Seeking Alpha

FocalPoint Anal...'s  Instablog

FocalPoint Analytics
Send Message
I own and operate an analytical services/ research company.
My book:
The Internet in Everyday Life (Chapter 19)
  • Swine Flu News Concentrator (December 4 - December 11) 128 comments
    Dec 4, 2009 5:55 PM | about stocks: APT, BAX, BCRX, BDX, CBM, CLX, CVM, DGX, ECL, HOLX, GSK, INO, MMM, NVAX, NVS, PURE, ROG, SVA, VICL
    Explanation:

    I will post Swine-Flu and related articles under this heading.  The top of the instablog will contain my current months key links  preceded with a one or two liner that explains the link.  A more complete summary of the link will be in the comments area.  At the bottom of the Instablog we have definition of terms, a summary of Swine Flu / vaccine investment plays, the 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map, Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu, and Memory Alpha which contains links to previous news concentrators and authors articles on the subject.

    I will be backing this up frequently as well.
    Last backup:   December 11 12:21 Pacific

    _____________________

    Update History:
    Added Overview of H1N1 / Categories of Vaccine Investment Plays Added Memory Alpha
    Added Link to Google's Swine Flu Infection Map
    Added Red Cross Tips for Dealing With The Flu
    Added definition of EUA and PREP act
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into two parts for October
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into three parts for October
    Added Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 1
    Bolded References to Older Swine Flu Concentrators in Memory Alpha
    Expanded the list of stocks discussed in the tags
    Alphabetized stocks in the tags
    Updated the play by stock list
    Added a table that contains the web site addresses for the companies discussed
    Moved links over one month old to the new Memory Alpha Reference Library
    Added definitions of Clinical Trials and Protocol.
    _____________________
    December Links:

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 28 - December 4 Part 5)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    ___________________
    Some Definitions:

    Swine Flu - Novel H1N1 flu, popularly known as swine flu, is a respiratory infection caused by an influenza virus first recognized in spring 2009. The new virus, which is officially called swine influenza A (H1N1), contains genetic material from human, swine and avian flu viruses. (By Mayo Clinic staff)

    Pandemic - The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people.

    A World Health Organization phase 6 pandemic indicates that influenza due to the novel H1N1 swine flu is occurring in multiple countries around the world and that human infection is widespread. The classification does not reflect the severity of individual infections.

    Cytokine Storm -
    When our body detects foreign micro-organisms indicating an infection, our body might respond by over-protecting the site of infection. The body may race so many antibodies to the infection site that they collect in what is known as a cytokine storm.

    A cytokine storm, or "Hypercytokinemia" is a potentially fatal immune reaction consisting of a positive feedback loop between cytokines and immune cells.
    www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-st...

    A positive feedback loop means that as something increases, that increase stimulates further growth.

    What makes younger people more susceptible to H1N1 is that their “vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs.

    This vulnerability in the young is reminiscent of the Spanish flu of 1918. That strain of flu also struck mostly healthy young adults.

    Pulmonary Embolism - Occurs when a blood clot forms in an arm or leg breaks free and enters the lungs where it is too large to pass through the small vessels of the lungs and forms a blockage. This stops blood from flowing into an area of the lung, and the part of the lung dies because it does not receive oxygen.
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/153796.php

    What is an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?
    An EUA may be issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow either the use of an unapproved medical product or an unapproved use of an approved medical product during certain types of emergencies with specified agents.

    What is the PREP Act?
    The PREP Act authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (“Secretary”) to issue a declaration (“PREP Act declaration”) that provides immunity from tort liability (except for willfull misconduct) for claims of loss caused, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats and conditions determined by the Secretary to constitute a present, or credible risk of a future public health emergency to entities and individuals involved in the development, manufacture, testing, distribution, administration, and use of such countermeasures.

    The PREP Act also authorizes an emergency fund in the United States Treasury to provide compensation for injuries directly caused by administration or use of a countermeasure covered by the Secretary’s declaration. While no funds have been appropriated for this purpose, if funds are appropriated, compensation may then be available for medical benefits, lost wages and death benefits to individuals for specified injuries.
    cdc.gov/h1n1flu/eua/qa.htm

    What are Clinical Trials:
    Clinical trials, also known as clinical studies, are research studies in which scientists and doctors test new drugs and treatments to see if they will improve health. Many of today's treatments for cancer are based on the results of past clinical trials. Because of progress made through clinical trials, many people treated for cancer are now living longer.

    Clinical trials are divided into four phases.
    Phase 1 trials: These trials are the first time a new drug or treatment is given to humans. They are normally carried out in a small number of volunteers (typically 6-20 people) who may include healthy volunteers or patients with the disease for which the product is intended as a treatment in order to find out how safe the treatment is. They also look at how a new drug should be given (by mouth, injected into muscle or the bloodstream, etc.), how often and at what dose. Phase 1 trials can also involve patients for whom standard therapies have failed and for whom no other therapies are available.

    Phase 2 trials: These trials involve larger numbers of people (typically 12 - 50). Phase 2 trials continue to look at safety of the therapy but also test how well the new drug or treatment works in patients with different disease types.

    Phase 3 trials: These are large studies (100+ people) that look at how well a new drug or treatment works in comparison to current therapies to see which treatment is better. Those taking part are usually divided into two treatment groups: standard treatment versus new treatment.

    Phase 4 trials: These trials are usually carried out after the drug or treatment has been approved by the FDA and is readily available for use in the general patient population. The purpose of Phase 4 trials is to continue to study the effects of the drug or treatment on different populations and to look for side effects associated with long-term use.
    Back to Top

    What is a Protocol:
    Clinical trials use written guidelines called protocols. The protocol explains what the trial hopes to accomplish, how the trial will be carried out, and why each part of the trial is necessary. For example, the protocol includes:

        * The reason for doing the trial
        * How many people will be in the trial
        * Who is eligible to take part in the trial
        * What study drugs participants will need to take
        * What medical tests participants will have and how often
        * What information will be gathered

    Every doctor or research center that takes part in the trial uses the same protocol. This makes sure that patients are treated identically no matter where they are receiving treatment, and that information from all the centers taking part can be combined and compared.

    Why Slow Production for Traditionally Produced (chicken eggs) Swine Flu Vaccine:
    One dose of swine flu vaccine for every two eggs, compared with two doses of seasonal flu vaccine per egg
    http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/10/22/quest_for_swine_flu_vaccine_giving_some_firms_a_boost/

    _____________________
    Brief Overview of Categories of H1N1/ Vaccine Investment Plays:

    I - Vaccines / Prevention
    1) Production Method / Capacity plays (NASDAQ:NVAX) (NASDAQ:VICL) (NYSE:NVS) (NASDAQ:INO)
    2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play (NASDAQ:SVA)
    3) Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) (NYSE:BAX) (NYSE:BDX)
    4) Outsourced production plays
    5) Bio -Defence (OTC:MDCGF)
    6) Anti-Mutation / Pan-Influenza Play (NYSEMKT:CVM) (NYSEMKT:NNVC) (INO)
    7) Universal Flu Vaccine Play (INO)

    II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
    1) Dealing with severe lung infections (Fludase® (DAS181)) (NYSE:CBM) (OTCQB:AEMD)
    2) ICU treatments (NASDAQ:BCRX) (NYSE:GSK) (NYSE:ROG)
    III - Population Avoidance:
    1) masks/ disinfectants… Surgical masks are good enough (NYSEMKT:APT) (NYSE:MMM) (NYSE:CLX) (NYSE:ECL) (OTCQB:PURE)

    IV - Testing do you have it? (NASDAQ:GPRO)
    1) Test kits - (NYSE:DGX)

    V - Merger / Acquisitions / Licensing (VICL) (NVAX)
    _____________________
    Sorry this is still a graphic instead of a table. I played with the table tool, but its a
    PITA to work with.

    Swine Flu Companies Discussed and Their Web Sites


    _____________________
    Swine Flu Hits Stuffed Animal World:



    2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map:
    The Link is from DoubleGuns
    flutracker.rhizalabs.com/

    I am not too happy with any of the outbreak maps. They all make the same mistake, they try to show the worlds data on one chart. This makes them SLOW.
    I will keep looking for one that works faster.
    _____________________

    Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu:

    IF YOU ARE ILL -
    * Stay in a room separate from common areas of the home and avoid contact with others as much as possible.

    * Stay at home for at least 24 hours after their fever is gone without using medicine to reduce the fever.

    * Get lots of rest and drink plenty of fluids.

    * Consider wearing a facemask, if available and tolerable, when sharing common spaces with household members. (ed - surgical masks ok).

    * Check with your healthcare provider about whether to take antiviral medication, or if fever persists, whether antibiotics are needed.

    WHEN CARING FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS THE FLU -
    *Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces that everyone touches.

    * Use detergent and very hot water to do dishes and wash clothes. It's okay to wash everyone's dishes and clothes together. Wash your hands after handling dirty laundry.

    * Designate only one adult as the caregiver. People at increased risk of severe illness from the flu should not be caregivers.

    * Although not mentioned by the Red Cross, the caregiver should probably ware a surgical mask as well when entering the sick room.

    * Deal with crisis situations calmly and confidently to give the best support to the person being cared for.
    _____________________

    MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season

    Click here to link to the Mayo tool:
    www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...

    _____________________
    Suggeted Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php

    After comparing more than two dozen possible scenarios for closing a school, the analysis suggested three optimal scenarios:

    1. A single-day influenza-related absentee rate of 5 percent

    2. Absenteeism of 4 percent or more on two consecutive days

    3. Absenteeism of 3 percent or more on three consecutive days


    Older references are stored in the MEMORY ALPHA REFERENCE LIBRARY
    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-283977/37565-memory-alpha-reference-library





    Disclosure: NVAX, NNVC, SVA, VICL (sometimes trading, sometimes holding)
Back To FocalPoint Analytics' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (129)
Track new comments
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New Current Swine Flu Concentrator. I will up date Memory Alpha this weekend.
    4 Dec 2009, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (December 4) CDC: Few Serious Reactions After Swine Flu Vaccine

     

    Serious reactions after receiving the H1N1 swine flu vaccine are rare and not significantly higher than those seen from the seasonal flu vaccine, according to a briefing at the CDC today.

     

    Director Thomas Frieden, MD presented preliminary safety data and confidence that the H1N1 vaccine will not be dogged by Guillain-Barre syndrome, the neurological disorder that was associated with the 1976 swine flu vaccine. “The likelihood that we’ll have a 1976-like problem with this year’s H1N1 influenza vaccine is vanishingly remote,” said Frieden.

     

    H1N1 flu cases fell off somewhat during the Thanksgiving week, with widespread activity reported in 25 states, a drop from 32 states in the previous week. Still, 17 children died last week of laboratory-confirmed H1N1 flu, bringing the number of child deaths to 210. That’s three times the number of flu deaths expected in children at this point in a normal flu season.

     

    “This virus is a much worse virus for younger people. The number of people, not just children, but young adults under age 50 who will get severely ill or die from this virus is much higher than it is from seasonal flu," said Frieden.
    www.webmd.com/cold-and...
    5 Dec 2009, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (December 5) WHO Pandemic (H1N1) 2009
    Weekly update
    In the temperate zone (those north of the Tropic of Cancer or south of the Tropic of Capricorn) of the northern hemisphere, the early arriving winter influenza season continues to intensify across central Europe and in parts of central, eastern, and southern Asia.

     

    Disease activity has peaked and is declining in North America and has either recently peaked or is currently peaking in much of western and northern Europe.

     

    In both Canada and the United States, influenza virus circulation remains active and geographically widespread, however, disease activity appears to have peaked in past 3 to 4 weeks. In the United States, deaths due to pneumonia and influenza continued to increase past the epidemic threshold for the past 8 weeks and cumulative rates of hospitalizations for the current influenza season have exceeded rates seen in recent seasons among all age groups except those aged ≥ 65.

     

    In Europe, widespread and intense transmission of pandemic influenza virus continued to be observed across most of the continent.

     

    In western and northern Europe the peak of disease activity has passed in Belgium, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway and parts of the United Kingdom (Northern Ireland, Wales); activity may be peaking or plateauing in Spain, Portugal, Italy, Sweden and Denmark.

     

    Influenza activity continues to increase in much of Central Europe in the region between the Baltic and Balkan countries and from Germany to Romania. In Eastern Europe, recent peaks or plateaus in disease activity have also been observed in Ukraine, Belarus, Bulgaria and the Republic of Moldova. In the Russian Federation, influenza activity remains active and intense in some regions, with an overall increasing trend. A moderate impact on the healthcare system has been reported in parts of Northern and Eastern Europe. Over 99% of subtyped influenza A viruses in Europe were pandemic H1N1 2009.

     

    In Western and Central Asia, influenza transmission remains active. Disease activity continues to increase in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Iran and Iraq, while activity may have peaked in Israel, Jordan, and Afghanistan.

     

    In East Asia, increasing respiratory disease activity has been reported in Southern China and Japan. A recent decline in activity has been observed in Northern China. In South and Southeast Asia, influenza activity continues to increase in the north-western parts of India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Cambodia, while activity in the rest of region remain low.

     

    In the tropical zone of Central and South America and the Caribbean, influenza transmission remains geographically widespread but overall disease activity has been declining except for focal areas of increasing activity in Jamaica, Venezuela, and Ecuador.

     

    In Africa, pandemic H1N1 2009 virus continues to be isolated from all parts of the continent, and there is evidence of continued co-circulation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and seasonal H3N2 viruses.

     

    In the temperate region of the southern hemisphere, little pandemic influenza activity has been reported.

     

    The Global Influenza Surveillance Network (GISN) continues monitoring the global circulation of influenza viruses, including pandemic, seasonal and other influenza viruses infecting, or with the potential to infect, humans including seasonal influenza.
    www.who.int/csr/don/20...

     

    (ed: remember it is highly likely that Pandemic H1N1 exhibits multiple infection peaks)
    6 Dec 2009, 03:59 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2674) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the world perspective. Something which did not exist in 1918 is the Transportation system for both People and Cargo.

     

    The ability to re-infect whole regions can hinge on a return to more normal shipping/traveling conditions. Different parts of the world are being treated with varying SF vaccines. Can those populations mix without reinfecting each other?
    6 Dec 2009, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Freya, I have been studying this for a while now. The idea is that all these strains are continuously mutating. 12 months down the line, each might be a very different bug, hence the constant tracking and predicting entities like the CDC does. For a long time now, America has been purchasing the vaccines made by Europeans for the European theatre, which usually overlaps the dominant strains, but is NOT the same as a custom tailored mix derived from good regional research. I learned this the past year to my eternal sorrow, when I got 2 seperate strains back to back, NEITHER of which were in the European shot I had wasted my money on.

     

    The good news is ALSO that they mutate, and often mutate from a nasty strain to a weak strain, or even a strain that will not infect many folks.
    6 Dec 2009, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2674) | Send Message
     
    Triple: I have a tendency to look at the worst case scenario because I believe that by preparing for the worst, you can be pleasantly surprised.

     

    Avian Flu, not contagious but extremely deadly, more than 50% die.
    Swine Flu, not very deadly but extremely contagious, the Death toll is disproportionately high in the USA with our Vaunted health care system.

     

    About 3 years apart. Outlook?

     

    "Human Flu", 2012, Extremely deadly, extremely Contagious, a combination of Avian and Swine flu. Immune systems compromised by SF vaccines, leaving them open to the new mutation.

     

    This is My Ultimate Black Swan.
    6 Dec 2009, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    From history we know that these "super flu" strains occur from time to time, though they are rare. Predicting when that circumstance will arise is probably impossible, but predicting that it probably WILL happen sooner or later is much less so.

     

    The logic applies to other topics as well, like asteroids hitting the Earth. The downside is SO bad that, even though no one can really make a worthwhile prediction, steps to prevent the problem are still important and need to be a planetary priority.

     

    I would say that we should definitely be trying VERY hard to head off the superflu problem before it hits. Its one reason I keep looking over and even investing in the "on the edge" small pharma companies. One of them might save us one day.

     

    On Dec 06 02:40 PM Freya wrote:

     

    > Triple: I have a tendency to look at the worst case scenario because
    > I believe that by preparing for the worst, you can be pleasantly
    > surprised.
    >
    > Avian Flu, not contagious but extremely deadly, more than 50% die.
    >
    > Swine Flu, not very deadly but extremely contagious, the Death toll
    > is disproportionately high in the USA with our Vaunted health care
    > system.
    >
    > About 3 years apart. Outlook?
    >
    > "Human Flu", 2012, Extremely deadly, extremely Contagious, a combination
    > of Avian and Swine flu. Immune systems compromised by SF vaccines,
    > leaving them open to the new mutation.
    >
    > This is My Ultimate Black Swan.
    6 Dec 2009, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2674) | Send Message
     
    I we can't put together an Energy Policy over a 30 year span, reliance on anything Governmental is like playing Russian Roulette with a Single shot Derringer.

     

    Maybe one can't predict the next outbreak but What decade in recorded history has had the equivalent of SARS, Bird Flu and now Swine Flu? Even the Common Cold has developed resistance to most Antibiotics.

     

    Virus mutation seems to have accelerated this decade.
    6 Dec 2009, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Oh, I have no great faith in government overall, LOL, as a Libertarian, my favorite flavor of government would by definition be a poor substitute for thousands of fiercely independent private companies researching like mad so that they can make money on the problem!

     

    As for the increased news regarding disease, I view this as a phenomenon of many converging technologies, not least of them the pervasive nature of news programming, thousands of cable channels, and burgeoning scientific progress. Just as with the likely truth bout HIV being that it was hanging around there for hundreds, maybe thousands of years, before we finally advance to the point where those deaths could be properly sourced, and the culprit unmasked, we might well be looking at a similar situation with other diseases like the manifold strains of flu. Its likely that we have always (as a species) shared the planet with the same mix of rapidly mutating flu viruses, with one ocassionally popping out to do extreme damage (Spanish flu, but also some very credible reports from ancient China, and legends of great plagues from biblical times). The difference today is that we now KNOW a lot more about what is happening.

     

    The other big difference is the near-instant connections linking all major population centers together. Transmittal of even a rapidly mutating virus is so fast that the danger of a pandemic of unprecedented scope is very real.

     

    So while I believe the fierceness of competition between life forms on the planet has not changed per se, the danger we have placed ourselves at is MUCH greater due to these factors.

     

    Arrogance leading to a fall...

     

    Our technology has placed us at risk, and it is only our technology that can REDUCE the risk.

     

    The lifeforms will not alter their gameplan.

     

    On Dec 06 03:15 PM Freya wrote:

     

    > I we can't put together an Energy Policy over a 30 year span, reliance
    > on anything Governmental is like playing Russian Roulette with a
    > Single shot Derringer.
    >
    > Maybe one can't predict the next outbreak but What decade in recorded
    > history has had the equivalent of SARS, Bird Flu and now Swine Flu?
    > Even the Common Cold has developed resistance to most Antibiotics.
    >
    >
    > Virus mutation seems to have accelerated this decade.
    6 Dec 2009, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » When you look at the different kinds of influenza it seems they are all variations of the same basic "thing". I can't help but wonder if the production speed of vaccines, all using the same basic immunization model, is causally linked to the mutation rate of the influenza virus. In other words, the faster you develop your counter-measures, the faster it mutates. If that is true, you will never kill it since it's always one-step ahead. It seems a better way to attack the "thing" is not to target a particular mutation, but to target aspects of the virus that allow it to mutate in the first place. If you break its mutation machinery, now you can kill it because its no longer a moving target.

     

    This raises an interesting question.. would a for-profit vaccine company pursue an approach that in the end would destroy their profitability? Another story line for a movie?

     

    Rat Silliness:
    Johnny Depp (Dr. Philologus) is the brilliant founder of a small research team working for Kindly Industrial Laboratories Limited (KILL), a for profit vaccine research and manufacturing company. The team develops a treatment that destroys the ability of any virus to mutate. On presenting it to the head of the company (Dr. Pravus), the team is treated like heroes, but than bad things start to happen to members of the team. Gruesome laboratory accidents, car crashes…. In the end, Johnny Depp and Dr Pravus are fighting on the top of the laboratory for control of the test-tube containing the new treatment. Depp ends up hanging by his hands off the edge of the roof…

     

    Dr Pravus takes the test-tube and with a maniacal laugh drinks the contents. He screams <Now my immune system is immune to all viruses - Ha ha ha! My blood is priceless!>.

     

    But wait, Johnny Depp has switched test tubes…. it seems that Dr Pravus has drunk the super mutating death virus… <Argggg> … face begins to melt … falls off roof onto giant pointed fence… squishshhh…. Co-discover of the anti-mutation formula (Dr. Bellus) comes to the rescue… they both look down as Dr Prvus melts… fade to a sunset… Message rolls up the screen… Did Dr Pravus die, or did he mutate into something else…? Screen blanks… terror stricken scream… fade to credits.
    6 Dec 2009, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5057) | Send Message
     
    Did you see this one from the Washington Times?
    I'm thinking the gravy train is over now for h1n1.
    Looking for reactions?
    www.washingtontimes.co.../
    7 Dec 2009, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, that is quite an article… Here is my reaction:
    The first issue the article raises concerns criticisms with respect to the need for an H1N1 vaccine raised by Ms. Fisher. I suggest Ms. Fisher, who makes the categorical claim of how "mild" the H1N1 pandemic is, makes that claim to a stadium full of families that suffered losses from H1N1. Claims that H1N1 is a "mild" problem is insulting to the memory of all that have died from this virus.

     

    A lot of people died because they were not vaccinated against H1N1, and most of those deaths occurred because their was no access to a vaccine. Something else that needs to be considered is how many people would have gotten sick if they had not been vaccinated against H1N1? Now consider how many people would have been exposed to H1N1 and its associated risks if there was NO vaccine? How many of those people would have died? In other words, the rate of infection has to be higher with no vaccine, and you can't spread a disease if you never caught it because you were vaccinated against it in the first place.

     

    In the current world, physical distance is no longer a major barrier to the spread of disease between countries. With a pandemic you have to think globally, not locally. H1N1 became a pandemic because it was not controlled when it first surfaced. How many people have died because of that? Given the antiquated vaccine manufacturing techniques that are still in general use, you don't have time to take a wait and see attitude with respect to purchasing vaccines. Pandemics are world wide. How long does it take to produce 500 million doses, or a billion doses? No one has production capacity to do that on a moments notice, so to be safe you must order your supplies well in advance.

     

    Another issue raised concerns why US vaccine production is handled by large European pharmaceutical companies. Yes… I would like to know the answer to that too. I think it's a strategic imperative that the US has its own vaccine production companies and research facilities. We have a government department called the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority BARDA that is presumably managing this process, supposedly in the best interests of the US. So how is BARDA performing its duties?

     

    It turns out that somewhere between two to three billion dollars have been "invested" in "partnerships" with these European drug makers over the past two years. Where I come from the term INVESTMENT means you own something. Who exactly made the decision to take US dollars and give it away to European drug makers? How does that qualify as an INVESTMENT for the American people? How can providing funds to these large European drug makers to allow them to reduce their development risks help a US drug manufacturing company? In fact, those US government funds set up ANTI-COMPETITIVE barriers against the building of US drug manufacturing capabilities. Could they be that stupid - I don't think so. I think we all have a pretty good idea that graft is involved. So why is there no investigation? Lack of an investigation is probably a signal as to how high up the graft goes.

     

    In my opinion, its a huge mistake to outsource vaccine manufacturing functionality. Its nice to have jobs from foreign owned manufacturers here, but ALL the profits, and all the manufacturing related innovations end up being owned by the European drug makers. Decisions of this nature basically cede all future innovations in that field to foreign companies. Imagine what NVAX could do with a billion dollar grant to build vaccine production capacity. Having vaccines produced by a US company in the United States keeps the profits and innovations here with US workers working for a US company.

     

    The US paying some 700M for adjuvant could also be an example of graft in action. Adjuvants for vaccines are NOT approved for use in the US. So who made that purchase decision? That entire transaction should be examined by the Department of Justice. Who profited? Who owns those companies, I mean who really owns those companies? Who signed off on the deal? Lets see the chain of supportive paperwork related to the deal. If there is no paperwork, its time to put people in prison. Of course, its doubtful that an investigation will occur because the powers behind that deal don't want it investigated. Who is pulling the strings at BARDA?

     

    My second reaction:
    This concerns the viability of H1N1 has an investment theme. I still think it’s a viable investment theme. I think there will be another surge in speculative money (trading money) as the third wave of H1N1 hits the US in January through February. During that time I have no doubt their will be trading opportunities. I also suspect the Chinese government is going to order a lot more H1N1 vaccine from SVA in the near future, and each time that happens, the stock pops.

     

    However, after February, I suspect the subject of H1N1 will move into a longer term investment category (back-burner). I believe SVA is going to significantly grow. I also see no reason for Nvax's Mexican trial to fail. So both of those stocks should provide good longer term investment opportunities.

     

    I doubt our group will need a dedicated H1N1 news concentrator after February. It would probably be a better use of our resources to either broaden the Swine Flu Concentrator into a Biotech News Concentrator, or switch the necessary supporting resources to another investing area that can benefit from the organization of theme specific news. The concentrators are here to support the renegades. So we will need to discuss the successor to the Swine Flu News Concentrator and when it should be retired in the near future.
    7 Dec 2009, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    User, you are correct on all counts, far as I am concerned.

     

    I agree, we should maintain the system, and focus it on pharma/biotech issues in general.
    7 Dec 2009, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (December 8) New York Autopsies Show 2009 H1N1 Influenza Virus Damages Entire Airway

     

    In fatal cases of 2009 H1N1 influenza, the virus can damage cells throughout the respiratory airway, much like the viruses that caused the 1918 and 1957 influenza pandemics, report researchers from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the New York City Office of Chief Medical Examiner.

     

    In all cases, the uppermost regions of the respiratory tract - the trachea and bronchial tubes - were inflamed, with severe damage in some cases. In 18 cases, evidence of damage lower down in the finer branches of the bronchial tubes, or bronchioles, was noted. In 25 cases, the researchers found damage to the small globular air sacs, or alveoli, of the lungs. "This pattern of pathology in the airway tissues is similar to that reported in autopsy findings of victims of both the 1918 and 1957 influenza pandemics."
    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    8 Dec 2009, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10521) | Send Message
     
    Delthia, Ricks writes in the DEC Discover magazine that the Indonesian minister of health Siti Supari is refusing to cooperate with WHO and CDC authorities withholding samples of H5N1 avian flu citing intellectual property rights. Concern is growing among world epidemiologists that the H1N1 Swine flu which is very contagious but relatively mild will have a clandestine meeting with H5N1 avian flu in the jungles of Indonesia and swap genetic material. H5N1 while not very contagious has a 80% mortality rate. Should mixing the two produce a virulent and deadly flu pandemic similar to the 1918 pandemic her actions will impede a global response. Supari in her book published last year postulates the theory that big Pharma and western governments plan to use H5N1 as a biological weapon against the developing nations. However in 2005 Australia's WHO affiliate obtained a sample of Indonesian H5N1 and shared it with an Australian Pharma named CSL which developed a DNA based vaccine along with the CDC which seems to be effective.This approach does not require culturing the virus and appears to be the wave of the future. A patent was filed by the CDC in 2006 and with the world intellectual property organization 18 months later. Currently the FDA has approved one H5N1 vaccine for use in the U.S. Once again the solution proposed by international organizations such as the WHO is technology transfer from developed to developing nations. It all comes down to spreading the wealth.
    8 Dec 2009, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (December 8) Doctors query ability of Tamiflu to stop severe illness
    A review published in the British Medical Journal accuses flu drug manufacturer Roche (RHHBY.PK) of withholding evidence from trials. Roche, the manufacturer of Tamiflu, has made it impossible for scientists to assess how well the anti-flu drug stockpiled around the globe works by withholding the evidence the company has gained from trials, doctors alleged today. A major review of what data there is in the public domain has found no evidence Tamiflu can prevent healthy people with flu from suffering complications such as pneumonia.

     

    Tamiflu may shorten the bout of illness by a day or so, the investigators say, but it is impossible to know whether it prevents severe disease because the published data is insufficient. Roche has failed to make some of the studies carried out on the drug publicly available, the scientists say. "Governments around the world have spent billions of pounds on a drug that the scientific community now finds itself unable to judge," said Dr Fiona Godlee, editor of the British Medical Journal, which published the new review online and collaborated in a joint investigation with Channel 4 News, shown this evening.

     

    A second review was carried out in the UK at Birmingham University by Professor Nick Freemantle and Dr Melanie Calvert, who analysed a series of observational studies Roche provided. (These are studies of people who took the drugs, but without a comparison group of people who did not take them. Although the reviewers had doubts about the data, they say it is possible Tamiflu reduced the risk of pneumonia. But if so, the benefit was small and there were side-effects to consider. Freemantle said he saw "very little evidence to support the widespread use of oseltamivir in the otherwise healthy population who are developing signs of influenza-like illness."

     

    Roche said in a response that it firmly believed in the robustness of the data. The company said governments and licensing authorities had been given access to all the trial information. Roche has now undertaken to put summaries of all the Tamiflu study data on a password-protected site. (ed: why a password protected site? This is a good time to hire an experienced PR firm to do damage control.)
    www.guardian.co.uk/wor...
    8 Dec 2009, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10521) | Send Message
     
    There has been growing concern lately that the flu viruses are becoming resistant to Tamiflu.
    8 Dec 2009, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, I see what you mean robert. Perhaps their reluctance to release current data is related to flu viruses becoming more resistant...

     

    The British Medical Journal is a big deal... This is one of those situations where even if there is data showing current effectiveness, the brand could get damaged because of an inadequate PR response. I think management needs to address the data issue, but they also need to get some positive PR out there right away. It seems to me that providing pass-word protected data might elicit people to wonder what they are hiding, even if they aren't hiding anything.
    8 Dec 2009, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10521) | Send Message
     
    Exactly TB the only reason to pass word protect the data is if you want only a selected audience to view it. You would think that they could reduce the data to make it user friendly and then let all interested parties look at it. As things are they continue to fuel speculation which is how rumors get started. Investors are people first and rumors travel at the speed of computing while facts take the scenic rout. You know the Army communications hand book directs that if you haven't heard a good rumor by lunch you should start one. (Not really).
    8 Dec 2009, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • yellowhoard
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    Eeyor: "Piglet's gotta die".

     

    Rabbit: "That's barbaric!"

     

    Pooh Bear: "The Donkey is right. Tigger, go distract that disease infested little pri#k and I'll snap his f&^king neck." "mmmm bacon."

     

    Rabbit: "Gosh Pooh! That was really f#cked up."
    8 Dec 2009, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Finished the 6.xM shares offered @ $3.30, netted ~$21M.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Dec 2009, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL LOL ... YH saw the stuffed annimal graphic at the top of the Insta and provided the comments. "The Donkey is right..." LOL LOL
    Thanks for the great laugh YH!

     

    Thanks for the info HT... now lets see what its going to do.
    9 Dec 2009, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (ed: a bit on the techie side… what the article is saying is that H1N1 has unusual capabilities with respect to its ability to mutate. One of those is responsible for its ability to function so well in Humans)

     

    (December 9) Novel Strategy Adopted By H1N1 Influenza To Enable It To Move From Birds To Humans

     

    The 2009 H1N1 influenza virus used a new strategy to cross from birds into humans, a warning that it has more than one trick up its sleeve to jump the species barrier and become virulent.

     

    In a report in this week's early online edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, researchers report that previous influenza strains that crossed from birds into people had a specific point mutation in the bird virus's polymerase gene that allowed the protein to operate efficiently inside humans as well. The 2009 H1N1 virus retains the bird version of the polymerase, but has a second mutation that seems to suppress the ability of human cells to prevent the bird polymerase from working.

     

    "We were quite shocked when we looked at the swine flu virus, which was clearly replicating in people and other mammalian systems, yet had a polymerase that looked like it was derived from a bird virus, which should not function too well in a human cell type," said UC Berkeley post-doctoral fellow Andrew Mehle of the Department of Molecular and Cell Biology. "The other mutation within the polymerase seems to compensate and allow the enzyme to function."

     

    The researchers also discovered yet another strategy - one not yet adopted by any known flu virus - by which influenza virus can increase its virulence even more. When a particular human subunit is substituted for one of the three protein subunits that make up the bird polymerase, the new combination makes the polymerase more efficient in human cells.

     

    "This is an extremely rare mutation and a rare combination, which suggests that there may be other ways that haven't emerged yet that these viruses are going to continue to evolve," said Jennifer Doudna, UC Berkeley professor of molecular and cell biology and an investigator in the Howard Hughes Medical Institute.

     

    She suggested that those monitoring influenza outbreaks around the world in search of new variants be on the lookout for this recombination of polymerase subunits, which could herald an uptick in swine flu virulence.

     

    The work was supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health.

     

    www.medicalnewstoday.c...
    9 Dec 2009, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    In light of the idea of adding pharma/bio notices here:

     

    I am tracking (DUSA) with a planned Buy@ for $1.02. Its selling in the high $1.20 range. This is a minor pharma play with some interesting products, particularly their epidermal treatments.

     

    I am also tracking (BCRX) with a planned Buy@ for $6.20. Its selling in the $6.90 range.

     

    Everyone should of course do their own DD, as usual.
    9 Dec 2009, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » BioCryst's Korean Partner Receives Emergency Use Authorization - From an article by SA's Michael Murphy

     

    BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) is a development-stage biotech company that will report over $30 million in sales in the December 2009 quarter. Peramivir, their intravenous antiviral, has been granted Emergency Use Authorization by the U.S. Food & Drug Administration for use in intensive care units against the H1N1 swine flu.

     

    BioCryst has two overseas partners, Shionogi Pharmaceuticals in Japan and Green Cross in South Korea. Green Cross has successfully completed Phase III trials of peramivir in both the hospital and outpatient settings, and will apply for final approval early next year. In advance of that, the Korea Food & Drug Administration recently granted peramivir an Emergency Use Authorization and requested 2,000 to 2,500 courses of treatment. (A course of treatment is defined as five daily doses, although more may be used for any patient that needs it.)

     

    With roughly $5.80 a share in gross profits and a stock price under $10, the big question is whether these are recurring profits. About 200,000 people a year die worldwide from complications of the flu. A drug that can keep most of them alive, while saving hospitals very expensive ICU and ventilator time, seems likely to find a recurring market.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    9 Dec 2009, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    VICL:
    Vical Advocates DNA Vaccine Approach With Pandemic Influenza Experts

     

    BRUSSELS, Belgium, Dec 9, 2009 (GlobeNewswire via COMTEX) -- Vical Incorporated (VICL) announced today that the company is addressing an international gathering of pandemic influenza vaccine experts and potential commercial partners to encourage broader use of the company's DNA vaccine technology and Vaxfectin(R) adjuvant. Larry R. Smith, Ph.D., Vical's Vice President of Vaccine Research, presented today at the World Influenza Congress Europe (Brussels -- December 7-9), an innovative forum for the discussion of influenza policy and planning, vaccine research and development, and commercialization opportunities.

     

    Dr. Smith's presentation, "DNA Vaccines: Rapid Response to Pandemic Outbreaks," highlights the unique advantages of DNA vaccines for threats such as the recent H1N1 swine flu and other emerging diseases. DNA vaccines can be developed and produced very quickly using scaleable manufacturing processes which are not dependent upon chicken eggs or other cell culture methods. They contain no infectious components and do not require any handling of the target pathogen, affording a favorable safety profile. Their inherent stability allows versatile shipping and storage conditions. Their ability to elicit both antibody and T-cell
    responses offers excellent flexibility and precise matching to the specific vulnerabilities of each pathogen. DNA vaccines can be formulated in simple saline solution, or with Vical's Vaxfectin(R) adjuvant or other excipients designed to enhance the desired type of immune response.

     

    The presentation also features Vical's RapidResponse(TM) DNA vaccine manufacturing platform, which is designed to significantly reduce the time required to develop, manufacture and deploy vaccines against emerging diseases during the early stages of an infectious outbreak. It is ideally suited to enable an immediate response against emerging diseases affecting large populations, such as pandemic influenza or severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The company is developing the RapidResponse(TM) platform under a three-year grant awarded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and has successfully completed proof-of-concept studies in animals.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Dec 2009, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Yep, I read that one, its the word that put BCRX near the top of my very scarce buy list (I'm also tracking a coal stock (ICO) right now, but that's about it).

     

    IF, as we have been discussing, there is another peak of flu invections coming soon (and I believe there is), (BCRX) could be at least a winner in the short term.

     

    On Dec 09 10:41 AM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > BioCryst's Korean Partner Receives Emergency Use Authorization -
    > From an article by SA's Michael Murphy
    >
    > BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) is a development-stage biotech company
    > that will report over $30 million in sales in the December 2009 quarter.
    > Peramivir, their intravenous antiviral, has been granted Emergency
    > Use Authorization by the U.S. Food &amp; Drug Administration for
    > use in intensive care units against the H1N1 swine flu.
    >
    > BioCryst has two overseas partners, Shionogi Pharmaceuticals in Japan
    > and Green Cross in South Korea. Green Cross has successfully completed
    > Phase III trials of peramivir in both the hospital and outpatient
    > settings, and will apply for final approval early next year. In advance
    > of that, the Korea Food &amp; Drug Administration recently granted
    > peramivir an Emergency Use Authorization and requested 2,000 to 2,500
    > courses of treatment. (A course of treatment is defined as five daily
    > doses, although more may be used for any patient that needs it.)
    >
    >
    > With roughly $5.80 a share in gross profits and a stock price under
    > $10, the big question is whether these are recurring profits. About
    > 200,000 people a year die worldwide from complications of the flu.
    > A drug that can keep most of them alive, while saving hospitals very
    > expensive ICU and ventilator time, seems likely to find a recurring
    > market.
    > seekingalpha.com/artic...
    9 Dec 2009, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    I did not even bother with tamaflu, I asked for relenza straight out. Just in case I got the resistant strain in Japan. Ended up needing it now not later.

     

    I did not have any respiratory issues at all. LOTS of body aches and trips to the toilet sometimes not knowing which ended was going in first. And a fever with chills.

     

    Seems to be over except for the fatigue now but I have 2 more days of relenza to take (inhale). Its a powder in a blister pack that you puncture and inhale through a supplied inhaler. A little tricky to figure out how to set it up when you are really feeling bad.
    9 Dec 2009, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am glad to hear you are mostly over it Guns... did you find any of the info in the concentrator helpful?
    9 Dec 2009, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5057) | Send Message
     
    Anecdotal: one of my family members told me of studies that date back to a year or two after Tamiflu became widely used, that showed it was inconclusive and/or ineffective against mutations. According to this source, the worth of Tamiflu has been highly debated among the scientific community for quite awhile, even appearing in lower level college course discussions!
    9 Dec 2009, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely. Relenza was first on my list of meds as a result of this blog.

     

    Knowing the symptoms also helped and when to start meds were benefits that eliminated the fear factor with this too. Most people are not afraid of the the known. Its the unknown that cause a lot of fear.

     

    I knew what I had and I knew what to expect and what med to take. Made it a simple realization of bed time.

     

    You dogs get in here, rit now, I'm cold.

     

    As a side note one dog also got sick and threw up 3 times. That was not fun cleaning up while I was very wheezy myself. He kept licking my hair when I was sweating. I wonder if that is a case of a dog getting swine flu? He is doing fine now.

     

    More data, no conclusion.

     

    On Dec 09 11:43 AM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > I am glad to hear you are mostly over it Guns... did you find any
    > of the info in the concentrator helpful?
    9 Dec 2009, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10769) | Send Message
     
    Guns: Glad you're back, buddy!
    9 Dec 2009, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes... dogs can catch it too...
    9 Dec 2009, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good article on VICL HT... thanks.
    9 Dec 2009, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    Still a shell of my former self. Fatigue is the issue now but otherwise feeling a lot better. Hard to believe I did not have the desire or energy to even make it to the computer room.

     

    On Dec 09 12:21 PM Mayascribe wrote:

     

    > Guns: Glad you're back, buddy!
    9 Dec 2009, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (December 9) Delhi records 246 swine flu cases Wednesday.
    New Delhi: At least 246 cases of swine flu – the highest for a single day – were recorded Wednesday in Delhi taking the number of people affected with the influenza A (H1N1) virus in the national capital to 6,598, a health department official said.

     

    “This is the highest number for a single day till now.” With the onset of winter, the second wave of the flu is expected to hit many more people.
    www.sindhtoday.net/new...
    9 Dec 2009, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Sitting just atop 200 day SMA ~$3.019. This is traditionally considered a major point. If it breaks below, we may see a good-sized drop. It's not uncommon for it to hold there.

     

    Just wanted to give all a heads up. Charts still not showing a bottom, but it has had trouble getting much more downward momentum.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Dec 2009, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I got my swine flu shot today.... I also bought more NVAX today.
    9 Dec 2009, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5743) | Send Message
     
    I have a question that may very well have been answered in a previous concentrator but I must have missed it. I understand that there are generally three waves in a pandemic. I realize that the first wave is less strong that the second wave. My question is: Is the 2nd wave or the 3rd wave generally the strongest? I suspect that the breadth of infection builds and gets worse each time, but I thought I read somewhere (years ago) that the 2nd wave was the strongest. But it makes more sense that wave 3 would do the most damage since it has a broader foundation from which to spread.
    9 Dec 2009, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (ed: I would not be surprised to see them order more vaccine from SVA in the near future)

     

    (December 9) China's A/H1N1 flu death toll on faster rise
    BEIJING: The Chinese mainland reported 125 deaths from the H1N1 influenza in the week from Nov. 30 to Dec. 6, nearly 65 percent of those reported during all of November, the Ministry of Health announced Wednesday.

     

    The total number of confirmed cases of H1N1 flu in the mainland had topped 100,000 and 31.61 million people had been vaccinated as of Wednesday, according to the ministry.

     

    news.xinhuanet.com/eng...?
    9 Dec 2009, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi Mark
    The Swine Flu pandemic seems to be following the course of the 1918 - 1919 Pandemic. That implies three waves, with the second wave having the most infections.

     

    I looked at that similarity in the following Instablog
    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    There should be another wave corresponding with the peak influenza season in a country. In the US that would be January - February. As of now we can only hope the third peak is lower than the second. I think part of the reason for a lower peak in the third wave is because a lot of people already got infected prior to the third wave.
    9 Dec 2009, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10521) | Send Message
     
    Seems like our troll has returned. Hi Troll.
    9 Dec 2009, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2674) | Send Message
     
    Not to worry, whats a troll here or there, Its the Orcs I worry about.

     

    Unnoticed and apparently unloved, Medicago is silently moving up the food chain. You gotta remember that they specialize in the Avian Flu variety
    10 Dec 2009, 05:16 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10521) | Send Message
     
    Easy for a Dragon to say. Can those things swim? I'm paddling as fast as I can. No gas in the Evenrude.
    10 Dec 2009, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    User, I'm thinking that modern mass movements of people at warp speed between landmasses will warp the progress of the pandemic (as compared to 1918, when world travel was exceptional and much slower).

     

    I'm thinking we have just gone through the FIRST smallish "bump", which will be quickly followed by the second, larger one.
    10 Dec 2009, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Sea Dragons like Freya can make 30 knots, underwater, though they are a bit slower maneuvering on the surface.
    10 Dec 2009, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    CVM has taken off, for no apparent reason:

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    I'm not buying, though I AM interested if it dips below $1 again. If I were not deep into turtle-phase right now, I would probably be more willing to take a chance on a trade about now, though...

     

    Sigh. Discipline is a harsh mistress.
    10 Dec 2009, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10521) | Send Message
     
    I am quite certain Freya can handle all manner of Trolls and Orcs. Unlike old war horses who have enough trouble getting both oars in the water at the same time. LOL. (VIV) paid their dividend today. Sweet! I'm thinking about selling them.
    10 Dec 2009, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree triple, people do move faster and more frequently now. However, consider that its highly likely that most of the reported deaths associated with the 1918 - 1919 pandemic were more likely to be from the western hemisphere. In addition, the pandemic started up during the last months of WW1. Then there was a mass movement of troops going home. So there was an unusual amount of mass movement of people (inter-mixing) moving out of France heading back home.

     

    The next question concerns what wave we are in. I tried to answer that very question in my Instablog - Will Swine Flu Exhibit Multiple Infection Waves?.
    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    I did that because I read articles talking about the "eerie" similarities of the Swine Flu pandemic with the 1918 - 1919 pandemic. The chief similarities were an early spike during the summer, and structural similarities between the 1918 - 1919 and H1N1 virus strains.

     

    The first chart in that Instablog is of deaths per 1,000 during the 1918 - 1919 Pandemic. The chart shows that the frequency distribution of deaths is clearly multi-modal (multiple waves). The number of deaths has it's first peak in the summer, its primary peak in October / November, followed by a third peak in March.

     

    Now what about H1N1? I could not find number of US deaths per 1,000 at the resolution of weekly reports so I generated the second chart using data from Quest Diagnostics confirmed H1N1 infections in the US as of late November.

     

    I assumed it was likely that the death rate from H1N1 is relatively constant, therefore, the number of confirmed H1N1 infections reported by Quest should be proportional to the number of deaths per week. If that assumption is correct, than the number of weekly infections should exhibit a similar frequency distribution as the number of deaths. The more reported infections, the greater the number of deaths. Remember, I was not trying to predict the number of deaths, I was trying to estimate the form of the frequency distribution with respect to the number of peaks already experienced.

     

    I used specialized software that searches for evidence concerning the presence of multiple frequency distributions in the Quest dataset. Sure enough, the software indicated the presence of two different frequency distributions. The peaks for those two distributions were in similar time locations as the peaks for the first two 1918 - 1919 pandemic.

     

    So as of the time I performed that analysis we had already experienced two waves of H1N1 infections in the US. I reasoned that since seasonal influenza normally peaks in the US during January and February (see chart in the same instablog), it seems logical that we will see another wave of H1N1 starting up in January, peaking sometime in February- March. Which is also in close concordance with what happened in 1918 - 1919.

     

    So we have two hypotheses (guesses) here. One says we just experienced the preliminary peak, and therefore the worse is yet to come. The other says we just experienced the primary peak, and while another peak is coming, it should not be as bad. I do believe the data suggests that we have just experienced a second peak. However, we have no data at this point in time that will enable us to predict the size of the next peak. We only have conjecture on that point.
    10 Dec 2009, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10521) | Send Message
     
    User: Greetings. The absence of reliable data is understandable and seemingly intentional. The CDC quit compiling H1N1 data in July and did not require or accept input from health care sources after that. The POTUS declared a national emergency in response to the H1N1 pandemic in NOV. Not surprisingly nothing much happened as vaccine was not readily available and people were not dropping dead in droves. Another fabricated emergency? You make the call.
    10 Dec 2009, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    Day 5 still in recovery but a lot of fatigue. Did not get out of bed till 8:45 today. No fever, few aches but dog tired. Today is day 4 of Relenza.

     

    Lots of work to catch up on sorry not able to comment much but I figured an update for all those future infected might be helpful.

     

    Keep up the good work USER, it was invaluable and will be for others.

     

    Thanks
    10 Dec 2009, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10769) | Send Message
     
    Guns: This morning, I called my doc's office about when they would get some vaccines. No word yet, and they are not telling them when the vaccines will become available. My doc is this area's head of rare diseases, and still he can't get the shots.
    10 Dec 2009, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Swashbuckler
    , contributor
    Comments (715) | Send Message
     
    Guns---I tried colloidal silver in the early nineties for about 1 1/2 yrs to treat some of the more popular illnesses (colds, flu, allergies). Didn't have any luck with it either. Maybe it's effectiveness depends on a person's anatomy or genetics, I don't know. I hope you are recovered and up to speed in time to fully enjoy Christmas and New Year's.
    10 Dec 2009, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10521) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. What did you say that pissed off the Troll? I hope you are in snapping turtle mode.
    10 Dec 2009, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am no friend of the CDC, and particularly BARDA (see my earlier post about BARDA). However, the notion that H1N1 was a fabricated emergency seems to be a harsh conclusion, particularly given all the people that lost a family member to H1N1. A lot of people died in Mexico from H1N1, and that probably served as the "canary in the mine" for many health professionals. We still don't know why H1N1 seemed to be more virulent in Mexico. Was there some kind of genetic interaction, was it a reflection of the population's health system, was it a total lack of vaccines? In the absence of reliable data, I believe it could be argued that the CDC took a "better to be safe than sorry" approach.

     

    Of course, it is possible that the CDC "pumped" the threat for the purpose of gaining exposure or some other kind of gain. For one thing, I would have thought it was a statutory responsibility for public health systems to collect data on infection rates and outcomes, and that responsibility could not be abrogated.

     

    I also believe that the CDC's behaviour, and particularly BARDA have been irresponsible on several fronts, including their lack of support for US vaccine makers. I think the CDC should have provided a lot more support for start-up US companies working on new ways to produce vaccines more rapidly than the traditional chicken egg method.

     

    There have been several questionable decisions made, including the one to purchase adjuvant when adjuvant's are not used in the US. I suppose they would say it was purchased for emergency purposes just in case the virus was so dangerous that any means that extended the vaccine supply might be considered under an Emergency edict. Worse case, it could have involved a pay-off. That decisions should be thoroughly investigated… follow the money.

     

    Another strange decision was the payment of billions of US dollars used to "reduce development" risks for non-US vaccine manufacturers, including grants for these non-US companies to build manufacturing facilities in the US. I find that decision highly questionable, and totally irresponsible. That money should have been used to reduce development risks and help build manufacturing facilities for US based companies. Let other countries and non-US companies come up with their own money.

     

    So while I believe its premature to say the CDC deliberately fabricated an emergency in order to profit from the resultant hue and cry, I do believe there are sufficient levels of reasonable doubts about their behaviours to warrant a critical review of the CDC and particularly BARDA. An investigation of those decisions needs to be made. That investigation should be conducted by some kind of watch dog agency, NOT THE CONGRESS.
    10 Dec 2009, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10521) | Send Message
     
    User: I think that the CDC did as they were told by Team Obama. Why else would they stop data collection in such an abrupt and irresponsible manner? I didn't intend to down play the significance of H1N1 especially for those who lost loved ones. However it is clear that seasonal flu has a higher mortality rate than the current strain of Swine flu at least in the U.S. and does not provoke an emergency declaration even though that vaccine is also in short supply this year. What I am suggesting is that the emergency declaration from the POTUS may have been engineered to distract the electorate. After all it's their motto that no emergency should be wasted.
    10 Dec 2009, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5743) | Send Message
     
    Am I considered a Troll? Is that the point of the comment closely following mine?

     

    On Dec 09 06:56 PM robert.b.ferguson wrote:

     

    > Seems like our troll has returned. Hi Troll.
    10 Dec 2009, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    LOL, no, you just play one on TV.

     

    I think our thumbtrolls are from under the opposite end of the bridge.

     

    On Dec 10 12:37 PM Mark Bern wrote:

     

    > Am I considered a Troll?
    10 Dec 2009, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Who, me? It was all YH's fault, LOL. OK, MAYBE me (and some others) nominating BHO for D-Bag of the Year (DBOY for short) could have had SOMETHING to do about it, and SAS removed our nominations, including (oddly enough) one for Soros.

     

    On Dec 10 12:02 PM robert.b.ferguson wrote:

     

    > TB: Greetings. What did you say that pissed off the Troll? I hope
    > you are in snapping turtle mode.
    10 Dec 2009, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5743) | Send Message
     
    While we're on the subject, I have noticed that someone is consistently knocking my score down. I normally don't notice, but I have been busy elsewhere for the last week or two and only commenting occasionally, but I do check to see where everybody in the group is at least once a week and lately my score is going down. This is happening even though I have gotten many more thumbs up than thumbs down on my recent comments.

     

    I suspect that there is one of two things going on:

     

    1) Someone is methodically going into my old comments and giving me thumbs down on a regular basis (It's happening every day now that I have noticed and have started keeping track).
    2) Someone is consistently hitting the Report abuse button on some of my old comments to make them get deleted.

     

    Has anyone else noticed such action? I guess a third possibility is that SA Editors are deleting some of my older comments on a regular basis. I just don't have time to go through and track them all. But if someone deletes one of my high rated comments, I'll notice. I don't have many with 50 or more thumbs up, but there are a few. I guess I just put out some bait, didn't I?
    10 Dec 2009, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Mark, SOME trolls are free lance, and some are professionals, and a very few may be in a position to abuse a form of authority. Its hard to tell, as you said.
    10 Dec 2009, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5743) | Send Message
     
    I just did a quick check and counted the thumbs on my first (most recent page) of comments: 58 up, 6 down. Yet I am down by about 30 in the same time. This is so strange. Well, maybe they did take down one of my better comments. Who knows. I guess I shouldn't sweat the small stuff.
    10 Dec 2009, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Far as I can tell, I have lost 10-15% of my score since yesterday. You're right, Mark, we have a pickpocket working the crowd.

     

    On Dec 10 01:26 PM Mark Bern wrote:

     

    > I just did a quick check and counted the thumbs on my first (most
    > recent page) of comments: 58 up, 6 down. Yet I am down by about 30
    > in the same time. This is so strange. Well, maybe they did take down
    > one of my better comments. Who knows. I guess I shouldn't sweat the
    > small stuff.
    10 Dec 2009, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10521) | Send Message
     
    Mark, Burns: Greetings. No I was not accusing any one and it seems doubtful to me that you would indiscriminately or unfairly dish out thumbs down here.

     

    On Dec 10 12:37 PM Mark Bern wrote:

     

    > Am I considered a Troll? Is that the point of the comment closely
    > following mine?
    10 Dec 2009, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1418) | Send Message
     
    A lot of effort for some free Zack's, imho, as only the comments can be easily affected (vs stock talks, climbers, etc.)

     

    Or maybe a few glitches, as a couple of my attempts to thumbs up a zero score gave me the response "you have already voted on this comment."
    10 Dec 2009, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Guns, I am glad you found it to be of some use. When I started the SF concentrator, I wanted it to serve a dual purpose… one for investments, one for information on how to deal with something that might threaten a person and their family.

     

    Maya, I got my shot yesterday. The doctor said that the demand was low in my area, so the restrictions were relaxed. If those restrictions were not relaxed, no way would I have been able to get it. I suspect a lot of doctors are just saying they don't have it as opposed to saying yes, we have it, but you or your family member can't have it because they don't fit the profile.

     

    Considering how much time it had to take to provide those negative ratings, I guessed that the troll has a motive. I guessed that motive might be related to an attempt to move up in the ratings. I figure the quickest way to move up in the ratings is to 1) provide a lot of one liner posts, 2) negative ratings on people directly ahead of you, and 3) use of multiple accounts to inflate your ratings while deflating other peoples ratings. If that strategy is being followed, I figure the movement of that person up the ratings would be abnormally fast. Does anyone see someone that has moved unbelievably rapidly up the ratings starting about the time we started to get negative thumbs down?
    10 Dec 2009, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10521) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Greetings. It kind of goes against the spirit of the whole being rated by ones peers doesn't it but I understand the sentiment. I'm the new kid on the block and my score goes up and down depending on how bone headed my comments are. I don't seem to be getting picked on that much may be I'm to small of a fish to fry. Some folks are seemingly on a hit list though like TB. I find TB's comments and every one else's in this group to be knowledgeable, insightful, amusing and helpful it puzzles me that some one would be so petty.
    10 Dec 2009, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1418) | Send Message
     
    Hey...why did that get a thumb's down? Just thought it might be related to the leaders being (properly) recognized with the complementary subscription? Probably get another one.
    10 Dec 2009, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10521) | Send Message
     
    Looking back this seems to have started with the DBOY thread. Seems like the top ten folks are getting the most action with YH,TB, Maya and Guns leading the way. Less action in the top twenty and very little top fifty HTL is getting a little more flack than I am. While lower 98th poses an interesting theory if this was about a subscription this would be concentrated in the top 100 as any leader board position would do. This smacks of some thing else. We currently don't have any top 100 folks posting regularly in this group so I really can't tell what is going on I suspect this is largely isolated to the renegades. This seems to be directed at the higher scoring posters/contributors. Does any one else see this?
    10 Dec 2009, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2674) | Send Message
     
    Etal: whenever you notice a large variation in the Net rating, you should randomly give an UP even though you are sure that you have already done so. If it registers again, then its an SA staffer(s) removing the thumbs Up votes. One Eye noticed this after I was nuked.

     

    Please note, the number of new downs is in direct correlation to the number of comments made which is logical. Where can you find large concentrations of comments by our Groupies? OG's Quick Chats, where else.

     

    If I wanted to do a number on the Group, I would go through each of the Quick Chats and give a thumbs down to all. What to look for in trying to ID the perp? See who didn't get a Down and see if those individuals have identical followers.

     

    That's how I track down "clones", Commentators who only show up in specific articles to aid in a specific point of view with hardly any variation.

     

    Since we both use the Same computer to access the web, One Eye and others can only use it when I don't. I'm a regular Oinker when it comes down to it, so I tend to want it avaiable at all times. Go figure.
    10 Dec 2009, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I see the same pattern robert. Maya went down 228 votes last night. During that same time period another person went up by 304 - in one night with no new comments during that time period, a person with less than 35 followers.

     

    Sounds like the same force at work there. I belive the reason the top 10 are now getting the most action is because they are ahead of this person. Back a few days ago, the people in the top 20 were getting the most action.

     

    I think the person has multiple accounts, and some of those multiple accounts are following the "targets".
    10 Dec 2009, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Swashbuckler
    , contributor
    Comments (715) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Troll----I have not been getting hit near as hard as the others by your thumbing down of comments. Maybe that is because my score is much lower than the others. If that is the case, I do believe you are unfairly discriminating against me. Regardless, I take this insult as an assault on my integrity. Unless I see significant thumbs-downing in the next few days, I will be forced to lodge a formal complaint with SA about your thoughtless partiality, rank prejudice, and blatant and heartless discrimination. Remember, if I am not torched by a few hundred thumbs down in the next few days, IT'S ON.
    10 Dec 2009, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2674) | Send Message
     
    robert, you aren't the new kid on the block, "lower98th" is. But it really has nothing to do with new commentators or their comments. Its Guilt by association at work here.

     

    Personally, being in the Top 10 means little to me, Been there, Done that.

     

    Please consider that our growing group entices people whose interest lies in Investing. An occasional comment will show up by someone totally unknown asking for help on a specific stock or giving help on it. Never to be heard from again.

     

    Hell, the Perp(s) may be followers of a specific commentator whose standing may be in Jeopardy. They may feel it necessary to Zap anyone coming through the ranks who might have a chance to displace him/her.
    10 Dec 2009, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    SA can identify the troll if it wants too. Mechanism? Well, if your (normally) try to vote a second time, it "knows" you already voted.

     

    How? Only two ways. Either they track it on a server or they track it with cookies.

     

    On the server they can run various sorts and accumulations and identify potential culprits for a closer look.

     

    If it's cookies, the web interface (probably java or php code) can pull down the cookies and then analyze as above.

     

    But they need to be aware and actually have an interest.

     

    E-mails to SA time? Why should a few selfish individuals/companies be allowed to spoil the "peer review" process that SA has tried to provide? The fact that it is flawed in implementation, in my opinion (allows you to vote for yourself), is irrelevant. What we all use and try to use effectively should not be corrupted by what has been described.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2009, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2674) | Send Message
     
    Etal, just to test out a theory of mine, how about a steady round of applause for a Swine Flu survivor.

     

    Double Guns is the patient giving a blow by blow commentary on dealing with SF. I say we all give him a T Up. Lets see how the Perp(s) react.
    10 Dec 2009, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    I've started. I'll do the same as I did for other valued users who had troubles recently. It'll take a few days.

     

    HardToLove

     

    On Dec 10 03:20 PM Freya wrote:

     

    > Etal, just to test out a theory of mine, how about a steady round
    > of applause for a Swine Flu survivor.
    >
    > Double Guns is the patient giving a blow by blow commentary on dealing
    > with SF. I say we all give him a T Up. Lets see how the Perp(s) react.
    10 Dec 2009, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (716) | Send Message
     
    A few weeks ago, I vaguely remember an argument between Moon Kil Woong and someone else(can't remember who), saying one or the other was trying to manipulate the thumb count.
    10 Dec 2009, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2674) | Send Message
     
    HTL: don't waste time on me, I just want to be useful. "Investing" is the name of the Game for me. Everything else (well, almost ) is just Noise.
    10 Dec 2009, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Interesting. Go to DG's profile, click comments, go to the last one there, click view article. His comments (3) are not shown, AFAICT, but his comments are still in his list of comments. 3 more on the prior page also not there.

     

    HardToLove

     

    On Dec 10 03:29 PM H. T. Love wrote:

     

    > I've started. I'll do the same as I did for other valued users who
    > had troubles recently. It'll take a few days.
    >
    > HardToLove
    10 Dec 2009, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Swashbuckler
    , contributor
    Comments (715) | Send Message
     
    Nice bit of sleuthing User. I checked out Corpus Christi's comment stream, and there are obviously multiple accounts. I mean, 6 or 8 thumbs up over and over for comments that don't say a damn thing. And every comment starts life with a plus one. I mean, with under 35 followers, it just doesn't figure that he can roll with the big boys. Corpus has put up 44 comments so far in the past 2 days. I wonder what that's about? Give me a break.

     

    On Dec 10 03:00 PM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > I see the same pattern robert. Maya went down 228 votes last night.
    > During that same time period another person went up by 304 - in one
    > night with no new comments during that time period, a person with
    > less than 35 followers.
    >
    > Sounds like the same force at work there. I belive the reason the
    > top 10 are now getting the most action is because they are ahead
    > of this person. Back a few days ago, the people in the top 20 were
    > getting the most action.
    >
    > I think the person has multiple accounts, and some of those multiple
    > accounts are following the "targets".
    10 Dec 2009, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1418) | Send Message
     
    I would still be a fly on the wall except I thought AR should be mildly chided for assuming he had an all male audience. Didn't realize there was history. New kid. I like that. Kind of like being occasionally carded.

     

    This is a useful group, and a nice variety of viewpoints. Having fired my Less-Wealth Manager in summer of 08 for refusing to raise cash (deja vu 2000) while he made soothing "don't worry your pretty head about it" noises, I took back the reins - after a decade off and with a lot of rust.

     

    I've found better here. And if I want to choose another money manager, which I probably will, reading posts and articles on SA tells me more about his/her investing character than any prospectus.
    10 Dec 2009, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Copan
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Swash: You kill me. Hilarious stuff!
    10 Dec 2009, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2674) | Send Message
     
    Copan: nice Avatar.

     

    lower: you've just been replaced. Your carding days are over.

     

    I just wish I could go back that far with what I know now. I would be the Benign Ruler of a medium sized Country by now.
    10 Dec 2009, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (December 10) CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Influenza Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths in the United States, April – November 14, 2009

     

    CDC has updated the estimates to include the time period from April through November 14, 2009.

     

    * CDC estimates that between 34 million and 67 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April and November 14, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 47 million people infected with 2009 H1N1.

     

    * CDC estimates that between about 154,000 and 303,000 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations occurred between April and November 14, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 213,000 H1N1-related hospitalizations.

     

    * CDC estimates that between about 7,070 and 13,930 2009 H1N1-related deaths occurred between April and November 14, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 9,820 2009 H1N1-related deaths.

     

    According to the CDC, the estimates underscore the substantial under-reporting that occurs when laboratory-confirmed outcomes are the sole method used to capture hospitalizations and deaths. Since the outbreak began in April, states have reported 2009 H1N1 hospitalizations and deaths to CDC. Cumulative reports of laboratory-confirmed 2009 H1N1 hospitalizations and deaths for the same period used in this analysis (April through October 17, 2009), are 17,283 hospitalizations and 1,004 deaths.

     

    The CDC has maintained since the beginning of the outbreak that laboratory-confirmed data on hospitalizations and deaths reported to CDC is an underestimation of the true number that have occurred because of incomplete testing, inaccurate test results, or diagnosis that attribute hospitalizations and deaths to other causes, for example, secondary complications to influenza.
    www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/es...
    10 Dec 2009, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Too late. Besides, I don't consider offering support where I can for wronged folks a waste. But I was referring to DG in this case. I took care of you awhile back and then went back into "normal" mode. From that point on, I gave "ups" when I visited articles you commented on - most, but not all - and liked your comment ( does five 9s have any meaning for you?). :-)).

     

    Maya and some others helped out before you got back too - I don't know all who chipped in.

     

    HardToLove

     

    On Dec 10 03:36 PM Freya wrote:

     

    > HTL: don't waste time on me, I just want to be useful. "Investing"
    > is the name of the Game for me. Everything else (well, almost ) is
    > just Noise.
    10 Dec 2009, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    LOL, agreed, I'd settle for you just being the ruler of this one large one!

     

    On Dec 10 05:00 PM Freya wrote:

     

    > Copan: nice Avatar.
    >
    > lower: you've just been replaced. Your carding days are over. <br/>
    >
    > I just wish I could go back that far with what I know now. I would
    > be the Benign Ruler of a medium sized Country by now.
    10 Dec 2009, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    I have a show starting tomorrow, and then Saturday, so I will be more scarce than normal, but I agree, I'm going to see what I can do for DG (though I have been doing what I could with current postings the last few days anyway). I have some time right now, though...

     

    Anyone who needs me can contact me via my web site or via OG, Freya, or DG. I will check my email when I can, assuming we don't see lots of customers, which might happen, this is an "experimental" show.

     

    Off to datamine DG's postings. I expect I will learn a great deal!

     

    On Dec 10 07:16 PM H. T. Love wrote:

     

    > Too late. Besides, I don't consider offering support where I can
    > for wronged folks a waste. But I was referring to DG in this case.
    > I took care of you awhile back and then went back into "normal" mode.
    > From that point on, I gave "ups" when I visited articles you commented
    > on - most, but not all - and liked your comment ( does five 9s have
    > any meaning for you?). :-)).
    >
    > Maya and some others helped out before you got back too - I don't
    > know all who chipped in.
    >
    > HardToLove
    10 Dec 2009, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Copan
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Freya: Thanks! That is a (partial) line drawing given to me of Waxaklujuun Ub'ah K'awhiil, the 13th king of Copan. The whole and very excellent and accurate drawing is representitive of an actual monument the stands about ten feet tall in the Great Plaza in Copan. The king was a prolific builder and lover of the arts. He met his demise violently in a battle with little sister city of Quirgua, located along the Motagua River in present day Guatemala. Literally, "a tale of two cities." The time period in my novel is later, during the sixteenth king. So, I am not giving anything away. I will say that he has a modern day look-a-like.

     

    ####

     

    Waxaklajuun is now here, dressed out in full battle regalia, ready to defend and protect his citizens!
    10 Dec 2009, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10521) | Send Message
     
    Greetings all: Good luck on your show TB. What exactly is an experimental show? Swash said that user had figured out the identity of the Troll over on O.G.s Chat #26. I was leaving work at that point and didn't get back until now. He also said that it's some one I follow but the only name I saw was Corpus Christy whom I don't follow. Any ideas?
    10 Dec 2009, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • Musashi
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    A dashing warrior indeed.

     

    On Dec 10 08:10 PM Copan wrote:

     

    > Freya: Thanks! That is a (partial) line drawing given to me of Waxaklujuun
    > Ub'ah K'awhiil, the 13th king of Copan. The whole and very excellent
    > and accurate drawing is representitive of an actual monument the
    > stands about ten feet tall in the Great Plaza in Copan. The king
    > was a prolific builder and lover of the arts. He met his demise violently
    > in a battle with little sister city of Quirgua, located along the
    > Motagua River in present day Guatemala. Literally, "a tale of two
    > cities." The time period in my novel is later, during the sixteenth
    > king. So, I am not giving anything away. I will say that he has a
    > modern day look-a-like.
    >
    > ####
    >
    > Waxaklajuun is now here, dressed out in full battle regalia, ready
    > to defend and protect his citizens!
    10 Dec 2009, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    By 'experimental' I mean its a location, date and type of Art show we have not done before. Its liable to be a bust, but you never know until you try different approaches. This close to Christmas its mostly for my wife's benefit, she makes jewelry (fireraine.etsy.com). My stuff is just along for shock value, LOL.

     

    I am not sure who they are talking about, but I just gave DB about 100 thumbs, even though I am outa time tonight.

     

    On Dec 10 09:10 PM robert.b.ferguson wrote:

     

    > Greetings all: Good luck on your show TB. What exactly is an experimental
    > show? Swash said that user had figured out the identity of the Troll
    > over on O.G.s Chat #26. I was leaving work at that point and didn't
    > get back until now. He also said that it's some one I follow but
    > the only name I saw was Corpus Christy whom I don't follow. Any ideas?
    10 Dec 2009, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Swashbuckler
    , contributor
    Comments (715) | Send Message
     
    robert---Read User's 3:00 PM post on this thread today. Then do the math.
    Since I used to live in Corpus, that name comes to mind.

     

    On Dec 10 09:10 PM robert.b.ferguson wrote:

     

    > Greetings all: Good luck on your show TB. What exactly is an experimental
    > show? Swash said that user had figured out the identity of the Troll
    > over on O.G.s Chat #26. I was leaving work at that point and didn't
    > get back until now. He also said that it's some one I follow but
    > the only name I saw was Corpus Christy whom I don't follow. Any ideas?
    10 Dec 2009, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    LOL, I think I have it. OK.
    10 Dec 2009, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    CVM still on my radar...

     

    investorshub.advfn.com...
    10 Dec 2009, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    Triple is that your chart?
    10 Dec 2009, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2674) | Send Message
     
    Uranium Lovers update:

     

    go.infomine.com/?re=13...

     

    Weakness now, but 5 years from now?
    11 Dec 2009, 02:42 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    I wish they had a reverse sort. That way I could see how sorry you were and note with amazement how far you've come - a brilliant fellow no doubt! ;-)) <*clink of mugs*>

     

    HardToLove

     

    On Dec 10 08:04 PM doubleguns wrote:

     

    > Hey all if we can identify the troll a swarm of renegades could smack
    > the hell out of his comments pretty good. We could hit him from all
    > 4 sides at one time. I think that would send him back to the bottom
    > of the barrel for a good long time.
    >
    > If y'all are looking at my comments please sort my comments by highest,
    > it makes me look smarter and my follies are thus buried a long way
    > off and much farther from view. hahaha
    11 Dec 2009, 05:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    M. E. Garza has an interesting instablog this morning. I'm intrigued. Takes a gander at a company with a different way to handle medical waste and seems to me like it has a future.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    HardToLove
    11 Dec 2009, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    Just sort and start from the back. Geez I'm giving you this info. hahaha, Cheers.

     

    On Dec 11 05:39 AM H. T. Love wrote:

     

    > I wish they had a reverse sort. That way I could see how sorry you
    > were and note with amazement how far you've come - a brilliant fellow
    > no doubt! ;-)) <*clink of mugs*>
    >
    > HardToLove
    11 Dec 2009, 07:14 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    I see the troll was here last night. More thumbs down.

     

    Day 6 feeling pretty good. In Fact stayed up way too late last night but I had a nap during the day. No electricity at work yesterday so we had to close. I finally got my email read and cleaned out.

     

    Pain in upper back and neck essentially gone, lower back, hips, legs fine. Still taking 2 aspirins when I get up and go to bed. Today is last day of Relenza.

     

    Over all the first 2 days are the worst and after that it's fatigue and body ache getting better each day. Maybe occasional headache but the aspirins work for that too.
    11 Dec 2009, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    No. One I stumbled upon last night. I am not that intent on CVM.

     

    On Dec 10 11:28 PM doubleguns wrote:

     

    > Triple is that your chart?
    11 Dec 2009, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    LOL, also note that this troll who "...never voted a thumbs down on your comments" has a grand total of 1 (ONE) comment.

     

    A troll and dumb to boot.

     

    On Dec 11 07:59 AM Bill Engle wrote:

     

    > I read your comment, and didn't like it, or the fact that your buddies
    > are voting themselves up multiple times on these chat strings. So
    > you have a new voter. Previously I have never voted a thumbs down
    > on your comments, so take note.
    11 Dec 2009, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    BUT a busy troll. Must be unemployed.
    11 Dec 2009, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Just to be sure, you did catch that I was joking around, right?

     

    HardToLove

     

    On Dec 11 07:14 AM doubleguns wrote:

     

    > Just sort and start from the back. Geez I'm giving you this info.
    > hahaha, Cheers.
    11 Dec 2009, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    Yep and my comment was humor back at ya:-)

     

    Maybe I'm not a good comedian.
    11 Dec 2009, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    HTL I have to admit that I am still pretty sorry at times and probably always will have those days, ask my wife she will confirm it :-)
    11 Dec 2009, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Swashbuckler
    , contributor
    Comments (715) | Send Message
     
    In the spirit of fairness, I could use a new voter too. And just to be clear, I ALWAYS vote in one direction on these chat strings.

     

    On Dec 11 07:59 AM Bill Engle wrote:

     

    > I read your comment, and didn't like it, or the fact that your buddies
    > are voting themselves up multiple times on these chat strings. So
    > you have a new voter. Previously I have never voted a thumbs down
    > on your comments, so take note.
    11 Dec 2009, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    User, I am truly sorry that I helped pull this mess into your neatly organized and valuable Concentrator!

     

    Sometimes I act as though I was raised in a barn!
    11 Dec 2009, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (4823) | Send Message
     
    It can't be cookies or clearing your cookies would allow you to vote again, right? (It doesn't , I tested). So it is on the server. And you're right, it would be easy to profile.

     

    On Dec 10 03:19 PM H. T. Love wrote:

     

    > SA can identify the troll if it wants too. Mechanism? Well, if your
    > (normally) try to vote a second time, it "knows" you already voted.
    >
    >
    > How? Only two ways. Either they track it on a server or they track
    > it with cookies.
    >
    > On the server they can run various sorts and accumulations and identify
    > potential culprits for a closer look.
    >
    > If it's cookies, the web interface (probably java or php code) can
    > pull down the cookies and then analyze as above.
    >
    > But they need to be aware and actually have an interest.
    >
    > E-mails to SA time? Why should a few selfish individuals/companies
    > be allowed to spoil the "peer review" process that SA has tried to
    > provide? The fact that it is flawed in implementation, in my opinion
    > (allows you to vote for yourself), is irrelevant. What we all use
    > and try to use effectively should not be corrupted by what has been
    > described.
    >
    > HardToLove
    11 Dec 2009, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5057) | Send Message
     
    NVAX falling. I wouldn't pick it up at this level. Going to wait for $2.80+-. Near as I can figure, based upon valuation.
    11 Dec 2009, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (4823) | Send Message
     
    You all realize what is happening here, right? We have thumbs inflation. A thumb (up or down) used to count for something. Now it takes 5 or ten to get anywhere. Pretty soon a wheelbarrow full of thumbs is going to be required just to buy one stock tip. Either we need a new currency (maybe a foot) or maybe we can establish some sort of credit system whereby we can borrow thumbs against our future thumb earnings. Just a thought. What could go wrong?

     

    On Dec 10 03:00 PM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > I see the same pattern robert. Maya went down 228 votes last night.
    > During that same time period another person went up by 304 - in one
    > night with no new comments during that time period, a person with
    > less than 35 followers.
    >
    > Sounds like the same force at work there. I belive the reason the
    > top 10 are now getting the most action is because they are ahead
    > of this person. Back a few days ago, the people in the top 20 were
    > getting the most action.
    >
    > I think the person has multiple accounts, and some of those multiple
    > accounts are following the "targets".
    11 Dec 2009, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (4823) | Send Message
     
    Bill,
    Taking your comment at face value I would just suggest that the problem lies in the way this peer review feedback is set up and not in the activity of these "buddies." The voting is a response to arbitrary negative input from multiple, likely bogus sources. To what end is unclear, but I think the idea that top commenters are getting benefits now and they have a naturally better platform to promote their points of view or their businesses or ventures has some credence. Then there is the idea that some people just like a confined arena where they can come out "on top" even if that means cheating a little along the way.

     

    Perhaps you could think of a more effective peer review process that would be less subject to gaming? I can't. And it doesn't matter a great deal to me. If thumbs up are meaningless, then arbitrarily promoting other members of the group is harmless. On the other hand, if thumbs up have some importance, then protecting one another from arbitrary retribution is perfectly legit.

     

    On Dec 11 07:59 AM Bill Engle wrote:

     

    > I read your comment, and didn't like it, or the fact that your buddies
    > are voting themselves up multiple times on these chat strings. So
    > you have a new voter. Previously I have never voted a thumbs down
    > on your comments, so take note.
    11 Dec 2009, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    You are right, imo. I have been carrying it as a Buy@ $2.90 for a while, and now I would let it extend until it plateaus assuming it hits that area soon, which seems likely.

     

    On Dec 11 11:33 AM optionsgirl wrote:

     

    > NVAX falling. I wouldn't pick it up at this level. Going to wait
    > for $2.80+-. Near as I can figure, based upon valuation.
    11 Dec 2009, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5743) | Send Message
     
    TB - The fault really lies with me in bringing this mess in here. I just noticed something funny was going on and asked a question as to whether anyone else had noticed it too. I didn't mean for things to get so far out of hand.

     

    But I did not want to bring it up in one of the Chats because I figured that was where the Troll was doing the most damage.
    11 Dec 2009, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5743) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Engle,

     

    Just to be very clear. I do not give myself thumbs up. I don't expect anyone else, including Maya, is in the habit of doing so either. I suspect his comment was one made out of frustration. Please reconsider your statement because you could be positioning yourself as one against many. I always strive to make meaningful comments wherever I go and rate other comments based upon quality.

     

    On Dec 11 07:59 AM Bill Engle wrote:

     

    > I read your comment, and didn't like it, or the fact that your buddies
    > are voting themselves up multiple times on these chat strings. So
    > you have a new voter. Previously I have never voted a thumbs down
    > on your comments, so take note.
    11 Dec 2009, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10769) | Send Message
     
    Dial: "We have thumbs inflation." Funny stuff!

     

    On Dec 11 11:41 AM Dialectical Materialist wrote:

     

    > You all realize what is happening here, right? We have thumbs inflation.
    > A thumb (up or down) used to count for something. Now it takes 5
    > or ten to get anywhere. Pretty soon a wheelbarrow full of thumbs
    > is going to be required just to buy one stock tip. Either we need
    > a new currency (maybe a foot) or maybe we can establish some sort
    > of credit system whereby we can borrow thumbs against our future
    > thumb earnings. Just a thought. What could go wrong?
    11 Dec 2009, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Darn, my post DID sound judgemental, didn't it? I'm sorry about that, too, I meant to speak only of myself and my own actions, not criticize others!

     

    LOL, just digging myself in deeper.

     

    Mark, I did see your post wondering if YOU were being questioned, and at exactly the same time, I was thinking the same thing. I'm a newbie, relatively, and new to SA as well.

     

    Its one of the ugly sides of troll attacks, they divide and create strife, and add nothing positive. Its also only natural and instinctive to comment upon the situation.

     

    So I owe you an apology too! Please consider it tendered. I can be very self-absorbed and even when trying to make amends, step upon the very folks I am trying to apologize to.

     

    On Dec 11 11:54 AM Mark Bern wrote:

     

    > TB - The fault really lies with me in bringing this mess in here.
    > I just noticed something funny was going on and asked a question
    > as to whether anyone else had noticed it too. I didn't mean for things
    > to get so far out of hand.
    >
    > But I did not want to bring it up in one of the Chats because I figured
    > that was where the Troll was doing the most damage.
    11 Dec 2009, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5743) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Engle,

     

    I, for one, never give myself thumbs up. I Don't believe that others in this group do either. I suspect that the comment you referred to by Maya was one made out of frustration and that he is not really likely to act out on his statement. I rate comments on their quality, not by whether I agree with them or not. I try to make substantive comments wherever I go. I suggest that you reconsider your intentions because you could find yourself in a one against many situation. None of us want such a situation. But since we age being methodically attacked by someone, it would be only natural to go on the defensive. Put yourself in our positions and please reconsider.

     

    On Dec 11 07:59 AM Bill Engle wrote:

     

    > I read your comment, and didn't like it, or the fact that your buddies
    > are voting themselves up multiple times on these chat strings. So
    > you have a new voter. Previously I have never voted a thumbs down
    > on your comments, so take note.
    11 Dec 2009, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5743) | Send Message
     
    TB - I am the one who brought this whole thing up in the first place. I really didn't expect it to get so inflamed. But I didn't want to bring it up in a Chat because I suspected that the Troll, whoever it was, was doing most of their damage there. I just noticed something strange and was wondering whether others had noticed it too.

     

    So, if anyone is to blame for the mess, it would be me. My apologies to all, especially User.

     

    On Dec 11 10:03 AM tripleblack wrote:

     

    > User, I am truly sorry that I helped pull this mess into your neatly
    > organized and valuable Concentrator!
    >
    > Sometimes I act as though I was raised in a barn!
    11 Dec 2009, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5743) | Send Message
     
    Now I owe another apology. I wrote the first two comments, went away, and then decided to come back, hitting the back button. My comments weren't there, so I thought I should try to rewrite them. Now I see I've duplicated myself. Please ignore my previous two comments and do not rate them. I am giving myself a thumbs down on the one that has already received a thumbs up just to even things out. Hopefully, such integrity won't be lost on the Trolls. It is good to note that others in the group have done similar things when they thought they had received undeserved good ratings.
    11 Dec 2009, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Don't even think along those lines triple. This is not your fault. I see whoever did this knocked you out of the top 10, a position earned through your selfless sharing of useful investment information. A social networking crime.

     

    The members of this group have selflessly provided a great deal of investment wisdom based on many years of experience to the Seeking Alpha community. I have never seen anyone turned away from our little investing group. All someone has to do to join is to pitch in and start talking. You don't get down rated here for having a different opinion. All contributions are welcome. If someone goes over the line, people talk it out.

     

    That is what this site, this little investing group is all about. Its about people getting together to socialize, to exchange ideas, and try to make smart investments while competing head to head with investment firms. Firms endowed with resources, firms that will do anything to separate you from your hard earned money. How many of us have been victimized by so called professional investment advisors who's primary goal is not your economic success, but their economic success?

     

    Whoever is doing this does not want to socialize, at least they don't want to socialize with us. In fact, they don't contribute anything to our group of investors. It seems their sole goal is to move up in the ratings list. I say fine, go to the top of the ratings list. Who ever this is will soon realise that being at the top of the ratings list elicits certain quality of content expectations from the SA community.

     

    Top of the list people generate a lot of useful information. The only way to stay up there without providing useful content is to constantly generate multiple accounts, and spend a good deal of time on SA pumping up your own ratings while down voting other peoples comments.

     

    I do suspect management at Seeking Alpha is looking at the situation. The quality of the comments from the sites top contributors should be of considerable interest to them because the site itself is evaluated by the value of what those top contributors are saying and doing. I am sure Seeking Alpha has people on staff that know what is going on. I would not be surprised to see them intervene. After all, its in their self interest to do so.

     

    Mean while, I will just keep soldiering on. I am a worker bee. If the information I am collecting is not of use, than I expect to get feedback from our group with suggestions on what would be of use. The reward for me is to see that the information collected is eliciting comments/ discussions. To me that is the real currency in our social networking group.
    11 Dec 2009, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (716) | Send Message
     
    One thing I'll say about the ratings is that it led me to you guys. When I started watching SA, I perused the top 10 to find people that had good info to share. It's that platform that brings people to find some like-minded individuals that are wanting EVERYONE to learn. It shouldn't be about who's on top just for rankings' sake, it's about learning how to invest and to share information. If you get to the top 10(or 50 or 100), you'd better have something good to share. Just getting there by subterfuge is a sad commentary on the person doing it.

     

    That said, I'm going to start doing my part to keep those that deserve it up where they should be. I may have to start reading back posts from you guys. Like TB says...there's a lot to learn!

     

    And the fact that someone feels that being in the Top 10 without having ANYTHING of value to add to the conversations makes me a sad panda(*cough cough*).
    11 Dec 2009, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10769) | Send Message
     
    User: Here, here, to you, and Mark.

     

    (NVAX) just crossed below its 200 MA. On the big board right now is 20100 bid @ $2.91 versus 6200 ask @ $2.92.
    11 Dec 2009, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    You're right! I just went into my Firefox cookies an did and SQL select count(*) of records with host="seekingalpha.com" or host=".seekingalpha.com". Only 41 records. The schema doesn't indicate any other tables or relationships available.

     

    Your browser may not use the RDBM that Firefox uses, or it may, but I would expect the cookie information to be somewhat similar since that is a function of the server interactions.

     

    HardToLove

     

    On Dec 11 11:32 AM Dialectical Materialist wrote:

     

    > It can't be cookies or clearing your cookies would allow you to vote
    > again, right? (It doesn't , I tested). So it is on the server.
    > And you're right, it would be easy to profile.
    11 Dec 2009, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes on NVAX... I am lurking for a good spot to buy more.

     

    On how SA tracks, I believe it has something to do with your IP address. I don't think they block people with multiple email tagged accounts from the same IP address. How come - because like most Internet companies, the size of their membership affects the advertising rate.

     

    However, I suspect they know if you have multiple accounts unless you are so cute that you know how to mask that.
    11 Dec 2009, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5743) | Send Message
     
    Isn't it great to have folks who think in the technical realm? I know how to check cookies, clear them, and such, but I never would have thought of doing it. HTL and DM (I hope you don't mind the abbreviation, Dialectical) thank you both for your contributions along those lines. They have helped me (probably all of us) in the past and I'm sure you're going to come in useful many more times in the future.

     

    DM - I hope you'll hang around with us. You have a great sense of humor!
    11 Dec 2009, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    On Dec 11 12:55 PM User 283977 wrote:

     

    ><snip>
    > On how SA tracks, I believe it has something to do with your IP address.
    > I don't think they block people with multiple email tagged accounts
    > from the same IP address. How come - because like most Internet
    > companies, the size of their membership affects the advertising rate.

     

    There is also a technical issue. Most end-users have IP addresses dynamically assigned by their provider (ISP). Each ISP sets its policy on how often it is re-assigned and named (for DNS purposes). Some seldom change your IP because it is "derived" from some scheme that carries some intelligence, like the last node before end-user and a port - e.g. line - number. Others may just use the next available IP from the last node prior to end-user. This means some IPs are relatively static while others may change frequently.

     

    It also would not address "road warriors" who frequently connect from wi-fi areas or hotels, etc.

     

    So any tracking based on IP is somewhat risky and is probably not used.

     

    What they can use reliably is IP for the current session. Then if someone has multiple logins, even with NAT (Network Address Translation) turned on, they could catch that the login was from the same place. But you could have multiple /valid/ different users (e.g. from a business) behind a firewall that are legit individual users and so you can't really use that as a certainty.

     

    It is good for raising suspicion, depending on what else you can see, from SA's side.

     

    >
    >
    > However, I suspect they know if you have multiple accounts unless
    > you are so cute that you know how to mask that.

     

    Not hard at all on *IX multi-user systems. Also if you have a couple 'puters sitting around (lots of folks do) and a firewall or gateway that is a "stand-alone" that acts as a router for your LAN (like the wireless ones you buy at Office Depot, or your ISP provides for multiple 'puter home networks) it is also easy.

     

    I don't know Windows well, but I suspect if you have a couple logins on it (not just the default "owner") you could also have additional logins.

     

    Having caught some folks ripping off the big company I worked for long ago, I can tell you it wasn't easy as it sounds.

     

    Technology has changed since that long-ago time so it might be easier or harder - complexity and "automation" of the connections and routing via the internet adds complexity that makes things harder.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Dec 2009, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Backed up December 11, 2009 - 12:21 Pacific

     

    Please switch to the Current Swine Flu Concentrator.
    11 Dec 2009, 03:22 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.