User 283977's  Instablog

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  • User 283977: 
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  A new version for November.

  Oct 31 04:13 PM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  Social factors and the spread of diseases.
  (October 31) Officials Find Swine Flu Hits Minorities Harder
  
  Young people are more at risk of getting swine flu, and pregnant women, among others, have a higher chance of hospitalization from the new flu. Now public health officials are discovering that blacks and Latinos have a substantially higher risk of both.
  
  It is apparently not because of race or ethnicity, per se; it’s because of the social circumstances of many African-Americans and Hispanics. The new data are from Boston health authorities. Federal health officials are studying flu disparities on a national basis but haven’t released numbers yet.
  
  kosu.org/2009/08/offic.../

  Oct 31 06:15 PM | Link | Reply
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  • H. T. Love: 
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  OG posted in the October after User closed it. Posting the link here. Discusses the Tamiflu not being so effective against H1N1.
  
  seekingalpha.com/insta...
  
  HardToLove

  Nov 01 07:29 AM | Link | Reply
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  • Mayascribe: 
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  Here is the link to the article about 6 pigs at the Minnesota State Fair having swine flu. Article also states the pigs @ the North Dakota State Fair are being tested. Given that swine flu is part avian flu, I now wonder if birds might contract this disease, too.
  
  
  www.postchronicle.com/...

  Nov 01 01:51 PM | Link | Reply
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  • H. T. Love: 
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  OG! Oct closed. You posted this there!
  
  No worry - I'm watching your butt.
  
  Here's your post
  
  seekingalpha.com/insta...
  
  HardToLove

  Nov 01 01:57 PM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  A quick overview concerning the issue of Mercury (specifically Thimerosal) in H1N1 vaccines. The second link tells us that if the presence of Thimerosal raises concerns, it may be possible to find Single-dose syringes of H1N1 vaccine which are thimerosal-free.
  
  (November 1) Study Examines Mercury In Vaccines
  The injectable, multi-dose H1N1 vaccine contains the mercury-based preservative thimerosol to reduce risks of bacterial contamination. The presence of thimerosol has raised concerns whether there are risks posed to children when the tiny amount of mercury contained in thimerosol is included in a vaccine.
  
  In a recent issue of the Journal of Pediatrics, researchers found that evaluated levels of mercury in the blood of the smallest children (prematurely born / low birth weight infants) after they received a dose of a childhood vaccine containing thimerosol were exceedingly low then fell rapidly to baseline levels by day ten after the vaccination following the vaccination." Previous studies were conducted on term newborns, and on 2-and 6-month old infants. In those studies, the researchers also found the mercury levels in the vaccinated children were very low and quickly returned to pre-vaccine levels, usually within three to seven days.
  
  www.medicalnewstoday.c...
  
  (September 15, 2009) Does the H1N1 vaccine contain mercury?
  
  Thimerosal is a mercury-based preservative that has been phased out of childhood immunizations since 2001 due to concerns that the preservative MAY be linked to autism. But thimerosal (which is about half-mercury) will be found in multi-dose vials of the H1N1 vaccine.
  
  However, it may be possible to find doses that are thimerosal-free if you ask for single-dose shots. According to the CDC, "Single-dose syringes will be thimerosal-free, which will address concerns about this additive, especially regarding pediatric and pregnant vaccine recipients (inhaler sprayer vaccine products also will be thimerosal-free)."
  
  www.physorg.com/news17...

  Nov 01 02:42 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Mayascribe: 
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  User: Between the Phillies in the World Series, mom tumbling, the crappy tempo weekend live-in help, (who I can barely work out what she's saying, who did not wake me up last night, who damn near refused to administer something a simple as eye drops, who doesn't even know how a pull out couch works, who...ahhh...grrr...), I forgot tell you the Halloween party I was going to go to was cancelled. Why? Two kids of the hosts contracted H1N1.
  
  You are delivering. Bears repeating. You are delivering. This Concentrator is fabulous.
  
  Near game time.

  Nov 01 08:00 PM | Link | Reply
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  • doubleguns: 
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  "No worry - I'm watching your butt."
  
  Please don't get to descriptive, I am jealous.

  Nov 01 09:18 PM | Link | Reply
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  • optionsgirl: 
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  Thanks HTL. I did it several times!
  
  NVAX is reporting Friday 11/6 after 8 am.

  Nov 02 12:36 AM | Link | Reply
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  • Mayascribe: 
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  Gang: So is my fav, (JAG). I believe they will give forth a favorable report. In fact, I believe no company on the planet will give forth a more favorable report, Nov. 5th.

  Nov 02 01:26 AM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  (November 2) FluGen Cell-Based, Egg-Free Method Produces Novel 2009 H1N1 Vaccine Virus
  
  FluGen Inc., announced that its proprietary CHO-cell-based production system has generated novel 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccine virus without the use of eggs during any step of production. CHO cells have been in common use in protein research, pharmaceutical discovery and pharmaceutical production for decades.
  
  The company expects its cell-based, egg-free method to readily transfer to full-scale vaccine production and is in the process of developing a highly-efficient, production-scale system that will be available in the near future.
  
  The egg-based process, by which all influenza vaccines are now produced, can take up to six months to deliver vaccine. The worldwide shortages of seasonal and novel 2009 H1N1 vaccine, exacerbated by this year's influenza pandemic, highlight the need for a quicker, cleaner, egg-free vaccine production method like FluGen's.
  
  www.medicalnewstoday.c...
  
  I included this even though the company (FluGen ) is private, and very much in H1N1 vaccine start-up mode. The article once again points out the competitive pressure that new technology and innovations will be putting on the traditional chicken egg production method in the very near future. The old chicken egg production method is too slow and expensive relative to the new technologies.
  
  What are the large vaccine production companies, dependent on the current chicken egg production methods, going to do? Are they going to develop their own new technology and production systems? If so, it seems they would be spreading that news…. or are they planning to implement the new technology and production systems through acquisitions/ mergers?

  Nov 02 09:19 AM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  ACK! Your mom hit the deck? Did she get hurt?

  Nov 02 09:22 AM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  (November 2) Clorox 1Q Profit Rises 23% On H1N1-Boosted Sales; View Raised
  
  Clorox Co.'s (CLX) fiscal first-quarter earnings rose 23% amid increased sales of disinfecting products caused in part by H1N1 flu concerns and higher margins. The results exceeded estimates and Clorox raised its earnings forecast for the fiscal year by a nickel to a range of $4.05 to $4.20 a share and affirmed its sales outlook.
  
  Chairman and Chief Executive Don Knauss said that considering the recession and the impact of weaker foreign currencies, the results exceeded the company's expectations, thanks to strong sales of disinfectants being used in an effort to ward off the H1N1 flu virus.
  
  online.wsj.com/article...

  Nov 02 09:26 AM | Link | Reply
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  • H. T. Love: 
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  NVAX:
  Novavax Reports Positive Data for its Trivalent Seasonal Influenza (VLP) Vaccine
  Candidate in a Second Phase II Study
  
  --- Results Presented at 47th Annual Meeting of the Infectious Diseases Society
  of America--- VLP vaccine induced robust hemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) antibody
  responses against all vaccine strains and a drifted strain--- First evidence of
  generation of functional anti-neuraminidase antibody by VLP vaccine
  
  ROCKVILLE, Md., Nov 02, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Novavax, Inc.
  (NVAX) a clinical-stage vaccine company, announced today that the Company made a
  poster presentation on the "Safety and Immunogenicity of a Recombinant Trivalent
  Seasonal Influenza Virus-like Particle (VLP) Vaccine in Healthy Adults" on
  Saturday, October 31, 2009 at the 47(th) Annual Meeting of the Infectious
  Diseases Society of America (IDSA).
  
  This presentation included data from a study of Novavax's trivalent seasonal
  influenza VLP vaccine that began in May of this year among healthy adults 18 to
  49 years of age. The vaccine contained VLPs matched to the influenza strains
  recommended for the 2008-2009 influenza vaccine including H1N1
  A/Brisbane/59/2007, H3N2 A/Brisbane/10/2007, and B/Florida/04/2006. The study
  enrolled 241 subjects in total, including 221 who were randomized to receive
  either VLP vaccine at 15 mcg or 60 mcg or a placebo and 20 subjects who received
  an inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV).
  
  The trivalent seasonal influenza VLP vaccine was well tolerated and immunogenic.
  The incidence of adverse events was comparable in the VLP vaccine groups (10.6%)
  and the placebo group (11.8%). No serious vaccine-related adverse events have
  been reported to date. The VLP vaccine induced robust hemagglutination inhibition
  (HAI) antibody responses against all three strains in the vaccine and a drifted
  strain. Seroconversion (greater than or equal to 4-fold rise in titer from
  baseline) rates met the suggested FDA criteria for licensure of seasonal
  influenza vaccines for all three strains. For subjects in the 15 mcg group,
  seroconversion rates (95% CIs) were 57% (44, 68), 86% (75,93), and 62% (50,74)
  against the H1N1, H3N2, and B strains, respectively. Seroprotection (titer
  greater than or equal to 1:40) rates met the FDA criteria for licensure for all
  strains except the H1N1 strain. For subjects in the 15 mcg group, seroprotection
  rates (95% CIs) were 67% (54,78), 91% (82,97), and 84% (73,92) against the H1N1,
  H3N2, and B strains, respectively. Interestingly, the FDA seroconversion and
  seroprotection criteria were also met for a drifted H3N2 strain,
  A/Wisconsin/67/05, which was included in the 2006-2007 influenza vaccine. The
  seroconversion and seroprotection rates against this strain were 77% and 93%,
  respectively, among subjects in the 15 mcg group.
  
  Antibody responses were observationally compared among VLP vaccine and TIV
  recipients although the sample size for the TIV group was too small to support
  definitive conclusions. In this small study, HAI responses against the H1N1 and B
  strains were statistically indistinguishable and HAI responses against the H3N2
  A/Brisbane strain appeared higher in VLP as compared with TIV recipients. These
  results support moving forward with a larger head-to-head study of the VLP
  vaccine as compared with TIV.
  
  In addition to the HAI responses, although not presented in the poster,
  functional antibody against the Neuraminidase enzyme was measured in the sera of
  immunized subjects using a neuraminidase inhibition assay (NAI) developed by
  Novavax scientists. Inhibition of neuraminidase activity may be important in
  reducing the spread of influenza virus down the respiratory tract and severe
  influenza disease. Preliminary data indicate that the trivalent seasonal
  influenza VLP vaccine induced functional antibody that inhibits neuraminidase
  activity of Types A and B influenza viruses.
  
  "We are pleased with the results of this study, which support continued
  development of novel VLP vaccines against influenza and moving forward with our
  head-to-head study in the elderly population this Fall," said Dr. Rahul Singhvi,
  President and Chief Executive Officer of Novavax. "We believe that our VLP
  influenza vaccine has the potential to induce broad immunity against influenza
  including cross-reactivity against drifted strains which may emerge throughout an
  influenza season," said Dr. Singhvi.
  
  Seasonal Influenza
  
  Globally, seasonal flu infects between 5 percent and 20 percent of the population
  and kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people each year. In the US, the Centers
  for Disease Control and Prevention reports that 15 to 60 million people contract
  influenza each year leading to over 200,000 hospitalizations and 36,000 deaths.
  The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices ("ACIP") currently recommends
  seasonal influenza vaccination for children six months through 18 years of age,
  pregnant women, and adults over 50 years of age, and individuals of any age with
  chronic health conditions or who are at high risk of influenza disease. Based on
  the expanding recommendation of vaccination to new age groups, the growing
  worldwide population to be vaccinated, and the need of an improved influenza
  vaccine for the elderly, global market projections of seasonal influenza are
  estimated to increase from $2.8 billion in 2007 to $6.5 billion by 2013.
  
  About VLPs
  
  Virus-like particles (VLPs) mimic the external structure of viruses but lack the
  live genetic material that causes viral replication and infection. VLPs can be
  designed quickly to match individual viral strains and be produced efficiently
  using portable cell-culture technology. Novavax VLP-based vaccine candidates are
  produced more rapidly than egg-based vaccines by using proprietary, portable,
  recombinant cell-culture technology.
  
  About Novavax
  
  Novavax, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company, creating novel vaccines
  to address a broad range of infectious diseases worldwide, including H1N1, using
  advanced proprietary virus-like-particle (VLP) technology. The company produces
  potent VLP-based, recombinant vaccines utilizing new and efficient manufacturing
  approaches. Novavax is committed to using its VLP technology to create
  country-specific vaccine solutions. It recently launched a joint venture with
  Cadila Pharmaceuticals, named CPL Biologicals, to develop and manufacture
  vaccines, biological therapeutics and diagnostics in India. Additional
  information about Novavax is available on the company's website:
  www.novavax.com.
  
  Forward-Looking Statements
  
  Statements herein relating to future financial or business performance,
  conditions or strategies and other financial and business matters, including
  expectations regarding clinical trials and development of the 2009 H1N1 vaccine,
  the potential use of any data from clinical trials and other anticipated
  milestones are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private
  Securities Litigation Reform Act. Novavax cautions that these forward-looking
  statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties, which
  change over time. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from
  the results discussed in the forward-looking statements or historical experience
  include risks and uncertainties, including clinical trial results, which may not
  be sufficient for regulatory approval or may indicate safety concerns not yet
  encountered; even if the results of the planned clinical trial are positive, the
  data may not be accepted by regulatory bodies in other countries or the 2009 H1N1
  vaccine may not be approved by the Mexican government or additional clinical
  trials may be required; if approved, approval of the 2009 H1N1 vaccine may not be
  timely and thus may not be granted until after the 2009/2010 flu season has
  ended; sales of the 2009 H1N1 vaccine are not scheduled to begin until late in
  the 2009/2010 flu season which could result in poor sales; Avimex is expected to
  be responsible for sales of the 2009 H1N1 vaccine in Mexico, thus, the Company
  would be dependent on Avimex's sales effort; the Company has not yet
  manufactured, or relied on third parties to manufacture, any vaccines at a
  commercial scale; the 2009 H1N1 vaccine must be manufactured in a short period of
  time and will be subject to scale-up, validation and inspection; competition from
  already approved vaccines for the 2009 H1N1 flu; business abilities and judgment
  of personnel and corporate partners; and the availability of qualified personnel.
  Further information on the factors and risks that could affect Novavax's
  business, financial conditions and results of operations, is contained in
  Novavax's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which are
  available at www.sec.gov. These forward-looking statements speak only as
  of the date of this press release, and Novavax assumes no duty to update
  forward-looking statements.
  
  SOURCE Novavax, Inc.
  www.novavax.com
  
  
  Copyright (C) 2009 PR Newswire. All rights reserved

  Nov 02 09:39 AM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  Not strictly an H1N1 play, but this is a good example of how many of the larger pharmaceutical companies go about acquiring technology.
  
  (November 2) Pfizer eyes cooperation with Protalix, if it doesn't snap it up first.
  
  Pfizer, the world's largest pharmaceutical company, is considering forging a cooperation deal with Protalix Biotherapeutics and may even try to buy the Israeli company. Its stock is up over 5% as I am writing this.
  
  Protalix developed the ProCellEx system for producing medical proteins through the genetic engineering of carrot cells (Plants). This method is up to 90% cheaper than other production methods including the genetic engineering of mammal cells or bacteria.
  
  The new method avoids exposure to potential contaminants involved in the use of mammal or bacterial cells, increases the capacity to reproduce identical molecules, and makes it possible to quickly increase production.
  
  Pfizer is probably interested in Protalix because of both Uplyso and the ProCellEx technology. According to Protalix, the ability to produce similar versions of biological drugs through an entirely different production method allows it to bypass patent restrictions on many biological medications.
  
  Protalix's approach could make production of biogeneric versions of biological drugs possible at a vastly reduced cost.
  
  (ed: in other words, the technology lets them product generic versions of drugs currently under patient protection.
  
  www.haaretz.com/hasen/...

  Nov 02 09:45 AM | Link | Reply
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  • Freya: 
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  Now this a group worth joining, talking about Investments and changes in Technology.
  
  As Maya put it and User investigated, an, as yet, unseen mutation is from Bird to Every living thing. Medicago has the lead here.
  
  There is no way for The Traditional and Innovative Vaccine Tech combined to produce the Needed 2 billion plus doses.
  
  You can either use an M-14 or a Sawed-off sthotgun approach, before all is said and done if there is something in the offing, the company will go up.
  
  Just an Opinion, H5N1, bird flu, that's what Medicago is working on.

  Nov 02 09:53 AM | Link | Reply
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  • Mayascribe: 
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  Yes, User, mom did indeed hit the deck. Nothing broken, thank Heavens. The temp live-in help this weekend was nothing short of terrible. Mom is dinged up. I put her back on the O2 so she can heal those nasty bruises faster.
  
  Have to catch up with this column.
  
  Okay doing it...because I bagged a little over 2K already today day trading (ATPG). Bought in 4K shares @ $17.48 (when I saw a 10,000 share buy at the same price) and then sold at $18.00. Jag's making me happy, too.
  
  I WANT THAT $3850 BACK THAT I LOST LAST WEEK WHILE GETTING MOM A FLU SHOT!
  
  
  

  Nov 02 10:23 AM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  I am glad she was not badly hurt. Hugs to your Mom (((())))
  
  Freya - I really love Medicago's story... However, I can't get anywhere near a real-time price for the shares on my trading platform WFB. In addition, the listed price on Yahoo did not agree with the price on Medicago's web site. So I gave up, and sold all my shares. I am going to wait until they re-list.

  Nov 02 10:58 AM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  Pfizer, the world's largest pharmaceutical company, is considering forging a cooperation deal with Protalix Biotherapeutics (PLX) and may even try to buy the Israeli company. Protalix closed up 10% today.

  Nov 02 08:01 PM | Link | Reply
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  • tripleblack: 
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  • Stan Bruns Illustrations
  Karma transfer initiated to your Mom, Maya!
  
  As for stocks, this is what I have been looking at today in the pharma/drug area: BDSI is a company that I have been watching. BioDelivery Sciences International, Inc. American company, out of Raleigh, NC. Specialty pharmaceutical company. Has some interesting patented drug delivery technology. BEMA and Bioral (cochleate) drug delivery. It also has its own custom recipes for pharmaceuticals for "short term acute conditions", for pain and fungal infections.
  
  I like its top product, ONSOLIS, "a treatment for pain in opioid tolerant patients with cancer". BDSI (BioDelivery Sciences) has just licensed the commercialization and distribution rights for ONSOLIS to Meda AB.
  
  I have been looking for companies that can help with pain in the massive flood of boomers entering their older years and confronting things like cancer who have a delivery system that can get the job done in creative ways.
  
  It traded down to $3.95 today. I see it dropping more if the market goes south, though I consider it a good buy where it is now.
  
  I have also starting looking into CelSci (CVM) at $.92 per share. This one has been on a wild ride, and I will report back more data as I compile it. Seems like a potential cheaper stock to review, for those who like the penny stocks.

  Nov 02 09:56 PM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  (November 4) From Maya
  
  BioSante (BPAX) is doing a two-day presentation at the Oppenheimer Health Care Conference. CEO is giving a speech @ 1:00 today. - Mayascribe
  
  www.biosantepharma.com...

  Nov 03 11:20 AM | Link | Reply
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  • tripleblack: 
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  OK, User, maybe we should start tracking CVM (Cel Sci) - they have a H1N1 application via their LEAPS Program. They are promising an update "soon" on this subject.
  
  www.tradingmarkets.com.../

  Nov 03 11:52 AM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  CVM does indeed look highly promising. First of all this is a new investment play… This is our first Mutation Play. I will include the link to this information in the summary section of the Concentrator with your by-line. Well done tripleback!
  
  Here is a brief review of the play - It draws on the information provided in the link below:
  
  CEL-SCI is working on proprietary technology (L.E.A.P.S. (Ligand Epitope Antigen Presentation System) that potentially induces protection against illnesses such as the swine influenza. L.E.A.P.S. helps direct the immune response to the vaccine "epitope" (That part of a biomolecule (such as a protein) that is the target of an immune response). This play is much broader than a H1N1 play, its potentially a play that affects all viruses and vaccines.
  
  Virus's react to counter measures. They react by adopting changes to get around the counter measure (ed. current vaccines). In other words, it will genetically modify itself and circumvent the vaccines, as well as the Tamiflus and Relenzas.
  
  With that in mind, in late June, CEL-SCI filed a provisional U.S. patent application covering its immune therapy drugs (vaccines) for the prevention/treatment of H1N1, swine, bird flu, Influenza A and/or evolving mutants or variants of these viruses. Some experts believe that by the next flu season the swine flu virus will have evolved and/or combined with other viruses to create a much more lethal new virus. Which is exactly what happened in the case of the Spanish flu pandemic.
  
  CEL-SCI’s (CVM) preclinical studies have demonstrated that vaccines utilizing its proprietary L.E.A.P.S. technology provides the ability to attack mutations the moment they show up, as opposed to any other vaccines or treatments that exist now. This would be a major breakthrough.
  
  CEL-SCI’s CEO, Geert Kersten explains …"if I’m looking for a bad guy and I know that bad guy is going to undergo facial reconstruction or hair color changes, the only way I’m going to be able to capture that bad guy is by focusing on parts of that person that cannot be changed…" … "To boil it down to simplistic almost cartoonish terms, this thing (ed: H1N1 virus) has figured out how to survive the environmental conditions in which influenza viruses have never survived, namely heat and humidity. This is contrary to all of influenza history to see a virus surviving the way this one is.
  
  It knows enough that vaccines - ever since we started creating vaccines - are produced in eggs and it’s genetic code knows enough not to allow a vaccine to be produced in eggs quickly. This is not by chance that we’ve got this problem. This all gets back to a virus that has been around for hundreds of years and through hundreds of years of experience has morphed itself into something that is wary of being trapped or deceived It’s ability to have done what it’s already done suggests … a genetic code internal to the virus - that will allow it to adapt in ways in which we have not seen influenza adapt before. “
  
  
  biomedreports.com/arti...

  Nov 03 12:44 PM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  Jssss trip….. CVM is up about 25% since you mentioned it.

  Nov 03 01:03 PM | Link | Reply
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  • tripleblack: 
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  I will buy some more CVM on the dips. I hope this helps our group which is working this thread, User! Anyone who wishes to reach me directly can do so via my website.
  
  Also note their other very promising product, Multikine:
  
  www.ask.com/bar?q=mult...
  
  I am also looking into several others in the beaten-down pharma area, and will post back up after I do a little more due diligence on them.

  Nov 03 01:21 PM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  You know trip.... I was thinking during lunch that the common cold is a virus, and the reason there is no vaccine for the common cold is because of its ability to mutate quickly. I wonder if this new technology opens up a possibility to produce a vaccine for the common cold?

  Nov 03 02:00 PM | Link | Reply
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  • tripleblack: 
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  Yes, my thoughts precisely when I first read about this company and its products. The approach is, well, "elegant".
  
  I will always be a science fiction fan when it comes to the technology underlying some of these companies. I won't say how often I get an idea, look for a company exploring down the same path, and discover it is privately held...
  
  I am still watching a handful of these with an eye to investing, should they ever go public.

  Nov 03 02:05 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Mayascribe: 
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  CNN video on safety of H1N1 vaccine:
  
  www.cnn.com/video/

  Nov 03 02:16 PM | Link | Reply
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  • optionsgirl: 
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  Uh, oh. CDC said they're going to stay with egg technology- maybe for next 2 years. Per Garza:
  seekingalpha.com/autho...

  Nov 03 03:27 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Mayascribe: 
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  Sell NVAX before close?

  Nov 03 03:29 PM | Link | Reply
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  • tripleblack: 
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  All ears re. NVAX. Currently at 3.76/3.77

  Nov 03 03:35 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Mayascribe: 
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  I sold all but 350 shares of NVAX.
  
  Also sold (BPAX) for a teeny gain today, (about $80 on 1000 shares).
  
  Thanks OG, for that news. I'm not sure selling NVAX is a good idea or not. But that news...not good.

  Nov 03 03:42 PM | Link | Reply
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  • tripleblack: 
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  NVAX currently moving up a little, now at 3.78. I have been watching it this afternoon, its been moving upward for the last half hour.

  Nov 03 03:43 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Mayascribe: 
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  Got it----> (CALM) buying some next stop.

  Nov 03 03:48 PM | Link | Reply
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  • optionsgirl: 
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  Support is $3.43 from a month ago. Depends on your goal. I'm not into it as heavily as you guys are. Plus I sold $5.00 calls, I have .90 protection.I'm not day trading this. My average price per share is 3.83. I'm still safe but I may start a put position to hedge more. Put it this way, on a bad day this will fall hard. Now, it's in a channel. Look at short term chart. Earnings announcement is Friday. I'm not selling it now. But I might put on a put spread before Friday, just in case.
  Don't forget they just signed that deal w the Indian company. This is an international story, not just USA.
  
  
  On Nov 03 03:29 PM Mayascribe wrote:
  
  > Sell NVAX before close?

  Nov 03 03:48 PM | Link | Reply
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  • tripleblack: 
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  I will sell half today, and see what happens tomorrow. GOT to pay attention to how the feds jump on this one, though...

  Nov 03 03:49 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Mayascribe: 
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  Calm makes the eggs.

  Nov 03 03:50 PM | Link | Reply
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  • optionsgirl: 
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  Maya, may I ask, what's your exit plan for your 350 shares NVAX? You guys think the Fed will raise rates .25%? Or just talk strongly?

  Nov 03 04:20 PM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  Sorry for the delay guys, I am tied up with a project today.
  
  I think OG is correct, the play with Nvax is NOT currently US, Its Mexico and India, particularly India (large population play). They have a big deal going with Cadila Pharmaceuticals in India who has begun construction of a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility that will be used to produce pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccines using Novavax's virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine technology. Cadila is paying for that out of its own pocket.
  
  Nvax is running human trials in Mexico and India now... results should occur sometime in this final quarter....
  
  Like Maya, I have traded in and out of this stock several times. However, now that the payoff seems to be close, I am concerned I could miss a major part of an up move.. So I purchased a sizable amount today at 3.75 and I am going to hold it.
  
  For those of you that got out today, I will try to post heads ups in the trading comments if I see something happen. Of course I will also post if my furs get blasted by the flaming blowtorch again....

  Nov 03 04:24 PM | Link | Reply
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  • tripleblack: 
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  I just sold a big chunk of CALM. Cal-Maine eggs were profitable for me - sold week before last. They are the biggest egg source. I doubt this change will make a big dent in their sales, either way.
  
  I should break even on NVAX, I haven't held these long... Actually, I made $300 on the first half I just sold.
  
  
  On Nov 03 03:50 PM Mayascribe wrote:
  
  > Calm makes the eggs.

  Nov 03 04:24 PM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  (November 3) - CDC will stick with "tried and true" methods for flu vaccine production - M.E. Garza's Instablog
  
  CDC Director Dr. Thomas R. Frieden said his group is looking to stick with proven methods for vaccine production.
  
  While the director admitted that there are new technologies available to speed up the process for flu vaccine production, changes in the way the U.S. Government handles that time intensive process may not see a change for "at least a couple of years."
  
  
  seekingalpha.com/insta...

  Nov 03 04:30 PM | Link | Reply
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  • doubleguns: 
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  Oh Gee, I think the fed stays put. They do not want to spook the market. Since I always get it wrong, count on that .25%.

  Nov 03 04:32 PM | Link | Reply
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  • optionsgirl: 
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  I always get it wrong too. That must mean we're contrarians, lol.
  
  
  On Nov 03 04:32 PM doubleguns wrote:
  
  > Oh Gee, I think the fed stays put. They do not want to spook the
  > market. Since I always get it wrong, count on that .25%.

  Nov 03 04:35 PM | Link | Reply
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  • doubleguns: 
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  The metals surge today would indicate no rate increase too. Then there is Roubini and Cashin that say the market collapses if dollar strengthens. Are they just trying to manipulate the FED. Might work.

  Nov 03 04:36 PM | Link | Reply
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  • tripleblack: 
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  To OG, just my take on the deal with the G20, Bernanke and the Fed-Watch, I would say that they will try to talk the dollar up first, though there will be pressure to tack on .25 points. I would be very surprised if they did this right out of the box at this time.
  
  I saw where Australia tacked on another .25, though their situation is radically different.
  
  Norway added this past week, too.
  
  We will see what happens. The Euros are really unhappy with the weak dollar and their punk exports. The Chinese are trying to figure out the proper lever to move or control Obama, but he surprised them with his slap at the tires and steel imports. If their own currency wasn't welded to the dollar, it would be a VERY different scenario...
  
  I think Obama will get just enough support from the conference - a DARN short piece of rope - to "make progress" before it gets nasty.
  
  I personally think Geithner is on VERY thin ice, and that Bernanke will stand on his hind legs and shock folks this winter when he goes in defense of the dollar (though the world financial system will ultimately force his hand there).
  
  Just an observer's random thoughts!

  Nov 03 04:39 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Mayascribe: 
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  OG: Remaining shares of NVAX are $3.76. I'm operating from a day trader's perspective right now. I'm playing the dollar and the news. (Wish I would have played BPAX a little harder. My remaining 500 shares of the 1000 I bought this morning are up over 12%.) The only stock in my e-gamer I'm long on is Jaguar.
  
  Next level down support for NVAX is $3.42, set 10/02. High set 9/1 @ $7.47. Today it closed at $3.83. The question I pose is that why do I want to be in a stock that is down nearly 50% in two months? I may, tomorrow, go ahead and sell the rest of the NVAX. I understand it's a global play. But the global news involving Novavax has not moved the stock, quite the opposite, lately. With NVAX seemingly unable to sell their VLP technology to the US for two more years, my guess is that NVAX will be a stick in the mud stock for some time. Maybe Spain or Indonesia or some other country will come in and buy their technology? Looking forward to their earnings.
  
  For all NVAX owners I hope I'm wrong, and if the stock jumps, I'll be back aboard with a Cheshire grin on my face..
  
  May be the thing that's more important is how this week pans out.
  
  I still think Obama and the FED will try to keep the image of a strong dollar until the Malaysian meet. Talk big, keep interest rates flat. The ponzi scheme continues.

  Nov 03 05:30 PM | Link | Reply
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  • H. T. Love: 
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  Just finished looking at the 200 day charts.
  
  NVAX reports next week (11/9?) so depending on your view it's either time to buy, sell or hold now (nay other choices you find, let me know :-) But I wouldn't sell any covered calls at this level right now.
  
  Anyway, it has now visited the max low range I was looking for (~$3.65) twice in the last few days and bounced off. Looks like *maybe* a day or two for piddling around in this range (because the volume on price moves has not been strong - looks like trying to consolidate) and then should start to work it's way up again. It might wait until after reporting - which of course could crash my whole scheme. But I really am thinking that, based on the news we've had from them, that the report should be well received. Fortunately, they are not dependent on the CDC - a lot of their effort is in foreign markets.
  
  I'm looking to close my Jan covered calls and take profit before it ramps up again, but the GD market is being greedy and won't even look at anything near a theoretical value. And I'm not even trying to be greedy - just asking to keep 50% of the premium I took in.
  
  Anyway, keep in mind that I'm a total n00b, so keep a box of salt grains in hand.
  
  HardToLove
  
  
  On Nov 03 04:24 PM tripleblack wrote:
  
  > I just sold a big chunk of CALM. Cal-Maine eggs were profitable for
  > me - sold week before last. They are the biggest egg source. I doubt
  > this change will make a big dent in their sales, either way.
  >
  > I should break even on NVAX, I haven't held these long... Actually,
  > I made $300 on the first half I just sold.

  Nov 03 05:35 PM | Link | Reply
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  • optionsgirl: 
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  Very interesting perspectives. Thanks to all for sharing. HTL you must have an old soul. You don't sound like a newbie. But NVAX reports Friday-maybe the conference call is next week?

  Nov 03 06:23 PM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  I like HT's chart advice :) Its been very helpful to me.

  Nov 03 06:25 PM | Link | Reply
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  • doubleguns: 
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  I would love to stay and comment more tonight but I am off to my candidates house to eat pizza, watch the election tally come in on the internet and celebrate or cry in our pizza.

  Nov 03 06:38 PM | Link | Reply
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  • H. T. Love: 
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  On Nov 03 06:23 PM optionsgirl wrote:
  
  > Very interesting perspectives. Thanks to all for sharing. HTL
  > you must have an old soul.
  
  When I was very young, another told me I was an "old soul". I did some interesting ESP things back then.
  
  > You don't sound like a newbie.
  
  <*blush*> And thank you.
  
  If I don't sound like a n00b, I've just been lucky so far. I know that no matter how much I keep trying to learn, there's more to go.
  
  Maybe it's because I almost had a career as a thespian when I was younger? ;-)
  
  > But NVAX reports Friday-maybe the conference call is next
  > week?
  
  I think I confused my equities. CPST reports 11/9 if I recall. I'll have to check my spreadsheets to be sure (or my comments - I know I posted the real NVAX info somewhere).
  
  HardToLove

  Nov 03 06:51 PM | Link | Reply
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  • SAS70: 
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  HTL
  
  snicker> I hope you've got "protection". ;-))
  
  Good One
  
  I'll have to ask Maya about it.
  
  I think he was gonna turn it into a movie. You would think he would have no problem finding people on Wall Street who would be willing to screw each other. It's has to be the screwin capital of world.

  Nov 03 07:24 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Mark Bern: 
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  I really am interested in the CVM play. It sounds very interesting, not just from an investing point of view, but in terms of creating a vaccine for flu and cold. Man, that could be a real blockbuster for years!

  Nov 03 07:33 PM | Link | Reply
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  • optionsgirl: 
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  chickens make eggs!
  
  
  On Nov 03 03:50 PM Mayascribe wrote:
  
  > Calm makes the eggs.

  Nov 03 08:37 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Mayascribe: 
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  And eggs make chickens!
  
  SAS: Funny in a curious way that my dictionary reads this way top to bottom:
  
  prophet
  prophetess
  prophetic
  
  and then:
  
  prophylactic
  
  Man, that's freak'n comedy.

  Nov 03 08:49 PM | Link | Reply
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  • optionsgirl: 
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  Dr. S. Leeb today:
  The stock market rally fizzled as a breakdown of the ISM data revealed the pace of new orders, supplier deliveries and customers’ inventories all slowed in the month, while prices paid rose. So while the overall report suggested the economy is healthier than it was, key components suggest the recovery remains spotty, at best.
  
  There is much more economic data due out this week that could roil the market. For instance, the unemployment rate is expected to reach 9.9 percent, but a double-digit print will bring out the bears in force. From our perspective, even more important with be weekly jobless claims, which remain persistently high. Money supply figures, which continue to contract, could also set off alarm bells. Without more bank lending the economic recovery is doomed.
  
  The Federal Reserve’s policy setting committee is meeting again this week, which could also affect the market. No change is expected with short-term interest rates, but the wording in the policy statement will be closely watched. At this point, with the recovery still quite fragile, the last thing the Fed wants to do is get stocks running significantly higher. That would put pressure on Bernanke and company to start raising rates again sooner than they’d otherwise prefer.
  
  In fact, the Fed may offer a somewhat more muted assessment of the economy than it did six weeks ago in its last policy statement. The Fed could seek to engineer a modest correction in stocks. By doing so, the central bankers would help keep long-term interest rates down and make it more palatable to continue with its policy of quantitative easing, further aiding the weak banking sector.
  
  Whether we see prices erode from here or if stocks can manage another hurrah back toward the recent highs is open to speculation. One thing is certain, the deteriorating market internals tell us that the stock market is moving closer to its first significant pullback since the spring. Our hope is the correction will be limited in scope, but our fear is it could be far greater than most investors care to imagine.
  
  Looking further out, we see inflation as being a very real threat. And we’re not the only ones who think so. Warren Buffett’s decision to buy Burlington Northern Santa Fe, his biggest acquisition ever, is a massive bet by the Oracle of Omaha on inflation since the railroad is levered to commodity prices. The market is recognizing this by bidding up gold prices sharply to a record high, even in the face of a strong dollar.

  Nov 03 09:24 PM | Link | Reply
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  • doubleguns: 
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  WE WON!!!!!!

  Nov 03 10:15 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Mark Bern: 
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  DG - It's beginning to look like the conservatives are gaining a lot of traction in every race, even in upstate NY. Conservative principles are coming back into vogue. Maybe even a move back to Constitution!
  
  BTW, my partner told me about a rumor related to H1N1. He said that, when the CDC was asked about the possibilities of swine flu mutating to include some form of avian flu, they answered. "When pigs fly!"

  Nov 03 11:27 PM | Link | Reply
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  • doubleguns: 
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  Here in Cincinnati we have the flying pig marathon every year. The city is decorated with resin flying pigs. Guess we might be ground zero.

  Nov 03 11:38 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Mark Bern: 
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  Maya - You may want to print this thread for future reference. I think there is a great science fiction thriller embedded in here somewhere!

  Nov 04 12:24 AM | Link | Reply
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  • H. T. Love: 
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  VICL: Reported this A.M. Revenue $3.9M loss $0.14/shr
  
  ir.vical.com/releasede...
  
  HardToLove

  Nov 04 08:37 AM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  Some details on the Novartis (NVS) China Play:
  (November 4) Novartis Seeks to Make China One of Its Top Three Global Markets - ChinaBio Today
  
  Novartis (NVS) will begin a five-year, $1 billion China initiative with two aims: the company will dramatically increase its investment in its China R&D facility, and it will seek to make China one its top three markets worldwide. The comments were made by Novartis’ CEO, Daniel Vasella, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
  
  seekingalpha.com/artic...
  
  
  (November 4) Novartis to buy 85% of Chinese vaccines producer - User 283977
  
  Novartis (NVS) said on Wednesday that it definitively agreed to acquire 85% of the closely held Chinese vaccines company Zhejiang Tianyuan Bio-Pharmaceutical Co. for about $125 million cash. The Chinese company produces vaccines targeting a number of viral and bacterial diseases, Novartis said. In 2008, Zhejiang Tianyuan doubled its net sales from the 2006 level, to $25 million. The deal is subject to conditions including regulatory clearance in China. On Tuesday, Novartis had said that it planned to invest $1 billion over five years for research and development in China.
  
  www.marketwatch.com/st...
  
  
  Novaris is also a main supplier of H1N1 vaccine using the traditional egg production method, and says it will deliver about 30 million doses of swine flu vaccine to the United States by the end of November.
  
  www.google.com/hostedn...

  Nov 04 08:47 AM | Link | Reply
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  • H. T. Love: 
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  NVAX: Southwest IDEAS conference presenting Nov 11-12 at the Hilton, Anatole Houston TX. 35 companies presenting - NVAX is one.
  
  Schedule will be @ www.swideas.com
  
  John Mauldin will present during Thursday's lunch program.
  
  I'll keep an eye open to see if a webcast appears. Attendees include analysts, investores, ... yadda, yadda.
  
  HardToLove

  Nov 04 10:45 AM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  Backed up SF Concentrator as of 9:37 Pacific.

  Nov 04 12:37 PM | Link | Reply
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  • User 283977: 
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  Hi all, please use the November Part 2 Swine Flu Concentrator for new posts.

  Nov 04 02:17 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Mayascribe: 
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  Mark: Good idea. Maybe we should have my agent contact Hollywood and we all could get together and have a reality mini series, (while you were away I did actually come up with that one. "We'd put a beat down on CSI," I think I wrote).

  Nov 04 05:23 PM | Link | Reply