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Dr. Kris has two degrees from MIT because one just wasn't enough. Her life goal was to figure out the universe and having done that (at least to her satisfaction), she decided to tackle something even more difficult—the stock market. Applying the scientific method along with an insatiably... More
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  • Market Notes: Mining For Profits -- January 21  3 comments
    Jan 21, 2014 6:57 PM | about stocks: SEA, URA, CCJ, DNN, URPTF, UUUU, GDX, GDXJ, AA, CENXMF

    Market Notes: Mining for profits
    The recent rollercoaster ride that has characterized the movement of the stock market reflects the current tug of war between the bulls and the bears. Actually, what the market internals are showing is a rotation out of some of the previous high-flying sectors (think aerospace and defense, retail, and other consumer discretionary industries) and into areas that have been unloved until recently. We've been noting the stealth rally in shipping stocks, particularly the rise of the Shipping etf (SEA) which has gained nearly 50% off its recent November low of $15. Technically, the stock is in rally mode with further gains on the horizon.

    Metals and mining stocks are topping the new darlings list. Aluminum manufacturers, for one, have been drawing a lot of investor attention. Today, Alcoa (AA, $12.13) received an analyst upgrade with a price target of $15 (roughly 20% above today's close) citing a looming aluminum shortage for virtually everywhere in the world except China. Besides Alcoa, the other notable gainers in this space today were Century Aluminum (CENX, $12.24) and Alumina (AWC, $4.62). Century Aluminum was also favorably noted in the analyst's review and judging from its chart, it could take a run to its next resistance level at $20--that's 60% above today's close.

    The second mining group that is beginning to see a lot of inflow is uranium. Today, shares of the Uranium etf (URA, $16.56) jumped over 4%, breaking out of a four and a half month base on over seven times normal volume. It was helped by the 5% moves in its top three constituents--Cameco (CCJ, $23.08--which broke out to a new yearly high), Denison Mines (DNN, $1.39), and Uranium Participation Corp (URPTF, $5.25). These three stocks together comprise nearly 45% of URA's holdings. The other big mover in this space was Energy Fuels (UUUU, $7.93) which exploded through $7 resistance gaining 17% on the day alone! On a purely technical basis, Cameco and Energy Fuels sport the most bullish charts.

    The last group getting a lift is the gold miners, especially the junior miners. Both the Gold Mining etf (GDX, $23.70, +1.6%) and the Junior Gold Miner etf (GDXJ, $37.98, +3.8%) have been rising off recent lows and today they broke near-term resistance levels on heavier than normal volume. Could this be the beginning of the next gold rush?

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Comments (3)
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  • Rawenergy
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
    Nice catch on the move out of consolidation on SEA as well as on your prior comments about it! Minerals action does certainly suggest accumulation, and even recent swing moves in many of the energy stocks after pullbacks suggest rotation into "hard stuff" could be underway.
    23 Jan, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • Dr. Kris
    , contributor
    Comments (314) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Raw: It appears to that way, though Nat Gas was today's commodity winner with $UNG breaking out.
    23 Jan, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • Rawenergy
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
    Yes, never underestimate the trading mentality of a cold NYC trader! The oilier names in the independent oil and gas space ($ROSE, $OAS, $LPI and some others) have also been among the better recent performers on pullbacks to moving average supports. For now they might be classified more as potential swing trades or bounces than long term holds, at least until short term trendlines are broken to the upside It may be that rumors of breakdowns or tensions regarding the Iranian nuclear talks helped juice these today. But thanks for pointing out the other hard asset setups!
    23 Jan, 01:46 AM Reply Like
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