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PhD Candidate in Economics at George Mason University. Received a Master's in Public Administration from George Washington University. Majored in economics and finance at Washington University in St. Louis. Previously worked as an Options Market Maker/Trader.
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Bubbles and Busts
  • Russ Winter - The Central Banks Will Save You! – And Other Hooks To Avoid 0 comments
    Jun 8, 2012 10:28 AM | about stocks: CVX, XOM, COP, BP, TOT, E
    IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO DIFFERENTIATE within the commodities and resources sector because there is definitely a very hard landing and liquidation cycle under way in China. Longs of industrial metals in general should be avoided; however, some commodities, such as oil and grains, are less influenced by China. In commodities like uranium and solar, China is just getting started. Then there is a question as to whether a Chinese panic and capital flight will benefit precious metals [China and Silver].

    Read it at Zero Hedge
    The Central Banks Will Save You! - and other Hooks to Avoid
    By Russ Winter

    While I still don't believe China will reach hard landing territory this year, GDP may very well end up below 7% for 2012 and is heading lower. The commodity and energy sector have taken a beating over the past six weeks, which presents some opportunities for investors. As the chart shows, China only consumes just over 10% of the world's oil. Further economic deterioration in the US and Europe will push oil prices lower, but it's hard to envision prices falling back near the lows of '09 without another serious global recession.

    At this point, the US majors (CVX, XOM and COP) still look a little pricey, especially compared with their European counterparts (BP, E, TOT). These European oil plays offer dividend yields over 5%, 6% and 7%, respectively. Read the rest of Winter's piece as well for his potentially actionable ideas.

    Disclosure: I am long BP, E, TOT.

    Themes: China, Commodities, Energy, Oil Stocks: CVX, XOM, COP, BP, TOT, E
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