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Jeff Pierce
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I’m a swing trader of momentum stocks with a holding period of anywhere from a few hours to a few months. I run a number of screens to locate the strongest/weakest stocks out there, using technical analysis to determine my entries and exits. Trying to calculate the intrinsic value of stocks in... More
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  • March 6th, 2013 - Currency Analysis Update 0 comments
    Mar 7, 2013 7:17 AM | about stocks: USD, CAD

    By Mike Ber

    I'd like to welcome Mike Ber as new contributor to zentrader in the Forex markets. Mike is a currency trader who will be giving updates on 5 major pairs with support and resistance levels to watch, as well as price objectives. Below is a sample of his current daily report that was completed near the equities markets close today.

    EUR/JPY - currently trading @ 122.20

    Bias: Bullish-Neutral

    (click to enlarge)

    Commentary:

    The pair has traded in the 119.176 - 122.176 range. Now that it has broken above our upper range the next levels of resistance are 123.11 and 124.62.

    The new range is 121.26 - 123.11, where 121.26 serves as a support.

    Please note that above commentary is based on purely technical indicators. As traders we can't ignore macro factors that can significantly affect the price levels of all JPY pairs. During the last few months JPY pairs had big upward movements based on a promises of further monetary easing from politicians. The next round of catalysts of the JPY volatility is approaching.

    Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda, who has been nominated by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to become the next Bank of Japan governor taking the helm once current governor Masaaki Shirakawa resigns on March 19th. Japan's upper house will hold Kuroda's Bank of Japan confirmation hearing on March 11th. The following day the other two nominees (Kikuo Iwata and Hiroshi Nakaso for the vacant Bank of Japan deputy governorships will be heard by upper house.

    In recent Wall Street Journal article Mr.Iwata was described as "the nominee providing the "main pillar" supporting Abenomics-a combination of monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and growth strategy-argued that pumping more money into the economy and stoking inflation expectations were key to ending 15 years of price declines. "

    The confirmation hearings may prove to be a bullish catalyst for JPY pairs, because all three nominees support unlimited easing before inflation target of 2% is reached. We ultimately may witness a break of 95 psychological level for USD/JPY.

    Economic events that can influence direction:

    Date / GMT Time

    Event

    Currency

    March 7

    ?

    Bank of Japan Rate Decision

    JPY

    March 7

    12:45

    European Central Bank Rate Decision

    EUR

    March 7

    23:50

    Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

    JPY

    March 7

    23:50

    Gross Domestic Product Annualized

    JPY

    March 7

    23:50

    JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

    JPY

    March 8

    13:30

    USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (FEB)

    USD

    March 8

    13:30

    USD Unemployment Rate (FEB)

    USD

    USD/CAD - currently trading @ 1.0311

    Bias: Bullish

    (click to enlarge)

    Commentary:

    The pair has traded in the 1.0254 - 1.03045 range. It bounced off our support level last night, and after that it broke through our upper range. As of right now it looks like it is heading to the 1.3603. The 1.02557 level will act as a bottom support, and should produce a bounce if reached. The break of this level will bring further retracement.

    The new range to watch right now is 1.02557 - 1.3603.

    Economic events that can influence direction:

    Date / GMT Time

    Event

    Currency

    March 8

    13:30

    USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (FEB)

    USD

    March 8

    13:30

    USD Unemployment Rate (FEB)

    USD

    March 8

    13:30

    CAD Unemployment Rate (FEB)

    CAD

    March 8

    13:30

    CAD Net Change in Employment (FEB)

    CAD

    EUR/USD - currently trading @ 1.2991

    Bias: Bearish-Neutral

    (click to enlarge)

    Commentary:

    Nothing is bullish about this chart right now, it's very weak. We are looking for an entry to add to shorts or initiate a short position, but not now. The pair can rebound as high 1.32154.

    The pair is trading in the 1.29827 - 1. 30749 range, meaning that the lower range should provide support and expect a bounce at that level until such time it can break through convincingly. Right now the pair is at the bottom of the range, and if there is no bounce the next level will be 1.2890. If the pair is manages to stay above 1.29827 the snap back rally to 1.32154 can't be ruled out.

    Economic events that can influence direction:

    Date / GMT Time

    Event

    Currency

    March 7

    12:45

    European Central Bank Rate Decision

    EUR

    March 8

    13:30

    USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (FEB)

    USD

    March 8

    13:30

    USD Unemployment Rate (FEB)

    USD

    USD/JPY - currently trading @ 94.07

    Bias: Bullish

    (click to enlarge)

    Commentary:

    The pair is trading in the new 92.907 - 94.167 range. The lower range should provide support and expect a bounce at that level until such time it can break through convincingly. The same goes for the upper range as 94.167 should be resistance, and serves as our first price objective. If it breaks to the upside it will probably test 94.67 level, where it can run into significant resistance, and may reverse. Therefore, we recommend trimming being aggressive sellers near 94.167 due to overhead resistance and hold a small position for the next level of resistance near 94.67.

    Please note that above commentary is based on purely technical indicators. As traders we can't ignore macro factors that can significantly affect the price levels of all JPY pairs. During the last few months JPY pairs had big upward movements based on a promises of further monetary easing from politicians. The next round of catalysts of the JPY volatility is approaching.

    Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda, who has been nominated by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to become the next Bank of Japan governor taking the helm once current governor Masaaki Shirakawa resigns on March 19th. Japan's upper house will hold Kuroda's Bank of Japan confirmation hearing on March 11th. The following day the other two nominees (Kikuo Iwata and Hiroshi Nakaso for the vacant Bank of Japan deputy governorships will be heard by upper house.

    In recent Wall Street Journal article Mr.Iwata was described as "the nominee providing the "main pillar" supporting Abenomics-a combination of monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and growth strategy-argued that pumping more money into the economy and stoking inflation expectations were key to ending 15 years of price declines. "

    The confirmation hearings may prove to be a bullish catalyst for JPY pairs, because all three nominees support unlimited easing before inflation target of 2% is reached. We ultimately may witness a break of 95 psychological level for USD/JPY.

    Economic events that can influence direction:

    Date / GMT Time

    Event

    Currency

    March 7

    ?

    Bank of Japan Rate Decision

    JPY

    March 7

    23:50

    Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

    JPY

    March 7

    23:50

    Gross Domestic Product Annualized

    JPY

    March 7

    23:50

    JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

    JPY

    March 8

    13:30

    USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (FEB)

    USD

    March 8

    13:30

    USD Unemployment Rate (FEB)

    USD

    GBP/USD - currently trading @ 1.5034

    Bias: Bearish-Neutral

    (click to enlarge)

    Commentary: No change in our outlook

    The pair is trading in the 1.50171 - 1.52056 range. If it breaks to the downside the next levels to watch will be 1.48457, and 1.44941. Before that happens the pair needs to close below 1.50171 and print a 4 hour candle. (see chart above)

    If 1.50171 level is broken on the upside the pair can bounce to as much as 1.54445. Any move to the upside should be viewed as temporary bounce at this point.

    Economic events that can influence direction:

    Date / GMT Time

    Event

    Currency

    March 7

    12:00

    GBP Bank of England Rate Decision

    GBP

    March 7

    12:00

    GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (NASDAQ:MAR)

    GBP

    March 7

    12:45

    European Central Bank Rate Decision

    EUR

    March 8

    9:30

    GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (FEB)

    GBP

    March 8

    13:30

    USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (FEB)

    USD

    March 8

    13:30

    USD Unemployment Rate (FEB)

    USD

    Themes: EUR/JPY, GBY/USD, USD/CAD Stocks: USD, CAD
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