Jeff Pierce's  Instablog

Jeff Pierce
Send Message
I’m a swing trader of momentum stocks with a holding period of anywhere from a few hours to a few months. I run a number of screens to locate the strongest/weakest stocks out there, using technical analysis to determine my entries and exits. Trying to calculate the intrinsic value of stocks in... More
My company:
All About Trends
My blog:
My book:
zentrader newsletter
  • An Uninspiring Gold Chart 0 comments
    Mar 8, 2013 10:57 AM | about stocks: GLD, GDX

    By Poly

    The gold chart is hardly inspiring here, especially when we believe this is the 1st Daily Cycle. But that might just be "on the surface", because I'm seeing a lot of resilience in the tape and plenty of divergences. The character of this 11 day old Daily Cycle just doesn't have the feel of a final collapsing Cycle, so it's puzzling to see this indecision in the chart.

    I guess the reality is that a big rally out of what I expect to be a major low (Feb) has yet to take hold. But I also know that traders are always impatient to see a big rally after an ICL or Yearly Cycle low. Yes it's certainly true that the most common behavior for most new IC's is to rally hard out of the low. So when we don't see this type of rally materialize with good follow through, we immediately become defensive and expect the worst.

    But it's also important to point out that most of the big Cycle Lows, primarily those that mark yearly and multi-year lows, often exhibit very similar characteristics to this Cycle. For example both the D and A Wave lows coming out of the 2008 collapse had near 100% retracements in the 1st Daily Cycle. I'm not using this as a defense to explain this weakness, it's more of a valid observation. At this point, the best course of action is to sit tight, and let the Cycle unfold. There is an argument to be made for both the bearish and bullish case, so therefore it does not help anyone to push either scenario too hard.

    For now, I want to see a move and close above $1,587, this is the March 1st high and it would represent a Swing Low covering the most recent period. From that point, the next step should be a fairly quick take-out of the $1,620 mark and new DC highs. Taking out $1,620 from this point would be a very positive development. Again please note that I'm defining what we need to see in the "bullish case", so until then, don't get too excited!

    This as is an excerpt from Midweek's premium update published on Wednesday (3.06) focusing on the Gold Cycle from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly, as well as real time trade alerts to profit from market inefficiencies.

    They offer a FREE 15-day trial where you'll receive complete access to the entire site. Coupon code (NYSE:ZEN) saves you 15%.

    Stocks: GLD, GDX
Back To Jeff Pierce's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.