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  • Swine Flu AND Medical News Concentrator June 13, 2012 To October 13, 2012. 199 comments
    Oct 13, 2012 2:30 PM

    Explanation:

    I will post Swine-Flu and related medical articles under this heading. The top of the instablog will contain my current months key links preceded with a one or two liner that explains the link. A more complete summary of the link will be in the comments area. At the bottom of the Instablog we have definition of terms, a summary of Swine Flu / vaccine investment plays, the 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map, Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu, and Memory Alpha which contains links to previous news concentrators and authors articles on the subject.

    _____________________

    Update History:
    Added definition of Reassortment
    Added definiton of R0 (R Naught)
    Added Overview of H1N1 / Categories of Vaccine Investment Plays Added Memory Alpha
    Added Link to Google's Swine Flu Infection Map
    Added Red Cross Tips for Dealing With The Flu
    Added definition of EUA and PREP act
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into two parts for October
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into three parts for October
    Added Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 1
    Bolded References to Older Swine Flu Concentrators in Memory Alpha
    Expanded the list of stocks discussed in the tags
    Alphabetized stocks in the tags
    Updated the play by stock list
    Added a table that contains the web site addresses for the companies discussed
    Moved links over one month old to the new Memory Alpha Reference Library
    Added definitions of Clinical Trials and Protocol.
    Corrected Roche stock symbol in the web site table
    _____________________
    Last Swine Flu News Concentrator Links:

    Swine Flu News Concentrator July 30, 2011 to June 13, 2012 tinyurl.com/6nfvspe

    Swine Flu News Concentrator May 12, 2011 to July 29, 2011 tinyurl.com/3m7hcfp

    Swine Flu News Concentrator March 22, 2011 to May 12, 2011
    tinyurl.com/3hgogm4

    Swine Flu News Concentrator February 20, 2011 to March 22, 2011
    tinyurl.com/4unv2hy

    Swine Flu News Concentrator January 28, 2011 to February 20, 2011
    tinyurl.com/4u9nlrz

    Swine Flu News Concentrator January 11, 2011 to January 28, 2011
    tinyurl.com/4maxxdv

    Swine Flu News Concentrator December 18 (2010) to January 11, 2011
    tinyurl.com/4gs9xzl

    Swine Flu News Concentrator November 11 (2010) to December 18, 2010
    tinyurl.com/22pykd8

    Swine Flu News Concentrator September 23 to November 11 (2010)
    tinyurl.com/29eflnpJ

    Swine Flu News Concentrator June 14 to September 23 (2010)
    http://tinyurl.com/294bzc6

    Swine Flu News Concentrator April 8 to June 14
    tinyurl.com/25lqvfx

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (March 13 - April 8)
    tinyurl.com/y8w7mgy

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (February 12 - March 13)
    tinyurl.com/ykba7dl

    Swine Flu News Concentrator January 25 to February 12
    http://preview.tinyurl.com/yjccho4

    ___________________
    Some Definitions:

    What is Reassortment

    When two different virus strains infect the same host, they often exchange genes, a process known as reassortment.

    A significant number of experts are concerned that as H5N1 (Avian Flu) spreads more widely and infects more people, it will come across more hosts who are also carrying human flu viruses. This increases the likelihood of a new strain emerging that has the severity of the bird flu virus and the infection rate of the swine flu virus, leading to a new global pandemic with much deadlier consequences than the one we are experiencing at the moment.

    What is R naught (R 0)

    How many people the average infected person infects is called the basic reproductive number, or R0 (pronounced "R naught").

    Measles, which is probably mankind's most contagious infection, has an R0 of about 18. Polio's number is about 6; severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) about 5. For seasonal flu strains, the R0 is about 1.2, and for pandemic strains it is rarely higher than 2. For the novel H1N1 strain, it's about 1.6. What this low R0 means is that flu outbreaks are always teetering on the verge of having their myriad chains of transmission broken by people who get infected but don't pass the virus to anyone else.

    Swine Flu - Novel H1N1 flu, popularly known as swine flu, is a respiratory infection caused by an influenza virus first recognized in spring 2009. The new virus, which is officially called swine influenza A (H1N1), contains genetic material from human, swine and avian flu viruses. (By Mayo Clinic staff)

    Pandemic - The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people.

    A World Health Organization phase 6 pandemic indicates that influenza due to the novel H1N1 swine flu is occurring in multiple countries around the world and that human infection is widespread. The classification does not reflect the severity of individual infections.

    Cytokine Storm -
    When our body detects foreign micro-organisms indicating an infection, our body might respond by over-protecting the site of infection. The body may race so many antibodies to the infection site that they collect in what is known as a cytokine storm.

    A cytokine storm, or "Hypercytokinemia" is a potentially fatal immune reaction consisting of a positive feedback loop between cytokines and immune cells.
    www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-st...

    A positive feedback loop means that as something increases, that increase stimulates further growth.

    What makes younger people more susceptible to H1N1 is that their "vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs.

    This vulnerability in the young is reminiscent of the Spanish flu of 1918. That strain of flu also struck mostly healthy young adults.

    Pulmonary Embolism - Occurs when a blood clot forms in an arm or leg breaks free and enters the lungs where it is too large to pass through the small vessels of the lungs and forms a blockage. This stops blood from flowing into an area of the lung, and the part of the lung dies because it does not receive oxygen.
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/153796.php

    What is an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?
    An EUA may be issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow either the use of an unapproved medical product or an unapproved use of an approved medical product during certain types of emergencies with specified agents.

    What is the PREP Act?
    The PREP Act authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services ("Secretary") to issue a declaration ("PREP Act declaration") that provides immunity from tort liability (except for willfull misconduct) for claims of loss caused, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats and conditions determined by the Secretary to constitute a present, or credible risk of a future public health emergency to entities and individuals involved in the development, manufacture, testing, distribution, administration, and use of such countermeasures.

    The PREP Act also authorizes an emergency fund in the United States Treasury to provide compensation for injuries directly caused by administration or use of a countermeasure covered by the Secretary's declaration. While no funds have been appropriated for this purpose, if funds are appropriated, compensation may then be available for medical benefits, lost wages and death benefits to individuals for specified injuries.
    cdc.gov/h1n1flu/eua/qa.htm

    What are Clinical Trials:
    Clinical trials, also known as clinical studies, are research studies in which scientists and doctors test new drugs and treatments to see if they will improve health. Many of today's treatments for cancer are based on the results of past clinical trials. Because of progress made through clinical trials, many people treated for cancer are now living longer.

    Clinical trials are divided into four phases.
    Phase 1 trials: These trials are the first time a new drug or treatment is given to humans. They are normally carried out in a small number of volunteers (typically 6-20 people) who may include healthy volunteers or patients with the disease for which the product is intended as a treatment in order to find out how safe the treatment is. They also look at how a new drug should be given (by mouth, injected into muscle or the bloodstream, etc.), how often and at what dose. Phase 1 trials can also involve patients for whom standard therapies have failed and for whom no other therapies are available.

    Phase 2 trials: These trials involve larger numbers of people (typically 12 - 50). Phase 2 trials continue to look at safety of the therapy but also test how well the new drug or treatment works in patients with different disease types.

    Phase 3 trials: These are large studies (100+ people) that look at how well a new drug or treatment works in comparison to current therapies to see which treatment is better. Those taking part are usually divided into two treatment groups: standard treatment versus new treatment.

    Phase 4 trials: These trials are usually carried out after the drug or treatment has been approved by the FDA and is readily available for use in the general patient population. The purpose of Phase 4 trials is to continue to study the effects of the drug or treatment on different populations and to look for side effects associated with long-term use.
    Back to Top

    What is a Protocol:
    Clinical trials use written guidelines called protocols. The protocol explains what the trial hopes to accomplish, how the trial will be carried out, and why each part of the trial is necessary. For example, the protocol includes:

    * The reason for doing the trial
    * How many people will be in the trial
    * Who is eligible to take part in the trial
    * What study drugs participants will need to take
    * What medical tests participants will have and how often
    * What information will be gathered

    Every doctor or research center that takes part in the trial uses the same protocol. This makes sure that patients are treated identically no matter where they are receiving treatment, and that information from all the centers taking part can be combined and compared.

    Why Slow Production for Traditionally Produced (chicken eggs) Swine Flu Vaccine:
    One dose of swine flu vaccine for every two eggs, compared with two doses of
    seasonal flu vaccine per egg

    Sorry if the link does not work... it appears the Boston Globe newspaper appears to be playing games with link addresses... Just copy the link, and Google it.

    http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/10/22/quest_for_swine_flu_vaccine_giving_some_firms_a_boost/

    _____________________
    Brief Overview of Categories of H1N1/ Vaccine Investment Plays:

    I - Vaccines / Prevention
    1) Production Method / Capacity plays (NVAX) (VICL) (NVS) (INO)
    2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play (SVA - China) (NVAX - India)
    3) Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) (BAX) (BDX)
    4) Outsourced production plays
    5) Bio -Defence (MDCGF - France)
    6) Anti-Mutation / Pan-Influenza Play (CVM) (NNVC) (INO)
    7) Universal Flu Vaccine Play (INO)

    II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
    1) Dealing with severe lung infections (Fludase® (DAS181)) (CBM) (OTCQB:AEMD)
    2) ICU treatments (BCRX) (GSK) (ROG)
    III - Population Avoidance:
    1) masks/ disinfectants… Surgical masks are good enough (APT) (MMM) (CLX) (ECL) (OTCQB:PURE)

    IV - Testing do you have it? (GPRO)
    1) Test kits - (DGX)

    V - Merger / Acquisitions / Licensing (VICL) (NVAX)
    _____________________
    Sorry this is still a graphic instead of a table. I played with the table tool, but its a
    PITA to work with.

    Swine Flu Companies Discussed and Their Web Sites

    _____________________
    Swine Flu Hits Stuffed Animal World:

    2011 H1N1 US Flu Outbreak Map:
    Here is a link that gives information by US states. The Link is from DoubleGuns
    tinyurl.com/6khyjq
    ___________________

    Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu:

    IF YOU ARE ILL -
    * Stay in a room separate from common areas of the home and avoid contact with others as much as possible.

    * Stay at home for at least 24 hours after their fever is gone without using medicine to reduce the fever.

    * Get lots of rest and drink plenty of fluids.

    * Consider wearing a facemask, if available and tolerable, when sharing common spaces with household members. (ed - surgical masks ok).

    * Check with your healthcare provider about whether to take antiviral medication, or if fever persists, whether antibiotics are needed.

    WHEN CARING FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS THE FLU -
    *Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces that everyone touches.

    * Use detergent and very hot water to do dishes and wash clothes. It's okay to wash everyone's dishes and clothes together. Wash your hands after handling dirty laundry.

    * Designate only one adult as the caregiver. People at increased risk of severe illness from the flu should not be caregivers.

    * Although not mentioned by the Red Cross, the caregiver should probably ware a surgical mask as well when entering the sick room.

    * Deal with crisis situations calmly and confidently to give the best support to the person being cared for.
    _____________________

    MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season

    Click here to link to the Mayo tool:
    www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...

    _____________________
    Suggeted Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php

    After comparing more than two dozen possible scenarios for closing a school, the analysis suggested three optimal scenarios:

    1. A single-day influenza-related absentee rate of 5 percent

    2. Absenteeism of 4 percent or more on two consecutive days

    3. Absenteeism of 3 percent or more on three consecutive days

    Disclosure: (sometimes trading, sometimes holding)

    Disease outbreak map on Globalincident.com

    tinyurl.com/c8f3do

    Link from Guns and OG.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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Comments (199)
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  • FPA: You just tied the all time record of new Concentrators in one day! ;-)
    14 Jun 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Just retreads, not newbies :)
    14 Jun 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • (NVAX): M.E. garza with an excellent primer on why NVAX is possibly seeing insederr buying and may have a blockbuster on it's hands - hint "RSV".

     

    "Is The Novavax 'New Paradigm' Worth A Second Look?"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • FPA-

     

    Great collection of definitions and explanations at the head of this concentrator. For anyone interested in a very interesting treatment of the 1918+ pandemic complete with some lessons for our current preparations, I recommend "The Great Influenza: The story of the deadliest pandemic in history" by John M. Barry (2005, Penguin Books, 546 pages including index). (I'm new to this Concentrator and apologize if this book has already been discussed.)

     

    Although I wish Barry's editor had taken one more pass at the galleys, I found the book facinating and educational. I read it as the interweaving of three main threads: 1) a historical account of that astounding pandemic; 2) a rather thorough biology lesson on how influenza "works"; and 3) an account of the coming-of-age moment at which American medicine became "modern" and caught up with European medical science. As my grandfather was an Army surgeon in the first world war and I was primed with family stories of his career, I was particularly intrigued by the picture of the social transformation of American medicine at that point in time, with many elements that reverberate to this day.

     

    Offered for the good of the order. WDD
    19 Jun 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thanks for the reference WDD.
    19 Jun 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Man oh man. I wish I had some spare coin in my gamer account.

     

    Less than one month ago, I observed in the last Swine Flu Concentrator that Zalicus (ZLCS) was at 76 cents. Now?

     

    $1.60.
    19 Jun 2012, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » A good definition of opportunity costs.
    19 Jun 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » (Reuters) - Pharmaceutical companies including GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK) and Novartis AG (NVS) will get government grants to help develop medicines against pandemics and bioterrorist threats, the U.S. government said on Monday.

     

    GlaxoSmithKline will be part of a $176 million five-year grant in Texas, Novartis will head a $60 million four-year grant in North Carolina, and Emergent (EBS)will work on a $163 million eight-year grant in Maryland.

     

    The grants can be renewed for up to 25 years and will be overseen by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority within HHS. http://tinyurl.com/7bz...
    19 Jun 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Galena Biopharma (GALE) reports positive results. http://bit.ly/LmyS8p
    21 Jun 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Greetings Robert. Do you recommend (GALE)?
    21 Jun 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • FPA: Greetings. I have it at hold right now. I had it a buy at $1 before the spin off of (RXII) which I currently have at hold as well. I would need more insider buying information to upgrade the stock to buy. I think GALE has upside potential but it's a very speculative play right now for sure. I haven't really looked at things recently due to my recent assignment and I'm just now catching up with things. Let me examine things a little deeper and I will post my thoughts early next week.
    21 Jun 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thanks Tons Robert!
    21 Jun 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Your very welcome FPA. Are you still in (IMAX)? I pulled the original investment and left it on house money. In fact almost my entire portfolio is in a defensive posture and I'm once again stock piling cash.
    21 Jun 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » No, I took profits on it some time ago... I have also been stock piling cash :)
    21 Jun 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • I posted a few comments on Quick Chat and was asked to post it here...it won't let me copy and paste but here is the link to the article.
    See my post on the QC for the two flu drugs.

     

    http://bloom.bg/Mla27L
    25 Jun 2012, 06:37 AM Reply Like
  • There are only two flu drugs at present. Roche's "Tamiflu" and BioCryst (BCRX) is biotech that has another drug (peramavir i think)

     

    The article says the flu that spread to animals is susceptible to Tamiflu, but there have always been questions if Tamiflu really worked on flu like H1N1. The BCRX drug is supposedly better. BCRX gained about a dollar/share in the past week or so and I imagine these findings is why. Disclosure, I have traded BCRX but have no position in either co. at present. However it & further studies on this flu bares watching.
    25 Jun 2012, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thanks for the info LT.
    25 Jun 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • New SA article on Novavax:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    25 Jun 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • what is your time frame to mkt ? 2 years ?

     

    I say that because they are in stage 2 trials late this year.
    25 Jun 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • FYI:
    BARDA time frame is 3 years (commenced last year) with optional 2 year extension.
    26 Jun 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » HI OG!!!
    26 Jun 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • any idea about their capital situation? How much cash do they have and how much will they have to raise? Buyout opportunity seen here with NVAX ?
    25 Jun 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Better Late Than Never

     

    With the benefit of hindsight and research, it may be time to admit that the people who responded to the swine flu pandemic of 2009 with utmost caution weren't all that crazy.

     

    In a new study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, CDC researchers write that the H1N1 virus likely claimed around 280,000 lives, or about fifteen times more than the 18,500 confirmed in labs.

     

    The numbers are being highlighted now “To improve the public health response during future pandemics in parts of the world that suffer more deaths, and to increase the public's awareness of the importance of influenza prevention,” said the researcher's lead author Fatimah Dawood, a CDC epidemiologist. http://tinyurl.com/6s2...
    26 Jun 2012, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • (NVAX): "Novavax to Review RSV Program at New International Conference on Modern Vaccines"

     

    Nothing worth reading - just saying they'll present on July 4, 2012 at a conference oriented towards faster delivery of new and improved vaccines.

     

    http://bit.ly/LsdWIF

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jun 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • FPA: Greetings. My apologies once again for being tardy on a due out. I am indeed thinking that both (GALE) and (TLON) are buys at this level. Both have seen share appreciation and increased insider activity in recent days. TLON has begun phase III trials of Marquibo and it's application for accelerated approval will be answered August 12, 2012. http://yhoo.it/QHRIXY As posted earlier GALE is showing encouraging signs in it's study as well. I'm thinking both will be above $2 by Q4.
    30 Jun 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • (NVAX): "NOVAVAX Reports on Progress with RSV Vaccine at New International Conference on Modern Vaccines"

     

    Very good news there. Leaks explain the rise over the last 2 weeks from ~$1.2x to $1.7x?

     

    Worth reading.

     

    http://bit.ly/N0ulHZ

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jul 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thanks HT.... For our readers:

     

    RSV is Respiratory syncytial virus which causes infection of the lungs and breathing passages, is a major cause of respiratory illness in young children.
    5 Jul 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • FPA: It's also fairly deadly for older folks and those with other respiratory problems. IIRC, it's responsible for 85K hospitalizations in the U.S. annually and I forget the death rate. But the newborns are the biggest victims.

     

    One of the reasons NVAX targeted this was there's only one medication out there and it's not all that effective as in some cases it seems to cause negative results - something to do with behavior of the body defenses in the air passages or lungs IIRC.

     

    I'd have to go reading a lot of the bookmarked stuff, but I think I'm in the ballpark there.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jul 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • (NVAX): Golden cross pending, next few days max.

     

    Broken through all 1-year resistance and trends except the upcoming "round numbers" potential resistance at ~$2.00.

     

    Just wanted to give a heads up for those watching this.

     

    RSV is a big deal and, although I've not gone browsing the message boards, I'd bet a dollar to a doughnut that folks are speculating about a potential buy-out and Phase II and III trials confirm early results from Phase I.

     

    If so, combining the golden cross with all that, we could have more to run. Volume profiles support this possibility.

     

    *However*, some of this may be a "short squeeze", as suggested by

     

    http://bit.ly/lZsZ6X

     

    But it's slicing both ways: some evidence of covering in small percentage reductions while the increases are much larger and the reductions and increases seem to be alternating at each reporting period.

     

    The shorters obviously, overall, believe the stock is highly over-valued ATM. But I suspect they don't realize how big a deal RSV really is or might even be totally unaware, just playing the charts suggesting highly overbought.

     

    But in spite of their best efforts they've not been able to hammer the price lower, *yet*, as they might have in the past.

     

    Put/call ratios (OI and dollar volume) don't yet show any bias, likely due to the extremely low price for so long where only $1 options were the reasonable plays and there was no premium to be gained by sellers (pricing was essentially at intrinsic value even forward a couple months) and little upside seen by buyers.

     

    I was in both of these camps - deciding not to sell $1 coverd calls nor buy puts or calls for the last few months.

     

    Breaking $2 might change all that if the run continues. If volume of options starts to appear, the options market-makers will be shorting or going long, appropriately to maintain market-neutrality, and begin to affect volatility - increasing it.

     

    This will increase premiums as implied volatility rises and there may be opportunities there.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    9 Jul 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thanks HT... folks might want to take a look at VICL also. Look at their recent cash position.
    9 Jul 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • (NVAX): "NOVAVAX, CPL Biologicals and the International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology Announce Collaboration to Develop New Malaria Vaccine With Funding From Government of India"

     

    I think the real promise here is "... will explore the possibility of producing additional VLPs against antigens from other stages of malaria parasites. The partners believe a multi-stage VLP malaria vaccine has the potential for higher efficacy compared to vaccines based on a single antigen or that target only one stage of the malaria parasite".

     

    http://bit.ly/Parj5P

     

    HardToLove
    16 Jul 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • (NVAX): "NOVAVAX and PATH Announce Partnership on RSV Vaccine"

     

    - Novavax initially awarded approximately $2 million by PATH
    - Potential for future PATH funding of 50% of external costs to develop maternal RSV vaccine available for low-resource countries
    - Novavax retains global rights to commercialize RSV vaccine

     

    http://bit.ly/NEQ0YB

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • (NVAX): Thinking about how the rise in price began, with good volume, before all the big news hit I suspect that a lot of folks ahd pre-release knowledge and were positioning to sell into the rally at some point. I had mentioned somewhere that it might go $2.10 and it has made $2.13 and then $2.14 and has started to show signs of stalling.

     

    With today's news, this might be the last surge, taking it higher than what I had anticipated. I would then be surprised if we don't start a retrace, maybe to around $1.7x or so, over the next few days.

     

    If you're long, might want to consider selling some covered calls and rake in some premium. Just keep in mind that: 1) I could be *very* wrong, 2) There could be more news or even upgrades coming, and 3) you need to be comfortable with *possibly* missing some upside, depending on the strike price you pick.

     

    If you're really bullish (especially near-term), selling some in-the-money puts that would get you some premium income might be a good play. If you guess wrong and it does drop, it could get you into (or adding) to a position at a very attractive price (strike less received premium. E.g. October $2.00 puts last trade was at $0.40, giving a potential entry at $1.60 +friction. January would be better but there's been no trades.

     

    If your looking for maximum premium, wait for a pullback, but you need to have a good bullish conviction to do this.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Good call on this one, HTL.

     

    I've been out of it for a long time, but I still keep an eye on it.

     

    Chart looks like it is heading back to a median to me. $1.70 could well be the next pause.
    20 Jul 2012, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • I saw a 99% delta on the Jan-13 $1 strike calls and went short those covered calls. Had to work at it as the best bid/ask was from CBOE over several days and they were badly mis-priced on both sides. Finally got $1.10 premium out of the greedy SOBs (I was the greedy one in this case) when pps went to $2.17 or so. CBOE MM was trying to sell at $1.25-$1.35 around that time and was bidding $0.90-$1.00 most of the time. That is much too large a spread. And further than it should be from theoretical value as well.

     

    I plan to take profits at ~$1.7x if it looks like it might bounce off that. There is a decent possibility that the move down could be short-circuited, as there's been a golden cross and both the 50 and 200 day SMAs are about to go parabolic unless pps drops *very* quickly (if Friday's action continues just a few days, that condition would be met).

     

    But ...

     

    Since I expect a lot of momo traders jumped early on this rise, they should start dumping now that the uptrend has stalled and a downtrend has begun (dropped from $2.08-$2.17 range Thursday to make a low of $1.88 and close at $1.93 Friday).

     

    Since the former long-term sideways and then down channel is broken, there's no existing pattern that swing or momo traders can use right now to determine their actions - they have to go on fear, greed, percentages, stop-loss triggers, swing-trade algorithms, ...

     

    This says there is a *possibility* that an overshoot might happen - maybe to the 50 or 200 day SMAs (currently ~$1.47 & ~$1.40)? Especially if some of these folks are late to exit.

     

    There might be some change around Fibonacci re-trace points: take a look-see around the 38.2% re-trace (~$1.80), 61.8% (~$1.57). It so happens the 50% mark is $1.69, matching "reversion to the mean" pretty closely. DOH!

     

    Since there's been relatively little options action and OI is small, I don't expect much impact from the options MMs forcing folks out of their positions.

     

    Profit on my short calls positions, before friction, s/b at least around ~$0.3x. This should take no more than about 1.5-2 weeks, the time NVAX normally trends down after Wed. of options expiration week (which was this week and downtrend start was delayed a day by the PATH JV news I think).

     

    If I get my profits, I'll probably turn some percentage into long position in some long-dated out-of-the-money calls if it looks like a leg up might start, if the market-maker isn't being too greedy. If they are too greedy, I'll probably go long the $1 calls at close to intrinsic value - there seems to be very little time value assigned to them ATM. This latter scenario would give me an addition at somewhere under $2, I think, ignoring friction. If none of the options looks attractive, I'll just add some more shares and work options to reduce the opportunity cost.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    21 Jul 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • From Forbes:
    This article is not about flu vaccinations, just about the anti-vaccine movement, bad science,bad reporting, and the worst whooping cough epidemic in the last 70 years:
    http://onforb.es/PawORy
    24 Jul 2012, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, the pharmaceutical equivilant of luddites.
    24 Jul 2012, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • (NVAX): "NOVAVAX Provides Update on Influenza Programs"

     

    Primary Endpoints Achieved in Phase II Seasonal Influenza Trial
    Two H5N1 Pandemic Influenza Trials Fully Enrolled

     

    "The study's primary objectives of demonstrating safety and immunogenicity of three ascending dose levels of the quadrivalent influenza vaccine were achieved. The VLP vaccine candidate demonstrated immunogenicity against all four viral strains based on hemagglutination inhibition assay (HAI) responses at day 21 ..."

     

    "A secondary endpoint of the study was to evaluate the potential of the VLP vaccine to fulfill the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) criteria for accelerated approval".

     

    "The VLP vaccine candidate exceeded protocol design expectations by fulfilling the FDA seroprotection criterion at the lower 95% confidence bound for all four viral strains included. The VLP vaccine candidate also demonstrated the potential to fulfill the FDA seroconversion criterion by demonstrating ≥40% seroconversion against three of four viral strains. The fourth virus, B/Brisbane /60/08, despite fulfilling the seroprotection criterion, failed to meet the seroconversion criterion. Inclusion of a fourth viral strain in the quadrivalent formulation did not have a significant impact on the immunogenic performance of the other three strains when compared to a trivalent VLP formulation".

     

    "While the data from this trial were positive on balance, we are evaluating both process and assay refinements that we believe will further improve the immunogenicity profile of our vaccine, pushing the start of our next Phase II trial into 2013, rather than the fourth quarter of this year,"

     

    And there's more.

     

    http://bit.ly/NIDjda

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Took an opening long position in NVAX @ 1.70

     

    I tried to post here about BCRX news today, but SA won't let the post show. I get an error message.
    24 Jul 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Another SA article with more detailed information regarding (GALE) test results. http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Jul 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • That 10 year chart of http://bit.ly/MHO26Z is something. A rocket that falls back to earth every 3 years or so.
    25 Jul 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Yep...I think HTL was right on his charts and other TA, we probably see $1.50's...but that is only 10-20 cents below my entry and is where I will double my stake.
    If this last report is accurate, this is a winner. IMO as usual.
    25 Jul 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • BTW...BCRX was up big. I would watch for a pullback to preferably $3.90...but $4-4.25 could hold.
    25 Jul 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • (NVAX): Don't forget to keep track of what the shorts are doing.

     

    http://bit.ly/lZsZ6X

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • The latest short info was 7/13. It was up of course. I would expect that to be when it ran up over 2.00 to that 2.14.

     

    I would expect that most of todays rally is short covering. Am I wrong?
    I have a decent overnight gain, probably should take it.
    25 Jul 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • IMO, today's rally is the entry of the folks that waited for a pullback. The shorts will sell into this as well. We'll have to watch the report for this period to see though.

     

    I'll do a short percentage report for NVAX tomorrow, which includes normal market-maker shorts unfortunately, and we can see if there's any big deviation.

     

    If they sold into the 7/13 period, they may have covered on the pullback to ~$1,76 (or even the $1.6x this A.M.).

     

    If so, they are primed again and if I was a shorter I would've done it today as it approached $2 again.

     

    MHO, lots of guesswork and even more ignorance (the good kind ... ??) involved,
    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I always wonder about offerings with Nvax.
    25 Jul 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • That "offering" is the next worry...I have a very nice gain overnight.
    Not sure how to play it....do I sell calls, or sell puts? Sell stock?
    25 Jul 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • LT: I got thinking about "take profit" and am not sure what *I* would do. I can't recall seeing anything recover almost 100% of 4 days of price drop in a single day before. And volume was greater than the prior two days combined.

     

    The Q, for me, becomes can it run some more? It's not a sustainable trend, but if this was the start of folks entering after a pullback, another day or two could stay up near the recent highs.

     

    If it stays up another day, sell some out of the money covered calls is what *I* would *consider*. This predicated on we have another opportunity for another pullback, magnitude unknown ATM. Then you could buy back your calls for a net profit. Some care is need, of course, with respect to timing and strike price.

     

    BTW, the daily short sales for today won't be availble for a few hours after the Pacific Exchange closes (~21:30?). But I ran some charts 1/1-7/24 and the changes in daily percentages strongly suggest when shorters were busy shorting and when they either backed out or covered. yesterday looked like they were covering.

     

    You want me to throw a quick instablog (chart only) up so you can peek at it? The I can update it tomorrow or late tonight..

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • That would be great to put up some things...and I will talk to you tomorrow after we analyze them.
    thanks HTL.
    25 Jul 2012, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • FPA: With the payment from PATH for the joint effort and the revenues from BARDA, I think they may not need as many as they used to need. And don't forget they moved into a facility with more space and a lower cost not long ago.

     

    Maybe going forward we'll be lucky and they won't have any unless it's to start/increase production capability, which would be accretive rather than dilutive to share value.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Astrazeneca nasal flu vaccine scores big in England:
    http://bit.ly/Pm9nof
    25 Jul 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » (July 26, 2012) Early analysis from the world's first ever efficacy trial of a vaccine against dengue fever shows promising results. In a study involving 4,000 children in Thailand, the vaccine appeared to prevent infection by three of the four circulating strains of the virus and showed an excellent safety profile, its French drug maker Sanofi (SNY) told the press on Wednesday.

     

    The rate of dengue, a mosquito-borne infection found in tropical and sub-tropical regions, has risen dramatically around the world in recent decades, mostly in urban and semi-urban areas. It is also spreading geographically: a recent outbreak in Florida shows that dengue is now reaching continental USA outside the endemic areas of Hawaii and Puerto Rico.There are currently 50 to 100 million people infected every year, and over 40% of the world's population, that is over 2.5 billion people, are estimated to be at risk, says the World Health Organization (WHO).
    26 Jul 2012, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • Seems most of the incidents are dengue fever.

     

    http://bit.ly/tb0kz2
    27 Jul 2012, 05:43 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yup, that's why a vaccine is going to be a big deal.
    27 Jul 2012, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • FPA: Thanks for listing SNY's development of the dengue vaccine.

     

    Having visited Copan, Honduras so frequently, witnessed all the spraying going on, talked to a nice lady in the Parque de Central, who had dengue, reported in your Dengue Concentrator that something like 1 in 35 people in Honduras had had dengue one time or another, this is a huge development.
    27 Jul 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thanks Maya... I really appreciated your (GFI) discussion this morning. I am planning to increase my gold exposure in August, and I love the idea of getting a 4.9% yield.
    27 Jul 2012, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • (NVAX): "NOVAVAX to Report Second Quarter 2012 Financial Results on August 3, 2012"

     

    http://bit.ly/MK2kI1

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • (NVAX): Another possible pullback appears likely as price couldn't break some old $2.20 support points (9/2010, 11-12/2010, ) seen during some consolidation periods, even with the strength of this run up. We wouldn't normally expect these sorts of resistances (formerly support) to offer strong resistance.

     

    Today's volume (3.33M, third highest since the move up started 6/22) and attempt and failure to get *to* $2.20 three times today suggests this second unsustainable run up may be over very shortly, like Monday?

     

    Highest volume since the beginning of the move up was 3.79M on 6/22. Second highest was at the peak of the first "topping" on 7/19, 3.39M.

     

    Another thing that makes me think we *may* have topped is the buy:sell ratio (a simple classification of whether the trade was at or near the ask, the bid or close to the "middle" of the spread. At 15:59, 941.5K buys, 730.1K sells and 1.596MM unknown. If there was buying strength today, I would have expected a much higher ratio of "buy" to "sell" and a much lower "unknown".

     

    All this on a day when strength was seen in the major indexes.

     

    Negative divergence seen: RSI is weaker (~65) than when recent highs were lower (7/2-7/19 RSI ran 89-93.5 as price moved from ~$1.70 to $2.16/$2.17). I don't know how much weight to give this, but some experienced folks I've seen have referenced this as a bearish indicator.

     

    I see two equally likely scenarios: a full re-trace like we saw coming up from the re-trace down to $1.71 (actually got as low as $1.64 on 7/25 but hit $2.15 and closed at $2.11), or a more normal re-trace that yields at least a short consolidation pattern.

     

    If the latter occurs, a basic reversion to the mean again would put us bottoming around $1.85+/- a couple cents. But with the rapidity of the move up I assume the momo players were all over it again and will dump even faster, having recently seen this movie before (7/19 - 7/24). The old adage "It goes down faster than it goes up" may apply, and this went up darned fast.

     

    The "reversion" is just a rough initial target and should not be considered a "hard target" :). There's Fibonaccii points that might apply. On very rapid drops, overshoot is often seen (as it was on my $1.70 target, going 6 cents beyond briefly on the day it rocketed up).

     

    Disclosure: long NVAX, short Jan '13 $1 calls and sold more today for $1.20. Playing the delta with this strike price - will exit at what looks like a near-term low sometime before January *or* use the premium to buy some calls and/or will sell some puts if a leg down doesn't go far enough to suit me and/or get a fair price (market-makers acting greedy - wide spread around theoretical value - I got lucky on the $1.20 today as it was right at that value).

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • I somehow missed this although NVAX announced this stumble last week:
    http://yhoo.it/N6WlYE
    30 Jul 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • OG: Probably because SA's long-standing "Failure to Flag" bug burnt you.

     

    Check the last two paragraphs here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jul 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Isn't that what caused the big sell off ?
    30 Jul 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • I don't believe so LT. Recall that this was started in Australia to get a jump on the timing and bring it to fruition earlier. Tri-valent will still be good but they wanted to get quadra-valent going as it would put them in the catbird seat.

     

    I think the sell-off was just normal after such a huge run up.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jul 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • "Patients achieved the FDA's requirement for antibody production for three of the viral strains, but not the fourth."

     

    Other than fine tuning for phase 2, does this jeopardize BARDA? What are the risks, other than FDA won't fast track approval ( which is always a possibility, imo)?
    Have the risks changed?
    30 Jul 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • OG: AFAIK, it doesn't jeopardize BARDA yet. Based on the technology just what you mention - fine tuning - is likely all that's needed. I'm betting they'll find that the DNA mapping passed was slightly different than what was found in OZ or they didn't quite map it right onto the VLP or ...

     

    Moving the trial back, rather than cancelling, suggests they have some idea of what's possible and/or needed.

     

    Since they were running the trial early and this was the first shot at quadra-valent, I think BARDA will not be dismayed that some adjustment is needed. It might be something such as adjuvant use(d)?

     

    Either way, tri-valent will be a big winner.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    30 Jul 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, the possibilities are still awesome.
    30 Jul 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Here's a new flu from harbor seals that could be communicable to humans:
    http://yhoo.it/N9FUuz
    31 Jul 2012, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • I had heard about this, but this is the first I have read on it. About 4 years ago (when I still worked in the ICU) the fear of the "bird flu" is that is only one mutation away from being airborne transferrable to humans.
    That is why BCRX always jumps on any outbreak. This last outbreak was in Mexico...pretty close to home.
    HIV is difficult to treat because many drugs have put it in remission, but the virus mutates and becomes immune to it faster than any virus in history. The CDC fears this in the bird flu.
    I think NVAX has something, and BCRX too. As I have said before, the only drug out there is Tamiflu by Roche, and it is questionable if it really works or not. It was all we had. Most started it too late according to the label but we had nothing else to give. The market is tremendous for vaccines and / or treatment antibiotics.
    1 Aug 2012, 06:32 AM Reply Like
  • NVAX reports earnings before the mkt. open today.
    3 Aug 2012, 04:40 AM Reply Like
  • LT, there is another drug called Relenza. Isn't that a competitor for Tamiflu?
    3 Aug 2012, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • I have heard of Relenza, but never gave a dose in 15 years. I will do more research on it and get back to you.
    3 Aug 2012, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • LT,I read that both drugs work similarly, but Relenza is delivered via an inhaler while Tamuflu is a tablet.
    6 Aug 2012, 02:05 AM Reply Like
  • I used relenza on the swine flu last dec. It worded will. Yes it is an inhailer that you reload for each dose. Kinda technical for folks that are really sick. My family had already gone to Japan so I was on my own and had to struggle with it.
    8 Aug 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • 8:12 AM Novavax (NVAX): Q2 EPS of -$0.05 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $7.1M (+137% Y/Y) beats by $0.2M. (PR) [Earnings, Healthcare] Comment!
    3 Aug 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • I just read the NVAX release. Second Quarter and First Half 2012 Financial Results
    The company reported a net loss of $5.9 million, or $0.05 per share, for the second quarter of 2012, compared to a net loss of $5.0 million, or $0.04 per share, for the second quarter of 2011. For the six months ended June 30, 2012, the net loss was $13.3 million, or $0.11 per share, compared to a net loss of $12.4 million, or $0.11 per share, for the same period in 2011.
    Revenue in the second quarter of 2012 increased to $7.1 million as compared to $3.0 million for the same period in 2011, which represents a 137% increase, as a result of the Company's contract with the HHS BARDA. In conjunction with this increased HHS BARDA revenue, cost of revenue increased to $5.1 million in the second quarter of 2012 as compared to $1.2 million for the same period in 2011. Research and development expenses increased to $5.2 million in the second quarter of 2012 as compared to $4.4 million for the same period in 2011, primarily due to higher employee-related costs and expenses associated with our new manufacturing facility. General and administrative expenses decreased to $2.7 million in the second quarter of 2012 as compared to $3.3 million for the same period in 2011 primarily resulting from lower employee-related costs, including severance expenses, partially offset by non-cash expenses associated with our new office facility.
    As of June 30, 2012, the company had $26.5 million in cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments compared to $18.3 million as of December 31, 2011. During the first half of 2012, the company has raised approximately $20 million from the sale of common stock. Net cash used in operating activities for the first half of 2012 was $10.3 million compared to $17.4 million for the same period in 2011, a 41% reduction from the prior year period due primarily to revenue under the HHS BARDA contract.
    3 Aug 2012, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • New swine flu virus:

     

    http://bit.ly/TbmnOw
    6 Aug 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Here is another one Maya: H3N8

     

    Flu That Leapt From Birds to Seals Is Studied for Human Threat http://tinyurl.com/bsb...
    6 Aug 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • I posted a couple of weeks ago that the bird flu is one mutation away from human threat.

     

    this is news from 3-4 years ago+. The threat is real.

     

    It's in seals now and the new swine flu is another flu mutation.
    6 Aug 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • We have swine flu here in Ohio and it was getting spread from pigs at the county fairs to folks.

     

    http://cin.ci/QLgx9j
    8 Aug 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • The flu being so prevalent in livestock is worrisome to me. I don't understand all that I know about it.
    I just did much new reading on Relenza vs. Tamiflu this morning. It appears that many types of flu are immune to Tamiflu now. (I think about 35% approx.) Both drugs are in the same family.
    This gives Relenza a little bit of an advantage going forward. The main drawback is respiratory side effects such as constricting of the bronchial airways in some patients. That's probably why we didn't use it in the ICU, as most of our patients were respiratory compromised already.
    I expect BCRX peramivir to be approved. I really do not know what the hold up is. It was approved in England(Europe) and the CDC has stockpiled doses of it.
    8 Aug 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • 145 cases of new swine flu reported...but not as dangerous as thought:
    http://bit.ly/RFfUxe
    10 Aug 2012, 05:05 AM Reply Like
  • Rattie, how 'bout adding this link to the instablog?
    http://bit.ly/tb0kz2
    10 Aug 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ok... will do.
    10 Aug 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks!

     

    When I clicked on this, I got an error. It is no longer active, i suspect.
    2011 H1N1 US Flu Outbreak Map:
    Here is a link that gives information by US states. The Link is from DoubleGuns
    tinyurl.com/6khyjq

     

    Time for some housekeeping! This is such an old concentrator!
    10 Aug 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OK... added the link to the Disease outbreak map on Globalincident.com at the bottom of the header area.
    10 Aug 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Fund ups NVAX holdings:

     

    in a 13G filing on Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX), mutual fund FMR LLC disclosed a 12.649%, or 16,715,426 share, stake in the company. This is up 548.88% from the 2,576,060 shares held at the end of the latest quarter ending March 31, 2012.
    For more notable holders of Novavax, Inc. stock click here. For more information on FMR LLC click here.
    News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation
    10 Aug 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • "Researchers at Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, Calif., and Crucell Vaccine Institute in the Netherlands say they have discovered a human antibody that protects against essentially all influenza A and B strains."
    http://abcn.ws/NRRiL8
    10 Aug 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • In a 13G filing on Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX), mutual fund FMR LLC disclosed a 12.649%, or 16,715,426 share, stake in the company. This is up 548.88% from the 2,576,060 shares held at the end of the latest quarter ending March 31, 2012.
    11 Aug 2012, 05:53 AM Reply Like
  • The stock rallied about 10 cents on that news...and wow, that is quite a stake they have taken. We should follow FMR, and watch for any more accumulation or selling later on.

     

    I had thought until that came out that NVAX would drift back down and test the $1.60-70 area agin...HTL maybe could help with TA.

     

    I view this as a big positive for this stock.
    11 Aug 2012, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • LT: As I mentioned elsewhere, it's broken it's long-term patterns, so making a prognostication is even more risky for me than usual. However ...

     

    Keying off volume patterns, price action, early formation of a trading channel (*potential* only) ...

     

    On 6/18, the 10-day average volume was ~340K and peaked at ~2.135MM on 7/27. Since then it has been tailing down and currently sits at 1.078MM. This is normal behavior early in either a consolidation or reversal.

     

    As you know, I ran up and peaked the first time at $2.17 (closed $2.13) on 7/19, dropped in 3 days back to my suggested reversion price and the next day went even lower ($1.64) before hitting $2.15 that same day, 7/25. When another high was made 7/30, $2.24, volume had already began to drop back, indicating the exhaustion at these high prices has already set in.

     

    Starting the next two days, an early suggestion of a descending trading channel has formed with volume "cupping" (starting *relatively* higher, bottoming and then starting to climb again) but it's all *very* short-term and shouldn't be weighed as heavily as one might normally weight this activity.

     

    Using the recent minimum and maximum price range ($1.64-$2.25) and a simple reversion to mean again would suggest a price target of ~$1.94, which it achieved 8/9.

     

    Next week is options expiration week and we usually get volatility that week with (NVAX) hitting a high for the week on Wednesday. *But*, recall that I'm worried that it has broken out of the long-term patterns and behavior may have changed.

     

    May initial thought, with cupping of the volume, is that it's going to do a little consolidation. We don't know if it's going to first continue trading in the *potential* falling channel that may be forming (this would be the leg down that would establish the *initial* *potential* low for a sideways trading range which I expect will develop somewhere along the way) or immediately start a sideways or even upward leg. With options expiration week, I would tend to discount any upward leg at this time for establishment of a trading range and/or near-term direction.

     

    May initial thoughts through Friday, 8/10 is that my original ~$1.75 area will be either the bottom or mid-range of a sideways range for a while as impatient investors again become antsy as no multi-mega billions buyout appears in the next month or two.

     

    If we allow for something near a Fibonacci re-trace, there's a good possibility that a trading range with the low end around $1.60 (the top of an earlier trading range that lasted about 6 months before we established a lower top of range around $1.45) could appear and we did near this already (low of $1.64 7/25). But right now I'm favoring something around the $1.7x as either a center or bottom of range.

     

    The momo players s/b long gone now and we should be able to see trends begin to develop shortly.

     

    Longer-term, if there is not a catalytic stream of PR issuing forth, price will likely again drift slowly downward. This pattern will be interrupted when the results from various trials begin coming in late calendar Q4 or in Q1 and a nice spike should again appear.

     

    Finishing up the TA aspects, oscillators are weakening, as we would expect after this huge "double hump" up. So we don't know how much weight to give them, although they do offer me "confirmation bias" opportunity here. :-))

     

    Last, on a weekly chart, we see several bearish suggestions that support my sideways/down scenario.

     

    First is that volume on the weekly is "domed", starting low, rising and falling again, reflecting the weakness I mentioned earlier. Price peaked just above the 200-week average (which is falling) and retreated below it (it's at ~$2.19), is trading above the 10, 20, and 50 week averages, is making what may turn out to be a rounding top, and is at the high side of the Bollinger bands (but mine are at experimental settings - shorter than normal periods, 13 instead of 20).

     

    Add in potential "hammering" from the following folks.
    Settle Date..... Short Inter... % Chg.
    07/31/2012.... 15,463,138..... 33.90
    07/13/2012.... 11,548,094...... 17.53
    06/29/2012...... 9,825,577....... 2.21
    06/15/2012...... 9,612,748...... (1.29)
    05/31/2012...... 9,738,837...... 8.59

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    11 Aug 2012, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL...great TA work. My only worry is that is what I see too. However mine is too simple. But our numbers should turn to be the same.
    I hadn't seen the short interest. That's a big jump.
    11 Aug 2012, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Sometimes whales will hedge when they add a large bite...
    11 Aug 2012, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • I expect that is a bit of what is going on with such high short....Wonder if it is the fund that took such a huge stake ?

     

    I looked at selling calls but i can't seem to get anything for them. They are hard to trade.
    11 Aug 2012, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • LT: until volume appears in some sustained fashion the options market-makers will be asking excessive premiums for going short (selling you stuff) and offering little more than intrinsic value to go long (buying from you). This will exhibit in a wide "spread".

     

    An example is the $1 strike Jan '13 calls I shorted. Delta was ~99% at the time and I shorted for $1.10 and $1.20 when we were in the $2.1x-$2.2x range. Bid/ask was running around $1.00/$1.25 (25% spread) to $1.10/$1.35 at the time(s).

     

    But when pps went to $1.7x, the best bid dropped from $1.10 or so to only $0.90-$0.95. Theoretically it should have gone to around $0.80 or so, considering values for theta and delta. And best ask dropped to only ~$1.00, IIRC (but I wasn't watching 100% of the time, so I might have missed different lower values).

     

    The options market-maker knows that when things are not liquid there is higher risk and so doesn't offer any "good" or even "fair" (based on theoretical value) deals.

     

    An oddity, to me, is that we had this run-up with very little options activity. I guess that's a reflection, now that we know, of the push being primarily a single larger buyer rather than "mass hysteria". I had mentioned somewhere on something that institutions don't really care about what price they pay as long as they see a reasonable percentage profit at the end. Sort of a long-term version of swing or momo players I guess. Institutional will be the sellers keeping price tamped down a bit when the time comes.

     

    If you want to rake a little premium and/or own (NVAX) cheap, wait a bit (1-5 weeks or so?) and consider going short some $1 or $2 strike long-dated puts. That's one of the options (pun intended) I'm watching ATM. But I've not been checking price yet.

     

    OG likely has some additional thoughts on how you might want to work this situation - various bull/bear spreads, calendar spreads, ...

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    12 Aug 2012, 05:48 AM Reply Like
  • West Nile Virus in Dallas county...worst in decades:

     

    http://yhoo.it/Nu74fP
    11 Aug 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • FDA Approved flu drugs, announced today:
    http://1.usa.gov/P8PhP8

     

    The manufacturers licensed to produce the nation’s 2012-2013 flu vaccines and the brand names of the vaccines for the upcoming flu season are:
    Afluria, manufactured by CSL Limited;
    Fluarix, manufactured by GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals;
    FluLaval, manufactured by ID Biomedical Corporation;
    FluMist, manufactured by MedImmune Vaccines Inc.;
    Fluvirin, manufactured by Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics Limited; and
    Fluzone, Fluzone High-Dose and Fluzone Intradermal, manufactured by Sanofi Pasteur.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++...
    For the following strains:
    Based on that information and the recommendations of the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, the strains selected for inclusion in the 2012-2013 flu vaccines are:
    A/California/7/2009 (H1N1)-like virus
    A/Victoria/361/2011 (H3N2)-like virus
    B/Wisconsin/1/2010-like virus.

     

    While the H1N1 virus is the same as what was included in the 2011-2012 influenza vaccines, this year’s influenza H3N2 and B viruses differ from those in the 2011-2012 influenza vaccines.
    13 Aug 2012, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • Oy, Gee: Greetings. Any stats on virulence or means of distribution?
    14 Aug 2012, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Hi, Bob.So far, it's just a normal flu season, no evidence of a pandemic outbreak.
    15 Aug 2012, 03:30 AM Reply Like
  • Not so sure, OyGee, West Nile is the worst in years. Not pandemic, but:

     

    http://nbcnews.to/N3GtFX
    15 Aug 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Ohio state fair officials dash the hopes of entrants in state fair by sending them home because they had come down with swine flu.

     

    http://bit.ly/PqUNu7

     

    Awake yet!!
    16 Aug 2012, 05:22 AM Reply Like
  • GERON ... I think this is a must read and analyze article. If any of this has merit, it is as good or better than NVAX for a speculative play. Be sure to read all of it, because the author gives an option hedge strategy to limit losses to 10%.
    If any one of six drugs hit, this is a winner.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    16 Aug 2012, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • West Nile Virus update in Texas and now NY

     

    http://bit.ly/OzMcc8
    16 Aug 2012, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • Time to slip a cap of Chlorox into the H2O fountain. Little squiggleys abound.

     

    Thanx for the move, LT.

     

    Guns. Did you hit Guatemala on the international map?
    16 Aug 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Early this morning. I saw that dengue outbreak. There was also a good earthquake in El Salvador. Party will be surrounded by incidents if this keeps up.

     

    Still have hotel room to deal with any takers before everyone is scared off?
    16 Aug 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • I recall last time I went down there I was about three weeks or so behind a volcano blowing up, covering the Guat Airport in six inches of ash.

     

    And then there was that big hole that opened up in Guat City. Great pics of it here:

     

    http://binged.it/PfANgy

     

    Of course, a couple of days ago the Honduran police nabbed a top shelf drug lord, and then let him go within 24 hours, infuriating the El Salvador prez:

     

    http://bit.ly/PfAORB

     

    It's what makes trips to Central America charming.
    16 Aug 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • West Nile 390 cases reported in yesterdays newspaper in NC and one death.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Aug 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Maya that "Sink hole" is the most impressive hole I have ever seen. Looks more like a missile silo for the Mayans.
    16 Aug 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Geron closed up 22% today...and before you ask, no I did not buy any this morning..it was up to $1.70+ and I got busy then it was too late.
    16 Aug 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • I did buy Geron today on the pullback....2000 shares @ $2.00
    17 Aug 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • More on West Nile; may be a record breaker?

     

    http://bit.ly/MNexL8
    22 Aug 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Hi Maya... The National Institute of Health (NIH) recently announced the first clinical trial for a West Nile virus vaccine manufactured by (VICL) of San Diego The experimental vaccine, which has already been tested on horses, will be tested on 15 human volunteers.

     

    So it's in an early stage of development.
    29 Aug 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Just printed on MarketWatch.com that West Nile now epidemic in Michigan.
    29 Aug 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Despite making a killing a few years back on VICL (I believe we followed it here briefly) I would suggest caution with this company...

     

    I still consider it a trade rather than a buy and hold for any long period of time.
    10 Oct 2012, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Geron (GERN) up 8% today, NVAX up 2%. Nice participation from all small caps today.
    disclosure: Long both
    24 Aug 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • What drug company made the announcement that their bionanotech flu drug is orally deliverable? It's being teased by Agora. HELP!
    Agora states the release of an oral form of this potential drug could fight flu, HIV, herpes, dengue and Ebola.
    According to Patrick Cox at Agora
    It's more effective than Tamilfu and the pill works almost as well as the injection. He described it as "nearly as efficacious."
    Oral delivery has awesome potential and worth billions plus represents new means of handling pandemics and could better protect first responders-- lots of potential.

     

    Let's solve this tease without subscribing!
    28 Aug 2012, 04:47 AM Reply Like
  • I think I solved it. The company is NanoViricides (NNVC). It took me longer to write the above description than it did to find the company.

     

    I'd appreciate insight looking at this company. Biotech is very challenging for me.
    28 Aug 2012, 04:54 AM Reply Like
  • From what I see, it could have a few promising drugs including:
    Flu
    Genital warts & Herpes cold sore cream

     

    They have 13 m in cash at the end of march with about a 4 million cash burn rate/quarter.

     

    An oral flu drug that works would be great. The Genital wart thing is big too..
    You are like me from what I see, in that it is very early on this. I would watch it and see what happens if they have to raise capital.
    As with any development stage bio-tech, trading at .60 is cheap, so you could take an entry stake and maybe get lucky. They are just starting human trials, so they are 2+ years away from revenue.
    28 Aug 2012, 05:21 AM Reply Like
  • They have raised some capital via shelf offerings to one investor group--around $20 Mil so far/ the latest was in June for $ 5 Mil. They have no long term and insignificant short term debt. They say they have enough cash to go 2 years.

     

    The share price has been falling. Imo, it is pricey stock.
    http://bit.ly/PnmoR1
    28 Aug 2012, 06:27 AM Reply Like
  • OG its a $500 stock. By that I mean put $500 in it and walk away for a year at a time till something happens.
    28 Aug 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Star Pharma update (this is another one on my watch list, I have no position in it):

     

    http://bit.ly/RVGu6B
    28 Aug 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Want to gamble? Short VRTX ... Vertex cystic fibrosis drug found to cause cataracts.

     

    Can't publish link, but it's on the news.
    29 Aug 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Alkermes Pharmaceuticals creates non-addictive herion like drug that will crush depression. It also could revolutionize the pharmacologic treatment of major depression and panic disorder and post-traumatic stress disorder and obsessive-compulsive disorder.

     

    Read more: http://fxn.ws/Oxx4Lk

     

    http://fxn.ws/Oxx4Lo
    29 Aug 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Stifel Nicolaus initiates coverage on Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN) with a Buy. PT $4.00.
    30 Aug 2012, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • VRTX update....as i posted yesterday, they had sorta bad news with the cystic fibrosis drug in low doses to young rats causing cataracts.

     

    This should have been bad news....

     

    Since then 2 back to back upgrades to a buy....I shorted the stock yesterday, but the longs pushed it all day to hold support in that $53.34 range.
    The short may turn out ok, but it doesn't look good now, as end of month comes they want to support it. It was too high at $54 anyway.
    I think the longs keep playing it for a buyout.
    30 Aug 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • might get a little pop outta this news:

     

    ROCKVILLE, Md., Sept. 4, 2012 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq:NVAX) a clinical-stage vaccine company, announced today that Stanley C. Erck, President and Chief Executive Officer of Novavax, will present at the 2012 Stifel Nicolaus Healthcare Conference on September 6, 2012 at 2:05pm in Boston, MA. A live webcast link for the presentation can be accessed via the Company website at http://www.novavax.com under Investor Info/Events.
    4 Sep 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • LT: used to get a pop a lot from that stuff. Recently (last couple years?) very little. I think it's because the story is so well known now and the disappoints too.

     

    This time really is different though, but I think the market is now from Missouri.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Sep 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • I agree, started to put on Friday or after.....
    4 Sep 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Here is an interesting article on some Imunotherapy Biopharma companies. Galena (GALE) is among them. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Disclosure: I own a healthy position in (GALE) and it's sister (RXII)
    4 Sep 2012, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • * JMP starts Geron Corp with market perform rating
    source is Reuters
    6 Sep 2012, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • GERON...BAD NEWS ! Down over $1 in pre-mkt.

     

    Sept 10 (Reuters) - Geron Corp :
    * Geron provides update on imetelstat clinical development program
    * Says discontinuing its randomized phase 2 study of imetelstat in metastatic
    her2-negative breast cancer
    * Says pre-specified success criteria in this trial are unlikely to be met
    * Study stopped on interim analysis as median progression-free survival in
    imetelstat arm was shorter than in comparator arm
    10 Sep 2012, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • 2 out of 6 drugs look to fail (breast & lung cancer drugs)...getting worse with every word.

     

    7:38 AM Geron (GERN) is discontinuing its Phase 2 study of imetelstat in HER2-negative breast cancer because imetelstat performed worse than the control. It also says its Phase 2 study of imetelstat for lung cancer is unlikely to meet success. (PR) [Healthcare, Breaking News, On the Move] 3 Comments
    10 Sep 2012, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • LT: Greetings. Thanks for the heads up. Do they have anything else of note in their pipeline?
    10 Sep 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Geron has/had 6 new drugs in the pipeline and some if not all were in phase 2 trials. These two were late stage 2. That was the killer. There is a big focus on cancer treating drugs.

     

    Not sure what the other 4 are. I would have to look.

     

    It hurt me today as I was long GERN. I look for a bounce, but man they sold it hard on volume. With no help from the company.
    10 Sep 2012, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry to here that LT. I hate holding red stocks for long periods but sometimes it's unavoidable.
    10 Sep 2012, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Not a good day for biotechs!

     

    Zalicus (ZLCS) also got mutilated this morning:

     

    -- "In the absence of a clinically meaningful benefit with Synavive compared to its active glucocorticoid component, Zalicus will discontinue further clinical development with Synavive. These results are not only disappointing to Zalicus, but also to the many steroid-dependent patients who are seeking a safer treatment alternative,” said Mark H.N. Corrigan, MD, CEO of Zalicus

     

    http://yhoo.it/U4uvPE

     

    Trading was halted; stock is currently down over 34%.
    10 Sep 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Add in that Marketwatch report Europe crushed bio stocks this A.M.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Sep 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • The zalicus gravy train derailed.
    10 Sep 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Bad day for bios indeed...

     

    (September 11, 2012) Sanofi (SNY) dengue vaccine less effective than hoped.
    From: Reuters, by Ben Hirschler

     

    The world's most advanced vaccine against dengue fever, being developed by French drug maker Sanofi proved far less effective than hoped in a clinical trial in Thailand, researchers reported on Monday. The result leaves uncertain the future of a product that Sanofi has previously said could generate more than 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) in yearly sales.

     

    Overall efficacy was 30.2 percent - statistically insignificant. While this sounds terrible, it's important to understand that dengue consists of different four strains, virus types 1 - 4. The poor outcome was due to the failure of the vaccine to protect against one type of dengue virus (type 2), which turned out to be the prevalent one in Thailand at the time of the study.

     

    Efficacy was around 60 percent against dengue virus type 1 and 80-90 percent against types 3 and 4. Interestingly, a single dose of the vaccine proved roughly as good as three doses.

     

    If the Thai trial results had been strong enough, it could have filed for early marketing approval in some countries. Instead, attention will now focus on results for the ongoing Phase III trials, with any commercial launch in 2015 or later. Sanofi is currently conducting final-stage Phase III trials with 31,000 participants in Asia and Latin America. http://tinyurl.com/9js...
    11 Sep 2012, 03:16 AM Reply Like
  • FPA: What's interesting to me is that DJ puts out a notice that (SNY) will publish results in the online version of Lancet and the pre-market (from London(?) 04:29-07:19 ATM) pops up +2.21% to $42.62.

     

    I guess your post hasn't hit the broader market yet as I would think that anticipated 2015 availability and single-dose efficacy (reducing revenues that might have occurred with multi-dose requirements) would forestall any pop at this time.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Sep 2012, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » That's a good point HT. I am thinking (SNY) might have gone up because the vaccine did demonstrate efficacy on three of the four strains. That's a lot better than a stick in the eye. I would think they could market what they have while they work on that type 2 strain.
    12 Sep 2012, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • FPA: Another possible impetus up. Tracking, occasionally, the ADVFN "trades" screen, I see a *lot* of "burst basket" trades for (SNY). This indicates that he trades were part of a basket of various equities traded with one order, as part of things such as ETFs I guess. If sector sentiment is bullish, as it seems to be, SNY could be getting dragged along with the sector.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: this A.M. pre-market trades 400K in one trade @ $43.41. This sort of thing is common on SNY.
    12 Sep 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Burst Basket trade! I learn something new everyday. Thanks HT.
    12 Sep 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • 7:18 PM Sanofi (SNY) wins U.S. FDA approval for Aubagio, a pill designed to treat multiple sclerosis, making it the second oral therapy that will be available on the U.S. market. The drug will compete with Novartis' (NVS) Gilenya, an oral pill which was approved by the FDA in 2010. (Read the comments on this)
    12 Sep 2012, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • so, i went long ARNA last week thanks to the CS downgrade. looking at Jan 15$ calls selling for 44 cents a share = market not buying analyst BS.
    18 Sep 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • NVAX up to $2.04 in premarket....anyone know why it's rallied yesterday and today?
    19 Sep 2012, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • LT: This is normal behavior for NVAX. In options expiration week it normally makes a near-term move up and peaks on Wednesday.

     

    In the next two weeks or so it tails down and hits a low around the week before options expiration week - like it did last week when it briefly went to $1.79 (hitting my target).

     

    Longer-term, until some news comes, it will trend lower, as seen in the charts so far.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Sep 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • thanks...been gone and have not looked at charts and trends lately.
    19 Sep 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • UN issues global alert over new SARS-like virus
    http://nbcnews.to/PBcY1K
    24 Sep 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • More on the same story. This one in the Times of India says someone else died in Qatar earlier this year and the new case from Qatar has been transported to London http://bit.ly/RdvFd3
    24 Sep 2012, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • Saw signs informing about sars during security checks in Germany. Now I know why.
    1 Oct 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Zogenix time to go long? I think so very soon.
    http://bit.ly/UHYjGs
    26 Sep 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • LT: Greetings. I'll take a look.
    26 Sep 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • NVAX..data looks good...there is a long article out on it's presentation. This probably explains why it traded 2.13+ this week.

     

    * Data Reinforce Previous Clinical and Preclinical Studies
    * Successfully Induced F-Protein Specific Neutralizing Antibody Response
    * Phase 2 Studies to Begin in the Fourth Quarter of 2012
    27 Sep 2012, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • (NVAX): "Novavax Presents RSV Vaccine Data at the 8th Annual International Respiratory Virus Symposium"

     

    To present 9/25.

     

    - Data Reinforce Previous Clinical and Preclinical Studies
    - Successfully Induced F-Protein Specific Neutralizing Antibody Response
    - Phase 2 Studies to Begin in the Fourth Quarter of 2012

     

    "The company's RSV vaccine was found to induce >10 fold higher palivizumab-like antibodies, as well as 14-50 fold higher antibodies against an array of neutralizing sites defined by a known panel of monoclonal antibodies versus a formalin inactivated whole virus RSV (FI-RSV)".

     

    Lots more details in the article.

     

    http://yhoo.it/Qethjm

     

    HardToLove
    27 Sep 2012, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • LOL....our post hit at the same time .

     

    Glad to see you on top of things ... now make it soar in pps.!
    27 Sep 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • I used to trade this stock...seems that they are making progress slowly.

     

    10:21 AM StemCells (STEM) jumps 11.4% after saying its proprietary HuCNS-SC neural stem cells have been transplanted into a patient with an incomplete spinal cord injury - and thereby retains some functionionality - for the first time. Earlier this month, StemCells said two out of three patients with complete injuries enjoyed restored sensation after receiving the company's stem cells. (PR) Comment! [On the Move,
    27 Sep 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks LT - added to my watch list.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Sep 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • 3:25 PM Life Technologies (LIFE +1%) trades higher after receiving FDA clearance for its OpTmizer T-Cell growth medium for use in clinical trials. The product is designed to efficiently grow large numbers of potentially therapeutic T-cells, which have demonstrated promise in clinical studies as an effective treatment for diseases including cancer, infectious diseases such as AIDS, and autoimmune disorders. [Healthcare] Comme
    27 Sep 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Decided to add small starter position in OSUR @$11.25. I liked most of what I read. Its 1st in-home HIV test kits hit retail pharma chains this weekend; it has enjoyed recent upgrades; and it has met or exceeded last 5 qtly est. http://reut.rs/QizCMj This morning OraSure filed a $200M mixed securities shelf http://cbsn.ws/PRDwM8 . I plan to watch dips for additions and will watch next earnings cycle for any surprises. I thought this analysis re: potential A/R and revenue risks was worth keeping in the back of my mind going into Q4: http://bit.ly/W7WbWv
    1 Oct 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • I haven't followed this thread regularly so just want to ask whether any of you have an opinion on OraSure Technologies OSUR?? I heard the CEO interviewed by Cramer and I was interested by their new at home HIV testing product launched this week as well as their Hep C tests etc. Any perspectives?

     

    Thanks,
    mj
    27 Sep 2012, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • sorry MJ, I know nothing of them..
    28 Sep 2012, 04:11 AM Reply Like
  • MJ: I've done no DD on them at all. Sorry I can't yet help.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Sep 2012, 06:28 AM Reply Like
  • Thank you LT and HTL. I will do an intial review on OSUR and get back to this group if anything intrigues me longer term, although I may buy a short term trading bloc if the price drops much during one of our "downer days."

     

    Have a great weekend everyone.
    mj
    28 Sep 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thanks Mercy!
    28 Sep 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy, Jimenez: Greetings. Haven't heard of them but will take a snap of them. Thanks and have a great week end all.
    28 Sep 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • My take is that this might be a good one to trade, but I am concerned with their potential vulnerability to class action lawsuit (the political dimension supports this sort of scenario, at least once the company achieves what the torn industry calls "relevant size" (deep enough pockets to make them worth picking).

     

    But BEFORE that point is reached, I see the stock in the high teens.
    10 Oct 2012, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Some of our followings have made it to the news now: NVAX, STEM
    HTL, see how this fits your TA

     

    http://bit.ly/QAQ6ky
    28 Sep 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • LT: For all the stocks he mentions, keep in mind we just went through EOQ "window dressing". The effects were seen across many sectors and equities. Starting Monday, we should see a more normal 9 to 11-week period before the next "window dressing" cycle.

     

    For that reason, I expect many of the recent signs of strength to dissipate, for the near-term.

     

    (NVAX): I mostly agree - all things are *possible*, but I don't expect what he's suggesting *may* happen near-term. One of the reasons why is mentioned above. It is, IMO, the reason we saw NVAX break above the descending trading channel it had been in since the highs of 7/30-8/1. On 9/20, 7 trading days before EOQ, it broke above that channel and went mostly straight up and above it's 50-day SMA in just a day or two. Prior to that it had started forming a consolidation triangle, suggesting a trend continuation at the end - down in this case.

     

    The 50-day is flattening and started a roll-over from it's rise. Whether it just goes flat here or rolls over faster will be determined by coming price action as prices "falling out" of the calculation period are similar to current prices. Pps has a long history of hanging around it's 50-day SMA moving above and then back below and then above, ...

     

    RSI is overbought, as is MFI and Williams %R.

     

    We have a "negative divergence" in that RSI is now weaker than when prices were in this similar and lower areas 6/28-7/19. Some folks put a lot of credence in this - I've not developed a strong opinion on it myself yet, but I'm leaning towards giving it some credence in the long-term as I have seen it play out that way in other equities I follow.

     

    Let's recall that this move up was sparked by the RSV announcement, which is a really big deal long-term. So that news is all "baked in". They did a presentation Friday and that may pop it for a few days. Need to watch and see what moves follow, and their strength, a few days later and subsequently. With the news pretty-much already known, "window dressing" over ... this may be a "sell the news" deal and price may weaken as profit is taken. The volume "spike" Friday does suggest that the up-trend may end soon as buyers at this level may have been exhausted. Of course, articles such as the one you linked may have an effect for at least a few days.

     

    Personally, knowing how the NVAX investors have acted in the past and knowing we still have Phase II, Phase III, ... FDA approval processes ahead, and patience lacking in the market (and NVAX investors), I expect price to start to move back into a channel. Without EOQ I'm pretty sure we'd still be in the prior descending channel, making the 5th leg, a down leg, and sitting around $1.85 right now.

     

    If it behaves as I expect, the only question is if it will retreat into the prior descending channel or establish a new channel - sideways or down being my most likely scenarios, until more catalytic news appears.

     

    Positive TA indicators do exist - accum/distribution is the strongest it's been on a one year chart, +~12.8, although on a 2-year it's still at a miserable ~-30. Last time it was in this area (mid-June '11) it was already in a down-trend though (and a couple weeks later price took a big dive) and this time it's flattened off a rising trend that ended 8/10 and we've stayed predominately flat since.

     

    ADX and related are moving positive, but not yet in a sustained positive area. The improvement, from a bearish slant, began at the start of "window dressing", so I'm not giving it a lot of weight yet.

     

    I'll take a quick look at some of the others, but since I don't follow them and have no "experience" with them (meaning I can't add what I think are important considerations to the traditional TA), my posts will be likely less extensive.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    29 Sep 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • LT: (SGYP) I like his take on this one better than his NVAX call because 1) there's no descending channel that he ignored and 2) if I drew trend lines it would have a sideways channel similar to his and 3) it apparently was not pumped up by "window dressing" season, 4) it appears to have entered long-term consolidation - it's not nearing the end of some leg up or down, 5) its 50-day SMA should become more parabolic and the 200 is already rising, 6) all the TA oscillators I use are more neutral, 7) Little or no negative RSI divergence from recent prices in the same range (around 6/26) and 8) it's making a short-term consolidation triangle making a trend continuation most likly, in this case up.

     

    Just be careful to avoid a "head fake", common when in a sideways trend. Might want to have stop losses set (mentally at least).

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    29 Sep 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • (STEM): Where he sees a rising triangle, suggestive of a break upwards, I see a consolidation triangle (pennant): falling resistance formed by the top of 9/4 and 9/27 and rising support bottom of 8/24 with several touches at bottoms through 7/27. The consolidation pattern is laterally in the area where a break out of the pattern is common (~66%-75% along the way to the apex). If a break up occurs soon and goes through both the falling resistance and his flat guideline (the two have now converged and a break should happen soon if it's going to) the ~$2.65 area seems likely.

     

    However, my take suggests no direction as the predominate trend since that gap has been up, then slide back, up and slide again - net effect for me seems mostly a sideways trend. So even if it breaks up, as soon as it hits that ~$2.65 area, I expect it'll slide back again.

     

    Note the hugh volume spike 9/27 - almost 5 times it's 10-day average (~10.9MM vs ~2.3MM). Unlike the prior ones, which had consecutive days of rising prices with rising volume, this one is followed by falling price and falling volume. EOG "window dressing" ending effect? Even with that volume, the $2.26-$2.30 resistance rejected the move up for the 4th time with three on very strong volume - a sign of strong resistance (IOW, a sign of weakness at this price level).

     

    The time to catch this one would've been 8/30 for the most recent rise.

     

    We do have a negative RSI divergence, as compared to the 7/24 area, though and there is an un-filled gap from 7/16-7/17. Gaps "like" to be filled. But there's a long ways down to go before that would seem likely to occur. We have weak(ening) accumulation/distribut... and other oscillators sort of bleh.

     

    I think this moves lower before moving up again.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    29 Sep 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL...very good
    29 Sep 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • OOPS! S/b "rising support bottom of 8/24 with several touches at bottoms through 9/27".

     

    HardToLove
    29 Sep 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • H.T.Love: Greetings. Thanks
    29 Sep 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Great stuff as always HT... thanks!
    29 Sep 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Oct 2 (Reuters) - Novavax Inc :
    * Announces stock shelf of up to $50 million - SEC filing
    2 Oct 2012, 06:20 AM Reply Like
  • (NVAX): ... from time to time in at-the-market offerings

     

    http://bit.ly/VarIcr

     

    HardToLove
    2 Oct 2012, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  • That's what I hate about small caps and penny stocks....think AXPW and capital raises....I expect all bio's to raise capital as money frees up.
    Tight credit mkts. have held some back, but no matter how much cash they have...in the current environment and 2013 uncertainty makes widespread capital raises likely. GE sells $7 B in bonds today.
    When IBM does a big bond offering, would signal to me the low in interest rates if history repeats itselff.
    2 Oct 2012, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • (NVAX): If we assume an average at the market price of $2.20, the shares sold would work out to ~22.7MM into a current float of 133.7MM. So this 156.4MM possible float represents a dilution of ~17%. Using that same $2.20 price, share price would gravitate towards ~$1.88 w/o catalytic news.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Oct 2012, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • Luckily I was playing it with house money. Nice profit, but Still stings tho. Sold 1/3 in pre-mkt already and order in to sell another 1/3
    2 Oct 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • LT: Greetings. IBM has been issuing low interest debt since 2010. http://bloom.bg/RaEnae More recently in July they sold $1B woth of 10 year notes under 2%. Other companies have been doing the same to lock in low interest funding. http://on.ft.com/VdcjYZ That being said they are not deploying those funds they are sitting on them.
    2 Oct 2012, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Good evening Robt.
    I know IBM has floated small amounts. But GE was $7 billion and I read one article that said GE would do $13 B before it was over. That's big.
    What bothers me is two things,,,first is your statement about "not deploying" those funds. I don't think we know how many Trillion$$$ are held in corp. cash here and overseas. Companies will figure a way to squander it or else some country will tax it like France is trying now.
    Second..is companies floating debt for stock buybacks and to pay dividends. Poor use of cash. This has been going on for years now and it has helped lead to where we are today.
    Stock buybacks do nothing for the economy, it only makes it easier to beat earnings and get bonuses for the penthouse.
    2 Oct 2012, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • LT: Greetings. My thoughts are they are waiting until they have a solid read on conditions and trend line after the election.
    5 Oct 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • I know they can hire, but will they? No doubt in my mind they have not hired intentionally.

     

    I think they will always keep too much cash. It's easier to manipulate earnings and get away with it. I just feel (a big IMO) that they are playing a dangerous game with the current tax situation worldwide.
    They could be relieved of a bunch of it overnight with the right conditions. Look at France.
    5 Oct 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • That's why it's safely sequestered in the Caymans or elsewhere.
    5 Oct 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • They are also providing trial data in Nov. on the oral Hep C drugs and more.

     

    Oct 2 (Reuters) - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc :
    * Lazard raises Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc price target to $75 from
    $57; rating buy
    2 Oct 2012, 06:57 AM Reply Like
  • Bio-Tech looks to benefit from new incentive: see next post

     

    NEW YORK, NY -- (Marketwire) -- 10/02/12 -- The Biotechnology Industry has seen increased investor interest in 2012 as it continues to impress with strong gains. The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB) has gained over 35 percent this year, more than double the S&P 500 Index's gain of 15 percent. New legislation, increased mergers & acquisition activity as a result of major patent expirations have all been contributing factors to the industry's rapid rise in 2012. Five Star Equities examines the outlook for companies in the Biotech Industry and provides equity research on Celsion Corporation (NASDAQ: http://bit.ly/WdwB2v) and Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: http://bit.ly/VaP3uC).
    2 Oct 2012, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • the rest of the above post:

     

    The Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) has recently praised the introduction of the High Technology Small Business Research Incentives Act. The new legislation would allow investors of joint The venture R&D projects to utilize the losses and tax credits.

     

    "Through the tax code, Congress historically has provided opportunities that encourage private investment in pre-revenue, R&D-intensive companies. The early growth of the biotech industry in the 1980s was due in part to the ability of investors to support projects aimed at finding new cures and treatments through similar joint ventures. This legislation will help spur greater private investment in biotech and other R&D intensive industries," BIO's President and CEO Jim Greenwood said in a statement.
    2 Oct 2012, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • Zongenix and 3 other bio's with catalysts soon:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    2 Oct 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • "Is Biotech Getting Too Frothy? Investor Sentiment Suggests Irrational Exuberance"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    2 Oct 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » From: InPlay - Cleveland Biolabs (CBLI) and Incuron announced that curaxin CBL0102 has been granted Orphan Drug status by the U.S. FDA for treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma.

     

    A multi-center Phase I trial of CBL0102 is ongoing in the Russian Federation in patients with liver metastases of solid tumors of epithelial origin, or primary advanced hepatic carcinoma for which standard therapy has failed or does not exist.
    2 Oct 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • (NVAX): "Novavax Initiates Phase 2 Clinical Trial of RSV Vaccine Candidate"

     

    This is the one announced to be conducted with the PATH partnership recently.

     

    http://bit.ly/SNQQ2e

     

    HardToLove
    8 Oct 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • someone mentioned this a few days ago:

     

    10:07 AM OraSure (OSUR +5.3%) pops on news yesterday that the company has launched its OraQuick In-Home HIV test at U.S. retailers nationwide and online. The roll-out marks the first infectious disease test ever to be made available directly to consumers for in-home use. In tandem with the launch, the company is also collaborating with a high profile celebrity as part of an ongoing HIV awareness campaign. Details will be shared via a national media webcast at 3 PM EST today. [Healthcare, On the Move] Comment!
    10 Oct 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Yes I did, LT, and I decided to bid it goodbye this am. The reception to its new product launch has been muted at best since it dropped nearly 10% after its HIV kit announcement so today's 5% pop is not very impressive. I think long term it may have good potential -- but in this environment I'm plowing more into big pharma with good dividends right now. I will be watching OSUR's 4Q earnings for potential reassessment.
    mj
    10 Oct 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Here is definitely one to watch and put on your list, Cervical cancer in women from the Papillo virus is rampant and spreading each year with the more sexually active youth:
    http://bit.ly/SMzoQ8
    10 Oct 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Please go to the new Swine Flu AND Medical News Concentrator here:

     

    http://tinyurl.com/8af...
    16 Oct 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • 3:30 PM JMP Securities analyst Lisa Bayko says the rally in BioCryst Pharma (BCRX +10%) today on the China/Permivir news is overdone. She points out that BCRX has no patent in China for IV Peramivir, hasn't been involved in any drug approval, and "won't receive economics from use there." BCRX appears to agree. saying it doesn't even have a partner or any in-country operations in the region. Comment! [Healthcare, On the Move]
    8 Apr 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Here is an informative article on BCRX Peramivir drug.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    8 Apr 2013, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • Is new bird flu resistant to Tamiflu (not much info, but a hint that some strains may be)
    Roche revenue up 5% this qtr. with Tamiflu up 85%
    http://bloom.bg/14ZFkMv
    11 Apr 2013, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • China bird flu cases may be double what's reported due to some with minor less severe cases. But the international specialists find no evidence of human to human transmission:

     

    http://bloom.bg/1090qQU
    22 Apr 2013, 07:57 AM Reply Like
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