4:45 pm ET: Today's market action confirms that the fiscal cliff is indeed weighing heavily on investors' minds. As little faith as I have in Congress actually confronting this issue, I don't think they're going to be stupid enough to steal Christmas from the folks who voted them into office. Constituents may cut their lawmakers some slack for taking the opposite side on certain key issues but they'll definitely not be so forgiving should they steal their children's holiday presents from underneath the tree. This is the key fundamental reason that leads me to believe that yes, Virginia, there will be a Santa Claus rally this year.
Besides the fundamental reason, the technicals are all looking bullish. Buying pressure has been over-powering selling pressure, the VIX is remaining low, and the Trin is falling. Another good sign is that the Dow Transport Index (DTX) continues to lead the rest of the major averages in this rally. The only sticking point is that the SPX is still in the Sell zone but another nice move up like today's would push it right back into the Buy side--yay!
We noted here yesterday that solar stocks looked to be bottoming and today they all received a nice follow-through on the back of some good earnings news from a couple of solar chip makers. Soft commodities saw some love as the coffee etf (NYSEARCA:JO) in particular halted its year and a half slide with a 4% gain (this is a big move for a commodity). FYI, this fund is very close to testing its all-time low of $32.50 (since mid-2008 inception).
Since holiday gift-giving is becoming increasingly tech oriented, it's worth noting the recent stock moves in this area. Breaking resistance levels today were online giants Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (over $680) and Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN) (over $650). Cyber-Monday saw Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) break $240. Should the Santa rally remain intact, these stocks should do well in the coming weeks.
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