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Dominic Rodrigues
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For nearly twenty years I've pursued entrepreneurship through corporate development and investment management, enjoying professional experiences in several industries like aerospace & defense, biotechnology, environmental management, financial services, information technology and life... More
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Connecting the dots...Provectus Biopharmaceuticals
  • $PVCT: Moving On, Moving Up 5 comments
    Jul 10, 2013 9:36 AM | about stocks: PVCT

    Taken From Connecting The Dots...Provectus Pharmaceuticals (July 2, 2013).

    It's now time for the blog to transition.

    Let me start by reiterating my investment thesis. At a July 2nd closing share price of $0.64 and a market capitalization of $78 million, Provectus is an exceptional long idea.

    When I consider any investment opportunity, I routinely explore risk, reward and the potential and likely relationship between the two.

    From here, I think the company's risk-reward profile is very compelling, at a $0.33 share price on the downside with upside of $15-20 per share. This translates into a 50% downside/roughly 1,500-2,000% upside scenario, which for me is a sufficiently commensurate potential return for the potential risk I believe I am taking by owning Provectus stock.

    To be clear, the 50% downside scenario is mostly if not exclusively theoretical. I don't think it is likely. Perhaps better put, I think it's an improbable outcome. It's not impossible, however, because there's no certainty in trading or investing (just ask Long Term Capital Management). Such additional dramatic dilution, the primary reason the stock would fall to or reach that price point, essentially assumes the company, for whatever reason(s), has no choice but to raise tens of millions of dollars primarily for trial work in order to arrive at sufficient regulatory clarity from the FDA to reach suitable commercial validation through licenses with prospective global and regional oncology and dermatology companies.

    The 1,500-2,000% upside scenario is a tad illustrative. I've written about this price range before. So, just to be consistent, I'll stick with it. What this would mean, practically speaking, is I think Provectus' intrinsic value has more than outpaced stock dilution since I espoused this price range several years ago. Even at half that (say, an upside of 750-1,000%, or $7.5-10 per share), the stock's return potential still is more than commensurate with the risk one takes by owning shares from here.

    Time, of course, is important to any investment outcome and its ROI (IRR). From here, the risk-reward profile is very attractive in, say, a 12-18 month timeframe, and sufficiently attractive in a 36-month outcome assuming the theoretical dilutive scenario noted above where management raises money and runs additional trials to arrive at sufficient regulatory clarity. At $7.5-$20, even those who've been in the stock for 8 or more years (depending on their respective cost basis) should exceed in IRR (time-based ROI) the biotechnology industry's WACC, the microcap equity risk premium or the market equity risk premium.

    I think the stock's upside is much higher and the situation will resolve itself much sooner, but that's my own analysis and expectations.

    The wisdom of crowds has been very useful. The blog's most popular post is entitled "The Wisdom Of Crowds." The governing premise is that a diverse collection of independently-deciding individuals is likely to make certain types of decisions and predictions better than individuals or even experts. The wisdom of crowds should not to be confused with crowd psychology.

    I was first introduced to the company in 2006, which is when I began my due diligence on Provectus, and began buying shares in 2007. I've engaged key shareholders along the way, too. As much as I have regularly interacted with management over the last 4 or so years, I've also had the good fortune to communicate with nearly all large shareholder groups (with the exception, for example, of the Danish and Texas contingents). Their wisdom, or in certain rare cases lack thereof, has been useful. I've also had the pleasure, and in certain cases displeasure, of communicating with a number of smaller shareholders who also mostly have added to my knowledge. To all of you: Thank you.

    Although I had read stock chat boards where the company was discussed, utilizing these venues among others to learn more about Provectus, I signed onto SiliconInvestor in 2008 as "pvct investor" to test (so as to further refine or refute) my investment thesis.

    Unremarkably, the thesis' component parts effectively remain the same today as when I established them at the outset: The drug was (is) safe and effective, and could (can) be sold into a large addressable market.

    As time elapsed, the drug has proven more effective, and is presented with a much larger market opportunity.

    My posting on SiliconInvestor ended in 2011 (ironically in July), probably at least a year or more than it should have lasted, because the wisdom of that crowd was insufficient to refute my thesis, other than raising [what I believed then and still believe now to be true] non-fatal issues I already had surfaced: a non-traditional biotechnology company management team with flaws and weaknesses, and a less than typical path for the drug to regulatory clarity.

    I have classmates, colleagues and friends in drug development and oncology, so backing an non-traditional team like Provectus' was an eyes wide open undertaking. I think innovation, intelligence and smarts (pragmatism) trumps small company challenges. Nevertheless, I did not fully appreciate how such a regulated industry, as the biopharmaceutical industry, puts an immense burden of proof on smaller companies to the advantage of Big Pharma behemoths.

    In continuing to post beyond what time was needed, however, I realized then as I do now that furthering the knowledge of the community on Provectus' SI stock board had overtaken my initial goal/objective of testing (with the hopes of refining or refuting) my investment thesis.

    Later, in 2011, I started the "Connecting The Dots" blog to further test my thesis. A blog structure and set-up allowed me to more easily post my thoughts, comments, observations, analysis and conclusions as well as store information about Provectus and my work, all as I continued my own ongoing due diligence of the company.

    I also had another goal, which was to utilize a type of social digital media (in this case a/the blog) to measure company awareness, investor interest and other things; a measure of the wisdom of the crowd in another form or fashion. As an example, some Wall Street traders mine tweets to gain a trading edge. Blogging has provided me similar knowledge and in a different context.

    Interestingly, I posted about 38 times a month on SI (from December 2008 to July 2011) and averaged 46 monthly blog posts (from November 2011 to June 2013); about a 20% increase, but in reality pretty much the same behavior on my part.

    The blog's growth in readers and readership still surprises me. Using Google Analytics statistics, from the blog's inception on November 16, 2011 through June 30, 2013, which is about 20 months:

    • The blog has hosted nearly 10,000 unique visitors, received about 70,000 visits, had about 100,000 page views (although the meter on the blog itself reads 163,000 views), and recorded an average visit duration of more than 2 and a half minutes,
    • Unique readership averaged 10.6% month-over-month ("MOM") growth in 1H13 and 15.2% over the last 12 months ("LTM"). In 1H13, the blog averaged about 730 unique visitors per month (approximately 660 per month LTM),
    • The blog saw readership from nearly 1,800 U.S. (1,333) and international (529) cities,
    • Readership in U.S. cities has grown steadily, averaging 7.4% MOM growth (in the number of cities where visitors originated) in 1H13 and 10.1% LTM. Visitors came from all 50 states, and
    • Readership from international cities has grown steadily too, averaging 8.1% MOM growth in 1H13 and 11.8% LTM. International visitors came from 93 countries.

    U.S. and international city readership grew in tandem in 1H13. International growth exceeded U.S. growth over the last 12 months.

    (click to enlarge)

    Provectus' digital media footprint is not high, enabling the blog to capture digital awareness of the company and PV-10. Google "Provectus" and most other drug- or company-oriented terms, and the blog appears in nearly all top 10 search results returned (usually top 5). Blog readership, for all intents and purposes, is a proxy for Provectus and the drug's mass awareness.

    Google "Provectus." The blog, at this point, is the no. 7 search result returned.

    Not all visits to the blog, however, pertain directly to Provectus and the pharmaceutical use of rose bengal, which means blog statistics do not capture readership purely related to the company and PV-10.

    Blog readership grew steadily even as the company's share price fell, which I find interesting, perhaps somewhat unsurprising, and reassuring.

    (click to enlarge)

    I believe there is no refuting the science and technology anymore. As I wrote in my post entitled "For $PVCT, it's the FDA's move," it seems clear the path to regulatory clarity has put questions about safety and efficacy to rest.

    Provectus has fully answered the FDA's questions regarding proof of systemic properties and benefit for PV-10, thanks to Moffitt.

    I think any discussion between Provectus (Eric) and the FDA recently has been and now is about when to use PV-10, in which situations, and in what combinations with other drugs.

    The blog is replete with information about PV-10 (and pH-10) and my analysis.

    On balance, management's strengths sufficiently outweigh their weaknesses. In my post entitled "$PVCT's Empire State of Mind," I wrote the stock market, some/many in the Wall Street community, some/many potential investors and some/many existing shareholders do not believe in nor trust management, and thus do not believe in the data. If they did, they would buy more shares.

    These disbeliefs, the first (disbelief in management) more problematic and resulting in the second (disbelief in the data), have led to the obscuring of value that clearly exists in Provectus and that Big Pharma readily sees and very much desires.

    Although disbelief in or lack of trust in management mostly results from several self-inflicted wounds, these wounds are far from fatal, and there should be no doubt about the immense value management has created in its innovation of PV-10. I also wrote simple, angelic or divine regulatory clarity will transform disbelief in both management and PV-10 overnight.

    I learned very early on, and have come to terms with the truth, that management will do this their way. As I have written on this blog a few times, Provectus is a public company that really is a private one (a private company that happens to be public). Management employs mostly very capable, but some incapable, advisors who appear to have mostly guided them the right way.

    Management has made mistakes, some because they individually and collectively are who they are. I don't agree with all of their decisions, and have let them know when appropriate. Management will do what they will do: their strategy, their plan, their tactics. They'll do it their way.

    And, generally speaking, I'm okay with that. They're the horse shareholders will ride across the finish line.

    Provectus has innovated a drug that is a paradigm shift in the treatment of cancer. Peter told me it was fair to say, in his numerous meetings with key opinion leaders as well as regional and global pharmaceutical companies, there no longer was (is) any skepticism about PV-10 or PH-10.

    He noted Moffitt, for PV-10, and a leading research facility, for PH-10, had brought a lot of credibility insofar as their respective work on MOA.

    No one has seen a drug work so effectively systemically as PV-10. Not the FDA, not Big Pharma, both of whom have acknowledged this.

    In striving to continually seek meaningful tests of my investment thesis, there's long been no knowledgeable or material pushback on the drugs' clinical value propositions. It's now time to move on.

    There has been an evident shift in management sentiment. On the cusp of regulatory clarity, with whatever commercial validation should follow based on the specific clarity received, there has been a palpable shift in the sentiment emoted by the management team, individually and collectively. I noticed it over the last few months. Others have noticed it too.

    For Provectus, it's the FDA's move now. The race to the end-game is far from over, but the finish line is in sight: "It's like in the final leg of the/a marathon where management is past any last remaining walls and it's a sprint to finishing with form, purpose and stamina."

    So, the blog now transitions. Transition might mean I will blog less than I historically have. I expect my writing will be more sharply investor-focused, rather than merely blogging about all things Provectus.

    I've achieved my initial goal/objective for the blog.

    The value propositions that have sat on the blog's right hand side underneath the company's URL have been removed. You still can find the summary and individual propositions here -- summary, clinical, regulatory, business and stock -- updated as of February 2013. I plan to revise them after regulatory clarity is achieved, perhaps waiting until commercial validation also is achieved, or maybe just sometime in the fall or towards the end of the year.

    I posted my cost basis of my/our holdings in December 2012. We've added to our position since then. As is regularly updated at the bottom of the blog, I have not sold any of the shares we have accumulated thus far. I commit to blogging (within 24 hours) when and about why I sell, as well as what percentage of the position was sold.

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:PVCT.

    Additional disclosure: I am a large shareholder of Provectus Pharmaceuticals, have not sold any shares as of this Instablog submission, and also author the blog "Connecting the dots...Provectus Pharmaceuticals."

    Themes: Biotechnology Stocks: PVCT
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Comments (5)
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  • After reading your bio, I find it refreshing you are honest regarding your impressive degrees, entrepreneurial spirit, and credentials. If PVCT becomes a "hot" bio stock someday, seekingalpha would be remiss if they didn't have you write a series of articles about the company before anyone else. I believe the blog you did explaining game theory explained in the clearest sense why neither drug company has approached PVCT yet, no need to. Until FDA approval happens, why should others invest when they are earning dividends elsewhere or even in U.S. treasuries? Of course, they are betting on the fact they can time the market well enough where they may miss out on some of the gain, but should be able to cash in for the most part, a risky proposition at best. I enjoy your insightful articles and look forward to them in my followed authors list.
    10 Jul 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thank you for the kind words.
    10 Jul 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • I am sorry. I don't believe this sentence: No one has seen a drug work so effectively systemically as PV-10. Not the FDA, not Big Pharma, both of whom have acknowledged this. If this were true, Pfizer would snatch it up in a second, paying whatever management wants. I know, I know: they are waiting regulatory clarity. Maybe that's true, but I still find it how to believe (ok, that's you're argument: it's true because it's to hard to believe) that such a gamechanging treatment that has been around for over five years doesn't warrant any recognition. Jesus, just read the articles and press releases (and share prices) of promising drugs much less developed. I repeat: you said no drug. No. Something is not right. It's almost as if you are trying to justify all of the time you have spent in promoting the drug. But, obviously, even after the October 23 interview, you still believe, perhaps most than ever. When will it come to fruition_
    23 Oct 2013, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • I've spent nearly a month doing research. The clinical trials are very compelling. With a google search you can hear testimony from trial doctors, patients, and even see the before and after photos (albeit gross) of melanoma remissions.

     

    Essentially, the rose bengal 10% solution will be injected into the tumor and reacts only with cancer cells, causing their cell walls to become satiated and break down, causing a blistering effect.

     

    In addition, even cells not directly injected have a positive effect after injection and the immune response is triggered, boosting T-Cell count.

     

    This allows their immune system to bump up a bit, and the cancer cells eventually break down.

     

    Studies have included half of patients over 70 and even include treatment of patients who have had unsuccessful surgeries. One patient in the late stages of Melanoma was given 3-6 months to live and took treatment, living nearly 3 years.

     

    The drug does not have the side effect (other than blistering, which is part of the process of breaking down the cells) of chemo - patients aren't destroyed in treatment or lose their hair/don't become infertile.

     

    The drug is also non toxic, can be used for other cancer types and skin problems (psoriasis and dermatitis).

     

    So, from that standpoint, the drug IS something else. Now, will it be profitable to the extent that the stock will go up to $100? Unlikely.

     

    Does it "cure" cancer. No. It is a stand alone treatment but can also be used in conjunction with other therapies. No cancer drug will "cure cancer" that we can ever foresee because of cancer's unique behavior among types and among various body reactions.

     

    So it is a very, very amazing medicine that will help a lot of people.

     

    Researching the studies, the photos, the data, aside from all of the hype for the stock, will lead you to this conclusion.

     

    It is NOT "too good to be true" if you learn about how the drug works.

     

    Google: Cure for Cancer? Provectus Pharmaceutical PV-10 for Melanoma
    10 Jan, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Dr. Thompson, head of the trials at Sydney Melanoma Center in Australia (where it is the third most common cancer) said, "PV 10 has been a very useful form of treatment which Controls disease in a good portion of patients. It is well tolerated by patients and if it doesn't work it does not compromise any subsequent treatment, is well tolerated by patients so it can be done as an outpatient procedure."

     

    It is it a very useful and noninvasive drug, one without the side effects of chemotherapy or other drugs. One that is cheaper, easier, and less dangerous to use then some other drugs. Look it up for yourself.

     

    http://bit.ly/1cLS77n

     

    Furthermore, "I don't think it's going to be the answer to every problem in every patient but it certainly has great potential to relieve troublesome symptoms and deal with problems for particularly older people who might otherwise be faced with much more aggressive surgery."

     

    This is not a be-all and end-all cure for cancer but a giant step forward in therapies to treat people with numerous types of cancer and skin problems.

     

    What many people don't realize is that bringing a drug to market takes time and money. This process is close to being over and that is why the excitement has been generated. PVCT was not bought out and has come this far a loan. This allows them the upper hand as we move closer to getting drugs approved because they no longer need somebody else as badly as they did back in, say, 2007.

     

    Vorlon has been pointing out for months, this company has managed to get through the process having spent much, much less than the typical $500 million to bring the drug to light of day. Even if they needed to complete another phase, they are still much, much lower at this stage, cost wise.

     

    It could very well be that the drug is much more exciting and much more effective. That video was from 2009. The drug is being successfully used in outpatient procedures. As more on also pointed out, they have been able to test other methods such as injecting multiple spots.

     

    I think if you are going to believe anybody you should believe the credible doctor who is actually doing the clinical studies. And I'm willing to even let myself feel a bit more optimistic given newer testing success.

     

    This is just a very critical moment. People are waiting and uncertain about the news. For those daytraders the stock may drive them crazy. But within the next few weeks or months I think we are much more likely to be heading much higher as a stock price.

     

    I am just trying to clarify what is really going on with the stock here. Some bashers would have you believe it's "to good to be true". This mislead you into thinking that this is either some sort of trick and suggests that someone implied this is a quote sure for all cancer". No investor who has done some homework has ever said that about the stock.

     

    Is it a sure thing? Nothing is a sure thing including waking up each morning. But is it likely? Yes. It's likely this is a very effective treatment and will be marketed and sold and the stock price will climb as the company becomes more and more valuable.
    10 Jan, 06:06 PM Reply Like
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