms_a_boost/

    _____________________
    Brief Overview of Categories of H1N1/ Vaccine Investment Plays:

    I - Vaccines / Prevention
    1) Production Method / Capacity plays (NVAX) (NASDAQ:VICL) (NVS) (NYSEMKT:INO)
    2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play (NASDAQ:SVA)
    3) Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) (NYSE:BAX) (NYSE:BDX)
    4) Outsourced production plays
    5) Bio -Defence (OTC:MDCGF)
    6) Anti-Mutation / Pan-Influenza Play (CVM) (NYSEMKT:NNVC) (INO)
    7) Universal Flu Vaccine Play (INO)

    II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
    1) Dealing with severe lung infections (Fludase® (DAS181)) (NYSE:CBM) (OTCQB:AEMD)
    2) ICU treatments (BCRX) (NYSE:GSK) (NYSE:ROG)
    III - Population Avoidance:
    1) masks/ disinfectants… Surgical masks are good enough (APT) (NYSE:MMM) (NYSE:CLX) (NYSE:ECL) (OTCQB:PURE)

    IV - Testing do you have it? (NASDAQ:GPRO)
    1) Test kits - (NYSE:DGX)

    V - Merger / Acquisitions / Licensing (VICL) (NVAX)
    _____________________
    Sorry this is still a graphic instead of a table. I played with the table tool, but its a
    PITA to work with.

    Swine Flu Companies Discussed and Their Web Sites


    _____________________
    Swine Flu Hits Stuffed Animal World:



    2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map:
    The Link is from DoubleGuns
    flutracker.rhizalabs.com/

    I am not too happy with any of the outbreak maps. They all make the same mistake, they try to show the worlds data on one chart. This makes them SLOW.
    I will keep looking for one that works faster.
    _____________________

    Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu:

    IF YOU ARE ILL -
    * Stay in a room separate from common areas of the home and avoid contact with others as much as possible.

    * Stay at home for at least 24 hours after their fever is gone without using medicine to reduce the fever.

    * Get lots of rest and drink plenty of fluids.

    * Consider wearing a facemask, if available and tolerable, when sharing common spaces with household members. (ed - surgical masks ok).

    * Check with your healthcare provider about whether to take antiviral medication, or if fever persists, whether antibiotics are needed.

    WHEN CARING FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS THE FLU -
    *Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces that everyone touches.

    * Use detergent and very hot water to do dishes and wash clothes. It's okay to wash everyone's dishes and clothes together. Wash your hands after handling dirty laundry.

    * Designate only one adult as the caregiver. People at increased risk of severe illness from the flu should not be caregivers.

    * Although not mentioned by the Red Cross, the caregiver should probably ware a surgical mask as well when entering the sick room.

    * Deal with crisis situations calmly and confidently to give the best support to the person being cared for.
    _____________________

    MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season

    Click here to link to the Mayo tool:
    www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...

    _____________________
    Suggeted Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php

    After comparing more than two dozen possible scenarios for closing a school, the analysis suggested three optimal scenarios:

    1. A single-day influenza-related absentee rate of 5 percent

    2. Absenteeism of 4 percent or more on two consecutive days

    3. Absenteeism of 3 percent or more on three consecutive days


    Older references are stored in the MEMORY ALPHA REFERENCE LIBRARY
    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-283977/37565-memory-alpha-reference-library



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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (45)
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    iGovernment - India

     

    India to develop swine flu vaccine by June 2010
    Three pharmaceutical companies — Serum Institute of India, Bharat Biotech, and Panacea Biotech — are working on developing the vaccine

     

    Published on 11/24/2009 7:09:34 PM

     

    New Delhi: India would be able to indigenously develop swine flu vaccine by June next year, Health Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad told Parliament on Tuesday.

     

    "Three companies are working towards developing indigenous vaccine for the swine flu and it is expected that clinical trials would start in January 2010. If all goes well, indigenous vaccine would be available by June 2010," Azad said.

     

    In India, three pharmaceutical companies — Serum Institute of India, Bharat Biotech, and Panacea Biotech — are working on developing the vaccine, reports IANS.

     

    Azad said that to cover the interim period, the government is importing pandemic vaccine to vaccinate the high risk group.

     

    "We have procured 40 million capsules and 400,000 bottles of oseltamivir, the drug used to treat swine flu. Restricted sale of the drug is allowed through retail outlets," Azad said.
    28 Nov 2009, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (November 30) (NVAX) announces that it has completed enrollment in the Phase II clinical study of its trivalent seasonal influenza VLP vaccine candidate in healthy adults 60 years of age or older.
    finance.yahoo.com/mark...
    30 Nov 2009, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    Oh Goody, 40 million for a population of over a Trillion.

     

    A thought. Does anyone Know of a site which identifies Flu seasons on a Global geographical location?
    30 Nov 2009, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Copied from old Swine Flue Concentrator...

     

    Freya
    What do you mean by "apparently you can catch SF Twice"?
    30 Nov 2009, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    User: Got me, I was quoting a statement you made and wondering why you made it.

     

    I think its somewhere in the middle of Part 4.
    30 Nov 2009, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

     

    USER see if this site interests you. It is the US fluview site.

     

    www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/fl...

     

    This is the Canadian equivalent.
    30 Nov 2009, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    Billion not trillion. I know the FED has converted billion to trillions in all of our minds. I did not even catch it at first myself. LOL

     

    On Nov 30 11:15 AM Freya wrote:

     

    > Oh Goody, 40 million for a population of over a Trillion.
    >
    > A thought. Does anyone Know of a site which identifies Flu seasons
    > on a Global geographical location?
    30 Nov 2009, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    User: here you go

     

    "Category News November 13 - 28:
    China to punish those concealing swine flu info
    European deaths doubling every two weeks
    H1N1 booster shots needed for young children
    H1N1 mutations
    H1N1 transmission could be reduced by 21 % by school closures
    Pandemic stockpiling
    Proportion of students out of school
    Swine Flu and Haj pilgrims
    WHO reports H1N1 continues to spread despite levelling off in some regions
    You can apparently get Swine Flu twice"

     

    Maybe you meant regions of the world could get a second dose of the Virus but I didn't get that from the above. So I thought I'd ask.
    30 Nov 2009, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    Freya you might try this site for a global influenza info. World health organization. Lots of info. I am heading out right now or I would look through it.

     

    www.who.int/csr/diseas.../
    30 Nov 2009, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi Freya - I used "apparently" because one instance does not mean it will generalize to the population. What I would like to know is was it the same strain that infected them twice, or was it a mutation? The fact that one of these people is a doctor is suggestive because doctors are exposed to many more sick people then the rest of us, so I suspect they would be more likely to be exposed to mutations.

     

    The report raised some questions. If that doctor had received the H1N1 vaccine, could they have caught it twice? I would think the answer to that would be yes since the vaccine works by inducing a persons immune system to produce anti-bodies that fight the infection. This is the same mechanism that would be activated by actually getting the virus. However, if the virus mutates what happens to the level of protection offered by the vaccine?

     

    Another question that I have been wondering about concerns the role of symptom reliving aids like Tamiflu with respect to eliciting a viral mutation. If you give people something that kills the virus, no mutation. However, if you give people something that does not kill the virus but only puts a stress on it, like Tamiflu, I would think that stress would be more likely to elicit a mutation from the virus. If the latter hypothesis was correct, is it in the populations interest to provide a stimulus that could elicit a mutation? Remember, I don't know if Tamiflu does elicit mutations, I am just wondering if it can act that way.
    30 Nov 2009, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    User: Agree, Drugs which are geared for a specific purpose might, in fact, weaken the overall immune system which may make us more susceptible to variations.

     

    Like antibiotics which no longer work because viruses have adapted to them.

     

    I get the impression that the more we try to twart Mother Nature, the faster she fights back.
    30 Nov 2009, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    a link from DG's link, provides an overview of worldwide activity for the weeks 44-45, ending on Nov. 27th. Taken in this context, SF seems to have appeared in Mid- January of this year, much earlier than I had thought. The Mexicans appear to have hid it as long as they could. No wonder no one bothered closing the Borders, It was far too late.

     

    www.who.int/entity/csr...
    30 Nov 2009, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for those sites! I seem to always be adding to my site list. The issue of site trust also enters the picture. Back in the old days, I would have trusted a US government site for accurate information. Now-a-days its a different story.

     

    There is an old adage that if you want to manage something you have to be able to accurately measure it. I have doubts with respect to the accuracy of information provided by our government. In many cases, organizations that are supposed to be gathering objective performance statistics have clearly been politically motivated to modify definitions and results to reduce political fallout. Then they make decisions based on those politically censored reports with the obvious result of bad decisions. Good examples are the inflation or unemployment numbers.

     

    The CDC is under a good deal of pressure because of their handling of the H1N1 vaccination program. A good example of these politically motivated blinders took place in late July when the CDC abruptly advised states to stop testing for H1N1 flu, and stopped counting individual cases. The rationale given for the CDC guidance to forego testing and tracking individual cases was: why waste resources testing for H1N1 flu when the government has already confirmed there's an epidemic.

     

    www.cbsnews.com/storie...

     

    There are numerous reason why its important to test. For one reason, if someone thinks they had H1N1 they would mistakenly presume they're immune. As a result, they might skip taking a vaccine that could help them, and expose themselves to others with H1N1 flu under the mistaken belief they won't catch it. Parents might not keep sick children home from school, mistakenly believing they've already had H1N1 flu.

     

    You also can't follow the course of the infections without data. No scientist would every make a decision like that, so the decision must have been politically motivated in an attempt to muzzle news organizations from reporting the extent of the infections, and thereby the extent of the failure of the governments H1N1 vaccine program by not getting vaccines to people sooner.

     

    Oh well… sorry for the rant…
    30 Nov 2009, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    LOL, looking for political agendas to explain quixotic behavior in groups connected with (and controlled by) the government is simple common sense, User.

     

    The idea of accessing multiple streams of information (which the www makes possible, of course) and comparing that information with both its fellow streams and whatever mass media and anecdotal evidence presents itself, if what its all about.

     

    I distrusted these governmental sources last year, and have seen NOTHING to cause me to change that stand.

     

    Collect the data and look at it, and see how it applies, yes...

     

    But TRUST? No. Their credibility is very questionable.

     

    On Nov 30 12:38 PM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > Thanks for those sites! I seem to always be adding to my site list.
    > The issue of site trust also enters the picture. Back in the old
    > days, I would have trusted a US government site for accurate information.
    > Now-a-days its a different story.
    >
    > There is an old adage that if you want to manage something you have
    > to be able to accurately measure it. I have doubts with respect to
    > the accuracy of information provided by our government. In many cases,
    > organizations that are supposed to be gathering objective performance
    > statistics have clearly been politically motivated to modify definitions
    > and results to reduce political fallout. Then they make decisions
    > based on those politically censored reports with the obvious result
    > of bad decisions. Good examples are the inflation or unemployment
    > numbers.
    >
    > The CDC is under a good deal of pressure because of their handling
    > of the H1N1 vaccination program. A good example of these politically
    > motivated blinders took place in late July when the CDC abruptly
    > advised states to stop testing for H1N1 flu, and stopped counting
    > individual cases. The rationale given for the CDC guidance to forego
    > testing and tracking individual cases was: why waste resources testing
    > for H1N1 flu when the government has already confirmed there's an
    > epidemic.
    >
    > cbsnews.com/storie...
    >
    >
    > There are numerous reason why its important to test. For one reason,
    > if someone thinks they had H1N1 they would mistakenly presume they're
    > immune. As a result, they might skip taking a vaccine that could
    > help them, and expose themselves to others with H1N1 flu under the
    > mistaken belief they won't catch it. Parents might not keep sick
    > children home from school, mistakenly believing they've already had
    > H1N1 flu.
    >
    > You also can't follow the course of the infections without data.
    > No scientist would every make a decision like that, so the decision
    > must have been politically motivated in an attempt to muzzle news
    > organizations from reporting the extent of the infections, and thereby
    > the extent of the failure of the governments H1N1 vaccine program
    > by not getting vaccines to people sooner.
    >
    > Oh well… sorry for the rant…
    30 Nov 2009, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: NVAX started @ overweight by Piper Jaffray 6:55 A.M. EDT.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Dec 2009, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (December 1) Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (SVA) announced today that it has received its fourth purchase order for its H1N1 vaccine, PANFLU.1(TM), from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for the national purchase plan. Under this purchase order, Sinovac is required to produce an additional one million doses of PANFLU.1 for the Chinese central government. The delivery of this order is expected to be completed early next year.

     

    The Company recently completed the expansion of its production line utilized to manufacture the seasonal influenza, H1N1 and H5N1 vaccines, thereby increasing its annual production capacity by approximately 30%. Sinovac is utilizing its expanded production line to manufacture the one million doses to fulfill this purchase order.
    www.sinovac.com/Invest...
    1 Dec 2009, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    NVAX is turning into a dog. I think its time to put this one out in my kennel with all my other dogs. I have a very unique collection of dogs. Most are very dirty right now, they have all given ME a bath ;-{
    1 Dec 2009, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Guns: For me, Novavax and Vical are on the back burner. Somewhere within this fantastic column that User has assembled is and article about the CDC stating it would take two more years to complete studies on VLP technology. NVAX does have outside the country deals with Mexico, and I believe India.

     

    I believe that NVAX and Vical have game changing technology. But until the CDC gets on board, or nears getting on baord, I'm out. I have maybe 25 shares on the board just to keep track, because someday down the line, I want a piece of this technology.

     

    (SVA) is the only under H1N1 $10.00 stock that seems worth owning. My sister has some SVA, and we talked about it tonight; I advised her to keep it. China is a whole other nut.

     

    I bought some SanofiAventis a while back, which is performing pretty well. Bummed me out when Cramer had the CEO on the other night. That's as good as putting a bad juju whammy on the stock.

     

    1 Dec 2009, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    I find Maya's and DG's posts insightful. I bought more @ $3.00 last week, and it's up 7% already. As you guys know, I hedge whenever I can, so I sold $5.00 calls on it, too. So, I'm gonna stick with it for now. I wouldn't be surprised to see it pop again before going down.
    My question is regarding India. NVAX signed that joint venture deal with that private company in India. How should India's appointments for these three Indian companies impact the NVAX joint venture?
    1 Dec 2009, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: +7.5% pre-mkt. I guess yesterday's Piper Jaffray upgrade to outperform will have an effect. I've got some excess over my core position that I'l take some profits on if a nice run develops.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Dec 2009, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (December 2) Novavax reports 'positive' clinical results from pivotal study of H1N1 influenza vaccine in Mexico (NVAX). The company reports favourable initial results from the first stage of a two-stage pivotal Phase II study evaluating the safety and immunogenicity of the company's 2009 H1N1 virus-like particle pandemic influenza vaccine. Novavax is conducting this study in collaboration with Avimex Laboratories of Mexico to support registration of the vaccine in Mexico and potentially other countries.

     

    Based on these findings, the DSMB (Data and Safety Monitoring Board) recommended that the study proceed to Stage B of testing in which vaccine safety will be evaluated in 3,000 subjects with a 15 mcg single dose regimen. The safety and immunogenicity data from all 1,000 subjects in Stage A will be available in January, 2010.
    finance.yahoo.com/mark...
    2 Dec 2009, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Planets aligning?

     

    What User reported about the early results, upgrade to outperform and as of yesterday charts showed initial signs of reversing as stochastic crossed up, volume on price rise showed a small recovery and it was coming out of oversold on both RSI and MFI.

     

    Do we need to buckle the 5 point harness for this run?

     

    HardToLove
    2 Dec 2009, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its up 8% on the open HT. Could be interesting today.
    2 Dec 2009, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7886) | Send Message
     
    I guess I should talk more bearish about this stock. Seems to be helping.

     

    NVAX you bad stock!! I am going to beat you like a redheaded step child.
    2 Dec 2009, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That crazy like a Fox OG bought NVAX at $3. I wonder if she is going to let it ride or take the profits and wait for the next wave?
    2 Dec 2009, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    ride it. thanks for the compliment.

     

    On Dec 02 10:35 AM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > That crazy like a Fox OG bought NVAX at $3. I wonder if she is going
    > to let it ride or take the profits and wait for the next wave?
    2 Dec 2009, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    That's what I was wondering when I posted that. Looks like China and India are both trying to use the H1V1 pandemic to boost domestic capabilities.

     

    On Dec 01 11:38 PM optionsgirl wrote:

     

    > I find Maya's and DG's posts insightful. I bought more @ $3.00 last
    > week, and it's up 7% already. As you guys know, I hedge whenever
    > I can, so I sold $5.00 calls on it, too. So, I'm gonna stick with
    > it for now. I wouldn't be surprised to see it pop again before going
    > down.
    > My question is regarding India. NVAX signed that joint venture deal
    > with that private company in India. How should India's appointments
    > for these three Indian companies impact the NVAX joint venture?
    2 Dec 2009, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Hey! Don't I have the timing down pat! NVAX up 6.54%!

     

    Maya, lift the lid off that back burning pot. Take a whiff!

     

    User: How about that Jaguar running all frisky right up the charts!
    2 Dec 2009, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Indeed! Each time I look at my JAG holdings I smile :)

     

    Now if only SVA would move out of that hole ... Perhaps Guns could give it a good tongue lashing.
    2 Dec 2009, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (December 3) Infecting your computer with swine flu malware
    A new malware campaign uses faked e-mails that appear to inform of H1N1 vaccination programs from the Centers from Disease Control, but actually attempts to install the Zeus Trojan. The toxic e-mails, are spoofed to look like they were sent from the "Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)" The subject varies and will likely continue to change. Here were some examples as of Tuesday (courtesy McAfee):

     

    * Governmental registration program on the H1N1 vaccination
    * State Vaccination H1N1 Program
    * Your personal Vaccination Profile
    * Create your personal Vaccination Profile
    * State Vaccination Program
    * Creation of personal Vaccination Profile
    * Instructions on creation of your personal Vaccination Profile
    * Creation of your personal Vaccination Profile

     

    If you click the link it will take you to an official looking webpage. If you do try to create your "personal vaccination profile," what will be created instead on your computer is a new variant of something called the Zeus trojan.

     

    Technically a computer trojan is not a virus because it doesn't self-replicate but instead gives the malware malefactor the ability to control your machine remotely. One of the main uses is to integrate your computer into a botnet, a distributed network of computers for performing spamming or attacking other domains (by flooding it with requests, called a Denial of Service attack). In other words, it turns your machine into a computer zombie. But there are other possibilities as well as or instead of becoming part of a botnet, including password stealing, keystroke logging, modifying or deleting files or remote viewing of your screen. scienceblogs.com/effec...
    3 Dec 2009, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    User: Thanks! That's important to know.
    3 Dec 2009, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (December 3) Officials To Review U.S. Health-Threat Response Systems
    Citing the balky swine flu vaccination campaign and other shortcomings in the nation's medical defenses, a top Obama administration official has announced a major review of the government's efforts to develop new protections against pandemics, bioterrorism and other health threats. The impetus for the review came in part because the H1N1 vaccine shortage had highlighted the nation's dependence on antiquated technology. Sebelius said she anticipates the review to be complete by early next year.

     

    The goal of the review will be streamlined regulations that will speed the approval of new technologies that are promoted through government contracts with private companies. Dr. Lurie, assistant secretary for preparedness and response, would review the department's countermeasures, which include vaccine development and contracts, drug development and stockpiling of supplies such as medical masks and ventilators.
    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    3 Dec 2009, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    All well and good...

     

    I wonder if it will occur to them that running all the vaccine makers out of town on a rail a few years back might NOT have been the smartest thing...

     

    On Dec 03 02:08 PM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > (December 3) Officials To Review U.S. Health-Threat Response Systems
    >
    > Citing the balky swine flu vaccination campaign and other shortcomings
    > in the nation's medical defenses, a top Obama administration official
    > has announced a major review of the government's efforts to develop
    > new protections against pandemics, bioterrorism and other health
    > threats. The impetus for the review came in part because the H1N1
    > vaccine shortage had highlighted the nation's dependence on antiquated
    > technology. Sebelius said she anticipates the review to be complete
    > by early next year.
    >
    > The goal of the review will be streamlined regulations that will
    > speed the approval of new technologies that are promoted through
    > government contracts with private companies. Dr. Lurie, assistant
    > secretary for preparedness and response, would review the department's
    > countermeasures, which include vaccine development and contracts,
    > drug development and stockpiling of supplies such as medical masks
    > and ventilators.
    > www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    3 Dec 2009, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Exactly triple. No one seem to even think of national security issues... after
    all we can always get what we need from overseas. That's how our so called energy program works.... Everyone wants dollars, don't they?
    3 Dec 2009, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Some of the trading patterns today remind me of short-sellers hammering a stock. Probably when they saw 6M additional issue was announced they saw an opportunity.

     

    I don't expect it will have a long-term effect, so I'm hanging on to mine. Added another in the low $3 range, $3.21 and $3.42. I'd love to see another positive announcement prior to 12/18 and see the shorts scramble to cover.

     

    Probably won't happen though.

     

    HardTolove
    3 Dec 2009, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi HT - Every time NVAX has positive news, it seems to pops 10% on open, than its back down at close. The short positions have recently decreased 3%, so I don't think its shorts. Its moving like a seesaw, so I figure a significant number of shares are being traded for quick profit bites. People get in cheep, than sell on good news, wait for the stock to drop, and re-buy. Repeat until the play no longer works. I don't think there will be any positive news again until early January.

     

    Here is how I am playing it… I had a limit sale on it if it popped again, and it apparently popped this morning when the market went up. Now I am going to wait for it to drop again. I would like to buy at OG's price, $3.
    4 Dec 2009, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Clinical Trials
    Here is some useful information about Clinical Trials and something called a protocol that every Investors should know. I got the information off the VICL web site. This information will be copied into the main body of the Concentrator under definitions for future reference.

     

    What is a clinical trial?
    Clinical trials, also known as clinical studies, are research studies in which scientists and doctors test new drugs and treatments to see if they will improve health. Many of today's treatments for cancer are based on the results of past clinical trials. Because of progress made through clinical trials, many people treated for cancer are now living longer.

     

    Clinical trials are divided into four phases.
    Phase 1 trials: These trials are the first time a new drug or treatment is given to humans. They are normally carried out in a small number of volunteers (typically 6-20 people) who may include healthy volunteers or patients with the disease for which the product is intended as a treatment in order to find out how safe the treatment is. They also look at how a new drug should be given (by mouth, injected into muscle or the bloodstream, etc.), how often and at what dose. Phase 1 trials can also involve patients for whom standard therapies have failed and for whom no other therapies are available.

     

    Phase 2 trials: These trials involve larger numbers of people (typically 12 - 50). Phase 2 trials continue to look at safety of the therapy but also test how well the new drug or treatment works in patients with different disease types.

     

    Phase 3 trials: These are large studies (100+ people) that look at how well a new drug or treatment works in comparison to current therapies to see which treatment is better. Those taking part are usually divided into two treatment groups: standard treatment versus new treatment.

     

    Phase 4 trials: These trials are usually carried out after the drug or treatment has been approved by the FDA and is readily available for use in the general patient population. The purpose of Phase 4 trials is to continue to study the effects of the drug or treatment on different populations and to look for side effects associated with long-term use.
    Back to Top

     

    What is a protocol?
    Clinical trials use written guidelines called protocols. The protocol explains what the trial hopes to accomplish, how the trial will be carried out, and why each part of the trial is necessary. For example, the protocol includes:

     

    * The reason for doing the trial
    * How many people will be in the trial
    * Who is eligible to take part in the trial
    * What study drugs participants will need to take
    * What medical tests participants will have and how often
    * What information will be gathered

     

    Every doctor or research center that takes part in the trial uses the same protocol. This makes sure that patients are treated identically no matter where they are receiving treatment, and that information from all the centers taking part can be combined and compared.
    4 Dec 2009, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    it breached @ $2.99 last time. Don't be surprised if you can pick it up under $3.00!

     

    On Dec 04 10:44 AM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > Hi HT - Every time NVAX has positive news, it seems to pops 10% on
    > open, than its back down at close. The short positions have recently
    > decreased 3%, so I don't think its shorts. Its moving like a seesaw,
    > so I figure a significant number of shares are being traded for quick
    > profit bites. People get in cheep, than sell on good news, wait for
    > the stock to drop, and re-buy. Repeat until the play no longer works.
    > I don't think there will be any positive news again until early January.
    >
    >
    > Here is how I am playing it… I had a limit sale on it if it popped
    > again, and it apparently popped this morning when the market went
    > up. Now I am going to wait for it to drop again. I would like to
    > buy at OG's price, $3.
    4 Dec 2009, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if Barack Obama initials his memos. Does he have a stamp with B.O. or does he just go with BO?

     

    Will "Chia" Obamas' become collector's items?

     

    The Dow was up 133 when I took a Nap. I woke up and he was everywhere taking a Victory Lap and the Dow was down. I watched the "War of the Worlds" with Gene Kelly, came back to Bloomberg. BO was off and the DOW was moving up Again.

     

    So, If Obama announces a News Conference, make sure to short the Dow in advance. Get a Chia Obama before they run out.
    4 Dec 2009, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13440) | Send Message
     
    Obama and his troops going on TV during working hours should be forbidden.

     

    Every time they do this, the markets tank.

     

    Talk about having "The Ripe Stuff" for prime time!
    4 Dec 2009, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    On Dec 04 10:44 AM User 283977 wrote:

     

    ><SNIP>
    > The short positions have recently
    > decreased 3%, so I don't think its shorts. Its moving like a seesaw,

     

    If that 3% is from shortsqueeze.com, do we know if it's current?
    The record date says NOV-B, whatever that is, and still shows 15.05% - 7.1 days to cover. My /guess/ at shorts is based on watching intra-day 1 minute charts. The runs down /seem/ too large and rapid (both volume and price swings) for a normal profit-taking to my inexperienced eye. For profit-taking I would expect to see a slower progression and more reasonable volumes. Of course, if stops were triggered, they convert to market orders and we could see faster higher-volume drops.

     

    I wonder if there is a way to get short-interest so that we know the actual date of the volume so we can see if it is moving up or down throughout the month.

     

    > so I figure a significant number of shares are being traded for quick
    > profit bites. People get in cheep, than sell on good news, wait for
    > the stock to drop, and re-buy. Repeat until the play no longer works.

     

    What you suggest is also a good possibility. I was guessing shorts involved just because of the intra-day patterns I'd seen. But I really have no strong idea if I'm interpreting it correctly. Time may fix that, but for now I'm always "iffy" about it.

     

    > I don't think there will be any positive news again until early January.

     

    That's what I'm thinking.

     

    >
    >
    > Here is how I am playing it… I had a limit sale on it if it popped
    > again, and it apparently popped this morning when the market went
    > up. Now I am going to wait for it to drop again. I would like to
    > buy at OG's price, $3.

     

    Good luck on that!

     

    HardToLove
    4 Dec 2009, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    P.S. Just checked my Power E*Trade Pro fundamentals. Short interest is shown as 20.45%. But it doesn't seem to show the new shares yet so I don't know how current it is.

     

    HardToLove

     

    On Dec 04 03:20 PM H. T. Love wrote:

     

    > On Dec 04 10:44 AM User 283977 wrote:
    4 Dec 2009, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Backed up 12/4 2:30pm Pacific
    4 Dec 2009, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There is a new Current Swine Flu Concentrator. I will summarize this one into categories and put the summary into Memory Alpha this weekend.
    4 Dec 2009, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The "Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 28 - December 4 Part 5)" has been summarized and added to the Memory Alpha Reference Library
    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    5 Dec 2009, 03:39 PM Reply Like
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