Seeking Alpha

jpmist's  Instablog

jpmist
Send Message
Retired Atlanta dentist with a specific interest in agency mortgage REITs and leveraged Munis.
  • The End Is Near! No, Really! 2 comments
    Nov 10, 2013 8:30 PM | about stocks: STPP, MORT, MORL, AGNC, NLY, WMC, CYS, TWO, HTS

    Well, it's been almost 2 months. Really didn't have anything new to add, but the landscape has changed now. The Congressional Clown show has finished another chapter in their magnificent incompetence and in doing so threw sand in the gears of data the Fed needs for them to decide when to start tapering. It was seemingly a done deal for September until it wasn't and the MBS market reacted by rallying. It's retraced about 35% of the April taper tantrum at this point and last week we got a stronger than predicted employment report that dropped prices back down a bit. So volatility remains, but the guys at Mortgage News Daily feel we're simply at the low of another trading range.

    The main news last week was that by now most of the agency mREITs I follow have announced financial data for Q3. As you can see from the MORT chart, the market didn't like the reports. AGNC in particular crapped the bed with it's aggressive bets on MBS rates in the tba market, then Annaly's new CEO didn't impress anyone during the conference call by raving at the Fed for not making her job any easier.

    On Seeking Alpha there was the usual wailing and gnashing of teeth but a new voice of calm, goes by the name of "Cash King" with some rational thoughts that we might be at the bottom of the mREIT carnage. Then there was poor Scott Kennedy who's spent days of his life trying to guess AGNC's Q3 number only to get blindsided by the awful numbers AGNC reported. Poor guy. Yet another bearish author Regarded Solution heaps snark and scorn on anyone questioning his take that the mREIT sector will be toxic for quite some time.

    In spite of my thin grasp of what the numbers in the reports actually mean, I did some quick back of the envelope scanning and came up with some numbers that lead me to believe that the sector has bottomed. All we need to do is get past the next Clown Show episode, and the long awaited beginning of the Fed Taper of MBS purchases for rate volatility to subside. Once that happens mREITs can spend less on hedging, expand their leverage and take advantage of the increased net spreads that are already showing up in their reports.

    There are a lot of terms I don't understand in those quarterly reports, but I do have a good grasp on some key ones. Book value I get and it's a pretty clean number - just add up the MBS you have on the books as well as cash, Treasuries and the value of the hedges. Currently all the mREITs are trading at discounts to book, but I won't dwell on that because that would imply respect for the mREIT market, the vast majority of who don't exactly know how the companies actually work.

    Another one is core earnings. This one's a bit slippery but it's needed to draw focus off GAPP earnings which don't work well for mREIT due to more stuff I don't quite grasp, but I'll take everyone's word for it. Core earnings has an actual definition that all the mREITs use, so it's a handy number. To me, it simply means how well the carry trade working. Cash from interest on the MBS notes subtract interest paid on the short term debt it uses to buy the stuff and there you have it. The number leaves out what's spent on hedging which is fine by me cause that's an opaque black box as far as I'm concerned- by the time we know how they've hedged its too late to do anything about it.

    Last but not least is my favorite, the net interest rate spread. This is another one that doesn't get too squirmy, the spread is simply the difference between the rate they're getting on their MBS portfolio and the rate their paying on their repo financing. Again, no hedging, but it's a indication of the potential the company has to generate revenue.

    I suppose I should also mention the leverage ratio. It's not a bad number but it gets tainted with mention of the tba market. AGNC breaks out leverage with and without the tba number and I don't know how to weigh that. I do know that without exception all the agency mREIT have knocked down their ratios in double digits. This is a good thing for safety, but a bad thing for earnings.

    So Charts and Numbers!

    I had to leave off AGNC's numbers which were negative and threw off the whole point of the chart. AGNC did end up in positive numbers in Q3. At first glance the chart isn't too encouraging, but 3 of the 6 companies showed improvement or leveling off. A mistake a lot of the mREIT bears make is in projecting the downward slope of the curves down to infinity. That's only going to happen if we have another 106 to 100 two month swoon in the MBS market like we did in Q2. I doubt that will repeat itself because the bond market has figured out it over-reacted to the Fed withdrawal from the MBS market. We'll still have volatility when the Taper is put in play, but it's doubtful we'll have a similar plunge.

    This gets better. Note that the extreme downturn all of the companies took from Q1 to Q2 have leveled off? This tells me the majority of the damage has been done. The bears are wrong again in projecting these lines down to zero. Not going to happen.

    Saved the best for last. This is a data-point that some of the mREIT bears don't want to even acknowledge. For most of the sector the net interest spread has increased from Q2. Admittedly, it's been confusing for me to see the sector get hammered every time rates go up. Last Friday was a great example, the ten year went up 7 bp and MORL got hammered down 5%. A rapid rise in rates is hard to predict and expensive to hedge for as we saw in Q2 of this year. But at the end of the day, once the higher spread is adapted to, the more money the mREITs can make. Particularly when all they have to do is hike leverage.

    These data-points are why I think the end is near. What to do about it will have to wait for another post. The market is still currently over-focused on increased rates harming Book value instead of seeing the greater revenue from increased net interest spread. Until the sector can show it can manage the higher rates while keeping BV level, it's not quite time to get back in.

    But we're close. The end is near!

    Themes: mortgage REIT Stocks: STPP, MORT, MORL, AGNC, NLY, WMC, CYS, TWO, HTS
Back To jpmist's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (2)
Track new comments
  • jpmist - I like your take on the quarter, Im hoping to get some time to delve into the numbers myself, but one thing that gives me hope is an MBS bought at 99.5% can be held to maturity and return 100%. even if the prices on MBS take a dive and hurt book value when taper is announced, if the companies can stomach some unrealized BV losses and the repo financers can get this as well and not panic, and the hedges can offset some BV losses, I think the higher rates and higher spreads will eventually even out the dividend and the BV should stabilize to some degree. Its not something that I've heard talked about in conference calls because MBS are trading at a premium at the moment, but if they go below 100% I would expect some CEO or CFO to mention it and maybe score some points.
    12 Nov 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Hey, DL.

     

    I think you're right about the MBS prices - http://bit.ly/MoVMIq

     

    Another benefit of the low premium is that there's less of a hit when the MBS is retired. Another number I scanned, but didn't mention was the prepayment rate. Prepays have trended down quite a bit for all mREITs this quarter.

     

    Thanks for your comment!
    13 Nov 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • $AI down 2% wtf? Up day for sector. Did someone downgrade?
    Apr 4, 2014
More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.