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  • Swine Flu News Concentrator (January 25 - February 12) 102 comments
    Jan 25, 2010 5:31 PM | about stocks: APT, BAX, BCRX, BDX, CBM, CLX, CVM, DGX, ECL, HOLX, GSK, INO, MMM, NVAX, NVS, PURE, ROG, SVA, VICL
    Explanation:

    I will post Swine-Flu and related articles under this heading.  The top of the instablog will contain my current months key links  preceded with a one or two liner that explains the link.  A more complete summary of the link will be in the comments area.  At the bottom of the Instablog we have definition of terms, a summary of Swine Flu / vaccine investment plays, the 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map, Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu, and Memory Alpha which contains links to previous news concentrators and authors articles on the subject.

    I will be backing this up frequently as well.
    Last backup:  

    _____________________

    Update History:
    Added Overview of H1N1 / Categories of Vaccine Investment Plays Added Memory Alpha
    Added Link to Google's Swine Flu Infection Map
    Added Red Cross Tips for Dealing With The Flu
    Added definition of EUA and PREP act
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into two parts for October
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into three parts for October
    Added Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 1
    Bolded References to Older Swine Flu Concentrators in Memory Alpha
    Expanded the list of stocks discussed in the tags
    Alphabetized stocks in the tags
    Updated the play by stock list
    Added a table that contains the web site addresses for the companies discussed
    Moved links over one month old to the new Memory Alpha Reference Library
    Added definitions of Clinical Trials and Protocol.
    Corrected Roche stock symbol in the web site table
    _____________________
    January Links:
    Swine Flu News Concentrator January 1 to January 25
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-2...


    ___________________
    Some Definitions:

    Swine Flu - Novel H1N1 flu, popularly known as swine flu, is a respiratory infection caused by an influenza virus first recognized in spring 2009. The new virus, which is officially called swine influenza A (H1N1), contains genetic material from human, swine and avian flu viruses. (By Mayo Clinic staff)

    Pandemic - The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people.

    A World Health Organization phase 6 pandemic indicates that influenza due to the novel H1N1 swine flu is occurring in multiple countries around the world and that human infection is widespread. The classification does not reflect the severity of individual infections.

    Cytokine Storm -
    When our body detects foreign micro-organisms indicating an infection, our body might respond by over-protecting the site of infection. The body may race so many antibodies to the infection site that they collect in what is known as a cytokine storm.

    A cytokine storm, or "Hypercytokinemia" is a potentially fatal immune reaction consisting of a positive feedback loop between cytokines and immune cells.
    www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-st...

    A positive feedback loop means that as something increases, that increase stimulates further growth.

    What makes younger people more susceptible to H1N1 is that their “vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs.

    This vulnerability in the young is reminiscent of the Spanish flu of 1918. That strain of flu also struck mostly healthy young adults.

    Pulmonary Embolism - Occurs when a blood clot forms in an arm or leg breaks free and enters the lungs where it is too large to pass through the small vessels of the lungs and forms a blockage. This stops blood from flowing into an area of the lung, and the part of the lung dies because it does not receive oxygen.
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/153796.php

    What is an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?
    An EUA may be issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow either the use of an unapproved medical product or an unapproved use of an approved medical product during certain types of emergencies with specified agents.

    What is the PREP Act?
    The PREP Act authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (“Secretary”) to issue a declaration (“PREP Act declaration”) that provides immunity from tort liability (except for willfull misconduct) for claims of loss caused, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats and conditions determined by the Secretary to constitute a present, or credible risk of a future public health emergency to entities and individuals involved in the development, manufacture, testing, distribution, administration, and use of such countermeasures.

    The PREP Act also authorizes an emergency fund in the United States Treasury to provide compensation for injuries directly caused by administration or use of a countermeasure covered by the Secretary’s declaration. While no funds have been appropriated for this purpose, if funds are appropriated, compensation may then be available for medical benefits, lost wages and death benefits to individuals for specified injuries.
    cdc.gov/h1n1flu/eua/qa.htm

    What are Clinical Trials:
    Clinical trials, also known as clinical studies, are research studies in which scientists and doctors test new drugs and treatments to see if they will improve health. Many of today's treatments for cancer are based on the results of past clinical trials. Because of progress made through clinical trials, many people treated for cancer are now living longer.

    Clinical trials are divided into four phases.
    Phase 1 trials: These trials are the first time a new drug or treatment is given to humans. They are normally carried out in a small number of volunteers (typically 6-20 people) who may include healthy volunteers or patients with the disease for which the product is intended as a treatment in order to find out how safe the treatment is. They also look at how a new drug should be given (by mouth, injected into muscle or the bloodstream, etc.), how often and at what dose. Phase 1 trials can also involve patients for whom standard therapies have failed and for whom no other therapies are available.

    Phase 2 trials: These trials involve larger numbers of people (typically 12 - 50). Phase 2 trials continue to look at safety of the therapy but also test how well the new drug or treatment works in patients with different disease types.

    Phase 3 trials: These are large studies (100+ people) that look at how well a new drug or treatment works in comparison to current therapies to see which treatment is better. Those taking part are usually divided into two treatment groups: standard treatment versus new treatment.

    Phase 4 trials: These trials are usually carried out after the drug or treatment has been approved by the FDA and is readily available for use in the general patient population. The purpose of Phase 4 trials is to continue to study the effects of the drug or treatment on different populations and to look for side effects associated with long-term use.
    Back to Top

    What is a Protocol:
    Clinical trials use written guidelines called protocols. The protocol explains what the trial hopes to accomplish, how the trial will be carried out, and why each part of the trial is necessary. For example, the protocol includes:

        * The reason for doing the trial
        * How many people will be in the trial
        * Who is eligible to take part in the trial
        * What study drugs participants will need to take
        * What medical tests participants will have and how often
        * What information will be gathered

    Every doctor or research center that takes part in the trial uses the same protocol. This makes sure that patients are treated identically no matter where they are receiving treatment, and that information from all the centers taking part can be combined and compared.

    Why Slow Production for Traditionally Produced (chicken eggs) Swine Flu Vaccine:
    One dose of swine flu vaccine for every two eggs, compared with two doses of seasonal flu vaccine per egg
    http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/10/22/quest_for_swine_flu_vaccine_giving_some_firms_a_boost/

    _____________________
    Brief Overview of Categories of H1N1/ Vaccine Investment Plays:

    I - Vaccines / Prevention
    1) Production Method / Capacity plays (NASDAQ:NVAX) (NASDAQ:VICL) (NYSE:NVS) (NASDAQ:INO)
    2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play (SVA - China) (NVAX - India)
    3) Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) (NYSE:BAX) (NYSE:BDX)
    4) Outsourced production plays
    5) Bio -Defence (MDCGF - France)
    6) Anti-Mutation / Pan-Influenza Play (NYSEMKT:CVM) (NYSEMKT:NNVC) (INO)
    7) Universal Flu Vaccine Play (INO)

    II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
    1) Dealing with severe lung infections (Fludase® (DAS181)) (NYSE:CBM) (OTCQB:AEMD)
    2) ICU treatments (NASDAQ:BCRX) (NYSE:GSK) (NYSE:ROG)
    III - Population Avoidance:
    1) masks/ disinfectants… Surgical masks are good enough (NYSEMKT:APT) (NYSE:MMM) (NYSE:CLX) (NYSE:ECL) (OTCQB:PURE)

    IV - Testing do you have it? (NASDAQ:GPRO)
    1) Test kits - (NYSE:DGX)

    V - Merger / Acquisitions / Licensing (VICL) (NVAX)
    _____________________
    Sorry this is still a graphic instead of a table. I played with the table tool, but its a
    PITA to work with.

    Swine Flu Companies Discussed and Their Web Sites


    _____________________
    Swine Flu Hits Stuffed Animal World:



    2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map:
    The Link is from DoubleGuns
    flutracker.rhizalabs.com/

    I am not too happy with any of the outbreak maps. They all make the same mistake, they try to show the worlds data on one chart. This makes them SLOW.
    I will keep looking for one that works faster.
    _____________________

    Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu:

    IF YOU ARE ILL -
    * Stay in a room separate from common areas of the home and avoid contact with others as much as possible.

    * Stay at home for at least 24 hours after their fever is gone without using medicine to reduce the fever.

    * Get lots of rest and drink plenty of fluids.

    * Consider wearing a facemask, if available and tolerable, when sharing common spaces with household members. (ed - surgical masks ok).

    * Check with your healthcare provider about whether to take antiviral medication, or if fever persists, whether antibiotics are needed.

    WHEN CARING FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS THE FLU -
    *Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces that everyone touches.

    * Use detergent and very hot water to do dishes and wash clothes. It's okay to wash everyone's dishes and clothes together. Wash your hands after handling dirty laundry.

    * Designate only one adult as the caregiver. People at increased risk of severe illness from the flu should not be caregivers.

    * Although not mentioned by the Red Cross, the caregiver should probably ware a surgical mask as well when entering the sick room.

    * Deal with crisis situations calmly and confidently to give the best support to the person being cared for.
    _____________________

    MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season

    Click here to link to the Mayo tool:
    www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...

    _____________________
    Suggeted Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php

    After comparing more than two dozen possible scenarios for closing a school, the analysis suggested three optimal scenarios:

    1. A single-day influenza-related absentee rate of 5 percent

    2. Absenteeism of 4 percent or more on two consecutive days

    3. Absenteeism of 3 percent or more on three consecutive days


    Older references are stored in the MEMORY ALPHA REFERENCE LIBRARY
    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-user-283977/37565-memory-alpha-reference-library





    Disclosure: NVAX, NNVC, SVA, VICL (sometimes trading, sometimes holding)
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Comments (102)
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  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    User: you said "Wow… Now that's a detailed plan. I like any plan that takes advantage of the shorts….. What do you see as your potential percent profit?"

     

    As much as I would like to detail my plans to that level, on stocks of this nature (speculative, heavily shorted, ...), I can't feel any confidence in whatever I might target. But I've gained some confidence in my "gut hunches" on chart activity on stocks that I've been watching in detail.

     

    With so many unknowns in tangentially-related areas (dollar, seasons, overall market action, ...) that I'm not competent to integrate into my assessments, I'm left with a "jump in/out when it looks right" strategy.

     

    I don't know how many years of learning I'll need to handle these sorts of stocks more "scientifically". Larger-cap, more stable equities seem simpler since we can use various ratios (Price to cash flow, earnings, leverage, ...) and overall market trends to reach reasonable targets.

     

    With a short-term trade in mind, I figure $100 is better than a swift kick, so I'll be happy to make something (like I did with the options I sold on NVAX - didn't make a lot, but it was like getting dividends on it and I was happy as a pig in mud for that).

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jan 2010, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    VICL: will present an overview of its DNA vaccine and adjuvant technologies and an update on its clinical-stage vaccine development
    programs at the Phacilitate Vaccine Forum (Washington - January 25-27). Alain P. Rolland, Pharm.D., Ph.D., Vical's Executive Vice President of Product Development, is scheduled to present on Wednesday, January 27, at 12:55 p.m.

     

    Dr. Rolland's presentation, "Delivery systems and adjuvants for DNA-based vaccines: Development of prophylactic and therapeutic vaccines," highlights the interim Phase 2 clinical data for the company's TransVax(TM) therapeutic cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine for transplant recipients, and the development of its Vaxfectin(R)-adjuvanted H5N1 and H1N1 pandemic influenza DNA vaccines.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Jan 2010, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Pre-market, trades in $2.50 range. Makes me think we'll see the spike in the first few minutes. I really expect to see that drop down, like yesterday. Hammer cocked and ready to go for a short-term trade if it flattens and acts like yesterday.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Jan 2010, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Pattern didn't hold, so I stepped back. After the spike, "flatness" settled in the higher range. Now up to $2.48 (+1.22%). I suspected it might move on up since the retracement didn't happen, but I didn't have the guts to jump on it in the high $2.3x range.

     

    This may mean a little longer uptrend than the normal 2-3 days. I'll be looking at the charts tonight to see if I can tell anything.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Jan 2010, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Interesting bid/ask volumes @ 12:50 EST at level 1 $2.32x$2.33 we seen over 10 times as many bid shares as offered. May get a nice intra-day pop later if this holds for a while.

     

    5 to 1 now 12:53

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jan 2010, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    VICL: ... "completed enrollment of the planned 375 subjects in its multinational Phase 3 trial of Allovectin-7® in patients with metastatic melanoma. Allovectin-7® is a novel gene-based immunotherapeutic with a unique mechanism of action that is fundamentally different from currently approved treatments, and has the potential to be the first new primary treatment approved for metastatic melanoma in nearly 20 years".

     

    Full release here.

     

    ir.vical.com/releasede...

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jan 2010, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Good news for (VICL), could go up a good bit from that...

     

    (NVAX) is due, HTL, I agree with your thinking, hope that trend plays out long enough to extend into solid gains...

     

    (CVM) is beaten down, finances are deep in red ink, leaving this one alone lacking any reason to buy right now. Wondering why they have not signed any customers for their new cold-fill facility, for instance...

     

    (DUSA) is priced to sell, but now's the time to watch not buy, imo.
    28 Jan 2010, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX, on the charts is trying to make the turn up from here. But only the stochastic has flipped up, and has crossed up,. But still very much on the weak side. The other indicators are still weak to neutral. The encouraging part is that during the downward trend the volume has been generally anemic, indicating not a lot of sellers dumping out. With the short interest still pretty high and the days to cover over 7 days, due to the weak volume, any good news release that sparks even a small surge in interest should put the hurt on the shorts.

     

    If it tries to move up, recent resistance, newest to oldest, will be encountered @ $2.50, $2.55, $2.60 (with such a small spread, I guess we could look at them as one resistance) and support is @ ~$2.30 from June 17 & 23rd.

     

    I made 2.5% on it yesterday as a one day trade. I felt it might run two or three days, but it has been unable to sustain runs of longer than that recently, so I opted to do a one day.

     

    As a longer-term, I really am counting only on getting the good news about India and Mexico for now.

     

    AEM: dollar meandering pennies above/below yesterday's close - no direction yet. Oil & gold generally up a tad so far. The stochastic crossed up day-before yesterday and is diverging up more, but still down in the low side. Others unchanged at negative and RSI is flat-lined at just above oversold since the 21st.

     

    With volume holding steady, even with yesterdays' dust up, it could go either way today. My gut is telling me that today's low might not hit $52.40 and I think should finish up for the day.

     

    CPST: two days in a row the bottom has held while we've had higher highs. RSI & MFI both right on oversold and stochastic has gone from 0%K three days ago and crossed up and diverging more strongly up, although still "oversold". Volume still weak though. It is early, per the charts, but if I see $1.14 or so today I'm going to grab a small handful. This is because it seems that the chance of the $1.10 seems small, since the lows have held and the highs are increasing.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jan 2010, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    OOPS! Forgot which insta I was in. Sorry about the AEM/CPST comments.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jan 2010, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (January 28) Sinovac Biotech prices 10.0M common shares at $5.75/share. This reflects an increase in the size of the offering from the previously announced offering of 8.65M common shares.
    finance.yahoo.com/mark...
    28 Jan 2010, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (January 29) A SECOND wave of swine flu may hit Australia as soon as next month, a top infectious diseases expert warns.

     

    Paediatrician Professor Robert Booy, from the University of Sydney's Children's Hospital, spoke out yesterday saying he was concerned at the low take-up of vaccinations against the virus.

     

    He says critics who questioned the value of the vaccines sounded the "death-knell" for what would otherwise have been a way to control the virus, subsequently reducing its spread and the deaths the virus is likely to cause.

     

    Other continents, including Europe and Asia, have already had a second wave "and ours is coming", he said.
    www.news.com.au/adelai...
    28 Jan 2010, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HT - What do you make of this?

     

    (January 12) On October 20, 2009, Novavax, Inc. ("Novavax") and Xcellerex, Inc. ("Xcellerex") entered into a proposal and binding term sheet (the "Agreement") pursuant to which Xcellerex will manufacture a fixed quantity of bulk drug substance of Novavax's 2009 H1N1 vaccine ("Bulk Material") for Novavax's potential use and sale in Mexico.

     

    On January 7, 2010, Novavax and Xcellerex entered into an amendment (the "Amendment") to the Agreement. The Amendment extends Novavax's right to terminate the Agreement for various reasons to February 15, 2010.

     

    The Amendment also provides that Novavax will only pay Xcellerex a "per dose" fee upon the commercial sale of vaccine containing Bulk Material, rather than upon its manufacture, as was stipulated originally in the Agreement.
    biz.yahoo.com/e/100112...
    28 Jan 2010, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    My take when I read it was that NVAX was covering their bases in case sales didn't occur. This way if they don't get sales this year they don't have to pay for manufactured product if they miss the season or sales don't go well.

     

    From that, I suspected that management might be a little uncertain if they would get the commercial results this year from their effort. But I find it too easy to imagine the worst, so I decided to wait.

     

    The Australia thing offers the possibility that Southern Hemisphere may provide some opportunities, but as you(?) said, there doesn't tend to be the same large quantities used down there.

     

    NVAX still has the contract stuff, so there should be some revenue helping them along towards good results. If nothing else, they should be able to stay afloat until the good results of their efforts start to pay off.

     

    But I tend to be optimistic, so ...

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jan 2010, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That's how I was reading it.... I know their CEO said that if they have not started manufacturing in February, they would miss this flu season so they are covering their bases just in case... Its getting close to a decision time for me....
    28 Jan 2010, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Didn't you already set your stop? I thought I saw that.

     

    That post included a phrase that made me think that we have a similar outlook in many ways."I have better things to do ..." is encapsulated in "opportunity cost", which I try to balance in with the other factors I'm trying to learn to use.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jan 2010, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Right, your opportunity costs are indeed the same as my "I have better things to do " which means better uses for the capital...

     

    I still think Nvax is a great stock, but I have learned that the longer you stay in a stock with negative earnings, the more likely you are going to get hit with a shelf offering.

     

    I am wondering... why wait around and take the almost certain risk of getting diluted when you could use the capital for an investment with a quicker payoff? I have drawn my line in the sand at 2.25. The next line will be time. They are rapidly running out of time to be able to manufacture H1N1 vaccine for the current season.

     

    Based on that backstop amendment with Xcellerex, it looks like if they don't have news on the Mexican trials by Monday, I figure they are going to miss their manufacturing window. I wonder if that is why we are seeing the price drop on a daily basis?
    28 Jan 2010, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    I think you might be right about the window vs. the steady price drop. With very low trading volume, a large short position, folks afraid to enter because of the window thing, ...

     

    I've got a little bit of a cushion (not a lot, but some) from selling $6 call options when I first got in and trading in and out when I could. If I sold out right now I'm only down about $0.50-$0.80 per share, depending on what price I use.

     

    That gives me a little wiggle room before I decide I've got to cut my losses by dumping. I have, in effect, been cutting my loses as I went along by the options selling and the trading.

     

    The hard part is in recognizing if I'm fighting a losing battle or the time frame is so long that the opportunity cost, in time as well as $, is too great to continue in it.

     

    But, you know, I think that's one of the things I enjoy (when I have my emotions properly dialed down) - the complexity of trying to learn, figure all this out and apply it successfully.

     

    The successful part is still really sporadic. But I'm holding up well enough and see myself slowly gaining (both in $ and more frequent proper application of what I'm learning) and I am heartened.

     

    I made BIG mistakes when I first started and suffered greatly, both in $ and emotional stress. But time, sweat, ... I'm long-term hopeful.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jan 2010, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    [quote] Experimental vaccine works against Chikungunya
    Thu Jan 28, 2010 4:07pm ESTStocks
    Merck & Co., Inc.
    MRK.N
    $37.97
    -0.67-1.73%
    3:01pm EST
    Novavax Inc
    NVAX.O
    $2.30
    -0.12-4.96%
    3:00pm EST
    Cadila Healthcare Ltd
    CADI.BO
    Rs691.70
    -4.10-0.59%
    12:00am EST
    * Mosquito-borne virus is very painful but rarely fatal

     

    * Trade, travel, climate change boosting mosquito species

     

    * Next step is human testing, researchers say

     

    By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor

     

    WASHINGTON, Jan 28 (Reuters) - An experimental vaccine works against the newly spreading Chikungunya virus, at least in monkeys, and the approach may also work against other exotic viruses, U.S. government researchers reported on Thursday.

     

    They used virus-like particles, which are mock versions of the virus that resemble an empty shell, to vaccinate monkeys against the rarely fatal but painful mosquito-borne infection.

     

    "At a time when there are no commercially available vaccines ... a virus-like particle vaccine has the potential to have a considerable impact on the spread of this disease," Dr. Gary Nabel of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and colleagues wrote in the journal Nature Medicine

     

    They said the same approach may be useful similar mosquito-borne viruses, known as alphaviruses.

     

    Chikungunya, first seen in the 1950s, came back in 2004 and 2005 and has since spread to nearly 20 countries to infect millions. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has a map here CH_GlobalMap.html.

     

    It is rarely fatal but it causes debilitating pain and exhaustion and can have long-term or even permanent effects.

     

    "Changes in trade, travel and global climate have aided the spread of mosquito species worldwide, which may potentially cause other alphavirus outbreaks," they wrote.

     

    "Our approach may prove useful for vaccine development against other pathogenic alphaviruses, including Western, Eastern and Venezuelan equine encephalitis viruses, O'nyong-nyong virus and Ross River virus."

     

    O'nyong-nyong virus is similar to Chikungunya and is found in Uganda, while Ross River virus affects Australia, Papua New Guinea and other Pacific islands.

     

    People have tried to make a Chikungunya vaccine but one attempt caused similar symptoms to infection and others did not do well in testing.

     

    Nabel's team tried making virus-like particles, an approach that Merck and Co (MRK.N) uses in a vaccine against the human papillomavirus that causes cervical cancer.

     

    These particles resemble hollowed-out viruses, which the body can recognize and attack. They cannot cause infection on their own.

     

    Vaccinated monkeys fought off infection and the antibodies their bodies made against Chikungunya also protected mice, Nabel's team reported.

     

    "Because virus-like-protein-based vaccines are currently safely used in people for protection against hepatitis B and human papillomavirus infections, they may prove to be a practical candidate for Chikungunya vaccine efforts," the researchers wrote.

     

    Nabel said the next step is human testing.

     

    Maryland-based vaccine maker Novavax (NVAX.O) has been using virus-like particles to make vaccines against influenza and has teamed up with Cadila Pharmaceuticals (CADI.BO) in India to make vaccines they hope will work against influenza and perhaps dengue fever and Chikungunya. (Editing by Eric Walsh) [quote]

     

    Could be good news, NVAX is up in after hours trading.
    28 Jan 2010, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: made another low today, $2.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jan 2010, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Golly - I had a big typo there. At the time I posted, it was $2.26. Since then it got worse - $2.23.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jan 2010, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    LOL, so much for NVAX, I stopped out at 2.24. So it goes. Back on the watch list. Luckily, I only had 1000 shares.
    29 Jan 2010, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX Short interest from latest report, covering the Jan period we were interested in. As of 01/15/2010, 12,496,590 short, down 2.61% with average daily volume of 2,213,605 it would take 5.65 days to cover.

     

    So, that action we saw in early Jan that we (?) suspected might be short covering seems to be the case.

     

    Still around a 13%-14% short interest I would guess (I forget the shares of float).

     

    Sorry you got stopped out. I'm hanging on for now as I also have relatively small positions. If your luck is like mine, now that you're out there'll be big news out next week and you'll be banging your head against the wall. :-(( At least that's what I used to feel like doing. And it didn't matter if it was a large or small position.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jan 2010, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    You know, I just got to thinking: I'll bet the shorts are still hammering. After NVAX didn't take off when the were (we think?) covering, they could see that as weakness and jumped right back on it. Now I'm looking to see what the 2/15 report shows for this two weeks.

     

    Want to be there's an increase? Unless they decide (again?) that this is a good place to cover. I'll have to be alert for that - might be another 2-3% trade opportunity there.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jan 2010, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX price just above support from May 19 - 23, $2.15.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jan 2010, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    No problems, HTL, when I went "totally turtle" back at Christmas, I have been pretty immune to setbacks since. I still have a few stocks, and put small trades into the markets, and I made money from Christmas to last week, because I was keeping tight stops and risking only about 5-6% of my cash anyway. By taking profits and playing on house money, I guaranteed a small profit, even when I loosened up the stops on NVAX just to see what happened. No harm done, it was a clear gamble.

     

    I'm always filled with confusion when I enter turtle mode, now more than ever, since I am sharing the process with everyone on SA. Its satisfying to make money, of course, and to see all the research and thought as to strategy and timing play out - and thus far, correctly. If anything getting the correction going this early in the year (I had anticipated February to mid-March as the more likely epicenter) is an advantage, it should shorten my wait period. Still its hard to be disciplined and wait on the good days, and hard to watch my non-turtle friends take their lumps on the bad days.

     

    Right now the lower the plunge the better for me, and that is another source of mixed feelings. I hope for the sake of the country and my fellows that the markets are kind, and that a long upward run reflecting great economic news occurs instead... But I don't trade based upon hopes, but upon the hard, realpolitik conclusions all my researching creates.

     

    So I am a happy turtle right now, but NOT doing handsprings (can turtles even DO handsprings?) in the end zone, despite a small loss in NVAX (which frankly helped to scratch a short-theory itch of my own).

     

    Ouch, User, just looked and the S&P is at 1073. Pretty close to your 1077 number, and about equidistant with my 1070 number. We'll see what the giant volume close brings us today...
    29 Jan 2010, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry... I was in a meeting... I stopped out of Nvax at 2.25. On the S&P lower bound, BP is still closely tracking the S&P. BP is at its lower Bollinger limit now, and that number is equivelent to an S&P of 1077. I think BP could go as low as 55. That's an S&P of 1069. If my model works, we are at or very near the lower S&P limit. The market should now reverse....

     

    So we are pretty close to the moment of truth. Either the model works, or it breaks. If it breaks, its going to be very interesting to see how it breaks.
    29 Jan 2010, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    I'm still 25% dry powder. Stayed out of CPST today - it looks enticing but I'm disciplining myself until we see if my $1070 S&P holds. The big gun talking heads are looking for $1030 - $1040 as the 10% mark.

     

    AEM is OK for me. Made some options and equities 1-day trades today and made better that a swift kick, but not much. Effective cost reduced a bit through the trades.

     

    I think expecting the correction has alleviated some of the emotional response I used to suffer. I'm looking at it all and just saying "Hmm".

     

    I with Triple in that I'm glad to see an adjustment earlier than later.

     

    User, I think you might have something with that BP. If I recall, you indicated it was a leading or coincident indicator didn't you? If it turns out to be leading some big % of the time, that'll be a handy-dandy tool.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jan 2010, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That's exactly what I am trying to accomplish HT… Basically, the model establishes a ceiling and a basement on the amount of possible up or down movements of the S&P based on Bollinger limits. Of course if some event occurs like a terrorist attack, than the market would be expected to move more, but in a relatively short period of time, the Bollinger limits would re-establish themselves.

     

    At the current time, the association between the S&P and BP is holding. When BP hit its lower Bollinger limit at 56, the S&P was just about exactly at 1077, the models predicted value. When a stock goes below its lower Bollinger, the stock is considered to be over sold, and that usually triggers buying.

     

    I noticed today that when BP hit its lower Bollinger limit that ANR, BTU, BHP, CHK and many more of the stocks I hold ALSO hit their lower Bollinger limit. All of these stocks 30 day moving average are either currently flat or they are positive. A positive or flat moving average is a very important point because it suggests the lower Bollinger limit will be stable over the next few trading days.

     

    So all these stocks with vastly different prices hit their lower Bollinger limit at S&P 1077. Coincidence?

     

    This is an important finding because it says that the reversal logic is not dependent on one stock to reverse a downward market movement. A whole bunch of different stocks are hitting the same degree of oversold condition at the same time. I should have guessed it had to work that way.

     

    The drop dead lower bound for BP is $55. That means the drop dead lower boundary for the S&P is 1069. If it goes below that it means that all of those stocks that follow it down are below two standard deviations from their moving average. That would mean the S&P lower limit model broke, and some other force was in play that was reducing the valuation of most equities at the same time. However, I do note that the S&P exhibited a bounce today at 1072, within .5% of the higher lower limit of the model and .3% of the drop dead lower boundary. Another coincidence?

     

    What do you think the Chinese would do with all the US paper they hold, which I assume is redeemable in dollars, if the dollar continues to increase in value? I would think they would start redeeming some of it while the dollar was high….

     

    I did start looking at the association between the dollar and the S&P this morning using 2009 and January 2010 data. Preliminary results are interesting. The strength of the association varies as a function of the S&P level. The higher the S&P, the stronger the inverse association. However, I also saw a sharp discontinuity in the association between the S&P and the dollar that occurs somewhere between S&P 1000 and S&P 1050. In other words, there is a significant non-linearity present. Once the S&P drops below some critical value, the slope coefficient between the dollar and the S&P halves. I don't know what that means at this point.

     

    Monday should be interesting. If the S&P drops below 1069 it would mean there was no fail safe level for your investments and the carry trade explanation could be correct. At that point, I would probably sell a good portion of my portfolio and take shelter under a rock.
    29 Jan 2010, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    I had a feeling that BP/Boll. charting matched the S&P today. For years I have made these sorts of long-medium term estimates/predictions, but never with any sort of shortrange accuracy or knowledge. I invested accordingly, and managed to sit out the worst downturns safely, but largely silently, just doing my own thing. Its rather amazing to me to see the scientific validation from this viewpoint. I arrive at things from the "soft" side, though I of course study both the numbers and their graphic representations.

     

    If I am understanding what you are saying, User, your charts now indicate the next few days will be flat or trend upward slightly? I would consider the lows reached today as essentially fulfilling my 1070 prediction (though of course the DOW did not dip into the high 9900's as I thought might happen). I won't argue with your BP/indicator, its likely that what your numbers show are what will happen, far as I can see. In fact, speaking from the "soft" human intel/geo/political side, there are signs of new "balance" entering the equation short term. Obama's extraordinary meeting with the Republicans is a clear indication that he is learning the craft of governance, though ONLY as yet an indication. I am still cynical as to our chances, but that was a notable counter-point to my overall very pessimistic view of the next few month's domestic political/policy events.

     

    Geopolitically I see bad things happening in Europe. The updates to the Spanish budget numbers (now found to be almost as much science fiction as those of Greece) is a real blow, and a much bigger problem than the Greek cheating. As the troubled countries start "coming clean" (Italy may be next), the scope of the problem will become known. Ultimately the EU may discover that (as many cynics like me have long believed) there have ALWAYS been "cheats" taking advantage of the more successful countries, while they coasted. Just as Maddoff was exposed by an unforeseen financial meltdown, we may discover that there were MANY ponzi governments hiding their malfeasance beneath the Euro.

     

    If THIS comes to light, and the worker ants have to decide whether or not to pillage their stores of grain to feed the grasshoppers, it could blow the EU apart - and take much of what we see as the modern financial landscape with it. I STILL think this will not happen, that the ants (though angered) WILL bailout the PIIGS again, but even that bailout and the subsequent collapse of the Euro will have a strong effect on world trade.

     

    China has been looking for a good face-saving method of slightly but methodically raising the value of the yuan. This was difficult to do witht he dollar dropping, essentially driving DOWN the value of their currency, but with dollar strength they can now make small, token increases with little loss of face. The Chinese are still BUYING Treasuries (it is thought that the extra $100billion sold to "private foreing nationals" last week may have been sub-rosa purchases by the Chinese treasury). More purchases like this are to be expected, though sales may also follow from the $800billion hoard China has accumulated. It would be illogical for them to unwind this position TOO fast, given their understandable aversion to giving valuable things away. Selling at a loss will not enter into their plans. If they WERE going to start selling large amounts under the cover of the surging dollar, there are few signs that this is happening yet, and imo would be counter to their own interests.
    29 Jan 2010, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi TB... The model mostly suggests there is very little room for the markets to continue downward. I do expect the markets to rebound a bit on Monday.

     

    The model is only predictive to that point because I had no causal mechanism, just a statistically based lower bound model.

     

    However, the dollar valuation suggestion could provide a causal mechanism. I already suspect dollar valuation has a significant association with the upper Bollinger band value.

     

    Something happened to dollar valuation, as measured by (UUP), between July and August of 2009. I need to know what that was. Any ideas?
    30 Jan 2010, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Not sure, I don't follow (UUP), but looking at the chart, it looks like it went up steeply starting June 1 for a few weeks, then started tailing downward, and continued throughout July into August. Aug 1 it went up for a week or so, then resumed its downward trend.

     

    I would have to look back over the history of that period, but the v-shaped shifts in direction occuring on the first of the month with such regularity is striking. As I said earlier, I have always used general trends (such as the major currency moves) in plotting my market timing, but I have only been accurate to within several weeks or a month at best.

     

    We are at another potential V point with February 1st. If the dollar behaves as it did April 1st and Aug 1st, we may see a steep increase to above 24 on the UUB over a 5-10 day period. What might be causing this puzzles me, though.
    30 Jan 2010, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5742) | Send Message
     
    Concerning the USD during early August 2009, there are some speculations that may help at the following link:

     

    www.mataf.net/t/euro-z...
    30 Jan 2010, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • KEITH THE GREEK
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    IS NVAX GOING TO CONTINUE THE PLUNGE? I AM DEEP INTO THE STOCK AND VERY WORRIED. SHOULD OF SOLD 5 DAYS AGO AND CUT MY LOSSES. HAD NO IDEA IT WOULD FALL LIKE THIS. HAS MUCH LONGER CAN THE SLIDE CONTINUE? NEVER SEEN THIS BEFORE AND I HAVE CONCERNS THAT SOMETHING IS WRONG , NO BAD OR GOOD NEWS BUT STOCK DROPS EVERY DAY HEEEEELP!!!!
    31 Jan 2010, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • KEITH THE GREEK
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    DECIDED TO JUST KEEP NVAX LONG TERM AND HOPE. MIGHT GO BACK TO .52 CENTS!.. OH WELL.!! HOPEFULLY SOMEDAY IT WILL HIT 7-10 DOLLARS PER SHARE BUT RIGHT NOW THIS STOCK IS ON ITS WAY DOWN.BACK TO THE GYM AND FORGET ABOUT THIS STOCK AS NOBODY SEEMS TO KNOW WHY ITS DROPPING EXCEPT INSIDE INFO AND THAT SEEMS UNFAIR. SHOULD OF PUT A STOP LIMIT WHILE BACK BUT KEPT THINKING IT WOULD GO UP. REAL FRUSTRATING AND LOTS OF SLEEPLESS NIGHTS . WISH SOMEONE WOULD GIVE ME GOOD NEWS.GOOD NIGHT ! I
    31 Jan 2010, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2674) | Send Message
     
    Keith, there is no easy way for me to say this but using Capital letters is considered to be Yelling.

     

    Flu season isn't very far away in Mexico. Stay the course and do not panic. But always remember, that if a position you have taken keeps you awake at night, the what is better, keeping the shares or risking a heart attack?

     

    I'm not positive but I think Options are available on NVAX, buy puts, write calls, a variation.
    31 Jan 2010, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Keith, if you read back over this and the other Swine Flu instablogs, you will have access to all the thinking and research we have accumulated. Note that NVAX continues to work on their products, and that news from Mexico and India may influence the stock price (but of course bad news would create a bad result in the price). Flu season next year might see a renaissance in these stocks, or it might not.

     

    Also, if you write you posts in all-caps, this is considered "yelling" on the internet.
    31 Jan 2010, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mark, that was quite helpful. Thank you.
    31 Jan 2010, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Keith... the next support level for NVAX is just below 2. If it breaks through that its at 1.50.

     

    There is likely to be positive news concerning the companies H1N1 vaccine clinical trials in the near future. Unfortunately, the timing of those results are not good with respect to the seasonal H1N1 time line and the associated manufacturing cycle. However, positive results might make it easier for NVAX to obtain operating capital.

     

    Operating capital is a significant issue for a start-up company. NVAX is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. That means for the most part, the company is still in its R&D development phase. Their earnings per share are negative, and they have a high Beta which implies there is a good deal of risk associated with this investment.

     

    In addition, the stock has a considerable degree of short sales. The percent short sales increased sharply after the last NVAX shelf offering. If you look in the following link, you will see the ramifications of the degree of short sales and NVAX's shelf offering on NVAX's stock price. As you will see, we have a pretty good understanding of why NVAX's stock price dropped.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    I suggest you read through the back issues of the Swine Flu News Concentrators. There you will find a great deal of information about NVAX, and other stocks related to the development and sale of swine flu vaccines. You can access past issues of the Swine Flu News Concentrators at the following link:

     

    seekingalpha.com/user/...

     

    I wish you luck in your investments.
    31 Jan 2010, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • KEITH THE GREEK
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to all who respondsd. Still baffles me why this stock keeps dropping. thanks again and good luck to all Keith
    31 Jan 2010, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • KEITH THE GREEK
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    By chance does anyone know when NVAX will post results from Mexico?
    31 Jan 2010, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • KEITH THE GREEK
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    User213977 Thanks for the info which was posted weeks ago on the V. P. of technical operations gone. I talked to Tricia- media relations and all she did was assure the Dr. who took over is capable.I am like you and don't think that could be a good sign. I am just trying to get as much info as possible but sometimes I wish I was a fly because they already know how the trials in Mexico went. I think how nvax stock does for a while depends on these results, Just like H.T. thanks for the input
    1 Feb 2010, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • KEITH THE GREEK
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    How much more are they going to short NVAX.? Seems every day the stock goes down with no good or bad news.
    3 Feb 2010, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi Keith - Unfortunately, no… the results were expected at the end of January to early February. We noted in the previous Swine Flu News Concentrator that the company lost its VP of technical operations in Mid-January. That raised concerns about the status of those clinical trials because it seemed that the supervision of clinical trials would likely fall under the jurisdiction of the VP of technical operations.
    1 Feb 2010, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • KEITH THE GREEK
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    lo

     

    Losing the V. P. of technical operations for nvax is not good . my bad for not doing my homework.maybe just take all the green and put it on theSaints plus 6
    1 Feb 2010, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Kieth,

     

    Based on what you will find in the various Swine Flu Concentrators, you'll see that we did not expect the next report until late January. Apparently that was a tad optimistic. But as another suggested, sell call options that you are comfortable with. I did that early on and made a little income while sitting on the stock. But that was back when I could get ~$0.50 premium for a $6 Jan call. I don't know your cost basis, so I don't know if there is a strike price and premium you would like.

     

    FYI: Thomson Reuters still has it rated outperform based on Technical Factors and Value Catch-up as of 1/28. As with many small-cap bio-techs, its Fundamental Quality is "Under". It's Operational Trends are "Neutral".

     

    Any stock like this is either a short-term trade or a long-term investment. Treat it as one or the other, but don't switch around.

     

    Regarding the short interest User mentioned, keep in mind that days to cover has been going up, due to lower trade volume, even though short interest has dropped a bit, although still very high. *If* good news hits, there could be a decent price spike up as the shorts try to cover. So if you decide to sell calls, factor this in to the strike price and time frame you select.

     

    I've also done some short-term trades around my core position on it to make a little more $, but this is not an easy thing to get right because of the volatility. I would not recommend that unless you have a high degree of confidence in your ability to read the charts and factor in all we know and learn daily. If you decide to do that be *very aware* of risk management concerns, since you are already nervous about your position.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2010, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • KEITH THE GREEK
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Talked to Nvax media relations.They of course cannot give exact time for press release on results from Mexico but after talking for an hour it could be around feb8.Thanks to all for advice. i said I would go long term but i need to learn patience. Sorry! Just wish that darn stock would go up,
    1 Feb 2010, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    The telcon and what you report should hearten all us that believe the co. is a long-term winner. The time-frame you mention w fits nicely with my hope, not my guess.

     

    Thank you for that effort and the heads up!

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2010, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • KEITH THE GREEK
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    H.T. , In your opinion would it be wise at this point to exercise sell call options, puts. would just like your input . thanks
    1 Feb 2010, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    I'm really the wrong person to ask because I'm biased to taking premiums in, not paying them out. Puts offer downside protection while calls bring in cash. If the stock goes down, you profit on calls (as long as you can stand the loss on the underlying stock) effectively reducing your cost basis.

     

    Puts let you get out if you just have to throw up your hands and exit the position.

     

    Time decay benefits you on short calls, hurts you on long puts.

     

    NVAX is hitting resistance today. If it breaks above that strongly (not likely yet, I think) that's when I would be looking to sell calls. With such low volume of trading it can surprise us quickly, especially if the shorts think "Uh-oh".

     

    If I'm looking to sell calls, I try and catch it near the top of an up move. Be aware that if the stock keeps going up, you can't unload your stock until you close out the calls that you sold. If the time-decay is insufficient at that time, you'll likely pay more for them that you brought in. But you still might have a net profit. I've done this a couple times when I misjudged things and still had a small profit.

     

    If you guess wrong on the magnitude of the up move and sell calls too early, you may be locked in. If the strike is at a decent profit (when combined with the premiums you garnered) that may be OK.

     

    There are several options strategies that one can use but I'm not qualified to advise. The Options Industry Council has lots of educational stuff, but I wouldn't use those strategies without prior experience and lots of small leaning trades first.

     

    I hope this helps.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2010, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • KEITH THE GREEK
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Thanks H.T. I thought trading stocks was easy but it is very humbling. I started last March when every stock was near rock bottom. I hit with A.I.G Citigroup,GGC. jmba,and Dusa Since October I am finding out its not that easy and have taken hits on stocks that are still down.Before I just hoped the stock would go up but i know now to have puts, calls.Nvax will probably go back up someday but believe me your input and others are valued.I apologize for being a little naive'as I am still new to the stock game.The good thing is I still am ahead but i feel like I should be way ahead.Have sold stocks way to quick and have kept some to long. Thanks again Sincerely Keith
    1 Feb 2010, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Don't feel badly - check my profile. I got in when the market was high and rode it all the way down. We are all students here - it's only a matter of degree.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2010, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • KEITH THE GREEK
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Hard To love
    1 Feb 2010, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5742) | Send Message
     
    I've ridden up and down so many times I don't even want to think about it. You'd think we'd all learn and become great experts. Every time I realize that the best thing for me (not for everyone) is to identify a stock because it has good fundamentals and future prospects (like an unassailable competitive advantage), then look at the charts and trends to determine a good entry point, stay patient, buy when the price finds support on a good down day (I try never to buy on up days because if feels like I'm chasing and because I've been sucked in just before the fall a few times), then determine a price/profit I could be happy with in the short term and sell calls against about 75% of my position, collect the premium, and repeat the sale of calls over and over again (reducing my basis to zero over time) as long as the fundamentals remain positive and the macro picture is supportive of future growth. I then sell only when the macro picture turns bad, the stock price gets too far ahead of earnings (in which case the options will most likely be exercised), or the fundamentals of the company begin to deteriorate. When the macro picture disintegrates I go into turtle mode. That is where, for the most part, I have been for the last four months with only a few exceptions.

     

    It sounds as though much of my strategy is similar to that of HTL, except that I suspect he may get in and out more frequently than I do and trade smaller cap stocks more than I do. I say that because many smalls that I would like to trade for long term do not have options available on them.

     

    Just thought I'd throw in my two cents. My way takes a lot of patience and conviction. And, as I pointed out in my first sentence, it's not for everyone. But the older I get, the more conservative I get, too.
    3 Feb 2010, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Mark,

     

    We do indeed use similar strategies. I stuck with large cap for a while. Once I encountered Freya and O.G and ... I realized that small-caps also offered some opportunities along with the risk. The only really aggravating thing about them for me is the unavailability of the options, which prevents me reducing risk and/or scraping a little premium while I wait (for ones I want to hold on to).

     

    The reason I move in and out faster than you is it's my version of "turtle mode". I'm, for the most part, worried about the next big leg down, as are others, but can't stand to stand on the sidelines and watch. So the shorter-term in and out is part of my risk management.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Feb 2010, 05:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    VICL: ... will report financial results for the three months and twelve months ended December 31, 2009, before the opening of trading on Thursday, February 11, and conduct a conference call and webcast to discuss the financial results and provide a company update at noon Eastern Time on Thursday, February 11. The call is open on a listen-only basis to any interested parties. The company will provide details on independent and partnered development programs in the conference call and webcast.

     

    Conference Call

     

    To listen to the conference call, dial in approximately ten minutes before the scheduled call to (877) 879-6203, or (719) 325-4823 for international participants, and reference confirmation code 4635156. A replay of the call will be available for 48 hours beginning about two hours after the call. To listen to the replay, dial (888) 203-1112, or (719) 457-0820 for international participants, and enter replay passcode 4635156. The call also will be available live and archived through the events page at www.vical.com.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Feb 2010, 06:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: The key point is "upcoming milestones" that will be touched on

     

    Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and Chief Executive Officer of Novavax will be presenting at the 12th Annual BIO CEO & Investor Conference on February 8th, 2010 at 10:00 am local time. Hosted by the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO), the 12th Annual BIO CEO & Investor Conference will take place February 8-9 at the Waldorf Astoria, New York. Dr. Singhvi will provide an overview of the company's business strategy, research and development progress and upcoming milestones. A link to the live audio only presentation can be accessed via the Company website at novavax.com under the Investors tab. An archive of the presentation will be available one hour after the event on the Novavax website for 90 days.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Feb 2010, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks HT... that's the same date that Keith came up with after arm twisting NVAX investor relations last week.. good job Keith.
    5 Feb 2010, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • KEITH THE GREEK
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    H.T. So possibly Monday the shorts will buy and raise the price? The CEO speaking can he give the info on how things are in Mexico or do we have to wait for a press release? Bought more nvax shares at 2.04 and will try to be smarter this time. Media lady is mad at me so I will back off. THanks user 283977 as I bought shares this morning because of your comments.Missed the boat on a stock given to me TSHO at.78 cents . Did not buy because it was already at an all time high. Three days later it is at 1.25 with no resistance.It could really take off. Good luck to all
    5 Feb 2010, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    I don't know about the shorts. But if they haven't finished closing their shorts (unlikely with the quantity shorted and the very low trade volume - need about 7 days to cover them all if they bought all offered at recent volumes). Some may be getting out now because they are spooked by the conference, some may get out for other reasons (believe the stock has bottomed and see no more profit while interest charges keep accruing against borrowed share costs) and some may not be getting out yet.

     

    When the new report comes out 2/15, we'll be able to see what they did in the last two weeks of January. Two weeks later we'll be able to see what they did the first two weeks in February.

     

    I really dislike the long delay - with computers everywhere, I feel the delay is an intentional disadvantaging of the small retail investor to the benefit of larger players.

     

    As to the conference, again I don't know. I expect they will, at a minimum, list nearby milestones that are coming. If they leak results already known for those, I'll be surprised.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Feb 2010, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • KEITH THE GREEK
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    WOW !!!!!!!! This is bad
    8 Feb 2010, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: good action and volume today. Day started normally with a look to try and go down. piddled around until 13:53. From that point on, straight up with no retracement. Volumes were substantial during that period. I believe the shorts are now nervous and covering in earnest.

     

    If it breaks through $2.30 tomorrow, I believe a short run up may be seen.

     

    I'm not advocating buying more, but just offering a little "light at the end of the tunnel" and it's not (apparently) an on-coming freight train.

     

    Let's keep our fingers crossed here.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Feb 2010, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good summary HT. I would only add that if the size of the pop is substantive, the company might decide to take advantage of that and make another shelf offering in close proximity to the positive news. This was the strategy that SVA used. It basically accelerates a companies potential growth rate, but if its repeated too often, it runs the risk of poisoning the well for investors and attracting the shorts.
    6 Feb 2010, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    I stopped out of NVAX at 2.24 last week, but I might be buying Monday early.

     

    Some pharma stocks I am tracking:

     

    (CVM) is sitting at .64, having dropped slowly from .80 not long ago. I am now just waiting to see what happens next on this one. News to lift its fortunes are likely over the next 2 weeks.

     

    (THRX) has dropped close to my target, and is trading now at 9.83.

     

    (TTNP) is near my target, but still a bit pricey given the environment, same comments for (BCRX).

     

    (HALO) is down, but still 10% above my target.

     

    (DUSA) is hovering just above my target. Attractive, given the right news.

     

    (VICL) is now just under my target, and I may add some of this Monday.
    5 Feb 2010, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CVM is going to be interesting... its show and tell time... if this hits, its going to be huge.
    6 Feb 2010, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    I agree. If CVM heads up I am giving it another try.
    6 Feb 2010, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (February 5, 2010) Is the US swine flu epidemic over?
    By MIKE STOBBE - AP Medical Writer

     

    If the U.S. swine flu epidemic isn't over, it certainly looks as if it's on its last legs. While federal health officials are not ready to declare the threat has passed and the outbreak has run its course, they did report Friday that for the fourth week in a row, no states had widespread flu activity. U.S. cases have been declining since late October.

     

    One U.S. expert said the epidemic has "one foot in the grave," and there are many reasons to believe there won't be another wave later in the year. For one thing, the virus has shown no signs of mutating. The vaccine against it is effective. And roughly half the people in the U.S. probably have some immunity because they were infected with it or got vaccinated.

     

    Since its emergence last April, swine flu has caused an estimated 15,200 deaths worldwide, mostly in the U.S. - a much lower number than initially feared. The positive outcome is primarily because the virus didn't mutate into a deadlier form. Whether it will stay quiet for the rest of the winter is hard to say, but some experts are beginning to lean that way.

     

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released numbers Friday showing most states continued to have only occasional flu activity last week. However, only three states had absolutely no reports, and a CDC official cautioned that swine flu is still around and is likely to keep infecting people for weeks or months to come.

     

    "We don't seem to be seeing the disappearance of this virus," said the official, Dr. Anne Schuchat. Whether there will be another wave of swine flu - as was seen in the spring last year and again in the early fall - is a much harder question, she added.

     

    Her comments reflect a raging debate among scientists. One expert told The Associated Press he thinks a spike in H1N1 cases is likely by May, though perhaps a smaller one than last fall. Another said he did not expect another spike. A third predicted another wave, but not until next fall at the earliest. A fourth refused to even guess.
    www.newsobserver.com/n...
    6 Feb 2010, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2674) | Send Message
     
    The thing with NVAX isn't just the Swine Flu, its also a rapid response platform for things coming down the pike. The Combo vaccine has been my reason for staying with it.

     

    It has been and remains insurance just like Gold.

     

    In my case, hubby has included diamonds. 3 months, 3 tidbits for mua.

     

    A ring, a pendant (black coral inlay) and now 18k gold earings with diamonds, all told about 4 carats worth.

     

    Diamonds are a girl's best friend.

     

    Push comes to shove, I can leave the country wearing them.
    6 Feb 2010, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Stuck in a cab, presentation will be running late. Probably another 10 minutes before it starts? ~ 10:25-10:35 EST?

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2010, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: 10:14 EST - Presentation re-scheduled to 13:30 P.M. EST.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2010, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Presentation rescheduled to 13:30 EST, but this news release just hit. NVAX recovered to $2.20 at 12:21 after having been as low as $1.92 earlier in the day

     

    ... new data from a clinical study that began in May of 2009 among healthy adults 18 to 49 years of age with Novavax's trivalent seasonal influenza Virus-like Particle (VLP) vaccine. The vaccine matched the influenza strains recommended for the 2008-2009 influenza season including H1N1 A/Brisbane/59/2007, H3N2 A/Brisbane/10/2007, and B/Florida/04/2006 strains. The study enrolled 241 subjects, including 221 who were randomized to receive either VLP vaccine at 15 mcg or 60 mcg doses or a placebo and 20 subjects who received a licensed inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV).

     

    Novavax reported safety and hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) antibody titers from this study in a poster presentation at the 47th Annual Meeting of the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA). In addition to the HAI titers, functional antibody against the Neuraminidase enzyme was measured in the sera of immunized subjects using a neuraminidase inhibition assay (NAI) developed by Novavax scientists. Inhibition of neuraminidase activity may be important in reducing the spread of influenza virus down the respiratory tract and severe influenza disease. Since neuraminidase mutates less rapidly than hemagglutinin(HA), the antibody against neuraminidase may be more effective in protecting against drifted seasonal strains or new, emerging strains of influenza virus.

     

    In continued evaluation of the May 2009 clinical study, Novavax tested
    volunteers for NAI against H3N2/Brisbane and B/Florida components of the vaccine before and after immunization. The results showed that 50 to 73% of the volunteers immunized with the Novavax VLP vaccine had a 4-fold increase in the antibody that blocks neuraminidase activity. In contrast, only 1 of 19 volunteers that received the TIV showed a 4-fold rise for NAI. There was no 4-fold rise in volunteers that received placebo.

     

    "These are very exciting results which not only support continued development of novel VLP vaccines against influenza but also provides a cornerstone to potentially differentiate our vaccine from the current standard of care," said Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and Chief Executive Officer of Novavax. "We will continue to evaluate NAI responses in additional clinical trials particularly in the ongoing study in the elderly and work to optimize the NA activity required in our vaccine to maximize NAI responses. We believe these new data reinforce our long standing thesis that VLP influenza vaccines have the potential to induce broad immunity that could lead to meaningful reduction in the burden of disease," said Dr. Singhvi.

     

    Dr Singhvi presented these new data today in New York city at the BIO CEO Conference. Further details can be found on the corporate website at www.novavax.com.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2010, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: The slides with the presentation heartened me. As a long-term, I'm ok with (NVAX).

     

    Near the end, a slide showed $55M COH and the presentation mentioned the recent raise provided another $55M - total $110MM COH.

     

    Burn rate of $30MM (I think that's what it was) and substantial activities will occur 1st/2nd quarter '10 that will position them well for future cycles.

     

    I'm thinking now new issuance for quite some time?

     

    Thoughts?

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2010, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    NVAX now at $2.10. No bounce from the news. Tracking continues. Tough market for this sort of stock right now.
    8 Feb 2010, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Uh oh….
    (February 05, 2010) US Wave 3 Start Confirmed By H1N1 Increases in Region 4

     

    Region 4: AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN;
    The latest CDC report shows an overall rise (from 8.9% to 13%) in samples positive for H1N1 in Region 4 in the week 4 report, providing additional evidence for the start of wave 3 in the United States. Earlier media reports had described increases in various states in region 4. Le Boehner children’s hospital in Memphis had seen an increase in hospitalized patients and a high frequency were being admitted to the ICU, where at least 2 of the 7 died. One was from MS while then other was from TN. University of North Carolina hospital also reported an increase in confirmed H1N1 in college students, and the North Carolina website showed an increase in samples testing positive for H1N1 to 25%, the highest level since mid-November when wave 2 was declining.

     

    These sharp increases in region 4 raise concerns that these cases will spread. Region 4 led the nation at the beginning of the fall wave, which largely followed school openings. Many of the schools in region 4 opened in August. The rise in positive patients in region 4 raises concerns that wave 3 will be more severe, with an associated increase in deaths.
    www.recombinomics.com/...
    8 Feb 2010, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10769) | Send Message
     
    Ut oh is right, User. Wave three coming.
    8 Feb 2010, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    About 3 weeks ago(?) news about a NASCAR tire changer dying from it. I thought it was just an isolated case. Guess not.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2010, 05:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    I have an emotional reaction to this topic, so my opinions as to this particular investment are probably not very objective. I will continue observing NVAX today. If their price goes down or sideways, fine, I will keep watch. If it goes up, I may buy. Same with CVM and several other pharmas I listed earlier.
    9 Feb 2010, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    The early chart indicators, stochastic and MFI, say it wants to go up, but none of the others, including volume, support that yet. There was early trad of 600 shares at $2.41 and $2.42, but not down to $2.02 and $2.09. All small volume, as expected pre-market.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2010, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    *now* down to $2.02. <*sheesh*>

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2010, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Sideways with CVM, down with NVAX - on an otherwise strongly up day.

     

    I will continue to watch. Obamacare is still lurking, now resurrected, as is the nuclear option (reconciliation is being "normalized" by the Regime's toadies in the MSM).

     

    It will NOT die.

     

    I have also been watching (HUM) as a potential buy should ObamaCare NOT involve the idiotic notion of government participating in a "market" it also regulates. So long as there is any chance of Obamacare including an overt or covert "public option", though, the insurance area is taboo.

     

    With the public option in the cards, I watch the insurers twist in the wind, and jump over and buy hospital chains (but ones with NO involvement with insurers or hmo's).
    9 Feb 2010, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    www.thestreet.com/_yah...

     

    (CVM) bad news, secret partner deal in South Africa falls apart.

     

    Stock is at .59 and dropping.

     

    Somebody screwed up.

     

    (NVAX) at 2.02, trending down. Shuffling some chairs in the exec. suite...

     

    Usually NOT good news.
    10 Feb 2010, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2674) | Send Message
     
    It can be good news.

     

    TGB got rid of its President because he did not hedge any production whatsoever. The stock has been rocking ever since and TGB has locked in some good prices for forward production.

     

    I would guess Deals have been wasted because His highness felt NVAX had the Upper hand.
    10 Feb 2010, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Usually when a company's stock tanks and they fire their QC and Technical head, its a sign that things are not going well in those areas. Given that those items would have been under the guidance of Mr. Robinson, its a fairly safe guess that they were unhappy with something involving their various products, trials or (more worrisome) with the quality control of the drugs being manufactured and administered. There is no clear announcement of this, of course, so all we have is the inference. Failures in the QC area are NEVER good news where vaccines and drugs are concerned.

     

    Hopefully this will result in their acquiring a superior replacement, a person who will correct whatever failings there are and who will protect the company from any scary events in the future.

     

    The paucity of the severance would indicate that he might have been released for cause.
    10 Feb 2010, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That CVM Byron deal was questioned some time ago because the company had no business address. I tried to look them up today, and found no key executives recorded, and they have no website..

     

    Byron got a deal to exercise 7.5 million warrants at .25 per share after September 8th, 2009, just as the stock was increasing in valuation to around $2 per share. Byron is supposed to be making a licence payment due soon, but now their name has disappeared from CVM's partners list. Of course, they must have exercised those warrants at .25 and than sold the stock probably for close to $2.00 per share. At best, it appears that CVM is using some rather creative financing methods.
    10 Feb 2010, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5742) | Send Message
     
    It makes one wonder if the executives at CVM had any interest/ownership in Byron. Could they be that low? Who has been their lead underwriter in past offerings? Is the underwriter squeaky clean?

     

    User - You should be familiar with the squeaky side of things. (Sorry, I just couldn't help myself).
    10 Feb 2010, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL Mark! Your thoughts are mirroring mine... My nose is a twitching...
    Interestingly, the March 6 deal with Byron does not mention any underwriter... the deal was described as a licensing agreement... I don't see any mention of new securities... Here is the link to the 8k:

     

    biz.yahoo.com/e/090312...
    10 Feb 2010, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    I remember the controversey when they initially did that deal. We tried to find out what it was about at the time (I believe that was just before I dumped all the stock anyway, about the time I found out about their shady financing deal with their founder (lined his pockets) during the March Madness.

     

    If they are out this stock for just .25 its plenty of reason for their stock price (such as it is) to drop.

     

    I'll see what I can find out.
    10 Feb 2010, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    I know User is not in NVAX now, but for any others ...

     

    Monday NVAX *almost* made a Harami Cross (also called a "doji"), indicating a possible trend reversal, to be confirmed in the following couple of days. I think it is confirmed by improvement in the RSI and MFI and a stochastic moving up and diverging to more positive over the last two days.

     

    This is *possibly* more likely if I properly interpreted today's action as incorporating some short covering again. Considering this happened when the market was generally flat-to-down, it seems quite likely as NVAX was fighting the tape.

     

    Recall that due to reduced daily volume the days to cover is over 7 days even though the number of reported shorts last period was reduced a small %.

     

    We might see NVAX challenge the $2.30 resistance in the next couple of days. If you're cost is substantially below this, you might want to consider some trailing stops, after another run up, if you're not in for the long-term. I think that $2.30 *may* offer significant resistance, depending on how many, how desperate, the shorts.

     

    For me, if it breaks $2.30, I'm going to be looking for a good price to write some more calls. This would be at what I think is the near top of a current run and getting close to an inflection point to get pushed down again.

     

    It's all by "gut feel" for the most part - the charts are still tenuous as to a longer-term trend. As usual, recall that I'm relatively new, tend to move early and disavow all knowledge of this tape, which will self-destruct in 5 seconds. (Queue the theme maestro!).

     

    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2010, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Very nice HT.... If Nvax is starting an upward trend, the volume should increase… that should reduce the short covering period…
    Could a Harami Cross be a precursor to the start of a short squeeze?

     

    I noticed a lot of buying starting at 2pm today, yet there was no news… I wonder about those Mexico trials…
    10 Feb 2010, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    I think it looks similar to the run we saw before that I thought was short covering. No news, sudden run straight up with no retrace, slightly higher volume (today's was 1.78MM, ~ double the volume of many of the days we've been seeing lately, overall).

     

    As to the short covering period, on a percentage basis it would be an insignificant amount (IIRC, we were still ~12MM or ~11MM short?) and would only have noticeable effect over an extended period - oh, maybe a week or so?

     

    As to the cross being a precursor, it does not indicate why, just what. Change in sentiment occurring when the bulls and bears are battling for control, day traders closing positions at the same price as the open or ...?. By itself, it does not assure a change in direction - it just shows a battle (apparently) going on where a direction is undetermined. It is significant only within an established trend, either direction, and must be confirmed by action the following day or two.

     

    When the prior day is a down day in a down trend, it indicates that a change *may* be coming. Ditto at the top. It's an indicator of indecisive action at that time.

     

    When it is combined with other indicators, it *could* be interpreted as a change before being confirmed by action on following sessions, but this would be unconventional use and probably is only done by folks that are overly aggressive and less risk-averse, ... like me?

     

    A shorter could interpret this as a flag that covering should start because an inflection point may be at hand wherein the price is going to run up. Since MFI, RSI and stochastic were flipping up at the same time, if I were a shorter I would seriously consider covering some stuff. Doing it on a market flat/down day would seem one viable strategy.

     

    In that context, I would *guess* that it didn't signal covering start, but *possibly* was a *cause* of it, in combination with other factors.

     

    Keep in mind there's a lot of supposition in my reply.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2010, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    VICL: results and commentary reported this A.M.

     

    ir.vical.com/releasede...

     

    Revenues and losses improve over 50%, 2010 cash burn predicted $20-$24 million "including anticipated receipts from new or expanded partnerships not currently contracted" (emphasis mine). Also recounts various projects status.

     

    Conference call 12:00 EST today, available through company web site.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Feb 2010, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX; Bumping $2.30 13:00 EST. Significant sell imbalance at that level. If it breaks above that, might be another run up like yesterday as shorts do a little scrambling?

     

    HardToLove
    11 Feb 2010, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    I've decided to hold off on NVAX another day.

     

    (CVM) got hammered by their enemy at TheStreet.com, much of it rather wierd logic. Its dropped the stock down to .53, though, so I continue to watch. Oddly enough the hit pieces (and the lower price) have made it MORE attractive to me rather than less. The wounds are still fresh, so I am letting them sit for a day or two, but its getting interesting...

     

    (VICL) has just shot up to $3.00, happy days, its the only phara I own right now.
    11 Feb 2010, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Ok. I did my part & helped clean out resistance @ $2.31. Imbalance has now started to swing to the buy side. Looking like it might hold. If so, we should be able to see a run up a bit = st least $2.36? But it hasn't started a groundswell or anything like that yet.

     

    14:01 EST

     

    HardToLove
    11 Feb 2010, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    NVAX: Missed by a penny, high was $2.35. But we may see something here we haven't had in a while - a trend up.

     

    I'm not positive but it looks like the shorts (if there were any really active today) did their thing prior to 10:30 this A.M. From that point onward, it was a steady push up, with normal up/down 1-2 penny moves with no unreasonable volume changes.

     

    More, the technicals seem to support a trend up beginning. RSI now at 46.71 and trending up, after being down for so long near oversold until about 3 days ago. MFI 42.63 and trending up, also having dipped to oversold about 6 days ago and climbing back up since. MACD still slight negative (-.17) and hasn't diverged up yet, but it should respond to recent change in a couple days. Even accum/distr (-112.3) has started to rotate up a tad. Bollingers are at 2.377/1.979 and both rotating up. Stochastic %K is 68.9% and diverging sharply up from %D (44.8%)the last 5 days.

     

    Current closing price ($2.33) is near upper Bollinger, but has room to push up without violating that resistance right away.

     

    The most heartening of all this is the daily volume while having this little move up. Last 3 days: 1.08MM, 1.86MM, 1.93MM.

     

    So we have certain early indicators trending up, price up two days and today showing steady increase from 10:30 A.M. onward and increasing volume over several days. Seems to be retail investors entering.

     

    CAVEAT: it's been a *long* time since NVAX was able to make 3 days in a row up. The recent news out of the conference of upcoming milestones to be met in Q1/Q2 doesn't seem enough by itself, to me, to cause a raging bull run. It could have instilled some cautious optimism, when combined with price recovery from the $1.9x range, and that may be what we are seeing.

     

    All that considered, with the maximum downside seeming to be in the high $1.9x range, I added a little to trade @ $2.31 today. I'll have some fairly tight stops in place (set each morning after ~10:00-10:30 so the day traders, if any, and shorts, if any can do their thing without stopping me out too early).

     

    This is a trade for a few pennies more cost-basis reduction. That way I can continue to hold and hopefully see a good price point for a short call entry to make some premium again. If it ends being more than a few pennies gain, I'll be OK with that too! :-))

     

    As usual, be careful - I'm new and all that.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Feb 2010, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    P.S. Above resistance that was ~$2.30 and just shy of 20 day SMA $2.337. which was trending downward.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Feb 2010, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10769) | Send Message
     
    Hard: Congrats on Novavax. You too, OG, if your still holding.

     

    Gang: Below is an e-spam link to a new kind of DNA vaccine. Of course, the spam claims that if you get in now, you'll make 100,000% on your money. Heck, I'll throw a Benjamin at that chance. Kidding aside, I'm wondering what biotech stock this could be.

     

    Reason why I'm interested is because Bill Gates has stated he's throwing $10B into vaccines, especially for children in third tier countries.

     

    Any ideas?

     

    mail.live.com/?rru=inbox
    11 Feb 2010, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Maya: I read something online recently that might fit that bill... Let me see if I can track back to that link, it started here on SA, but jumped to a guy's blog... Back later.
    11 Feb 2010, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    (KERX) Keyrx Biopharmaceuticals. Experimental anti-cancer drug called KRX-0401. Involves blocking a process called "programmed cell death". I was doing some searches on that topic and ran across this company. $2.51/share right now. I have spent no time researching it, but it stuck in my head (I had started a blank sheet in my journal under "programmed cell death" but got distracted).

     

    I have an index card around here with some other scribbles, I will see if they go anywhere.
    11 Feb 2010, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    (IMUC.OB) Immunocellular Ther. is another company I ran across in the same search. They are working on a dendritic vaccine for cancer. $.92/share.
    11 Feb 2010, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10769) | Send Message
     
    I stumbled upon this website for DNA vaccine research. Seems clunky but a good one to have in the quiver:

     

    dnavaccine.com/
    11 Feb 2010, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5742) | Send Message
     
    I suppose you need to get vacinated against cancer while you're still young. Or do they do boosters every few years? How else could it work?
    11 Feb 2010, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Backed up 2/12/2010.

     

    Please go to Current Swine Flu News Concentrator

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    12 Feb 2010, 11:05 AM Reply Like
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