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Dr. Kris
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Dr. Kris hails from the land o' lakes, beer, bratwurst, and Bucky Badger. She traded in her cheese hat for a propeller beanie and has never looked back. She has two degrees from MIT because one just wasn't enough. Her life goal was to figure out the universe and having done that (at least to her... More
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  • Intraday Market Notes & Observations -- June 21 2 comments
    Jun 21, 2012 2:39 PM | about stocks: OIL, USO, GLD, IAU, JJU, LD, JJM

    2:20 pm ET: Weak economic data on both the homefront and globally plus a note out from Goldman Sachs telling clients to short the S&P 500 down to 1285 was the one-two punch that knocked the major averages off their recent rally. Yesterday's risk-on trade (due to the Fed extending operation twist) has flipped sides to the risk-off trade, meaning that the greenback, Treasuries, and investment grade US bonds are gaining against domestic and foreign stocks, foreign bonds and currencies, and commodities. Hit the hardest today are the base metals (aluminum (JJU), lead (LD), and the base metal ETF (JJM)) which are all making fresh lows. Also getting punched in the solar plexus are gold (GLD, IAU)and oil (OIL, USO) both of which have shed more than 2% of their value.

    All sectors are trading in the red and why not? The negative VWAPs are the highest I've seen in quite some time and the Trin is solidly in bear territory. But is now really a good time to short the market, even with the top investment bank advising us to do so? I think that one day does not a correction make. Although the SPX has just dropped back into the Sell zone (based on my in-house proprietary indicator), the VIX is still trading under 20. And before I put my cold, hard cash on the line, I like to have all my augurs line up. I will wait the extra day or two for VIX confirmation and I don't mind doing so, even if it comes at the expense of lowering my potential return. Sure, I may be forced to get in at a lower price but my profit shortfall is more than made up for by the increase in my trade confidence and, for me, that's one trade-off I'm willing to take.

    In the stock market--as in life--there's always a trade-off.

    Stocks: OIL, USO, GLD, IAU, JJU, LD, JJM
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  • Bob de'Long
    , contributor
    Comments (701) | Send Message
    You got me on this one; I didn't know augur could be a noun. Doctor K, the augur. Not sure I like the sound of that.


    Cassandra or Kassandra fits better. She was so beautiful that she was granted the gift of prophecy.


    Doctor K, Kassandra, reborn.


    Your bearishness is pretty frighting;
    worse than thunder and lightening.


    Que sera sera,
    21 Jun 2012, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Dr. Kris
    , contributor
    Comments (380) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Bob-san,


    Actually, I'm not being bearish--I'm being prudent and waiting for further bearish confirmation before even thinking of shorting the market as Goldman Sachs urged its clients to do today. Even with everyone predicting a global slowdown (Marc Faber sets the likelihood of a global recession at 100% by the end of the year), I'm one of those "show-me" people who actually needs to see physical proof in the form of declining stock charts. People can be wrong, but numbers don't lie.


    And the word "augur" can be used as a noun, although I did stretch the meaning a bit. I was trying to avoid using the lame "ducks in a row" metaphor.


    Bullish? Bearish?
    Words I detest!
    Don't you know that
    prudence is best?


    Dr. K
    22 Jun 2012, 01:39 AM Reply Like
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