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  • Swine Flu News Concentrator (January 1 - January 25) 108 comments
    Jan 2, 2010 7:30 PM | about stocks: APT, BAX, BCRX, BDX, CBM, CLX, CVM, DGX, ECL, HOLX, GSK, INO, MMM, NVAX, NVS, PURE, ROG, SVA, VICL
    Explanation:

    I will post Swine-Flu and related articles under this heading.  The top of the instablog will contain my current months key links  preceded with a one or two liner that explains the link.  A more complete summary of the link will be in the comments area.  At the bottom of the Instablog we have definition of terms, a summary of Swine Flu / vaccine investment plays, the 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map, Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu, and Memory Alpha which contains links to previous news concentrators and authors articles on the subject.

    I will be backing this up frequently as well.
    Last backup:  

    _____________________

    Update History:
    Added Overview of H1N1 / Categories of Vaccine Investment Plays Added Memory Alpha
    Added Link to Google's Swine Flu Infection Map
    Added Red Cross Tips for Dealing With The Flu
    Added definition of EUA and PREP act
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into two parts for October
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into three parts for October
    Added Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 1
    Bolded References to Older Swine Flu Concentrators in Memory Alpha
    Expanded the list of stocks discussed in the tags
    Alphabetized stocks in the tags
    Updated the play by stock list
    Added a table that contains the web site addresses for the companies discussed
    Moved links over one month old to the new Memory Alpha Reference Library
    Added definitions of Clinical Trials and Protocol.
    Corrected Roche stock symbol in the web site table
    _____________________
    December Links:

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (December 11 - December 31)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (December 4 - December 11)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (November 28 - December 4 Part 5)
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...

    ___________________
    Some Definitions:

    Swine Flu - Novel H1N1 flu, popularly known as swine flu, is a respiratory infection caused by an influenza virus first recognized in spring 2009. The new virus, which is officially called swine influenza A (H1N1), contains genetic material from human, swine and avian flu viruses. (By Mayo Clinic staff)

    Pandemic - The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people.

    A World Health Organization phase 6 pandemic indicates that influenza due to the novel H1N1 swine flu is occurring in multiple countries around the world and that human infection is widespread. The classification does not reflect the severity of individual infections.

    Cytokine Storm -
    When our body detects foreign micro-organisms indicating an infection, our body might respond by over-protecting the site of infection. The body may race so many antibodies to the infection site that they collect in what is known as a cytokine storm.

    A cytokine storm, or "Hypercytokinemia" is a potentially fatal immune reaction consisting of a positive feedback loop between cytokines and immune cells.
    www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-st...

    A positive feedback loop means that as something increases, that increase stimulates further growth.

    What makes younger people more susceptible to H1N1 is that their “vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs.

    This vulnerability in the young is reminiscent of the Spanish flu of 1918. That strain of flu also struck mostly healthy young adults.

    Pulmonary Embolism - Occurs when a blood clot forms in an arm or leg breaks free and enters the lungs where it is too large to pass through the small vessels of the lungs and forms a blockage. This stops blood from flowing into an area of the lung, and the part of the lung dies because it does not receive oxygen.
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/153796.php

    What is an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?
    An EUA may be issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow either the use of an unapproved medical product or an unapproved use of an approved medical product during certain types of emergencies with specified agents.

    What is the PREP Act?
    The PREP Act authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (“Secretary”) to issue a declaration (“PREP Act declaration”) that provides immunity from tort liability (except for willfull misconduct) for claims of loss caused, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats and conditions determined by the Secretary to constitute a present, or credible risk of a future public health emergency to entities and individuals involved in the development, manufacture, testing, distribution, administration, and use of such countermeasures.

    The PREP Act also authorizes an emergency fund in the United States Treasury to provide compensation for injuries directly caused by administration or use of a countermeasure covered by the Secretary’s declaration. While no funds have been appropriated for this purpose, if funds are appropriated, compensation may then be available for medical benefits, lost wages and death benefits to individuals for specified injuries.
    cdc.gov/h1n1flu/eua/qa.htm

    What are Clinical Trials:
    Clinical trials, also known as clinical studies, are research studies in which scientists and doctors test new drugs and treatments to see if they will improve health. Many of today's treatments for cancer are based on the results of past clinical trials. Because of progress made through clinical trials, many people treated for cancer are now living longer.

    Clinical trials are divided into four phases.
    Phase 1 trials: These trials are the first time a new drug or treatment is given to humans. They are normally carried out in a small number of volunteers (typically 6-20 people) who may include healthy volunteers or patients with the disease for which the product is intended as a treatment in order to find out how safe the treatment is. They also look at how a new drug should be given (by mouth, injected into muscle or the bloodstream, etc.), how often and at what dose. Phase 1 trials can also involve patients for whom standard therapies have failed and for whom no other therapies are available.

    Phase 2 trials: These trials involve larger numbers of people (typically 12 - 50). Phase 2 trials continue to look at safety of the therapy but also test how well the new drug or treatment works in patients with different disease types.

    Phase 3 trials: These are large studies (100+ people) that look at how well a new drug or treatment works in comparison to current therapies to see which treatment is better. Those taking part are usually divided into two treatment groups: standard treatment versus new treatment.

    Phase 4 trials: These trials are usually carried out after the drug or treatment has been approved by the FDA and is readily available for use in the general patient population. The purpose of Phase 4 trials is to continue to study the effects of the drug or treatment on different populations and to look for side effects associated with long-term use.
    Back to Top

    What is a Protocol:
    Clinical trials use written guidelines called protocols. The protocol explains what the trial hopes to accomplish, how the trial will be carried out, and why each part of the trial is necessary. For example, the protocol includes:

        * The reason for doing the trial
        * How many people will be in the trial
        * Who is eligible to take part in the trial
        * What study drugs participants will need to take
        * What medical tests participants will have and how often
        * What information will be gathered

    Every doctor or research center that takes part in the trial uses the same protocol. This makes sure that patients are treated identically no matter where they are receiving treatment, and that information from all the centers taking part can be combined and compared.

    Why Slow Production for Traditionally Produced (chicken eggs) Swine Flu Vaccine:
    One dose of swine flu vaccine for every two eggs, compared with two doses of seasonal flu vaccine per egg
    http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/10/22/quest_for_swine_flu_vaccine_giving_some_firms_a_boost/

    _____________________
    Brief Overview of Categories of H1N1/ Vaccine Investment Plays:

    I - Vaccines / Prevention
    1) Production Method / Capacity plays (NASDAQ:NVAX) (NASDAQ:VICL) (NYSE:NVS) (NASDAQ:INO)
    2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play (SVA - China) (NVAX - India)
    3) Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) (NYSE:BAX) (NYSE:BDX)
    4) Outsourced production plays
    5) Bio -Defence (MDCGF - France)
    6) Anti-Mutation / Pan-Influenza Play (NYSEMKT:CVM) (NYSEMKT:NNVC) (INO)
    7) Universal Flu Vaccine Play (INO)

    II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
    1) Dealing with severe lung infections (Fludase® (DAS181)) (NYSE:CBM) (OTCQB:AEMD)
    2) ICU treatments (NASDAQ:BCRX) (NYSE:GSK) (NYSE:ROG)
    III - Population Avoidance:
    1) masks/ disinfectants… Surgical masks are good enough (NYSEMKT:APT) (NYSE:MMM) (NYSE:CLX) (NYSE:ECL) (OTCQB:PURE)

    IV - Testing do you have it? (NASDAQ:GPRO)
    1) Test kits - (NYSE:DGX)

    V - Merger / Acquisitions / Licensing (VICL) (NVAX)
    _____________________
    Sorry this is still a graphic instead of a table. I played with the table tool, but its a
    PITA to work with.

    Swine Flu Companies Discussed and Their Web Sites


    _____________________
    Swine Flu Hits Stuffed Animal World:



    2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map:
    The Link is from DoubleGuns
    flutracker.rhizalabs.com/

    I am not too happy with any of the outbreak maps. They all make the same mistake, they try to show the worlds data on one chart. This makes them SLOW.
    I will keep looking for one that works faster.
    _____________________

    Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu:

    IF YOU ARE ILL -
    * Stay in a room separate from common areas of the home and avoid contact with others as much as possible.

    * Stay at home for at least 24 hours after their fever is gone without using medicine to reduce the fever.

    * Get lots of rest and drink plenty of fluids.

    * Consider wearing a facemask, if available and tolerable, when sharing common spaces with household members. (ed - surgical masks ok).

    * Check with your healthcare provider about whether to take antiviral medication, or if fever persists, whether antibiotics are needed.

    WHEN CARING FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS THE FLU -
    *Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces that everyone touches.

    * Use detergent and very hot water to do dishes and wash clothes. It's okay to wash everyone's dishes and clothes together. Wash your hands after handling dirty laundry.

    * Designate only one adult as the caregiver. People at increased risk of severe illness from the flu should not be caregivers.

    * Although not mentioned by the Red Cross, the caregiver should probably ware a surgical mask as well when entering the sick room.

    * Deal with crisis situations calmly and confidently to give the best support to the person being cared for.
    _____________________

    MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season

    Click here to link to the Mayo tool:
    www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...

    _____________________
    Suggeted Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php

    After comparing more than two dozen possible scenarios for closing a school, the analysis suggested three optimal scenarios:

    1. A single-day influenza-related absentee rate of 5 percent

    2. Absenteeism of 4 percent or more on two consecutive days

    3. Absenteeism of 3 percent or more on three consecutive days


    Older references are stored in the MEMORY ALPHA REFERENCE LIBRARY
    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-283977/37565-memory-alpha-reference-library





    Disclosure: NVAX, NNVC, SVA, VICL (sometimes trading, sometimes holding)
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Comments (108)
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Recap of my positions with pharma:

     

    I currently own (CVM) purchased at $.89, and (VICL) purchased at $3.31. I am tracking (NVAX) trading in the $2.50-2.60 range.

     

    After reading every scrap of flu news I can find for months, I am seeing a LOT of very confidant pronouncements that "the flu season is over", or that "the danger from the Swine Flu is over". TOO confidant by far. The over-reaction when this proves false could be wild.
    3 Jan 2010, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    VICL: (VICL) Announces that it's Vaxfectin adjuvant increased antibody and T-cell responses primarily by stimulating the immune system rather than simply increasing vaccine uptake. The results, published in the journal Vaccine(1), validate encouraging results with the Vaxfectin(R) adjuvant in prior animal and human studies, and position Vaxfectin(R) as a potential "universal" adjuvant for a broad range of vaccines.

     

    Full details at

     

    ir.vical.com/releasede...

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jan 2010, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mihalis
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    Global Hunter Securities initiates coverage of Novavax (Nasdaq: seekingalpha.com/symbo...) with a Buy rating. Price target $7.25.

     

    www.deraktionaer.de/xi...
    7 Jan 2010, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Awright! Thanks for that good news!

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jan 2010, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    This was not up on the Yahoo news this afternoon, if it had been, it might have had an effect.
    7 Jan 2010, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    WHO update on 1/8/10 for period ended 1/3/10 (h1n1 not over by a long shot)
    www.who.int/csr/don/20...

     

    Also, avian flu is breaking out again.
    8 Jan 2010, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Stopped out of (GDLNF.PK), had the stops set way too tight, will have to look for another point to buy back in.
    8 Jan 2010, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mihalis
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    Keep your NVAX !
    I feel this stock will explode one day...things can happen in a hurry!
    8 Jan 2010, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    VICL: At /today's/ price ($3.45) a potential 14.3% dilution. But used only as needed over two years, at potentially much higher prices (diminishing dilutive effect), to fund CAPEX or major program implementation when contracts are obtained, doesn't sound to bad at all. I take this as a positive - no surprise issuance at huge discounts to market price and positioned to secure needed funding upon demand.

     

    (VICL) ir.vical.com/releasede...

     

    "announced that it has secured an issuer managed equity facility under which it may sell up to $25 million of its registered common stock to Azimuth Opportunity, Ltd. Vical is not obligated to use any of the facility.

     

    From time to time during the 24-month term of the agreement, at Vical's sole discretion and subject to certain conditions, Vical may present Azimuth with draw down notices requiring Azimuth to purchase a specified dollar amount of shares of its common stock on pre-defined terms. Any shares sold under this facility will be registered under Vical's effective shelf registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission".

     

    This is apparently one leg of the shelf registration 1/27/09 detailed here.

     

    ir.vical.com/releasede...

     

    Some useful snippets from the SEC filing here - what seems to me the shareholder-friendly part -

     

    www.sec.gov/Archives/e...

     

    "in no event may we sell under the Purchase Agreement more than that number of shares of common stock which is equal to one share less than 20% of our outstanding shares of common stock on the effective date of the Purchase Agreement, and provided, further, that in no event shall we be obligated to sell or Azimuth be obligated to purchase under the Purchase Agreement any shares of our common stock which, when aggregated with all other shares of our common stock then owned beneficially by Azimuth, would result in the beneficial ownership by Azimuth of more than 9.9% of the then issued and outstanding shares of our common stock. From time to time over the term of the Purchase Agreement, and at our sole discretion, we may present Azimuth with draw down notices requiring Azimuth to purchase a specified dollar amount of shares of our common stock, based on the price per share over ten consecutive trading days or such other period mutually agreed upon by us and Azimuth, or the draw down period, with each draw down subject to limitations based on the price of our common stock and a maximum limit of 2.5% of our market capitalization at the time of such draw down. We are able to present Azimuth with up to 24 draw down notices during the term of the Purchase Agreement, with only one such draw down notice allowed per draw down period and a minimum of five trading days required between each draw down period".

     

    "Once presented with a draw down notice, Azimuth is required to purchase a pro rata portion of the shares on each trading day during the trading period on which the daily volume weighted average price for our common stock exceeds a threshold price determined by us for such draw down. The per share purchase price for these shares will equal the daily volume weighted average price of our common stock on each date during the draw down period on which shares are purchased, less a discount ranging from 4.00% to 6.25%, based on a minimum price we specify. If the daily volume weighted average price of our common stock falls below the threshold price on any trading day during a draw down period, the Purchase Agreement provides that Azimuth will not be required to purchase the pro-rata portion of shares of common stock allocated to that day. However, at its election, Azimuth may buy the pro-rata portion of shares allocated to that day at the threshold price less the discount described above".

     

    There is another few paragraphs, one of which is not quite as friendly, but doesn't seem too onerous to me.

     

    I encourage you to read the SEC filing and draw your own conclusions.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Jan 2010, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9983) | Send Message
     
    Biosante Pharm (BPAX) is taking off, too, though on low volume.
    8 Jan 2010, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » #%$#@ !!!!!
    8 Jan 2010, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Is that regarding the VICL news? Or ... ?

     

    HardToLove
    8 Jan 2010, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Definitely the VICL news.
    8 Jan 2010, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    The reason I take it as positive is the original shelf registration was an open-ended 70M quantity. This new release places limits on how it can affect investors. That's why I think this is positive.

     

    No worries at sudden releases to large brokerage houses at 10%-20% discounts, limits on days they can buy and at what price, limited # per period, etc.

     

    I would /think/ a <*sigh*> Thank goodness is in order. But I'm so new that maybe I don't really understand?

     

    HardToLove
    8 Jan 2010, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Those shelves overhang most of the companies in this space. Its part of the landscape. I read an article about the idea behind creating the reporting regulations, that it would make things all open, tansparent and fair for everyone...

     

    But before, there was a very negative bias against doing this sort of thing, and few companies did it.

     

    Now everyone seems to be doing it.

     

    LOL, ain't we glad that the SEC is altering the moral base upon which we all invest?

     

    Imagine if companies instead sought the perlmission of the stockholders...

     

    Nah, WAY too radical.
    9 Jan 2010, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2344) | Send Message
     
    DMYDY, if you don't get in before the split consider after.

     

    LNCGY, starting to look better chartwise, lots of coal here for an interested chinese suitor, technology won't hurt either.
    9 Jan 2010, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (9 January) Swine flu blog: Riddle of sudden rise in deaths in England

     

    Everyone is so excited about the decline in swine flu that the astonishing jump in deaths in England last week almost went unnoticed. The weekly UK death toll jumped from 300 to 355 (most of those in England). The Times had this to say: "Sir Liam Donaldson said that this did not mean the virus was getting worse. 'I don’t think you can read into the apparently larger increase any particular trend or worsening of the situation,' he said. 'It is just that we are still continuing to see deaths broadly at the rate we have been seeing them.' He added that there had been a “striking increase” in the number of over-65s being admitted to critical care in hospital." Pensioners have traditionally been all but immune to swine flu so this is a worrying announcement. One to keep an eye on.
    tinyurl.com/ybfwpe4
    9 Jan 2010, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (8 January) WHO Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 - update 82 (Edited)

     

    The most active areas of pandemic influenza transmission currently are in parts of central, eastern and south-eastern Europe, North Africa, and South Asia.

     

    In South Asia, pandemic influenza transmission remains geographically widespread and active across the subcontinent - particularly in northern India, Nepal, and in Sri Lanka…
    www.who.int/csr/don/20...
    9 Jan 2010, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (January 8) China offers free swine flu jabs to children under 3
    China has said it will offer free swine flu jabs to children aged six months to three years, as the government ramps up its vaccination programme ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays.

     

    Children are among the most susceptible to the A(H1N1) influenza virus, the health ministry said in a statement posted on its website Thursday.

     

    A vaccination designed for children had been tested in several regions, Xinhua news agency said, citing an earlier statement from the ministry.

     

    China has so far vaccinated nearly 51.4 million people, the health ministry said -- the largest campaign in the world, but still only a small proportion of the country's 1.3 billion people.

     

    The government reported a total of 659 swine flu deaths by the end of 2009, with nearly all of them in the last two months of the year. The ministry has warned that the danger of mass outbreaks still exists in certain areas.

     

    Ministry officials have warned of a "grim" winter flu outlook, and are urging caution ahead of the February Lunar New Year holidays, when hundreds of millions of people swamp roads and railways to visit loved ones.
    www.sinodaily.com/afp/...
    9 Jan 2010, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (ed: If you are over 65 and think you are not at danger with respect to the Swine Flu, you need to read this article)

     

    (January 8) Why Seniors Really Should Fear Swine Flu By Sharon Begley | Newsweek Web Exclusive

     

    The CDC's vaccination advice for the over-65 set has been misleading.

     

    In the federal government's explanations of swine flu, through its Web site and public-service announcements, one message has come through loud and clear: seniors can rest easy. Children face a much greater risk from this disease, and they are dying from it in numbers never seen with regular, seasonal flu. Maybe seniors even have some special immunity to H1N1.

     

    There's only one problem: according to a new analysis, the CDC's own numbers show clearly and unequivocally that H1N1 is more than twice as deadly to seniors as to children. As a result, "many older adults undoubtedly underestimate their own risk and the importance of getting vaccinated," says Peter Sandman, a long time scholar of risk communication. "Older adults have been told they don't have to worry, and that's not true. If the virus comes back, people will die."

     

    Children 0 to 17 are likeliest to catch swine flu. But adults (18 to 64) and seniors (65 and older) are much more likely to die of the disease. Kids are least likely to die if they catch swine flu. Which leads to the question, why have seniors had to wait at the end of the line, so to speak, to receive vaccinations?

     

    The answer to that question seems to be twofold. The first is that children 0 to 17 are at higher risk from H1N1 than they are from seasonal flu. The second is that children are little Typhoid Mary's: whatever they catch, they spread to more people than seniors do. CDC's decision to prioritize children—especially during the fall, when vaccine was in short supply—made sense from this perspective.

     

    But that decision, and the widespread belief that seniors have little to fear from H1N1, could now prove deadly. As Sandman puts it, "I thought there was some sense of putting kids first, especially when vaccine was scarce, to control the spread. It wasn't crazy, even though it was false [to say that seniors face less risk from H1N1 than children do]. But we are paying a high price for that miscommunication: I know a lot of seniors who say they've pushed their grandchildren to get vaccinated, but won't do it themselves. They've been told they don't have to worry, and that is not true." The CDC's policy of putting children first for vaccines and downplaying the risk to older adults "went from being unwise, though understandable, to being a deadly piece of miscommunication," he says. "CDC and HHS continue to dig a deeper and deeper hole by exclusively saying that children are most at risk."

     

    (ed: here is the link to the whole article over on Newsweek)
    www.newsweek.com/id/22...
    9 Jan 2010, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    If I was a conspiracy theorist type, I'd say it was designed to work in conjunction with the attempts to pass the health insurance bill. Two ways to work it: 1) cost control by killing off the seniors, 2) garner support by getting more expensive care needed, justifying the abhorrent costs of the bill, as more seniors catch it.

     

    Of course, I don't believe either of those scenarios.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Jan 2010, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    I think the Newsweek article is missing something: the reason less seniors become infected with h1n1 is because more seniors were exposed to swine flu in the past. There is some kind of correlation between being born before 1957( sorry for labeling the boomers in with the seniors) and already having some antibodies/immunity. This Newsweek article is a good warning, but definitely not a comprehensive picture of the real risk to seniors/boomers, imo.
    9 Jan 2010, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2344) | Send Message
     
    OG/HTL, remember the adage about skipping a Generation?

     

    Spanish Flu' Grandchildren would fit the Profile. 1918 plus 40 years.
    9 Jan 2010, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That article brings up some interesting issues, so I played around a bit with the data to highlight some key points.

     

    Among Children, 21.3% of them have gotten H1N1, and .007% (.00007) have died.

     

    Among Adults (18 - 64) , 13.9% of them have gotten H1N1, and .028% have died.

     

    Among Seniors, 10.3% of them have gotten H1N1, and .032% have died.

     

    Therefore:
    1) Children are twice as likely to catch H1N1 than seniors.
    2) The 10.3% of Seniors that catch H1N1, are 4.6 times more likely to die from it.

     

    The CDC has concentrated on communicating story One, but has not said much about story Two. That is the crux of the article. The author is saying that the CDC has miscommunicated, and in the process they emphasized only one part of the full story. Because of this, many seniors are of the opinion that they are safe because of presumed past exposures to influenzas similar to the swine flu, and many seniors are not bothering to take the H1N1 vaccine. By the way, I have not seen any hard evidence that seniors catch less H1N1 SOLELY because they have a level of immunity to it.

     

    At this point I decided to take a different view of the data by changing the analytical base. The results in (1) and (2) are expressed in terms of within age group bases. Lets see what happens to the results if I change the base to total population. Looking at the total population, 15.9M children, 26.9M adults, and 8.7M seniors got H1N1. More adults because there are more adults in the population. Notice that when using a total population approach, 1.69 times (26.9/15.9) more Adults have caught H1N1 than children. That's an interesting result because the average number of parents present in the average household is 1.66.

     

    I got the 1.66 number by noting that 66 out of 100 HHs have two parents present, and 34 out of 100 have one parent present. So the average number of parents present in a US HH is [(66 X 2) + (34 X 1)]/100 = 1.66.

     

    family.jrank.org/pages...

     

    So the number of adult infections is within three hundredths of that predicted by a children to parent mechanism of transfer. I would have thought the number of Adults getting swine flue would be much larger than that because of Adult to Adult transfer within the general Adult population. This similarity is suggestive that the primary vector for adult infections is their children, and non-intimate Adult to Adult transmission appears to be limited (I know what you are thinking Hord, stop it).

     

    Among the total population, 5.6% of TOTAL H1N1 related deaths occurred among Children, 80.5% among adults, and 13.9% among Seniors.

     

    Containment Strategies:
    One strategy to reduce the total number of deaths is to try to reduce the number of people that get H1N1. Since the largest population of H1N1 cases is among adults, this approach would give vaccine priority to Adults, followed by Seniors and than by Children. The problem with this concerns the lack of sufficient quantities of H1N1 vaccine. It took time to bring H1N1 vaccine production up to speed, so there was not enough vaccine to treat the majority of the US population at risk from H1N1 death, adults. The new rapid production methods that are going to come on-line in the near future will help address this slow production problem. However, I have to note that most of the US government funds for vaccine research and production are supporting foreign vaccine manufacturers using the old Chicken egg production technique. Why?

     

    Since there was a limited quantity of H1N1 vaccine available, it appears the CDC set its priorities by what could be termed a disease vector approach. With this strategy, the health authorities recognized the likelihood that children are a primary disease vector with respect to transferring influenza infections to adults. This is alluded to in the article by the reference to Typhoid Mary, an individual that carried Typhoid without symptoms, and spread the disease to many people.

     

    The disease vector approach was mentioned in a previous Swine Flu News Concentrator. The idea here is that children infect their parents, and the now infected parents form a bridge for the disease to infect the general population of adults. It does appear that the CDC did in fact use this approach in the early days of the Pandemic. It makes sense, and it could maximize the effectiveness of limited amounts of vaccine available in the early stages of the H1N1 Pandemic.

     

    Question:
    It seems to me that the underlying mechanism of a disease vector model is social contact transmission. Presumably, the closer the social contact, the higher the probability of transmission. This raises a fundamental question. Is the reason that seniors get less H1N1 infections due to having some degree of residual immunity based on past influenza infections, OR do seniors, on average, get less H1N1 infections because they are more socially isolated with respect to daily contact with children and adults? If degree of social isolation is important than we should see a higher rate of H1N1 infections and deaths among seniors in close contact with grand children and their own children. This social isolation hypothesis is testable, and I hope the academics pick up on it.

     

    My primary takeaway from this exercise is that Seniors, would be well advised to get an H1N1 vaccination. The basis of this advice is that if a Senior gets H1N1, they are the most likely people to die from it. They are 4.6 times more likely than a child to die from it. The same advice goes for adults, particularly adults with children in the Household. They are 4 times more likely to die from H1N1 than their children. Why take the chance?

     

    My second takeaway is that about 40% of children have received H1N1 vaccinations by December 22, 2009. That leaves 60% not vaccinated. The data from the CDC reports 21.3% of children have gotten H1N1, so that leaves about 40% (38.7) of the population of children at risk.

     

    www.infectioncontrolto...

     

    Is this enough to support a third wave of H1N1 infections during the Winter of 2010?
    10 Jan 2010, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9983) | Send Message
     
    User: Outstanding work!

     

    I think you're on to something, too. The possibility of another H1N1 surge later this winter is highy probably. Perhaps this is why the CDC has grocery stores and pharmacies prioritized over physicians in who recieved the dossages? Further, these same dossages of H1N1 cost about half what a regular flu shot costs; $15.00 for H1N1 and $29.00 for the regular flu shot.
    10 Jan 2010, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2344) | Send Message
     
    Canada is donating Mexico 5 million doses.

     

    It hit Mexico last year earlier than they let on, maybe its back.
    10 Jan 2010, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    VICL: (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) news here

     

    ir.vical.com/releasede...

     

    Snippet: " the U.S. Department of Agriculture (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) has granted the company's licensee Merial Limited, the animal health subsidiary of sanofi-aventis, full licensure for its ONCEPT(seekingalpha.com/symbo...) canine melanoma vaccine, a therapeutic DNA vaccine designed to aid in extending survival of dogs with oral melanoma. Merial plans to launch the product at the North American Veterinary Conference (Orlando, January 16 - 20)".

     

    "The approval of ONCEPT(seekingalpha.com/symbo...) is a milestone in the cancer vaccine field and a significant advancement for our DNA delivery technology platform," said Vijay B. Samant, Vical's President and Chief Executive Officer. "Therapeutic vaccines -- the holy grail of vaccinology -- are delivered after disease onset to impede disease progress for the patient's benefit. ONCEPT(seekingalpha.com/symbo...) is to our knowledge the only therapeutic vaccine approved, and we believe this achievement is a major step toward the initial approvals of therapeutic vaccines for humans. We also believe that regulatory acceptance of ONCEPT(seekingalpha.com/symbo...) bodes well for similar product candidates such as our Allovectin-7(seekingalpha.com/symbol/r) DNA-based immunotherapeutic for patients with metastatic melanoma. ONCEPT(seekingalpha.com/symbo...) uses a xenogeneic approach and Allovectin-7(seekingalpha.com/symbol/r) uses an allogeneic approach, both employing the immune system's self/non-self recognition ability to drive a potent immune response against melanoma. Through our independent and partnered programs, we are advancing well toward additional approvals of DNA-based products."

     

    HardToLove
    11 Jan 2010, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Has anyone else come down with or know anyone with the winter head cold that is spreading here in Ohio.

     

    Lots of head congestion with very productive coughing fits that would make you think next episode will result in lung tissue appearing in the tissue mixed in with the broccoli and califlower matter.

     

    Rough.
    11 Jan 2010, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2344) | Send Message
     
    Recovery time around 4 weeks even with having taken a Pneumonia Vaccine prior to same, antibiotics,, prescription cough medicine, you name it.

     

    Coughing jags so severe, you sometimes can't catch your breath.

     

    Blood tissue occasionally surfacing with phlegm from same.

     

    These are some of the symptoms.

     

    Been there. Believe me, I've never ever had anything so severe.
    11 Jan 2010, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mihalis
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    NVAX !!!

     

    seekingalpha.com/user/...
    11 Jan 2010, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Don't get tooo excited yet - options expiration week!

     

    A possibility is that the market saw User's "HT NVAX HYPOTHESIS - SUBSTANTIALLY REVISED" here

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    and the shorts took heed!

     

    Regardless, I expect more upsdie if/when announcements are forthcoming - hopefully later this month.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Jan 2010, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    BTW, don't do this sort of post too often or the SA community may see you as a spammer.

     

    Try to put some useful verbiage in with your posts.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Jan 2010, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Greetings all: While I was researching Nanotech companies I came across this amusing little company: Nanomask. (NANM.PK) @$0.14. According to the literature they manufacture micro filter masks capable of filtering Avian an Swine flew droplets in aerosol containing contagious material. I didn't do any work on them as they really don't fit the bill for Nanotech. The masks are sold at (Fluarmor.com) and some other web sites for around $7 for a set.
    11 Jan 2010, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mihalis
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    Nanomask? That ist sommething for Mike Jackson or japanese people... *laugh out loud*
    11 Jan 2010, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9983) | Send Message
     
    Robert: Alpha Pro Tech (APT) is also in the face mask making biz. The stock has dropped off significantly since the beginning of the fall Swine Flu season; was $7.19 on 10/26, now $4.23. In fact, the technicals are shaping up nicely for a rebound as APT has fallen below 21 and 50 day moving averages. Still above the 200 day moving average, which is $3.65.

     

    I made some $ off this stock back in September through October. Stochastic has fallen into slightly oversold, and money flow is still moving out. Volume has all but dried up.

     

    However, if H1N1 comes back strong, this stock may be one to re-examine.
    11 Jan 2010, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    (CVM) shot up 15.2% on this news washington.bizjournals...

     

    (VICL) is up slightly on news that he FDA has cleared their melanoma treatment for dogs.
    11 Jan 2010, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2344) | Send Message
     
    Not your usual Swine flu link but interesting in its own right:

     

    us.rd.yahoo.com/financ...;_ylc=X3oDMTI1ZTM0NmY3...biz.yahoo.com/iw/09121...

     

    FONR comes to mind as a pure play.
    12 Jan 2010, 01:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Up pre-market (08:16 Eastern) +5.63% $3.19. News

     

    www.novavax.com/downlo...

     

    Snippet: "successfully completed a pre-clinical safety and efficacy study of its RSV vaccine candidate in cotton rats. Results from this study are needed to support an Investigational New Drug (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) application to advance this novel recombinant F protein particle based RSV (RSV-F) vaccine candidate into clinical development. This vaccine candidate is
    composed of recombinant ‘F’ or ‘fusion’ protein of RSV which is used by the virus to infect and fuse with cells in the respiratory tract and cause disease".

     

    and

     

    "We are excited to report steady progress towards the development of a vaccine against RSV, an important virus that is the leading cause of viral death in infants,” said Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and CEO of Novavax. “A safe and effective vaccine against RSV is especially needed in very young children since RSV infection does not provoke lasting immunity. An effective vaccine would also be important in adults, especially the elderly, where RSV illness is common"

     

    and

     

    "There is currently no approved vaccine for the prevention of RSV and the market potential for such a vaccine could exceed $1 billion annually.”

     

    In addition to completing this important preclinical study in cotton rats, Novavax today announced the successful scale up of the manufacturing process for the RSV-F vaccine candidate. Material produced with this process under current Good Manufacturing Practices (cGMP) is currently being used in a formal toxicology study in rabbits".

     

    There's more of interest there - worth rading.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2010, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    VICL: (VICL) News

     

    ir.vical.com/releasede...

     

    Snippet: "the company's licensee, AnGes MG, Inc., reported approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) of the Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) agreement for a Phase 3 clinical trial of its Collategene(TM) angiogenesis product for patients with advanced peripheral arterial disease (PAD). The study will be multinational, randomized and placebo-controlled with a target population of 560 patients.

     

    The Phase 3 trial will enroll no option as well as poor option patients with chronic and severe ischemia of the lower limb (Critical Limb Ischemia). No option patients are those unable to receive an endovascular intervention or surgical bypass procedure due to inflow, conduit or outflow reasons or due to a severe and irreversible co-morbidity where surgery is contraindicated. Poor option patients are those unable to receive an endovascular intervention and at high risk for bypass surgery due to their vascular anatomy or severe co-morbid disease. Inclusion of poor option patients will open the clinical trial to at least three to four times as many target patients compared to other trials within the industry which only include no option patients".

     

    and

     

    "The U.S. healthcare burden associated with amputations is estimated to be greater than $10 billion per year. The potential market for PAD therapies is estimated to be in excess of $2 billion per year".

     

    More information in the article.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2010, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Skymark Research Initiates Independent Research Coverage on Novavax, Inc.

     

    No other info - just promotional blurb for their subscription service.

     

    But, usually when independent analysts start taking notice it's a positive development.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2010, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This Instablog is a good read on the subject of H1N1 mutating.
    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    The particular mutation concerns Receptor Binding Changes (RBC) at position 225 (D225G, D225N). The mutation is dangerous because its associated with lung destruction and hemorrhagic lung bleeding. This particular mutation was apparently present in the 1918 - 1919 version of the H1N1 pandemic flu.

     

    Here is another article published today: (January 11) Transmission of Fatal H1N1 D225G/N Accelerates Concerns

     

    www.recombinomics.com/...

     

    The crux of the article concerns differences of opinion with respect to the implications of the D225G, D225N mutation. The WHO's current working hypothesis is that the mutations they are seeing are independent and due to copy errors within each patient, and most importantly, that the RBC changes DO NOT TRANSMIT.

     

    The article is saying that the WHO's position is NOT supported by data from their own laboratories. That data is showing clustering of position 225 changes. Clustering suggests direct transmission. The article says the presence of clustering is not easily explained by independent and random events. The article states that the WHO's explanation for mutations of this type are based on an antiquated random mutation model as an explanation of genetic drift and viral evolution.

     

    In addition, the article points out that one of WHO's labs (Mill Hill) ran an antigenicity test on one of the Ukraine samples and found it to be a "low reactor". That means the current H1N1 vaccine will not be effective against this 225 RBC mutation.

     

    This is something that we need to keep an eye on. It also once again emphasizes the critical importance for a country to have its OWN rapid vaccine production method facilities.
    12 Jan 2010, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Illene's insta contained much the same information indicating that the WHO was off the mark again. However it stated that six out of six fatalities in Ukraine had the mutated 225 RBC indicating 100% mortality. As I posted there that is like bringing six gunshot victims to emergency where they all die and drawing the conclusion that all gunshot victims die. You are quite correct User we really haven't got enough data to reach any conclusion just yet and close scrutiny is required. The DNA replication vaccine teqniques look promissing as they can target specific viral proteins to induce powerful immune responses.
    12 Jan 2010, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    And importantly for some of us, the /fast/ replication companies, like VICL and NVAX should have an edge. Further, VICL has their effort on the product that is "cross strain". I wonder if that allows effectiveness against a target when just a couple sites are mutated?

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2010, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    There is a article in this month's Discover Magazine discussing a technique which piggy backs a viral or bacterial protein to small to provoke an immune response on to a larger molecule to get a response. The article was dealing with E. Coli which produces severe diarrhea killing many children in the developing world and describing this technique to provide immunity. I wonder if the same technique could be used with very small viral proteins like the 225 RBC.
    12 Jan 2010, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Right Robert.... I was also wondering about the NOT random claim as well. Mutation behaviour could still be random within a limited set. In that case, there would be a higher probability of clusters in the absence of transmission. I also wonder if giving a substance like TamiFlu which reduces viral load could also serve as a stimulus for a virus to mutate. Similar to the notion that if you stop taking an anti-biotic before completing the recommended dosage that you run the risk of creating a bacteria that is resistant to that anti-biotic in the future.

     

    What I fear is the possibility that Avian and H1N1 can merge into an Avian/ Swine virus... a flying pig... The Chinese New Year is approaching, and that means there will be quite a bit of social mingling in China, where both Avian and Swine viruses are known to be circulating
    .
    12 Jan 2010, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    User: Greetings. Currently the Avian flu circulating in Asia is derived from the Vietnamese strain. The big fear is that the Indonesian strain will exchange genetic material with swine flu creating a deadly flying pig flu pandemic. Since Indonesia will not release samples citing intellectual and property rights (They say they own the strain) this could be very bad for the rest of us.
    12 Jan 2010, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (January 13) 8:00AM Sinovac Biotech (SVA) obtains fifth H1N1 vaccine order from Chinese central government for its H1N1 vaccine, PANFLU.1, from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for the national purchase plan. Under this purchase order, Sinovac is required to deliver an additional 8.57 million doses of PANFLU.1 to the Chinese Central Government, of which 2.33 million doses are expected to be delivered before March 15, 2010, and the balance of 6.23 million doses to be stockpiled by the government in Sinovac's warehouse facility.
    finance.yahoo.com/mark...

     

    (ed: SVA is up 6% on the news so far…. )
    13 Jan 2010, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Bought 1000 shares of (NVAX).

     

    Sold more (CVM) yesterday, now playing with house money.

     

    Holding (VICL).
    13 Jan 2010, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » hmmmm... my VICL kicked out today on a tight stop. I set the stop because of that capital infusion deal they made the other day. I anticipated it would invite shorting up to a 6% decrease in the stock price. Its a great stock, so I will buy it back, but right now I am waiting until the dust settles.

     

    SVA is slowly moving down again... I am still holding my SVA in anticipation of favourable 4th quarter results. Anyone have any idea of when those results will be announced?
    13 Jan 2010, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9983) | Send Message
     
    Triple: I put in a bid for some NVAX this morning, but missed it. I'm kind of wishy washy about not getting it, as the stochastics are moving up into oversold territory. However, based soley on moving averages, NVAX is at or beneath the 21, 50 and 200 day MAs. Money flow is still out, and has been since late August (8/27/09). Frankly, I don't remember any chart where the money flow out has gone that long without changing. Though it looks like it's just about to switch, which should have the shorts nervous.

     

    The money flow potentially switching to "in" sets up nicely for a short squeeze. That's why I put in an order.
    13 Jan 2010, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Maya... yup... that is what I am thinking as well. Nvax will be announcing the results of the Mexico trials some time soon. If those are positive, the stock should have a substantial pop because that will trigger both the Mexico and India plays... The shorts that are just sitting there are very likely going to have to close those positions while the stock is moving up.... the old squeeze-a-rooney. What I worry about is the amount of shorting at the top of the pop.

     

    So is the best short term play - sell at peek pop, wait for the shorting to take its toll, and than buy back in. That way you minimize the dead capital waiting for regular earning to start flowing.
    13 Jan 2010, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    I just got through doing that with (CVM). 2nd time, actually. Stopped out a while ago, now looking to buy back in around $.88 or below.
    13 Jan 2010, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    I agree about the short squeeze, it entered into my thinking too. LOL, how could it not after all the fine effort by HTL and User?

     

    We'll see. I got tired of watching from the sidelines.
    13 Jan 2010, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes... all that effort is reflected in my current Avatar covered in a squished tomato. There are a lot of big sharks swimming in the tank. I am just hoping I can find some crumbs while avoiding getting eaten.
    13 Jan 2010, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2344) | Send Message
     
    Medicago, Bird Flu Vaccine. Buy it now while it is still extraordinarily cheap.

     

    It should be a core holding in the Rapid response sector as well.
    13 Jan 2010, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9983) | Send Message
     
    User: I was going to say that your new pic looked like an old decoupage painted by Matisse. But now, it looks more indeed like you visited the Spanish Tomato Fest!

     

    TB and All: Checkout not necessarily my comment, but the whole thread titled "A Tale Of Three Empires."

     

    Great stuff!

     

    You can find your way there through Stock Talk and my comment.
    13 Jan 2010, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (January 14) Glaxo becomes swine flu victim - Reuters

     

    As the biggest gainer from the H1N1 swine flu pandemic, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) now has most to lose as countries cut back their orders.

     

    While supplies already shipped in 2009 look safe, the British drugmaker will make less money than expected from its Pandemrix shot in 2010. It also faces weaker demand for flu treatment Relenza as swine flu concerns wane.

     

    At the same time, sales of herpes drug Valtrex are plunging after its US patent expired last month, spelling a tough year ahead for Glaxo, which is trying to reduce its traditional reliance on sales of prescription products in Western markets.

     

    Consensus forecasts point to a meagre 1 percent uptick in earnings per share this year, following impressive growth of 14 percent forecast for 2009, according to Thomson Reuters.
    www.stuff.co.nz/busine...
    14 Jan 2010, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am thinking of closing the Swine Flu concentrator as news has sharply dropped off with the infection rate. I can re-open it again if a third wave materializes.

     

    Do we have a need for another news concentrator in some manageable subject area?
    14 Jan 2010, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    I believe we should keep it around, just merge it with Pharma in general. Perhaps also include Healthcare/insurance?
    14 Jan 2010, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX) fired their VP Jan. 11. Price is down just over 3%.

     

    (CVM) and (VICL) are down about 2%.

     

    (DUSA) is trading around the middle of its range - its one I am tracking as a possible buy.
    14 Jan 2010, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    I will probably start looking at this type of action again in the summer prior to the next flu season.
    14 Jan 2010, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9983) | Send Message
     
    User: You deserve a vacation to the Land of 20 Cheeses. Perhaps you can "de-concentrate" the thread. In other words, make it like OyGee's Quick Chat. The reason is that there seems to be a lot of interest in NVAX, VICL and SVA, and a few other vaccine-type stocks.
    14 Jan 2010, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2344) | Send Message
     
    Instead of a General "Swine flu" Insta, how about stock specific News concentrator.

     

    We provide a list of Investible Ideas, the Concentrator can keep a track of same Including Graphs. HTL does it with his UNG Insta.

     

    Or just the top holdings? It would be interesting to compare multiple graphs all in the same place.

     

    Just a thought.
    14 Jan 2010, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9983) | Send Message
     
    Ut Oh! Potential controversy? Fraud?

     

    www.dailymail.co.uk/ne...
    14 Jan 2010, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    This is not surprising. It is exactly the same situation with banking or any sector with specialized knowledge. Who are you going to rely on? Know-nothing politicians with their own particular axes to grind or people who actually have expertise but their own axes? I go with some knowledge and doing the best we can to reduce conflicts of interest effects and fraud.

     

    It's a losing battle though. Whichever way you choose, criticism and suspicion will arise.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Jan 2010, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    I heard a news report that kids under 10 are not getting their follow-up innoculation ( h1n1 requires 2 shots for the kids) which increases the possibility of another outbreak this winter.
    15 Jan 2010, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Any changes in view on (NVAX), considering the news article Maya linked in this morning? Considering the NVAX shorts and time of year? Still think a second wave is likely?

     

    General FYI: For the 2 weeks ending 12/31/2009, NVAX short interest dropped 5.06% /but/ days to cover increased to 7.1 from 6.2, due to the decreased trading volume.

     

    I think we still need to see some good news to get a pop and hope it's not too late to cause a big change in interest in the company. Ditto for VICL.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Jan 2010, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi HT! The news I am waiting for on Nvax concerns the clinical trials in Mexico. If those are successful, that opens up the Mexico and India plays. However, that news has to come pretty soon or the size of any pop will likely be diminished, and probably eaten up by the shorts.

     

    I know Mexico has only gotten half of the doses of H1N1 vaccine that they ordered, so that market is still there. I don't know what is going on in India, but I do know that if Nvax does not get going, they are going to miss their tide. Someone posted about a senior VP getting the sack at Nvax… I don't know what that was about. I will probably hold Nvax unless the proportion of shorts increases. If that occurs, I will sell it and wait for another day.

     

    On England's experts recommending the vaccine having ties to big Pharmaceuticals, I am not surprised by that. I don't think they inflated the potential problem; however, I do suspect that the existence of those ties might have influenced who got the business.

     

    Some time back I raised a question in one of the Swine Flu Concentrators as to why the US was providing major funding to foreign country vaccine manufacturers to reduce their production and research costs. Not providing funds to US companies placed those companies at a major competitive disadvantage. My guess is that many of the people on our vaccine advisory boards have similar ties to big Pharmaceuticals. That needs to be investigated.

     

    On H1N1 third wave, there is evidence for a third wave in Ireland. The Chinese New Year is in early February, and the Chinese are so concerned about the massive travelling and intermixing of people that they are recommending that people don't use mass transient in order to visit their relatives. I think there will be a third wave in some countries.
    15 Jan 2010, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    I posted that they canned their VP last week, but just yesterday they hired a new one. I bought into NVAX cheap, so I'm treating it as a trade at this point, with a moderate stop.

     

    I'm out of CVM again, LOL, though I made money on it once last year and once already this year. It is up a trifle today, and is hanging in the $.90-$1 range. Its a stock that will move on news, and has their Stage III Multikine trials set to start, as well as LEAPS. It would appear that they are also in line for farming out their new factory's "cold fill" state-of-the-art facility's service to other pharma companies.

     

    VICL continues as a strong winner for me among my scarce current holdings.
    15 Jan 2010, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2344) | Send Message
     
    Think in terms of the Earthquake and the hundreds of thousands now being exposed to the people of the various UN nations, some infected with one strain, others with different ones.

     

    It makes me shudder
    15 Jan 2010, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Viruses are inherently opportunistic.

     

    Disasters like the Haiti earthquake are rich pickings for them.
    16 Jan 2010, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    User et al:

     

    Thinking about H1N1 and our bio-pharma interests generally, it occurred to me that we have been northern hemispheric in our focus. So I checked with my wife and she informs me that in South America they too have flu seasons. So I got to wondering if Australia, parts of Africa, ... have flu seasons too and if we should expect demand for the products of the companies we've been following to show some uptick 3 - 6 months after our flu season is considered over.

     

    I'm just starting to take a look for such information and have substantial real-life drains on my time for the next month or so, so I just wanted to get this out there in case someone has time/knowledge already that might apply to this question.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jan 2010, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    User, HTL: Greetings. It is true that southern hemisphere annual flu season correlates to their seasonal changes much as ours does but their's is opposite ours. However they don't usually purchase the same volume of vaccines or medicines in general as we do in the northern hemisphere. This is largely due to inferior distribution systems and economic conditions.
    19 Jan 2010, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Absolutly correct HT... My focus has always been world wide, not limited to the US and Euro markets.

     

    Australia is very likely about to enter their second wave.... Cases in India are popping, and I anticipate an upsurge in China after their New Year in February.
    This is far from over....
    19 Jan 2010, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Robert and User:

     

    Thanks for that. It's the slight nudge here and there that I think might pan out for some of the ones we've been following. If we get a "second season" and anything unusual (more virulent mutations?) occurs, we might see all this work out well for us.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jan 2010, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (January 20) Sinovac Announces Plan to Launch Offering of Common Shares

     

    Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (SVA), a leading China-based vaccine manufacturer, today announced that it plans to sell, subject to market and other conditions, 8,650,000 common shares of the company in an underwritten public offering. Sinovac plans to grant the underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional 1,297,500 common shares to cover overallotments.

     

    Sinovac plans to use the net proceeds of the offering to fund the acquisition and expansion of production facilities, the enhancement of production lines, the research and development of product candidates, the expansion of product pipeline, and general corporate purposes (including an undetermined amount for potential acquisitions).

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...

     

    (ed: They did have a great 4th quarter... but now yet another dilution…. )
    21 Jan 2010, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    I'm still holding some (NVAX), though I suspect its just heading south. (Darn, I forgot to list that in the turtlefolio in Chat). Its clost to its stop, and may stop out yet today.

     

    I am watching (CVM) at about $.80 with some fascination, I wonder how low it will go. I consider it oversold at this point, but I'm not buying until it hits a plateau with some support demonstrated.
    21 Jan 2010, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    I'm holding it too. Freya said some time ago that it was headed to $2.30. It looks like it might make it. However ...

     

    That support was established with a gap up 4/24/9 and supported later 6/17 and 6/23. Further the latest shorts (as of 12/31 - I haven't published the updated chart yet) decreased 5.06% to ~12.7%. But the interesting thing is that the days to cover went to 7.1, the highest since the 11/13 report. This is because of the severely reduced daily average trading volume, down 86% from the Sep. 15 volume and 5% from 11/13.

     

    Since I believe that they will report positive sometime late this month and $2.30 is not far from my current average price, I'm hanging in there.

     

    Maybe foolish, but ...

     

    P.S. 15:51 Looks like it's bottoming in the next few days and getting ready to turn.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jan 2010, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Me too HT...
    21 Jan 2010, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Me three.

     

    I dropped the stop a bit, and will wait and see.

     

    LOL, for a few hours this afternoon I was thinking it was Friday, and planning accordingly!

     

    Frankly, though, this just makes the drop in prices today more worrisome. I hope we get some relief tomorrow, else the fall could accelerate to scary speeds.

     

    I'm already missing Maya. I hate that.
    21 Jan 2010, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    I expect tomorrow to be another blood bath to complete the retrenchment at around 6%-8%. Since we were expecting some thing along these lines I'm not alarmed or surprised. In fact I bought a block of Great Western Minerals (GWMGF) @$0.27. Only the second purchase this year.
    21 Jan 2010, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    robert: Good going with the GWM, I've got a chunk of that myself, long term holding, I bought in at about 24.5 cents avg a while back.

     

    I think you and I are two in the group that saw this coming. I'm not exulting now that it might be here (everything could still turn around tomorrow, its been that kind of crazy market).

     

    Most of my targets are predicated on buying stocks about 15-20% past their recent peaks, though I still won't be buying until the markets stabilize a bit.

     

    I appreciate the (DVR) tip, I am likely to buy into that company at some point, probably soon.

     

    I am watching (CVM) right now - its at $.80, well below the $.88-89 target I had been shooting for. We'll see how tomorrow goes, if the market starts going up, I might step in and buy some early.

     

    Same with the gold miners.
    21 Jan 2010, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    tripleblack: Greetings. I like the look of (DVR) asa well and will probably pull the trigger on it soon as well. I neede one more miner and am looking hard at Nautilus (NUSMF). I need another tech to replace (FFIV) maybe Rackspace Hosting (RAX).
    21 Jan 2010, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Yes, (NUSMF) is interesting, I looked it over last week.

     

    I recently picked up (SMOD), and it has been strong - went up today, for instance. I like its chances. Its my only tek stock right now, though if this turns into a correction, that will change fast.
    21 Jan 2010, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    Triple-
    Unexpected? I believe the market reaction to POTUS coming through with still another plan to punish the banks accounts for the 2% loss today, probably even more than China's tightening up credit. I can't quantify that, just a gut feeling. This is the "unintended" consequence of Coakley losing in MA. So, healthcare changes are dead, the Administration looks stupid, and they are in " let's do something" mode, again.
    This is notTaleb's "black swan" imo. Nope, just the democrats in action AGAIN!
    And wasn't Bernanke conspicuously absent from this discussion?
    21 Jan 2010, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    OG: I read back over my recent posts here, and can't find where I said "unexpected". Maybe I missed it, but I think I did use that phrase elsewhere, in a sarcastic or ironic way. I have of course been expecting the BLS numbers to unwind - for Obama to beat up the banks as soon as he needed a handy set of scapegoats - and most of all for a correction of the 5-15% variety (barring any additional mishap of the geopolitical nature, of course). I bet on it big time when I sold off 90% of my holdings and retreated into cash. Hey, and note that XRX has been doing real well, even so!

     

    Note that we had the first shocks of this quake Tuesday, which I WOULD attribute to the Chinese interest rate change (which if you read over their part of the last Scotland G20 agreement, and which I sited somewhere on here months ago, was predictable as occurring somewhere close to Feb 1). They jumped the gun a few weeks, probably just to show how unpredictable and bad ass they are, but come February ALL the "emerging" members of the G20 can, if they choose, do the same or more. India would be one to watch, plus Brazil, and of course China for further changes. I see us down about 3% against the recent S&P peak, so far. Another 2% drop and I will start to open up and look for buys. I plan to be in full invest mode going forward from that point, assuming I can figure out some sort of trend to the correction.

     

    I agree, the Regime is once again demonstrating their ability to wreck the markets in real time on TV. Bernanke IS laying low, as he should, until Congress sorts out what they are going to do with the Fed.

     

    BUT I see gridlock settling into place in Congress, something that Obama obviously does not realize just yet. He needs to put away his Saul Alinsky playbook and start looking at the history of Jimmah Carter, unless he seeks to repeat it.

     

    I would agree that the market spasm was amplified by the bank attack, which was amazingly poor timing EXCEPT in the sense of mending political fences for Obama on the far left, which is precisely the wrong area for him to be mending fences right now, imo.

     

    The unemployment numbers were "unexpected" by the Regime, LOL, probably because they are truly acquiring a bunker mentality, while their henchmen feed them nonsense numbers to keep them happy. Any piercing of the rainbow fantasy by reality will precipitate an outburst.

     

    www.youtube.com/watch?...
    22 Jan 2010, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    The huge demand for our treasuries by foreigners all of the sudden seems to me to be the cause of a strengthening dollar and we know the stock market moves in the opposite direction of the dollar. At least for the past year or so.

     

    Foreigners have to buy dollars first to then buy treasuries. This could continue for some time.

     

    Greece failing may be part of why money is moving swiftly and strongly into the dollar. Fear!! Throughout Europe.

     

    I heard from a friend today that the dollar is at the top of the most favored currency right now. I looked on the net and could not find such a measure or graph but I don't doubt him.

     

    I don't see anything changing quickly. I am sure the fact that we are not going to go another trillion plus into debt spending money on a defunct health care plan helps also. However I did see that the Dems want to raise our debt limit by $1.9 trillion which would off set any gains discussed.

     

    Question is what are they planning on spending that money for. I am concerned. This would plunge the dollar again I feel. Keep your ears open for that news since I believe the timing of that will be important.
    21 Jan 2010, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2344) | Send Message
     
    Didn't Moody's Upgrade Greece due to their proposed budget even though the EU still seems unimpressed?
    22 Jan 2010, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2344) | Send Message
     
    On NVAX, huge Hole between 2-2.50. It could close it but if it doesn't, it will be very, very bullish.

     

    As far as the Markets are concerned, I still expect it to hold 10,300. Just a "small" gut feeling. The current mayhem could be profit taking, could be an adjustment to the Bullet between the Eyes the Dems took on Tea Tuesday, could be that Obama has only one horse left to Beat.

     

    Still own everything. NXTH held rather nicely these last few days.
    22 Jan 2010, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    (NXTH) is an interesting product, Freya, Susta. I am going to buy some next time I go shopping and give it a try. If they make it past this bump staying above $1 (and keep the services of Shaq), and I like their product, I will give them a whirl.
    23 Jan 2010, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: I don't think this is the one we've been waiting for, but one never knows.

     

    HardToLove

     

    ... presenting at the upcoming Phacilitate Vaccine Forum Washington 2010. The Conference will take place January 25-27, 2010 at the Grand Hyatt, Washington, D.C. Mr. John Trizzino, Senior Vice President of International and Government Alliances will be participating in a Focus Session: Fast Tracking the development of - and path to licensure for - a novel manufacturing platform by utilizing it in pandemic influenza efforts on January 26, 2010 at 4:15pm.

     

    Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and CEO will be presenting a Case Study: Small Company/Big Company interplay: How does it all connect around manufacturing, supply chain, and the need for dose sparing? on January 27, 2010 at 12:55 pm.
    25 Jan 2010, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    (CVM) is trading at $.70, well below my earlier target, now tracking, waiting on a full read on "correction?".
    25 Jan 2010, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9983) | Send Message
     
    Want to focus...but the carpet cleaners are here. I'm looking at pulling the trigger on (NVAX) in my brokerage account. Think $2.30 is a good entry price? Stochastic is approaching a six month low. Novavax is well below all the moving averages. The two problems I have is that we're still maybe 18 months FDA approval, and that we may be years away from having another epidemic where rapid production of a vaccine is necessary.

     

    The other notion, is the quant trading article I read while watching the playoffs yesterday, which Loundsbury wrote about. I haven't checked the market volumes today, as compared to last week's volumes. What I want to know is if this up day is a "false lead."
    25 Jan 2010, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Maya: I have 1000 shares nvax right now that I bought at 2.40 but we'll see, I am holding it right now with a stop set at 2.10 out of curiousity, as much as anything else.

     

    The quant article sure caught my eye this morning. I just glanced at the last week's volume chart, and every day showed a single huge spike just before the closing bell. The spike was largest on the down days. Today's volume MIGHT show the same volume pattern, but we won't know until the end.

     

    Note that the hideous housing news made only a minor blip.
    25 Jan 2010, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    You're asking folks who thought it was good at $4.xx, $3.xx, ... before we found out what the short positions were. All was predicated on the progression of trials in India and Mexico (more Mex results expected soon).

     

    Further, the southern hemisphere has a flu season as well, which has not started yet. But as User(?) pointed out, they don't tend to buy the huge quantities.

     

    My recent update on the shorts (not published yet - waiting for the 1/31 update) indicates that although the shorts are droppng, the days to cover is dramatically higher, due to the severely reduced daily volume. This portends a short squeeze if/when a catalyst appears.

     

    seekingalpha.com/autho...

     

    Having said that, the charts indicate a near-term bottom /again/, but we've seen this before - bottom, rise a little, then head back down. Good for near-term trades, but not long-term.

     

    I'm not adding to my position (but not selling either) until I see something come along that indicates a good strong up-side potential. The Mex/India results would be one. Merger/buy-out would be another. Sudden indication of fear in the shorts (detected by intra-day price action and volume) might be another.

     

    If I was in the advice giving business, which I'm definitely not, I'd say give up a little of the initial upside by waiting until a change in behavior is seen. Maybe one takes 20% instead of 30% gain (e.g.), but right now I see it as a small downside risk, but almost no indication (yet!) of upside.

     

    14:08 EST: P.S. Trading below all SMA, by a big margin. So no support from folks following those right now either.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jan 2010, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9983) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, TB. Think I'm going to wait until after Obama's State Of The Union speech, Wednesday, before I pull the trigger on anything.

     

    The Quant article was an amazing read.

     

    Have to figure out when to get ~150K back into the market, and in what? So I'll be probably checking in here more than I thought.
    25 Jan 2010, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    I agree, though for the sake of my mental health I'll read the transcript.

     

    I know just what you mean about getting my cash (now 98%) back into the market. I have a long list of candidates, just need the "go" signal. I have NEVER hit the exact right moment yet, but if I get it close, I'm a happy camper. In March I was a week past the bottom, and did not get 100% invested until the last week in March.

     

    Regardless what the fairytales say, turtles really don't win many races.
    25 Jan 2010, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree with HT… wait and see… I am anticipating positive NVAX news at the end of January or the start of February… My biggest fear is a shelf offering. I think another shelf offering will suck the life out of this stock just as it did with SVA. So you need to keep that risk in mind….
    25 Jan 2010, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Hi gang: Retrenchment part one has been booked, now for the real fun to begin. As stated I'm increasing my cash position while reducing exposure to bonds and will continue doing so in to March. I fully expect another down leg unless Uncle Sugar extends the MBS purchase program past FEB. While that would keep the market floating for a while longer sooner or later it will have to be wound down. The question then becomes how? Repackage the stuff and try reselling it like the FDIC is advocating for it's toxic waste? Or some thing more exotic and less transparent to lure unsuspecting marks....er investors? Is there a liquidity trap looming at the end of March? Beware the ides of March sounds like good advice to me Julius.
    25 Jan 2010, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9983) | Send Message
     
    Hard: Much appreciated! In my brokerage account all stocks I choose are long choices during this current business cycle. Long term, I'm seeing NVAX as an eventual "in" to a decent dividend paying major pharm stock. The idea is to buy now, or soon, and play the waiting game until some monster pharm can't help but buy the technology at a significantly higher per share price than current levels, the shares then flip into that big pharma company.

     

    In summary, say over a two year time frame, NVAX could double or triple if a big pharm buys it. So, say we get a double. You put in $X and then have $2X after the double, and then the $2X starts receiving something in the three to four % dividend range, while also participating in the growth of the pharm stock.

     

    That's the "third-eye," crystal ball, shaman-tossing-chicken... plan I'm ruminating about with NVAX.

     

    Thanks again, Hard, TB, User!

     

    25 Jan 2010, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HT, maybe that spike was Maya… I have seen him move markets before! GWM for one…. Who knows what he has learned from studying the Mayan Civilization…they were very advanced.
    25 Jan 2010, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • SAS70
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    Picked up 5000 NVAX @ 2.30 earlier
    25 Jan 2010, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You don't fool around SAS! Are you planning to be long?
    25 Jan 2010, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Volume chart today for the DJIA was VERY similar to that from last Tuesday.
    25 Jan 2010, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Why I think it's the shorts and there is a trade opportunity. Last time I did this I made a little.

     

    First, 09:30 - 10:00 130.73K shares, not unusual. 8% of total volume for the day. BUT ...

     

    09:30 - 09:32 price goes from $2.39 to a high of $2.56. My assessment is that someone was trying to trigger the trailing stops because by 09:41 it was down to $2.35 low.

     

    From that point on, it had one little pop to $2.42 and then trailed down on low volume to $2.28 @ 11:16. Stays essentially flat with little up/down moves in price and volume until shortly after 14:00.

     

    At 14:09, price begins a sustained move up on generally increasing volume. By the end of the day, 57% of total volume traded between 14:00 and 16:00. The last 10 minutes of the day had the highest aggregate volume (by a visual "guesstimate" only) of any comparable period in the day and the day ended at the high, if the manipulation of the 1st 12 minutes are ignored.

     

    Today's candlestick pattern tried to make a "bullish engulfing pattern", It didn't quite make it, because it didn't open lower and the close didn't quite swallow the shadow of the prior day. But it was darn close to doing it.

     

    So I think a bullish move is indicated when combined with the evidence of the short covering and manipulation and the rest of the chart patterns.

     

    These include a stochastic that has now crossed towards up, but still in "oversold", volume today (1.69MM) a tad higher than the last 4 days' average of 1.6MM, RSI just missed making oversold and turned up, MFI neutral and momentum improving from .86 to .9, yesterday to today.

     

    In the past, when we've seen moves up, it has only lasted 2 - 3 days. This may or may not be different.

     

    I intend to watch for a price spike, on good volume, in the first few minutes of trading and then see if the price is allowed to trail down in the following few minutes. If so, I'll watch the trend on the charts and hope to get in prior to 11:15 or so in the high $2.30 - low $2.40 range with generally low volume being observed. Then from the early afternoon on, watch for a move up that looks to be sustained (volume begins to build after a long low-volume period) of $0.05 or more and, depending on what I see, then set 1 day trailing stops or decide to go for another day before doing so.

     

    If things don't look right, this plan goes into the circular file.

     

    Wish me luck. My leaning is that some of the shorts are covering and we might see a few up days at least. If not, I've added at low cost, again. My feeling is that the downside risk for a few days is ver low since we have now penetrated $2.30 and bounced back from it. This should look attractive to the holders of the 12MM or so short positions, so price pressure should be up, even if only mildly.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jan 2010, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Wow… Now that's a detailed plan. I like any plan that takes advantage of the shorts….. What do you see as your potential percent profit?
    25 Jan 2010, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Go to Current Swine Flu News Concentrator...

     

    This one is closed now.
    25 Jan 2010, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Link to Current Swine Flu News Concentrator:

     

    seekingalpha.com/user/...
    25 Jan 2010, 05:52 PM Reply Like
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