Jeff Pierce's  Instablog

Jeff Pierce
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I’m a swing trader of momentum stocks with a holding period of anywhere from a few hours to a few months. I run a number of screens to locate the strongest/weakest stocks out there, using technical analysis to determine my entries and exits. Trying to calculate the intrinsic value of stocks in... More
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All About Trends
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  • How To Get My Opinion On A Stock Chart 0 comments
    Nov 2, 2012 2:10 PM | about stocks: SLW, VMW, DDD, SPG, ICA, V, QCOM, JNPR, ARIA

    Once a month I try to do a complimentary technical analysis on any stock that those on my free newsletter are interested in learning my personal thoughts on. This does two things.

    • It gives me a idea of sentiment among my readership and if I start to see the same stock requested by multiple readers that tells me that it may be a stock to focus on.
    • The other thing is that reader gets an unbiased opinion on a stock that they are already invested in on where to take profits, or are thinking about buying and where a good buy level may be.

    Yes it takes me some time and I don't always get to everyone's request, but over time I would say everyone that has requested my opinion on a stock has gotten it. I've also gotten some very thankful emails about my analysis and that always makes me feel good that I've helped someone in a trade. In fact, if you've benefited in the past from this analysis any comments below would be cool to see.

    Below are a sampling of this weekends request as I thought everyone could benefit from this analysis and this will be something I'll attempt to do in the future. If you are interested in receiving my opinion all you have to do is be on my free newsletter and the next time I ask for stock requests follow the instructions (there are some minimum requirements, price, volume, is it trending) submit your ticker.

    Remember, the only way you can access this benefit is if you are responding to the email that is sent out to subscribers. I know when I'm going to have free time over the course of a weekend and I set specific time aside to answer emails. Don't randomly email me and ask me for my analysis as I will not have time for that. Blue are the reader question - Black is my response.

    How about Costco (NASDAQ:COST)? Given how it reacted to earnings my guess is this is going to roll over soon. See chart for targets. Chart View

    I have been stalking SLW for a good entry point for a long term hold. I started a half position at $38.09 and then sold today for tiny profit as I wasn't confident in my entry point and am not a great chart reader. Would really appreciate your input on this one. SLW is my preferred play on rising silver prices. I wrote about this stock the other day on zentrader. You may have missed the pullback as I felt it was close Wednesday evening. Was watching RSI 40(on daily) for a good buying opportunity and it nearly made it. Given how volatile metals can be you may get another opportunity, but it'll have to come early next week or else this sector has bottomed and looks poised to move higher.

    I would like you to look at VMW, thanks great work. This is a trend trader's worst nightmare as it's absolutely trendless when you look at a multi-year chart. I'm not even sure if you are wanting me to analyze from a long/short perspective, but either way I'd stay away. I see no clearly defined edge.

    I was wondering if you would be able to analyze the chart on SPG, a major component of the IYR. It has been a relentless bull for the last several years and I am starting to personally see some chinks in the armor of this sector and due to heavy profits. I am sure the funds are sitting one might be ready to see some real selling prior to year end. I would welcome your insight and comments on this if you have time. I believe in the near term this will see more selling pressure down to the $142-143 level, seen here. It's near this point on the weekly that suggest strong support. Now if the general markets weaken significantly, then all bets are off as to how far this goes. But if the correction is contained, I would expect this to bounce around those levels.

    I would appreciate an analysis of DDD - 3D Systems Corp.. I am currently holding after my recent buys at 33.04 and 36.60. First off I want to say great buys. Now that you held through earnings and investors responded positively you should see this return back to previous highs, near $44. That is an area where I would recommend taking 1/2 or 2/3 off the table as it's likely to form some negative divergence on the RSI, suggesting that the current pace is unsustainable. See chart here. It may seem counter-intuitive to sell after earnings were well received, but I've seen this happen where it rallies back to resistance before either stalling or hitting a brick wall. By selling you are locking in some profit, but you are keeping a small position in the event it does continue higher.

    Please can you tell me your opinion for ICA/NYSE for long entry. Thank you for your good will for help. I don't normally analyze stocks that are under $10/share or have this low average daily volume, but this is a special case where the chart is exactly the sorts of chart patterns I look for and strategies I teach subscribers in tradewithZEN. It's a very strong chart, and I think it'll have a pullback to $8.20 level, which would be a great buying opportunity. You have 50 day moving average support + bollinger band, and when you have that confluence on a strong chart, it's easy to see where support lies.

    Would love to get your opinion on Visa (NYSE:V). See chart for comments.

    Jeff, please analyze QCOM. Thanks! Any bounce in this stock will be just that…a temporary bounce, most likely bolstered by the general markets. the fact that we've had a lower high in September is a problem for me as it could be the start of a downtrend, however we need to see how this stock behaves at $55.50, as that is support within a rather large upward channel. I could see this bouncing up to the $60.50 level before heading down to test that trend channel support.

    JNPR - I have been short since the high 17′s. See chart for comments.

    Would like to hear your views on this stock: ARIA (ARIAD Pharmaceuticals) I have been following this for a while now and have been trying to get in. However, the stock had a great run recently and I hate chasing stocks higher. What would be a good entry point on it? If earnings weren't in 3 days I'd say NOW, based on daily. Let's hold off and see how it handles earnings. If you're not in this now there's no point in taking on all that risk. Email me after earnings and we'll reevaluate. If, and this is a big if this fell to $18 on earnings, I would think that is a good area to accumulate some as the weekly chart remains very strong. I have a feeling if it feel there it would bounce immediately.

    Stocks: SLW, VMW, DDD, SPG, ICA, V, QCOM, JNPR, ARIA
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