4:00 pm ET: Today the market marched in like a lion and limped out like a lamb. The mid-day turnaround looked to be the bulls passing the baton to the bears. For the past few days we've been noting that the VWAP's (a measure of "Smart Money" activity) on both the buy and sell sides have been elevated indicating a possible changing of the guard. Note that there are only three more trading days left before the "Sell in May" phenomenon kicks in. Of course there are no absolutes in the market and, yes, this year could indeed be different--but I don't think so. I gave four reasons to support my thesis yesterday. Here's another one to add to the pile.
Yesterday, CNBC ran not one but two separate segments showcasing bigwigs at Goldman Sachs, both of whom are bullish on the market. The reason they gave was the same: Their in-house economists think the world is in a state of economic expansion which will continue to fuel not only our stock market but markets abroad as well. I don't know what numbers they've been looking at but I'm sure not seeing much that cheers me. Recovery in the Eurozone is tenuous at best and who knows what China's growth stats really are?
In this country, not everything is as rosy as it's being painted. Sure, the financial media has been touting that 70% of all companies that have reported so far have beaten earnings estimates but what they've been omitting is that overall revenues are falling. This fact indicates economic contraction, at least it does to me. But not being an economist, I certainly could be wrong.
Putting this all aside, the fact that two spokes-folks came out publicly spinning the same yarn has me thinking that Goldman must be building up a huge short position in the equity markets. Yes, this is the cynical point of view but if past Goldman dog-and-pony shows are any indication, I'm sticking with it. (I've always been suspicious that something's afoot whenever Goldman trots out Abby Joseph Cohen.) With that said, I'm mounting my soapbox and recommending that people prepare to batten down the hatches as May could get very ugly.
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