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Next Week's Dollar Outlook [Video]

Oct. 22, 2010 2:49 PM ET3 Comments
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The dollar index is back to the price points it started October, after being trapped in the 76.50 to 80.50 trading channel that has major resistance from the 50-day SMA area as the next main upside target.

The consolidation has allowed support to easily hold, and has drawn in a linear trend-line that runs from the 75.30 low, picks up 77.10 support, and offers dollar bulls the chance to bounce higher technically. A weekly chart close above 80.50 will be a major signal that the dollar has based-out in the near-term.
Global equity trade has managed to hold support, albeit with choppy and overlapping trade during October. S/P 500 charts show a linear trend-line that starts at 1033, picks up 1133 support, and has 1180 as its inflection point.

A weekly chart break and hold above 1195 will likely draw in a solid test of 1210 in the near-term, with a close below 1150 likely to signal that a move down to sub-1100 is on the cards. Traders will be monitoring the strength of the inverse Equity/Usd correlation this week.
The Usd/Equity-Oil inverse correlation is in play to a 95% degree each day, and is something that will be monitored closely, especially in the commodity trading arena. West Texas Intermediate oil trade tested a 4-hour chart support trend-line at 81.50 after a sideways recent period of trade.

Speculative crude oil trade seems to have a lot more to do with short-term leverage than it does with global growth and demand.
Gold bullion trade has been held in an upwards channel that has solid looking support at 1300, and little in the way as resistance until $1400 is hit. It was stated that in the summer that $1400 an ounce would like be seen long before a test of $1100, and now that is in sight there looks to be little in the way of a test of $1600.

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Disclosure: TheLFB runs an automated trading program that is constantly one side of the dollar or the other, in-line with the detail posted in the article.

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