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As gold enters its 5th week of this Daily (and Investor) Cycle, it has done a fine job in keeping a low profile. This stealth like move is on track to put in a 5th winning week, its longest streak since the summer of 2012 rally. Unfortunately, a good portion of its "stealth" is due to a relative under-performance to past 1st Daily Cycles.
That's not intended to paint a negative picture on gold's Cycle. Only that besides a decent run from the precious metals miners, there hasn't been a lot about this performance to get me excited. I was expecting at least a solid test of $1,300, if not more, within this Daily Cycle. The fact that world equity markets took a good hit this past week was more than enough reason to see a rotation into the precious metals.
Fortunately, this remains just the 1st Daily Cycle and a young week 5 Investor Cycle. With a successful retest of the June Lows at its back, gold should now have a solid base from which to work from. Looking at past IC's, I see instances where the 1st Cycle was a positive but "under-achieving" Cycle. Many of these were followed with really impressive 2nd Daily Cycles. The point being that it's still early in the Investor Cycle and we should have a (time) cushion to allow gold to work itself higher.
In the very short term, some caution is certainly warranted. I see no evidence of a recent DCL and the timing is perfect for a move to a DCL to begin ASAP. Expect a 3-7 day decline into a DCL, although the decline might be mild, mirroring the tame nature of the 1st Daily Cycle to date.