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Jeff Pierce
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I’m a swing trader of momentum stocks with a holding period of anywhere from a few hours to a few months. I run a number of screens to locate the strongest/weakest stocks out there, using technical analysis to determine my entries and exits. Trying to calculate the intrinsic value of stocks in... More
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  • 10 Days Of Strength For Crude Coming 0 comments
    Mar 24, 2014 1:43 PM

    By Poly

    This is an excerpt from this week's premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. Now offering monthly & quarterly subscriptions with 30 day refund. Promo code ZEN saves 10%.

    The Gold Cycle might be confusing to read, but there is no such lack of clarity with Crude. The current action makes analysis straightforward because we now have a textbook Cycle low in place. Very few Daily Cycles make it beyond 45 days, and this slightly longer Cycle was likely compensating for a shorter 1st Daily Cycle.

    This deep in a Cycle, key reversals in price almost always turn out to be new Cycles. We have seen a solid Swing Low result in a clean break of the down-trend, and price end the week with a close above the 10dma. In addition, our technical indicators turned higher, perfectly supporting a new Cycle.

    (click to enlarge)

    With a 3rd Daily Cycle now in play, we should be prepared to see at least 10 sessions higher before we entertain the possibility of a Left Translated Cycle. With normal Crude Investor Cycles, we typically see just 3 Daily Cycle span a total of 20-24 weeks. Excepting the last IC, which was an extended 32 weeks, all recent Crude Cycles have been reliably within that range.

    My expectation is that the current 3rd Daily Cycle is likely to be the last of this IC. If that's the case, we need to allow room for the declining portion of the Investor Cycle by assuming a top in Crude by Day 15-20 at the latest. It is difficult to predict tops, especially since the last few Investor Cycles do not provide an overarching trend to lean on for support. Without a long term trend to guide our framework, we just don't know how deep the coming Investor Cycle Low is likely to be.

    (click to enlarge)

    Related Posts:

    Volatility Is Coming, But Which Direction?

    Speculative Buying Underlies Strength In Silver

    Bearish COT Report Fuels Oil's Mini-Crash

    Themes: Commodities, Crude
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