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Dr. Kris has two degrees from MIT because one just wasn't enough. Her life goal was to figure out the universe and having done that (at least to her satisfaction), she decided to tackle something even more difficult—the stock market. Applying the scientific method along with an insatiably... More
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  • Market Notes: Investors Nibbling On Soft Commodities -- September 25 5 comments
    Sep 25, 2013 5:43 PM | about stocks: WEAT, SGG, NIB

    Things are looking up for some of the agricultural commodity etfs (aka "soft" commodities). This entire group has been badly beaten down for the most part but some may be in the throes of a turnaround. One of today's biggest gainers was the Wheat etf (WEAT, $16.70) which jumped over 1.8%. This may not sound like much but this is a pretty big move in the soft commodity space. Although this etf has shed 38% in the past year, today's move does not necessarily mean the drop is over. A break above $17 resistance, however, would lend credence that the worst is behind it.

    Another big upside mover today was the Sugar etf (SGG, $61.83) which gained 1.7%. The stock has been basing for the past four months and today it was able to hurdle $61.50 resistance on twice normal volume. This is a bullish move and likely represents the beginning of a rally in this commodity. (FYI: There are options but they are thinly traded.)

    While it appears that investors are developing a craving for sugar, they are losing their taste for chocolate. Last week a topping tail was spotted in the Cocoa etf (NIB, $34.17) marking the top of a two month rally. Since then, the stock has fallen by roughly 4% and is closing in on major support at $34. A break beneath this level would put further pressure on the stock, likely forcing a drop to the $32 support level.

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Comments (5)
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  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for your take on the soft commodities, Doc. I have also been watching the fertilizers -- especially Yara out of Norway.

     

    BTW -- really liked your write-up on modeling Social Security options. Extremely well done!

     

    mj
    26 Sep 2013, 06:04 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    And and update -- cocoa shortages may start to kick in next month: http://buswk.co/1fqsr4h
    26 Sep 2013, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • Dr. Kris
    , contributor
    Comments (322) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi Mercy! I thought you'd exited SA and I was the only female left. Hope you stick around, and thanks for the word on cocoa. Coffee, sugar and corn are still down in the dumps. Coffee prices are so cheap right now the top of my fridge is full of coffee bags--been buying great brands for $5/bag. I've got enough to feed my Mr. Coffee machine for a good year!
    26 Sep 2013, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    No Doc -- I just took the summer off to deal with a couple of real estate transactions. Since I trade directly and often on foreign exchanges -- if I can't pay attention 24x7 -- I increase my cash position which is what I did this summer.

     

    I am now back to full time trading/investing, although I am finding less reason to comment on Stock Talk. Instead I find more value (for me personally) to engage on blogs like yours and on select articles where more of my trading/investing interests are aligned. I continue, however, to follow several folks like you on Stock Talk who are very much worth following!
    Many thanks for sharing your good work,
    mj
    27 Sep 2013, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • Dr. Kris
    , contributor
    Comments (322) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks so much for your kind words. It really is gratifying to know that one's work is appreciated.

     

    Thanks for making my day!

     

    Kris
    27 Sep 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
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