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US Dollar eclipsed by another reserve instrument unikely to result from calm deliberation

My guess is that the SDR (or any other surrogate instrument) will not replace the US Dollar as a result of calm deliberation - it will take another phase of the global debt crisis.

Only when policy makers are staring at the precipice again and realizing that the games up will they come up with a new global unit of account and store of wealth - as before it will probably happen over a weekend with an announcement late Sunday before Tokyo opens.

On second thoughts it might be announced in Shanghai early Monday before New York opens.