A CNN poll late last week revealed that 48% of those surveyed in the general population believe that the US will be in a depression within a year. This is a higher percentage than at any time during the last recession or any other, and will likely only get worse should there be further declines in the real estate and stock markets or rise in unemployment. The CNN finding contrasts sharply with the news agency’s recent survey of leading economists whose consensus now puts the chance of a recession at 15 percent.
This is an amazing divergence of opinion between the general populace and the eggheads. Is growth possible against so much negative sentiment, regardless of all the other factors weighing down on the economy? Although I believe strongly in the power of scientific reasoning, it seems doubtful sometimes whether Economics, the dismal whatever it is, really employs any real science at all. Is polling economists really more fruitful than asking a troupe of monkeys? Will they get it completely wrong again? We are about to find out.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.