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Alexandre Kateb's  Instablog

Alex Kateb teaches economics and finance at the Paris Institute for Political Science, and works as an investment consultant for banks, hedge funds and institutional investors. He worked as a strategist focusing on emerging markets at a leading French financial company. Prior to that he worked... More
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Emerging Capital
  • Not the right time for Champagne : our Global Macro scenario for 2010 1 comment
    Oct 29, 2009 07:56 AM
    I would like to take this opportunity to introduce our 2010 global macro scenario at COMPETENCE FINANCE, a start-up company based in Paris which is specialized in financial and macroeconomic advisory.

    We are proud to serve the global financial community with a blend of model-based rigorous quantitative analysis and qualitative "big picture" thinking.

    Here are the main outlines of our scenario :

    • The global economy is slowly recovering from the worst global recession since WW II and the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression
    • The recovery will be sluggish for the G3 economies with high unemployment, soaring fiscal deficits and shattered banking systems for many years to come
    • The recovery will be stronger in emerging economies, but downside risks exist, with unbalanced growth in China potentially leading to real and financial asset bubbles with negative effects on medium term growth
    • Public policy will play a critical role in the sustainability of the recovery over the medium term (CB exit strategy, continuation of fiscal stimulus over 2010)
    • The deflationary risk is still present in some major developed economies (Japan, UK, Euro Area) whereas the US seem more insulated against this risk
    • Long term interest rates will be driven higher by concerns over the sustainability of public finance in the G4 economies. However, the yield conundrum linked to global imbalances will likely prevent any abrupt increase in interest rates (but a failure by the US Treasury to raise money at an auction could be a catalyst for such a worst-case scenario)
    • We expect the dollar to regain some strength against the other major G4 currencies in 2010 as the rebound will be more protracted in these economies

    This is an abridged version of our Global Macro scenario. The complete version with more detailed analysis and complete forecasts for a range of economic indicators (GDP, interest rates, inflation) as well as asset allocation recommendations is accessible to our clients.

    This presentation should give you a taste of our capabilities that extend beyond global macro analysis to cross-asset and thematic research, extra-financial analysis (carbon finance, SRI, Islamic finance) and financial risk modeling (e.g. credit risk, market risk)

    We welcome your feedback on this presentation

    Best regards,

    Alexandre Kateb
    Senior Economist, Co-founding partner at COMPETENCE FINANCE

    Check out this SlideShare presentation on LinkedIn. Click on the link below to view the presentation.

    http://tinyurl.com/yf6pv9d
    Themes: global macro scenario 2010 developed emerging economies dollar outlook exchange rates interest rates monetary policy GDP growth forecasts BRIC United States Euro area Japan China Brazil Russia India
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