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Jack Haddad
  • MACD has turned bearish for all major indexes: DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P500 5 comments
    May 16, 2009 5:31 PM

    The Dow Jones Industrial was anble to hold on to Thursday's mild gains on Friday.  While option expiration is usually termed a "unidirectional&q... event due to many variables occuring at once, selling pressure will follow on Monday.  This coming Monday will be the litmus test that will either bring side-line managers into the market or compel those who have participated to finally take big profits off the table. 

    Personally, I"m betting on a downside, especially in the wake of the fact that the much hoped for "housing bailout" failed to tame the foreclosure rate; as we all know, in April, our country registered the worst foreclosure rate in the past 4 years.  That said, panic and fear will once again hover on Wall Street to shed at lesst 50% of the 2300 Dow Jones gains.

    The next support to watch is the 50 DMA of 7800.  If that level is breached, the 200DMA of 7100 will be a stretch.  Thereafter, look forward to new lows again.

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Comments (5)
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  • Maha Lesch
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    I agree with the technical analysis side, same results here. Another confirming signal of the coming downturn is the leading NYSE index of the NASDAQ, with a ratio of 0.28 that is below the 10 weeks average of this ratio. My only take is with the constant decline in volatility with no new big fluctuations I believe this new downturn will be “smoother” than what we have seen lately.

     

    16 May 2009, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Jack Haddad
    , contributor
    Comments (96) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Maha,
    I concur with you at large... The anemic volume in this 10-week rally has caused very minor intraday fluctuations; to most traders, uncluding myself, it has been a disadvantage. However, writing calls against the underlying shares have yielded quite a bit of premium while the shares mature.

     

    As the selling pressure commences, I expect volume and volatility to pick up significantly. Thus, intraday swings might be upon us soon.:)

     

    Maha, are you from Saudi Arabia? I notice that you have received an MD from there... I was planning to make a trip to several of the gulf countries to recruit capital last year... But I got very bust with biomedical research that I have to postpone the trip.
    16 May 2009, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • Henrique Simoes
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    I am also posting my activity in real time in my Instablog.

     

    I trade mostly Oil Futures and S&P Futures but I always like to read your posts.

     

    From trader to trader.

     

    Regards,
    17 May 2009, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Jack Haddad
    , contributor
    Comments (96) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Henrique. I wish if more memebers would post their trades instead of just writing an opinion piece about a stock idea that they believe in... Writing articles are informative but how does the information transcribes in dollar signs!? That asiad, I think it's best that people post their ideas by directly stating entry and exit points of a particular security.
    18 May 2009, 03:35 AM Reply Like
  • RiskReturnOptimizer
    , contributor
    Comments (572) | Send Message
     
    Real-time trade for you to consider -- time to go short on India banks -- ICICI (IBN) at $32 and HDCB (HDB) at $98. The one-time election euphoria is completely overbought! Nothing has changed to the fundamentals in India and nothing has changed in their banks.
    18 May 2009, 11:52 AM Reply Like
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