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GLOOM SEEMS MORE APPARENT 1 comment
China continues to show economic contraction, German Factory Orders slumped, Spanish bond auctions were poorly received, RBS had to bag a bond auction and the hangover from the Fed's lack of QE continued to reverberate through markets in "hissy-fit" fashion. In the U.S. ADP employment data met expectations (209K vs 208K expected & prior 216K) while ISM Services Data missed slightly (56 vs 57 expected & prior 57.3) making for little encouragement overall.
It may be that bulls are reluctant to hold positions ahead of Friday's employment report with the release coming with markets closed. This seems odd. Further, if QE isn't required now maybe that's based on better fundamentals being in place. This is what bulls should spin in the coming week assuming employment data is solid.
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Our model moved to a negative expected 6-month return for the S&P (correction). Fundamentals are better, but still not great. Ne effect of higher valuation, and high oil, are starting to have a negative effect on equities.
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