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  • Swine Flu News Concentrator September 23 to November 11 209 comments
    Sep 23, 2010 10:19 AM
    Explanation:

    I will post Swine-Flu and related articles under this heading.  The top of the instablog will contain my current months key links  preceded with a one or two liner that explains the link.  A more complete summary of the link will be in the comments area.  At the bottom of the Instablog we have definition of terms, a summary of Swine Flu / vaccine investment plays, the 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map, Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu, and Memory Alpha which contains links to previous news concentrators and authors articles on the subject.

    I will be backing this up as well.
    Last backup:  None yet

    _____________________

    Update History:
    Added definition of Reassortment
    Added definiton of R0 (R Naught)
    Added Overview of H1N1 / Categories of Vaccine Investment Plays Added Memory Alpha
    Added Link to Google's Swine Flu Infection Map
    Added Red Cross Tips for Dealing With The Flu
    Added definition of EUA and PREP act
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into two parts for October
    Broke Swine Flu Concentrator into three parts for October
    Added Swine Flu Concentrator November Part 1
    Bolded References to Older Swine Flu Concentrators in Memory Alpha
    Expanded the list of stocks discussed in the tags
    Alphabetized stocks in the tags
    Updated the play by stock list
    Added a table that contains the web site addresses for the companies discussed
    Moved links over one month old to the new Memory Alpha Reference Library
    Added definitions of Clinical Trials and Protocol.
    Corrected Roche stock symbol in the web site table
    _____________________
    Last Swine Flu News Concentrator Links:

    Swine Flu News Concentrator June 14 to September 23 (2010)

    http://tinyurl.com/294bzc6

    Swine Flu News Concentrator April 8 to June 14
    tinyurl.com/25lqvfx

    Swine Flu News Concentrator (March 13 - April 8)
    tinyurl.com/y8w7mgy


    Swine Flu News Concentrator (February 12 - March 13)
    tinyurl.com/ykba7dl

    Swine Flu News Concentrator January 25 to February 12
    http://preview.tinyurl.com/yjccho4


    ___________________
    Some Definitions:

    What is Reassortment

    When two different virus strains infect the same host, they often exchange genes, a process known as reassortment.

    A significant number of experts are concerned that as H5N1 (Avian Flu) spreads more widely and infects more people, it will come across more hosts who are also carrying human flu viruses. This increases the likelihood of a new strain emerging that has the severity of the bird flu virus and the infection rate of the swine flu virus, leading to a new global pandemic with much deadlier consequences than the one we are experiencing at the moment.


    What is R naught (R 0)


    How many people the average infected person infects is called the basic reproductive number, or R0 (pronounced "R naught").

    Measles, which is probably mankind's most contagious infection, has an R0 of about 18. Polio's number is about 6; severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) about 5. For seasonal flu strains, the R0 is about 1.2, and for pandemic strains it is rarely higher than 2. For the novel H1N1 strain, it's about 1.6. What this low R0 means is that flu outbreaks are always teetering on the verge of having their myriad chains of transmission broken by people who get infected but don't pass the virus to anyone else.

    Swine Flu - Novel H1N1 flu, popularly known as swine flu, is a respiratory infection caused by an influenza virus first recognized in spring 2009. The new virus, which is officially called swine influenza A (H1N1), contains genetic material from human, swine and avian flu viruses. (By Mayo Clinic staff)

    Pandemic - The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people.

    A World Health Organization phase 6 pandemic indicates that influenza due to the novel H1N1 swine flu is occurring in multiple countries around the world and that human infection is widespread. The classification does not reflect the severity of individual infections.

    Cytokine Storm -
    When our body detects foreign micro-organisms indicating an infection, our body might respond by over-protecting the site of infection. The body may race so many antibodies to the infection site that they collect in what is known as a cytokine storm.

    A cytokine storm, or "Hypercytokinemia" is a potentially fatal immune reaction consisting of a positive feedback loop between cytokines and immune cells.
    www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-st...

    A positive feedback loop means that as something increases, that increase stimulates further growth.

    What makes younger people more susceptible to H1N1 is that their “vigorous immune systems pour out antibodies to attack the new virus. That can inflame lung cells until they leak fluid, which can overwhelm the lungs.

    This vulnerability in the young is reminiscent of the Spanish flu of 1918. That strain of flu also struck mostly healthy young adults.

    Pulmonary Embolism - Occurs when a blood clot forms in an arm or leg breaks free and enters the lungs where it is too large to pass through the small vessels of the lungs and forms a blockage. This stops blood from flowing into an area of the lung, and the part of the lung dies because it does not receive oxygen.
    medicalnewstoday.com/articles/153796.php

    What is an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?
    An EUA may be issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow either the use of an unapproved medical product or an unapproved use of an approved medical product during certain types of emergencies with specified agents.

    What is the PREP Act?
    The PREP Act authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (“Secretary”) to issue a declaration (“PREP Act declaration”) that provides immunity from tort liability (except for willfull misconduct) for claims of loss caused, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from administration or use of countermeasures to diseases, threats and conditions determined by the Secretary to constitute a present, or credible risk of a future public health emergency to entities and individuals involved in the development, manufacture, testing, distribution, administration, and use of such countermeasures.

    The PREP Act also authorizes an emergency fund in the United States Treasury to provide compensation for injuries directly caused by administration or use of a countermeasure covered by the Secretary’s declaration. While no funds have been appropriated for this purpose, if funds are appropriated, compensation may then be available for medical benefits, lost wages and death benefits to individuals for specified injuries.
    cdc.gov/h1n1flu/eua/qa.htm

    What are Clinical Trials:
    Clinical trials, also known as clinical studies, are research studies in which scientists and doctors test new drugs and treatments to see if they will improve health. Many of today's treatments for cancer are based on the results of past clinical trials. Because of progress made through clinical trials, many people treated for cancer are now living longer.

    Clinical trials are divided into four phases.
    Phase 1 trials: These trials are the first time a new drug or treatment is given to humans. They are normally carried out in a small number of volunteers (typically 6-20 people) who may include healthy volunteers or patients with the disease for which the product is intended as a treatment in order to find out how safe the treatment is. They also look at how a new drug should be given (by mouth, injected into muscle or the bloodstream, etc.), how often and at what dose. Phase 1 trials can also involve patients for whom standard therapies have failed and for whom no other therapies are available.

    Phase 2 trials: These trials involve larger numbers of people (typically 12 - 50). Phase 2 trials continue to look at safety of the therapy but also test how well the new drug or treatment works in patients with different disease types.

    Phase 3 trials: These are large studies (100+ people) that look at how well a new drug or treatment works in comparison to current therapies to see which treatment is better. Those taking part are usually divided into two treatment groups: standard treatment versus new treatment.

    Phase 4 trials: These trials are usually carried out after the drug or treatment has been approved by the FDA and is readily available for use in the general patient population. The purpose of Phase 4 trials is to continue to study the effects of the drug or treatment on different populations and to look for side effects associated with long-term use.
    Back to Top

    What is a Protocol:
    Clinical trials use written guidelines called protocols. The protocol explains what the trial hopes to accomplish, how the trial will be carried out, and why each part of the trial is necessary. For example, the protocol includes:

        * The reason for doing the trial
        * How many people will be in the trial
        * Who is eligible to take part in the trial
        * What study drugs participants will need to take
        * What medical tests participants will have and how often
        * What information will be gathered

    Every doctor or research center that takes part in the trial uses the same protocol. This makes sure that patients are treated identically no matter where they are receiving treatment, and that information from all the centers taking part can be combined and compared.

    Why Slow Production for Traditionally Produced (chicken eggs) Swine Flu Vaccine:
    One dose of swine flu vaccine for every two eggs, compared with two doses of
    seasonal flu vaccine per egg

    Sorry if the link does not work... it appears the Boston Globe newspaper appears to be playing games with link addresses... Just copy the link, and Google it.

    http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2009/10/22/quest_for_swine_flu_vaccine_giving_some_firms_a_boost/

    _____________________
    Brief Overview of Categories of H1N1/ Vaccine Investment Plays:

    I - Vaccines / Prevention
    1) Production Method / Capacity plays (NASDAQ:NVAX) (NASDAQ:VICL) (NYSE:NVS) (NASDAQ:INO)
    2) Nationalistic / Population Size Play (SVA - China) (NVAX - India)
    3) Injection / Vaccine support services (syringes etc.) (NYSE:BAX) (NYSE:BDX)
    4) Outsourced production plays
    5) Bio -Defence (MDCGF - France)
    6) Anti-Mutation / Pan-Influenza Play (NYSEMKT:CVM) (NYSEMKT:NNVC) (INO)
    7) Universal Flu Vaccine Play (INO)

    II - Treatment After Infection Occurs:
    1) Dealing with severe lung infections (Fludase® (DAS181)) (NYSE:CBM) (OTCQB:AEMD)
    2) ICU treatments (NASDAQ:BCRX) (NYSE:GSK) (NYSE:ROG)
    III - Population Avoidance:
    1) masks/ disinfectants… Surgical masks are good enough (NYSEMKT:APT) (NYSE:MMM) (NYSE:CLX) (NYSE:ECL) (OTCQB:PURE)

    IV - Testing do you have it? (NASDAQ:GPRO)
    1) Test kits - (NYSE:DGX)

    V - Merger / Acquisitions / Licensing (VICL) (NVAX)
    _____________________
    Sorry this is still a graphic instead of a table. I played with the table tool, but its a
    PITA to work with.

    Swine Flu Companies Discussed and Their Web Sites


    _____________________
    Swine Flu Hits Stuffed Animal World:



    2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map:
    The Link is from DoubleGuns
    flutracker.rhizalabs.com/

    I am not too happy with any of the outbreak maps. They all make the same mistake, they try to show the worlds data on one chart. This makes them SLOW.
    I will keep looking for one that works faster.
    _____________________

    Red Cross Tips For Dealing With The Flu:

    IF YOU ARE ILL -
    * Stay in a room separate from common areas of the home and avoid contact with others as much as possible.

    * Stay at home for at least 24 hours after their fever is gone without using medicine to reduce the fever.

    * Get lots of rest and drink plenty of fluids.

    * Consider wearing a facemask, if available and tolerable, when sharing common spaces with household members. (ed - surgical masks ok).

    * Check with your healthcare provider about whether to take antiviral medication, or if fever persists, whether antibiotics are needed.

    WHEN CARING FOR SOMEONE WHO HAS THE FLU -
    *Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces that everyone touches.

    * Use detergent and very hot water to do dishes and wash clothes. It's okay to wash everyone's dishes and clothes together. Wash your hands after handling dirty laundry.

    * Designate only one adult as the caregiver. People at increased risk of severe illness from the flu should not be caregivers.

    * Although not mentioned by the Red Cross, the caregiver should probably ware a surgical mask as well when entering the sick room.

    * Deal with crisis situations calmly and confidently to give the best support to the person being cared for.
    _____________________

    MayoClinic.com Provides Credible, Up-to-Date Information And Decision-Support Tools For Flu Season

    Click here to link to the Mayo tool:
    www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-symptoms/F...

    _____________________
    Suggeted Protocol For Schools To Decide When Flu Should Trigger A Shutdown
    www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/169984.php

    After comparing more than two dozen possible scenarios for closing a school, the analysis suggested three optimal scenarios:

    1. A single-day influenza-related absentee rate of 5 percent

    2. Absenteeism of 4 percent or more on two consecutive days

    3. Absenteeism of 3 percent or more on three consecutive days



    Disclosure: NVAX, NNVC, SVA, VICL (sometimes trading, sometimes holding)
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Comments (209)
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  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6010) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment in the Last Swine Flu Concentrator

     

    From: tripleblack
    I'm very happy with the (VICL) trade. I may take some profits this afternoon, but I intend to keep the remainder as a core holding.
    tinyurl.com/294bzc6
    23 Sep 2010, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the new concentrator, Mr. User, sir.

     

    (VICL) is up over 4% now, and their volume is still highly elevated. I took profits, and have a nice, core holding to work from.
    23 Sep 2010, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (VICL): Public stock offering - down 6+% right now.

     

    ir.vical.com/releasede...

     

    HardToLove
    23 Sep 2010, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6010) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Unfortunately, here is another stick in the eye with respect to VICL

     

    SAN DIEGO, Sept. 23, 2010 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Vical Incorporated (Nasdaq:VICL - News) today announced that it is offering to sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering. Jefferies & Company, Inc. is acting as sole book-running manager in the offering, Stifel Nicolaus Weisel is acting as co-lead manager for the offering and Canaccord Genuity Inc. is acting as co-manager for the offering. The offering is subject to market conditions, and there can be no assurance as to whether or when the offering may be completed, or as to the actual size or terms of the offering. tinyurl.com/26e8ckx

     

    VICL is down over 14% after hours on the news….
    23 Sep 2010, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    Shoot. Glad I sold off a bunch and took profits today. I was actually thinking there at the end when it bounced to end the day up almost 10% that I made a mistake cashing in earlier...

     

    Current AH is down 12.20%, at $2.52. I'm in at $2.45, so we'll just see how it absorbs this new hit in the morning.

     

    Odd timing, though. I'm wondering what they plan to do with the money at this junction. Could be they are going to shake up the board room some, and need traveling money. I'm wondering about their deal with Sanofi, too...

     

    Lawsuit coming?

     

    Could be headaches of many different kinds. That announcement is lacking in specifics, too.
    23 Sep 2010, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6010) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I was wondering about the timing and the lack of details on the public offering as well… it's almost as if they are trying to drive the price down… that would have the effect of lowering the price on the stock in the public offering…. Who would profit from that?
    23 Sep 2010, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    Shorts would benefit.

     

    I am still thinking that they are in a corner and doing what they must. The utter failure of the stage III trial might have caused a schism with their major partner, and they could be doing damage control to keep the company intact. There could be problems downstream of that event (if their erstwhile partner sues them for fraud, for instance) that could create this sort of shockwave. Egos might have been bruised and golden parachutes deployed...

     

    Its all just speculation at this point. Perhaps we will learn more tomorrow. I will point out that AH numbers are often much more extreme than what works in the light of the morning sun.
    23 Sep 2010, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    AH prices for (VICL) have already moderated to being down about 10%, at $2.57.

     

    The first reaction AH is often the most extreme.
    23 Sep 2010, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    I never got in to (VICL) though I hold a fair amount of (NVAX). I'm thinking I will stay on the side lines here unless the price drops below $2.45. With flu season kicking off we should be seeing some movement in both. BTW this flu season is expected to be relatively mild.
    23 Sep 2010, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    NVAX should start picking up in October. Some upcoming events:

     

    - Mexico safety results are due, am expecting to see them in October;

     

    - Possible Mexico approval, possible order (seems more likely since NVAX/PFE/Wyeth recently updated the royalty agreement for Mexico H1N1-related sales); Avimex is ready to start selling once Mexico gov't approval is granted. Labeling is already completed;

     

    - Elderly results are due shortly as well - I believe we'll see them by end of Oct. at the latest;

     

    - BARDA award in Q4; Gov't fiscal year begins Oct.1, and I'm expecting to see an announcement in October but nobody knows for sure if/when we'll see it. I am as convinced as ever that NVAX will get something from this and expect it will be enough to cover Phase 3 testing at a minimum;

     

    - RSV IND announcement/Phase 1 trial initiation in Q4. Good news is this product has a relatively short development/testing timeframe. Could see results in 1H11 - from Aug. 6 conference call: <Q – William Tanner>: And that would be in the – maybe the first half of next year?
    <A – Rahul Singhvi>: Yeah. I think we – depending on when we begin the trial, the data will start rolling in. And as you know, these are fairly quick trials.

     

    - Flu season is about to start, though it's expected to be relatively mild this year. H1N1 is still going around, especially in foreign countries. May start seeing some flu/H1N1 stories in the headlines shortly which would bring attention to our sector;

     

    I have a hard time finding a stock better positioned for a near-term run-up than NVAX, but as always, it's elusive and "just around the corner..." Anyway, a lot of exciting things could & should be announced in Q410.
    24 Sep 2010, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6010) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » VICL Prices public offering of 15 mln shares common stock at $2.25 shareBriefing.com (Fri 9:01AM EDT)

     

    Of course, the stock price will drop to the offering price….
    24 Sep 2010, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    We'll need to take a look at short activity over the next couple of months - see if your thesis seems to hold up.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Sep 2010, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    I sold off remainder of (VICL) early this morning (couldn't post comments this morning on SA for some reason).

     

    Message streams about company all over the internet are furious. It would appear that Vical has not been answering their phone for the last few days, and queries to investor services are a waste of time.

     

    This looks like they are indifferent to retail investors, and are in fact planting a stake in its heart and sowing salt in the fields.

     

    Its off my list and I strongly suggest others be cautious with this company, now and in the future.
    24 Sep 2010, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Sorry to hear that. Hope you were light on it.

     

    I was saved by my single-mindedness. I liked the (NVAX) technology and stuff I read back when I compared the too and so just invested in that. And I started to do a small (VICL) several times, but always waited , for some reason.

     

    Ah, luck of the (part) Irish, I guess.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Sep 2010, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    I took heavy profits near the peak yesterday. When I dumped the rest this morning, it was only about a dime less than I bought it for. I came out almost even with the board.

     

    But this sort of behavior toward stockholders is just intolerable. I don't do business with companies that act like this.

     

    The more I'm thinking about it, I think management has made a series of major blunders:

     

    1. Palmed a bad product off on their French partners. When it bombed, they both took a hit, and I expect Sanofi has some sharp lawyers crawling all over their contracts with Vical about now.

     

    2. In expectation of the disaster, Vical's bosses signed a quiet deal to open their shelf and issue 15million shares at $2.25.

     

    3. If (as I suspect) it was presubscribed for that price, there was never any attention paid to the existing shareholders, nor did they care. Loyal long time shareholders, already reeling from the recent major drop in the value of the stock, but gamely hanging on and perhaps even adding to their store of stock during the downturn, have been materially damaged. I will be shocked if several class action lawsuits are not launched very soon, after which this could bet messy.
    24 Sep 2010, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    " I will be shocked if several class action lawsuits are not launched very soon, after which this could bet messy".

     

    Almost a certainty, I think.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Sep 2010, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Continuing to hold (NVAX) and never did get into (VICL) because I was more interested in developing the NVAX position than opening one in VICL.
    28 Sep 2010, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): NOVAVAX to Present at BIO Investor Forum

     

    10/6/2010 @ 13:00

     

    "... will provide a company overview, outline its competitive position and characterize Novavax's outlook".

     

    www.prnewswire.com/new...

     

    HardToLove
    29 Sep 2010, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    I have been buying NVAX $4 April calls for $0.14 each yesterday & today. They look awfully cheap at that price considering the news we could get between now & then. Cheap, cheap, cheap with good upside potential imo.
    29 Sep 2010, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    I tend to agree. Am looking at the same thing.
    29 Sep 2010, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    I'm of the same mind. The only downside risk I see is if the market *finally* has a significant correction and drags NVAX with it. But I think if the BARDA contract comes to fruition or flu season is of a nature that favors the NVAX capabilities, and we have no nasty surprises on quarterly reporting, the price could be supported by these catalysts even if market is trying to drag it down.

     

    Alternately, sell puts to collect a premium with a strike price with which you are comfortable and you might get some shares cheap *and* collect a premium. Downside is capital is "allocated" and tied up through the period.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Sep 2010, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    The 3 key events I am looking for in the next 6 months (before these calls expire) are BARDA, the final Mexico 6-month safety results being announced and leading to Mexico approval, and the IND/trial initiation for RSV.

     

    We could see an international partnership announced as well once BARDA is in hand, but I'm not counting on that at all. A couple of acquisitions have also occurred in the industry relatively recently, but again am not factoring that possiblity in either.

     

    I think each of these 3 key events will happen within 6 months and will support a share price of at least $4-$5, but hopefully start the share price trending higher. My main concern is that the shorts will continue to control the share price, regardless of good news. Don't know how they do it, but they always seem to manage.

     

    Anyway, just my thoughts at this point.
    29 Sep 2010, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Presuming they are not naked shorts, any stock held in street name can be lent out by the broker holding them, I think. They collect revenue from loaning out your shares to folks who will harm you by driving the stock price downward.

     

    With the cost of funds so very low now, margin and interest expense is so cheap that shorting is *very* lucrative.

     

    I believe that institutional holders are also big lenders of shares.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Sep 2010, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    We could all benefit from regulations prohibiting brokerages from lending out shares they don't own. That would facilitate them to buy their own shares to participate in that type of activity. Just as they can no longer (Theoretically) trade with depositor monies. Too much to ask for I guess. I'm looking at adding to my position in (NVAX) as well.
    30 Sep 2010, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6010) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Bristol-Myers' Delayed Steal
    Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMY) $735 million buyout of ZymoGenetics (ZGEN) is looking a little less shocking after ZymoGenetics announced encouraging clinical trial results for its melanoma -- skin cancer -- treatment interleukin 21 (IL-21).

     

    In the phase 2 trial, IL-21 produced a median survival of 12.4 months. The trial didn't have a control group, but that sure looks pretty good for stage 4 melanoma patients. By comparison, Bristol-Myers' own ipilimumab produced survival of 10.1 months compared to a control group that survived just 6.4 months. It's not a perfect comparison since different trials include and exclude different patient types, but the results certainly seem positive given the prospects for stage 4 patients.

     

    The small size and the lack of a control means Bristol-Myers will likely have to run a phase 3 trial with a placebo control to get IL-21 approved. That would put it behind ipilmumap and (VICL), which expects phase 3 data for its melanoma treatment Allovectin-7 in the middle of next year, but there's plenty of room in the melanoma space given the current lack of options. Who knows, maybe ipilimumab and IL-21 could be combined to produce survival results that trumps either of the two individually.
    tinyurl.com/2bsslw7
    _______________________
    VICL is currently very close to its public offering price of $2.25. Having a stock drop to a new public offering price appears to be a common occurrence.... When the (SNY) drug failed, it very likely reduced needed cash flow, and I suspect that was the reason for that sudden public offering - the old rock and a hard place....

     

    My Play:
    I took profits on VICL at about $3.80... I bought back big at $2.50, and I will be buying a few thousand more shares at the $2.25 price. The stock is a target for the shorts... so don't expect a slow trend up since that will be countered by short activity.... I plan to wait for a pop, take profits, and wait for the shorts to do their thing, then re-enter...
    3 Oct 2010, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Not sure if this was posted some time ago, but here is a link to the Dawson James report (from June) on NVAX. I just re-read it today, while waiting, waiting.....anyway, some really interesting stuff in here for those who may not have seen this previously. Dawson's 18-month target price is really low I believe, and the writer says they are being very conservative in the revenue estimates and other potential drivers as well, so take it for what it's worth.

     

    Also, someone on the yahoo boards said the final Mexico safety results are to be reported in November (I was thinking they were due this month). Hopefully we'll see them soon, but may not be until next month. Just an fyi.

     

    www.dawsonjames.com/po...
    6 Oct 2010, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the link! That document seems to provide a compendium of all we've observed over time. This is very convenient for review when doing periodic due diligence before deciding on position going forward.

     

    I would have also expected October results from Mexico and also from BARDA. However, the lack of seeing those this early into the new fiscal cycle in the U.S. does not disturb me at all. It takes time for folks to decide how to distribute all the slush among the competing candidates.

     

    Good work on finding and sharing the document!

     

    HardToLove
    6 Oct 2010, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6010) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi Mitshu35 Those Mexican results appear to be late. I wonder if that has something to do with the removal of the person that was responsible for setting up the trial several months ago.

     

    I am looking to add to my NVAX position at $2.10.
    6 Oct 2010, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Mitshu, for the info!

     

    And sorry for the vermin currently infesting our blog - don't think that its a reflection of our view of your efforts!
    6 Oct 2010, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Ditto! Your efforts are much appreciated. Going in to flu season I would have expected more information from (NVAX) and their partners. Last I heard they were putting their new facility in to full operation.
    6 Oct 2010, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Mitsu et al,

     

    From page 15 of the link Mitsu provided, we see the following.
    ================
    ... we believe Novavax’ initial near-term revenue opportunities could be realized from the receipt of a contract from BARDA valued between $25-$100 MM. Our model assumes receipt of a $25 MM award in 4Q10. We believe there is upside to our forecasts as Novavax potentially could also realize additional near-term revenue opportunities of similar value from contracts established with other government health agencies around the world
    ================

     

    The "4Q10" fits in with my estimation earlier in the year that a new fiscal year would bring the budget available for BARDA to begin awarding contracts. So, this part is (apparently) not "late" and we only have the Mexico results running "late", re our expectations or hopes.

     

    From that same page, "Figure 8", we see that the Mexico results are expected 2H10. So for the professionals issuing the report, the Mexico results are not yet "late" either. Only us amateurs are impatient.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Oct 2010, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Greetings. That could get sticky since we had no budget for fiscal 2010 which incidentally is the first time that has happened since 1974. I'm sure that sending a budget to the POTUS will be a priority for the House Republicans should the gain control of the House. However that budget will be looking to trim expenses and the BARDA could fall victim to that effort. I hope not as it would adversely affect (NVAX) and those of us holding that stock.
    6 Oct 2010, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    3 vaccine grants handed out today - can't be much longer for NVAX to get one:

     

    Oct 7 (Reuters) - The federal government announced three contracts worth up to $68 million on Thursday to make three new vaccines against dengue fever and anthrax.

     

    www.reuters.com/articl...
    7 Oct 2010, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Another BARDA award granted today. This one is large: $500 million, potential of $2.8 Billion. Wow.

     

    Company's stock up 38%.

     

    www.marketwatch.com/st...
    13 Oct 2010, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6010) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » [October 7] Vical announces it has agreed to manufacture plasmid DNA vaccines against HIV under a $2.4 million contract with the IPPOX Foundation (VICL)

     

    I smell a pop :-)
    7 Oct 2010, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (VICL): I was on te road and missed this.

     

    Vical Updates TransVax(TM) CMV Vaccine Program at World Vaccine Congress

     

    ir.vical.com/releasede...

     

    ... presenting detailed results from the company's recently completed Phase 2 trial of its TransVax™ therapeutic vaccine designed to control reactivation of cytomegalovirus (CMV) in transplant patients. Dr. Rolland is scheduled to present at 5:40 p.m. CEST today at the World Vaccine Congress (Lyon, France, October 4 – 7)

     

    HardToLove
    7 Oct 2010, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Vical to Manufacture DNA Vaccines for Advanced Development by HIV Consortium

     

    ir.vical.com/releasede...

     

    ... agreed to manufacture plasmid DNA (pDNA) vaccines against HIV under a $2.4 million contract with the IPPOX Foundation, a collaborating institution for the Poxvirus Vaccine Regimen Design (PVRD) led by the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (CHUV) under the auspices of the Collaboration for AIDS Vaccine Discovery (CAVD).

     

    HardToLove
    7 Oct 2010, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    I wonder what Trolls don't like about vaccines? Some one should look into vaccinating this site against Trolls. LOL.
    7 Oct 2010, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Catching a bid today and had some early signs a couple days ago. today, +3.57% right now (10:15 edt).

     

    Anybody have a clue as to why?

     

    HardToLove
    13 Oct 2010, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    I believe the company has been selling a lot of shares from that huge shelf registration they announced earlier this year (they could sell up to $25M in shares I believe). Around 3:30 yesterday, the selling stopped suddenly...there was a large seller all day (as there had been for some time) and all of a sudden their shares were gone. Speculating that they were selling for NVAX and may have finally reached the cap. Selling had been relentless for a long time which is why we just got pinned to right around the $2.20 level for so long.

     

    Just to add to this. If this is the case that NVAX has been selling shares lately, I believe this would be to raise funds to finance the RSV trials. We will hopefully see the IND announcement for RSV this quarter, and with the cash in the bank, the testing can begin immediately. The BARDA award would be for H1N1-related expenses only and cannot be used for RSV, so NVAX would have to raise that cash seperately. Again, just speculation.
    13 Oct 2010, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Aha Mits! You reminded me I hadn't checked shorts for a while. Maybe the fairly consistent decrease in short as days to cover rose, due to reduced dauily volume, has also helped out here?

     

    Stl Dt Short Int.. % Chg. Av Dly Vol .Days 2 Cvr
    09/30 ..9,747,429 .(5.22) .612,970 .....15.90
    09/15 .10,284,003 .(3.21) .641,741 .....16.03
    08/31 .10,625,298 ...3.59 .537,586 .....19.76
    08/13 .10,256,691 .(5.40) .594,426 .....17.25
    07/30 .10,842,531 .(5.52) .984,817 .....11.01
    07/15 .11,476,083 .(5.08) .820,111 .....13.99
    06/30 .12,090,094 .(0.34) .661,204 .....18.28
    06/15 .12,131,120 ...2.91 .864,477 .....14.03

     

    HardToLove
    13 Oct 2010, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I was thinking about this last night. If I'm right about nvax selling shares, they have basically been a huge help to the shorts in allowing them to easily cover at a low price while they were selling. Ugh, I hate shorts...they always find an easy way out. Anyway, I think nvax stock price is on it's way back up.

     

    I bought a chunk of April $4 call options 2 days ago for 18 cents. Still really cheap but not much longer I think/hope.

     

    Luck to all longs!
    13 Oct 2010, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Just took a look at the daily chart. WOW! Trading above 200 day SMA, already exceeded 10 average volume, all technical indicators positive.

     

    Maybe a run starting or just an effect of options expiration week. Anyway, a move up of large unusual magnitude is often followed by a pull back. The way to play it might be selling some $2 January options (because they have a decent premium and a large delta) for $0.20 or so and buy them back when a pull back occurs.

     

    I took a look at some puts, but they look too expensive to me.

     

    Of course, "timing is everything" and your entry price may not make this an acceptable risk if you think a continued move up for a while is in place. If you think a short-term continued up move is working, wait to sell the calls to get a better price.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Oct 2010, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): P.S. Resistance @ $2.42 & then $2.47 & volume above 10 day average ~+20%.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Oct 2010, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Correction, Sell options for $0.60 or so, $0.20 was for the $3 option.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Oct 2010, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    Mits and HTL: Great insights! Thanks. Timing of the "closing" of the shelf sales is intriguing with the potentially imminent BARDA award.
    13 Oct 2010, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    And the final Mexico safety results. I think this could be a huge event in addition to BARDA if it leads to a quick approval from Mexico's gov't. They did promise expedited review, so hopefully once final results are in, they will stamp approved and we will have our first revenue-generating product on the market! I am really impressed with the nvax-Avimex partnership decision in Mexico.
    13 Oct 2010, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): I think I found the source of today's push up. King sold. Major holders in that also big holders in NVAX. Folks are betting that NVAX is on the block too.

     

    messages.finance.yahoo...

     

    HardToLove
    13 Oct 2010, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Saw that too. Wellington and Black Rock. Just a matter of time on nvax, as frustrating as this stock has been over the past 12-18 months, pay-day may be relatively close. If we can just get our first product across the finish line.....
    13 Oct 2010, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    Here's a list of institutional holders of (NVAX):

     

    finance.yahoo.com/q/mh...

     

    I just added to my position, the amount about what I'm up today.
    13 Oct 2010, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    I'm sitting on a lot of (NVAX). Normally I would be taking profits right now, but I'm standing pat.
    13 Oct 2010, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6010) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Me too....
    13 Oct 2010, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    From the Motley Fool-NVAX Shares popped, What you need to know: It says it popped on no news!
    www.fool.com/investing...
    13 Oct 2010, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    LOL, so, the news is that there IS no news, and its going up "Just because".

     

    Thanks to the Fools for once again stating the obvious in the most authoritarian manner possible!

     

    LOL, but you still have to enjoy reading their stuff.
    13 Oct 2010, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    While I do enjoy some of their stuff and some of it is even investable I've found that Renegades have one or more up on Fools. LOL
    13 Oct 2010, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): I couldn't get bites for $2 strike for Jan @ the price I wanted. Mutter, mumble, O.K. Sold $3 Jan strikes for $0.20. Will need bigger moves or more time to close at a profit (delta only 27%) or, ...

     

    They'll be called away Jan 22 at a nice profit, but maybe less than I could've made.

     

    I'll use the collected premiums to buy more on the dips.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Oct 2010, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    H.T. - what do you think of buying Jan $4 calls for .10? I think if/when we get BARDA news, we'll go to at least $4. I'm thinking of buying these calls today but wanted to see what you might think of them?
    Thanks.
    14 Oct 2010, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Generally, I would rather sell than buy any instrument which has time-decay. However, if you consider it "gambling money" and properly assess your risk/reward tolerance, it sounds inexpensive enough.

     

    Keep in mind the extra fees. SEC fees, contract fees, ... These can substantially increase your break-even on small number of contracts. I mention this because *often* you'll do better closing out your positions by selling (if you went long) or buying back (if you went short) than exercising.

     

    Part of your risk: sentiment risk. A BARDA contract may be smaller than folks hoped for and adversely affect the underlying price. More risk: quarterly reporting disappointment. More risk: additional share issuance - dilution gives the shorts additional opportunity to hammer. More risk: sector rotation out of bio-pharma if market sentiment changes. More risk: *simple* options use requires that you are right in direction, time-frame and magnitude. Are any of us that good right now, in this manipulated and poorly-policed market?

     

    Summation: IMO, if you have a position, sell the calls at a price you are comfortable with (accepting that you may lose some of the upside potential) that yields a profit (or acceptable loss) and take in the premiums, which are then profit or a reduced basis for your share cost.

     

    This mitigates a lot of the risks I mention at the sacrifice of some loss of upside by turning those negatives into positives for your position. Premiums can be used to buy more shares on a dip - essentially you get some for "free". Or when the dips come in the normal course of events, you can buy back at a profit.

     

    So, I like people to pay me, rather than I pay them in a market like we have right now.

     

    If you haven't used options before, visit the options industry council web site and read, read, read. They have good education stuff there. Also, use other resources you might find on the web.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2010, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    P.S. Cheap options may be telling you a lot about sentiment or may be just telling you a lot about a low volatility sentiment in the market. Substantially out-of-the-money options are really speculative - more akin to gambling.

     

    But they cater to the "cheap" in us.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2010, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the advise everyone. I ended up buying more April $4 calls instead of the $3 Jan calls. Doing spreads and selling calls etc is a little beyond me - I rarely do options and am not an expert on them...I will just take my chances buying what I understand! I'll scream if NVAX isn't at least $4 by April though...this has been dead $ for so long and so much potential news/progress is right in front of us.

     

    I see SIGA is having good follow through from yesterday's 50% move up after their BARDA award. I hope/expect to see the same on NVAX once we get the news. I think we had a good technical breakout yesterday on heavy volume and should see the stock move up soon.

     

    Anyway, thanks again.
    14 Oct 2010, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    SIGA is having another good follow-through day today.

     

    Sure hope we get similar action on NVAX with any BARDA news after all the waiting, waiting...

     

    I want to believe.
    I want to believe.
    I want to believe.
    15 Oct 2010, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    SIGA is now over $14 (up from $8.25 or so) on this BARDA award, and PIP is following suit. Unreal how much they have moved up without even taking a breather!

     

    Any thoughts on whether NVAX will see a similar move? I guess that really depends on the size of the award. The SIGA one just seems unusually large when compared to other recent grants (that happened before the new fiscal year). Maybe we'll see a really healthy amount as well.

     

    I'm sure not selling a share before the news, but if the award is pending final Mexico safety results, we probably have another month to go. I don't think this is the case, but could be.

     

    I want to believe.
    18 Oct 2010, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Mitsu maybe a spread would work? Buy the 3.5 and sell the 4.5--something like that...
    14 Oct 2010, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    I like your idea, OG.

     

    I'm afraid I am not "$4" bet upbeat, in general. Particularly in that time frame...

     

    But that's why its a gamble.

     

    LOL, oddly enough, that is the sort of thing I probably SHOULD be doing more often to hedge my overall sentiment...
    14 Oct 2010, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, in order to make any money you need to buy in the money or really close to it, and be prepared to exercise the options, convert it to stock, and then sell it. Otherwise it's going to be pennies at best. Not enough to warrant the commitment, imo. But, if you can sell an out of the money call, at least you are generating some offset for your out of pocket expense. Then, you have to sit on your hands and not disturb the spread. If you leg out, you open yourself up to additional fees and commissions, plus your risk changes at that point.
    Just a thought. I didn't look at it. I haven't sold options on NVAX in awhile, too thinly traded for my taste.
    14 Oct 2010, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Early indications of this season's flu activity?

     

    news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2...

     

    Potential severity is stated to be low, but this is just ahead of "hajj", so there may be some bias in the assessment.

     

    Hat tip to wallstreetjournalcom @ Yahoo! for this post.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2010, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Took a quick cursory look at some daily chart action.

     

    Noted several support points @ ~$2.35. However, the spike we saw often results in a "flag" which is the flag pole - the spike - followed by a downward trading channel for a while. This is considered a "bullish" formation indicating that a return to uptrend may follow. It should be supported by reducing volume as time passes, except for a possible spike on pattern confirmation (the second touch of resistance). If increasing volume is seen, this would be bearish.

     

    We might see this abbreviated by the support @ ~$2.35 if the highs move lower, resulting in a descending triangle. This would indicate that when price approached 2.35, an influx of buyers was seen at that price. This can be bearish as repeated forays to the low point may eventually exhaust the willing buyers at that level. This is exacerbated by the constantly dropping high, giving the potential buyers a signal that a lower price may be available if they are patient and signaling sellers that price strength is deteriorating and they should take profit now, rather than waiting for a move up.

     

    There's more to consider of course. But I just wanted to alert for a few things to watch for.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2010, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Just penetrated $2.29, now entered the $2.2x range I called for. Too early to move though - need to see what trend develops next week.

     

    I hate this waitingm knowing that some kind of press release may appear at any moment and make it blast off.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2010, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Current chart makes it look like it wants to continue lower, but a reversal could occur quickly if shorts or investors decide this is a good price.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2010, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Daily chart seems to support more downward action too.

     

    Should be trying to form the flag or banner - can't tell which yet or even if that's the pattern it will make.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2010, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    10/7/10 article excerpt:

     

    Influenza Vaccine Market Outlook 2010-2020

     

    The influenza vaccines market is one of the fastest-growing sectors of the global pharmaceutical industry, generating multi-billion dollar revenues currently. The re-emergence of influenza as a pandemic threat this decade has stimulated this market area greatly, with vaccines coming back to the fore in healthcare worldwide. Our new pharma report – Influenza Vaccine Market Outlook 2010-2020 – explains how that market area will develop and where the main commercial opportunities will lie. ( www.bharatbook.com/det... )The years from 2010 onwards will be marked by high sales of influenza vaccines. In particular, novel vaccines are expected to benefit a hard-pressed pharma industry. For healthcare providers, vaccines will continue to be a cost-effective means of disease prevention and reduction of overall healthcare costs. Unlike some other pharmaceutical products, influenza vaccines are equally important in both developed and developing nations.

     

    www.hotblogstoday.com/...

     

    I want to believe.
    15 Oct 2010, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): To report earnings 11/5 10:00 A.M.

     

    www.prnewswire.com/new...

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2010, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Early warning? Or just normal stuff?

     

    "The rapid spread of S188T remains a cause for concern"

     

    From rezoom2 @ Yahoo! (Hat Tip to 'im)

     

    messages.finance.yahoo...

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2010, 06:01 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Just an (off-topic) fyi to everyone...rec'd the following email from my former broker. I wasn't aware this reporting change was coming, but not surprised.
    ---
    On January 1, 2011, E*TRADE will enhance its existing tracking of gains and losses on securities bought and sold in your account and begin reporting such information on official IRS tax documents. This new "cost basis reporting" has arisen out of legislation passed by Congress in 2008, and is now required by brokerage firms.

     

    The following information will be reported to the IRS starting in the 2011 tax year, potentially saving you considerable time and effort as you prepare your taxes:

     

    Gross proceeds from sales
    Cost basis on securities sold, adjusted for wash sales and corporate actions
    Total gain or loss for each security
    Whether the gain or loss is long-term or short-term

     

    Reporting changes will be introduced on a phased-in schedule (by security type), and will apply only to securities acquired on or after the dates outlined in the table below. This schedule has been established by federal law.

     

    On This Date: E*TRADE Will Begin Cost Basis Reporting For:
    January 1, 2011 Stocks, including: Domestic and foreign stocks
    Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
    American Depository Receipts (ADRs)
    Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) that are not in a Regulated Investment Company (RIC) or connected with a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP)

     

    January 1, 2012 Stocks in Regulated Investment Companies (RICs)—for example, mutual funds and stocks acquired in connection with a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP).
    January 1, 2013 All other securities, including: Options
    Fixed income instruments
    Derivatives
    Debt instruments
    18 Oct 2010, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    Thanks!

     

    My comment would be...

     

    "...transaction taxes to follow".
    18 Oct 2010, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Mits!

     

    Along with TB's comment, mine would be "Less work for me"!

     

    TB: what's your take of the odds that the xact tax will get done, considering the anticipated power shift to occur after Nov. mid-terms theoretically work out as many expect? Will they be able to push that through with the big money players, quants, HFT trades, hedge funds, and brokers (that make money with "churn")... probably opposed to it?

     

    HardToLove
    18 Oct 2010, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    Hard to judge just now.

     

    A lot depends on how the proprotions of doctrinaire country club republicans vs conservative / tea party newcomers breaks down.

     

    The more right wing / tea party the individual, the more free market oriented they operate, in general. The more moderate/centrist the Republican, the more deal-making and business as usual the anticipated result.

     

    Rush Limbaugh has been sounding very odd in his pontificating, lately, and his words may be prophetic for the Republican Party.

     

    The message is a simple one: Get the work done that you are being hired to do, and getting the free markets yanked back from the Death Eaters is on page one of The List.

     

    These will be the first stumbling steps for the powerful new right/moderate political baby born of the fires of the Great Recession. The challenges are large, real, and perhaps beyond the capabilities of the limited intellects currently running the Republican apparatus. We really won't know until the new Congress is seated in January, and they start their work.

     

    18 Oct 2010, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    LoL! I know it's not *really* funny, but I *did* physically LoL when I read "limited intellects currently running the Republican apparatus".

     

    HardToLove
    18 Oct 2010, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Since many of us engage in transactions above $600 will we have to submit a form 1099 every time we make a trade?
    18 Oct 2010, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    LoL! What a great thought. That would mean the identity, SS#, Corp I.D. #, ... of every seller on the other side of the trade would have to be revealed!

     

    If that was the case, I could support it (just kidding!) if it was revealed at the time the trade was made. Then we could tell when "big money" was making a move by establish a web site that scraped this information in real time and made it available to all!

     

    Short's would have some special requirements too!

     

    BTW, has anyone asked the question about "aggregate" of >=$600 in a year? Like now, we don't have to do 1099s for individuals that we pay less than %500 in a year.

     

    Spell check must be resting for a "spell".

     

    HardToLove
    18 Oct 2010, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Outside reversal day, possible reversal to upside. W/b entering @ 1K shares for my wife's account again, today or tomorrow, and then (maybe) sell calls later. Other technical indicators on chart improving.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Oct 2010, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Got her bck in @ $2.39. Closed @ $2.40. Had good volume, traded most of the day, and closed above, the 200 SMA, two prior resistance points ($2.35/$2.36). Next resistances are ~$2.42 & ~$2.47.

     

    Since the price had recently got into the $2.2x range, and bounced right back out, it added confidence for at least a trade.

     

    Keep in mind we are heading into quarterly report in early November.

     

    All but two indicators on the daily chart look positive, but maybe a bit early. The stochastic is still toward the downside and the ADX *just* crossed to 20 on the way up, so the DI+ is still drooping. But OBV, MFI, RSI and Accum/Distribution... all are positive in nature.

     

    Also, current range is pretty much centered in the Bollinger bands.

     

    Overall, looks that we could get at least a few days move up without any nasty surprise.

     

    The weekly is not yet so positive, although the first early indicator looks like it will try to cross towards positive in a few days if we keep going this way. But it's just the stochastic, so don't jump too early unless you have some other good "vibes" going for it.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Oct 2010, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    Right you are, Hard. I see a possible short term double top forming at $2.475. If we break through that, we're good to go. Intraday stochcastic was bouncing along the top of the board most of the day. Two year stochastic shows slightly overbought. Today's volume was merely normal, though. (NVAX)
    18 Oct 2010, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Volume? yes. *But* it was higher than prior day and higher than the day before that *and* on a move up today.

     

    I LIKEY! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    18 Oct 2010, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Well, the dollar decided to hit us, and everybody and everything else almost, today. Fortunately, I entered an order to sell calls for my wife's 1K shares before market open that executed right at the open before price had a chance to move down. Same Jan $3.00 strikes @ $0.20 as I got for mine, so we have some wiggle room and potential profit if share price moves too far.

     

    After frictions, about 8% "cash back" for her.

     

    If we sell @ $3.00 (cost was $2.39 sans friction) in January, we still did alright.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Oct 2010, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): ClinicalTrials.gov processed this record on October 18, 2010

     

    clinicaltrials.gov/ct2...

     

    The filing from February about the Mexico trial. I don't yet know the significance of this, but it seems something is afoot.

     

    Thanks to pharma_stock_trader @ Yahoo! for catching this.

     

    I'm going over it to see if there's something I can see that carries any clues.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Oct 2010, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    No changes I can see. Must be in preparation to do an update.

     

    Sagfety study results were schedulad to be completed October '10.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Oct 2010, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I agree - looks like Mexico is getting ready to do an update with the final safety results. I think this could be an event equally important as BARDA in terms of gaining credibility on Wall St. Once Mexico gives approval, Novavax changes from a cash-burning R&D company to a revenue-generating company with an approved product on the market. That will be a huge milestone.

     

    I expect we'll see the final safety results news within a week based on this update, but not sure how long Mexico approval might come after that...could be simultaneous, could be longer if there is a final review step prior to granting approval.

     

    I'm buying my final set of call options today.

     

    I want to believe.
    20 Oct 2010, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    This record was updated on Friday (10/22) and again yesterday. I can't see any changes being made to it either, so must be some behind the scenes updates in preperation for releasing final safety results. If nothing else, these updates confirm someone is still working on the study results. Good news shortly.
    26 Oct 2010, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    NVAX is reporting 3rd qtr. Conference call is scheduled for 11/5/10
    pr-canada.net/index.ph...
    20 Oct 2010, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    Yep. Might be time to add some to the pile...

     

    Trading at $2.34......

     

    Computing.....
    20 Oct 2010, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    We have it on good authority that BARDA will be awarded in November. Obviously we don't have any details whether NVAX will get any of the award, how much, etc. but now we know November is the month.

     

    November will be exciting. News will include BARDA (hopefully) & Mexico results at a minimum (though Mexico results may come in this month...don't know).
    20 Oct 2010, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Mitshu35: Greetings. Thanks for the update and for keeping track of these events. I've owned a chunk of (NVAX) for quite some time and it always seems to be building momentum with out actually going any where.
    20 Oct 2010, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Believe me, I understand. I have been in it for about 1.5 years - dead money while the rest of the market screams by. However, I am looking at it like this: We are literally able to get in on the ground floor of a world-class vaccine company (if you believe in the VLP technology). It's just absurd that you can still buy shares under $2.50. I'm not trying to pump here, just offering a perspective on where we are and where (I hope) this company will be in a year or so.

     

    I want to believe.
    20 Oct 2010, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    I want to believe too, but I'm growing tired. I I know that Cadila completed its facility in India. But I don't know if the status of the VLP product has changed from last January. Does anyone else know, or is this still the case? It's hard to find info on it because it is a private company. If NVAX doesn't get a Barda award, I am thinking of moving on.
    www.dancewithshadows.c.../
    20 Oct 2010, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    This is one of those cases where SOMEONE, sooner or later, will make the first successful version. In the past these sorts of breakthroughs occured in many different settings. Government labs, corporations, private foundations, academia, and of course relatively small companies like NovaVax.

     

    More times than not, those events transpired in the United States, with the private sector breeding new drugs, treatments and breakthroughs in rapid sequence...

     

    But things have changed.

     

    Now big pharma companies, particularly in the vaccine sector, have been emasculated by the idiocy of American class action law suits and an anti-business, anti-research, anti-development government mania. The U.S. has gone from the leader in this area to a third world status - all done purposely to feed a cannibalistic ideology which now rules us. Ancient Baal's demands that the infants of his barbaric followers be fed to his fires are no less cruel than the idiocy raging in Washington. These fools, from both flavors of political power, have done irrepairable harm. They are spoiled children playing with nuclear weapons...

     

    I'm afraid that I see a dark future in this area. One in which such companies as (NVAX) will not long survive, as they are forcibly subsumed into the socialist mass by a paternalistic, smothering government. Already the capitalist markeplace for the world's drugs has largely vanished, shrunken now to a fraction of the American market. This last remnant is now being asked to sustain the entire r&d efforts of the rest of the planet, and even IF it somehow survives for a little while longer, its days are numbered.

     

    Even so, the investment climate between now and then could be interesting. Big pharma, though increasingly no longer able to fulfill their traditional r&d role due to the darwinian realities of skyrocketing costs - a tsunami of liability and legal issues - plus the aforementioned troubles with government regulation - IS fighting to survive. In that fight they have hit upon the strategem of leaving the risk of r&d to the little guys. Like farmers tending their crops, they loom, large shadowy figures ready to swoop down at the key, opportune moment to scoop up a treasure from the dirt. This process will present some opportunities, in turn, for us to make profits.

     

    This won't go on for long (I am thinking maybe 6 or 8 more years). Already the pace of advancement is fading, and the new drug pipelines are running dry. Government will notice this, eventually, but all that will mean is that they will have still another excuse to do MORE of what has caused the problem in the first place.
    20 Oct 2010, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Good discussion. Here's my take on a few things.

     

    Cadilia - I don't think nvax will get approval for selling H1N1 in India anytime soon - the Indian gov't doesn't want any foreign-owned entity to produce their vaccines it seems, so I think any VLP-based H1N1 products produced in this plant will be distributed outside of India.

     

    BARDA - I agree, if this doesn't come through for us in some fashion, it will be time to sell (at a loss) and move on. I don't think this will be the case though. One reason is that NVAX has filled the Gov't Accountant position they had previously posted. I'm about 100% certain this position was a requirement for possible BARDA award. There are other reasons I believe NVAX will get this award...everything I see points to them getting ready for it.

     

    Regarding Novavax providing an answer - I do believe others are working on similar solutions. J&J recently bough Crucell for example. There's that large German vaccine company (don't recall the name off the top of my head), and then of course other smaller companies like ours and various universities working on new technologies.

     

    Timing - Everything with NVAX has taken about 9 months or so longer than anticipated. As I have looked back on company conference call notes, PR's, etc., it seems Rahul was overly optomistic in his time estimates in most cases. I do think everything has come together finally, just taken a lot longer than I was expecting based largely on his comments. Maybe things changed that caused delays, maybe he was just giving unrealistic dates, not sure. If we're still sitting here like we are today at $2.40 or so with no real news, then it's time to cut & run in my opinion. I'm convinced this won't be the case.

     

    Now, back to BARDA and Mexico results for a minute. I was of the opinion previously that these 2 events were not tied together, but I am now firmly in the other camp after reconsidering everything last night. Here is what I think... Because VLP is a new, unproven technology, HHS has reviewed all the test results, but delayed awarding BARDA funds until they see the final safety results just to be sure there isn't a major issue with the vaccine before committing themselves here. The award was to be granted this past summer, and it wasn't delayed because of a lack of funds (other BARDA awards were handed out in the mean time), and they didn't delay until the new fiscal year or we would have seen it by now. They simply want to see the last set of data (safety results) before moving forward.

     

    So, I believe we will see Mexico results announced (hopefully with an order either from the Mexican Gov't and/or Avimex at that time or shortly thereafter). We will then see a BARDA award for NVAX. I believe it will be a decent size ($50-$75 million base, possibly larger).

     

    Regarding the stock price, I believe the Mexico news will get us close to $4, possibly higher if there is an actual order placed at that time. Based on how other stocks have moved after BARDA award announcements, we should go up 50-100% from there, so $6-$8 range possible without much of a stretch. The other kicker would be an announcement of starting RSV trials (supposed to happen this quarter, so could be any time, but again this was Rahul saying Q4 for it).

     

    As I have said before, I do believe nvax management's goal is to sell the company, probably within a year from now. They won't give it away, so we should get a decent share price out of it. I am surprised we haven't seen any offers (hostile or not) based on the technology, patents and results provided so far. Once the Mexico & BARDA news hits, our takeover price will be much higher than it would be with any offer we'd get today.

     

    I believe things are about to get significantly better within 1 month + 1 week (end of November). I believe it will be in early November.

     

    My thoughts & opinions only for what they are worth. Good times are indeed right in front of us this time. Am going to try to buy more April $4 calls in the next few days if I can at these prices.

     

    I want to believe.
    21 Oct 2010, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    Trip: I completely agree with what you say. However, our small world needs this technology. Period. If this technology is thwarted, humanity has little hope for alleviating widespread disease. This brilliant technology can not, and should not be suppressed. This is unrealized "hope" for the masses, yet the masses are clueless about this hope.

     

    90 day eggs, versus 2 week answers?

     

    We live in a time where some miffed bacteria can spread darn near instantaneously. Within mere weeks, world wide. Not only do we endure the problems of a global economy, we also endure the problems of breathing upon each other, globally. Humans are mobile, ever moreso. Humanity must remember how past diseases spread. Way beyond, seriously, quantum logarithmic ups toward some plague developing, now than in the past. What sucks is that the overreaction toward H1N1 just may leave humanity lacking in our own regard..

     

    Novavax is providing an answer. Who else, realistically, is?
    21 Oct 2010, 02:09 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    I'm gambling fairly large that (NVAX) will be one of the winners - don't get me wrong, there IS a good amount of time left on the big pharma string. Note the 6-8 year time span I posit in my comments. I don't think anyone here believes this backing and filling with NovaVax will still be at status quo for that long!

     

    As to your core point, YES, you are entirely correct. America, and indeed all Mankind, needs free market research and development - and the fruits of their labors. Unfortunately, we have a long and tragic past history of killing the geese laying the golden eggs, and I see the clear signs of this occuring in this sector as well.

     

    Frankly, even SHOULD the basic technology under discussion here reach a mature state, the odds of our government bureaucracies demonstrating the flexiblity and competence to react to pandemic emergencies anywhere inside the time line required are astronomical. Much of the drawn out story we are reading regarding (NVAX) revolves around the massive impediment to progress that the governments present. At best they engage in the traditional tail-chasing which governments excel at, and plan to fight the last war (which in this case goes all the way back to something like polio and the 50's). Their sloth may well kill millions (hundreds of millions?) one day. (A good book detailing this sf scenario is John Ringo's "The Last Centurion").

     

    But I still hope, pray, and invest (usually in that order, too). This flu topic was what originally brought me to SA (and will ultimately kill me, of course). In a very real sense we investors are the soldiers in the capitalist trenches fighting this battle. And I am very hopeful that we will win this particular campaign, even if we ultimately lose the war.
    21 Oct 2010, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Found the clue that November is the date that Mitshu mentioned.

     

    Started thinking about price action until then. Want to bounce it off you folks.

     

    I see three actions that might occur. One is a slow rise as the expectations spread and runs the price up a bit. In this case, I'll be looking to exit my short Jan $3 calls, maybe at a small loss or break-even, at best.

     

    The other action involves a price drop first. This would be due to large investors shorting to generate a more favorable entry price for a large position entry or increase. In this case, I would be looking to exit my calls at a profit prior to expiration.

     

    A flat price action, not too likely IMO, would also let me exit at a profit or break-even.

     

    Any of the three actions are O.K. for me since my plan is to add more, hopefully on some pullbacks, regardless. These additional tranches are not planned for optioning right now, but for either trading around the core position, or if my chart reading is good enough and indicates, a hold.

     

    Any thoughts on the most likely scenario? With the history, I'm leaning towards seeing some push down on the price at least once more.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Oct 2010, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    Much depends on whether or not there is a major looking to make a minor acquisition. In that case, the objective conditions might work toward an intermediate drop in price, setting up the purchase negotiation. It is quite possible that everything is, indeed, pointing to that incredibly busy 1st week in November.

     

    I wonder, however, whether a potential buyer WOULD seek to manipulate the price in that fashion. Such manipulation would be readily apparent to the company's insiders and management, and might anger them enough for them to seek to sell to the competition...

     

    This would not preclude the usual short sharks' sneaking in to steal a few bites, though.

     

    Hard to predict the precise scenario, HTL.

     

    I'm keeping stops loose and a weather eye out. I'm thinking we will see a surge immediately before the information release/conference call in November, and (assuming the news is good) particularly afterwards.

     

    I don't believe any potential buyer will make a play BEFORE that time - that would work against the whole narrative that they are avoiding these purchases until there is something they really want to buy that has already shed much of the intial risk.

     

    Finally, I believe we should also remember that many such scenarios do NOT involve a buyout, but a strategic alliance with a major firm. This will ALSO push up the share price, of course.
    21 Oct 2010, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8341) | Send Message
     
    HTL my thoughts would be that if the mexico news and barda come through that push down will be from a much higher level.

     

    You are in a race to see if the push down can come prior to those potential events.

     

    Sorry I can not tell you who is going to win but it might be a very short race if this news is expected over the next month. I guess with such a short time frame the news would have an advantage but now that I have said that it won't. Just my luck.

     

    I recently purchased more at 2.20 to average my $4.00+ purchases down. So I am hoping for the news soon but I have noticed that "hopes" do not make good stock picks.
    21 Oct 2010, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    I don't think we'll see a whole lot of price action, unless some news starts to really leak. I think what we "know" about the company and timing, etc. isn't generally known to the average investor. That is what makes speculating so much fun and potentially profitable I guess.
    ---
    Triple - regarding your comment (below), this manipulation is exactly what I went through on ONT when Google was interested in them. Google management and ONT insiders colluded to drive the price low (ONT management wanted to become part of GOOG and were not looking out for shareholder interest as they were supposed to do), so things like this do actually happen. I told my broker about it, he simply said "it's called Corporate Theft, and it happens...". There were (and still are) multilple lawsuits. GOOG simply stole the company...I had never seen anything like it. I honestly haven't been the same after having gone through that.

     

    I wonder, however, whether a potential buyer WOULD seek to manipulate the price in that fashion. Such manipulation would be readily apparent to the company's insiders and management, and might anger them enough for them to seek to sell to the competition...
    21 Oct 2010, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    Yes, there is always the danger that management will be lining their pockets instead of protecting shareholders. Often when this occurs it is not the FIRST time (criminals often commit the same crime frequently, particularly if they gain from it on the earlier occasions). Does anyone know the corporate backgrounds of (NVAX) management?

     

    Frankly I have traded in and out of (CVM) based upon this sort of knowledge, that the insiders have demonstrated a callous disregard for the shareholders, and you therefore should protect yourself. (VICL) recently went through a similar cycle. This sort of shareholder abuse is, sadly, not uncommon.
    21 Oct 2010, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    The management at NVAX is very good, very impressive. I'm not concerned about that type of scenario here at all. It's just the opposite...they want to maximize shareholder value, so should be good for all of us!
    21 Oct 2010, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, that is reassuring.

     

    I am adding more (NVAX) this morning.
    21 Oct 2010, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Just to add on to my comment...

     

    Rahul once said the stock price is worth $20 and it's up to Management to prove it. Of course, it came crashing down after that, but I do believe it could/will be worth $20 in 1-2 years time once RSV is on the market in addition to the seasonal/H1N1 vaccine.

     

    Also, Erck (Chairman) was likely brought in to help negotiate selling the company at the right price. That's what he did at his previous company, and got some 80% premium for the shareholders.

     

    Trizzino has a great industry reputation as well, so I don't think he'd be involved in anything that would screw the shareholders.

     

    I still don't like how they granted themselves huge bonuses earlier this year, but I suspect that may be related to what we are about to see in the near term. I think we have a solid team here running the company.

     

    I like my odds on this stock, even if it is still a gamble at this point.

     

    I want to believe.
    21 Oct 2010, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): just took a close look at the daily chart.

     

    I'm going to add today. All technical indicators hve flipped to +, the most recent being a flip from under distribution (as of last Friday) to being accumulated (starting Monday).

     

    We only need to see volume come up to confirm.

     

    With the latest short statistics, especially the ~ 16 days to cover at current volumes, I think the shorts will support us with upward pressure and volume.

     

    Stle Date Short Int % Chg Avg Vol Days to Cover
    09/30 9,747,429 (5.22) 612,970 15.90

     

    Spell check left the house as socialize.gigya.com is grinding away with no end in sight.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Oct 2010, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    I picked up a couple 1000 more shares this morning, too.
    21 Oct 2010, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): today's action turned daily chart weaker. Holding off on adding. Might be a mistake, but the worst that happens is I move in when it starts to strengthen again at a slightly higher price.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Oct 2010, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    I just bought another chunk of April call options. Once the news breaks, may be too late, so I'd rather be early & wait. I think once we get out of the $2's, we'll never see the price this low again. I have waited this long, so a few more days/weeks won't kill me now.

     

    I want to believe.
    21 Oct 2010, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    "I want to believe" always puts me in a bad head trip when dealing with stocks. Seeing is believing!
    "I want to believe" makes me stay with losing positions too long, imo.
    22 Oct 2010, 12:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): "H1N1 Vaccine Failure Raises Pandemic Concerns"

     

    www.recombinomics.com/...

     

    and "New strain of swine flu emerges: Report"

     

    www.vancouversun.com/h...

     

    Appears that a fast-response identify to production cycle might be needed again this year?

     

    Thanks to yea3434 @ Yahoo! for the first link in this post.

     

    messages.finance.yahoo...

     

    ans schoolteacher @ Yahoo! for the second link in this post
    messages.finance.yahoo...

     

    HardToLove
    22 Oct 2010, 05:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    I'm going to get my flu shot soon. It will always be an ironic and sad reminder of two years ago when I did the same thing - little knowing that I was accomplishing nothing, and that soon after I would contract the strain of flu that would ultimately wreck my heart...

     

    ...Because America no longer produces her own vaccines, and those designed for other continents were tailored to match the strains present THERE, not here.

     

    No mystery why I ultimately sought out this place, and put down roots, I guess.

     

    So this is something of a memorial, this yearly pilgrimage to receive a vaccine which may or may not actually work.

     

    More Americans die every year from flu than from other infectious diseases like AIDS, yet there are no huge foundations dedicated to its control - no telethons raising money - no proudly touted government largesse poured out upon researchers by posing politicians.

     

    The politics of health care are truly mad.
    22 Oct 2010, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Another article, thanks to stocktrekker @ Yahoo! in this thread
    messages.finance.yahoo...

     

    which has a little more info. A notable snippet: "The WHO declared the H1N1 pandemic over in August, but it has now taken over as the main seasonal flu strain circulating throughout the world, except in South Africa, where H3N2 and influenza B are more common".

     

    The article is here.

     

    www.redorbit.com/news/.../

     

    HardToLove
    22 Oct 2010, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Schoolteacher @ Yahoo!, in this thread, messages.finance.yahoo...

     

    posted a link to an article, "Swine Flu Variant Linked to Fatal Cases Might Disable Clearing Mechanism of Lungs, Study Suggests" here

     

    www.sciencedaily.com/r...

     

    An interesting note: "According to a World Health Organisation report, the D222G mutation was found in less than two in every hundred cases of 2009 pandemic flu, but was responsible for around seven in every hundred deaths".

     

    The article goes on to explain the mechanism and effects. This new variant seems to be potentially much more lethal as well as spreading faster than anticipated now.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Oct 2010, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    P.S. Article date is today - thanks to "Schoolteach2000" for such timely location and posting.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Oct 2010, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    And thanks to you, HTL for posting it here!
    22 Oct 2010, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): If you're not in yet, or want to increase position ...

     

    Short interest down ~20% 6/30 - 9/30 reportings (12,090,094 6/30 vs. 9,747,429 9/30) but still 15.9 days to cover with reported average daily volume of 612,970 9/30. My 10 day average shows 600.8K daily as of Friday 10/22, giving a days to cover of 15.9 still, if shorts haven't further exited.

     

    *Recent* action indicates resistance at $2.44/$2.45 and Maya and I have noted apparent resistance in the $2.47 range back in the June time-frame. The $2.45 may be the normal rounding off setting that resistance down to $2.45.

     

    If it breaks above that, we could be off to the races.

     

    However (I *hate* that), on a very short time-frame, we may be making a rising wedge, a bearish indicator. But these are usually noted over many weeks or months, not a week or so. I don't know how much weight we should give this - I'm thinking the resistance of $2.45 is much more influential and if we break through, ...

     

    Chart technical indicators haven't looked this good in a long time. Only two are "iffy".

     

    RSI: 61.91 and rising ++
    Accum/Distribute: +0.293 rising from ~ -3.7 on 8/31 +
    MFI: 73.66 and rising ++
    Momentum: 1.1099 and rising ++
    OBV: gently rising +
    Stochastic: %K 64.79 rising, crossed %D, 54.5% flattening from down ++
    MACD: still below 0, signal and line going positive, has a positive divergence on both line and histogram volume ++
    200 SMA: ~$2.34, flattening from down trend and price is well above that ++
    20/50/100 SMA all trending up ++

     

    A little uncertainty is residing in the following areas.

     

    Volume: still trending down, albeit slowly, may be just a consolidation before the up trend continues -
    DI+ 30, weakened a tad the last few days (likely just an effect of consolidation occurring), -
    DI- 8 and trending down ++
    ADX 28 and trending up ++
    Bollinger bands narrowing and price currently very near top band -

     

    Since 6/15, short interest only had one up period, 8/31. And on 9/1 we had a 17% price range finishing only a penny off the high, low $2.01, high $2.35. I assume that's why we haven't seen shorting come back yet (but see the following) - they got scared out of their shorts (pun intended).

     

    Because we had another good rise recently, I see two possibilities regarding short action.

     

    One is with the price spike on 10/13, we've seen the price hold up because shorts are covering and when they've finished (it's been only one week, and I don't think we've seen enough volume to indicate they've all covered) the price can again retreat, possibly to $2.2x seen on 10/18 on "high" volume as normal investors determine price, rather than shorts under pressure.

     

    The second possibility I see is shorts get emboldened again by the spike and, believing that what they could do before they can do again, they start to "hammer" again and drive price down. I feel this is not likely *right now* because they must know that quarterly reporting is coming (11/5 IIRC or 11/8?), that results from Mexico trials are going to be published soon and positive results are anticipated and that there is a BARDA contract pending that most are expecting to include NVAX. My assessment is that shorts will be unlikely to make any kind of move against the stock at this time, preferring to await the three catalyst results.

     

    How I'm going to play it if things happen. If it drops into $2.20 range again without showing strong technical indicators of continued down movement (e.g. supported by volume or serious deterioration in AD, DI+, DI-), buy or buy calls for the early part of next year.

     

    If the price breaks above $2.45 for two or more days and shows good volume, same as above, figuring the momentum will carry through.

     

    Risk is low with 20/50/100 SMAs all sitting above $2.21, shorts having established a recent history of showing fear, 3 potential upside catalysts pending, the Fed giving free money to everybody that *DOESN'T* need it at all (so the market is the newest bubble forming ATM), flue season coming and an H1N1 mutation of greater severity already reported, ...

     

    Need I continue?

     

    What we need: counterpoints. What risk have I omitted? What sign should we watch for that I've not mentioned? etc.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2010, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    "What risk have I omitted?"

     

    Feels to me like the overall market is due for at least a short-term correction here, maybe right after earnings season is over. I'm getting a little more concerned that our news will come out during a pretty strong down-draft in the overall market, reducing a significant pop & potential gains in NVAX. I hope that's not the case, but would probably be par for the course in this stock.

     

    I see both SIGA and PIP have managed to hang on to their gains, so I expect NVAX will be able to do the same. I just hope the overall market doesn't put a damper on whatever pop we might get.
    26 Oct 2010, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Good thoughts.

     

    My feeling is that we would have some pullback regardless just because of the way the stock has acted in the past.

     

    Today's abysmal volume provided that pullback, currently $2.38 and volume to 15:36 only 226.6K.

     

    But most of the day, it was a one penny spread with neither side budging. Didn't see any evidence of shorts trying to manipulate, just hard-core price negotiation with lots of patience. Every so often the market maker would by or sell a hundred or two, I *guess*, just to get some action going.

     

    With today's lower, we might see some follow-through tomorrow, but I think it's really just everybody holding their breath awaiting Mex., Barda and quarterly cc.

     

    My *feeling* is that when there are strong catalysts, either way, the stock is much less affected by overall market *initially*. After the initial reaction, maybe a few days(?), then the market should have more effect. So the timing of the pullback you mention might be fairly critical.

     

    Even so, with the Fed's QE2 pumping money directly to market participants, via the broker/dealers and their customers, I doubt we'll see a *big* fall in the overall market soon.

     

    And today had an unexpected rise in consumer confidence, so that's another little bump up. If nothing really bad shows up for the next few weeks, I believe the market will not suffer extremes to the down side.

     

    MHO, and thanks for chiming in,
    HardToLove
    26 Oct 2010, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    Great job, Hard! I would think the short interest should also be declining because the flu season is setting in. If I had the ability to short NVAX, I most certainly would not be establishing new short positions this time of year. If I had shorts, I would be covering. Along with all the other insightful reasons you pointed out above, we may see a narrower yet elevated trading range until the next news cycle event, despite the distinct possibility of some greater short term broad market volatility in the headlights.

     

    Here's a short article out yesterday about how H1N1 is different from other kinds of flu. One finding is that mean white blood count is measurably lower than in other forms of flu:

     

    www.sciencedaily.com/r...
    23 Oct 2010, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Well the shorts aren't being so very smart, IMO.

     

    10/15/2010 9,618,550 (1.32) 590,186 16.30

     

    With expected Mexico reports and bard contract award in the next month or two and quarterly report upcoming, they days to cover has moved from just under 16 days to just over.

     

    Of course, they could have done a lot of covering the last couple weeks, possibly accounting for some of the volume and price rise seen. But there still going to be pressured if things come sooner than expected and they haven't been covering strongly.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Oct 2010, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    I'm going to make a couple of predicitions here...

     

    1. NVAX will get either a large chunk or the entire BARDA award for recombinant vaccines.

     

    2. This award will be granted by mid November, and it will follow Mexico results.

     

    3. The size of the award will be significant. I'm going with around $100M base.

     

    4. NVAX stock price will rise to at least $5.50 within 2 days of this news. We will start seeing large stock purchases by mutual funds in the days & weeks following BARDA news and the stock getting over the $4 level. NVAX market cap is currently just under $250M (though possibly higher due to yet to be reported shares sold by the company). If I'm right and the BARDA amount is about $100M, the market cap should increase significantly.

     

    Last year, HHS granted a $35M award to Protein Sciences and they apparently have fallen down on the job. This year, HHS isn't going to make the same mistake again. They have done their homework on NVAX's technology and are being cautious in that they are waiting for the Mexico final results before awarding (as I have stated before).

     

    This award will be a significant amount. It won't be just a $35-$40M award I don't believe. HHS has recognized the need for cell-based and recombinant vaccines. A quick Google search will reconfirm this (just one article link below, from August, pretty much sums everything up I think). This project is too important to HHS to try to save a penny and grant a relatively small award. I believe they are getting solidly behind Novavax's patented technology and will grant an award accordingly. I believe I read that it will cost around $100M for Novavax to complete the Phase III trial here in the U.S., so that's what I am basing my estimated BARDA award amount on. Also, I'm partly basing this relatively large amount on the $500M award that SIGA got. I believe this is the only BARDA award handed out this fiscal year so far (could be wrong about that), but I'm wondering if maybe a new approach is to hand out fewer, but larger and more significant awards instead of a bunch of smaller ones. More focus by HHS on critical area perhaps....pure speculation.

     

    www.fiercebiotech.com/...

     

    There have been at least a few meetings in which HHS and NVAX management have been sitting next or close to each other. Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not. I believe there is quite a bit of activity going on here and have thought so for some time...it just hasn't been made public by either side as of yet.

     

    So, these are my predictions at the moment and tomorrow, I'm putting more of my $ where my mouth is. I am buying one last, large slug of April call options (if I can still get them for 15-cents per). If I'm wrong and end up losing my $, I can live with that and I can say "lordy at least I tried" at the end of the day when we see what unfolds over the next couple of months with this company. I will be sorely disappointed if I'm not at least half right in my predictions after trying to read the tea leaves for so long here.
    26 Oct 2010, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (VICL): Vical to Update Herpes Simplex Vaccine Program at Keystone Conference

     

    ============
    ... Vice President of Clinical Development, Richard T. Kenney, M.D., is presenting preclinical results from the company's herpes simplex type 2 (HSV-2) vaccine program in a poster session Friday morning at the Keystone Symposium on Immunological Mechanisms of Vaccination (Seattle, October 27 – November 1)
    ============

     

    www.globenewswire.com/...

     

    HardToLove
    27 Oct 2010, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): 200 SMA & Lower BB both ~$2.33. Recent support ~$2.35/6 (3 recent occurrences). Market seems ready to open down today. Keep eyes open for move down, next support @ ~$2.30-$2.33, ~$2.25.

     

    *If* it breaks through that first, I think it goes to the $2.2x range again, my next buy point, maybe as low as $2.19 or so (though I doubt that it will get that low right now).

     

    I *might* be able to sell my calls at a profit then, although it would surprise me as there is still a lot of time value left. If pps doe go to $2.2x again, I should rake a small profit and might go ahead a do a buy of calls with the profit.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Oct 2010, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Correction to lower Bollinger band. As of *yesterday's* close, $2.346.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Oct 2010, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    $2.30 looks like a floor to me (hit $2.29 briefly). I have seen several blocks of 5K+ shares trade at the ask today, so looks to me like someone is accumulating on this dip.

     

    Bought more April $4 calls today.

     

    That Mexico Clinical Trials record was updated again yesterday. Someone is hard at work getting those results ready it appears...news shortly!
    27 Oct 2010, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...): Sounds like this might be right up the alleys of these two since no liuve virus is used and both are involved in "receptors" that need to be disabled in same way.

     

    From the Scientific American, "Finding a Killer's Achilles' Heel: Clues from a Pandemic"

     

    www.scientificamerican...

     

    Thx to rezoom2 @ Yahoo! for posting this.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Oct 2010, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Correction: they are not involved in receptors?

     

    HardToLove
    28 Oct 2010, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX), (VICL): Schooltech2000 @ Yahoo! in this post
    messages.finance.yahoo...

     

    informs that the H1N1 (Bird Flu) may be both more widespread and lethal this season. There's a "Bio Radar" consortium that examines stuff for certain genes and can apparently offer good guidance about these things.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Oct 2010, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if that's why (nvax) popped late today. I couldn't find any obvious news about NVAX on the wires today. Finished up $.08 at $2.43, a $0.12 jump from the low of the day
    28 Oct 2010, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    I don't think so. Approaching quarterly results there is a lot of anticipation, due to possible Mex. results and Barda award to follow in the next few months, and anxiety, as folks are also fearful that the report will be viewed in a dim light, the Mex. results or Barda award may not be forthcoming as quickly as expected (hoped), ...

     

    Add that we had a run up where many folks are in a profit position, maybe they should lock in some profit, day traders are always in the market, shorts, ...

     

    Look at the spreads over the last couple weeks. A spread such as you note is not uncommon in this environment, especially when volume is very low.

     

    That's why when I posted about the chart looking bullish, I said I would act if it dropped back into the $2.2x range (it did, but I wasn't on the screen at the times it did) or when it closed two days above $2.47 (did I say "7" or "5" - oh well).

     

    I suspected that regardless of the chart telling us it was ready to move, when other factors are added in it might take a while to establish the trend.

     

    My feeling was $2.2x would be seen again even though I'm thinking it should tend to trend up. But if it wasn't seen and a couple days close was seen above the resistance Maya and I identified, then I felt that would estblish a momentum trend upward.

     

    What we didn't comment on is that it *could* stay right here until after quarterly report. Again, that's why I wanted to see a "break out" or a low entry-point price again.

     

    Quarterly report will be critical regardless of action between now and then, IMO.

     

    Spell check has "left the house" ... again!

     

    HardToLove
    28 Oct 2010, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    This is from Oct. 10th...check out the last line. The NVAX story is getting out finally.

     

    NOVAVAX (NVAX) is a vaccines company focusing on seasonal and emergent influenza. Most flu vaccines are still manufactured using chicken eggs. The drawbacks of this process are time related – it is a labor-intensive process to properly culture the eggs and it can take up to a year to manufacture a vaccine after initial identification of the virus. NVAX uses their novel virus-like particle (VLP) technology as an alternative method to create the vaccines. The particles contain just enough genetic information to trigger a robust immune response, without any genetic instructions for viral replication. So, no chance of getting the flu from your flu shot. The company can generate large quantities of vaccine in just 12 weeks after receiving the genetic information of the target virus. There is a good chance that NVAX may soon receive a nice infusion of non-dilutive financing in the form a federal grant.

     

    www.bioinvest.com/
    28 Oct 2010, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX), (VICL): Namibia Confirms 29 Cases of Swine Flu; No Vaccination Campaign Is Planned

     

    Time to start watching?

     

    www.bloomberg.com/news...

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2010, 06:20 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Schoolteach2000 posted the article below on the Yahoo message board, and I think this is something to watch: "The finding in 2010 of a significant increase in the Replikin Count of the H5N1 infectivity gene as well, in scout viruses to 8.4, its highest level in 53 years, is of concern."
    ------
    Replikins Global BioRadar Surveillance System™ Shows Replikin Count in H5N1 at Record High for 2010

     

    Boston, MA, October 27, 2010 — BioRadar™ software correctly predicted the 2009 H1N1 (Swine Flu) outbreak a year in advance (www.replikins.com, Replikins Press, 2008). The same rise in Replikin Count of these genomic Replikin genes, this time in the H5N1 (Bird Flu) virus, may similarly warn of the coming of severe outbreaks in H5N1.

     

    Specifically, BioRadar™ analyzed two separate Replikins* genes, one for infectivity and one for lethality. The high H5N1 lethality gene Replikin Count, rising since 2006 (6.0+/-7.0), has continued to rise to a high in 2010 (9.1+/-8.5) (p<0.001). BioRadar™ predicted in 2009 an increase in H5N1 outbreaks and more outbreaks appeared in 16 countries by mid-2010. The previous low infectivity of H5N1, correlated with a low Replikin Count, has been reassuring. The finding in 2010 of a significant increase in the Replikin Count of the H5N1 infectivity gene as well, in scout viruses to 8.4, its highest level in 53 years, is of concern.

     

    By means of BioRadar™ software, Replikins were identified in all sequences (N, H5N1=25,358) from PubMed and from Global BioRadar Surveillance System™ participants.

     

    The studies were conducted by Samuel Bogoch, M.D., Ph.D. and Elenore S. Bogoch, M.D., Boston University School of Medicine and BioRadar UK, Ltd.

     

    *About Replikins

     

    Replikins are a new group of genomic peptide structures in viruses, other infectious disease agents, and cancer cells, which are associated with rapid replication (www.replikins.com). Two genes have been isolated in silico in viruses and relate to infectivity and lethality respectively. The increase in Replikin concentration (Replikin Count=Number of Replikins per 100 amino acids) in the virus Infectivity Gene precedes an increase in clinical infectivity and spread; and an increase in the virus Lethality Gene precedes an increase in lethality clinically.
    29 Oct 2010, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (VICL): Names Igor Bilinsky Senior Vice President, Corporate Development

     

    ... Prior to joining Vical, Dr. Bilinsky was Vice President, Business Development and Special Operations at Halozyme Therapeutics since January 2008, after joining the company in 2007 as Executive Director, Corporate Development and Special Operations.

     

    More in the article.

     

    www.globenewswire.com/...

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2010, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Here's an article from the UK that Swine flu "jab" is associated with nerve disease:

     

    www.dailymail.co.uk/he...#
    29 Oct 2010, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8341) | Send Message
     
    Last year they poo pooed this as much as they could.
    29 Oct 2010, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Now the question becomes: does a vaccination based on a VLP (NVAX) have the same level of risk? If not, huge for NVAX. The Mexico safety data should show it, but with such a low percentage of occurrences, the safety data from Mexico may not be a large enough sampling to provide statistically significant proof.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2010, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8341) | Send Message
     
    If it does not have adjuvants and mercury that would be helpful too.

     

    I have not heard if they use or even need to have this in the VLP vaccines. I believe the adjuvants extend the amount of vaccine by 10X by effecting the immune system some how. Not sure.

     

    Anyone know?
    29 Oct 2010, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Designed to be used without the need of adjuvants, IIRC. From waht I recall of the safety data, the effectiveness and responses at the lowest doses (5 mcg?) were almost as good as at higher doses - but there were so many new things I could have overlooked something.

     

    I recall no additives, such as mercury, being used with any fo the test plans.

     

    And without any "live" virus genetic material being used, any effect from such material should also be zero.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2010, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8341) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if we will see a decrease in autism rates with the VCL immunizations? That would be great news for NVAX too. What mother would allow thier child to have any other vaccine type if there was an increased risk to autism from vaccines other than VCL.
    29 Oct 2010, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Well, mercury continues to be used in vaccinations given early in childhood for other things. I have a strong suspicion about mercury, even making my dentist use alternatives about 30 years ago. He didn't like, thought I was stupid (may be, but for other reasons) and argued with me. But I stood my ground and have no regrets.

     

    I'm afraid that until some with a good scientific and statistical background can get a project and some major funding (unlikely - its like global warming skepticism - too much against the grain to get the big bucks and much attention), I think we are doomed to continue to see a rise in (as yet unproven) deleterious effects from continued use of mercury in children's shots.

     

    Of course, maybe they stopped and I missed it in the last two decades or so.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2010, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): re RSV from NIH, 10/27/2010. Although insufficient VLP for RSV was available for testing, the used quantities of VLPs for Newcastle disease which contained RSV F and G proteins to test for possible effectiveness in mice, WITHOUT adjuvant. Good results were seen.

     

    Bodes well for NVAX's efforts in this area. Short read.

     

    www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p...

     

    Thanks to trippingthefall @ Yahoo! for the find and link.

     

    messages.finance.yahoo...

     

    HardToLove
    30 Oct 2010, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    Been away. What's up with NVAX today? Is this pullback due to their Nov. 5 upcoming qtrly report?
    1 Nov 2010, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): I don't think so. It's staying pretty much in a range bound trade from$2.2x (~$2.29 or so) to $2.47. The *range*, I believe, is an effect of folks awaiting the report, the conference call and enlightenment as to when Mex. approval may be received and, expected to *follow* that after some period, the date when the BARDA award might be announced (current chatter says HHS is being cautious and waiting for final results and approval from Mexico so that HHS doesn't have too much egg on their face - I don't know how much of this is true, of course).

     

    And when Cramer opened his mouth on CNBC today, market tanked in response to his bullish sentiment. That's probably dragging things a bit.

     

    I expect today will hold @ $2.30, based on bid/ask imbalance seen earlier.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Penetrated 200 day SMA, but I expect it won't stay below long.
    1 Nov 2010, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    I believe we are seeing a general reaction. Eventually we will learn that xbillion$ fled equities (again). Looks like a lot.

     

    An amazing number of people do NOT follow the news. Many are just now focusing on the elections tomorrow, and are astounded to see that the Regime is likely to suffer a setback. Money that entered the markets on the back of hope and change, is now in panic mode.

     

    I believe that tomorrow could go either way, hard to judge.

     

    Wednesday morning we might see the opposite reaction, as money which FLED from hope/change flows back into the markets.

     

    Wednesday afternoon might be the best time to bail, if you are going to. Because then we might see the big players setting up for the Lame Duck session, and it could get hairy IF they believe the Lame Ducks (who still control all the levers of power, of course) might be a tad tiffed from getting the axe.

     

    The disposition (if any) of the Bush Tax Cuts still remains.

     

    I'm wondering just how much spite (or newfound backbone and courage) will emerge in the Lame Ducks. I hope they astound us, and do the right thing - and vote the Bush Taxes into 2011 and beyond.

     

    I'm not betting that will happen, however.
    1 Nov 2010, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    A possible bearish indicator is that mutual funds saw a small inflow for the first time in 6 months, IIRC, according to CNBC.

     

    The presumption is that the typical retail investor comes in near/at the highs and a pullback is likely.

     

    Further, Charles Hugh Smith presented a chart that indicates we are at a potential tipping point. But he was just charting (no consideration of politics, elections, fundamental analysis - supposedly TA only is not allowed on SA articles).

     

    My personal feeling is that if inflows have started and the big boys think they can keep them coming, they'll continue to hold the market up in this range to fleece more people.

     

    HardToLove

     

    Hm, this should really be in the QC?
    1 Nov 2010, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    Probably should be in the QC, my fault, I started looking at Maya's qustions, and I went crazy macro.
    1 Nov 2010, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Then it's Maya's fault! Probably went "crazy macro" thinking of those bumper stickers. ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2010, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    Nah, HTL..."Going crazy macro" is the first symptom of TripleBlackout Syndrome!

     

    Wikipedia defines this *dis-ease* as someone who becomes realised after wonking out flat on the floor three times, usu. for reasons inconprehensible, except in cases when first viewing the US National Debt Clock.
    1 Nov 2010, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    LOL, you guys are so 80's.
    1 Nov 2010, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    As Weast Nile activity wanes wuth the mosquito population seasonal flu activity is picking up along the border. All of the Sonoran states on both sides of the border are reporting this from West Texas to central AZ. Vaccine is readily available and being highly touted.
    1 Nov 2010, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Chart looks like it may roll over today. Not convincing, but the apparent support @ ~$2.29 looks at risk here.

     

    Yesterday had a lower high and finished at the bottom of the channel, $2.29 on increased volume. But technicals on the chart are mixed. May be that some of the longs are getting anxious - didn't look like heavy shorts activity, but price trended down all day long. Three day was up, flat and down.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2010, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Luck jack over at yahoo!, in this thread, reports that we have no news from NVAX because they are preparing an article for publication. This is supposed to be based on a call to investor relations.

     

    messages.finance.yahoo...

     

    to be published in "Nature", which has an embargo policy prior to publication, detailed here.

     

    www.nature.com/nature/...

     

    Bodes well - usually these things are very positive in nature.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2010, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Yes, the Mexico results are supposed to be published in a professional publication...this was mentioned on one of the previous conference calls (I believe the last one).

     

    Also, brief mention from flyonthewall.com today:

     

    Novavax may see upside from government contract, BioRunUp.com reports
    www.theflyonthewall.co...?
    2 Nov 2010, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Heh. Ya' think? I wonder if that was difficult for them to figure out.

     

    No reflection on you Mitshu, but if that outfit calls that news, I won't be subscribing. Now, if they had reason to say "will" instead of "may", *that* would be worthy of mention.

     

    Anyway, I appreciate you posting so don't take my comments as aimed at you.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2010, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    h1n1supreme posted the comment below. I guess we won't see a PR on these final safety results in the near future, but the results should still allow Mexico gov't approval at this point...not sure how long that may take after these final results were tabulated though.
    ----
    "the Mexican results CAN be discussed at conferences...but MAY NOT be publicly released in press release or other media until published in the journal to whom we have given exclusive rights..." quote from nvax investor relations over the phone 20 minutes ago....call them yourself...do your own due diligence...
    HOWEVER...I have never seen a professional journal demand confidentiality on an article with less than significant results....aimho
    2 Nov 2010, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    Good *gumshoe-ing* guys! I added more NVAX yesterday and this morning. Good to see the stock spring back after yesterday's decline.
    2 Nov 2010, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Price has now bumped off the resistance at $2.45 - $2.47 (ignoring the spike of 10/13 and "shooting star" of 10/25, both of which were immediately followed by reversions to range) several times now. So we have a "triple top" here. And the last two occurrences have exhibited *decisive* resistance as the prices were pushed from the highs back down to very near the lows of the day.

     

    This *may* just be day-trades. Or it may be a sign that longs are concerned and deciding they better lock in profits. This may have to do with fear of disappointment in the quarterly report and conference call.

     

    Some of the technical indicators have weakened, as mentioned in a prior comment. I'm sticking to my plan of possible increase in positions if we get into the $2.2x area (I prefer the lower range of that) or two days of $2.47+ close.

     

    Keep in mind that quarterly report and conference call is this Friday 10:00 A.M. This adds some volatility to pps as various folks either enter or leave positions due to optimism or pessimism or fear or greed.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Nov 2010, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    NVAX gets $175K Shingles award! See last paragraph. Article is dated today.

     

    Small award, but recognition of NVAX vaccines potential.

     

    www.reuters.com/articl...
    3 Nov 2010, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    There are approximately 50 million Americans over age 60; more than 95 percent had chickenpox as children, making them vulnerable to shingles.

     

    "The market is large," says Christine Fanelle, a spokeswoman for Merck & Co., the vaccine's manufacturer.
    4 Nov 2010, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    My mother had shingles. I shudder thinking about how much pain she endured. Like a thousand red hot needles repeatedly jamming up from under your skin. No warning. Can last for years.

     

    Currently, no insurance companies help pay for the ~$225 shot for people under 60 years old.
    4 Nov 2010, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): NOVAVAX Awarded Nearly $1 Million in Grants from IRS Under Qualifying Therapeutic Discovery Project

     

    www.prnewswire.com/new...

     

    BUMP!

     

    HardToLove
    4 Nov 2010, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8341) | Send Message
     
    Mitshu and HTL, good stuff. Looks like a little pump priming event. Still waiting for the gusher.
    4 Nov 2010, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    2 gushers coming:

     

    Mexico approval. We know the final safety results are in (as they have been submitted to Nature magazine), so now it's just a question of when Mexico will grant approval. Could be any day.

     

    BARDA. The big one.

     

    Also (smaller gusher) will be the IND for RSV announcement...should be this quarter sometime.

     

    A credible poster on the Yahoo board is posting he knows something about a buyout being in the works, but isn't providing any details. Not sure if he actually knows something or is just speculating, but it would not surprise me if this is the case (actually, it would suprise me if this isn't the case - hard to image other vaccine companies not wanting to steal the company while the market cap is so low at this point).
    4 Nov 2010, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Exxxxxcellent said the war horse in a high sqeaky voice. Reminds me of the Bud Light catch phrase: Here we go!
    4 Nov 2010, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to ALL the hardworkers on this thread that have contribued so much top flight data so generously. Regardless how this one plays out, you folks are tops!

     

    And yes, this one is READY!
    4 Nov 2010, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    Some of us were bumming that after chopper Ben's FMOC announcement, the market would pull back...during the potential BARDA/Mex/Nature Mag announcement(s). Now, with more money pouring in, the possiblity of the Bush Tax cuts being extended, the dollar again tanking, the markets on a tear, we may just have the perfect time for NVAX to make some announcements.

     

    Champagne in the fridge. Fingers crossed!

     

    4 Nov 2010, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Tomorrow 10:00 A.M. conference call.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Nov 2010, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX) loss ($0.10) my platform reports expected was ($0.09).
    Q3 revenues $175,000

     

    Expect initial drop from those that just follow earnings est. v. realized?

     

    HardToLove
    5 Nov 2010, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    I have NVAX down 8 cents pre-market. (Glad I didn't go into owning more shares last night, HTL). This could, though, be an adding opportunity.

     

    Pre-market shares only 3.43K traded. Already queued for a buy @ 2.32.
    5 Nov 2010, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    Now down 11 cents on 5.43K traded pre-market. Leading focus for me today is this stock.
    5 Nov 2010, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Initial knee-jerk reaction in pre-market and later. Conference call could sway sentiment as Q&A may reveal *supportable* optimistic news.

     

    I'm looking to close out my Jan $3.00 calls at a profit, hopefully today, and so will be watching the minute-by-minute fairly closely.

     

    Re-entry/add IMO still $2.2x, lower range now seems better.

     

    Shorts will not miss an opportunity to manipulate price down, IMO, and then cover lower. If I see this action, buy-in/add drops further.

     

    I'll post here and "StockTalk" if I am able to see any significant trends or action.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Nov 2010, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Full PR here.

     

    www.prnewswire.com/new...

     

    hardToLove
    5 Nov 2010, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Prior to conference call 09:46 right now, bid/ask $2.33/$2.34 w 1:2 ratio a time. Narrows and widens, but seems a little more selling pressure than buying at these prices in Level II market depth chart.

     

    OOPS! 1:4 right now.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. trades don't seem to have a strong preference for at the bid or offer ATM.
    5 Nov 2010, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    On surprisingly light volume. Gut tells me conference call will be a good one.
    5 Nov 2010, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): With abatement of H1N1 threat, Mexico's regulatory authority has reverted to "normal" process, so I read this as not immediate news of Mexico approval.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Nov 2010, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    Mexico: Bad news. Delays...
    Reactor: Neutral. This can only hurt stock, function is assumed.
    Barda: Neutral. Proofs in the pudding.
    Market reaction? We'll see.
    5 Nov 2010, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): test of Rockville reactor manufacturing yields and quality is excellent.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Nov 2010, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Cautiously optimistic of Barda award.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Nov 2010, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): expects Barda funding absorption of all costs of Phase III trials here, but negotions are ongoing.

     

    India clinical trials to begin shortly and all costs are being absorbed by the Indian partner.

     

    New rabies vaccines pre-clinical studies are quite positive and exceed current standard of care.

     

    RSV: FDA in effect has clinical hold awaiting additional info from NVAX.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Nov 2010, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): first analyst seems to view this as "good progress" and "good quarter".

     

    NVAX still pursuing mono-valent trials and are discussing partnerships on tri-valent vaccine which would encompass seasonal flu as well as H1N1.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Nov 2010, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    I didn't realize that another round of trials would be required to get seasonal flu vaccine approval. This was the big disappointment to me from the call (along with Mexico putting H1N1 approval on standard review time now instead of the expedited review as had been promised previously).

     

    Great news in India - sound like significant progress there.

     

    All comes down to BARDA award now. Let's hope & pray we get that and it's large enough to cover all H1N1 costs here.
    5 Nov 2010, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    I have to admit that after today's call, I am committed to getting out of NVAX. I sold all the shares that I have at a profit, and if we get a BARDA announcement and the stock moves up at all, I will be 100% out. I believe this company has great potential and vaccine technology, but it consistently comes up "a day late and a dollar short" everywhere they turn.

     

    If you take Rahul at his word during the conference call today, the company really does not know whether they will get BARDA or not (I believed that it was pretty much a done deal, but now have reservations...I do believe they will get something but decided to sell my profitable shares to hedge my bet a bit). The backup plan if no BARDA award comes through is to try to partner up (otherwise I expect there would be more dilution, but he didn't say that on this issue).

     

    So anyway, for what it's worth, I am hoping for a nice BARDA-related pop this month so I can complete my exit on this one. I am just truly disappointed once again. There are some good things going on with the company, but it's more wait, wait, wait it seems to me. Success has been elusive with this company for too long IMO, though I do think our odds of BARDA award are about 75%-90% or so. We'll get something out of HHS - they haven't been negotiating and doing the plant visit for nothing. I also still believe November will be the month for this grant.
    5 Nov 2010, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Your exit is certainly understandable. It's one of the hazards of investing. Sometime extraordinary patience is needed, a belief in fundamentals of the company product and faith in the management's ability to realize "the dream".

     

    This is extremely difficult in normal times, much less an environment where the markets are all near-term oriented, admittedly out of the necessity to reduce risk.

     

    I hope you get out at a reasonable price and have good luck in your next endeavor.

     

    Your contributions here have been appreciated. Drop in occasionally and say "Hi!".

     

    HardToLove
    5 Nov 2010, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    Mitshu: Sorry to see you switching out, and can empathize with your waning patience.

     

    You've provided such tremendous input. Best!
    5 Nov 2010, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Best wishes in your future undertakings Mitshu. Yourt contributions are apreciated. Should you come accross any gems in the rough give us a shout. Thanks.
    8 Nov 2010, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Robert. I'm still in NVAX, though I have sold a chunk. Just can't take another 1-2 years without revenue, but am holding out hope for BARDA award.

     

    I'm moving heavily into AUGT. It's a bb stock, but do some homework on it if you're into tech. It's really, really amazing, though speculative at this point. Take a look at the *foundational* patents they have (meaning AUGT filed their patents before GOOG, AOL, Yahoo, etc., so theirs takes precedence which is why the settlement talks have not been dismissed - huge!), their lawsuits against AOL/Time Warner & Yahoo, current management, recent quarterly report (sales are just starting to take off, expected to turn cash-flow positive 2/11). Good discussion boards on Yahoo & IV if interested.

     

    Also like KERX, though don't currently own any shares.

     

    If NVAX pops with BARDA, I'll be 100% out. Luck to all us longs!
    8 Nov 2010, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    Huge buy sell ratio right now; 81300 bids@$2.33/ 2700 sells @ $2.34.
    5 Nov 2010, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): closed out my Jan $3 calls for total profit just under $300.

     

    NVAX back up to $2.36/$2.37 right now.

     

    Maybe digestion of the report and conference call produced something besides indigestion.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Nov 2010, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Lots of Dec., Jan & April $3 call options (almost 425 total) were bought today. Is someone speculating, or does someone suddenly know something here??? That's the question we'd all like to know I guess.

     

    Wish there was more buying on the $4 April calls - I have a bunch of them. Hope they work out for me. When I purchased, I really thought NVAX getting into the $5-6 range with BARDA news would be no problem. Not so sure anymore, with having Mexico H1N1 approval slowed down and having to do more trials there for approval for seasonal flu and missing the '10 U.S. flu season testing period.
    8 Nov 2010, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    Over 350 more $3 Calls (Jan & April) bought today. Plus some $4 ones as well.

     

    Let's go already....I'm ready to know one way or the other if nvax gets BARDA cashola! I still think they do.
    10 Nov 2010, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): There must be some long-term investors underlying today's price action. I see no *major* selling pressure, in fact I just saw a $2.34/$2/35 with a 6:1 bid/ask ratio - another big buy imbalance again.

     

    So, maybe most, like me, expected only financials, a brief discussion of Mex. and Barda ending in "still waiting" (the Mex. "returned to normal procedures" was a bit disappointing though) and maintain the belief that the technology, nature, and management will produce some decent results down the road.

     

    I think next week might be the test - today's Friday, often a low-volume tight trading range day - if shorts decide that NVAX is a good target again. If they don't decide that, I think we see a steady continued more-or-less range-bound price for a while.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. People forget how quickly flu variations can pop up and spread, H1N1 has already done a more virulent mutation that could come to the fore. If that happens, NVAX is "up front" again.
    5 Nov 2010, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): Just hit $2.40 Maya. Don't know if it can hold though.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2010, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    Not to worry. I took some profits, and now that my exposure to them is limited, it'll shoot up like crazy, I'm sure...
    8 Nov 2010, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9923) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Saw that. I sold 2500 shares this morning and then flipped $s into (LPH).Still retain a lot of shares. My gamer account is doing really well today, despite the down markets.
    8 Nov 2010, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13508) | Send Message
     
    Me too, Maya. Sold 1800 shares of NVAX, holding a bunch still.

     

    One of my best one day performances today, despite Lynas being down. Silver and gold going nuts, and yes, ATPG is doing extremely well. I also own RIG, and its well up today.

     

    My other pharma, (CLDX), is up 2.55% today.
    8 Nov 2010, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): bid:ask ~2:1 looks to move on up a while. But it's a low volume day.

     

    The really good news? Low volume and all technical indicators are still indicating up. Sheesh, might hit $2.43 today - high already $2.41.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2010, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    Great Panther's newest release is here, and it is very good news:
    www.greatpanther.com/s...-...
    8 Nov 2010, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    You meant this for the REE concentrator?

     

    I'll copy it over there for you.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2010, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5061) | Send Message
     
    NVAX lost .10 a share. They are bleeding buckets.
    biz.yahoo.com/e/101108...
    9 Nov 2010, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    Yep. But "bleeding is common for an early-stage bio-tech. Although the message boards had mixed reviews of the report, biased by individual POVs - trader, investor, bought too high, ..., there were several positive take-aways.

     

    That's why the PPS is holding up alright for now. But longer-term, it *should drift to the low $2 range again, just as a normal course of the ebb and flow of market and sentiment.

     

    I've not checked yet for analyst rating changes, but 1 year target yesterday was still $6+ - a little optimistic in my view.

     

    Knowing the stock as well as we do now and believing in the long-term, I've been taking some profits just selling covered calls. Raked a small amount (~ 8%) a few days ago and just opened some more positions today, figuring that we'll see that low $2 range again.

     

    The thing to keep in mind is that sentiment is that a Barda award will materialize and their cash position is good for now. Although the Mexico approval has been moved from fast-track to normal, it's felt that approval will come.

     

    RSV trials is on a clinical hold, likely for more information about manufacturing purity documentation of somesuch. This is is felt to be a minor delay in the process since the process is not live-virus and there should be no new safety issues being raised.

     

    India has a rabies problem that NVAX is addressing (via their partnership there) and there's positive outlook on that front too.

     

    In summary, I think that the cash is not likely to require further dilution since the recent IRS grant (~$100MM, IIRC) and current cash should easily last until the Barda award materializes.

     

    It's the same company as before, same prospects and long-term a good prospect I think.

     

    There's been some babble about what a good buyout target NVAX would be, I don't know enough to comment on that. As always, NVAX is constantly talking to potential partners for new endeavors.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Nov 2010, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): A new variant of H3N2 has some talking about a possible pandemic situation. Seems a little early to make much ado about it yet.

     

    www.recombinomics.com/...

     

    Hat tip to yes3434 on Yahoo! for a post to the link.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Nov 2010, 06:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mitshu35
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
     
    This could quickly change things...worth watching.
    -----
    If the two cases in the WHO alert are current and have no contact with each other, then they likely signal the start of another pandemic.
    11 Nov 2010, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): NOVAVAX to Present at Lazard 7th Annual Healthcare Conference

     

    ... Tuesday, November 16, 2010 at 1:10pm local time at the St. Regis Hotel, New York, NY. An audio link to the live presentation can be accessed via the Company website at novavax.com under Investors/Events. An archive of the presentation will be available after the event on the Novavax website for 90 days.

     

    www.prnewswire.com/new...

     

    I don't think it should affect PPS much, but you never know.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Nov 2010, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17907) | Send Message
     
    (NVAX): down heavy today - bid ask imbalance seems to indicate it will fall further. Down 2.5% now, looks like $2.29 is possible, but a little early yet.

    &